Election talk (15)

It is very important to stay om message and not get sidetracted by the attacks on the NDP, and probably the best way of doing that is listen to what Jack is saying at the rallies because we don't seem to be getting many talking points from Head Office. You can check the NDP.ca website, and watch and listen to Layton at his rallies on CPAC, and CTV has reasonably good coverage as well, at least compared to the CBC.

Today Layton is attacking subsidies and tax breaks to large oil companies and banks who do not need any finacial assistance as they are extremely profitable as it is. So use what Jack says as your cue.

Short answer- money is going to be the least of the Liberals problems.

And I dont just mean that the other problems are so bad.

Its not true that their supporters will bail them out. Yes, the Liberals can always get a lot of bodies to a rally. But thats it, for 10 years their ability to raise money and run campaigns has been eroding. All they can do is get those loyal bodies to the rally.

But the LPC has little debt. While their fundraising is weak, they are in our league on that score. Their big issue is the bloated administration that the brain trust[s] have unable to force change and cuts against the resistnace of the grassroots. That dead end discussion has just been 'resolved'. The LPC organization will have to be rebuilt entirely- way too big and way too stupid. That isnt going to be easy- but the size of the new organization will simply be matching the revenue.

Thanks for doing that.

I found the post on a 'loose window'. My connection is so mindnumbingly slow that I probably re-posted it several minutes before you did.

Layton is on CPAC right now up in the Territories getting thoroughly grilled by the media - he's handling it well but it is very intense.

If there is any way to get those candidates back in their ridings it would be helpful.  And apparently the candidate is bilingual. Liberals feed the media a lot of lies.

Another useful line re: the one candidate would be something to the effect of:

• So, if a 30-something single mother who works in the service industry and has no desire to be a career politician "accidentally" becomes a Member of Parliament, why exactly is that so bad? 

The shadow candidates that all parties run is not a big secret for many Canadians.  Good on Jack to throw the names of the Liberal place holders back in Iggy's face.  I loved the tag line on the Globe piece.  On March 31 I would have bet a million dollars I wouldn't be quoting the Globe coverage in the last week.

Harper is now warning that NDP will harm relationship with the US.  That will sure explain why he appointed Gary Doer to be our US Ambassador.

Exactly. We won't even have to change ambassadors. Everything will be fine.

Wakie, wakie Tim, you're a little late coming to the party.

Tim Harper: Winds of change buffet Harper

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982316--tim-harper-w...

I know a version of this thread is still active, but I think it might be a good time to revisit NorthReport's preposterous prediction (made in November of last year!) that The Layton-led NDP will become the Official Opposition after the next election. Incredibly, it appears that NR simply was not ambitious enough. NR also ludicrously suggested that the NDP's breakthrough would come in Québec; and, as if that wasn't enough, NR mused that it wouldn't be long before Michael Harris lost his job at the Sun!

Surely this is an example of stopped-clock syndrome, isn't it? Or does babble really have its own electoral Nostradamus?

Damn it Catchfire, what I meant to say was the NDP was going to win the most number of seats in this election, and it would be Prime-Minister elect Jack Layton late on Monday nite. 

PS That is assuming Harper was not lying again when he said that the party which wins the most number of seats gets to govern.

Tory strategist says he advised Sun Media, and worked for political war room

http://www.brandonsun.com/national/breaking-news/tory-strategist-says-he...

Here is a Wikileaks cable about how the NDP will never govern from 2008

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/28/cv-elec...

ROB ANDERS SPEAKS!.... or is that he whines? Some of us were beginning to think he not only had the graveyard vote, but was part of it himself.

That Muttart/Peladeau thing is just weird. 

Dunno if this has already been posted - if so pardon me - but I had to share this, oddly also from the CBC, and surprisingly sympathetic:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/27/cv-elec...

This looks promising:

He's back.

For the second time this election campaign, NDP Leader Jack Layton will make an appearance in the Tournament Capital.

On Friday, April 29, at 9:30 a.m., Layton will take part in a rally outside NDP candidate Michael Crawford's campaign office at 542 Tranquille Rd. in North Kamloops.

The event is open to the public.

Layton's second appearance appears to be a sign the party believes it has a good chance of winning the Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo riding.

http://www.bclocalnews.com/bc_thompson_nicola/kamloopsthisweek/news/1209...

If Warren Kinsella says B-EY is solid then I expect it could be the first riding to fall on election night

P.S. It would make sense too. B-EY votes NDP provincially but Davenport doesn't.

I live in a safe NDP seat. Tomorrow I am heading out of town to work in some ridings where the vote splits are hard to predict and a solid ground effort could make the difference.

I hope that others around the country are doing similar things.  There are many ridings that are close but under-resourced where a few extra bodies with energy and commitment could be a big help.

My connection to the ridings I'll be working in is family. I haven't heard of any organized effort to get people into ridings where they need help. If those kinds of things are happening, great.  If not, they should be. If anybody has those kind of connections, now would be a good time to put a bug in somebody's ear.

The progressive community has little cash, but a large network. Aside from talking a lot about policy arcana, doing a lot with a little is probably our strongest collective talent.  Now would be a really great time to bring those two things to bear.

Why not set squirrels on ghoris? Kill two birds with one stone, there

Four things we've learned about Stephen Harper

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/four-things-weve-learned-ab...

And a real dark horse in that end of town is the next riding over, Scarborough Southwest--esp. given the Tamil Tiger controversy over the Conservative candidate, and Dan Harris running again.

As for EPP, I erred on the side of Silva Liberal in my entry--back in 2009; remember, the page has been up that long (and the Bryantgate ref definitely dates it)--but "with allowance".

More *historical* dark horse cred, i.e. not just federally w/John Harney, but even more so provincially w/Stephen Lewis and Richard Johnston.  And Dan Harris has a pair of millimetre-behind-CPC 20%+ finishes ('04, '06) under his belt.

S-RR, though, is a dark horse of a different feather, and the kind which'd been wildly inconceivable before the present surge--helps that it's an open seat, too.  Watch this one flabbergast the pundits.  (When driving through a couple of pre-surge weeks ago, I was already surprised by the NDP yard-sign action there--wonder what it's like now...)

A horse with feathers? A strange beast, indeed.

Northreport - do you speak in tongues too?

Yes, otherwise why do you think the NDP is proposing it?

Well how many parties have as a priority eliminating poverty and creating decent training and jobs?

-----------------------------------------------------

It is a lot worse for the Liberals than most people realize. What are they looking at now 35-40 seats max? What happened to Michael Byers - why didn't he run again in V-Centre?

Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals are spending the final three days of their campaign entrenched in Ontario, mostly in and around the GTA, trying to salvage the seats they already hold and trying to win back ridings they lost in close races in 2008.

The story is similar in other regions. In Atlantic Canada, some Liberal volunteers are abandoning attempts to make inroads into ridings held by NDP incumbents and are trying to rescue their own, for example, Mike Savage in Dartmouth, who is running against a tough NDP opponent, and Brian Murphy in Moncton, who is facing a challenge from the Conservatives.

On the West Coast, some grassroots Liberals in Richmond say they are giving up on trying to unseat Conservative Alice Wong and are going to downtown Vancouver to help Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry.

"In a way, it's a crapshoot that is unprecedented in modern times," said Liberal Senator David Smith, a national co-chair of the campaign. "This thing is going to be fought on a riding-by-riding level ... because at this stage it's riding by riding."

Polling is showing a new low for Liberals: finishing third, behind the NDP, for the first time in the party's history

While Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton will travel to British Columbia, Mr. Ignatieff's team has deemed going out to that coast too far. It's more important for the leader to be in Ontario, where he will continue to focus mostly on Conservative ridings that his team considers vulnerable.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-scramble-to-save-o...

@takeitslowly:

The key part of the proposal is the condition it create jobs in Canada that stay here. I have read many such proposals from people like Jim Stafford, and Armin Yalnizyan of the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives, among others, have advanced these ideas in various similar formats. While it isn't a solution on its own, it should target money towards the kind of real small business companies that create and then offer meaningful employment.

I am not an economist, but have read a great deal on this. This is a good proposal, as it doesn't throw money towards large corporations who generally keep this money to pad profits, and pay out higher amounts of employee compensation, and larger dividends to stock holders.

If there are any professional economists or economics professors lurking around here, now would be a great time to give us some more insight into this.

I'll add another dark horse to the mix: Bramalea-Gore-Malton

In a brief CP piece on the G&M site, Alan Gregg discusses the NDP surge in quite dramatic terms, the unprecedented engagement of the electorate and the desperate LPC & CPC response to it. Among other things he makes the critical point that the tried and true strategy of demonizing the NDP no longer works because "the NDP isn't scary anymore". He characterizes a NDP official opposition of over 100 seat as quite conceivable. This is a conservative pollster talking...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/video/video-polls-show-ndp-gaining-o...

North Report I thought we agreed that there will be the highest number of close races. It is too early to say Liberals will have 35-40 seats max. They are polling between 21-23 now and could in fact increase slightly. They also have advantages of a large number of incumbents. If the NDP polled 21-23 we would expect about 50 seats. I can see the Liberals get anywhere between 25 and 70 seats. I can't see how you can say their upper limit is 40.

Let's do the math on the Liberals chances:

West 2-10 There are currently several seats that were 2-way races between the Cons and Liberals-- with them now 3-way races the Liberals might squeak through in some cases. They also have chances in Manitoba of saving a couple seats and Wascana.

Ontario 15-40 There are a pile of ridings where the NDP was almost in the single digits. Even if the NDP makes those 3-way races -- the Liberals are going to win some. The Cons are not that strong. If they go down to 15-- we are looking at a massive Con Majority.

Quebec 1-5 With the BQ this week and the real chance of 4-way races in Quebec you have to assume the Liberals or any of the 4 parties could win in some places.

Atlantic Canada 7-15 The Liberals depending on the splits could get as many as 15 including possible sweeping the 4 PEI seats.

That is a range of 25-70 and they could still keep Yukon.

The NDP's range is just as great probably between 50 and 100 seats.

The BQ could do anywhere between 15 and 30 seats (they could lose a pile but also take from both the cons and Liberals.

The Cons could do anywhere between 100 and 165 but likely will sit at the low end of that.

We have the highest number of undecided seats that could go anywhere on Monday.

We have a full 3 days of red scare tactics with full court media press to go through before voting begins.

BC could make a huge the difference this election, so a huge rally is imparitive to create momentum right before election day.

JACK’S BACK!

Join Jack Layton and your BC New Democrat team for one final, massive rally this Saturday.

Date: Saturday, April 30
Time: 12:30pm
Location: First Avenue Film Studio
4088 1st Ave, Burnaby BC.
Southwest Corner of First Ave. and Gilmore Ave.

Closest Skytrain is Gilmore Skytrain Station

Event Date and Time
Saturday, April 30 - 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm

Event Location
First Avenue Film Studio 4088 1st Ave, Burnaby BC. Southwest Corner of First Ave. and Gilmore Ave.

Transit directions:
From Gilmore Skytrain station, walk 500m NORTH along Gilmore Avenue.
The rally is next to Gilmore Skytrain Station so it's easy to get to.
Gilmore Station is on the Millennium Line.
(While travelling to the event via Skytrain people can contemplate how an NDP government could improve public transit)

And the money is rolling in, too. New figures show the party has raked in more than $2.5-million in donations since the writ was dropped March 26, topping the $2.1-million raised during the 2008 campaign. Donations are also up in Ontario and in Alberta.

The party raised $100,000 in online donations on just one day, Tuesday, this week.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/challenge-for-the-ndp-getti...

those polls all cover the same period (e.g. same days) so it's a good thing they all show the NDP at the same strength. More tellingly though, the ones that run a few days later have the NDP higher...when voters see how close Layton is to Harper (e.g. today and yesterday), will that give the numbers a boost (not registered by the polls until Sunday, if at all)? I think so.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982356--exclusive-ma...

Toronto Star just released a front page exclusive claiming Tory insiders have confided that a majority is now out of reach. This is actually great news for the NDP campaign, as the focus of the campaign can be shifted towards whether Harper's minority can survive.

While the surge does seem to have plateaued over the past three days, we should also note the significant movement on the leadership numbers, with Jack passing Harper in NANOS, Harris-Decima and a coouple of others.  As Nanon has noted (and as we saw earlier in the campaign), a boost in leadership numbers often prefigures a comparable boost in voter choice of parties.

The surge has plateaued.  It may not be over.

If you want to know the real reason why Quebeckers are voting for the NDP this time, why not let them speak for themselves?

Globe comes out for Harper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/the-globes-election-endorsement-facing-up-to-our-challenges/article2001610/

 I'm so old I can remember the'72 election, when the Star and Globe switched roles, with the Globe endorsing Trudeau's Liberals and the liberal Star going for Stanfield and the Conservatives

 but usually the Globe is Red Tory on its editorial board; if there had been a convincing Liberal Party they made have switched

sorry, I changed the above to 1972 election :

age plays tricks on your memory

that was all the more shocking since Trudeaumania '68 had worn off so quickly for the Star and others (War Measures Act, inflation, arrogance etc.)

there was a famous Macpherson cartoon in the Star of the Globe and Star as whipping boys, but each switching from their usual targets...

 and

 re the Red Tory Globe, yes, it is: that is what opened the breach on its Right 10 years ago for the National Post, which could not stand Globe's tolerance of the mixed economy, some socially progressive initiatives etc.

 and re Mulroney, remember, around here he is All Bad, but he nominated Stephen Lewis to the UN, and for me was exactly right with the Meech negotiations, denounced by his whole right side(and Trudeau), and despite many denunciations introduced pretty much the same value-added tax/GST that every social democrat in Europe has enacted and many US liberals today want enacted

so, of his Big Three -- Meech, GST, free trade -- I go full-in for 2 of them

btw, would have liked to post that 1972 editorial caricature by Duncan Macpherson, but obviously they are very wary about reprints, rights, etc., so I found nothing to post;

anyone else work some magic for that '72 cartoon?

Looks like it's true, some BQ affiliates have written letters to their newspapers encouraging BQ voters to cast their ballot for the NDP.

Robert Fife: Conservatives are also apparently making an ad buy in Ontario to target the NDP and Liberals. Ad buy in Ontario to focus on cost of NDP platform and ask "business" Liberals to vote for the Conservatives to stop the NDP. Ad buy in BC to focus on an NDP coalition with the BQ and Liberals.

Sounds like a last minute effort from the Tories to save their government. As we hit Friday, the aftermath of the royal wedding, and now the weekend, the media coverage is going to go down. The NDP seems to be focussing its efforts today and tomorrow in BC where the party has a serious ground game. 

On election day, Layton is in Toronto.

NDP should run ads on how the NDP budget makes sense is costed, is Canadians priorities-- even if they don't want to go neg on Con plan should not let it be out there that the NDP plan is a weakness

Could also have run one on the NDP team -- one of strength..

You don't have to respond to attacks by going negative

If they are like protest marches you take the MSM number and the organizer's number and usually the reality is close to double the MSM number and just under the organizers inflation.

Others have already done mea culpas for having scoffed at North Report's boosterism. I did not say out loud what I thought of that silly prediction of 80 seats and the endeless threads about being the Official Opposition.

I cant imagine a mea culpa I am happier to make. And it is more than just having scoffed at NR. I was having a hard time finding when I could come to Michigan. There was a window that included E-day and the week after. Not being here for a boring and predictable election was not a tough choice. We all need to do our part even when it isnt inspiring. Bt something had to give, and I barely even thought about the choice.

I will do pennance by working the phones in Central Nova- see if we can knock off Peter McKay. If they are not set up for me to long distance pull the vote, maybe I'll do Oshawa.

To say nothing of the number of fainting Liberals, those without NDP signs on their lawn or in their window.

Yeah, that's what scares me about that article; it might still be a ploy to push down some of the NDP surge by making some of the anti-Harper crowd feel like they don't have to vote or can safely go back to the Liberals.

Does anyone know what are Jon Pammet's of Carleton U's politics?

Does anyone know:

1. If there are any Layton rallies in Toronto before the end of the campaign?

2. Where is Layton's party on Monday night?

Here's what I found on the Toronto Star's Pages of the Past for Friday, October 20, 1972:

By the way, May 2 is the 44th anniversary of the Toronto Maple Leafs last Stanley Cup win.  Here's what the front page of the Toronto Star looked like the next day:

I wonder how that whole Rich Little bodyguard thing worked out.

The NDP has lapsed too much into a Seinfeld campaign and, despite the large rally turnouts, it is time to retake the initiative and kept fighting to the finish for the frame on that final ballot question.

I think you are wrong KenS. There IS a chance the Liberals would go in to a coalition with the NDP and it is pointless denying it. There is also a chance the Liberals would go in to a coalition with the Conservatives. This is why the seat count on May 3rd matters.

i don't know if otherS saw this 5 MINUTES AGO

Don Newman on his show POWER PANEL just basically endorsed JACK LAYTON on CTV

ON HIS LAST WORD!

I AM NOW HALLUCINATING!

I've seen both the calgary sun and calgary herald have endorsements (or partial endorsements) for layton as well.  Never seen the Sun (uses red colours) have a mostly orange front page before.  Don't under-estimate the NDP's draw for conservative voters.

I think the story out about Canada being investigated for war crimes is huge, especially with Harper talking about how Layton would tank the country.  Not sure how to do it in a way that isn't an attack.

I think the easiest thing is just to do/say (largely) nothing and get out the vote. So...perhaps the NDP is doing the right thing and showing some political maturity in the process.

They have to keep the energy going, though. So, babblers to the barricades!

Exactly. And donate, too. I just gave a donation to Mike Sullivan. Every penny helps!

Proxies, ladies and gentlemen.  Proxies.

Does anybody have a link to the data that shows NDP governments are historically the most fiscally responsible? I've got some Con friends I need to show it to.

Thanks in advance if you do.

http://www.progressive-economics.ca/2011/04/29/fiscal-record-of-canadian...

This was actually a top tweet on Twitter today. Great to see people do not take much stock in lazy partisan attacks.