Conservative leadership race #1

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Paladin1

I've spoken a few times now with Erin O'Toole and I like him. He seems pretty grounded and personalble. He lacks the reality TV drama that seems to be lauded over intelligence these days though so I can't see him winning the seat.  Maxime Bernier seems pretty solid too. I enjoy hearing him speak and look forward to hearing more from him. My conservative party vote would be between those two.   I find it piticularly embarassing how people are attacking Max over his accent.

Kellie went all in with her Canadian values platform and isn't able to do an about-face because of it. She's stuck riding it out.  At a theoretical level I somewhat agree with her premise.  People coming to Canada should share our value system. That is, I don't think they should support Shira law, think gays should be stoned to death, women need 4 witnesses to prove rape, honour killings, justify committing sexual assualt, stuff like that.  

Practically speaking it's not even remotely possible to screen for something like that. People can simply lie. She committed political suicide with that platform I think because it's all too easy for her opponents to peg her racist (which is dumb because that's actually a culture issue) and of course be called a Nazi or Trump ad nasium.

voice of the damned

Paladin wrote:

Practically speaking it's not even remotely possible to screen for something like that. People can simply lie.

At one point in the video, Leitch says something to the effect of "Right now, immigrants have to say that they accept Canadian values. Under my proposal, we'll make sure they believe it."

Short of employing Ministry Of Love Room 101 tactics, I have no idea how she thinks that's gonna be accomplished. And I'm doubting she does.

 

 

quizzical

i don't get this comment. you're making a hypothetical then kicking it down??

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I think VoD may be suggesting that there's simply no way to ensure that someone "believes" something, short of torturing them to the breaking point.  Ergo, Leitch is talking through her hat.

quizzical

ok

 

voice of the damned

Magoo wrote:

I think VoD may be suggesting that there's simply no way to ensure that someone "believes" something, short of torturing them to the breaking point.  Ergo, Leitch is talking through her hat.

Yes, that was it.

I guess there are situations where authorities rely on subjective interpretation to render judgments, eg. parole boards have to decide whether a prisoner sincerely regrets his actions, even though they have no way of reading his mind.

But I think in those cases, they take testimony from experts who have devoted a lot of time to working with the prisoner and analyzing his thoughts and emotions. I'm not sure if it would be possible to do that to every person who wants to move to Canada.

Also, I note that in the video, Leitch mentions "visitors" as among the people who should have to demonstrate their fidelity to Canadian values. Can't think of a more surefire way to kill the tourism industry.

 

 

 

Mobo2000

Sean:   RE: post 359

On political parties targeting the extreme 20-25% due to lowering voter turnout, I agree this dynamic is real, but I think it is situational and not likely to continue.  

I see the NDP’s  move to the middle as a response to an opportunity – the voters wanted anyone but Harper and the weak Liberals and Tom’s mostly excellent performance gave them a real shot at power.   They wanted to overcome the perception that they were poor economic managers and not “too radical” to be trusted with power.  It largely backfired on them because the moderate middle was ready for left economic policies and Keynesian spending and the Liberals did their typical swerve left end run.

In the case of the US, I think Trump has largely aimed his message at the moderate middle.   He made direct class based appeals to workers and entrepreneurs in his campaign, undeniably a large factor in his victory. 

I agree microtargeting is important, and that was a factor, but there was also just a competence gap.   The Liberal social media and on the ground campaign was terrifically organized and executed.   They spent a ton of money and got what they paid for.   I think this, the historical anti-NDP bias of corporate Canadian media, and Trudeau’s campaign performance were all big factors.

One other slightly related point – I think it is a mistake to think that low voter turnout will necessarily continue.   Canada is a stable rich country relatively free from political violence.   If that changes, or even seems likely to change, more people will become active politically.   Also, we may see that as the political parties polarize, voter turnout from moderates increases as well.

Overall great post, thanks, lots to think about.   Regarding your 3 types of conservatives, I think the 3rd option (religious right homophobe/sexist  but economically centrist) is least likely on the federal level, but I guess we’ll see.

josh

Leitch:  Firing a Nazi gun:

http://www.hilltimes.com/2017/03/28/leitch-pictured-firing-walther-p1-in...

And speaking to a group of anti-Muslim bigots seeking to stop the building of a mosque:

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/03/29/kellie-leitch-addresses-anti-mosque-group...

 

 

bekayne

http://www.canada.com/news/national/andrew+coyne+kevin+99leary+could+imp...

Suppose, for the sake of argument, Kevin O’Leary were not an idiot. 

 

bekayne

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/kevin-oleary-rebel-without-a-notw...

We could go on, but I’ve probably wasted enough of your time already with this man’s idiocies.

Kevin O’Leary doesn’t have a clue how the country he hopes to govern one day operates. Not a clue. While his delusional fantasies about how he would rule his kingdom may fly with members of the Conservative base, they are not rooted in any kind of reality. In fact, they are so detached from it, alarms should be ringing everywhere.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Kevin O’Leary doesn’t have a clue how the country he hopes to govern one day operates. Not a clue. While his delusional fantasies about how he would rule his kingdom may fly with members of the Conservative base, they are not rooted in any kind of reality. In fact, they are so detached from it, alarms should be ringing everywhere.

Nobody like that could reasonably hope to be chosen.

bekayne

Mr. Magoo wrote:

Quote:
Kevin O’Leary doesn’t have a clue how the country he hopes to govern one day operates. Not a clue. While his delusional fantasies about how he would rule his kingdom may fly with members of the Conservative base, they are not rooted in any kind of reality. In fact, they are so detached from it, alarms should be ringing everywhere.

Nobody like that could reasonably hope to be chosen.

And yet he's the front runner

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I was being facetious.  I recently read of some fellow just like him who grabbed the brass ring back in November.

Cody87

The second article is correctly listed as an opinion article, and that's fine. Why is the first opinion article, which requires a fantasy world set up, considered "news"?

I'm not saying he's wrong but there is a difference between news and opinion and when you start an article calling the front runner of a major party leadership race an idiot that is not news.

 

Edit: leaving the above for transparency, but after investigating I realized the original source of the first article was the FP comment (opinion) section. So please disregard me making a fool of myself :P

josh
Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Wilf Day wrote:

JKR wrote:
Jason Kenney? I think he's the current front runner to replace Harper.

 

Tomorrow's shuffle will show who's moving up, eh

I thought Kenney was still trying to "Unite the White" in Alberta(or something like that).

 

quizzical

ken he's been pretty much invisible in AB over the past couple of months since he won the PC leadership.

it must be hard work trying to legally create 1 party from 2 when you're not legally allowed to transfer assets from either to a new entity or something. it'd be interesting to see how they're quietly divesting the assets....

mark_alfred
quizzical

they must've found a way to divest their monies into 1 entity.

now can Kenney beat Jean or is it going to be the PC leadership race all over again?

josh

In this simulation it is O'Toole who drops off the 13th and final ballot. The fundraising data suggests that Bernier and Scheer split his voters, giving Bernier the win with 52.9 points to 47.1 points for Scheer. Bernier's wide advantage in Quebec, where he wins 74 per cent of the points, gives him the victory.

But this simulation presents a close enough margin — and alternative turning points — for it to easily go Scheer's way (or O'Toole's, if he is the last man standing with Bernier). In order to win in this simulation, Scheer would need to take 60 per cent of O'Toole's points. That is achievable. Bernier would need a bigger margin by the penultimate ballot to hold off a consolidation of Scheer's and O'Toole's voters.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-conservative-ballot-1.4125522

 

Cody87

I haven't paid any attention to the Conservative leadership race, but every time I hear that Scheer is competitive for leader it makes me wonder what's changed since he was speaker. The few times I saw him as speaker he always stood out to me as having less than no authority, like an awkward teenager trying to keep his drunken uncles from fighting at family reunions. Isn't he in his mid 30's? That seems really young for a social conservative party. And he's in the top three that the party has to run against Trudeau and whoever the NDP comes up with?

Hunky_Monkey

Scheer is 38.  Same age as Singh btw.  And Zoolander was 41 when elected leader of the Liberal Party.

Cody87

Hunky_Monkey wrote:

Scheer is 38.  Same age as Singh btw.  And Zoolander was 41 when elected leader of the Liberal Party.

Zoolander and Singh weren't/aren't running for social conservative parties who tend to appeal most to the 65+ voting bloc though. Regardless, I'll need to look into what exactly is the appeal of Scheer because prior to the start of the race I would have expected him to poll under 5%. And at his age he'll probably be back for their next leadership race too.

josh

For its final poll, from May 20 to 23, Mainstreet reached 12,840 party members and found — with a margin of error of +/- 0.84%, 19 times out of 20 — that 31.30 per cent are ranking Bernier first on their ballot while 17.20 per cent are picking Scheer first, followed by O’Toole (12.90 per cent), Chong (9.50 per cent) and Leitch (6.80 per cent).

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/05/25/bernier-has-85-per-cent-chance-of-winning-conservative-leadership-final-mainstreet-poll/

 

Debater

Voter breakdown will reveal the direction of the Conservative party as members elect their new leader

By Chantal Hébert

Fri., May 26, 2017

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/26/voter-breakdown-will-reve...

josh

Exciting race if anyone's paying attention.  Looks like it will come down to Bernier and Scheer and it's close.

josh

After trailing for 12 ballots, Scheer beats Bernier on the final ballot 51-49.

lagatta4

Well, while dairy farmers may breath a sigh of relief (how can Bernier sell that in his rural riding?) Scheer remains a woman-hating pile of manure who wants to make US into breed cows. Fuck the disgusting misogynist bastard and his ilk in all fundamentalist religious gangs. 

bekayne

lagatta4 wrote:

Well, while dairy farmers may breath a sigh of relief (how can Bernier sell that in his rural riding?) 

He couldn't; he only beat Scheer by 1% there

Unionist

Scheer is 38 years old, has five children (or, has been told by his wife that they're his... have to fact-check that), and opposes abortion. That much is for sure. The rest is sheer speculation.

Debater

So did the Conservatives make the right decision by picking Scheer over Bernier?

Some of the commentators are saying that Scheer is youthful, friendly, has a nice smile, etc. and that he will be a friendlier version of Stephen Harper.

Will it work?

Unionist

Debater wrote:
Some of the commentators are saying that Scheer is youthful, friendly, has a nice smile, etc. and that he will be a friendlier version of Stephen Harper.

I thought for a minute you were referring to Justin Trudeau.

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
So did the Conservatives make the right decision by picking Scheer over Bernier?

Some of the commentators are saying that Scheer is youthful, friendly, has a nice smile, etc. and that he will be a friendlier version of Stephen Harper.

Will it work?

I would concur with this line of reasoning. I thought Blaney and Leitch could both do damage for the Conservatives by tapping into that "if you don't love it, leave it" mentality that is spreading throughout the industrialized world. I think Scheer is in a position to effectively channel Donald Trump without sounding like him.

Debater

Yes, and Scheer may be able to get away with more socially conservative policies by being a friendlier messenger than some of the other candidates.

lagatta4

He's still women-hating filth. God, five kids already, nowadays. Must be a climate change denier as well... 

josh

bekayne wrote:

lagatta4 wrote:

Well, while dairy farmers may breath a sigh of relief (how can Bernier sell that in his rural riding?) 

He couldn't; he only beat Scheer by 1% there

He ended up losing the riding to Scheer.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/28/andrew-scheer-from-younge...

lagatta4

I detest Scheer (religious misogynist) but do confess I'm very happy to see Bernier's constituents vote him down. Beauce is part of the region on the south shore of the St. Lawrence opposite Québec city. It is named for a rich agricultural region in northwestern France, just southwest of Île de France, the Paris region. There are a lot of dairy farms in Québec's Beauce, and it is a region where "agrotourism" has also become popular. I wonder if the naming wasn't an early publicity stunt - several regions in the New World have been named for desirable areas in the settlers' countries of origin and the prospect of rich arable land would certainly have been a draw. 

Debater

Chantal Hébert's view:

The Conservatives have a new leader, but not the bigger tent they need

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/28/the-conservatives-have-a-...

lagatta4

Yes, I heard Chantal Hébert on Radio-Canada this morning. 

Oddly, Scheer's name comes from his Austrian Jewish grandfather:  http://ethnicelebs.com/andrew-scheer  And he's part Irish, isn't everyone? 

Hébert said the Qc vote for him was mostly farmers and others from rural milieux who opposed Bernier because of the supply management issue. And it isn't a lot of people, simply because there aren't many Cons in Qc. 

josh
Debater

Andrew Scheer has his work cut out to prevent Trudeau rebuilding Quebec fortress

By Chantal Hébert

Mon., May 29, 2017

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/05/29/andrew-scheer-has-his-wor...

Debater

Bernier camp casts doubt on Conservative leadership vote

The Globe and Mail

Friday, Jun. 02, 2017

A substantial discrepancy in the final ballot count at the Conservative leadership convention is threatening to spill into open revolt and undermine the electoral legitimacy of new leader Andrew Scheer.

Followers of Maxime Bernier are raising alarm bells about the gap between the votes cast and the final number announced at last weekend’s convention, where Mr. Scheer won a razor-thin victory over Mr. Bernier.

“Obviously it is concerning, but I am hoping that the party is working very hard to provide a satisfactory answer to the candidates and the party,” Conservative MP Tony Clement, a key player in the Bernier leadership team, told The Globe and Mail on Friday.

A Conservative Party whistleblower is expected to come forward on Monday with a sworn affidavit, detailing troubling questions about the results of the final vote, a member of the Bernier team told The Globe.

The dispute could jeopardize Mr. Scheer’s hold on the party leadership if Mr. Bernier – who has a large following among Conservatives – decides to publicly challenge the results. It may also be an indication that Mr. Bernier will not play the role of loyal soldier.

The Conservative Party says 141,362 voters were counted last Saturday, but the strikeout list sent to all the campaigns appear to show 133,896 votes tallied. There were 10,429 spoiled or incomplete ballots.

The Bernier camp wants to know why party director Dustin van Vugt ordered that all the ballots be destroyed immediately after the vote and why scrutineers were also not informed that there was a 7,466 vote discrepancy. Only 7,049 votes separated the two candidates on the final ballot.

“There are deep concerns that there are more than 7,000 more ballots in the ballot box than there were supposed to be, which is a big problem,” another senior Bernier adviser said, speaking on background. “Something went horribly wrong. That decision to destroy the ballots and not inform the scrutineers is a terrible decision.”

Full article:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/maxime-bernier-andrew-sche...

Debater

New concerns emerge over Conservative leadership voting process

The Globe and Mail

Sunday, Jun. 04, 2017

In an interview on Sunday, Mr. Bernier said the party must step forward and offer clear explanations on the voting process to all members.

“Is this a minor issue, is this not a minor issue? I want answers from the party,” Mr. Bernier said. “I think members have a right to know what happened and why there is a difference between the numbers of votes.”

. . .

One of the major concerns in the Bernier camp is that some Conservative members may have voted twice, once by mail and once at an in-person voting station.

In addition, the Bernier camp wants to know why David Filmon, the party's chief returning officer, ordered that all the ballots be destroyed immediately after the vote and why scrutineers were not informed of the discrepancy. The destruction of the ballots was anticipated, but the timing of the shredding is now in question.

There were a large number of calls for party “unity” before and after the results of the leadership race were announced. However, the position taken by Mr. Bernier and members of his team have sparked tensions in Conservative circles, with some rivals’ camps branding the situation on social media as a case of “sour grapes.”

At least one Conservative Party official is expected to come forward this week with a sworn affidavit detailing questions about the results of the final vote and the timing of the destruction of all of the ballots, sources said.

 

Full article:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/new-concerns-emerge-over-c...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If the result holds, does it help Caron's chances in the NDP leadership race? 

After all, parties with Quebec-based leaders almost always do better in Quebec than parties with non-Quebec leaders(to my knowledge, the last exception to this rule was the PC sweep in Quebec in 1958-and to get that Diefenbaker had to set up an alliance with Duplessis and the Union Nationale).

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
If the result holds, does it help Caron's chances in the NDP leadership race? 

After all, parties with Quebec-based leaders almost always do better in Quebec than parties with non-Quebec leaders(to my knowledge, the last exception to this rule was the PC sweep in Quebec in 1958-and to get that Diefenbaker had to set up an alliance with Duplessis and the Union Nationale).

Jean Charest barely made an impact in Quebec federally when he was leader. Jean Chretien came out of the 1993 election with nearly the identical seat count in Quebec that it had in 1984 and 1988, and only in 2000 did it come close to winning the most Quebec seats. Paul Martin in his 2 elections as Prime Minister saw reductions in the number of federal Liberal seats, which Dion was not able to improve on. Harper gained a respectable number of Conservative MPs in Quebec on his way in and the Conservative seat count in Quebec also increased on his way out. Jack Layton won a majority of Quebec seats in 2011, only for Mulcair to lose many of those MPs in 2015.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Sorry that I'd forgot Jack's breakthrough in 2011.  I always think of Jack as a leader with Quebec roots(his dad was a Tory MP from there, after all).

Diefenbaker, by contrast, had no personal connection with Quebec at all.

As to Charest, he was facing both Chretien and Lucien Bouchard(the guy who carried Quebec in '93).

I'm not supporting Caron(though he'd be ok in the job).  

I guess what I remember is how badly it always went for the NDP with Tommy D., David Lewis, and Broadbent.  It's hard to let go of the fear that ANOTHER NDP leader with no connections at all to Quebec would inevitably lead the party to a wipe-out there(Layton DID have deep ties to the place).

Rev Pesky

Well, that ballot thing has the potential to blow up. And Bernier is just the person who would do it. His loyalty is not to the party, his loyalty is to Ayn Rand and her hairbrained schemes.

Anyhow, it could be interesting. We'll see...

Debater

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