Draft Olivia Chow for Toronto Mayor
With the announcement that David Miller will step down as Toronto Mayor, we need a strong candidate of the left to challenge John Tory and/or George Smitherman in 2010.
Olivia would be great to build on the progress and achievements of Mayor Miller.
Olivia boasts a legacy of achievement after decades of public service in Toronto. She worked to create a more liveable and dynamic city through her leadership and dedication to improve economic opportunity, eradicate child poverty, enhance the environment and the waterfront, and strengthen social services, immigrant services, child care, affordable housing and affordable public transit. She also was an advocate for the kind of arts, culture and rich diversity that sets Toronto apart.
She knows the City, knows City Hall, and how to get results from the federal and provincial governments.
This should be moved to the Central Canada room since its all to do with Toronto municipal politics.
What someone wants her career destroyed too?
Good chance she wont win this riding next time out. If not then it might be a good move for her. She is a bit wasted up there in the talking shop.
Will a moderator please move this to the Central Canada room - this is not a national political story
Chow is a national political figure, indeed an Member of the national parliment. What is your issue Stocky?
david Miller is also a national political figure - but we discuss provincial and municipal politics in regional threads.
In any case, this is just a nuisance thread started by some Liberal who knows that the only way a Liberal can hope to win Trinity-Spadina would be if Olivia Chow didn't run there. But there is absolutely ZERO chance of that happening - so they can dream on.
He's not a member of the federal legistlature. After the upcoming NDP election debacle, a lot of folks are going to need jobs, and Chow might be one of them. Lets hope that Layton isn't also one of them so that Chow isn't sidelined in the mayoralty stakes.
Your personal perceptions of the poltical identification of the author of the OP are irrelevant, and mere speculation. I in turn speculate that your speculations only serve your partisan agenda, so i deem them to be irrelevant trolling.
The "upcoming NDP election debacle", LMAO.
Fond imaginings, if things keep on the way they are, and currently it seems they will, it will be a Liberal election debacle.
Oh most certainly, but the NDP will not be the beneficiary of that formula.
Unless people in Toronto want to have a Con MP, they had better rally around the NDP MP's, they currently have.
Olivia Chow running for Mayor of Toronto has everyone in Burnaby talking. LMAO
Anything that happens in the centre of the universe must be a national story, just ask the MSM.
remind, I highly, HIGHLY doubt a Conservative would ever win in Trinity-Spadina.
The polling thread indicates the Cons gaining ground in TO ridings, and the Liberals slipping badly.
Unless people in Toronto want to have a Con MP, they had better rally around the NDP MP's, they currently have.
If it looks like a Conservative majority in the event of a Liberal meltdown, wouldn't Toronto voters want MPs on the government side?
The Ridings demographics courtesy of Wikipedia are below. The Con finished 16 000 votes behind Olivia Chow in the last election.
Average family income: $81,415[1] (2001)
Median family income: $50,047 [2]
Unemployment: 6.7%
Language, mother tongue: English 52%, French 2%, Other 46%
Religion: Catholic 32%, Protestant 15%, Buddhist 5%, Jewish 4%, Muslim 3%, No religious affiliation 33%, Other 7% [3]
Visible Minority: Chinese 18%, Black 4% South Asian 3%, Filipino 2%, Southeast Asian 2%, Korean 2%, Others 6%
IPersonally, I would never vote so that I would have an MP, on the government side, such endeavours are extremely foolish IMV, but I am sure some people think that way.
Olivia Chow has a very, very low chance of winning. Talk shows are trying to speculate that Jack Layton would run - he'd have a better chance. Other guesses: Adam Gaimbrone (puke), Adam Vaughan (he wants it he does, my precious).
Denxil Minnan Wong is salivating about running for the 'right' reasons.
Likelihood is a total stranger to the speculation will run. Julian heller?
I think that to the extent that some people would vote for a candidate of the party that they think is going to win as a way of having an MP "from the governing side" - its a declining phenomenon and if it exists at all in Canada today its mostly limited to very rural ridings where people think that if they don't have an MP on the government side, the roads won't get paved etc...I think that the number of people in sophisticated inner city ridings who seriously vote based on this logic is ZERO.
It has to be someone from the outside. People don't want more of the same. Present members of the city council need not apply.
My guess its someone that none of us are talking about.
Lisa Raitt
remind, I highly, HIGHLY doubt a Conservative would ever win in Trinity-Spadina.
We are not talking about cons winning in TP. The Greens would have as a good a chance, which is close to none at all. That said, I think Trinity Spadina is very much open to strategic voting, and I know even fairly politically aware people who fail to grasp the fact that in a riding like TP one does not have to vote strategically for a Liberal in order to prevent a Tory candidate from winning, but could vote NDP. But they don't seem to get it. Among even less astute voters I imagine the falacy is even more strongly believed.
Basic sentiment drives a lot of people voting tendencies, and they would vote Liberal on the basis of the fact that they think the Liberals have the best chance of forming a government instead of the Tories. Don't expect logic here, or people to be highly motivated by the prospect of a "coalition".
A tight race for Chow in this upwardly mobile community.
Olivia Chow running for Mayor of Toronto has everyone in Burnaby talking. LMAO
Anything that happens in the centre of the universe must be a national story, just ask the MSM.
Where is Burnaby?
I have a great idea, why doesn't Gerard Kennedy run for mayor of Toronto and that way Peggy Nash can take back Parkdale-High Park! Or maybe Maria Minna is getting bored with being a backbencher forever and should run for mayor.
I guess it all depends on whether you want to discuss who would actually be a strong candidate for mayor and who would have any interest at all in running - as compared to whimsical musing about who should run so that someone else can get the job that they currently have.
I can think of someone who could put the "May" in "Mayor"! Someone who's feeling a little down, and could use a "win" right about now!
I have a great idea, why doesn't Gerard Kennedy run for mayor of Toronto and that way Peggy Nash can take back Parkdale-High Park! Or maybe Maria Minna is getting bored with being a backbencher forever and should run for mayor.
I guess it all depends on whether you want to discuss who would actually be a strong candidate for mayor and who would have any interest at all in running - as compared to whimsical musing about who should run so that someone else can get the job that they currently have.
You think the federal election is coming after the Toronto mayoralty race?
While Olivia Chow may do well in her own federal riding and could perhaps do well with the downtown crowd, Toronto's downtown is only a small part of the city. There are the inner suburbs of Etobicoke, North York, Scarborough and even parts of the old city of Toronto, York and East York where the voters may not be interested in Ms. Chow.
I do think Adam Vaughan could be a great candidate even though he comes from the downtown and is an NDPer. There are some differences between Ms. Chow and Mr. Vaughan: Ms. Chow is an NDPer who won't be able to shake her NDP tag; Mr. Vaughan could shake his NDP identification but still identify himself loosely as a social-democrat. Adam Vaughan is an urban planner in mind. He could be able to deal with the suburban problems as well as those found in downtown Toronto.
I don't think Adam Vaughan will run in 2010. He could run for mayor in 2014 where he will be able to battle a liberal or conservative mayoral incumbent. Right now, it would be too difficult for him to run supporting Miller's record. Like it or not, the media will see the last seven years as being the Miller years. I think Mr. Vaughan could have a better chance in becoming mayor in 2014 by building up his profile as a councillor between now and 2014. If he runs now against John Tory and George Smitherman and loses, Adam Vaughan will have a difficult time trying to run again in 2014. He also won't have a good fallback position career wise. If Mr. Vaughan waits until 2014, even if he loses, he can run for provincial or federal office as an NDP or Liberal candidate.
I'm not sure what you're talking about. Adam Vaughan has ZERO NDP affiliation. He was elected to council with support from Liberals (plus a few NDP sore losers and malcontents) and he bragged about how he won by "beating the NDP machine" etc...Its true that he's been a reliable vote for Miller on council - but so have lots of people.
While Olivia Chow may do well in her own federal riding and could perhaps do well with the downtown crowd, Toronto's downtown is only a small part of the city. There are the inner suburbs of Etobicoke, North York, Scarborough and even parts of the old city of Toronto, York and East York where the voters may not be interested in Ms. Chow.
I do think Adam Vaughan could be a great candidate even though he comes from the downtown and is an NDPer. There are some differences between Ms. Chow and Mr. Vaughan: Ms. Chow is an NDPer who won't be able to shake her NDP tag; Mr. Vaughan could shake his NDP identification but still identify himself loosely as a social-democrat. Adam Vaughan is an urban planner in mind. He could be able to deal with the suburban problems as well as those found in downtown Toronto.
I don't think Adam Vaughan will run in 2010. He could run for mayor in 2014 where he will be able to battle a liberal or conservative mayoral incumbent. Right now, it would be too difficult for him to run supporting Miller's record. Like it or not, the media will see the last seven years as being the Miller years. I think Mr. Vaughan could have a better chance in becoming mayor in 2014 by building up his profile as a councillor between now and 2014. If he runs now against John Tory and George Smitherman and loses, Adam Vaughan will have a difficult time trying to run again in 2014. He also won't have a good fallback position career wise. If Mr. Vaughan waits until 2014, even if he loses, he can run for provincial or federal office as an NDP or Liberal candidate.
Uh huh. But Vaugn has been a no show basically, and even a bit of a wash with some people here. I have seen him at a few functions but what has he done? Olivia, as I know did many things and was and effective councilor. You want to talk optics, I want to see action. Vaughn really flubbed the whole Future's Cafe deal, and in fact the Annex is night life is now dominated by bars and even more dangerous than it was before when the patio had its late night license. I saw no effective advocacy on this issue from Vaugn, and bread and butter issues that make city politics important, not "leftish" "Social Democratic" optics.
What happened to Jane Jacob's "eyes on the street --" that is what makes communities safe. What I do know is since that patio was closed the Annex had its first street homicide right in the alley behind there, and a woman was raped in the adjacent alley as well. I also know that Vaugn did no effective advocacy there for us.
From what I can tell opposition to the patio being open late is one crank on Brunswick avenue and a developer cat who happens to own a house there and from what I hear sits on a committee with Vaugn.
So that is the only issue that I am familliar with Vaugn on, and he definitely did nothing effective for Annex community other than undermine street safety. So what kind of urban planner type does that make him? A developer type, or a community type? Fact is that with the Cafe patio closed after 11, the Annex is bereft of safe places where ordinary people who are not suburban bozo's and college yahoos can hang out.
I have a great idea, why doesn't Gerard Kennedy run for mayor of Toronto ...
That's a wonderful idea. He must be terribly frustrated with towing the old party line by now.
I think that EMay should run for Mayor after her current parachute fails to open and she comes tumbling back down to earth.. She must be able to claim some connection to the centre of the universe and as Canada's largest city she could really show how the she could make a green difference.
Vaugn was just on CBC radio saying how the next Mayor has to be from outside, there's no talent on council for the job.
For what that's worth.
If the left was smart, they'd get behind closed doors to run one candidate, and start work early but announce late, enticing two or three right wingers to run against each other.
I have a great idea, why doesn't Gerard Kennedy run for mayor of Toronto...
I think the idea amoungst most of us here is to keep the Tories out. Ooops, sorry. He's not a Tory, just their coat holder.
I think that EMay should run for Mayor after her current parachute fails to open and she comes tumbling back down to earth.. She must be able to claim some connection to the centre of the universe and as Canada's largest city she could really show how the she could make a green difference.
So where does that put Olivia... Burnaby?
Vaugn was just on CBC radio saying how the next Mayor has to be from outside, there's no talent on council for the job.
For what that's worth.
Sounds like he is being coatholder for whatever is being plotted by the right. They have some one in mind... maybe Bryant.
Well, hell ya, Bryant. He's a swell guy.
Navagator told me so.
I like Tommy's plan, especially the "if they were smart" part. Joe Mihevc will be on CFRB in two minutes. I'm curious as to what he'll have to say.
How abouts Judy?
Interesting idea. I can think of a lot of pros and cons.
After what happened with David, I don't know how quickly anybody progressive will want to run for mayor. He's a good guy, but he became the reverse of Teflon (whatever that is - Velcro?): everything stuck to him.
The Conservative and Liberal machinery will be behind whoever they feel will help their agenda here in Centre of the Universe. Off the top of my head, here's who I've heard (rather informally) so far - party affiliation follows:
George Smitherman - Liberal
John Tory - Con
Karen Stintz - Con
Denzel Minnan-Wong (puke puke puke) - Con
Adam Giambrone - NDP, right?
So it's mostly a choice between the right, and the far-right.
Well, it's just a bad time to be an incumbent anything.
Helps to remember how many votes a mayor has on council. I'm not sure of Toronto's council make up, but perhaps more could be done by focussing on unseating a number of vulnerable right wing councillors?
London's had the same mayor now for a number of terms, but yet council has moved from the right to a reasonable facsimilie of the left in the meantime.
Incumbent councillors in Toronto just about have to be caught making child pornography in order to get unseated, so I don't think there's much hope for that.
I am thinking it would give her exposure for an MP run.
I think that progressives should sit out the mayoral race altogether and concentrate on council races. Running for mayor would cost about 1 million dollars and who has that kind of money. I think that people on the left should discreetly back John Tory for mayor. Of all the people in that rogues gallery running for mayor, he is the most likely to try to build bridges across the ideological spectrum and give progressive councillors some share of power. Because of the Conservative party is so weak in Toronto Tory would have be quite non-partisan. Smitherman as mayor would just have a lot of temper tantrums and launch endless witch hunts and vendettas against anyone who is not an intensely partisan card carrying Liberal.
Go John Tory!
Incumbent councillors in Toronto just about have to be caught making child pornography in order to get unseated, so I don't think there's much hope for that.
Well, catch'em then
In the Globe & Mail and Macleans.ca, Chow refuses to rule out running:
GLOBE: "NDP MP Olivia Chow, a former city councillor, refused to say whether she was considering a run, replying "Good gosh, this is a David Miller day." Her husband, NDP Leader Jack Layton, flatly ruled himself out of the race, however."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/contenders-pretenders-scram...
MACLEANS.CA: Maclean's blogger Aaron Wherry posted this email exchange with Chow:
-------------------------------------------------------
—–Original Message—–
From: Aaron Wherry
To: Chow, Olivia
Sent: Fri Sep 25 15:35:36 2009
Subject:
Olivia…
Any chance you’ll run for mayor of Toronto?
Wherry.
—–Original Message—–
From: Chow, Olivia
To: Aaron Wherry
Sent: Fri 9/25/2009 6:07 PM
Subject: Thanks for thinking about me
I will let you know on Twitter if I am interested.
-------------------------------------------------------
Alos, Toronto writer and blogger Kris Scheuer lists Chow as one of the top ten possible candidates:
http://kscheuer.wordpress.com/2009/09/25/who-will-be-next-toronto-mayor/
If this is an intentional strategy by Olivia Chow, I think its brilliant. In reality there is zero chance of her running for mayor. But it makes sense that it helps her to get publicity
When people talk about her as a potential mayor it just send out a message to swing voters in Trinity-spadina that OC is a big shot with star quality. I hope that citizens groups implore her to run for mayor and that it gets as much publicity as possible. Then she can say that her place is in Ottawa, be flattered by all the attention and raise her profile!
Maybe LBAL is actually part of Chow's re-election team and is doing his part to genersate positive publicity for her
While you on the other hand must be schill for the Liberal organization, making her sound like a garden variety self-serving political manipulator and thus undermining her reputation for integrity. The only thing worse than NDP'rs sounding like naive liberals, is when they try and sound like smooth talking cagey political operators -- it just makes them sound envious of a-morality.
I'm not sure how to respond to such an incoherent stream of consciousness...
my only point is that I'm delighted that Liberal bloggers are touting Olivia Chow as a potential mayor of Toronto. It helps promote her as a politician of national significance who punches above her weight. The more they create a "buzz" about her as a possible mayor - the more positive publicity it creates for her. I don't hear anyone suggesting that Christine Innes should run for mayor - i guess these Liberal bloggers acknowledge that Olivia Chow has far more to offer than does their own Grade Z place holder of a candidate.
I'm not sure what the Liberals purpose is in talking up Olivia as a potential mayor - but it can only backfire by making her look even more attractive in the eyes of the voters - and all she has to do is say NOTHING!
I was surprised Olivia didn't increase her margin of victory last year - in '06 and '08 she won by about 3500 votes. Trinity-Spadina is certainly not in the bag for the NDP.
Nobody ever said it was in the bag - but if these Liberal bloggers keep putting out the word that Olivia Chow is such a superstar that she ought to be mayor of Toronto - they may inadvertently be helping to her to get more positive publicity and cement her hold on the riding.
On behalf of the NDP, I'd like to express my sincere thanks to Liberal bloggers everywhere for touting Olivia Chow as a potential mayor - and thereby helping her get re-elected to parliament.
I'm not sure how to respond to such an incoherent stream of consciousness...
my only point is that I'm delighted that Liberal bloggers are touting Olivia Chow as a potential mayor of Toronto. It helps promote her as a politician of national significance who punches above her weight. The more they create a "buzz" about her as a possible mayor - the more positive publicity it creates for her. I don't hear anyone suggesting that Christine Innes should run for mayor - i guess these Liberal bloggers acknowledge that Olivia Chow has far more to offer than does their own Grade Z place holder of a candidate.
I'm not sure what the Liberals purpose is in talking up Olivia as a potential mayor - but it can only backfire by making her look even more attractive in the eyes of the voters - and all she has to do is say NOTHING!
I am saying that despite her best efforts to maintain the appearance of some kind integrity, you are making her out to be a garden variety political operator with your amateurish theories about the political machinations of her PR "team, by manufacturing "buzz" at the expense of the truth.
I guess you think it sounds smart -- You are a real smooth smoothy, Stockholm. Jack as you see, has clearly ruled out running. Perhaps his PR team is not as "sophisticated" as Olivia's.
So, I am speculating that it is you who is really the covert "Liberal" blogger, and not LBAL, as you assert.
I speculate that Olivia is keeping her options "open".
The polling thread indicates the Cons gaining ground in TO ridings, and the Liberals slipping badly.
Unless the Conservatives win about 300 seats, Trinity-Spadina won't be going Tory.
No, I'm saying that IF her people have done anything to create this buzz - then my hats off to them for being so shrewd. I think its more likely that some amateurish Liberal bloggers who have watched a few too many episodes of the West Wing outsmarted themselves and got hoisted on their own petards.
If I were Olivia Chow and it came my attention that the Liberal blogoshpere was touting me as a possible mayor - I'd smile to myself, be coy, say NOTHING and enjoy the Liberal manufactured positive publicity while it lasts! What's not to like?
So then surely Jack's organization is equally savvy and would likewise keep their cards close to their chests on Jack's position on the Mayoralty race. Perhaps that has been the problem all along, Jack is surrounded by incompetent's and Olivia is the spinmaster of spinmasters. Hats off to you Stockholm. Your attempts to sound like you are a smooth political operator only brings the party into disrepute, once again.
Jack is already leader of the NDP and gets saturation publicity every day of the week - he doesn't need to be the subject of idle gossip about the Toronto mayoralty for people in his riding to know that he's a national political figure.
I'm not sure what your point is. I'm just glad that Liberal bloggers seem to be giving Olivia Chow all this positive publicity by musing about her as a possible mayor of Canada's largest city. I guess it burns you up because you have such a pathological hatred for her and were hoping that these Liberal stuns would help defeat her. Instead they will backfire. I understand your feelings, it hurts to be FOILED.
Good chance she wont win this riding next time out. If not then it might be a good move for her. She is a bit wasted up there in the talking shop.
I had the impression that you hated all political movements that aren't based in the streets. How do the politics of Toronto city hall differ from the politics of The House?Jack is already leader of the NDP and gets saturation publicity every day of the week - he doesn't need to be the subject of idle gossip about the Toronto mayoralty for people in his riding to know that he's a national political figure.
Wooot!
I'm not sure what your point is. I'm just glad that Liberal bloggers seem to be giving Olivia Chow all this positive publicity by musing about her as a possible mayor of Canada's largest city. I guess it burns you up because you have such a pathological hatred for her and were hoping that these Liberal stuns would help defeat her. Instead they will backfire. I understand your feelings, it hurts to be FOILED.
In no way shape or form do I associate Olivia Chow with you. I don't dislike her at all. This was indeed part of my point. If you really cared about her fortunes, you would stop being "supportive". All the good this speculated "liberal" bloggery has done for her, you seem intent on undermining it. This is why I questioned your alliegiance, by the same token as you allege these others are really "liberal" agents, so might you be, based on the effect your speculations about her engaging in slimey political gamesmanship and spin would have.
Here is the big reason why Olivia Chow will not run: she became a Member of Parliament on January 23, 2006. She needs to survive federal politics until January 23, 2012 so that she can get a pension. This will sound crass: Olivia Chow should hope that the next parliament has a majority government--Conservative or Liberal (or NDP which I doubt). That way, she will become eligible for a pension upon leaving federal office.
---
I will accept Stockholm's assertion that Adam Vaughan is not an NDPer. I believe Vaughan wanted NDP support when he first decided to run for council. However, the local NDP supporters decided to support another candidate.
I have read that Adam Vaughan will not be running for mayor. He, like others who supported Miller on many issues, would have a hard time getting elected as anyone associated with Miller will have the "Miller tag" attached by the opposing candidates.
For 2010, I don't think there will be any social democratic candidates running for mayor. The risks of losing is too high. Any social democrat who wishes to run will likely wait for 2014.
---
While I think there will be a lot of potential candidates testing the waters to see if they should run for mayor, I think many will not run. John Tory will be the front runner. Karen Stintz and Denzil Minnan-Wong will test the waters but will probably not run. George Smitherman needs to raise his profile in the suburbs of Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough or else he won't have a chance in beating John Tory. Smitherman could do well if he gives a clear indication to the voters why he wants to become mayor and what he plans to do. He will need to take some risks if he wishes to run for mayor. Smitherman will need to act quickly. I give him a 50-50 chance in running for mayor.
If Its Tory vs. Smitherman - I say VOTE TORY!!!
Bringing the party into disrepute once more.
Here is the big reason why Olivia Chow will not run: she became a Member of Parliament on January 23, 2006. She needs to survive federal politics until January 23, 2012 so that she can get a pension. This will sound crass: Olivia Chow should hope that the next parliament has a majority government--Conservative or Liberal (or NDP which I doubt). That way, she will become eligible for a pension upon leaving federal office.
Fair enough. But I say this. Given that Trinity Spadina is not sown up, and that the federal election may indeed happen before the Toronto Mayoralty race, and Olivia might lose, she would be stupid to rule out running, since if she loses she wont be getting that pension anyway if she does lose in TP. Ruling out running for mayor would be foolish. She certainly isn't going to step down in TP to run, but that doesn't mean she might not want to if things don't pan out.
I say this despite Stockholm's wild eyed musings about the Machiavellian antics of her million dollar a day PR team. One would think that a true NDP loyalist would stop spilling the beans on the inside story behind Olivia's clever scheming.
I'm very flattered if you think I have any "beans to spill". I just read the newspapers and some blogs like everyone else and express my opinions.
The stuff about pensions is total bull shit. Most MPs could snap their fingers and make more money in the private sector than as an MP and work a lot less hard.
If you want to know a really fast road to personal bankruptcy, it would be to run for mayor of Toronto. It is conservatively estimated that to mount a remotely credible campaign you need at least a $1 million and most candidates end up lending their own campaigns their life savings and spend years trying to pay off all the debts afterwards.
In any case, anyone who had the slightest intention of running for mayor had better decide like NOW! Because you need a good year to fundraise and get support and campaign all across Toronto. The idea that anyone is going to run for Parliament next spring, lose and then say "Oh gee, I lost my seat in parliament, I guess I should try to be mayor of Toronto instead as a consolation prize and to ensure that I still have a pay cheque" is ABSURD. Running for mayor is a huge personal sacrifice that will lead to probable personal financial ruin for all but the winner.
That is what I think, yes. No beans to spill.
If Its Tory vs. Smitherman - I say VOTE TORY!!!
I'd stay home or vote for a fringe candidate.
Good chance she wont win this riding next time out. If not then it might be a good move for her. She is a bit wasted up there in the talking shop.
Let's try this again. You seem to put more faith in the politics of pavement pounding then the actions of hand shaking, suit wearing politicos. Given your pronouced anti suit bias, why are you so much in favor of Olivia becoming mayor of Toronto?
Not sure if he wanted "NDP support" as much as "NDP supporters", i.e. in the John Sewell tradition, he styled himself as an "independent progressive".
But remember, too, his card-carrying Liberal father Colin Vaughan--didn't he have some play in David Lewis's 1974 defeat?
Jack couldn't get elected mayor in '91 within the old city of Toronto boundaries. I can't see Olivia picking up the necessary votes in the 'burbs, esp. with the current anti tax, anti union sentiments whipped up by the city strike.
It's still a long way to November 2010, but I think any left of centre candidate will find it tough slogging. Paul Godfrey and the developers will likely unify around a right of centre candidate and raise buckletloads of money to ensure victory.
That is assuming that voter turn-out is evenly distributed. The fact is that no left candidate will succeed in the burbs for the reasons you have outlined. Voter interest in city elections is notoriously low, so in fact about the only chance the "left" has of success is doing well in central core and hoping for a lack lustre performance by the right in suburbs. In fact, someone like Chow is about the only kind of person who has the weight to pull left leaning voters out in strength, and pull off this trick.
If Its Tory vs. Smitherman - I say VOTE TORY!!!
I'd stay home or vote for a fringe candidate.
Any word on whether Enza Supermodel Anderson is running again?
Considering how David was successfully painted as dangerously left-wing, capitulating to unions, raising taxes, etc, I can't see Olivia leaving federal politics and reducing the # of NDP MPs to run for mayor on a long-shot.
Right. Again, but it would be foolish for Olivia to exclude the possibility since she might soon be out of federal politics, and in such circumstances running for mayor would seem much more reasonable. Being mayor of Toronto is in no means a step down from being an MP for the opposition.
The ONLY possible way that someone "left of centre" could get elected mayor of Toronto in the current climate would be if they were an extremely progressive card-carrying Liberal with a home base in the suburbs - in other words Shelley Carroll. Anyone else would just be pissing away a million dollars and a vast amount of volunteer effort for nothing.
I think that unless Shelley Carroll runs, the "left" (for want of a better word) should ignore the race for mayor, concentrate on council races and force Smitherman and Tory to compete over who can attract the progressive vote.
BTW: If we are talking about NDPers who might want to run for mayor for no other reason than to avoid collecting EI - forget Olivia Chow who has a job right now and look no further than Marilyn Churley who hasn't been doing much since losing in Beaches-East York last year - and she at least has five years fo experience as a provincial cabinet minister.
The fact is that no left candidate will succeed in the burbs for the reasons you have outlined.
It can be done under favourable circumstances. Miller carried all but one of the suburban wards in the 2006 election. However, he was (at the time) a very popular incumbent running against a weak candidate in the form of Jane Pitfield, who got only marginal support from the centre-right faction of council and their backers.
In fact, someone like Chow is about the only kind of person who has the weight to pull left leaning voters out in strength, and pull off this trick.
I agree. Compared with the other potential left leaning candidates -- Vaughn, Giambrone, maybe Joe Mihevc or Janet Davis -- Olivia Chow would generate a much higher level of interest and excitement in the mayoral race. But her chances of victory are likely marginal at best.
For example, myself. I might consider voting in a civic election were Chow running for mayor. Otherwise I might skip it, or even forget.
I know Chow, and I know she works for her constituents and tries to get things done. These others, people like Vaugn, I have no clue about. i am not really into brands.
The ONLY possible way that someone "left of centre" could get elected mayor of Toronto in the current climate would be if they were an extremely progressive card-carrying Liberal with a home base in the suburbs - in other words Shelley Carroll. Anyone else would just be pissing away a million dollars and a vast amount of volunteer effort for nothing.
I think that unless Shelley Carroll runs, the "left" (for want of a better word) should ignore the race for mayor, concentrate on council races and force Smitherman and Tory to compete over who can attract the progressive vote.
Carroll is, to the best of my knowledge, a Liberal, and she would likely face a lot of pressure not to run if Smitherman throws his hat in the ring. The extent to which the "left" needs to focus on council races vs. the mayoralty will depend greatly on the extent to which the province bails the city of its 2010 budget mess. If Dalton at least gives the city enough duct tape and band aids to maintain current services without double digit property tax hikes, then the current palpable level of anger towards the left among Toronto voters will likely dissapate into the usual levels of apathy when the election rolls around. On the other hand, if the province forces the city into major service cuts and/or property tax hikes, then the level of anger will rise and the left will need to devote their energy into holding every ward they can.
I think that the business community will get behind a candidate of their choice. Big money and big business is hard to fight against. Mel got all the developers of his side and thats why he was so successful.
Being mayor of Toronto is in no means a step down from being an MP for the opposition.
Isn't T.O. city hall a smaller version of the house of commons?For example, myself. I might consider voting in a civic election were Chow running for mayor. Otherwise I might skip it, or even forget.
I know Chow, and I know she works for her constituents and tries to get things done. These others, people like Vaugn, I have no clue about. i am not really into brands.
Gee, you like her so much that just a year ago you were bragging and gloating about how you had voted for her Liberal opponent and wanted her to lose her seat. With friends like these - who needs enemies?
Yes, I don't really associate Chow with the NDP. She is really a wasted force in Ottawa gallery of poseurs, so there is no point really in voting for her. Plus she officially carries the NDP stigma when running for you in TP. Many good reasons to vote against. On city council of as mayor, none of that applies.
You DID vote liberal? If you really don't care about electoral politics, why didn't you just stay home, thereby avoiding the codemnation of your fellow radicals? Your decision seems greasy and rather stupid.
Stockholm's making shit up as usual. I voted for one of the local independents. Stockholm is just retreating into his empty "anyone who is not an NDP supporter" is a Liberal schill routine. Interesting that you believed it. That is why libel is dangerous. There were a bunch of fucking NDP sychophants on this site repeating that bullshit over and over again, during the last election. I guess they got it from Stockholm. You repeat a lie often enough... etc. as Goebel's said. It really speaks to the kind of politics that Stockholm represents, scurilous and sleazy. I must admit, no one on this board has hardened me to the NDP more than Stockholm.
Smear, attack, and deflect: Scumbag politics, dishonest and mean.
Stockholm, another good reason to not vote NDP. He brings the party into "disrepute".
Stockholm did make a good point about Marilyn Churley - if it were her or Olivia, who do you think?
I have met both of them, and I like them both, but Marilyn is friendlier, more warmly personable and unpretentious. She might be more effective at generating broad support, while I have to say, Olivia tends to be admired more than liked.
Assuming Churley has aspirations to enter municipal politics, she would be better off running for councillor in Case Oote's ward, esp. if he vacates it due to long-standing health problems.
I'd like to see Steve Harper or even Michael Igstoogioff run for mayor. They might achieve a personal and ultimately new level of incompetence if they tried real hard.
Uh, Cueball, a simple, "You're mistaken - I didn't say I voted Liberal - I voted for the independent," probably would have been sufficient. Even a bit of bristling at Stockholm's tone might have been okay. Your response is over the top, however, and I think you know it.
I don't really see it that way. What I see is Stockholm stating flat out that person after person is a Liberal supporter, or agent or whatever, and getting away with it, and smearing them. Precisely the effect we see is CMOT and others actually believing it. I think its an intentional debating strategy, on top of trolling. This behaviour is far too consistent to be a simple "mistake".
Just look at post six of this thread:
In any case, this is just a nuisance thread started by some Liberal who knows that the only way a Liberal can hope to win Trinity-Spadina would be if Olivia Chow didn't run there. But there is absolutely ZERO chance of that happening - so they can dream on.
And what is the end result of this kind of smear tactic? Simple, I am being chastised by CMOT Dibbler for voting Liberal. Mistaken? I don't think so. At all.
You really think that Stockholm "mistakenly" believed that I voted Liberal? I really don't see why his "speculations" about people's political affiliations and whatever are being allowed free reign, at all.
Stockholm's making shit up as usual. I voted for one of the local independents.
Watchout everybody, it's the ol' I voted for a high quality independent candidate capable of thinking for him or herself on case by case basis as they see fit schtick. These independent candidates so good, in fact, that they don't even need a political platform to be held accountable to. Just a wink an' a nod is good enough for the most democratically minded voters. And here I believed him when he said he abstains from voting altogether. Typical.
Why don't you fuck off, since you have nothing productive to add other than more smear jobs and personal attacks.
Stockholm wrote:
In any case, this is just a nuisance thread started by some Liberal who knows that the only way a Liberal can hope to win Trinity-Spadina would be if Olivia Chow didn't run there. But there is absolutely ZERO chance of that happening - so they can dream on.
This thread was started LBAL - who i think we can all agree is a Liberal Party supporter (as his name suggests). Cueball flatters himself if he thinks I was referring to him.
Why don't you fuck off, since you have nothing productive to add other than more smear jobs and personal attacks.
And not only that, your punctuation is atrocious, too.
I don't. I was simply pointing out the consistency of your disinformation. You know full well I didn't vote for a Liberal in the last election and you are just engaging in a conscious smear job because you have no arguement. That is just a smear job, because you can't do any better.
You told us you didn't vote for anyone in the last election. This was in addition to your stated interest in a spoil your ballot campaign. I must say I just don't know what to think now.
Fidel, let's just tiptoe away while "Morticia" has another of her tantrums.
Scotty, beam us the heck outa here.
You told us you didn't vote for anyone in the last election. This was in addition to your stated interest in a spoil your ballot campaign. I must say I just don't know what to think now.
No actually. I did not. Now its friggin obvious that both of you are so busy tying yourself in knots with my failure to comply with your seriously backward political views that you can't even read what is front of your face. Perhaps the dearth of logic the two of you exhibit has everything to do with the fact that you are doing LSD before reading.
Now rather than speculating on who I vote for, or trying to sort through your garbled memories for the scoop on my political affiliations, why don't you come up with some quotes where I said the things you allege I have said or shut up?
Somebody please close this thread.
Voting is wrong starring you know who
Where did I say: I "abstain from voting altogether." No where. Where did I say I voted Liberal, as Stockholm said? Where anything? What is most absurd of course is that you are now bringing up all of this crapola, when in fact I stated long ago that I voted for an independent candidate in my riding in the last federal election, and we indeed discussed why I did so then. I gave my reasons at the time.
In fact reading the thread you can see that voting for an Indpendent candidate is entirely consistent with the arguement I made in that thread, not that what I actually say has anything to do with your fantasy land.
Now is the Mcarthy inquirey finished yet?
Cue, I love you but for the love of god, take a breath and STEP AWAY FROM THE FUCKING KEYBOARD.
I'm sorry for asuming that you voted lib...
So what you really meant to say in that thread title is that it's every citizen's obligation to take 20 minutes out of their lives once every four years to mark an X on a ballot?
Right. So people sit here spread fucking bullshit about what I have said, and what I believe, the a moderator comes along chastizes me for pointing out how sleazy that is, and now you are at it too. Like what the fuck about telling these idiots that who I vote for is none of their business? What about telling them that speculating upon the "secret" identities of other posters is simply wrong. What about telling Bozos like Stockholm that he is simply not welcome to make up stories about people and smear people up and down the board, simply because he has been around for a while, and thinks he has the inside track on their motives?
But ok, its I who should "step away" from the keyboard.
So what you really meant to say in that thread title is that it's every citizen's obligation to take 20 minutes out of their lives once every four years to mark an X on a ballot?
Why don't you read the thread, for 20 minutes, and maybe you can figure that out.
No need to, because voting is wrong. You, the voter, said so yourself.
Nope Fidel. Its an idea that has more than three letters in it. If you apply yourself. Work hard. I am sure you can come up with something that is actually about the topic of this thread, or even what I said in the thread you qouted. Do you get your education reading the covers of books? Did you know that there are more words inside? Same thing with a thread on a web site more words inside.
I hope they don't give you a headache. All those words.
105 posts already? My how time flies when youre having fun.
Exactly Fidel, and you have yet to have one post on this thread with the word "Chow" in it. Interesting huh?
So voting is good, because you do it all the time. Now we know. So which of Canada's 30 some-odd registered political parties will you be advocating for? Nzuh! I forgot, now it's the independent candidate party of one looking good for running the country. We get it now. He (or even she) should have multiple personalities to wear all those different hats as dictator of our Northern Puerto Rico.
Fidel off topic stalking and trolling, on top of Stockholm's smear jobs. That summarizes this thread pretty much.
For the sake of posterity, it begins with this:
Stockholm's making shit up as usual. I voted for one of the local independents.
Watchout everybody, it's the ol' I voted for a high quality independent candidate capable of thinking for him or herself on case by case basis as they see fit schtick. These independent candidates so good, in fact, that they don't even need a political platform to be held accountable to. Just a wink an' a nod is good enough for the most democratically minded voters. And here I believed him when he said he abstains from voting altogether. Typical.
Off topic stalking and trolling. I am getting a little tired of "stop it you two". That was on top of taking the hit for calling Stockholm on his smear job.
Do the moderators step in to ask Stockholm to "speculate" less on the political affiliations or the people that they voted for? Nope.
Don't ask me why I bothered to go back and dig this up but on October 14, 2008,
"Cueball" posted the following:
"Nasty partisan attacks and smears by Layton New Dems on this site have encouraged me to vote Liberal, which is what I will be doing this time around. In this they did wrong."
YOu can run but you can't hide. I rest my case.
Stockholm does it again...
"Nasty partisan attacks and smears by Layton New Dems on this site have encouraged me to vote Liberal, which is what I will be doing this time around. In this they did wrong."
Come on. How is this interpreted as being literal? Cue was obviously trying to troll the hyperpartisans of a particular party with that quote and not clearly stating his voting attention last October. Unless, he actually voted for the Liberals for the actual reasons stated in the quote, and then maybe the hyperpartisans need to reconsider their on-board strategies.
Intense partisanship is highly off-putting to most people, actually.
I took it literally given that the person who posted has been remarkably devoid of any sense of humour or irony in all the years he has posted here.
When someone clicks the "flag as offensive" button, it appears before the mods in something called the Abuse Moderation list, presumably in the order posts were clicked.
This mornings treat, a bit longer than some, consisted of most of you bozos but not all, kvetching about one another on this thread. We'll probably ignore all of them.
Delighted to close for length. Feel free to start a new thread if you like. As an exercise in debating skills, maybe some of the silverbacks around here could try posting without their ego's so fully engaged, or without the self righteous level of high dudgeon. Try medium dudgeon.