Dec 11 2017 By-Election Thread

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Mighty Middle
Dec 11 2017 By-Election Thread

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Mighty Middle

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the date of the federal by-elections for

  • the Newfoundland and Labrador riding of Bonavista-Burin-Trinity
  • the British Columbia riding of South Surrey-White Rock
  • Saskatchewan's Battlefords-Lloydminster
  • Ontario's Scarborough-Agincourt on Sunday.

Debater

Bonavista-Burin-Trinity and Battlefords-Lloydminster should be pretty predictable.  The first should remain solidly Liberal and the second solidly Conservative.

It will be interesting to see if there are closer races in South Surrey-White Rock and Scarborough-Agincourt.

The Liberals placed a close 2nd to Dianne Watts in South Surrey-White Rock in 2015.  Will the Libs make an effort to win the seat?

And with Liberal numbers have fallen several points in Ontario, it's possible that the Conservatives could gain some ground in Scarborough-Agincourt.

josh

Guess I'll put this here:

Denis Lemieux, Liberal MP for Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has announced he'll be stepping down.

Mighty Middle

josh wrote:

Guess I'll put this here:

Denis Lemieux, Liberal MP for Chicoutimi–Le Fjord has announced he'll be stepping down.

He only beat NDP Dany Morin by 2% (600 votes) so maybe this could be a potential NDP pick-up.

Debater

Why is Denis Lemieux stepping down?

And yes, the race was close last time, but NDP numbers have fallen since then, so it might be more secure for the Liberals now.

Debater

Jean Yip was officially nominated today as the Liberal candidate in Scarborough—Agincourt:

https://twitter.com/SAFedLiberals/status/929795658646568961

https://twitter.com/JeanYip3/status/929841344310325248

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Why is Denis Lemieux stepping down?

And yes, the race was close last time, but NDP numbers have fallen since then, so it might be more secure for the Liberals now.

The decline in NDP numbers was in the polls taken during what we could now call the "Mulcair Twilight".  With something of an increase in party support since the election of a new, personally charismatic leader, it may be a different story...particulary if that leader chooses to spend a significant amount of time campaigning for in this riding.  

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection-there's no possibility of a Con gain in the riding and it wouldn't matter if the Cons DID gain it, because the Liberal majority is still solid and there won't be a federal election anytime soon.

 

Mighty Middle

Ken Burch wrote:

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection

Yes but the last by-election in Lac-Saint-Jean the narrative was framed "Do you want an MP in government or in opposition?" The Conservatives said they lost that by-election because the voters in Lac-Saint-Jean wanted an MP in government.

NorthReport

When there is a majority government few care about by-elections which usually have zero bearing on future general election results

Mighty Middle

Confirmed candidates

Running for the Liberals

Larry Ingram (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Jean Yip (Scarborough-Agincourt) , Churence Rogers (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Gordie Hogg (South Surrey-White Rock)

Running for the Conservatives

Rosemarie Falk (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Dasong Zou (Scarborough-Agincourt) and Mike Windsor (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Kerry-Lynne Findlay (South Surrey-White Rock)

Running for the NDP

Matt Felder (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Brian Chang (Scarborough-Agincourt), Tyler Downey (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Jonathan Silveira (South Surrey-White Rock)

brookmere

NorthReport wrote:
When there is a majority government few care about by-elections which usually have zero bearing on future general election results

From 2011 to 2015 only two seats changed hands in by-elections and both were Liberal gains. One was on the East Coast and one was in the City of Toronto, both areas where the Liberals won every seat in 2015.

WWWTT

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection

Yes but the last by-election in Lac-Saint-Jean the narrative was framed "Do you want an MP in government or in opposition?" The Conservatives said they lost that by-election because the voters in Lac-Saint-Jean wanted an MP in government.

And this is a very strong argument with merit! I never go more than say 3-4 years without contacting my MP,MPP regional councilors with issues that need to be resolved. This past year I have been in contact with all 3 levels. I even got into a direct argument with a couple and they fuckin hung the phone up on me!!! But that was a mayor and regional councilor and I hope they get their sorry asses voted out! That really freekin pissed me off!

If you vote for someone because they are the party in government, then that says something about our faulty system now doesn't it!

WWWTT

double post

Mighty Middle

The list for the candidates running for the NDP has been finalized. Though they are all men, the party did achieve its goal by seeking out candidates from "equity seeking groups" as candidate Brian Chang is both Asian and openly gay.

He was also Jagmeet Singh operations coordinator for his leadership run, and his candidacy was acclaimed with no nomination contest.

Running for the NDP

Matt Felder (Battlefords-Lloydminster), Brian Chang (Scarborough-Agincourt), Tyler Downey (Bonavista-Burin-Trinity), Jonathan Silveira (South Surrey-White Rock)

Sean in Ottawa

WWWTT wrote:

Mighty Middle wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

If nothing else, there's not going to be any argument the Liberals can make for "strategic voting" by progressives in this byelection

Yes but the last by-election in Lac-Saint-Jean the narrative was framed "Do you want an MP in government or in opposition?" The Conservatives said they lost that by-election because the voters in Lac-Saint-Jean wanted an MP in government.

And this is a very strong argument with merit! I never go more than say 3-4 years without contacting my MP,MPP regional councilors with issues that need to be resolved. This past year I have been in contact with all 3 levels. I even got into a direct argument with a couple and they fuckin hung the phone up on me!!! But that was a mayor and regional councilor and I hope they get their sorry asses voted out! That really freekin pissed me off!

If you vote for someone because they are the party in government, then that says something about our faulty system now doesn't it!

It is also a bad way to look at things. If you consider your needs and values the right party or candidate may be more helpful. For example, during the last Conservative regime I had helped a number of people with immigration issues and had to appeal to MPs. This is one of the most significant jobs MPs have given how dysfunctional the CIC became (you could not reach them by phone -- not answered, they did not respond to mail, you were not allowed to walk into an office without appointment). The Conservative MPs tended to be unsympathetic and unhelpful. Both Liberal and NDP MPs were very helpful.

WWWTT

Oh I know all about Canadian immigration and it's faults. I've heard this numerous times and had a bad experience with those freekins jokers and clowns who are accountable to no one! I've even considered filling a law suite against them, but couldn't be bothered with the lengthy time it would have taken. Also because of the fact that Jason Kenney got personally involved with my case and ripped a new asshole in the Canadian immigration workers at the Canadian consulate in Hong Kong. Believe me, if Kyle Seeback wasn't my MP at the time, the immigration minister wouldn't have gotten involved. The previuos liberal MP Andrew Kania and staff were fuckin rude and did sweet shit nothing! Though mind you I should have asked Olivia Chow for help. She was an MP at the time and Jack was alive then. But we also had an election then(2011) and the lower house and their staff go awol once there's a rumour of an election! Oh believe me I know. I should be the one writing the book about it!