Don't underestimate Justin Trudeau

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Rokossovsky

Cons always ensure they leave the maximum impediments to undoing what they have done.

Sean in Ottawa

a legitimate worry

Rokossovsky

And Mulcair is on top of it. Trudeau has no mandate to act against senate, whereas Mulcair is making one.

This is shrewed, regardless of the technical details and apparent obstacles.

takeitslowly

7316 likes Justin Trudeau's latest post on facebook and it keeps rising. I don't know if Mulcair ever has so many facebook likes on any of his posts. https://www.facebook.com/JustinPJTrudeau?fref=ts He has 246K likes on his main facebook page and the number of likes is still rising.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I wouldn't read anything into that. If he reaches a couple of million,then maybe we should pay attention.

Misfit Misfit's picture

I don't post likes on Facebook and many people don't. The people posting likes could be teenie boppers who think Justin is cute and has really nice hair. What matters is polls and 'accurate' voter intentions, and most importantly, votes on Election Day.

Pondering

Misfit wrote:
I don't post likes on Facebook and many people don't. The people posting likes could be teenie boppers who think Justin is cute and has really nice hair. What matters is polls and 'accurate' voter intentions, and most importantly, votes on Election Day.

I don't think many teenie boppers are into politics.

Polls are answered casually and sometimes used to "send a message" rather than indicate solid support for a particular party especially this far out when the platforms haven't been released and the campaign hasn't started in earnest, and won't until after Labour Day although the Maclean's debate may have an impact.

Misfit Misfit's picture

I think the Maclean's debate will have a big impact. I also think Trudeau did better on day one than the media gave him credit for. He looked sharp and was on the ball to kick things off. I think he is going to do well on Thursday.

socialdemocrati...

Facebook likes are hard to get a read on. A lot of the time "like" just means "follow", which can mean more hate. There are countless trolls on Trudeau's page, mostly right wing, but some leftwing too. It's actually kind of unfair. Celebrity is a double edged sword, especially on social media. 

Pondering

Misfit wrote:
I think the Maclean's debate will have a big impact. I also think Trudeau did better on day one than the media gave him credit for. He looked sharp and was on the ball to kick things off. I think he is going to do well on Thursday.

I think so too. I saw him in an interview a few months back and his speaking style has improved tremendously. He's been portrayed as a virtual airhead which he is not so right off the bat he will be able to disprove the caricature of him. The debate is still high-stakes and Paul Wells must be working overtime planning his questions and strategizing on how to counter the leaders attempts at evasion. This is a huge opportunity for Wells. He has 2 hours and full control. If it is boring it is his fault. He will be evaluated for partisanship too. If he is successful on cornering any of the leaders on any topic it will be a feather in his cap.

By the way, they have taken a page out of the reality show format, there will be a one hour post mortem after show.

takeitslowly

I still think Tom Mulcair will win but I think its important to be informed that Justin Trudeau is still personally popular and we should never underestimate his ability to attract voters. It concerns me when so many people the Liberals have no chance, we should be on guard for them.

jjuares

The campaign should work to Trudeaus advantage. Campaigns are mostly just photo ops and Trudeau can draw large crowds. His speaking style continues to be very stilted and scripted and he really hasn't made much progress. Here again that should not be much of a problem if he sticks to his notes. The debates are not really that spontaneous and leaders have canned responses and answers ready. When your opponent says this, you say this in response and when you get the chance you say this with rising inflection. And the campaign gets him out of parliament where he is so dreadful. This is Trudeaus chance and he now is able to playin a park better suited to his skills.

Misfit Misfit's picture

JJ, I think you summed it up very nicely. Justin has had a year to prepare for this debate. I believe that he is ready for the debate and for the election, but he does not have the skill set to sit in the House of Commons and speak unscripted. This is the sad reality that worries me very deeply.

Pondering

Misfit wrote:
JJ, I think you summed it up very nicely. Justin has had a year to prepare for this debate. I believe that he is ready for the debate and for the election, but he does not have the skill set to sit in the House of Commons and speak unscripted. This is the sad reality that worries me very deeply.

Why is that? The House of Commons is a joke and has practically no impact on the governing of Canada. Members have so little respect for it that they answer questions by talking about kid's homework or some such nonsense. No debates take place there.

The leaders have all had years to prepare for debates. As Trudeau was the last elected leader he had the least amount of prep time.

Politics is really not that complicated. The attitude that it is complicated discourages voting. The most important attribute for a leader is that they reflect the values and aspirations of the people.

jjuares

Pondering wrote:

Misfit wrote:
JJ, I think you summed it up very nicely. Justin has had a year to prepare for this debate. I believe that he is ready for the debate and for the election, but he does not have the skill set to sit in the House of Commons and speak unscripted. This is the sad reality that worries me very deeply.

Why is that? The House of Commons is a joke and has practically no impact on the governing of Canada. Members have so little respect for it that they answer questions by talking about kid's homework or some such nonsense. No debates take place there.

The leaders have all had years to prepare for debates. As Trudeau was the last elected leader he had the least amount of prep time.

Politics is really not that complicated. The attitude that it is complicated discourages voting. The most important attribute for a leader is that they reflect the values and aspirations of the people.


He has been in parliament for seven years and preparing for these debates for months. He is ready or should be. You do realize your comment is validating the Con attack ads. Never a good idea.

thorin_bane

Pondering wrote:

Misfit wrote:
JJ, I think you summed it up very nicely. Justin has had a year to prepare for this debate. I believe that he is ready for the debate and for the election, but he does not have the skill set to sit in the House of Commons and speak unscripted. This is the sad reality that worries me very deeply.

Why is that? The House of Commons is a joke and has practically no impact on the governing of Canada. Members have so little respect for it that they answer questions by talking about kid's homework or some such nonsense. No debates take place there.

The leaders have all had years to prepare for debates. As Trudeau was the last elected leader he had the least amount of prep time.

Politics is really not that complicated. The attitude that it is complicated discourages voting. The most important attribute for a leader is that they reflect the values and aspirations of the people.


I think the comments made in the house are vital to democracy. The senate scandal would have just been passed over if Tom had been like Justin, you know out collecting money. Instead we have seen some hard questions put to the cons on this wasteful useless house of pigs.
Trudeau still hasn't impressed. The fact he is reading straight off of pages just shows that as long as he has a script he can act his way through the easy bits. He still has a speach issue (ahhs and umms) and if it disappears all of a sudden it means it was fake like Bush's Texan accent. Which would show what a phoney he is.

Pondering

thorin_bane wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Misfit wrote:
JJ, I think you summed it up very nicely. Justin has had a year to prepare for this debate. I believe that he is ready for the debate and for the election, but he does not have the skill set to sit in the House of Commons and speak unscripted. This is the sad reality that worries me very deeply.

Why is that? The House of Commons is a joke and has practically no impact on the governing of Canada. Members have so little respect for it that they answer questions by talking about kid's homework or some such nonsense. No debates take place there.

The leaders have all had years to prepare for debates. As Trudeau was the last elected leader he had the least amount of prep time.

Politics is really not that complicated. The attitude that it is complicated discourages voting. The most important attribute for a leader is that they reflect the values and aspirations of the people.


I think the comments made in the house are vital to democracy. The senate scandal would have just been passed over if Tom had been like Justin, you know out collecting money. Instead we have seen some hard questions put to the cons on this wasteful useless house of pigs.
Trudeau still hasn't impressed. The fact he is reading straight off of pages just shows that as long as he has a script he can act his way through the easy bits. He still has a speach issue (ahhs and umms) and if it disappears all of a sudden it means it was fake like Bush's Texan accent. Which would show what a phoney he is.

Were the questions answered? I think not and few people have heard of Mulcair's questioning of Harper. I think the press and the court case has more to do with people knowing about the senate scandal.

jjuares

Pondering wrote:

thorin_bane wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Misfit wrote:
JJ, I think you summed it up very nicely. Justin has had a year to prepare for this debate. I believe that he is ready for the debate and for the election, but he does not have the skill set to sit in the House of Commons and speak unscripted. This is the sad reality that worries me very deeply.

Why is that? The House of Commons is a joke and has practically no impact on the governing of Canada. Members have so little respect for it that they answer questions by talking about kid's homework or some such nonsense. No debates take place there.

The leaders have all had years to prepare for debates. As Trudeau was the last elected leader he had the least amount of prep time.

Politics is really not that complicated. The attitude that it is complicated discourages voting. The most important attribute for a leader is that they reflect the values and aspirations of the people.


I think the comments made in the house are vital to democracy. The senate scandal would have just been passed over if Tom had been like Justin, you know out collecting money. Instead we have seen some hard questions put to the cons on this wasteful useless house of pigs.
Trudeau still hasn't impressed. The fact he is reading straight off of pages just shows that as long as he has a script he can act his way through the easy bits. He still has a speach issue (ahhs and umms) and if it disappears all of a sudden it means it was fake like Bush's Texan accent. Which would show what a phoney he is.

Were the questions answered? I think not and few people have heard of Mulcair's questioning of Harper. I think the press and the court case has more to do with people knowing about the senate scandal.


The nightly news carried snippets of Mulcair grilling Harper. Many people either directly through these snippets or of news coverage of Mulcair going after Harper became more aware of the full import of this scandal. I have read the comment section of many newspapers and all fair minded Liberals acknowledge that. In fact I have yet to see a Liberal not accept that reality. Well until now obviously.

Pondering

jjuares wrote:
Pondering wrote:

Misfit wrote:
JJ, I think you summed it up very nicely. Justin has had a year to prepare for this debate. I believe that he is ready for the debate and for the election, but he does not have the skill set to sit in the House of Commons and speak unscripted. This is the sad reality that worries me very deeply.

Why is that? The House of Commons is a joke and has practically no impact on the governing of Canada. Members have so little respect for it that they answer questions by talking about kid's homework or some such nonsense. No debates take place there.

The leaders have all had years to prepare for debates. As Trudeau was the last elected leader he had the least amount of prep time.

Politics is really not that complicated. The attitude that it is complicated discourages voting. The most important attribute for a leader is that they reflect the values and aspirations of the people.

He has been in parliament for seven years and preparing for these debates for months. He is ready or should be. You do realize your comment is validating the Con attack ads. Never a good idea.

He is ready for the debates. I think governing is about a lot more than shallow games in the HoC. If Trudeau becomes PM then he will answer questions in the House not play games. I am much more concerned about his position on trade deals now that Mulcair has come out against investor/state provisions.

The issue should come up in the debate Thursday night. One of my primary beefs with Mulcair and the NDP is the Sherbrooke declaration. In my view it weakens Canada. The investor protections in CETA and TPP arguably weaken Canada even more. I don't know if I can trust Mulcair on it, could be a Syriza style commitment that if he is told to take it or leave it he will still take it. Trudeau may also come out against those provisions. I'll just have to wait and see.

Slumberjack

Nobody cares about Sherbrooke if you must know.  Talking about Quebec sovereignty as an issue is a frank admission that there's nothing to talk about.  It's like applying a band aid to your pinky toe in order to treat a gaping head wound.  It misses the mark quite frankly.

If you can't trust the NDP with the details of CETA and TPP given that they're head over heels in favour of making secret trade deals, what makes you think there is any comfort to be had in Trudeau's silence.  Shouldn't this make you suspicious?  Isn't that how neo-liberalism does it's finest work, in silence and in secret?

Pondering

Slumberjack wrote:

Nobody cares about Sherbrooke if you must know.  Talking about Quebec sovereignty as an issue is a frank admission that there's nothing else to talk about.  It's like applying a band aid to your pinky toe in order to treat a gaping head wound. 

I care about the Sherbrooke declaration therefore it factors into how I vote. The Sherbrooke declaration also promotes asymetrical federalism with Quebec having special opt out rights. If the Sherbrooke declaration is so insignificant why does Mulcair keep reiterating the NDP's continuing commitment to it?

Slumberjack wrote:
If you can't trust the NDP with the details of CETA and TPP given that they're head over heels in favour of making secret trade deals, what makes you think there is any comfort to be had in Trudeau's silence.  Shouldn't this make you suspicious?  Isn't that how neo-liberalism does it's finest work, in silence and in secret?

There is no comfort to be had in Trudeau's silence. If I believed the NDP it would make a difference. So far I believe the NDP will sign those deals rather than walk away from the table. Syriza claimed they could have their cake and eat it too, reject austerity but remain in the eurozone; that he could negotiate a better deal. I haven't heard Mulcair say he will walk away from the deals if they include investor rights and a secret court with the power to fine countries. Mulcair is claiming we can have our cake and eat it too. Maybe we can but it is far from certain. I want to know if he is willing to walk away from the table if that is what it takes.

Pondering

jjuares wrote:
Pondering wrote:

thorin_bane wrote:

I think the comments made in the house are vital to democracy. The senate scandal would have just been passed over if Tom had been like Justin, you know out collecting money. Instead we have seen some hard questions put to the cons on this wasteful useless house of pigs.

Were the questions answered? I think not and few people have heard of Mulcair's questioning of Harper. I think the press and the court case has more to do with people knowing about the senate scandal.

The nightly news carried snippets of Mulcair grilling Harper. Many people either directly through these snippets or of news coverage of Mulcair going after Harper became more aware of the full import of this scandal. I have read the comment section of many newspapers and all fair minded Liberals acknowledge that. In fact I have yet to see a Liberal not accept that reality. Well until now obviously.

That doesn't mean if it were not for Mulcair the entire senate scandal would have been passed over. People would have still noticed the wall to wall coverage of the senate drama and the Duffy trial. I'm sure some people also noticed Mulcair's grilling of Harper but that is because the senate scandal was big. Mulcair didn't drive the story. Give him credit for the grilling, sure, but the story would not have been overlooked without him.

mark_alfred

Pondering wrote:

That doesn't mean if it were not for Mulcair the entire senate scandal would have been passed over. People would have still noticed the wall to wall coverage of the senate drama and the Duffy trial. I'm sure some people also noticed Mulcair's grilling of Harper but that is because the senate scandal was big. Mulcair didn't drive the story. Give him credit for the grilling, sure, but the story would not have been overlooked without him.

I'm not sure.  If there had been no public pressure, then would the government have referred the various Senate issues to the RCMP?  I doubt it.  And Mulcair played a big part in that public pressure. 

Regardless, one thing for sure is that the possible involvement of the PMO (specifically Nigel Wright) would not have been a focus if not for Mulcair.  This is extremely important.  Nigel Wright's testimony could be the undoing of Harper.

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Pondering wrote:

That doesn't mean if it were not for Mulcair the entire senate scandal would have been passed over. People would have still noticed the wall to wall coverage of the senate drama and the Duffy trial. I'm sure some people also noticed Mulcair's grilling of Harper but that is because the senate scandal was big. Mulcair didn't drive the story. Give him credit for the grilling, sure, but the story would not have been overlooked without him.

I'm not sure.  If there had been no public pressure, then would the government have referred the various Senate issues to the RCMP?  I doubt it.  And Mulcair played a big part in that public pressure. 

Regardless, one thing for sure is that the possible involvement of the PMO's office (specifically Nigel Wright) would not have been a focus if not for Mulcair.  This is extremely important.  Nigel Wright's testimony could be the undoing of Harper.

The reason Mulcair was giving him the third degree is because it was already a big issue in the news. Trying to take credit for this turning into a big deal is ridiculous.

mark_alfred

Bear in mind that Harper initially defended Wright.  Only later under the intense questioning did Harper turn on Wright, and ultimately on the Senate itself.  This questioning began in May of 2013, and continued.  It caused it to continue to be in the news, and raised many questions.  So the public became aware not only of Duffy's shenanigans, but also possibly the PMO itself.  Wright's time on the stand could be very important.  Also, when the government is involved in questionable activity, it is important for the opposition to make this public and pry into it.  Mulcair has been very effective in this role.  Opposition is an important role in government.

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Bear in mind that Harper initially defended Wright.  Only later under the intense questioning did Harper turn on Wright, and ultimately on the Senate itself.  This questioning began in May of 2013, and continued.  It caused it to continue to be in the news, and raised many questions.  So the public became aware not only of Duffy's shenanigans, but also possibly the PMO itself.  Wright's time on the stand could be very important.  Also, when the government is involved in questionable activity, it is important for the opposition to make this public and pry into it.  Mulcair has been very effective in this role.  Opposition is an important role in government.

Yes he has been very successful as leader of the opposition overall and he was especially skilled at cross-examining Harper in the House. It illustrated that he will likely be a formidable debater. I am avidly looking foward to the debate tomorrow night. It is Trudeau's sink or swim moment even though few Canadians will be watching live. Trudeau doesn't have to "win" but he has to prove he is in the running.

mark_alfred

Yes, I'm looking forward to the debate tomorrow.

Pondering

mark_alfred wrote:

Yes, I'm looking forward to the debate tomorrow.

At the very least we will finally have some fresh fodder to dissect.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

How do you dissect fodder?

Pondering

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quizzical

tomorrow thought it was today?

Misfit Misfit's picture

If Mark-Alfred posted that at 12:57am on August 6, he would still be operating on the night of August 5 which would have put the debate at tomorrow even though it was technically today. And since the time is posted in Ontario time, it would have been tomorrow in all parts of Canada west of Thunder Bay at that exact time. Just sayin'.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Harper's NetFlix tweet races himself to the top of the cynical idiot hill. He really thinks Canadians are stupid. If he's right, Canadians will be proven to be stupid. I'd like to think that they are not.

Desperation has a scent and Harper is reeking of it. I'm sure most rational people will see right through these lame promises.

 

montrealer58 montrealer58's picture

At least if we watch Netflix we will never see any Canadian politicians, and we will never see tax-payer subsidized ads for the Conservative Party of Canada.

takeitslowly

Toronto Star says "a new poll" shows Justin Trudeau is winning hearts and minds. The article blows up on Facebook, with over 2400 likes in just 6 hours. https://www.facebook.com/torontostar/posts/10153587739046151?comment_id=... The hundreds of comments posted were mostly very pro Justin.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Trudeau will always resonate with older voters who have always voted Liberal. Many of these voters look at Justin in the same vein as his father.

So to deny that there is a pro-Justin segment of electorate is very naive.

takeitslowly

.

takeitslowly

And the younger women population.

mark_alfred

takeitslowly wrote:
Toronto Star says "a new poll" shows Justin Trudeau is winning hearts and minds. The article blows up on Facebook, with over 2400 likes in just 6 hours. https://www.facebook.com/torontostar/posts/10153587739046151?comment_id=... The hundreds of comments posted were mostly very pro Justin.

Yeah, but the big story of the "new poll" is how amazing the NDP are doing in Quebec, and how they are beginning to overtake the Liberals in Atlantic Canada.  Granted, the Liberals are doing a bit better in the important battleground of Ontario, which naturally this Toronto Star Facebook posting focussed on.  But hey, it's The Star, after all.  And it's still very close in Ontario.  Hopefully the NDP will pick up there too.

takeitslowly

I have seen a dozen of liberal signs in my Scarborough centre ridings and also a dozens from the Conservative, but I have not seen one single NDP sign.  I contacted the ridign assocation and they said they are beginning to put up sings, no signs of life yet from the NDP though.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Opposite situation here. Tons of NDP posters and quite a few Liberal ones. No signs from the Conservatives yet.

takeitslowly

5.4 percent increase facebook like for Justin Trudeau

313 k total likes

2.4 percernt increase facebook likes for Tom Mulcair

93 k likes

 

Theres no doubt that the liberals have hte momentum right now, sadly.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Trudeau has spoken in vague simple terms often. We might say that he is a bit simple on policy but this is dangerous. His lack of sophistication and knowledge may be an advantage with many voters who are even less sophisticated than he is.

At times the NDP always has had difficult with bright leaders trying to overexplain policy only losing to a simple message accepted by less sophisticated people.

The Liberals, beofre Trudeau picked two very smart people who (setting policy itself aside) made the usual NDP mistake of over explaining and complicating their messages. They drove their party down. Both of those people would have been better choices for PM than Trudeau but Trudeau might actually do better than they at the ballot box.

This is why communications people, if they are good, train their spokespeople to deliver well organized and simple messages and tell them when to explain and when to lay out a clear vision.

I am very worried about what a Trudeau government could do but I can see the merits in some of the more simple talking points the Liberals have opted for.

It is clear to me that the NDP has a plan that can be made popular. They have to hone the message into clear statements that do not get bogged down in detail, controversy and confusion. Trudeau's lack of sophistication has been allowed to become an asset.

Very smart people can be trained by communicators to be able to enage even better than unsophisticted people but if they are not so trained they will come out even less comprehensible than someone like Trudeau.

And this is not just to the unsophisticated public either. Only experts and pros spend so much time on the details. Party leaders must in order to handle detail and quesitons but they have to come back and speak about those things successfuly to people who have not spent the time on a given issue. Sadly, if they do not, unsophisticated people may come across as smarter, clearer and stronger than a person who actually knows the file well. As well people who see the detail can get drawn in by it rather than staying on the topline message.

takeitslowly

i dont even think the liberal supporters expect the liberals to keep their promises.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:

5.4 percent increase facebook like for Justin Trudeau

313 k total likes

2.4 percernt increase facebook likes for Tom Mulcair

93 k likes

 

Theres no doubt that the liberals have hte momentum right now, sadly.

A photo of Kim Kardashian's egg salad sandwich:  1.9 million likes.

Will the sandwich be the dark horse of Election 2015?

quizzical

takeitslowly wrote:
5.4 percent increase facebook like for Justin Trudeau

313 k total likes

2.4 percernt increase facebook likes for Tom Mulcair

93 k likes

 

Theres no doubt that the liberals have hte momentum right now, sadly.

don't put too much store in facebook likes i don't think it's a true reflection of anything  and using it as a measure of momtentum lmaoooooooooooooooo.

i've found people like my mom who are NDP wouldn't be caught dead liking any politician's facebook page, not even Mulcair's. i wouldn't even and i've been on facebook since it started.

i'll share but i won't like.

and no i wouldn't underestimate Justin Trudeau's ability to make Canada look even more foolish on the world stage than Harper does right now.

now after Suzuki made it clear how narcissistic and priviledged Trudeau is i can't vote Liberal in my riding to block Zimmerman like i was thinking i would have to.

mark_alfred

takeitslowly wrote:

i dont even think the liberal supporters expect the liberals to keep their promises.

I suspect you're right.  Sad really.

Pondering

quizzical wrote:
and no i wouldn't underestimate Justin Trudeau's ability to make Canada look even more foolish on the world stage than Harper does right now.

He'll do just fine....

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/justin-trudeau/canada-united-nations_b_8204...

Now you know the perspective he will argue tomorrow during the debate.

Rev Pesky

takeitslowly wrote:

And the younger women population.

Not one person on a 'progressive' board pointed out the sexism in this post? You're slipping, folks.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

To be fair, Rev, it took even you five weeks.

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