Canada’s 43rd Election Results & Analysis

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Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pondering wrote:

I love my province and I don't consider us any more racist than other areas of the country. I always believed that in the end Singh's turban would prevent him from winning not only in Quebec but across the country. Some of it is racism but some of it is also just mistrust of the unknown and unfamiliar unless you want to start calling newborn babies racists. 

His election as leader of the NDP restored some of my faith in mankind. It is to the credit of the NDP that he was elected. 

His election also moved the party gently to the left. The NDP has now come out clearly against TM and made climate change and income inequality central themes. Singh has branded the party for the future. 

The Conservatives are saying they had a two election plan all along therefore they are on track. They won 34% of the popular vote. That still leaves 66% voting for other parties most of which are more progressive. Bernier didn't even win his own seat. That is cause for celebration. 

I'm disappointed in the NDP showing but I still believe the future will see a reversal in NDP fortunes if they continue to focus on climate change and income inequality. 

Why do you keep saying "the NDP should focus on climate change and income inequality", as though the rest of us didn't agree with that?

A strong alliance with the social movements would have given the NDP precisely that emphasis.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

josh wrote:

PPC had 1.6%, and less than 300,000 votes.

Still too much IMO. They were polling at 5% I mistook that as their share of votes.

Misfit Misfit's picture

In the darkest depths of rural Saskatchewan last night which went solidly blue, I asked my little 9 year old nephew who he likes as a political leader? He told me that all the kids at school like that man with the long beard and the colourful thing on his head. He said that is who everyone is cheering for in his class.

If we get rid of Jagmeet Singh because of this election result where we still have party status  and by a very comfortable margin to boot then we will be making the single greatest mistake in our party's history.

Quebec rejected Maxime Bernier. 

Let's build from this.

bekayne

One uncalled race left: Kitchener-Conestoga, where Harold Albrecht is behind the Liberal by nearly 300

Edit: and race has just been called, Liberal pickup.

nicky

Some fun facts:

Combining the Green and NDP votes would have led to 9 more seatrs, 8 for the NDP and Guelph for the Greens.

The Cons won 15 seats by less than the Green vote.

The FPTP system ensures that most Canadians are prepresented by an MP they voted against. Only 112 MPS obtained more than 50% in their ridings  (48 Libs, 50 Cons, 12 Bloc and 2 NDP). 226 did not.

Pondering

Ken Burch wrote:

I'm disappointed in the NDP showing but I still believe the future will see a reversal in NDP fortunes if they continue to focus on climate change and income inequality. 

Why do you keep saying "the NDP should focus on climate change and income inequality", as though the rest of us didn't agree with that?

A strong alliance with the social movements would have given the NDP precisely that emphasis.

Because there seems to be a lot of demand for the NDP to speak out more on foreign affairs and all sorts of other issues. The Leap Manifesto began with romantic declarations about indigenous peoples not climate change or the economy. 

Social movements are by their nature evangelical about whatever cause it is they are centred around. "Balance" isn't a primary concern. If the NDP affiliates itself with social movements they become a political party in name only with no chance of election. 

In my opinion the work of a political party is to get elected then fulfil the responsibilities of government. The election period is about presenting what the party would do differently from the other parties on issues that will impact me or my community directly. 

Once elected the party has an opportunity to reflect their guiding principles on whatever issues they are faced with. To not preach about indigenous peoples but to act in the true spirit of reconcilliation. To be a voice for peace on the world stage. To condemn acts of violence against helpless populations and the distruction of public infrastructure. To negotiate trade deals that benefit workers. 

I do agree with you that the party has to be more vocal about taking progressive positions on current events as they happen but not just condemnation of current government policy. I liked Singh's response that he doesn't know what he would do about TM other than not expanding it because he didn't have all the figures on it. Even so in general I want to know what the party would do if it were in power. 

I agree with you that Singh should have spoken up sooner about taxing wealth and pharmacare and climate change.

I think social movements should do more to support political parties.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP will never win Ontario. The people of Southern Ontario are well off and instinctively know that our exploitative system is what makes them do so well. They don't want change.

The only regions with a plurality of actual progressive voters is Vancouver Island. After most federal elections when I watch the Ontario results come in I get to thinking of separating from this right wing political entity we find ourselves as a small minority in.

DistinguishedFlyer

nicky wrote:

Some fun facts:

Combining the Green and NDP votes would have led to 9 more seatrs, 8 for the NDP and Guelph for the Greens.

The Cons won 15 seats by less than the Green vote.

The FPTP system ensures that most Canadians are prepresented by an MP they voted against. Only 112 MPS obtained more than 50% in their ridings  (48 Libs, 50 Cons, 12 Bloc and 2 NDP). 226 did not.

 

To compare, the average vote share of elected MPs in 2015 was 48.6% - 51.2% for Tories, 49.8% for Liberals, 38.5% for New Democrats & 34.2% for Bloquistes.

Figures for 2011 were 50.4% overall, 54.4% for Tories, 47.3% for New Democrats, 41.2% for Liberals & 34.9% for Bloquistes.

Debater

bekayne wrote:

One uncalled race left: Kitchener-Conestoga, where Harold Albrecht is behind the Liberal by nearly 300

Edit: and race has just been called, Liberal pickup.

That's a nice surprise.  Not many people expected right-winger Harold Albrecht to go down.  He's held that seat for a while.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pondering wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

I'm disappointed in the NDP showing but I still believe the future will see a reversal in NDP fortunes if they continue to focus on climate change and income inequality. 

Why do you keep saying "the NDP should focus on climate change and income inequality", as though the rest of us didn't agree with that?

A strong alliance with the social movements would have given the NDP precisely that emphasis.

Because there seems to be a lot of demand for the NDP to speak out more on foreign affairs and all sorts of other issues. The Leap Manifesto began with romantic declarations about indigenous peoples not climate change or the economy. 

Social movements are by their nature evangelical about whatever cause it is they are centred around. "Balance" isn't a primary concern. If the NDP affiliates itself with social movements they become a political party in name only with no chance of election. 

In my opinion the work of a political party is to get elected then fulfil the responsibilities of government. The election period is about presenting what the party would do differently from the other parties on issues that will impact me or my community directly. 

Once elected the party has an opportunity to reflect their guiding principles on whatever issues they are faced with. To not preach about indigenous peoples but to act in the true spirit of reconcilliation. To be a voice for peace on the world stage. To condemn acts of violence against helpless populations and the distruction of public infrastructure. To negotiate trade deals that benefit workers. 

I do agree with you that the party has to be more vocal about taking progressive positions on current events as they happen but not just condemnation of current government policy. I liked Singh's response that he doesn't know what he would do about TM other than not expanding it because he didn't have all the figures on it. Even so in general I want to know what the party would do if it were in power. 

I agree with you that Singh should have spoken up sooner about taxing wealth and pharmacare and climate change.

I think social movements should do more to support political parties.

If we learned anything from these results, it's that the NDP needs to be, in a way, evangelical in its approach to the voters.  It needs to focus, first of all, on those who currently DON'T vote, not on trying to switch over people who are hostile to the party's core values.  It needs to be able to send the message to those  who are non-voters, or who vote for parties whose agendas are against their own self-interest, as do the plurality of low-income voters who seem to have voted Conservative-as well as those who vote for minor Left parties or the Greens on "anti-establishment" grounds, that while the Cons and the Liberals are the parties of the dreary, nothing-can-be-done status quo, the NDP offers actual hope, offers ideas that address the needs and the dreams of these people-that it's a party which will work to make a real differences in their lives and IN life itself.  

As to foreign policy...well, one of the things that comes into the issues of climate justice and income inequality IS, in effect foreign policy and the use of military force.  What Canada supports in the rest of the world affects the climate and affects the income levels people have.  The way Canada causes other people to be treated in the world affects how people are treated in the world.  The climate is affected by which regimes Canada allies itself or invades in the rest of the world.  Every war Canada has been involved with in the world in particular, and most recently in the unending wars in the Arab/Muslim world, has been an environmental disaster and has swallowed the resources which might have been used to address income inequality and climate issues at home.

The NDP can't work for transformational change if it stops its agenda of change at water's edge, at the Arctic Sea, and at the southern border.  A party of change must be internationalist, and beyond the need for territorial self-defense against external aggression, it should be as non-militarist as possible-not in the sense of personal  hostility to members of the service, something none of us should feel, but in the sense of recognizing that the use of military force can no longer make a positive difference in the lives of the many.  The work of ending war is directly connected to the work of addressing income inequality and climate change, as is the work of addressing the historic and continuing injustices visited on Indigenous Canadians, especially since there is a long-standing fight on the part of settler-capitalists to steal extractive resources on unceded Indigenous lands, and since a just and progressive future for Canada as a whole will not be built if Indigenous culture is not validated. and if wealth stolen by expropriating the wealth of Indigenous lands in the past is not used to revive and revere those cultures, and grant "parity of esteem" to Indigenous cultures, those comments about Indigenous cultures in the Leap are worth endorsing.  It's not as though those comments do anyone any harm.  And it's not as though the NDP would ever win the votes of people whose attitude was "THOSE people need to just 'move on' and live like the rest of us" regarding Indigenous peoples.

And the results of 2015 and 2019 prove that it doesn't win votes for the NDP to reduce its strategy to trying to get elected by reassuring people to its right that it's not threatening, and to make it clear that the party's program of change will be as limited as possible.