Election results

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simonvallee
Election results

Well, there was no thread discussing results, so here's one.

I'm afraid we're seeing a Conservative majority coming here. The Liberals collapsed too much in Ontario.

If we manage to avoid it, it will be with magic ballots in Toronto, but right now I'm not believing it...

What is wrong with English-Canada? You have a PM that lies, hides everything, refuses to answer qustions to the media and the public... and he is reelected massively. Expect sovereignty talks to resume in Québec.

josh

Looks like a massive Bloc and Liberal wipeout.  NDP  winning most of Quebec, but Cons winning too much of Ontario.  Looks like a Con majority.

Jacob Richter

The strategic vote call and vote-splitting accusations should go in the NDP's favour against the Liberals now.

pwr_2_da_ppl

oh damn... dark days ahead if they get a majority

thorin_bane

Yep useless strategic voting that allows the cons to go up the middle. Still don't even know how the cons haven't been voted out. This is nuts that they are doing this well. I blame FPTP

Maysie Maysie's picture

FUCK

Yell

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Cons at 166. Harper can now be a dictator with no holds barred.

Wat Tyler

Looks like the Liberal vote fled right and left.  And in Ontario, it broke against the NDP to the Cons.

According to the CBC, the Cons are at 40% overall nationally.  If they do get a majority, it will be as legitimate as it can be in FPTP.  The people (of Ontario) have spoken.

The NDP will have to work Ontario for the next election.

The Libs are at something like 30 seats nationwide.  Hard to see how they can survive.  Should the NDP absorb them?

Rob8305

And the NDP will not build on this. Being official opposition will be cold comfort. The Liberals will rebuild, recover and sweep to power again in 4-5 yeas.  The NDP's only hope was a minority where they could seize power.

Massive "fail" by Ekos calling for a weak tory minority at best.

Canada is no longer my country and is dead to me now. Bye universal health care, gay marriage, gun registry, abortion rights. Hello capital punishment.

Absolute nightmare. Canada's reign of Bush-like terror begins.

thorin_bane

We should have such a massive majority after 4 years of conservative kingship under heir harper. 200 seats for the NDP in 2015

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I'm just guessing here, but the next Quebec election should be a PQ sweep. Then the next referendum begins. Should be an easy win for the "Yes" side with Harper as a majority PM.

George Victor

thorin_bane wrote:

Yep useless strategic voting that allows the cons to go up the middle. Still don't even know how the cons haven't been voted out. This is nuts that they are doing this well. I blame FPTP

Quite the opposite.  Effective strategic voting would have avoided a Conservative run up the middle.

Vansterdam Kid

Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.

Anyhow.... I may have to move to Montreal and become a Sovereigntist. *groan*

Of course there are many more results to be counted, for instance, the Cons are leading in my riding (Vancouver-Kingsway - which is basically in central Vancouver) so I really doubt that'll hold, but still while I'm defiantly happy that the NDP seems to be making a historic breakthrough, I'm displeased that there's a good chance it's going to be in opposition to a Conservative majority.

josh

Looks like a majority of the Liberal vote in Ontario that broke off went to the Cons.

gadar

congratulations
and bend over time coming up

Jacob Two-Two

Yet another reason for the rest of Canada to hate Ontario.

simonvallee

Here's the fact:

In Québec, of 75 seats, the Conservatives are winning maybe 6 seats, 8% of the seats, around 18% of the vote

In the Rest of Canada, of 233 seats, 159 are presently going to the Cons, 68% of the seats, around 46% of the popular vote.

The distinct society reaffirms itself again. If it hadn't been for Québec, it would be a pure Conservative landslide. The Conservatives really are the party of English-Canada, no doubt about it.

OK, time to donate to the PQ... OUI, ça devient possible!

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

I like how CTV reported the soveriegnty movement as 'obliterated'

This is an English Canada government.

There's going to be alot of unrest in Quebec when this government lets loose.

Which is fine by me.

I don't want anything to do with this new Canada.

I always sympathized with the sovereignty movement....Now I find myself officially in favour of Independance.

Another referendum can't come soon enough.

Fuck you,Canada.

George Victor

Ontario's industry is collapsing, largely due to the Tar-patch inspired petro-dollar.

Steve rides in saying he can save the remnant.

A frightened populace - and a lot of newcomers caught up in the politics of ethnicity - are vulnerable to machine politics. Immigration policy dominant in Toronto.

But don't worry about Quebec.  That is a more political populace...and social democratic. As for "English Canada"... Atlantic Canada or the West? There is a different story in each.

Ciabatta2

Strangely, effective strategic voting wouldn't have made much of a difference - lots of ONtario conservatives winning by more than NDP-Liberal votes combines.

Rob8305 wrote:

And the NDP will not build on this. Being official opposition will be cold comfort. The Liberals will rebuild, recover and sweep to power again in 4-5 yeas.  The NDP's only hope was a minority where they could seize power.

Bingo.  The Liberals will recover.  This might really kill the NDP, strangely.  The caucus conflict between the existing members and the newbies - particularly the Québec newbies - is gonna be huge.

The only good result for the NDP was a minority.

This will result in a near wipeout of the NDP next time around.  Next election - the NDP will lose many gains in Ontario and Québec, particularly the weaker candidates who have come in on the slide.  Short-lived euphoria for short and long term pain

Jeez

 

N.Beltov N.Beltov's picture

simon, interesting about the results in Quebec. What further proof (is needed) that right wing politics is inherently divisive?

George Victor

Grow up, Alan

George Victor

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Yet another reason for the rest of Canada to hate Ontario.

Let's see...a province of growing unemployment and it's time to hate it. 

josh

NDP has won at least six seats from the Liberals in Toronto.  Iggy and Duceppe are losing.  Rae is slightly ahead.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

An NDP surge gave us a Harper majority. I'm going to remember that, and Quebec will, too.

al-Qa'bong

George Victor wrote:

Grow up, Alan

 

Et voila, another reason to hate Ontario.

josh

Boom Boom wrote:

An NDP surge gave us a Harper majority. I'm going to remember that, and Quebec will, too.

Huh?  It was a Liberal collapse in Ontario that did.

Vansterdam Kid

Ciabatta2 wrote:

And the NDP will not build on this. Being official opposition will be cold comfort. The Liberals will rebuild, recover and sweep to power again in 4-5 yeas.  The NDP's only hope was a minority where they could seize power.

Bingo.  The Liberals will recover.  This might really kill the NDP, strangely.  The caucus conflict between the existing members and the newbies - particularly the Québec newbies - is gonna be huge.

The only good result for the NDP was a minority.

This will result in a near wipeout of the NDP next time around. Next election - the NDP will lose many gains in Ontario and Québec, particularly the weaker candidates who have come in on the slide. Short-lived euphoria for short and long term pain

Jeez

Very unastuate. For starters Ontario basically swung strongly to the Cons, so Jacob is right, another reason to hate Ontario. Second, how could you know what will happen next time, there aren't any 'weak' surprise candidates elected in Ontario, because there was no wave in Ontario. Third there's plenty of time between now and next time for things to change, such as the economy, scandals, etc. Fourth, the best result would've been one of the polls showing the NDP only down by two or tied, with that being an undercount of the NDP vote - leading the NDP to win a minority, not the Conservatives.

Which reminds me, now that the NDP is the official opposition it's obvious they're going to be the target of the Conservative slim machine. I hope they're able to amp up their fundraising results and respond accordingly.

Wat Tyler

josh wrote:

Boom Boom wrote:

An NDP surge gave us a Harper majority. I'm going to remember that, and Quebec will, too.

Huh?  It was a Liberal collapse in Ontario that did.

Right-wing Liberals in Ontario gave us a Harper majority.

 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Hey,George...The 2 words I just directed at Canada are directed at you too.

Whatever...You don't like it?..Tough...Get used to it because you're going to hear alot more of it in the upcoming 5 years.

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

I really really don't want to see more prisons built and more money wasted on pointless weaponry. Really. I am very happy for the historic NDP gains... the Gliberals really didn't hold up their end very well, did they? The showing of the BQ is yet again proof of the need for PR, the comments about them being made extinct or obliterated is frankly disgusting. I am not looking forward to the next five years (and considering how Harper ignored his early promises about calling elections on something similar to a fixed basis, I can't see him not milking his current win for anything less than the maximum). How did Maysie put it, oh yeah FUCK.

Sven Sven's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

An NDP surge gave us a Harper majority. I'm going to remember that, and Quebec will, too.

How so, Boom Boom?

Jacob Two-Two

George Victor wrote:

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

Yet another reason for the rest of Canada to hate Ontario.

Let's see...a province of growing unemployment and it's time to hate it. 

 

I didn't say I hated Ontario. I'm saying this will add to the resentment that naturally exists.

melovesproles

It looks to me like the NDP is the only thing that presented any obstacle to an even stronger Harper sweep. Quebec tried to give Canada another option but Ontario said 'no' and gave Harper a blank cheque.

josh

Wat Tyler wrote:

Right-wing Liberals in Ontario gave us a Harper majority.

 

Bingo.

Vansterdam Kid

Boom Boom wrote:

An NDP surge gave us a Harper majority. I'm going to remember that, and Quebec will, too.

Huh? NDP won your riding dude. Going by your illogical reasoning, you should blame yourself because if Quebec didn't start to support the NDP other places wouldn't have jumped on board. Of course that makes no sense either, but yeah, I realize you're annoyed, but then again most of us are so maybe you should sit down, take a Valium and process this a bit.

Paulitical Junkie

Damn, this really sucks. That's about all I can say right now. I feel like crawling under covers and completely tuning out the remainder of the election coverage. I certainly have no intention of watching Harper speak. So depressing.

josh

melovesproles wrote:
It looks to me like the NDP is the only thing that presented any obstacle to an even stronger Harper sweep. Quebec tried to give Canada another option but Ontario said 'no' and gave Harper a blank cheque.

Some of these NDP margins in Quebec ridings are mindboggling.

sanizadeh

Rob8305 wrote:

Canada is no longer my country and is dead to me now. Bye universal health care, gay marriage, gun registry, abortion rights. Hello capital punishment.

Not gonna happen even under a majority CPC government. Most of these rights were achieved through court system and not the parliament. And dont forget that with an Ignatieff-led LPC in the past couple of years stamping every CPC move, we have already been living under a CPC majority government.

Even Bush was followed by Obama (not that it made a substantial change, but a loss for neoconservatives nevertheless). Same will happen here too.

One thing though, this election will likely get Liberals behind proporotional representation too :)

Jacob Richter

bagkitty wrote:
I am not looking forward to the next five years (and considering how Harper ignored his early promises about calling elections on something similar to a fixed basis, I can't see him not milking his current win for anything less than the maximum). How did Maysie put it, oh yeah FUCK.

 

It's the law.  He'll only scrap it if his party is losing, and that would exacerbate such a loss.

simonvallee

josh wrote:

Boom Boom wrote:

An NDP surge gave us a Harper majority. I'm going to remember that, and Quebec will, too.

Huh?  It was a Liberal collapse in Ontario that did.

 

Don't blame Ontario... here are the provinces that voted even more for the Conservatives than Ontario:

BC

Alberta

Saskatchewan

Manitoba

 

That leaves only the Atlantic provinces that rejected the Conservatives. West of the Ottawa River, Conservatives reign supreme.

josh

I would think that what's left of Liberals will now turn to Trudeau.  Doubt they would want to unite, but who knows?

KenS

Sky falls.

Goes boom.

Jacob Two-Two

Yes, but those provinces are always Conservative. Ontario swung to the Cons rather than support the NDP.

Unionist

George Victor wrote:

thorin_bane wrote:

Yep useless strategic voting that allows the cons to go up the middle. Still don't even know how the cons haven't been voted out. This is nuts that they are doing this well. I blame FPTP

Quite the opposite.  Effective strategic voting would have avoided a Conservative run up the middle.

Exactly.

 

Paulitical Junkie

One last thought for now- is it time to unite the left and form one party? The NDP would have the upper hand in negotiations.

Wat Tyler

josh wrote:

I would think that what's left of Liberals will now turn to Trudeau.  Doubt they would want to unite, but who knows?

Maybe Trudeau will be the statesman who leads them into the NDP.  Then 10-15 years later he could conceivably be leader and PM.

Ciabatta2

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

Ciabatta2 wrote:

And the NDP will not build on this. Being official opposition will be cold comfort. The Liberals will rebuild, recover and sweep to power again in 4-5 yeas.  The NDP's only hope was a minority where they could seize power.

Bingo.  The Liberals will recover.  This might really kill the NDP, strangely.  The caucus conflict between the existing members and the newbies - particularly the Québec newbies - is gonna be huge.

The only good result for the NDP was a minority.

This will result in a near wipeout of the NDP next time around. Next election - the NDP will lose many gains in Ontario and Québec, particularly the weaker candidates who have come in on the slide. Short-lived euphoria for short and long term pain

Jeez

Very unastuate. For starters Ontario basically swung strongly to the Cons, so Jacob is right, another reason to hate Ontario. Second, how could you know what will happen next time, there aren't any 'weak' surprise candidates elected in Ontario, because there was no wave in Ontario. Third there's plenty of time between now and next time for things to change, such as the economy, scandals, etc. Fourth, the best result would've been one of the polls showing the NDP only down by two or tied, with that being an undercount of the NDP vote - leading the NDP to win a minority, not the Conservatives.

Which reminds me, now that the NDP is the official opposition it's obvious they're going to be the target of the Conservative slim machine. I hope they're able to amp up their fundraising results and respond accordingly.

Never said there was a wave in Ontario.  Just (as of time of typing) six new seats.  Three in the old city of Toronto (Parkdale, Davenport, Beaches), two in Scarborough and one in semi-suburban Toronto (YSW) - the latter three likely hard to hang on to.  

But the problem is this -

For ages, we've been told a vote for anyone other than the Liberals would result in electing Conservatives.

For the first time, people voted en masse for the NDP.

And the result is a Conservative majority.  

The problem here is the narrative circle has been completed, and proven true.

So they were right - of course, for the wrong reasons (we know it ain't the NDP vote that's resulting in newly elected Cons) - but the 'wrong reasons' well no one will care about.  NDP swing equalled a Harper majority.

That's going to be hard to overcome