Canadian parliament prorogued again; Part 3

Wilf posted an interesting link at the end of the last thread. ;)

And I believe OO's observations in the democracy thread about the Conservatives and Harper being bewildered about Canadians negative response to their proroguing again, and that they are trying to find an avenue out of their created mess, are accurate.

So does anyone know what the opposition parties are up to today?

In rural BC the opposition, especially the NDP, have to push the anti-democratic nature of Harper .  He still benefits from some of the old Reform voters who actually wanted reform not the liberals on steroids.  They need to get the message about democracy out and it needs to be loud and clear.  I think it can mean wins in seats in  the north and interior that the Reform used to own.

Over 48,400 members of Canadians Against Proroguing Parliament. That's about 1,000 more in the last half hour. I've never, ever, seen this speed of growth. Even from the Ontario teen drivers' protest.

Wilf, you linked to the wrong group. It is This one. Mind you, it is not just the rapid growth of this group that is amazing, but the number of similar groups that have sprung up.

50,126.

Peter Milquetoast was pathetic.  He barely even tried on the Afghan detainees question, and didn't touch the production of papers at all.

On CBC Power & Politics tonight

Evan Solomon: ". . . 132 top political scientists are calling for changes in the way we vote. But how can electoral reform address concerns over prorogation?"

Larry Gordon "This is just the latest blow-up, the latest problem that we've been seeing in Ottawa with the constant partisan bickering, the unstable government . . . We are using the world's worst voting system . . . The big parties know that 40% of the votes may be enough to give them 60% of the seats and 100% of the power. It creates a disincentive to work together in constructive co-operative partnerships with other parties to pass legislation that actually reflects the will of the majority of the electorate. . . I think there is a strong visceral anger that Canadian have about politics not working . . . The more we see democratic deficit crises erupt, the more people are going to start connecting the dots between their visceral anger about politics and the fact that we need to reform our democratic instutitions so that politics can work more for the benefit of the people rather than be just a power shell game that the politicians are playing. . . Canadians aren't going to put up with a lot more of this."

Evan Solomon: "If we had a different system, proportional representation, how would this prorogation, would that have been different, Dennis?

Prof. Dennis Pilon: "Oh, absolutely. Our current system creates incentives for the politicians not to co-operate with each other. There's always an incentive to throw the dice and see if you can turn 40% of the vote into 60% of the seats. The thing about a PR system is it would end that. Because now the politicians would know they wouldn't get anything more from going back to the electorate. In fact the electorate would punish them, and say "we elected you to work something out and that's what we want you to do." So all this talk about changing the parliamentary rules, that's not going to make a difference. This is the key institution that will alter the way the politicians act to power."

People don't care about Afghan detainee issue: Harper

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/746448--people-don-t-care-abo...

Dont think so. Think Spectors idea of dissolution immidiately following Budget tabling, while not perfect for Harper, will work the best for a Spring election. Its certain, and unless polling in the next 2 months tell them the optics will look VERY bad, they'll go ahead and pull the plug.

Here's my take, modified from something I first wrote elsewhere.

I don't buy the logic of Spector and other pundits, and thinking popular on the left, that Harper is driven by the visceral goal of getting a majority- not anymore at least.

He has for most of his 4 years been governing as if he has a majorty- and constantly pushes the envelope to make it more like that here and now. "Go ahead and stop me."

He has consistently acted in a manner where he will not risk that bird in the hand for the mere possibility of getting a majority.

And ever since his stupid big overeach of a year ago, the next election we have, he HAS to get a majority, or he will most likely be out of power.

Because of the way he has governed, and because the Liberals have become too weakened to make the mistake again of waitng for the "better" chance to govern on their own.... even if Harper falls just 2 seats short of a majority, he's out.

Sure he'd rather have a majority, but he isn't going to risk what he has that works very well for him, for the mere chance to get a majority.

The closest they have ever gotten in the polls is "majority territory"- where if everything goes right for them they MIGHT get a majority. And it won't be any different in early March... not in terms of what can be EXPECTED, which is what all parties go on for their strategic choices.

Hence my initial raction that nothing has changed, and don't expect a Spring election.

BUT....

An election in 2011 is inevitable for a myriad of reasons.

Which is the same time that the situation gets really bad for fiscal manouvering room for the federal government. It is highly likely that Harper crew knows that even with all the spending cuts they have planned, the need for tax increases is inevitable.

The cuts in spending will already not endear them with the swing voters they need to get a majority. And bringing in tax increases for Harper would cost them with the same voters.

So the prospects of an election in 2011 may not look good at all for them.

That being the case, even if they cannot expect to get a majority out of an election now... "maybe" they can get a majority now, is better than "much diminished chance" later.

I'm not saying 2011 is necessarily going to look that bad for them now, but if it does, which seams quite likely....

And if it is going to be a Spring election, it would be that scenario of Throne Soeech, Budget presented the next day, pull the plug and call an early April election on the weekend.

I don't think they will get a better set up than that.

And it certainly doesn't hurt the jugular of the Liberals is quite exposed. Harper wouldn't go for that alone. But if an election in 2011 is inevitable, the fiscal situation then sucks, and the Liberals can get back in the groove by then... then now is the time. Unless polling tells then the chances for a majority are slim.

I think they judge that they still get a win if they come out with another minority but a Liberal party that can't sustain another campaign financially.  That's as good as a minority unless the Liberals are so weak they go knocking on the NDP's door.

If the NDP can pass the Bloc in the number of seats they win plus take even a couple more seats in Quebec, then I think some things could really start to open up in that province, which might also keep the Conservatives interested in hanging around for one more try as well.

55,010.

Of course my above post does show a weakness for the Cons-- the fact they believe a coalition would fail. I don't know if it would myself-- it might. So I think the Cons could allow an election they believe they can only win a minority as long as they do not think they would lose outright. Still what would be the point of calling an election for a minority when you have a strong one already? Besides Harper I think would prefer to be brought down rather than pull the plug himself-- unless he could lose-- and around we go again with the same arguments.

I disagree; I think Harper thinks it's undignified to lose on a confidence vote most of the time, and would rather dissolve parliament when he's good and ready to do himself.  The other issue that tipped it for me is the implementation date of the HST (July 1), which is why I think the March for April 12 reasoning is sound.  I agree with most of the rest of what you guys are thinking though.

House shut?  Liberals to report for work anyway

OTTAWA–Liberal MPs have decided to defy Prime Minister Stephen Harper's shutdown of Parliament by showing up for work anyway in Ottawa the last week of January.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/746615--house-shut-liberals-t...

Touche! - the bully is going to get one between the eyes!

Kevin Page to mess up orchestration of the election psuedo-Budget

And he particularly owes it to Mr. Harper, returning all the favours so to speak.

As well as not wanting this in the script now, this is the inescapable elephant in the room for 2011... couple with an inevitable election, spells big trouble for Harper Crew if they wait. [Not to mention that the opportunity may have passed for being able to mercilessly pummel the Liberals in a campaign.]

And thats why we are poised for an election now. Because Flaherty can get away with saying this now- they may well even be able to shout Kevin Page down. 

But by 2011, the pretending will be over. Trimming program spending here and there will not        do the job, and they know it. Its either cut into big ticket transfers to individuals that will                 make it impossible for them to woo enough swing voters to get a majority;                              or replace the tax revenues they took out with the GST cuts, and                                                make it impossible for them to woo enough swing voters to get a majority. 

Ah, what a helpful guy.

i don't understand  how the NDP could have planned a caucus retreat for what otherwise would have been a usual Parliament day.

L. Ian MacDonald weighs in, with similar comments to those I transcribed from CTV Newsnet last week.  Noteworthy is this quote:

Yes indeed. Let's hope we have all learned from our past mistakes.

Interesting, but I'm not seeing this text or the show on this topic at the link. Is this material there?

I'm not at all convinced either that we will have an election now.

I'm just certain its being set up for that.

And that the 2 year fiscal situation is compelling enough that they will follow through and pull the trigger unless polling tells them going now is nearly as bad as waiting. Since there is a good chance their polling WILL be that bad, there is a good chance they will not pull the trigger.

Selling crown assets won't buy them 2 years time, even less so considering the lead times required even for a fire sale. 

Ken, when I say two years I do not suggest this will balance the books. But it does not need to. Any movement in reducing the deficit would provide an opening for the argument that it can eventually be balanced and that is all they need to get through the two years. After the massive stimulus the government only needs to show a little progress for a couple years before people will pay enough attention in the mainly compliant press. As well, budget provisions can also buy time. Sales of some assets can be very quick-- and many have been prepared for some time. So I do think that asset sales, along with some improved revenues from taxation and a reduction in stimulus spending will convince people we are going in the right direction for a couple years-- the issue of a structural deficit that will require more may be covered up that long. Of course, Page, the budget officer might sound the alarm earlier but the government will likely start showing movement quickly.

As well, I think the government may have under-estimated its deficit before going in deep and then over-estimated it at the bottom so that the valley looks sharper than it really is and progress (albeit a sham of progress) gets defined earlier and for a time. It will take two years for Conservative voters to finally grasp what has happened to the finances of the country. That the opposition already knows is irrelevant the only issue is moving votes from Conservatives and I think they can hang on to them on this issue at least for a couple years.

Harper Crew will be paying for focus group research every week gauging just how much people mean it when they say they do not want an election.

And whatever it takes to get polling results with 2 days of the Throne and Budget Speeches, they are geared up for that.

And they'll have already of metrics they have to meet for pulling the plug.

I took all those ameliorating measures for the fiscal situation into account, and obviously they aren't expected to balance the books in 2 years. Bottom line, is that they have the Finance Department mandarins to work all that up. Its only my hunch that the greatest likelihood is that they won't be able to escape talking about significant tax increases.

Being able to put off implementing "new revenue sources" until 2012 or 2013, does not free you from being forced to fess up in 2011.

They are the only ones who know where that line is expected to fall. The more your hunch of sufficient manouvering room for now tends to be correct, and my 'crunch hunch' tends to be overstated.... then that takes off that much pressure on them for going ahead and pushing the button now despite the very real risks of being turfed out of power.

But I'm pretty certain that button is armed, and will stay that way right until [if] they determine that the cure of an election now is worse than the disease.

If he is like the Conservative MP of my riding, he will care but will just not respond to your letter. Ultimately, you will have no way of directly knowing.

The CBC has become a State media outlet not an independent public broadcaster.  Ready Aye Ready is the overriding message from the Imperial mouthpiece.  20 years ago I thought our model of public broadcaster was superior to the American model but now if you watch PBS you get more real analysis of issues from a variety of sources than on our tax payer funded propaganda machine.

This is at the heart of why we are losing our democratic institutions.  Without open and honest reporting with historic context our citizens don't even understand that what is being done is not only not normal but it is anti-democratic.  I turned the local CBC radio off this morning when they began to vilify all politicians and chortle about how although few people trust journalists they are more trusted than politicians.  

What Harper is doing is perfectly acceptable to the elite that controls not only our country but our media as well?  The NDP needs to really push this issue because if Harper gets away with this kind of blatant disregard for the elected MP's then what is the point of voting for an MP?

___________________________________________

Soothsayers had a better record of prediction than economists

The media is all that will be left-- Senate reform to shorten terms means it will reflect current politics of the House quicker so it will not oppose PM, GG is co-opted, parliament can be summoned and sent away, court decisions ignored by government. Only the media such as it is remains but with a compliant private press. The PM needs to control the CBC in order to make it a clean sweep. Then there will be no effective check or balance on PM power. That makes a perfect virtual dictatorship. Not all dictatorships come in suddenly-- some have had to consolidate power incrementally. A few examples come to mind but I do not feel the need to list them. Study your history friends.

How did this happen? I have a theory that there is a limit to social progress. When people are extremely uncomfortable they focus on survival and do nothing. When people are very uncomfortable but not to the point of being disabled by it, they make progress and fight strongly (we see that the best off people in bad situations lead revolutions). When people get comfortable they want to hold on to what they have and choose to deny the problems. We can move through these in a pendulum but cannot get past the comfort zone without sliding back enough for people to be uncomfortable again.

Of course a co-opted democracy functioning as a dictatorship is worse than an overt dictatorship when it comes to making progress. Then people do not see the source of the power or the loss of democracy as they would in a military dictatorship. They do not get involved-- they prefer to pretend it is okay because they are too invested to do otherwise.

Let us not forget the example the US gave in 2000. Bush lost the election and everyone knew it but the Democrats were so invested in the notion that the country was still democratic that they could not use the remaining tools that were available to enforce the actual will of the people. Gore knew that to admit that the country had failed in a democratic exercise would do a lot of damage to those who were well off and the economy itself and choose to ignore his victory and end legal challenges to assert it. While this tendency exists in Canada it is not so obvious and dramatic. However, here we do not want to admit that our democracy is failing and that it is so weak that a PM can chop parts of it off. Our desire to participate in the collective illusion will doom us to fail to act while there remains any ability to make a difference. We will swing, ever so slowly to the other end of the pendulum and leave it to the uncomfortable to do something about it-- and hope they can.

I've been re-calibrating my vacuming for like a month now.

It's not a perfect situation, but at least it means some Liberals are willing to get off their backsides and be in Ottawa ready to do something.

It will also be good if the NDP can be actively involved as well.  If the opposition parties can be seen to be more visible and active than the Conservatives, it will be a positive opportunity to connect with Canadians.

The figure is now over 71,000.  And still growing rapidly.  What number does it have to reach before it has a real impact?

And at 7:54 p.m. it's 73,003. Keep counting.

You are absolutely right.  Paul Wells had a piece saying that the Facebook group is useless and not real action.  It's true that it's not people in the streets, but it has had a real impact.  Not bad for something people just sort of do in their spare time.  And I know tons of activists who do "real life" action who also do a lot of online organizing and socializing using tools like Facebook and other social media.

Not to mention that people ARE organizing street protests on Facebook over this.  I think it has a lot to do with why the Liberals have announced that they'll be going back to work on January 25th or 27th (can't remember which) as well.  It's a way of harnessing and directing public opinion, when something like this FB group happens.  The media play alone is worth the few seconds it takes to join the group and post something on the wall.

This is a scream:

Real Dear Abby questions, with answers that Stephen Harper would give.

And it just gets better from there. :D  (It's pretty long too - he did a bunch of questions!)

As those on here who know me persoanlly can probably guess I do a lot of visiting of local establishments, like coffee shops just to chat people up and to get the pulse of my area.

Anyway, I have been testing out where this is going with the average person out of curiosity and going to a few more such places.  Now this is of course not scientific, but  I have been very pleasently surprised at the kind of comments I get.  I was into a little coffee shop on the corner of two major roads in our area.  As I was leaving there were people talking about the weather and an expected big snowstorm on the way.  I just innocently said, 'well maybe I will be like Stephen Harper and take an extended vacation that day so I can avoid the whole thing."  I am normally not very funny, but this got a really big laugh and then a bunch of the people, men and women alike, started riffing on the whole prorogue thing.  It went on for rather a long time and it was really biting.  I have to think that a lot of those folks probably voted Conservative in the last election.  (and that is only one such occurance.)

Now it's true they may vote Conservative again, but I think Harper has shown once again that he has put tactics ahead of strategy and managed to do some self-inflicted wounding.  Now lets hope this time though the opposition has its collective act together well enough to capitalize on it.  And for the love of God if you see a Liberal leader sitting down to video a message jump on the camera to save us all.

I agree with you that it certainly has left an imprint.  And I think the straw/camel's back is probably the right analogy.  This may not be the final one, but it's one more adding to the pile.

Your comment kind of gets off the main point of the topic because you are stating a personal opinion.

All parties are going to say that they are "for the people" and so different people will have an opinion as to which one best does that.  The Conservatives no doubt feel that they are for the people as do the Liberals and NDP, and BQ (for Quebecers).

The main point on this thread is not to debate which party is the most "for the people" but to encourage all the opposition parties to oppose Harper's prorogation of Parliament and to be actually doing something during the prorogation.

That's why I was glad that it appears some members of the Liberals and NDP are trying to do that.

Last year's anti-coalition facebook group had 127,000 members (I was a bit surprised to see). That along with stacking the radio call-in shows (and probably some angry calls and emails to MPS) was enough for the conservatives to claim victory and "prove" that there was some kind of cross-Canada consensus. Hope we can at least beat the 127,000 :) 

79,845.

Well, with this Harper interview, it looks like no election. And the Ekos polls numbers would give an indication of why.

So, whats next?

In a nutshell, I'd say its some parliamentary and extra-parliamentary circuses in March, no election anytime this year, and make sure Harper gets his fall in 2011.

The near term feed in for his fall, is to make what is possible of the prorogation. It really doesn't look to me anymore like this has any all or nothing chance... but I agree that making sure it sticks in peoples minds is important. This is just the sort of thing that keeps Harper from moving into that zone where people are not wary of him.... and the events/incidences like prorogation will not by themselves impact the fence sitters much. Without the noise and kerfufle, Harper could probably put them permanently into snooze mode.

On the circuses end of things I expect Harper to put something nasty and polarizing into the Budget with all the goodies and assurances that economic growth and a little trimming will take care of the growing deficit. Polarizing, as in a poke in the eye for the opposition and their core supporters, but something that wont upset the swing voters the Conservatives continuously court.

Probably some elements in the Budget to embarass the Liberals as they head into their 'thinkers conference'.... so that they vote contrary to things they would like to come out of the conference talking about. And just to keep up the flow of stuff helping the Liberals stay generally off balance. Drag out the debate process for the Throne Speech and budgets, to maximize the effect of Liberal floundering, and stretch it to close to the conference.

But no poison pills like the voter subsidy issue. Even with just semi-attentive swing voters, Harper wears the blame for last year's crisis. So he'd definitely wear the blame for provoking an election now. Not going to happen when he doesn't even want to take the smooth path set up for calling an election in March.

With the Liberals treading water, and then floundering in the extended run up to the votes on the Throne Speech and budgets; and the arrogant performing of the Harper crowd, there must be an opportunity for the NDP to change the channel as much as possible. No knock out blows- building up credibility.

He said he "has no desire for an election" not that there wouldn't be one.  Only a month ago there were "no plans for a prorogation".  I think you were right before, Ken; he's just putting a viable option in place, and reserving judgement for now on whether to use it.

Haven't we had enough of Harper already? He didn't do very well in the Angus Reid poll on prorogation. 

Don't underestimate human stupidity. These people are not as competent as they pretend to be.

it would seem the reformatories in AB did not like is actions only 7% approved strong and 14% moderately, while 26% strongly disagreed and 24% moderately did.

It would seem SK and MN are outpacing AB with anti-democratic sentiments these days, with BC not far behind. Though to be fair  in the teens approval of prorogation is not good on any level.

No wonder Harper was the CBC shilling his actions.

Do you think this retirement will have an effect on whether or not Harper will want an election?  I don't see much of a connection.

Lawrence Martin of The Globe and Mail:

'Harper's given them two months of free target practice'

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/harpers-given-them-two-mont...

Well at least some Canadians are paying attention - polls show that the majority of people are opposed to the prorogation, and the EKOS poll appears to show a drop in support for the Conservatives.

You might say a collapse back to their base support.  But look at the Libs. They're not gaining. Has Iggy got the message yet? No? I didn't think so.

Well the Liberals have gained in this poll, both nationally and in Ontario and Quebec.  They are now tied with the Conservatives in Ontario and well ahead of them in Quebec.

But I agree that the gains are pretty small - the Liberal Party brand is the strength, not Ignatieff himself.  He is anemic and has yet to register an impact with Canadians.

I see you are back to your favourite topic of discussion, NR.

10017

10023

10037

10053

Man, I've got to learn to type faster!

Concern over suspension of Parliament grows, poll finds

Move has unsettled large number of Canadians, eroded support for Tories, and even drawn criticism from foreign press

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/concern-over-suspension-of-parliament-grows-poll-finds/article1423451/

Here is the narrative that Harper will play out over the next couple months to continue arming that button for calling an election right after tabling the Budget in the first week of March:

PM "asks" voters for budget advice

And he is going to "ask"- perform- over and over in the coming weeks.

They already are seen as the steady hand for getting us through all the current and coming problems... this is all about bolserting, and cognitively reminding all those swing voters again and again.

"Did we tell you yet that we have issues that urgently need dealing with?" And you know of course who is best equipped to lead that.

I looked again at that Harper interview I linked above.

I agree with OO that there is room in what Harper said for him to say later that an election is required for him to deal with these difficult issues facing Canada.

I also still think he gave a pretty strong answer that if the opposition parties voted for the budget, thats good enough: no election needed.

That said, two months from now if he goes against that, what he said now will not matter.

interview

Which is a segway to what I don't see in the requisite narrative for Harper pushing that button and calling the election.

AFTER the election starts, if it happens, the ballot question will be easy: "do you want me guiding things in these diffcult times, or do you want the Three Stooges running things". And I think he can this time stay away from the 'in bed with separatists' card that hurts them so much in Quebec, and still carry that ballot question very effectively. My hunch is that it won't work all that well in 2 way races with the NDP, but that it would work very well in the races with the Liberals and the Bloc. Thats a lot of seats in play, and they can reasonably expect to at least do OK in holding their western seats.

In spite of being able to see that ballot question working well enough to trump all the concerns about proroguing and not really trusting Harper... my inclination is to still see a sort of 'missing link': since the Liberals have made it clear they are going to vote for the Budget no matter what it says, what is the excuse for calling an election?

If we see one of those excuses being developed, we'll now what's going on. But if that happens, probably only late in the game.

Or maybe Harper Crew can just count on people not really knowing the Liberals are going to rubber stamp the budget. The Liberals are not directly saying they will, and only junkies get the signals.

And/or maybe they can expect the ballot question to be so compelling that it rolls over even swing voters knowing that the 'need' for an election is a transparent scam. "Its here. And I don't want the Three Stooges."

Me, I don't love the chattering asses.

Let me help you with this, as it is clear the made up Conservative talking points have you confused.

Prorogation is not uncommon - HOWEVER- never before has any government used it to avoid an examintation of its actions.  The closest this ever came was Chretien's desire to flip the receiving of the report on the sponsorship scandal onto Martin.  Notice nothing was stopped, or eroded, or even delayed.

Never before has prorogation been done so far in advance of the next sitting of the House.  This move is unprecedented.  We are in uncharted waters here, comparing it to anything in the past is simply an attempt to mislead.

Prorogation in the modern era does not happen annually, well not until Harper decided to avoid Lord Durham's promise of responsible government.  In the past the rules of the House were different around setting the Parliamentary Calendar.  Those new rules were brought in specifically to avoid such routine proroguing of the House and all the complications it means for committees and so on.

As well prorogation is rarely used to close the place-- look at the dates-- most of the time it is used and the place sits only a few days later. some of Chretien's were followed right away by a new sitting -- no comparison.

And it has not been used to this effect by a minority PM before (and that is significant because Harper cannot control the house).

Poor Yipbl, forced to consort with the chattering classes on babble!

It's okay, Yipbl, you don't have to bear it!  Fly away!  Be free!

Hey, didn't realize how long this was.  I'll close it now - feel free to continue in a new thread.

Haha!  Democracy is being suspended - that's awesome! :D