Canada will shortly have Two NDP Governments - Who will make it Three?

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NorthReport
Canada will shortly have Two NDP Governments - Who will make it Three?

Both British Columbia (in a few weeks) and Alberta have Social Democratic or NDP Governments - Which Government (Federal or Provincial) has the best opportunity to making it three?

 

NorthReport

Could Kinder Morgan be the catalyst that eventually brings down the Trudeau regime to be replaced by a federal NDP government if the NDP members make the correct leadership choice to replace Tom?  

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

https://dogwoodbc.ca/best-times-worst-times/

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Could Kinder Morgan be the catalyst that eventually brings down the Trudeau regime to be replaced by a federal NDP government if the NDP members make the correct leadership choice to replace Tom?  

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

https://dogwoodbc.ca/best-times-worst-times/

That's the same website that says Rachel Notley is part of the "deep state"

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I know it's a sad, Canadian thing to get all excited whenever we get noticed somehow, but still... we're represented in the "deep state"?  Aww, yisss!

That said, the poster boy for the deep state has always been a Canadian.

apparently, he doesn't even smoke IRL!

CanadaApple

Next Provincial Elections are next year are Ontario, New Brunswick and Quebec. I dont think the NDP will be running candidates in Quebec though so that leaves the other two. NB is currently leaderless and polling at 15% so that seems unlikely. Ontario NDP are currently polling at 22% so they might have a shot.   

voice of the damned

NorthReport wrote:

Could Kinder Morgan be the catalyst that eventually brings down the Trudeau regime to be replaced by a federal NDP government if the NDP members make the correct leadership choice to replace Tom?  

So, all the Liberal voters in the last election who didn't care that Trudeau was pro-pipeline are suddenly gonna consider it a deal-breaker?  

robbie_dee
voice of the damned

While I don't agree with that assessment of the Ontario government's ideology, I think it's important for progressives to consider that a huge section of the public DOES regard people like Wynne and Trudeau as left-wing, and loves or hates them based on what they(the voters) think of the left in general.

This relates to the question I raised in my previous post on this thread, about why pipelines would suddenly be such a deal-breaker for Liberal voters. If JT could run on a pro-pipeline platform in 2015, and STILL manage to convince his supporters that he's basically a cool environmentalist type, I don't see any reason he couldn't pull that off a second time. 

robbie_dee

I agree with VoD that Trudeau's position on Kinder Morgan, on its own, is unlikely to cause the Liberals defeat in the next federal election. But it is probably going to be a headache for him: now he can either side with Notley and go to war with the incoming B.C. government to push through the pipeline without provincial consent, creating static for his B.C. MPs, or refuse to push the pipeline through and jeopardize his Alberta beachhead and friendly relationship with the AB provincial government. 

On the question of this thread, I strongly suspect the next NDP premier to be elected will be Ryan Meili in Saskatchewan, likely in 2020, but I don't know if either Notley or Horgan will be in power by that time.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Why Is Trudeau Blowing His Chance to Curb Dangerous, Climate-Warming Methane?

The facts and solutions are readily available, but our pipeline-loving PM stalls.

 

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/06/07/Trudeau-Blowing-Climate-Chance/

josh

NDP needs to continue to move well to the left and distinguish itself as much as possible from the Liberals.  That will have the added benefit of pulling the terms of the debate to the left.

NorthReport

Canada has lots of money to pay for all the social programs we require. All we need to do is keep electing NDP governments who will make the rich pay their fare share of taxes

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2017/06/06/Tax-Subsidies-for-the-Rich/

robbie_dee

From the article North Report linked above:

Quote:

Although many political observers have focused on the rise of the right, there has been a corresponding rise of the left in elections. In the United States, Bernie Sanders ran an insurgent campaign within the Democratic Party against Hillary Clinton. In the French presidential elections, far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon did well in the first round – a mere four points behind eventual winner Emmanuel Macron. And in the Dutch election, both the far left and the far right picked up support.

The first glimmer of this shift to the far left was in Greece. Pasok, a progressive social democratic party and one of the two traditional ruling parties, went from winning elections with more than 40-per-cent support to being replaced by the further-left Syriza party. The key takeaway is the phenomenon now called “Pasokification,” in which mainstream progressive parties are getting squeezed as voters opt for either left-wing or right-wing anti-establishment politicians.

This polarization likely points to one possible path for Canada’s New Democrats. With many of their progressive policies co-opted by the Liberals, the NDP presenting themselves as another moderate social democratic movement could lead them to political oblivion in the short term. One option for the NDP is to veer left of the Liberals, reclaim the New Democrat populist heritage and attack U.S. President Donald Trump.

The Pasokification process appears to be well under way in Quebec, where Quebec Solidaire has rejected PQ entreaties for an electoral alliance and instead is simply eating their lunch in the cities while conservative nationalists in more rural areas drift toward the CAQ. In Anglophone Canada I am not seeing it happening yet. We also can't be sure the NDP would be the beneficiary of a leftward drift in public sentiment as opposed to the victim if a new formation emerges. I don't really see a Sanders- or Corbyn-style candidate in the current crop of NDP leadership contenders. Niki Ashton and Charlie Angus are both trying but I'm not sure I buy it. The Notley government is pretty radical for Alberta but they're a far cry from SYRIZA and they are facing a huge backlash in the next provincial election if oil prices don't recover.

Aristotleded24

robbie_dee wrote:
I don't really see a Sanders- or Corbyn-style candidate in the current crop of NDP leadership contenders. Niki Ashton and Charlie Angus are both trying but I'm not sure I buy it.

One difference there is that Corbyn and Sanders both have a decades-long history of standing on their principles even when it was not popular, whereas Ashton and Angus, good people, simply haven't been around long enough to be tested in that fashion.

robbie_dee

Agreed, Aristotleded24. Charlie Angus has quite the interesting backstory as a punk rocker and social activist before entering politics. I've heard some great things about the work he has done. On the other hand my understanding is as caucus chair he actually played the role as enforcer of party discipline, quite the opposite of independent socialist Sanders or perennial whip-defier Corbyn (I am not necessarily saying this is a bad thing either, mind you, I'm just pointing out the difference). As for Niki, she's got great policies. She also challenged a sitting MP who was wrong on an important social issue of the day, so she has a bit of rebel cred although I can't imagine the 'party establishment' was all that upset with her for doing so. But as you point out she is still quite young and thus has a limited record; moreover she is a second generation politician and her father was a provincial cabinet minister (albeit a rebellious one). Again, I don't mean to minimize her many strengths but this cuts against casting her as a truthtelling outsider in the same way that Corbyn and Sanders were able to position themselves.

Frankly I found Pat Stogran the most interesting "outside the box" option but unfortunately he wasn't able to get traction and probably burned his bridges on the way out.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Peter Julian has been in parliament for 13 years and has been very consistent. It is time that a BC politician became leader of the NDP. Peter has good connections in Quebec and speaks fluent French.  I have been impressed with his improvement in presentation. He is the perfect antidote to Trudeau and will pick up Liberal seats on the West Coast.  Neither Angus nor Ashton look like they are going to excite voters in the GTO or Metro Montreal. Peter took a seat away from the Conservatives and has held it easily for 5 elections in a row. His riding is multi-racial and multi-cultural and that is the kind of riding the NDP needs to take from the Liberals.

josh

As I noted in the other thread, he may have the best combination of policy chops and electoral strength of the group.