Dec 11 2017 By-Election Thread

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Mighty Middle
Dec 11 2017 By-Election Thread

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Mighty Middle

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the date of the federal by-elections for

  • the Newfoundland and Labrador riding of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
  • the British Columbia riding of South Surrey-White Rock
  • Saskatchewan's Battlefords-Lloydminster
  • Ontario's Scarborough-Agincourt on Sunday.

Debater

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity and Battlefords-Lloydminster should be pretty predictable.  The first should remain solidly Liberal and the second solidly Conservative.

It will be interesting to see if there are closer races in South Surrey-White Rock and Scarborough-Agincourt.

The Liberals placed a close 2nd to Dianne Watts in South Surrey-White Rock in 2015.  Will the Libs make an effort to win the seat?

And with Liberal numbers have fallen several points in Ontario, it's possible that the Conservatives could gain some ground in Scarborough-Agincourt.

josh

Guess I'll put this here:

Denis Lemieux, Liberal MP for Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has announced he'll be stepping down.

Mighty Middle

josh wrote:

Guess I'll put this here:

Denis Lemieux, Liberal MP for Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has announced he'll be stepping down.

He only beat NDP Dany Morin by 2% (600 votes) so maybe this could be a potential NDP pick-up.

Debater

Why is Denis Lemieux stepping down?

And yes, the race was close last time, but NDP numbers have fallen since then, so it might be more secure for the Liberals now.

Debater

Jean Yip was officially nominated today as the Liberal candidate in Scarborough—Agincourt:

https://twitter.com/SAFedLiberals/status/929795658646568961

https://twitter.com/JeanYip3/status/929841344310325248

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Why is Denis Lemieux stepping down?

And yes, the race was close last time, but NDP numbers have fallen since then, so it might be more secure for the Liberals now.

The decline in NDP numbers was in the polls taken during what we could now call the "Mulcair Twilight".  With something of an increase in party support since the election of a new, personally charismatic leader, it may be a different story...particulary if that leader chooses to spend a significant amount of time campaigning for in this riding.  

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection-there's no possibility of a Con gain in the riding and it wouldn't matter if the Cons DID gain it, because the Liberal majority is still solid and there won't be a federal election anytime soon.

 

Mighty Middle

Ken Burch wrote:

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection

Yes but the last by-election in Lac-Saint-Jean the narrative was framed "Do you want an MP in government or in opposition?" The Conservatives said they lost that by-election because the voters in Lac-Saint-Jean wanted an MP in government.

NorthReport

When there is a majority government few care about by-elections which usually have zero bearing on future general election results

Mighty Middle

Confirmed candidates

Running for the Liberals

Larry Ingram (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Jean Yip (Scarborough-Agincourt) , Churence Rogers (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Gordie Hogg (South Surrey-White Rock)

Running for the Conservatives

Rosemarie Falk (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Dasong Zou (Scarborough-Agincourt) and Mike Windsor (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Kerry-Lynne Findlay (South Surrey-White Rock)

Running for the NDP

Matt Felder (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Brian Chang (Scarborough-Agincourt), Tyler Downey (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Jonathan Silveira (South Surrey-White Rock)

brookmere

NorthReport wrote:
When there is a majority government few care about by-elections which usually have zero bearing on future general election results

From 2011 to 2015 only two seats changed hands in by-elections and both were Liberal gains. One was on the East Coast and one was in the City of Toronto, both areas where the Liberals won every seat in 2015.

WWWTT

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection

Yes but the last by-election in Lac-Saint-Jean the narrative was framed "Do you want an MP in government or in opposition?" The Conservatives said they lost that by-election because the voters in Lac-Saint-Jean wanted an MP in government.

And this is a very strong argument with merit! I never go more than say 3-4 years without contacting my MP,MPP regional councilors with issues that need to be resolved. This past year I have been in contact with all 3 levels. I even got into a direct argument with a couple and they fuckin hung the phone up on me!!! But that was a mayor and regional councilor and I hope they get their sorry asses voted out! That really freekin pissed me off!

If you vote for someone because they are the party in government, then that says something about our faulty system now doesn't it!

WWWTT

double post

Mighty Middle

The list for the candidates running for the NDP has been finalized. Though they are all men, the party did achieve its goal by seeking out candidates from "equity seeking groups" as candidate Brian Chang is both Asian and openly gay.

He was also Jagmeet Singh operations coordinator for his leadership run, and his candidacy was acclaimed with no nomination contest.

Running for the NDP

Matt Felder (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Brian Chang (Scarborough-Agincourt), Tyler Downey (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Jonathan Silveira (South Surrey-White Rock)

Sean in Ottawa

WWWTT wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection

Yes but the last by-election in Lac-Saint-Jean the narrative was framed "Do you want an MP in government or in opposition?" The Conservatives said they lost that by-election because the voters in Lac-Saint-Jean wanted an MP in government.

And this is a very strong argument with merit! I never go more than say 3-4 years without contacting my MP,MPP regional councilors with issues that need to be resolved. This past year I have been in contact with all 3 levels. I even got into a direct argument with a couple and they fuckin hung the phone up on me!!! But that was a mayor and regional councilor and I hope they get their sorry asses voted out! That really freekin pissed me off!

If you vote for someone because they are the party in government, then that says something about our faulty system now doesn't it!

It is also a bad way to look at things. If you consider your needs and values the right party or candidate may be more helpful. For example, during the last Conservative regime I had helped a number of people with immigration issues and had to appeal to MPs. This is one of the most significant jobs MPs have given how dysfunctional the CIC became (you could not reach them by phone -- not answered, they did not respond to mail, you were not allowed to walk into an office without appointment). The Conservative MPs tended to be unsympathetic and unhelpful. Both Liberal and NDP MPs were very helpful.

WWWTT

Oh I know all about Canadian immigration and it's faults. I've heard this numerous times and had a bad experience with those freekins jokers and clowns who are accountable to no one! I've even considered filling a law suite against them, but couldn't be bothered with the lengthy time it would have taken. Also because of the fact that Jason Kenney got personally involved with my case and ripped a new asshole in the Canadian immigration workers at the Canadian consulate in Hong Kong. Believe me, if Kyle Seeback wasn't my MP at the time, the immigration minister wouldn't have gotten involved. The previuos liberal MP Andrew Kania and staff were fuckin rude and did sweet shit nothing! Though mind you I should have asked Olivia Chow for help. She was an MP at the time and Jack was alive then. But we also had an election then(2011) and the lower house and their staff go awol once there's a rumour of an election! Oh believe me I know. I should be the one writing the book about it!

NorthReport

Looks like the Liberals will be gloating Monday nite as they are probably going to take Conservative Watt’s old riding in Surrey

Bad news for the PCs and NDP?

Maybe, but maybe not, as both opposition Leaders are relatively new and unknown 

SeekingAPolitic...

I will post all four.

NL 2015 Results  Bonavista-Burin-Trinity

Con        10.1    3,534

Green     0.8    2,557    

Lib         81.8  28,704

NDP        7.3    2,557

SeekingAPolitic...

ONT 2015 Results Scarborough-Agincourt

Con       15,802    38.0

Green        507       1.4

Lib          21,587     51.9

NDP         3,763      7.9

SeekingAPolitic...

SASK 2015 Results  Battleford-Lloydminster 

Con           20,547      61.0

Green            575         1.7

Lib              5,550       16.5

NDP           5,930       17.6

SeekingAPolitic...

BC  2015 Results  South Surrey-White Rock

Con         24,934      44.0

Green       1,938        3.4

Lib          23,495      41.5

NDP         5,895       10.4

SeekingAPolitic...

SeekingAPoliticalHome wrote:

I will post all four.

NL 2015 Results  Bonavista-Burin-Trinity

Con        10.1    3,534

Green     0.8    2,557    

Lib         81.8  28,704

NDP        7.3    2,557

--------------------------------------------------

Turn out 21.43 not counting people to registered today at the poll.

Con          22.9     2,878

Green        1.1         138

Liberal    69.2     8,717

Liberertarin   2.1      262

NDP    4.7    598

Debater

Yeah, it looks like a pretty uneventful night in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity.

Meanwhile, results are taking a while to come in from Scarborough—Agincourt.

Debater

Close race in South Surrey—White Rock.

Will the Liberals be able to maintain their lead?

Rev Pesky

Liberals take Surrey-White Rock, a pickup from the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the NDP went from 10.4% of the vote in 2015, to 4.9% in this byelection.

I understand the NDP was not going to win this riding. I don't understand why NDP leader Singh didn't even bother to visit the riding. I mean, he's running around the country, so why not stop in and fly the flag. 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if most of the vote that left the NDP went to the Liberals, and gave them the riding. In the overall scheme of things that doesn't change much, except to give the Tories a bit of a hurt. Likewise, if the Tories had won, it wouldn't mean much in that it was their riding to begin with.

But elections, even byelections, give politicians chances to get their picture in the paper, and gets their thoughts and opinions into print. The fact that Singh didn't take the opportunity to get a bit of that publicity is not a good sign, as far as I'm concerned. 

josh

Singh-mania is sweeping the country.

Mighty Middle

Rev Pesky wrote:

I understand the NDP was not going to win this riding. I don't understand why NDP leader Singh didn't even bother to visit the riding. I mean, he's running around the country, so why not stop in and fly the flag.

I was wondering that too. The only thing that I could think of was cost. The NDP is in major debt and needs to raise money. Maybe they just did not have the funds for Jagmeet to visit the riding.

R.E.Wood

josh wrote:

Singh-mania is sweeping the country.

I feel it, too. ;-)

But seriously, comparing the percentages of vote in the last election to this byelection shows the NDP down across the board. Sure, they were just byelections. Sure the NDP wasn't going to win any of them. But to see our numbers plummeting everywhere, must raise some pretty loud alarm bells. 

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity  7.3 -> 4.9  (down 35.62%)

Scarborough-Agincourt  7.9 -> 5.1  (down 35.44%)

Battlefords-Lloyd Minster  17.6 -> 13.2  (down 25%)

South Surrey-White Rock  10.4 -> 4.9  (down 52.88%)

Average decrease in NDP vote share is 37.24%. That's terrible.

R.E.Wood

NDP support drops in Singh's 1st real test

"Things might have turned out better for him (Scheer) had the night not been so disappointing for the NDP's newly minted leader, Jagmeet Singh. NDP support dropped in all four ridings, dashing any hopes the Conservatives might have had that Singh could peel voters away from the Liberals, particularly in suburban Toronto and the Greater Vancouver region. ...

The New Democrats haven't yet had to defend one of their own seats in byelections. But Monday's vote posed the first real test for Singh, who became leader after the kickoff of the last set of byelection campaigns in October.

The party dropped an average of 3.8 points across the four ridings, a worse result than the NDP's 2.2-point decrease in four byelections in April when the party was in the midst of its leadership campaign.

The 2.8-point loss in Scarborough–Agincourt, in the city where Singh was born, and the 5.5-point slide in South Surrey–White Rock, in a province that is key to the NDP's electoral hopes in 2019, should be disappointing for the party as the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas are where Singh has the most promise for NDP gains in the next election.

Though the NDP retained its second-place showing in Battlefords–Lloydminster, the only silver lining for the party on Monday, it was with its worst result there in its modern boundaries. The party's scores in South Surrey–White Rock and Scarborough–Agincourt were the lowest since 1993 and 2000, respectively, the two worst elections in the party's history."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-dec-byelection-results-1.4443695 

Pondering

It seems the pipeline isn't an issue for White Rock. :(

progressive17 progressive17's picture

These are dismal results for the NDP.
 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

South Surrey White Rock is unwinnable for the NDP because of demographics. But this riding more than most highlights the old adage, Liberal Tory same old story. The newly minted Liberal MP is a retread from the BC Liberal party that was one of the most corrupt in our provinces history. Meanwhile the Conservative MP he replaces is running for the leadership of the BC Liberals. That is real progress for progressive politics in this country. LMAOROF

Unlike the rest of Surrey, South Surrey White Rock is one of the richest and whitest ridings in the province. The NDP has never had a chance with the rich people who make up the majority of the residents.  The pipeline is certainly not an issue because any spill would be far away from White Rock and would not affect their waterfront and waterview property values. 

http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/pa...

Rev Pesky

From kropotkin1951:

South Surrey White Rock is unwinnable for the NDP because of demographics.

I think that's true, but it doesn't explain why Singh didn't take the opportunity of a byelection to try speak to the voters of BC; and it doesn't explain why the NDP vote was cut in half.

Debater

Liberals’ byelection wins signal problems for Singh and Scheer

The Conservative and NDP parties thought buyers’ remorse was about to catch up to the Liberals. But if there is any remorse it pertains to the opposition parties and their leadership choices, Chantal Hébert writes.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/12/12/liberals-byelection-wins-...

Mighty Middle

Rev Pesky wrote:

From kropotkin1951:

South Surrey White Rock is unwinnable for the NDP because of demographics.

I think that's true, but it doesn't explain why Singh didn't take the opportunity of a byelection to try speak to the voters of BC; and it doesn't explain why the NDP vote was cut in half.

Ken Burch wrote in another thread about Jagmeet not showing up during the by-election

Ken Burch wrote:

Possibly he's been told the byelections won't go well and wants to distance himself from the results if they're disappointing.

pietro_bcc

I was told that Trudeau and the Liberals were scared of Singh... I'm sure Trudeau is shaking in his boots right now.

The media built Singh up as the NDP's answer to Trudeau, by writing countless fluff pieces about him and declaring him winner of the leadership before he even joined the race. Now they will tear him down.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The NDP in that riding had 19.2% in 2011 and 10.4% in 2015 and 4.9% in the by-election. Whose fault is the declining NDP vote in this riding?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Surrey%E2%80%94White_Rock

Mobo2000

Singh travelled a lot for the leadership campaign as well, he may have needed some down time.    And I'm sure money was a big factor.   Singh needs a lot of time to build his profile and he's gotten off to a better start than any NDP leader I can remember.   Jack was great but he hugely benefited from the Liberal leaders at the time being atypically weak.  I think much of the NDP's fortunes now and for the next 2 years are in Trudeau's hands.

Rev Pesky

From kropotkin1951:

Whose fault is the declining NDP vote in this riding?

Well, we know that Mulcair, and his campaign, were blamed for the losses of the 2015  election. That was the reason for sending him to pasture, and electing a new leader. The new leader was supposed to fix things; get the NDP out of the stodgy old past into the bright new future.

Now, if it was only this riding where the NDP lost support, it could be for a number of reasons. But they lost support across the board. They lost support in every riding byelection.

I don't think it's so much who to blame, as to ask, what has Singh done for the party?

Pondering

Rev Pesky wrote:

From kropotkin1951:

Whose fault is the declining NDP vote in this riding?

Well, we know that Mulcair, and his campaign, were blamed for the losses of the 2015  election. That was the reason for sending him to pasture, and electing a new leader. The new leader was supposed to fix things; get the NDP out of the stodgy old past into the bright new future.

Now, if it was only this riding where the NDP lost support, it could be for a number of reasons. But they lost support across the board. They lost support in every riding byelection.

I don't think it's so much who to blame, as to ask, what has Singh done for the party?

He assumed office on October 1st. Maybe he should be given a few more months (years) before being held responsible for the fortunes of the NDP.

Mighty Middle

On Power and Politics the NDP pundit Kathleen Monk said when (not if but when) the NDP wins a majority government, these four ridings wouldn't even be part of their majority. So they didn't really lose anything last night.

Debater

That's an interesting spin from Kathleen Monk.

Mobo2000

I like it.   Eyes on the prize!

WWWTT

Run up to legalization of marijuana in Canada. Don’t expect a shake up. After pot is legalized, start expecting to see some real pushes from Singh and Scheer. And a shift in poll numbers. Don’t let this bielection get you down. There’s really no point in wasting ammo right now. 

For me it’s disappointing to see There’s still a big chunk of Canadians that are flakes and lack vision.  

brookmere

Mighty Middle wrote:
these four ridings wouldn't even be part of their majority. So they didn't really lose anything last night

The fallacy here is not recognizing that the NDP voting demographic in the Surrey and Scarbough ridings, albeit small, is likely representative of the NDP voting demographic in neighbouring ridings which the NDP must win.

Rev Pesky

From brookemere:

The fallacy here is not recognizing that the NDP voting demographic in the Surrey and Scarbough ridings, albeit small, is likely representative of the NDP voting demographic in neighbouring ridings which the NDP must win.

I have just been looking over riding by riding results of the elections of 2011 (where the NDP did  very well), and the election of 2015, where they did poorly.

Your analysis looks correct to me, in that the NDP vote dropped across the board. There may have been some ridings with special local factors, but generally, the NDP lost votes in ridings they had not won, as well as ridings they had won.

So Kathleen Monk's spin is just that, spin. It's true that if you subtracted all the votes you got from ridings you lost, you'd still have the same number of seats, but that's not the way it works. In reality, your vote rises and falls as a tide, not a series of puddles.

Pondering

WWWTT wrote:
For me it’s disappointing to see There’s still a big chunk of Canadians that are flakes and lack vision.  

That attitude does not serve the left. That people don't see what you see doesn't make them flakes lacking vision. It would be more constructive to figure out why they vote the way they do and what has to change to bring those people to the left.

If the left genuinely believes that leftist policy would improve the lives of the 99% then all that is needed is a means of convincing others that their lives would be improved under the policies proposed by the left.

Failure to convince people of your argument is not on them.                  

progressive17 progressive17's picture

WWWTT wrote:

Run up to legalization of marijuana in Canada. Don’t expect a shake up. After pot is legalized, start expecting to see some real pushes from Singh and Scheer. And a shift in poll numbers. Don’t let this bielection get you down. There’s really no point in wasting ammo right now. 

For me it’s disappointing to see There’s still a big chunk of Canadians that are flakes and lack vision.  

Never blame the voters if your party loses. It is a democracy, and they made their decision, whether you like it or not. Respect the wishes of the voters, or how can you call yourself a democrat, let alone a New Democrat?

Calling voters idiots is not going to attract any to your cause. Find out why you lost, and fix it.

I saw Kathleen Monk saying what was quoted above. The NDP has to at least pretend that it will be competitive in every riding in Canada. Even if you know it is likely you are going to lose, you have to say you are going to win. Otherwise you are going to demoralize your loyalists and volunteers. 

R.E.Wood

The party has sent out a fundraising email tonight that reads:

NDP

_______,

Yesterday we suffered some hard losses in four by-elections across Canada. We had four great candidates with incredible teams, and so many dedicated volunteers – but we were outspent.

Days like this are frustrating, but I can already see the renewed energy in our party. With Jagmeet's unique ability to connect with people, our energized caucus, and active members ready to grow our movement, I already see a change, _______.

But we can't be outspent like this again – we need to be ready. That's why we're committed to getting $50,000 in the bank by Thursday. _______, will you chip in $250 today to help?

I don't like losing, _______, and we have a plan to change things – it starts with using some of our winning tactics from Jagmeet's leadership campaign to strengthen our team.

On the digital side, that means innovative tools that will change the way we organize and connect with people. But to implement those tools across Canada, we need to hit our end-of-year fundraising goal – and right now we need you to help out.

_______, will you give $250 today – and get $___ back at tax time? Help us hit our goal of $50,000 by Thursday and chip in:

ndp.ca/end-of-year

Thanks,

Nader

Nader Mohamed
Digital Director
Canada's NDP

Does anyone else find it ridiculous that they're claiming they lost in all 4 byelections because they didn't have enough money? That I need to pay for them to do better?! When Singh didn't even bother campaigning in the ridings. Screw that - they're not getting any more of my money. 

bekayne

Mighty Middle wrote:

On Power and Politics the NDP pundit Kathleen Monk said when (not if but when) the NDP wins a majority government, these four ridings wouldn't even be part of their majority. So they didn't really lose anything last night.

If you're getting 5%  in ridings like these, you're nowhere close to a majority government.

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