Election 2019: What the Liberals Don't Want Canadian Voters To Know

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Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
kropotkin1951 wrote:

The question for the NDP has always been the same, can it make significant gains in the 121 seats in Ontario. The party has never been and never will be viable unless it supplants the Liberals in much of Ontario. The Liberals are not progressive and maybe Trudeau has taught that lesson to a new generation. Mulcair only got 8 seats in Ontario and lost most of the Quebec seats so Jagmeet has a very low bar to follow. Even Jack in the 2011 Crush only won 22 seats in Ontario. To be a contender for government in the next election the NDP needs to up its Ontario seat count to at least the 2011 high if not closer to 30. It is the Liberals who the NDP needs to make gains from as some of the Liberal vote looks for a real progressive alternative and Jagmeet excites the new voters because he appears to be the real deal not a used carpet salesman nicknamed Aladdin.

Iagree -- I believe the greatest gains will be made in Ontario this time due to better splits in part but they will not be to the levels you rightly say the party needs.

I think there will be losses in Western Canada that will be heartbreaking due to Liberal vote declines where the NDP vote holds but is not enough. I hope this does not happen but this is what I expect now.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. I helped on Blaikie's campaign in Elmwood last time, and based on the lawn signs I saw I would have never guessed that the Liberals would have had as much support as they did. That tells me that people all across the country turned out on larger numbers to support Justin Trudeau. Where will these Liberals go? Was Singh able to connect with them and convince them that he is the change they thought Trudeau represented 4 years ago? Will they simply not vote, leaving the race to the usual Conservative-NDP dynamic? Where will this all go?

I am confused by this response. I also do not think that this is necessarily the case and I worded it that way to make it clear. However the NDP won many races where there was a split between the Liberals and the Conservatives and has good reason to worry that a Liberal collapse to a two party race will cost seats.

This comes down to a single question: Can the NDP be relied on to take the majority of votes that the Liberals lose?  I do not think so. If this is the case half the time then the NDP loses half of the seats it won in a three way split,

Losing half of those seats is a major loss. Half still does not mean it is necessarily the case. It just means half. Three  quarter success even is still a big loss. There are many ridings where the Liberals in 2015 got a substantial vote that I think will no longer be theirs this time. Many of those ridings have voted Conservative recently. To assume the NDP gets the bulk of support that flowed to the Liberals and has now gone from the Liberals is a long shot.

It is true that math based on universal movement of support shows a different dynamic than what we will see. One variable in NDP support is how much strategic voting is out there. If it is a lot then the NDP support would expect to pile up in the best seats winning some of these and being lower in Liberal seats. If there is less strategic vote then there are seats that will be lost due to Liberal collapse.

When I ran the math I saw the same thing in Quebec. There is a real reduction in NDP support. This, I think, could cost the NDP 12 of 16 seats or there about. The same dynamic would cost the Conservatives one and the Liberals 5 with no other support changing other than an NDP loss of some support to the BQ. There were tight 3-way races the NDP did not win where if their support goes BQ the winning Conservative or Liberal will lose. a point is that the BQ came close second in many races and not just to the NDP.

The same dynamic exists in parts of BC and Saskatchewan to the detriment of the NDP. The rise of the Greens has limited NDP rise where it needed to have it in some places. ThisGreen rise has slid back but not all the way. It also exists in Ontario, very much in the NDP's favour. Loss of Liberal vote to Conservatives can deliver many NDP-Liberal races to the NDP without much of an NDP increase or even without any change for the NDP. This is why in my projection I saw many NDP seats lost in Quebec but significant gains in Ontario and a couple in Atlantic Canada. I have the NDP almost even with the result from last time at the Ontario Manitoba Border (down just slightly).

At this point, we know that the NDP is down significantly in parts of the country and up significantly in other parts to a national total that is close to the last election. What we do not know is the distribution of that vote. We have no reference: the 2015 and 2011 results are very obviously a different distribution and going beyond that is a fantasy given demographic and riding changes. the seats are just too close to use data that old. We really have no idea how efficient the NDP vote will be this time -- it it will pile up deep enough in three way races to take many of them or produce heart-breaking seconds. All we can say is not necessarily to every single hope and every single fear. The pollsters know this and you can see the widest confidence band ever in their predictions in part due to this. It is the distribution of the NDP vote that is likely to decide this election for just about every party.

 

Aristotleded24

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
kropotkin1951 wrote:

The question for the NDP has always been the same, can it make significant gains in the 121 seats in Ontario. The party has never been and never will be viable unless it supplants the Liberals in much of Ontario. The Liberals are not progressive and maybe Trudeau has taught that lesson to a new generation. Mulcair only got 8 seats in Ontario and lost most of the Quebec seats so Jagmeet has a very low bar to follow. Even Jack in the 2011 Crush only won 22 seats in Ontario. To be a contender for government in the next election the NDP needs to up its Ontario seat count to at least the 2011 high if not closer to 30. It is the Liberals who the NDP needs to make gains from as some of the Liberal vote looks for a real progressive alternative and Jagmeet excites the new voters because he appears to be the real deal not a used carpet salesman nicknamed Aladdin.

Iagree -- I believe the greatest gains will be made in Ontario this time due to better splits in part but they will not be to the levels you rightly say the party needs.

I think there will be losses in Western Canada that will be heartbreaking due to Liberal vote declines where the NDP vote holds but is not enough. I hope this does not happen but this is what I expect now.

I don't think that's necessarily the case. I helped on Blaikie's campaign in Elmwood last time, and based on the lawn signs I saw I would have never guessed that the Liberals would have had as much support as they did. That tells me that people all across the country turned out on larger numbers to support Justin Trudeau. Where will these Liberals go? Was Singh able to connect with them and convince them that he is the change they thought Trudeau represented 4 years ago? Will they simply not vote, leaving the race to the usual Conservative-NDP dynamic? Where will this all go?

I am confused by this response. I also do not think that this is necessarily the case and I worded it that way to make it clear. However the NDP won many races where there was a split between the Liberals and the Conservatives and has good reason to worry that a Liberal collapse to a two party race will cost seats.

This comes down to a single question: Can the NDP be relied on to take the majority of votes that the Liberals lose?  I do not think so. If this is the case half the time then the NDP loses half of the seats it won in a three way split,

Losing half of those seats is a major loss. Half still does not mean it is necessarily the case. It just means half. Three  quarter success even is still a big loss. There are many ridings where the Liberals in 2015 got a substantial vote that I think will no longer be theirs this time. Many of those ridings have voted Conservative recently. To assume the NDP gets the bulk of support that flowed to the Liberals and has now gone from the Liberals is a long shot.

I'm not assuming that the NDP will win a majority of these extra Liberal votes in 2015. These Liberal voters staying home could also happen, and that doesn't affect the NDP-Conservative race.

Going back to my Elmwood example, many people in Elmwood voted Liberal because of Trudeamania, independent of any local organizing. Many of these voters would be disillusioned with what they thought Trudeau represented. Do you think that Scheer might have some appeal to these voters? What appeal do you imagine that to be?

I'm reading in your post an assumption that the Liberal surge in 2015 will go Conservative. I don't think that is necessarily the case.

Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

I'm reading in your post an assumption that the Liberal surge in 2015 will go Conservative. I don't think that is necessarily the case.

Your assumption is completely incorrect and downright bizarre given my posts. I have already said I do not think it is necessarily the case.

I am saying there is a possibility that more of it in some seats will go Conservative and more may go NDP in some seats. Thing is the NDP won most of these seats in 2015 in SK and BC so this means likely NDP losses there unless they win the lottery in almost every seat. In Ontario the NDP lost almost all of these seats in 2015 so it means almost certain gains.

I am going from a comparison between voting in 2015 and regional polling now. Certainly the NDP could be more concentrated but I do not see why the NDP would concentrate more now in those seats with fewer incumbants than they had in 2015. There is reason to think that the NDP vote could be more spread out as people in Liberal seats may reject strategic voting due to the broken promise Trudeau made.

If the NDP does not get a majority of these votes in every case where there is a three way split and the Liberal vote goes to other parties then the NDP - the NDP will lose some seats due to the splits. As I said they will also gain some. This is the variable.

Sure some of the vote will stay home -- but of those who do vote  - the NDP has to take more than the Conservative in these splits or risk losing the close seats they won last time.

I have no idea when I raise this as a possibility why you insist on challenging me saying it is not a certainty. This just seems to repeat my point.

My point is also that there are many of these seats and the NDP will not win them all as the split may go their way in some places but you cannot expect that it will in all cases -- especially when there is a loss of a popular incumbant as well -- unless there is serious strategic voting in the NDP favour. And that too may not be consistent.

This is why I expect the NDP to win some of these splits in BC and Sask and lose some others -- with a loss of some of these seats and to gain in Ontario. The reason is simple: the NDP won more seats due to good splits in 2015 in Sask and BC and lost more due to bad splits in Ontario. Also the NDP is up in Ontario and is not up in SK and BC where they are close to level while the CPC is up.

 

NorthReport

Path to Andrew Scheer-led majority government tough but not inconceivable, says B.C. academic

 

by Carlito Pablo on October 17th, 2019 at 10:39 AM

1

  • Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has called on Canadians to give his party a majority mandate.

  • Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has called on Canadians to give his party a majority mandate.

A B.C. academic says a Conservative majority government led by Andrew Scheer cannot be totally discounted.

While polling for the October 21 election suggests a minority government led either by Conservatives or Liberals, Hamish Telford of the University of the Fraser Valley noted that a majority mandate for Scheer is not to be ruled out.

However, Telford, an associate professor of political science, also pointed out that the path to a Conservative majority is “not clear”.

“I don’t think that they have a good chance, but it’s not inconceivable,” Telford told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview.

Scheer called on Canadians to give his party a majority mandate on Monday (October 14) after NDP leader Jagmeet Singh stated that he would “absolutely” support a coalition government with Justin Trudeau and the Liberals.

In a statement on that day, Scheer said that Trudeau “will pay any price to stay in power”.

According to Scheer, a Liberal-NDP coalition will mean a higher carbon tax, fewer jobs, and bigger budget deficits.

“There’s only one way for Canadians to stop this coalition that you cannot afford: Vote for Andrew Scheer and elect a Conservative majority government,” the Conservative leader said.

Telford noted that the Conservative vote is “not very efficient”.

“They’re getting far too many votes in Alberta and Saskatchewan to be helpful, but they’re not getting enough votes in the other regions of the country,” Telford explained. “However, if the vote splits amongst the three other parties [Liberal, NDP, Greens], and the People’s Party [of Canada] is not much of a factor on the other side, then we could see Conservatives winning ridings with a plurality of the vote, you know, in the low 30 percent range, 32, 33, 34 percent.”

“It’s very difficult to pull that off,” Telford continued. “I don’t think that the probabilities are great, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.”

According to Telford, it’s understandable that Scheer is trying to play on fears about a coalition government.

“We have so little experience in Canada with coalition governments that people are a little fearful of them,” he said. “I don’t think there’s any need to be necessarily fearful of coalition governments. Coalition governments are normal in most European countries.”

Telford said the situation is reminiscent of what happened after the 2008 election.

Then Conservative leader Stephen Harper won a minority government, and the Liberals and NDP agreed to form a coalition with the support of the Bloc Quebecois.

“Conservatives completely demonized the idea of coalition governments, and they succeeded, and the Liberals had to back away from that plan,” Telford recalled.

Telford declined to speculate that a potential majority win for the Conservatives can be partly accounted for by voters’ fears about a Liberal-NDP coalition.

“My own suspicion is that people have not been biding their time to decide about Andrew Scheer, but rather, they’ve been biding their time to decide if they want Justin Trudeau again,” Telford said. “I think a lot of Canadians have come to view Justin Trudeau as a bit of an embarrassment or that they would be embarrassed to vote for him and had been unwilling to lend him their support.”

“But when they go in to the privacy of the ballot booth and nobody is looking, may be they vote Liberal because they can’t abide the alternative,” Telford continued. “So I think this is more of a referendum about Justin Trudeau than it is about Andrew Scheer.”

https://www.straight.com/news/1315146/path-andrew-scheer-led-majority-government-tough-not-inconceivable-says-bc-academic

NorthReport

Too Close To Call is forecasting that the NDP and the Liberals would now win 176 seats (170 required for majority).

L - 134 seats

C - 125 seats

N - 42 seats 

B - 32 seats

G - 3 seats

P - 1 seat

I - 1 seat

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/10/un-regard-sur-le-quebec-et-surtout-le.html

NorthReport
josh
NorthReport
NorthReport

Everyone out of step except Franky?

Putting aside all the Liberal verbal diarrhea, looking at Nanos, who Liberals love to quote ad infinitum, from the beginning of the campaign to today The Jagmeet-led NDP has gained  7.5% against the hapless Justin-led Liberals 

Party / Sep 13 / Oct 19 / Difference

Cons / 32.8% / 31.5% / Down 1.3%

 Libs / 35.4% / 31%, Down 4.4%

NDP / 15.7% / 18.8% / Up 3.1%

Bloc / 3.6% / 7% / Up 3.4%

Grn / 9.5% / 9.5% / No Change

NorthReport

And again Leger, from their poll at the beginning of the campaign, to their most recent poll, the Jagmeet-led NDP has gained 7% on the tumbling Justin-led Liberals, and the Jagmeet-led NDP has gained 11% on the crashing and burning Elizabeth-led Greens

Party / Sep 17 / Oct 18 / Difference

Cons / 33% / 33% / No Change

Libs / 34% / 33% / Down 1%

Cons / 33% / 33% / No Change

NDP / 12% / 18% / Up 6%

Bloc / 5% / 8% / Up 3%

Grn / 11% / 6% / Down 5%

Ciabatta2

I always found the "they're going to raise the GST" angle as one to hurt Scheer because, if would be more likely to drivepeople from NDP to Liberal to avoid the (fake) tax increase.

NorthReport

Even Campaign Research, from the beginning of the campaign to now, shows that the NDP has gained 3.7% on the Liberals

Party /Oct 2 / Oct 19 / Difference

Libs  / 32% / 31.7% / Down 0.3%

Cons / 34% / 31.4% / Down 2.6%

NDP / 14% / 17.4% / Up 3.4% 

NorthReport

According to the actual polls, as opposed to the constant Liberal gobbedlygook, there has been no indication of the NDP shifting to the Liberals. As a matter of fact it is the reverse, and the Liberals have been shifting to the NDP, from the beginning of the campaign.

NorthReport

Talking about positivity and momentum, it appears the Jagmeet Singh-led  NDP has it in spades

Election 2019: All four leaders end their campaigns in Metro Vancouver trying to capture crucial B.C. votes

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh and Green leader Elizabeth May both campaigned in Vancouver Saturday. Liberal leader Justin Trudeau and the Conservative's Andrew Scheer are expected to be in Metro Vancouver on Sunday, for the final hours before Election Day on Monday.

LORI CULBERT 

Updated: October 19, 2019

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at a rally of supporters at the Vogue Theatre in Vancouver, BC Saturday, October 1, 2019. JASON PAYNE / PNG

https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/election-2019/election-2019-all-four-leaders-end-their-campaigns-in-metro-vancouver-trying-to-capture-crucial-b-c-votes

NorthReport

Here are side by side pictures of the rallies of and on the Saturday before the election. You tell me where the momentum is...

https://twitter.com/AD4Burlington/status/1185731514518122497

NorthReport

A sign of the times

Will Jagmeet Singh make history again?

 

KARMA?

Poetic justice?

Whatever you may call it, it seems that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau may end up paying a heavy price for his mean behaviour towards NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, if current polls continue to reflect the political reality on Election Day (Monday, October 21).

We will have to wait and see how it all plays out.

Two years ago, on October 1, 2017, Singh, who was then the Ontario MPP for Bramalea-Gore-Malton and the Ontario NDP deputy leader, made history once again by winning the federal NDP leadership – and he won on the first ballot.

Back in April 2015, Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath had appointed Singh as deputy leader of the party, thus making him the first turbaned Sikh to hold such a position in Canadian politics.

Now he had become not just the first turbaned Sikh but the first Sikh – and the first visible minority member – to head a federal party in Canada.

Back then, The VOICE wrote: “This now poses a threat to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party as the powerful Sikh vote is bound to get split between his party and the NDP. We will have to wait and see how all this pans out.”

And just days after that victory, The VOICE wrote: “Two-thirds of those who backed the Liberals in 2015 say they’d be prepared to give the NDP a look in the next federal election, according to the latest public opinion survey from the Angus Reid Institute.

“That surely has Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberals worried.”

In January of this year, The VOICE pointed out: “Trudeau played it dirty with Jagmeet Singh by delaying the Burnaby South byelection as long as he could because he is afraid of facing him in the House of Commons. Trudeau and the Liberals are scared that Jagmeet Singh’s performance in Parliament will give the NDP a boost that will be a threat to them in the election later this year.”

https://www.voiceonline.com/will-jagmeet-singh-make-history-again/

NorthReport

https://www.voiceonline.com/conservatives-hold-lead-in-bc-as-ndp-pushes-ahead-of-liberals/

But the most interesting election development in BC is the surge of the NDP over the campaign’s final weeks. The New Democrats have made a breakthrough to push ahead of the Liberals for second place in BC with 23% of voter support, up from 14% in mid-September. Much of that appears to be at the expense of the Green party (down to 11% support from 14% in mid-September) and by undecided voters making up their minds in the final days.

The NDP’s new-found polling strength appears to be coming from three groups where they have traditionally found support: women, younger voters, and voters in the coastal areas of Metro Vancouver and Vancouver Island. NDP support among younger voters in BC has hit a remarkable 33%, up 11 points from the mid-September poll. Support among BC women has also moved up from 16% in mid-September to 26% in the new poll. The NDP message has also resonated stronger in all regions of the province, with Metro Vancouver showing a near 10-point increase to 23% support.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Ha! Ha! Ha!

That's the same Jean Chretien that boasted that the Liberal Platform, the Red Book, is to be used for election campaigns only, as it goes into the shredder on election nite.  

https://twitter.com/G_Soule/status/1185698149643542529

quizzical

NorthReport wrote:

 - writen by a right-winger so take it with a big grain of salk...

https://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-all-eyes-on-b-c-as-the-federal-election-comes-down-to-the-wire

omfg so funny. maybe Jagmeet peaked too soon? 

don't think he's peaked yet. Lolol

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

quizzical wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

 - writen by a right-winger so take it with a big grain of salk...

https://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-all-eyes-on-b-c-as-the-federal-election-comes-down-to-the-wire

omfg so funny. maybe Jagmeet peaked too soon? 

don't think he's peaked yet. Lolol

A Postmedia piece with embedded fallacies to drive voters to Liberal/Tory same old story. This list is a list of ridings that the NDP also want to win but apparently they are not even relevant.

"In B.C., Liberal-held ridings in the Lower Mainland suburbs are particularly vulnerable. If the Conservatives are to break through, they must steal Liberal seats in places like Coquitlam, Cloverdale, Surrey and Maple Ridge."

 

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

According to the actual polls, as opposed to the constant Liberal gobbedlygook, there has been no indication of the NDP shifting to the Liberals. As a matter of fact it is the reverse, and the Liberals have been shifting to the NDP, from the beginning of the campaign.

I am unaware of any Liberal who has said that support has shifted from the NDP to the Liberals in this campaign.  Could you cite one in particular?

Sean in Ottawa

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

According to the actual polls, as opposed to the constant Liberal gobbedlygook, there has been no indication of the NDP shifting to the Liberals. As a matter of fact it is the reverse, and the Liberals have been shifting to the NDP, from the beginning of the campaign.

I am unaware of any Liberal who has said that support has shifted from the NDP to the Liberals in this campaign.  Could you cite one in particular?

Well I do know of some NDP support that shifted to Liberals. Maybe you are not speaking to people from enough places.

This place was Newmarket. Lois Brown is tapped to win and NDP voters will do anything to stop her. The NDP is not a factor there. These were last second -- and from people disgusted with Trudeau who will shower right after voting. they are from people who will not advertise it either becuase they do not believe in promotion of strategic voting or want to reward Trudeau for broken promise. Trudeau does not deserve their vote but they do not deserve a Conservative MP either.

The key is that any NDP loses are in situations like that -- not where the party could actually take the seat.

The NDP vote might be surprisingly efficient as strategic voters are now much more reluctant and choosy - giving the Liberals a vote when the local Conservative could win and the NDP is right out of it.

Some also did this to increase the NDP power in the House: if the Liberals have enough seats the NDP can have balance of power whereas if the Conservatives govern the NDP has no influence.

Not debating the merit of the argument with you -- just saying this is a rationale some are working through.

Pondering

I was looking for this:

https://globalnews.ca/video/6031735/federal-election-2019-trudeau-says-progressive-opposition-was-unable-to-stop-harper-cuts/

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau said Monday that a progressive opposition made of Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois MPs were “unable to stop” cuts by former prime minister Stephen Harper, as he continued to push for a “progressive government” to be elected on Oct. 21.

Didn't the Liberals and Trudeau himself vote for those cuts?

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Forum shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 7.8% on the Liberals

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Nanos shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 7.7% on the Liberals

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Mainstreet shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 13.6% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Research Co shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 8% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

EKOS shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 5.2% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Campaign Research shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 4.4% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Ipsos shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 8% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Leger shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 7% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Innovative Research shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 8% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

Cons - 139 seats

Libs - 139 seats

N - 38 seats

B - 37 seats

G - 3 seats

P - 1 seat

I - 1 seat

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2019/10/final-projections-for-canada-2019.html

NorthReport

What the Liberals don't want you to know

From their first poll since the writ was dropped to their most recent poll

Dart/Maru shows the NDP, with continuing momentum, gaining 9% on the Liberals 

NorthReport

338

C- 112.9 seats

L - 108.9 seats

N - 60.9 seats

B - 23.6 seats

https://blog.338canada.com/

NorthReport

CBC

L - 137 seats

C - 124 seats

B - 39 seats

N - 35 seats

G- 1 seat

P - 1 seat

I - 1 seat

 

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

NorthReport

338

L - 140

C - 124

N - 34

B - 33

G - 2

P - 1

Adds up to 334 (4 short of 338 total)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-final-338canada-projection-the-most-uncertain-federal-election-in-decades/

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

338

L - 140

C - 124

N - 34

B - 33

G - 2

P - 1

Adds up to 334 (4 short of 338 total)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/the-final-338canada-projection-the-most-uncertain-federal-election-in-decades/

Numbers here:

http://338canada.com/

 

NorthReport

Look at the contrast between Jagmeet's and Yves-Francois' demeanor compared to Justin's over the past week, and that in itself should be more than enough to tell you what's going to happen tomorrow.

NorthReport

What an absolute farce of an article!

In Vancouver Kingsway the voters could care less about Justin, Tamara or Liberals

If you drive through Vancouver Kingsway you will quickly realize Don Davies owns that riding from A-Z, as Jenny does in Vancouver East, and you wouldn't even know the Liberals had a candidate in Kingsway 

NDPers, tomorrow if you get a chance, drive through Don and/or Jenny's ridings and the signage will warm your heart!

NorthReport

Wow. Truly amazin'.

Young voters tempted to sack tainted Justin Trudeau

Canada’s under-35s have fallen out of love with their scandal-hit leader, putting him at risk in tomorrow’s election

Josh Glancy, Toronto

October 20 2019, 12:01am, The Sunday Times

RYAN REMIORZ

On Toronto University’s stately downtown campus, where students hurry across the King’s College Circle between lectures, attitudes towards a once-revered Justin Trudeau are as chilly as the autumnal afternoon.

“He seems like a nice guy, and I want to like him, but things keep surfacing in the media that aren’t great,” said Anni Zechel, a 21-year-old archaeology student. “Things like the blackface scandal keep coming — it’s obviously not a good image for him.”

 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/young-voters-tempted-to-sack-tainted-justin-trudeau-bczz705dt

https://twitter.com/nspector4?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

NorthReport

Grits and Tories Are in Statistical Tie Ahead of Canadian Election

 

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh closes the campaign with the highest approval rating and momentum score of all federal leaders.

Vancouver, BC [October 20, 2019] – A jump in voter support for the New Democratic Party (NDP) and the Bloc Québécois has affected the fortunes of Canada’s two major political parties on the eve of the country’s federal election, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative national sample, 32% of decided voters (-4 since a Research Co. survey conducted in late September) would cast a ballot for the Liberal Party’s contender in their constituency.

The Conservative Party remains a close second with 31% (-2), followed by the NDP with 19% (+4), the Green Party with 8% (-1), the Bloc with 7% (+2) and the People’s Party with 2% (=).

“In September, the Liberals enjoyed a six-point lead among female decided voters,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “Now, partly due to a surge in support for the New Democrats, the governing party is practically tied with the Conservatives.”

On a regional basis, the Conservative Party continues to dominate in Alberta (61%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%). In both Ontario and Atlantic Canada, the Liberal Party is in first place (39% and 34% respectively).

An extremely close race developed in British Columbia, with each of the three major parties garnering the support of more than a quarter of decided voters, with the Greens at 14%.

In Quebec, where the Liberals had a 14-point advantage over the Bloc in September, the election has also tightened considerably. The Liberals now stand at 34% (-3), while the Bloc has jumped to 32% (+9)

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh heads to tomorrow’s election with the highest approval rating of all leaders at 57% (up 15 points since late September).

The numbers held steady for Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer (38%, unchanged) and Green Party leader Elizabeth May (44%, also unchanged). 

The approval rating for incumbent Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau improved by three points to 44%, while his disapproval numbers dropped by the same margin to 51%. 

The lowest ranked leader is once again Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (18%, +1).

Singh is the only party leader to post a positive momentum score (+20), with almost two-in-five Canadians (38%) saying their opinion of the NDP leader has improved since the start of the campaign.

Bernier has the lowest momentum score (-25), with Trudeau at -24,  Scheer at -21 and May at -5.

When asked which one of the main party leaders would make the “Best Prime Minister”, Trudeau remains in first place with 30% (-3), followed by Scheer with 23% (-1) and Singh with 21% (+8). The other contenders are in single digits.

Trudeau holds a nine-point edge over Scheer on the “Best Prime Minister” question among men (33% to 24%) and a six-point lead among women (28% to 22%). 

Singh gets his best numbers on this question with women (26%, just two points behind Trudeau) and Canadians aged 18-to-34 (32%, eight points ahead of Trudeau).

About one-in-four Canadians (24%, +3) think the economy and jobs is the top issue facing Canada, followed by the environment (20%, -2), health care (also 20%, +2) and housing, homelessness and poverty (16%, -1).

The way Canada’s regions feel about issues did not go through any radical shifts since late September. Housing, homelessness and poverty is still most pressing concern for British Columbians (28%), while the environment is especially important for Quebecers (31%).

https://researchco.ca/2019/10/20/elxn43-canada-final-poll/

KarlL

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

According to the actual polls, as opposed to the constant Liberal gobbedlygook, there has been no indication of the NDP shifting to the Liberals. As a matter of fact it is the reverse, and the Liberals have been shifting to the NDP, from the beginning of the campaign.

I am unaware of any Liberal who has said that support has shifted from the NDP to the Liberals in this campaign.  Could you cite one in particular?

Well I do know of some NDP support that shifted to Liberals. Maybe you are not speaking to people from enough places.

Not debating the merit of the argument with you -- just saying this is a rationale some are working through.

Oh, I don't doubt that there are people whose votes have shifted from the NDP to the Liberals and vice versa.  Strategic voting will certainly be happening.  I was just challenging North Report's assertion that "Liberal gobbledygook" has been asserting NDP>Liberal switching as a phenomenon.  I don't know of any Liberal politician or pundit who has been saying "they're coming our way" as a public message.

Also, let's be clear what we are talking about.  There will be some limited number of self-identified NDPers, even some party members, who vote Liberal in certain ridings, Regina Wascana being one, I suppose.  And there will be self-identified Liberals who vote NDP in certain ridings to prevent a Conservtaive win or in support of a candidate they like, Edmonton Strathcona may be a case in point.

But the bulk of people that vote strategically can't really be considered "NDP" or "Liberal" at all, in the sense that nobody owns their votes from election to or election or points in-between.  They move between the parties as and when they see fit.  And so it should be.  

 

KarlL

Nanos apprently did an Ontario-only breakout from their Sunday poll but I don't see it anywhere online.  It would only have been 300-ish sample so with a big MOE but would be interesting to see.

NorthReport

Here is Nanos polling for BC

NDP - 28.9%

L - 27.1%

C - 25%

G - 15.5%

https://election.ctvnews.ca/polling-suggests-liberals-conservatives-in-a-deadlock-1.4647330

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