The coming Conservative super-majority in Canada

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quizzical

have been thinking about this scare tactic of a Conservative super majority.

i say let it happen. maybe then people will see the enormity of what the Conservatives are today and turn their backs on the social conservatives for a decade or so.

voice of the damned

quizzical wrote:

have been thinking about this scare tactic of a Conservative super majority.

i say let it happen. maybe then people will see the enormity of what the Conservatives are today and turn their backs on the social conservatives for a decade or so.

I wouldn't be too optimistic about that outcome. We had almost a decade of Harper, including four years with a majority, and it didn't stop people in Ontario and Quebec from electing Ford and Legault, respectively.  

Aristotleded24

voice of the damned wrote:

quizzical wrote:

have been thinking about this scare tactic of a Conservative super majority.

i say let it happen. maybe then people will see the enormity of what the Conservatives are today and turn their backs on the social conservatives for a decade or so.

I wouldn't be too optimistic about that outcome. We had almost a decade of Harper, including four years with a majority, and it didn't stop people in Ontario and Quebec from electing Ford and Legault, respectively.

Those times also coincided with arrogant Liberal administrations who angered the voting public so much that a ham sandwich running under a political banner was bound to come along and sweep them out of office.

Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

voice of the damned wrote:

quizzical wrote:

have been thinking about this scare tactic of a Conservative super majority.

i say let it happen. maybe then people will see the enormity of what the Conservatives are today and turn their backs on the social conservatives for a decade or so.

I wouldn't be too optimistic about that outcome. We had almost a decade of Harper, including four years with a majority, and it didn't stop people in Ontario and Quebec from electing Ford and Legault, respectively.

Those times also coincided with arrogant Liberal administrations who angered the voting public so much that a ham sandwich running under a political banner was bound to come along and sweep them out of office.

Hi Quizzical, I am assuming you do not live in Ontario. (Actually, I know you don't.) The two things I can say from living in this province is that the pain of right wing governments are hard and immediate. We are having our healthcare and education sized for the coffin here and the poison is flowing. This is a heavy price given the second thing: people in this part of the coutnry at least learn lessons and forget them in no time at all. After the screwing of the Harris years we have elected something worse, without so much as even a platform. Harris was gone only in 2002. We are still paying the price of the Harris regime 16 years later and now we have Ford.

Another example -- here in Ontario the Ford government just ripped up the regulation that prevented third party meters (picked by landords in large buildings or condo corps) from gauging tenants to the extreme. they are also reconsidering the value of providing pain control in some health procedures (like colonoscopy) to save money.

This is the same party during the Harris era that introduced welfare "reform" that cut rates, and then mandated that people on social assistance had to declare and be docked for a family dinner they received. The penalty was to be cut from the welfare roles -- for life -- it did not matter if they had children that would starve either. One woman committed suicide.

I am not a fan of the Liberals and as I have said here they are the in-the-way party. They scoop up progressive support and then bait and switch on policies followed by scandal and delivery of the government to Conservatives. This is a constant theme.

Still, I would never see a silver lining in a conservative victory -- particularly provincial where the effect on the most vulnerable is so immediate. It might be possible to consider the whole short term pain, as extreme as it is, if the voting public did not have the memory of a 1980s desktop computer overwritten for each new campaign. The lack of memory that allows for constant Liberal betrayal is the same lack of memory that sets us up for the disastrous Conservative regimes.

I do not pretend that the Liberals do much for the people but they do refrain, for the most part, from the most gleeful, cruel initiatives to strike at the most vulnerable. (I acknowledge that this is not the case with BC Liberals.) The Conservatives cause this pain not to save money but becuase their base eats it up. The Liberals are sleazy, ineffectual and selfish. The Conservatives have a sadistic streak.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
The Conservatives cause this pain not to save money but becuase their base eats it up. The Liberals are sleazy, ineffectual and selfish. The Conservatives have a sadistic streak.

I agree, so you would think it would be easier to convince people to vote NDP. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Singh may be beginning to do that, but he has to spend every moment of every day, between now and polling day, doing nothing BUT that.  An "a plague on both their houses" campaign could be dramatically effective right now.  Up until the Burnaby by-election, the Singh era has resembled a slow-motion version of the scene from BRAVEHEART in which the English troops are charging and William Wallace keeps shouting "Hold!...Hold!...Hold!" to keep the Scottish forces from firing their arrows until the English are nearly in their faces.  For a long time, it looked as though Singh would never stop shouting "Hold!" and the English(the Liberals and Conservatives, in this metaphor)would just charge right through the NDP ranks, cutting them the party to ribbons with their swords.

Pondering

From the following there is no danger of a Conservative super majority and not much chance they will win.

Polling data on the SNC-Lavalin fallout. I consider Abacus Conservative leaning. 

https://abacusdata.ca/tracking-the-impact-of-the-snc-lavalin-controvery-sunday-update/

The Conservatives have a slight lead over the Liberals. Based on the sample size, there’s an 89% chance the Conservatives are in the lead. There’s an 11% chance the Liberals are ahead. Mr. Trudeau’s personal image remains in the red. The gap between those with a positive view and those with a negative one has persisted since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony.  But Mr. Scheer’s image hasn’t benefited from the SNC-Lavalin controversy. Those with a positive view of the Conservative leader has dropped 5 points since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. Mr. Singh has seen almost no change in impressions over this period, which also included his by-election win in Burnaby South at the end of February.

By Saturday, Mr. Trudeau had opened up an 8-point lead over Mr. Scheer on who Canadians would prefer as PM after the next election.

(The following two questions are the results from people who are aware of the SNC case.)

Attention to the controversy hasn’t really changed since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. All the movement is within the comparable margin of error. 

The percentage of those thinking Prime Minister Trudeau should resign has declined over time. Yesterday, 34% were inclined to say “yes” he should resign, the lowest we have tracked since February 28.

Trudeau has an 8 point lead on Scheer. People are not happy about how Trudeau managed this which is reflected in Liberal party numbers but they still prefer him over Scheer meaning they will still vote Liberal. People thinking he should resign is just at 34% which isn't even all Conservative and NDP voters. That number is dropping because people are getting bored with the story. No sex. No money. No laws broken by PM or staff. 

I am not minimizing Trudeau's sins. I am commenting on the likely impact on the election not judging whether it is right or wrong. 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

From the following there is no danger of a Conservative super majority and not much chance they will win.

Polling data on the SNC-Lavalin fallout. I consider Abacus Conservative leaning. 

https://abacusdata.ca/tracking-the-impact-of-the-snc-lavalin-controvery-sunday-update/

The Conservatives have a slight lead over the Liberals. Based on the sample size, there’s an 89% chance the Conservatives are in the lead. There’s an 11% chance the Liberals are ahead. Mr. Trudeau’s personal image remains in the red. The gap between those with a positive view and those with a negative one has persisted since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony.  But Mr. Scheer’s image hasn’t benefited from the SNC-Lavalin controversy. Those with a positive view of the Conservative leader has dropped 5 points since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. Mr. Singh has seen almost no change in impressions over this period, which also included his by-election win in Burnaby South at the end of February.

By Saturday, Mr. Trudeau had opened up an 8-point lead over Mr. Scheer on who Canadians would prefer as PM after the next election.

(The following two questions are the results from people who are aware of the SNC case.)

Attention to the controversy hasn’t really changed since Ms. Wilson-Raybould’s testimony. All the movement is within the comparable margin of error. 

The percentage of those thinking Prime Minister Trudeau should resign has declined over time. Yesterday, 34% were inclined to say “yes” he should resign, the lowest we have tracked since February 28.

Trudeau has an 8 point lead on Scheer. People are not happy about how Trudeau managed this which is reflected in Liberal party numbers but they still prefer him over Scheer meaning they will still vote Liberal. People thinking he should resign is just at 34% which isn't even all Conservative and NDP voters. That number is dropping because people are getting bored with the story. No sex. No money. No laws broken by PM or staff. 

I am not minimizing Trudeau's sins. I am commenting on the likely impact on the election not judging whether it is right or wrong. 

You are so thinking like it is 1999.

I wrote about this in another thread. People in Canada cannot see what is happening becuase the people and the government are focussing on the wrong thing.

That whole election manipulation thing? Yeah, it works. It is cheap.

For some reason the government is not clueing in to just how cheap -- like the part about you not needing a nation state to pull it off. The government and people are so secure in the fantasy that their greatest threat comes from outside Canada that they do not realize the world they now live in when it comes to politics. The price of manipulation -- effective national manipulation -- is now in the hands of just about anyone. Spending limits are obsolete becuase nobody can track this spending. The government thinks the threat only comes from outside so when our election is blown up from Canadian IP addresses they will have no defence and may not even know it happened.

The most likely thing this fall is that the election will go to the one who spends the most on election manipulation online. I would bet on the right wing.

 

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

You are so thinking like it is 1999.

I wrote about this in another thread. People in Canada cannot see what is happening becuase the people and the government are focussing on the wrong thing.

That whole election manipulation thing? Yeah, it works. It is cheap.

For some reason the government is not clueing in to just how cheap -- like the part about you not needing a nation state to pull it off. The government and people are so secure in the fantasy that their greatest threat comes from outside Canada that they do not realize the world they now live in when it comes to politics. The price of manipulation -- effective national manipulation -- is now in the hands of just about anyone. Spending limits are obsolete becuase nobody can track this spending. The government thinks the threat only comes from outside so when our election is blown up from Canadian IP addresses they will have no defence and may not even know it happened.

The most likely thing this fall is that the election will go to the one who spends the most on election manipulation online. I would bet on the right wing.

I'm talking about what the polling numbers indicate and how that will play out in October. The big money supported the Conservatives in 2015. They didn't win. The Liberals are also right wing so we agree in that the right wing wins. 

You say this The price of manipulation -- effective national manipulation -- is now in the hands of just about anyone. but that includes the left wing. 

No matter how overwhelming the messaging if it doesn't address what people are focused on in their day to day lives it will not resonate. 

You can convince people that Trudeau is crooked to the core but unless they think Scheer or Singh can deliver as much or more than Trudeau, Trudeau will win. 

Scheer is planning a new climate change plan and scrapping the carbon tax. He is flirting with the yellow vests. His dimples don't make him look charming they make him look like he is smirking in glee when delivering criticisms.  Trudeau bait this election will include pharmacare and he will brag about lifting children out of poverty. 

Hints of where Singh is going leave me hoping but not hopeful that he might manage to hold Trudeau to a minority and force a real pharmacare program or other progressive legislation but looking at the numbers I don't expect a new orange wave this election. 

 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

You are so thinking like it is 1999.

I wrote about this in another thread. People in Canada cannot see what is happening becuase the people and the government are focussing on the wrong thing.

That whole election manipulation thing? Yeah, it works. It is cheap.

For some reason the government is not clueing in to just how cheap -- like the part about you not needing a nation state to pull it off. The government and people are so secure in the fantasy that their greatest threat comes from outside Canada that they do not realize the world they now live in when it comes to politics. The price of manipulation -- effective national manipulation -- is now in the hands of just about anyone. Spending limits are obsolete becuase nobody can track this spending. The government thinks the threat only comes from outside so when our election is blown up from Canadian IP addresses they will have no defence and may not even know it happened.

The most likely thing this fall is that the election will go to the one who spends the most on election manipulation online. I would bet on the right wing.

I'm talking about what the polling numbers indicate and how that will play out in October. The big money supported the Conservatives in 2015. They didn't win. The Liberals are also right wing so we agree in that the right wing wins. 

You say this The price of manipulation -- effective national manipulation -- is now in the hands of just about anyone. but that includes the left wing. 

No matter how overwhelming the messaging if it doesn't address what people are focused on in their day to day lives it will not resonate. 

You can convince people that Trudeau is crooked to the core but unless they think Scheer or Singh can deliver as much or more than Trudeau, Trudeau will win. 

Scheer is planning a new climate change plan and scrapping the carbon tax. He is flirting with the yellow vests. His dimples don't make him look charming they make him look like he is smirking in glee when delivering criticisms.  Trudeau bait this election will include pharmacare and he will brag about lifting children out of poverty. 

Hints of where Singh is going leave me hoping but not hopeful that he might manage to hold Trudeau to a minority and force a real pharmacare program or other progressive legislation but looking at the numbers I don't expect a new orange wave this election.

What I am saying is the polling number of today are irrelevant as to what will happen in October.

The social manipulation may be cheap to get into but it is still competative. The right, which is wealthier will attack Trudeau and support the Conservatives. The left with attack Trudeau and support the NDP. The centre is boring and even if you can finance it, npbody will be interested. How do you think that will work out for Trudeau? Do you think the left will defend Trudeau???

As for climate initiatives, or any other, Trudeau is neutralized. The left will shred him as well as the right and nobody will believe him.

You better hope Singh does well. He might have a better chance than Trudeau. And it is maybe two snowball's chances in hell rather than Trudeau's one.

Buckle up. The Liberals blew this thing.

Paladin1

Pondering wrote:

Trudeau has an 8 point lead on Scheer. People are not happy about how Trudeau managed this which is reflected in Liberal party numbers but they still prefer him over Scheer meaning they will still vote Liberal. People thinking he should resign is just at 34% which isn't even all Conservative and NDP voters. That number is dropping because people are getting bored with the story. No sex. No money. No laws broken by PM or staff. 

I am not minimizing Trudeau's sins. I am commenting on the likely impact on the election not judging whether it is right or wrong. 

I think Liberal friendly outlets are telling people that people are bored with this story.

Nanos Research, Ipsos, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, Forum Research, Leger, Campaign Research all have the Conservatives ahead.

Trudeau hitting Scheer with a SLAPP lawsuit is going to look like rich well off Trudeau is trying to silence someone generally from the working class. That's going to keep snc in the news.

The Liberals are a cult now. They need to go, even if it means Conservatives in power for 4 years. Maybe when the Liberals pick a new leader they'll get another chance.

Sean in Ottawa

Paladin1 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Trudeau has an 8 point lead on Scheer. People are not happy about how Trudeau managed this which is reflected in Liberal party numbers but they still prefer him over Scheer meaning they will still vote Liberal. People thinking he should resign is just at 34% which isn't even all Conservative and NDP voters. That number is dropping because people are getting bored with the story. No sex. No money. No laws broken by PM or staff. 

I am not minimizing Trudeau's sins. I am commenting on the likely impact on the election not judging whether it is right or wrong. 

I think Liberal friendly outlets are telling people that people are bored with this story. Nanos Research, Ipsos, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, Forum Research, Leger, Campaign Research all have the Conservatives ahead. Trudeau hitting Scheer with a SLAPP lawsuit is going to look like rich well off Trudeau is trying to silence someone generally from the working class. That's going to keep snc in the news. The Liberals are a cult now. They need to go, even if it means Conservatives in power for 4 years. Maybe when the Liberals pick a new leader they'll get another chance.

I think many people are in shock. No, the news is not how crooked and arrogant the Liberals are. It is really the bush league incompetence. The Liberals used to be better at politics than they apparently are now.

Was everything that worked for Trudeau just coming out of his Gerald Butt?

Unionist

Sean - you're actually debating politics with Paladin? A troll in the service of firearms and the Conservative party? This must be the end of times.

Paladin1

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Paladin1 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Trudeau has an 8 point lead on Scheer. People are not happy about how Trudeau managed this which is reflected in Liberal party numbers but they still prefer him over Scheer meaning they will still vote Liberal. People thinking he should resign is just at 34% which isn't even all Conservative and NDP voters. That number is dropping because people are getting bored with the story. No sex. No money. No laws broken by PM or staff. 

I am not minimizing Trudeau's sins. I am commenting on the likely impact on the election not judging whether it is right or wrong. 

I think Liberal friendly outlets are telling people that people are bored with this story. Nanos Research, Ipsos, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, Forum Research, Leger, Campaign Research all have the Conservatives ahead. Trudeau hitting Scheer with a SLAPP lawsuit is going to look like rich well off Trudeau is trying to silence someone generally from the working class. That's going to keep snc in the news. The Liberals are a cult now. They need to go, even if it means Conservatives in power for 4 years. Maybe when the Liberals pick a new leader they'll get another chance.

I think many people are in shock. No, the news is not how crooked and arrogant the Liberals are. It is really the bush league incompetence. The Liberals used to be better at politics than they apparently are now.

Was everything that worked for Trudeau just coming out of his Gerald Butt?

 

I'd have to say I'm shocked at a few things. How blatently corrupt the liberal party is, how they don't seem to give a shit that people see it, AND, how their die hard fans can so easily shrug off corruption.  It seems like the rest of us people are finally not letting the Liberals change the channel after telling Canada 'nothing to see here'  So there's that.  They really do seem to be Bush league without the shadow-pm in office anymore. 

Paladin1

Unionist wrote:

Sean - you're actually debating politics with Paladin? A troll in the service of firearms and the Conservative party? This must be the end of times.

Did someone mention end of times? Gonna need guns for that  don't worry there's a growing movement of liberal peppers out there.

 

https://youtu.be/cSSFAGx3GNY

bekayne

Paladin1 wrote:

Unionist wrote:

Sean - you're actually debating politics with Paladin? A troll in the service of firearms and the Conservative party? This must be the end of times.

Did someone mention end of times? Gonna need guns for that  don't worry there's a growing movement of liberal peppers out there.

 

">https://youtu.be/cSSFAGx3GNY

Liberal peppers? What do they taste like?

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

What I am saying is the polling number of today are irrelevant as to what will happen in October.

The social manipulation may be cheap to get into but it is still competative. The right, which is wealthier will attack Trudeau and support the Conservatives. The left with attack Trudeau and support the NDP. The centre is boring and even if you can finance it, npbody will be interested. How do you think that will work out for Trudeau? Do you think the left will defend Trudeau???

As for climate initiatives, or any other, Trudeau is neutralized. The left will shred him as well as the right and nobody will believe him.

You better hope Singh does well. He might have a better chance than Trudeau. And it is maybe two snowball's chances in hell rather than Trudeau's one.

Buckle up. The Liberals blew this thing.

I definitely hope for Singh/NDP to make headway this election. What often happens with the Liberals being attacked by both left and right is Canadians decide that the Liberals are the happy inbetween. 

You are right that polls matter little this far out which is why I don't predict a Conservative win and I don't interpret as if people are voting tomorrow because when they answer these polls they know they are not voting tomorrow. 

The swing to the Conservatives is a reaction to the news but in my view it is preferred leader that will get the vote not party. You mentioned something in another thread suggesting that people vote party because when you were working in elections and the party wasn't mentioned that is what people would ask for. I think they asked for party affiliation because that would tell them the leader. It would be more awkward to phrase asking which representative was associated with which party leader. 

 

Pondering

Paladin1 wrote:

I think Liberal friendly outlets are telling people that people are bored with this story. Nanos Research, Ipsos, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, Forum Research, Leger, Campaign Research all have the Conservatives ahead. Trudeau hitting Scheer with a SLAPP lawsuit is going to look like rich well off Trudeau is trying to silence someone generally from the working class. That's going to keep snc in the news. The Liberals are a cult now. They need to go, even if it means Conservatives in power for 4 years. Maybe when the Liberals pick a new leader they'll get another chance.

It seems the lawsuit worked as despite Scheer's bring it on bravado he has not released the promised documents which were due 2PM Sunday, over 24 hours ago. What is Scheer's excuse for not releasing them and why isn't the MSM hounding him over it?

Pondering

Paladin1 wrote:

I'd have to say I'm shocked at a few things. How blatently corrupt the liberal party is, how they don't seem to give a shit that people see it, AND, how their die hard fans can so easily shrug off corruption.  It seems like the rest of us people are finally not letting the Liberals change the channel after telling Canada 'nothing to see here'  So there's that.  They really do seem to be Bush league without the shadow-pm in office anymore. 

Did the Conservative corruption of the Harper years not prepare you? I don't know who you are referring to as their supporters because the MSM seems to be gleefully doing a post mortem on every statement and JWR is their darling. 

They don't give a shit about who sees it just like the Conservatives didn't give a shit who saw it or who notices their racist dog whistles and pandering to corporations. 

The Liberals also didn't give a shit that 85% of Canadians were against them buying TM pipeline. I hope the NDP can make some headway on that fact. Get out the youth vote. 

By the "rest of us people" I am not sure who you mean. I noticed the polling companies are not registering "don't know about it don't care" votes on SNC. 

It is way too soon to be dancing on Trudeau's grave not because I want it to be that way, it's just the way I see it. In October people will still base their vote on economics. 

Butts may no longer be in office but that does not mean he isn't advising Trudeau from behind the scenes and getting paid for it in some manner eventually. 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

What I am saying is the polling number of today are irrelevant as to what will happen in October.

The social manipulation may be cheap to get into but it is still competative. The right, which is wealthier will attack Trudeau and support the Conservatives. The left with attack Trudeau and support the NDP. The centre is boring and even if you can finance it, npbody will be interested. How do you think that will work out for Trudeau? Do you think the left will defend Trudeau???

As for climate initiatives, or any other, Trudeau is neutralized. The left will shred him as well as the right and nobody will believe him.

You better hope Singh does well. He might have a better chance than Trudeau. And it is maybe two snowball's chances in hell rather than Trudeau's one.

Buckle up. The Liberals blew this thing.

I definitely hope for Singh/NDP to make headway this election. What often happens with the Liberals being attacked by both left and right is Canadians decide that the Liberals are the happy inbetween. 

You are right that polls matter little this far out which is why I don't predict a Conservative win and I don't interpret as if people are voting tomorrow because when they answer these polls they know they are not voting tomorrow. 

The swing to the Conservatives is a reaction to the news but in my view it is preferred leader that will get the vote not party. You mentioned something in another thread suggesting that people vote party because when you were working in elections and the party wasn't mentioned that is what people would ask for. I think they asked for party affiliation because that would tell them the leader. It would be more awkward to phrase asking which representative was associated with which party leader. 

 

A little scrambled. I said that people used to ask the name of their candidate as parties were not on the ballot. Party affiliation says a lot about a candidate. Given party loyalty in votes it certainly is more reliable in predicting how they will vote in the House than anything they could say. I said leader is secondary to party and candidate is third in my estimation of how people vote. The leader does have bearing on how well they sell the party of course and the promises do have some effect.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Paladin1 wrote:

I think Liberal friendly outlets are telling people that people are bored with this story. Nanos Research, Ipsos, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, Forum Research, Leger, Campaign Research all have the Conservatives ahead. Trudeau hitting Scheer with a SLAPP lawsuit is going to look like rich well off Trudeau is trying to silence someone generally from the working class. That's going to keep snc in the news. The Liberals are a cult now. They need to go, even if it means Conservatives in power for 4 years. Maybe when the Liberals pick a new leader they'll get another chance.

It seems the lawsuit worked as despite Scheer's bring it on bravado he has not released the promised documents which were due 2PM Sunday, over 24 hours ago. What is Scheer's excuse for not releasing them and why isn't the MSM hounding him over it?

Not clear at all. They may have decided to do this another time. Or they may have decided in light of the threat to have a lawyer go through them. does not mean that it "worked."

It does not even mean that these documents exist at all. Why trust either of these parties or leaders?

Pondering

Paladin1 wrote:

Unionist wrote:

Sean - you're actually debating politics with Paladin? A troll in the service of firearms and the Conservative party? This must be the end of times.

Did someone mention end of times? Gonna need guns for that  don't worry there's a growing movement of liberal peppers out there.

 

">https://youtu.be/cSSFAGx3GNY

Preppers not peppers! I thought you were referring to French Liberals!