Don't underestimate Justin Trudeau

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takeitslowly
Don't underestimate Justin Trudeau

Justin Trudeau is very popular. He has 223k followers on Facebook and a recent picture of him and his family generated over 5k likes. Tom Mulcair only has 52k facebook likes.

 

I just want to make sure we get the full perspective despite everything that happened, the liberals still pose a major threats to progressive people.

takeitslowly

According to Facebook Stats,

 

Justin Trudeau: 223,589 Total Page  Likes 1.1% (increase) from last week -18,979 People Talking About This

He is still getting increase in likes, not a decrease.

 

Tom Mulcair 52,071 Total Page Likes  1.5%  (increase)  from last week - 8,115 People Talking About This

NorthReport

Election 2015 is the NDP’s to lose (and they might

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/06/in-this-weeks-hill-times-election-2015...

Geoff

I guess Warren Kinsella's sage, non-partisan advice should be heeded.Laughing

NorthReport

Very well said.

Warren Kinsella ran Chretien's war room. 

DaveW

one of the weakest parts of debate at Babble is the number of people who dismiss an argument with "consider the source". OK fine, but consider the ARGUMENT, too.

the guy above, despite his past, makes some excellent points: after 2011, the NDP and allies went on quite a losing streak, including the BC NDP fiasco and the Toronto mayoral election. There was no "momentum" federally; in the wake of Justin, we dipped to the low 20s nationally and 3rd place, and slipped in Quebec.

The NDP has sharply recovered in the last 3-4 months, accelerating in the wake of Alberta. But nothing at all is won yet.

I realized this when I sent a link for the Wiki poll aggregators (posted in the polls thread) to a friend in the U.K., with the note: "Conservatives sure to lose; but you've heard that before, eh?"

It is a long campaign, so I prefer a cold shower now to empty rah-rah about NDP prospects.

To conclude: could Justin regain some mojo? A.: who knows?

DaveW

worth noting:

just 9 months ago, the Justin Liberals ran ahead of the NDP by a 2:1 margin, 40 to 20 pc:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_42nd_Canadian_feder...

socialdemocrati...

Strongly agree. The NDP is at its best when it works hard for peoples' votes. Leave the entitlement and arrogance to the other parties.

Sean in Ottawa

I agree as well. I also did not have much trouble with Kinsella's article. While sometimes I disagree with him I often find myself agreeing with his analysis. He may be a supporter of another party but he is not always biased in his conclusions. There are times he points out things few others are saying. I suspect there are times he wants to warn the Liberals they are making a mistake as well.

Anyone who knows me personally would know that I have no reaosn to be biased in his favour.

takeitslowly

This was posted just 5 hours ago on Trudeau's facebook page

It has over 3000 likes

 

Geoff

takeitslowly wrote:

This was posted just 5 hours ago on Trudeau's facebook page

It has over 3000 likes

 

He does take a nice photo.  I like his hair, too.  Sorry, what's his name again.?

mark_alfred

takeitslowly wrote:

This was posted just 5 hours ago on Trudeau's facebook page

It has over 3000 likes

 

Justin Bieber also posted a photo several hours ago and it has over 300,000 likes. 

NorthReport

It's very effective.

Don't underestimate the power of visuals.

Many people are influenced more by images than the written word.

When he came to BC last he was out on a boat in English Bay saying Liberals will restore the Coast guard station. More BCers will remember that picture than Mulcair saying the same thing.

Trudeau is playing the game and Mulcair needs to pay attention to that.  

 

takeitslowly

Yes. Its corporate advertisment.  It reminds me of Hillary Clinton's face book page. It is very flashy, very visual and has alot of smilie faces, alot of hype but little substance.

socialdemocrati...

Symbols do mean something. As progressives, we're not immune to them. There are issues where we have little impact (particularly the foreign policy of a relatively small country, with a small military, and small trade impact), but we care about them very much. Especially in contrast with Stephen Harper, seeing a political leader share a touching moment with an aboriginal leader means *something*.

 

NorthReport

Agree about the contrast.

---------------------------------

Big money go to Madison Avenue because advertising works. That's why with their almost unlimited amounts of money the Cons think they can still win.

Leftfield

There are a few trends here at play.  First, I think it's fair to say that Harper is past his "sell by" date - Canadians may decide to put that old milk back in the fridge but I doubt it.  I'm guessing Mike Duffy sings like a canary and stories of Tory corruption will stick.

So the campaign will matter and drive the trend that determines the election.  If the issue is "Tories are corrupt" this favours Mulcair, if the issue is "Harper is an a-hole" I think it favours Trudeau because of his presentable, nice guy image.  Elections are rarely settled in terms of right or left, and I don't think swing voters have parked their support yet.

We're really in a scenario when any of the three, or someone else could be PM of a minority government at this time next year.  I'd love to know the backroom chatter about coalition scenarios although I know that publically nobody will talk about it.

Leftfield

[accidental double]

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Since I don't actually "do" facebook I will have to ask if this appears as well:

Harper @ T&R ceremony

or are not all photo-ops equal?

NorthReport

Superb bagkitty! Laughing

Pondering

Geoff wrote:

takeitslowly wrote:

This was posted just 5 hours ago on Trudeau's facebook page

It has over 3000 likes

 

He does take a nice photo.  I like his hair, too.  Sorry, what's his name again.?

I don't think most Canadians have any trouble identifying Trudeau in the photo. The photo undermines the NDP narrative that Trudeau is too elite therefore distant from ordinary Canadians. It speaks of mutual affection and respect. Looking at it from the perspective of image building it couldn't be more perfect. Trudeau's position is natural, the pose unstudied, a candid moment of intimacy caught by the camera. The feathers she is holding makes it appear like a formal celebration of some sort. It crosses boundries of age, sex and wealth. I can't imagine either Harper or Mulcair in such a pose.

Kinsella is obviously deeply resentful of being rejected as a Liberal candidate. He should be embarrassed.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2015/06/in-this-weeks-hill-times-election-2015...

Justin Trudeau: The Liberal leader peaked too soon, of that there can be no doubt. The myriad verbal flubs, the near-total absence of policy, the astonishing arrogance of his inner circle, the consensus that he “just isn’t ready,” and so on: all these factors have contributed to Trudeau’s current dilemma. No longer can he claim to be the only progressive alternative to Stephen Harper — after Alberta, now Thomas Mulcair can say that, too. But be forewarned, Team Orange: Trudeau seems to excel when he is underestimated. Don’t underestimate him. Patrick Brazeau did, too, remember?

He didn't peak too early. That has yet to be determined. I think Trudeau and his team knew they could not keep up the hype for the full two years running up to the election so they deliberately pulled back and kept kept his head down most of the time. They kept his name lightly in the news. They deliberately cultivated a situation in which he would be underestimated. He has been building support amongst community groups as he has traveled the country.

What consensus that he "just isn't ready"? That is the Conservative attack angle not a "consensus".  He never claimed to be the only progressive alternative to Stephen Harper. He said from the beginning that he intends to be the best option of all based on policy. He specifically repudiated the "anybody but Harper" campaign approach.

The one correct part of this comment is "don't underestimate him". 

The accusations of having no policy will be impotent the moment he releases his platform.

Angry Tom: Mulcair’s style — righteous indignation and finger-pointing prosecutorial anger — shouldn’t have worked, but it did. Mulcair was angry about everything at precisely the moment voters were, too. He aligned with the popular mood. But be careful, Dippers: TV is a cool medium, and so is politics, most days. Mulcair is the opposition leader: don’t have him audition in the election for the job he already has.

Except political commentators seem to be the only ones who see the "Angry Tom" caricature. There is zero evidence that Canadians themselves have this impression of Tom. In fact polls have consistently shown that people are either unaware of him or have a fairly position perception of him. The negative impact of the "angry Tom" meme seems to be a wholely imaginary figment of the MSMs imagination.

The research: Innumerable focus groups have been conducted in recent months. Out of these, moderators have distilled the three main party leaders down to their base elements: Harper is “experienced and serious.” Trudeau is “progressive and new.” Mulcair is “serious and progressive.” That is why you are ahead these days, federal New Democrats: your leader can say he possesses positive attributes of the other two guys — but the other two can’t say that, at all. Keep it that way, from now until Election Day.

Anyone claiming that here would be besieged by requests for links.

The media: The Grit boss had an 18-month-long honeymoon, and then he didn’t. Chinese dictatorship, whip out your CF-18, budgets balancing themselves, Ukraine jokes, and on and on: all of those rookie errors, and more, have taken their toll. The news media now agree — Justin Trudeau might be Prime Minister one day — but he shouldn’t be Prime Minister this year, because he isn’t ready. New Democrats need to ratify the Conservative shorthand on Justin Trudeau — because they benefit from it almost as much. Don’t let the media change their collective view.

Because the media should dictate who wins elections? He didn't have an 18 month long honeymoon. The press has been hounding him for policy and publicizing his so called "gaffes" for far longer than that. There is no evidence that is impacting his numbers. I think his supposed lack of platform is what has been hurting his numbers. Supporters need concrete reasons to explain their support. Now that he is starting to roll it out his numbers will begin to rise. 

Will New Democrats heed the cautionary tales of Chow and Dix and others? Will they maintain the gifts they’ve received from Trudeau and the unions and their leader and the media?

We’ll see soon enough. But, for now, Election 2015 is theirs to lose.

(And they might.)

It's not anyone's to lose at this point. Same goes for when pundits were saying that about Trudeau. Campaigns matter.

 

mark_alfred

Pondering wrote:
I think his supposed lack of platform is what has been hurting his numbers. Supporters need concrete reasons to explain their support. Now that he is starting to roll it out his numbers will begin to rise. 

His numbers started to go down at the same time that he released some of the planks of his upcoming platform.  The Liberals are in third place nationally now in the latest EKOS poll.

wage zombie

Pondering told us that the NDP's ceiling was 23%.  LOL

Pondering

wage zombie wrote:

Pondering told us that the NDP's ceiling was 23%.  LOL

Who here has never been wrong about anything? "LOL".  He who laughs last laughs best.

Do compare the pictures of Harper and Trudeau.

 

NorthReport

As long as you say that Pondering I am then convinced that probably the opposite will occur.  Sorry but from the history of your posting record here it's true.  Laughing

Some Liberal polling history for you:

GE '11 - 19%

Dec '11 - 25%

Jun '12 - 24%

Dec '12 - 24%

Apr '13 - Trudeau annointed Liberal Leader just like Ignatieff and Martin before him

May '13 - 35% - wow!

Oct '13 - 37% - amazin'

Jan '14 - 33% - oops!

May '14 - 35% - wow!

Oct '14 - 33% - oops!

Dec '14 - 32% - oh!

Feb '15 - 32%

Mar '15 - 31% - oh, oh!

Apr '15 - 29%, oh, my!

May '15 - 26% - what the.....!

Jun '15 -24% - disaster has now set in, the Liberals are heading South in a hurry crashing and burning all the way down to only 5% above their worst ever election results in 2011

Carry on with your utter bullshit if you must, but don't expect to have any credibility here whatsoever. 

 

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Pondering wrote:
I think his supposed lack of platform is what has been hurting his numbers. Supporters need concrete reasons to explain their support. Now that he is starting to roll it out his numbers will begin to rise. 

His numbers started to go down at the same time that he released some of the planks of his upcoming platform.  The Liberals are in third place nationally now in the latest EKOS poll.

His numbers have been going down for months, where have you been hiding?

Paladin1

Does it look like the Conservatives will win again?

Leftfield

Paladin1 wrote:

Does it look like the Conservatives will win again?

 

Seat count? Yes.  Majority of seats/balance of power? Doesn't look like it.

mark_alfred

Pondering wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

Pondering wrote:
I think his supposed lack of platform is what has been hurting his numbers. Supporters need concrete reasons to explain their support. Now that he is starting to roll it out his numbers will begin to rise. 

His numbers started to go down at the same time that he released some of the planks of his upcoming platform.  The Liberals are in third place nationally now in the latest EKOS poll.

His numbers have been going down for months, where have you been hiding?

True, he peaked in August of 2014.  But, contrary to what you claim about "now that he is starting to roll it out his numbers will begin to rise" has not been the case.  They continue to go down even after two of his major planks (the revenue neutral tax shift and means tested childcare) have been released. 

mark_alfred

Paladin1 wrote:

Does it look like the Conservatives will win again?

They won last time with around 40% of the vote.  The last poll had them at less then 30%.  They're going down.  They're not going to win.

terrytowel

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!!

mark_alfred

terrytowel wrote:

Justin Trudeau - IT'S OVER!!

and...

Stephen Harper - IT'S OVER!!

Good riddance to them both.

thorin_bane

But but but, Trudeau was meant to be PM isn't the same narrative we have heard since Paul Martin was crowned in 2003..entitled to their entitlements

nicky

Hard to underestimate Justin when you look at this video. An embarassing repetition of rote talking points. Not even Pondering can think this guy is remotely qualified to be PM. 

https://youtu.be/wmLwjjcvIeQ

Brachina

 Unfoetunately.Harper with a smile is the wrong product, because what people want right now is not Harper, not some variation of Harper.

mark_alfred

Brachina wrote:

 Unfoetunately.Harper with a smile is the wrong product, because what people want right now is not Harper, not some variation of Harper.

Agreed.  People want change.

mark_alfred

nicky wrote:

Hard to underestimate Justin when you look at this video. An embarassing repetition of rote talking points. Not even Pondering can think this guy is remotely qualified to be PM. 

https://youtu.be/wmLwjjcvIeQ

While I don't agree with him that established rights can be traded off to achieve "balance" (IE, traded off to allegedly achieve security), I feel Trudeau did well in facing the people there.  It shows that he's a more open minded right winger than is Harper, which I feel is Trudeau's goal.  He's trying to project that he's good for the economy, prosperity, jobs, security, and he's also open with the people, and thus better than Harper.  In essence, Harper with a smile.

Regarding Bill C-51, giving the police the right to seek warrants from judges to specifically breach the Charter is just backward (and dictating in law that judges should honour such requests is also backward).  And this was still in the Liberal approved amended version of the Bill.

nicky

Leaving Justin's dubious talents aside for the moment, what we should not underestimate is the power of the MSM to come to his rescue and that of his party.

By most objective standards yesterday's EKOs is a bombshell. NDP in first place, Mulcair's approval going through the roof, the Trudeau honeymoon over, the emergence of a two way race with the Liberals marginalized. It is easy to come up with an aprropriate headline to recognize this development.

But for most of the MSM i never happened. I have googled "ekos" "ndp" and "poll" for the last 24 hours and outside of some political blogs there seems to be only a single story in the Toronto Sun. Nothing in the globe, the CBC, the Post or the Star. Nothing on P&P or Powerplay.

Someone doesn't want word of the Liberal crash to get out.

Brachina

 Thanks to social media it will anyways, its not containable forever. And Huffington Post, Ipolitics, Rueters, Yahoo, ect... have covered it, the MSM can't keep a lid on it forever.

 As for underestimating him, that's a concern for Mulcair, not us, none of this is riding on us at Rabble.

 

 

 

Brachina

 Oh and on the issue of peaking, that's only an issue when you have a weak foundation, people peak because they get exposed as all huff and no puff, which Trudeau was glitzing it up Mulcair was building a solid foundation on top of the foubdation Jack built, I think you guys will find the NDP has a solid ground game this time, especially in Quebec.

mark_alfred

nicky wrote:

Leaving Justin's dubious talents aside for the moment, what we should not underestimate is the power of the MSM to come to his rescue and that of his party.

By most objective standards yesterday's EKOs is a bombshell. NDP in first place, Mulcair's approval going through the roof, the Trudeau honeymoon over, the emergence of a two way race with the Liberals marginalized. It is easy to come up with an aprropriate headline to recognize this development.

But for most of the MSM i never happened. I have googled "ekos" "ndp" and "poll" for the last 24 hours and outside of some political blogs there seems to be only a single story in the Toronto Sun. Nothing in the globe, the CBC, the Post or the Star. Nothing on P&P or Powerplay.

Someone doesn't want word of the Liberal crash to get out.

Yeah, it was a Reuters story that only the Sun and HP seemed to take.  No mention elsewhere.  Odd, because the Liberal drop is significant, I feel.  The last story on polls on the CBC website was June 3 by Grenier about how it was a three way tie.

Misfit Misfit's picture

My concern is that the NDP are in first right now. During the election, you want a slugfest between the Liberals and the Conservatives with the Conservatives exposing Trudeau as the inept goofball that he is. With the NDP in first place in the polls, the Libs and the Conservatives will be in full force attacking the NDP and Mulcair as the real threat, and Trudeau's unscripted remarks and overall lack of maturity will not get properly exposed. The Liberals could then be seen as the better alternative to the Conservatives, and we will have four more years of the same and a complete embarrassment as our next Prime Minister. These polls make me nervous.

NorthReport

If you take the election results of the the last 5 elections which parties overall increased their actual support from the day the writ was dropped until the election results, and which parties lost support.

In other words which political party during the actual election campaigns best?  

bekayne

mark_alfred wrote:

nicky wrote:

Leaving Justin's dubious talents aside for the moment, what we should not underestimate is the power of the MSM to come to his rescue and that of his party.

By most objective standards yesterday's EKOs is a bombshell. NDP in first place, Mulcair's approval going through the roof, the Trudeau honeymoon over, the emergence of a two way race with the Liberals marginalized. It is easy to come up with an aprropriate headline to recognize this development.

But for most of the MSM i never happened. I have googled "ekos" "ndp" and "poll" for the last 24 hours and outside of some political blogs there seems to be only a single story in the Toronto Sun. Nothing in the globe, the CBC, the Post or the Star. Nothing on P&P or Powerplay.

Someone doesn't want word of the Liberal crash to get out.

Yeah, it was a Reuters story that only the Sun and HP seemed to take.  No mention elsewhere.  Odd, because the Liberal drop is significant, I feel.  The last story on polls on the CBC website was June 3 by Grenier about how it was a three way tie.

Is 2.9% front page news?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Misfit wrote:
My concern is that the NDP are in first right now. During the election, you want a slugfest between the Liberals and the Conservatives with the Conservatives exposing Trudeau as the inept goofball that he is. With the NDP in first place in the polls, the Libs and the Conservatives will be in full force attacking the NDP and Mulcair as the real threat, and Trudeau's unscripted remarks and overall lack of maturity will not get properly exposed. The Liberals could then be seen as the better alternative to the Conservatives, and we will have four more years of the same and a complete embarrassment as our next Prime Minister. These polls make me nervous.

In my opinion, your fears are misplaced. If people are actually comparing Mulcair/NDP to Trudeau/Libs during the campaign to find their ABC vote, Mulcair/NDP will win. The only hope Trudeau ever had of winning was to be seen as the only realistic alternative to Harper, which he was, a year ago. Now that Trudeau has lost that, he will never get it back, and he doesn't have the ability to win in an even contest with the much more talented Mulcair.

DaveW

Brachina wrote:

 Oh and on the issue of peaking, that's only an issue when you have a weak foundation, people peak because they get exposed as all huff and no puff [...] you guys will find the NDP has a solid ground game this time, especially in Quebec.

good points ...

NorthReport

Well cummulative it is about a 15% drop for the Liberals.

The international press don't have skin in the game like our useless right-wing sycophant Canadian press.

bekayne wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

nicky wrote:

Leaving Justin's dubious talents aside for the moment, what we should not underestimate is the power of the MSM to come to his rescue and that of his party.

By most objective standards yesterday's EKOs is a bombshell. NDP in first place, Mulcair's approval going through the roof, the Trudeau honeymoon over, the emergence of a two way race with the Liberals marginalized. It is easy to come up with an aprropriate headline to recognize this development.

But for most of the MSM i never happened. I have googled "ekos" "ndp" and "poll" for the last 24 hours and outside of some political blogs there seems to be only a single story in the Toronto Sun. Nothing in the globe, the CBC, the Post or the Star. Nothing on P&P or Powerplay.

Someone doesn't want word of the Liberal crash to get out.

Yeah, it was a Reuters story that only the Sun and HP seemed to take.  No mention elsewhere.  Odd, because the Liberal drop is significant, I feel.  The last story on polls on the CBC website was June 3 by Grenier about how it was a three way tie.

Is 2.9% front page news?

mark_alfred

bekayne wrote:

Is 2.9% front page news?

The Liberals are polling at 2.9% now?  Well, it was only a matter of time.

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

Justin Trudeau, MP ‏@JustinTrudeau 6 mins6 minutes ago

Congrats to @Kathleen_Wynne on her overwhelming leadership vote of confidence from @OntLiberal members, and an overall successful #OLPAGM!

Talk about a wooden ear and being tone deaf at the same time! Trudeau thinks Wynne is going to help him out, now that Wynne has been caught to the right of the Ontario PCs on Hydro? The lights are on and no one is home at the LPC!

bekayne

mark_alfred wrote:

bekayne wrote:

Is 2.9% front page news?

The Liberals are polling at 2.9% now?  Well, it was only a matter of time.

That would be front page news. But a 2.9% drop in a week? No.

Misfit Misfit's picture

@Michael Moriarty,

I hope you are right. If the Conservatives see the Liberals as the dominant threat, they would use the campaign to expose Trudeau's inexperience. If the NDP are the number one threat. Mulcair will be fighting satellite office spending allegations during the election. i am well aware that Mulcair is head and shoulders more talented than Trudeau will ever hope to be. I simply do not like the direction and focus of election strategy by the different parties with the NDP in the lead or as a very strong contender right from the start. Bay Street wants Conservatives or Liberals in power. The MSM will spin the election coverage in the Liberal's favour and paint the NDP as a serious threat to the economy and to the direction of the country right from the start. I fear that this will make it a very difficult and defensive campaign for the NDP if they are seen as a real threat so early in the campaign. Politics can be ruthless and dirty, but I hope you are right.

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