Canadian federal election 2019 part 3

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NorthReport

The Liberals have a weak candidate.

R.E.Wood

On the morning of the vote it's looking like we will likely have a Liberal minority, with the NDP holding sufficient seats to hold the balance of power, which could be a great situation for the country and for the NDP. Congratulations to Jagmeet Singh, who soared beyond expectations and did an excellent job throughout the campaign. No-one could have done better. Watching the results come in tonight is going to be exciting, and I think it's going to come down to BC. Happy voting, everyone!

Pondering

cco wrote:
"We're better off in opposition" is what politicians tell themselves the morning after they lose. I've yet to meet one who believes it during a campaign.

The Liberals decided they were better off in opposition than allowing Dion to become PM. 

Ciabatta2 wrote:
The Liberals enabled Harper for years under Ignatieff. That obviously did not have long-term ramafications for them. Harper only lasted one full majority term.

Different situation. Climate change and income inequality were not so high profile. Layton passed away afterwhich the NDP was focused on a new leader. Mulcair supported pipelines and did not focus on income inequality. The Duffy scandal took up tons of airspace. Notice Singh isn't focusing on SNC or blackface. 

I know "people always say" that young people will vote more progressively than their parents and some here say that isn't true but it is. 30 years ago the Conservatives were more openly anti-abortion and openly against gay marriage. They can't do that anymore because Conservative parents aren't raising children conservative enough to replace their parents vote. The population as a whole has moved left socially.

That isn't the kind of change that is going to happen now because that was slow. What is beginning now and will accelerate is more akin to the political changes after the war, during the Great Depression and the rise of neoliberalism.

We are at the beginning of the fall of neoliberalism (not capitalism) which is being caused by its economic failures as recognized by the IMF. Were it not for climate change it would happen very slowly. Neoliberalism can't deal with climate change. People don't need to have any idea what neoliberalism is to know that it isn't working. The generation ahead of the boomers is the most sceptical on climate change. Think 70+ and they are dying off. Both my parents passed away in the past couple of years and they always voted.  They may not be the majority but there are plenty of boomers concerned about climate change. Every generation younger than that is more and more concerned about climate change. Climate change is the catalyst that is motivating voters and will continue to do so in growing numbers. It is broadly accepted that radical change is needed. Each year that passes will only make that more and more obvious. Insurance companies take it into account now. Other businesses do as well. It impacts supply chains. Other countries are already making radical changes. The technology exists. 

If Scheer wins a plurality of seats and Trudeau steps down rather than making a deal with the NDP the Liberals will wear it. It seems Trudeau is about to win a minority but even that is based on people still believing he is somewhat progressive. If the Liberals support Scheer they will wear it in 2023. They won't be getting the youth vote or the indigenous vote or women's votes. Not as many at any rate. 

It looks like Trudeau's last minute desperate plea to stop the Conservatives have won him a more certain minority and the votes he lost didn't go to the Conservatives. If the Liberals support the Conservatives this time around there will be no reason to vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives. There will be no reason to vote Liberal for the sake of climate change. 

If Trudeau does win a minority he do as Harper did and refuse to make any deals. He will dare the others to take him down. That is the new tradition the Conservatives left us with. Minority governments used to be a bit more humble. 

knownothing knownothing's picture

Pondering wrote:

I know "people always say" that young people will vote more progressively than their parents and some here say that isn't true but it is. 

Real change happens one funeral at a time

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

knownothing wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I know "people always say" that young people will vote more progressively than their parents and some here say that isn't true but it is. 

Real change happens one funeral at a time

The problem in my generation (the boomers) was that as fast as the old farts died off, the middle aged ex-hippies were lining up to replace them, principles be damned. Perhaps the more dire circumstances of youth today will mitigate that issue.

Ciabatta2

Pondering wrote:

cco wrote:
"We're better off in opposition" is what politicians tell themselves the morning after they lose. I've yet to meet one who believes it during a campaign.

The Liberals decided they were better off in opposition than allowing Dion to become PM. 

Ciabatta2 wrote:

 If the Liberals support the Conservatives this time around there will be no reason to vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives. There will be no reason to vote Liberal for the sake of climate change.

Good points, but responding to the above - again, they don't have to support the COnservatives in any way to allow a Conservative minority to rule for a short time, setting themselves up to be our political "saviours" (that's tongue in cheek, for you Misfit) once again.

NorthReport

Very well said MM

Michael Moriarity wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I know "people always say" that young people will vote more progressively than their parents and some here say that isn't true but it is. 

Real change happens one funeral at a time

The problem in my generation (the boomers) was that as fast as the old farts died off, the middle aged ex-hippies were lining up to replace them, principles be damned. Perhaps the more dire circumstances of youth today will mitigate that issue.

Pondering

Michael Moriarity wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Pondering wrote:

I know "people always say" that young people will vote more progressively than their parents and some here say that isn't true but it is. 

Real change happens one funeral at a time

The problem in my generation (the boomers) was that as fast as the old farts died off, the middle aged ex-hippies were lining up to replace them, principles be damned. Perhaps the more dire circumstances of youth today will mitigate that issue.

I disagree. Boomers are far more liberal than their parents were and more environmentally conscious. I'm not talking about leaders I'm talking about people. Scheer should have been able to get a majority easily after Trudeau's many gaffes. That Trudeau is getting a second term says a lot about the Conservatives. They are split between the reformers and the PCs. There isn't enough of either to win an election. The Conservative base isn't growing. 

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