By-elections this fall Part 2
continued from here
Comments
Yeah, I really like the fact that they are promoting a contest between NWC and CCMV phone banks as a coast vs. coast thing. Its nice to have ways of making people working on campaigns at opposite endes of the country feel like they are part of something together. I think this kind of thing shoudl be encouraged.
Spent about 1 1/2 hours traversing NWC yesterday to get a sense of what's going on... from Port Moody, Coquitlam, and New West - within the boundaries of NWC - every corner of the riding - every major cross street and also looked down every side street. My first impression - Is there really a by-election going on?
NWC is literally devoid of lawn signage along 90% of the roads that I travelled and looked down. With the exception of some small pockets in West Coquitlam (and even they were sparse with Fin, Lib, and Con signs), the riding overall is devoid of lawn signs. Certainly nothing akin to a federal election.
Just based upon those observations, I'd wager that turnout for NWC will be 25% - 30%. And it appears as if GOTV will be critical.
Same basic observation about CCMV, which I have recounted in the thread on that by-election.
AS has been said many a time - SIGNS DON'T VOTE! for all we know people living in NWC could be getting tons of doorknocks and phone calls and there culd be high interest in the campaign - but maybe the candidates are not putting such a big emphasis on the sign war.
Centrist, that's a lot of driving around, and on Halloween of all days.
I hope you got lots of candy.
Personally, I've only heard from Conservatives so far.
My earlier prediction needs to be changed as I'm less convinced of Liberal growth:
NDP 40
Con 32
Lib 21
Grn 07
BTW the Greens have signs with the candidates face on them. None of the other parties do. I was reading the Greens candidate's bio. She runs some sort of consulting business, but I can't figure out what she does for the most part other than link businesses with technology service providers. Any business owner with half a brain could do this themselves. I wonder if she really makes much money at it. What a scam, if she does. So typical of our BS economy these days.
The NDP scored a major hit on the front page of La Presse today!
They are attacking Paille as a rightwing pawn of Harper's who has spearheaded privatization schemes etc... and the NDP is preparing to plaster Hochelaga with posters of a giant cheque with a Tory logo made out to Paille!!
Check out www.blocageintermittent.ca
Well, my hats off to the NDP campaign for this muscular, well-executed, strategic move in Hochelaga! They have given themselves without a doubt the very best chance they could have to win this one. I'm not saying they will, but at this stage I'm not saying they won't either.
The website identifies Paillé as:
* having opposed a daycare centre on his street, saying it would threaten his quality of life
* advocating the privatization of the SAQ (Societé des Alcools du Québec, for those who don't know)
* locking out workers from the Journal de Montréal when he was VP of Quebecor
* presiding over a slide in the value of the portfolio of the Société Générales du Financement du Québec, going from an 8% gain to a 4% loss
* counselling Stephen Harper, for a contract value of $750,000
* etc ...
It says Paillé wants to represent a riding he neither lives in nor understands. The name of the website is taken from a street sign in a photo posted to Twitpic a few weeks ago, which said "Blocage Intermittent" over which the Bloc had posted one of their elections signs showing Duceppe and Paillé.
Its release was time to coincide with: the denouement after the municipal elections, and maybe to catch a bit of the Projet Montréal third-way wave, a news story this morning in La Presse (that was carried most of the day on NationalNewswatch.com), and to (well, let's not say "upstage", but maybe) set another agenda for Gilles Duceppe's news conference this morning with Paillé about the Port of Montréal, plus a whole bunch of street posters based on ... wait for it, it's brilliant ... a big blue cheque with a Conservative logo in the top left-hand corner, made out to Paillé and signed by Stephen Harper. Apparently there are associated flyers as well.
And then the site has an orange link saying "Vous cherchez une alternative?" which of course takes you to Jean-Claude Rocheleau's site which now features a big picture of him and Jack, saying "Quelqu'un de chez nous" (roughly, "someone who's one of us").
It's E-6, giving the already-demoralized Bloc troops very little time to respond, and designed to keep up the momentum of the steady stream of french-speaking Caucus members who have been trekking down there to lend Jean-Claude a hand.
I am sending my very best karma east-ward (having already sent some cash), and I encourage everyone else to do the same.
Well done, you guys!
The rest of his "bio" reads:
Daniel Paillé - The parachute candidate
objective: get myself elected at any price in a riding I neither know or live in
employment:
-snip-
* caused the loss of 116 million dollars to Québec and the bankruptcy of 3500 businesses under the "Plan Paillé"
* Director of the general department for privatisation of crown corps and in favour of the privatisation of SAQ
The website also includes a link to the 2007 report Paillé prepared for Public Works Canada addressed to Québec Conservative Senator and unelected Minister Michael Fortier.
Btw, why are Duceppe and Paillé doing a press release at the Port of Montréal? That would be one of the last places on my list of where to do a photo-op after a mayoral campaign ruined by allegations of organised crime.
Here are some photo albums of the attack materials: one and two
I gotta say, some of the criticisms seem like real cheap shots, but if it gets J-C elected or at least gets the message across that Paillé is a conservative - so be it.
I noticed the NDP didn't use the real Conservative Party logo or Harper signature or any Canadian Government logos for their signs. :)
* having opposed a daycare centre on his street, saying it would threaten his quality of life
* advocating the privatization of the SAQ (Societé des Alcools du Québec, for those who don't know)
* locking out workers from the Journal de Montréal when he was VP of Quebecor
* presiding over a slide in the value of the portfolio of the Société Générales du Financement du Québec, going from an 8% gain to a 4% loss
* counselling Stephen Harper, for a contract value of $750,000
* etc ...
It says Paillé wants to represent a riding he neither lives in nor understands. The name of the website is taken from a street sign in a photo posted to Twitpic a few weeks ago, which said "Blocage Intermittent" over which the Bloc had posted one of their elections signs showing Duceppe and Paillé. . . plus a whole bunch of street posters based on ... wait for it, it's brilliant ... a big blue cheque with a Conservative logo in the top left-hand corner, made out to Paillé and signed by Stephen Harper. Apparently there are associated flyers as well.
Brilliant, indeed.
Indeed La Presse says there are about a hundred of them, and calls this a major stroke against the Bloc.
Can someone francophone give us the overtones of "Quelqu'un de chez nous?" Someone who's one of us, yes, but also "someone who's at home here" I think (lives here, unlike the parachutist). Anything else? I suspect it's one of those wonderful Quebecois slogans which carries a double or triple punch and is almost untranslatable?
I would actually object to the "quelqu'un de chez nous" line if Paille were a a non-francophone. But since both Paille and Rocheleau are pur laine Quebecois - I think we can rest assured that the line only refers to geography.
My prediction for CCMV:
Conservatives, 41%
NDP, 29%
Liberals, 21%
Christian Heritage and Greens, 4% each
And for New Westminster-Coquitlam:
NDP, 41%
Conservatives, 35%
Liberals, 17%
Greens, 7%
Smart money would hold off on predictions and base them on the H1N1 lineups in each riding. I would not attach any weight to polls from more than 24 hours ago with the auditor general's report out today and the increasing realization that the Cons have botched the H1N1 rollout. Remembering that byelections are a way to show displeasure at a government now people have a reason to show that. Depending on what else happens this week I would wait till the weekend to predict where the Cons might land-- As far as the NS riding I would not call that for the Cons for now.
Thanks to all of you who have been following our campaign in Hochelaga.
We appreciate the positive feedback.
Now, if you'd really like to see us take this one over the top, feel free to make a donation here:
https://secure.ndp.ca/riding/index.php?riding=24021&language=e
Merci!
Read this article about the "missing in action" Tory candidate in NWC. She sounds like a brain dead zombie with nothing to say who is trying to avoid any contact with any real people or with the media.
Well, as with physics, so in politics: each action has a roughly equal and decidedly opposite reaction. And the Hochelaga by-election is no different.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/spector-vision/bloc-guns-for-ndp/ar...
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...
The Bloc wasted no time responding to the NDP's attacks with one of their own: this time with a rather stark poster trying to tie the NDP to the Conservatives over the long gun registry vote.
Now, the NDP would have to be naïve not to have believed that (a) there was going to be a reaction, and (b) that it was going to revolve around the long gun registry vote. So let's assume they have some kind of contingency plan ready, and wait to see what that is.
There is an All Candidates' debate scheduled for one of the radio stations today, but I'm not going to get a chance to follow it unfortunately. Still, I'd guess we'll be getting an idea about how the rest of the campaign is going to unfold from the debate there.
When you think about things though, it's nothing short of remarkable that the Bloc, which won the seat with some 50% of the vote last time, would feel the need to attack the party that came third. It's also indicative, as Norman Spector points out, of just "how far the fortunes of Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals have fallen in the past several months, even before the Coderre crash-up".
I'll be curious to see what happens. I guess the NDP should feel flattered that the BQ feels the need to go on the attack in what ought to be just about the safest BQ seat in Quebec and it also speaks volumes that the NDP and the BQ are each attacking the other for being somehow linked to the Tories - while the Liberals are completely out of it. I would also be curious as to how many voters in Hochelaga actually see registering long guns as being all that important an issue to them (its one thing to have an opinion on something, its another thing to care that much about it).
I'm waiting for the next shoe to drop and for the BQ to "accuse" the NDP of supporting multiculturalism and not taking a hard enough line against any "reasonable accommodations" of minorities.
The BQ has no excuse for attacking the NPD other than desperation. That riding has been BQ since the party was founded. The lowest result the BQ has ever garnered in that riding is 46%! Most of the riding voted yes in the 1995 referendum! Is this Duceppe's Outremont?
The BQ has truly lost their way if they think that some cover tactic attack politics is the way to distract the blue collar people of Hochelaga from what has been a giant swindle. Parachuting in a right-wing, big business conservative that has done nothing to earn the loyalty or the vote of the people of that riding merits the BQ losing that seat. Liberals and Conservative voters should consider voting NPD if they want to see the BQ defeated.
<edited to remove the wrong e-day, thanks OO>
Can anyone in Montreal give any insight as to how the by-election race is being perceived in the media and among the public? (to the extent anyone is paying any attention at all) Is Hochelaga viewed as a two-horse NDP-Bloc race?
I find it amusing that the candidates are trying to attack one another by trying to tie one another to the Tories. I guess that's a sign of how unpopular the Tories are in Montreal.
Monday actually.
DTA: Sorry, that was in response to V.Jara's comment that voting day is Sunday. The municipals were on Sunday last week. Voting day in the federal byelections is on Monday, although if Steven Fletcher's new bill passed (I don't think it did yet) there would ahve been advance polls on the Sunday.
I have always felt we should have our elections on weekends (like many municipalities do). I know in some countries election day is a holiday but that would probably only work in countries that have 'true' fixed election dates (like the U.S.).
I would think that having elections on weekends or holidays would tend to increase voter turnout. I don't base this on any empirical data, but just my sense that there are some people who just cannot fit in the time to go vote between weekday activities like getting kids ready in the morning, taking them to school, going to work all day, commuting home, stopping by the store, picking the kids up, feeding them, getting them to soccer/gymnastics/piano lessons, etc etc.
The Conservative candidate was using robo-callers that dialled people's homes multiple times (they even hit the offices of Les Nouvelles Hochelaga-Maisonneuve):
http://www.nouvelleshochelagamaisonneuve.com/article-395447-Les-conservateurs-derangent.html
Meantime, Jeac-Claude Rocheleau's campaign has just responded to the Bloc:
COMMUNIQUÉ - VERS L'ÉCHEC D'UN AUTRE PLAN PAILLÉ
Today at 5:08pm
MONTRÉAL - Le nouveau plan économique de Daniel Paillé, celui concernant le port de Montréal, ne passera pas le test de son propre parti, de la population et des groupes environnementaux, prévient Jean-Claude Rocheleau, candidat du NPD pour l'élection partielle dans Hochelaga.
Au cours d'une conférence de presse organisée cette semaine en compagnie du chef du Bloc Québécois, le candidat Paillé a annoncé vouloir faire la promotion du « développement du Saint-Laurent à titre de route maritime », accusant au passage Ottawa de ne pas en faire assez.
Les obstacles auxquels fait référence le candidat Paillé concernant le développement du Saint-Laurent se situent cependant au sein de son propre parti. En effet, en octobre 2003 le porte-parole du Bloc en matière d'environnement, Bernard Bigras prenait position concernant le développement du Saint-Laurent et émettait un communiqué intitulé : « Au mépris de l'environnement, le fédéral se range du côté des américains ». Le député de Rosemont-La-Petite-Patrie écrivait à l'époque : « Ottawa se range clairement du côté des Américains et se prépare à privilégier le développement économique au détriment de la protection de l'environnement ».
La position du gouvernement canadien, concernant le développement du Saint-Laurent, était également dénoncée par une coalition de groupes environnementaux dans une lettre envoyée au ministre des transports de l'époque, Tony Valeri.
Par ailleurs, le plan Paillé ne propose aucune consultation populaire afin que les citoyens aient leur mot à dire dans le modèle de développement des berges du Saint-Laurent à Hochelaga. Le développement portuaire de Montréal va nécessairement entraîner une augmentation du volume de camions en transit par les rues de la circonscription d'Hochelaga, ce qui va donc faire accroître le taux déjà très élevé de pollution atmosphérique.
« Les gens de la circonscription d'Hochelaga n'ont pas besoin d'un politicien qui leur fait des promesses simplement pour se faire élire », a commenté Jean-Claude Rocheleau. « Ils ont besoin de quelqu'un qui comprend leur réalité et qui va travailler dans leurs intérêts. Le plan Paillé version 2009 ne tient pas la route, pas plus que le premier plan qu'il avait mis en place il y a 15 ans ».
Rappelons que Daniel Paillé est l'auteur du plan Paillé, mis en place en 1994 par le gouvernement du Québec à l'époque où il était ministre de l'industrie à l'Assemblée nationale, qui a coûté 116 millions de dollars aux contribuables dans le sillage de la faillite de 3500 entreprises.
-30-
I have always felt we should have our elections on weekends (like many municipalities do). I know in some countries election day is a holiday but that would probably only work in countries that have 'true' fixed election dates (like the U.S.).
I would think that having elections on weekends or holidays would tend to increase voter turnout. I don't base this on any empirical data, but just my sense that there are some people who just cannot fit in the time to go vote between weekday activities like getting kids ready in the morning, taking them to school, going to work all day, commuting home, stopping by the store, picking the kids up, feeding them, getting them to soccer/gymnastics/piano lessons, etc etc.
They probably couldn't rent as many church halls to serve as polling stations that way, though, I guess. Anyways, I agree with you ghoris.
It looks like Amir Khadir and Françoise David (leaders of Québec Solidaire) are following JC-Rochelau on twitter as well these days. Beyond being the new conscience of the PQ on the provincial scene, they are connected to Projet Montréal and their recent successes in the municipal elections (Khadir's wife was Richard Bergeron's co-listaire and would have served in his council seat had Bergeron won the seat and been elected mayor).
If you want to hear JC-Rochelau in action, you can find the audio of a radio debate he took part in yesterday here
The BQ and Liberals spend the whole debate attacking Jean-Claude where he handles himself admirably.
In principle I like the idea of having elections on a Sunday or even a Saturday (like they do in Australia). Elections are on Sundays in almost every European country and municipal elections are on Sundays in Quebec and BC. The only downside i have heard is that if you have elections on Sundays, it makes it easier for fundamentalist religious crazies to mobilize and go straight from church to polling stations to vote for whatever nutjob they favour.
Stockholm does make an interesting point on the mobilizing of certain voters. Ever the practical one ...
Meantime, Fin Donnelly has picked up the endorsement of the Georgia Straight in New Westminster--Coquitlam. Not completely unexpected, but they have been a bit hostile to the NDP lately and a bit more pro-Green, so this is positive development.
For the environment, Fin Donnelly's the best bet in New Westminster-Coquitlam by-election
Most politicians say good things about the environment. But only one of them swam the length of the Fraser River twice to raise awareness of salmon populations and was honoured by the Squamish Nation for his efforts with an aboriginal name. Only one in this region has visited more than 100 schools to talk about the environment and been named "environmental educator of the year" by teachers who specialize in this area.
That politician is Coquitlam councillor Fin Donnelly, the executive director of the Rivershed Society of B.C.
Donnelly played a key role in Coquitlam's developing an affordable-housing strategy and taking action to tackle homelessness. When he served on the Metro Vancouver board, he introduced a "zero waste" motion, which set the region on a path to diverting a huge amount of garbage out of the waste stream.
On Monday (November 9) voters in the federal riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam will choose their next member of Parliament. There are four candidates: Donnelly (NDP), Port Moody councillor Diana Dilworth (Conservative), consultant Rebecca Helps (Green), and engineer Ken Beck Lee (Liberal).
Since 2004, the NDP has won two of the three elections in New Westminster-Coquitlam and narrowly lost the third race. The Conservatives won once and came second in the two other campaigns. This by-election, which was called after NDP MP Dawn Black stepped down to run for the provincial legislature, is shaping up as another race between the NDP and Conservative candidates.
Dilworth has focused attention on the Conservatives' law-and-order agenda. She has ducked debates like so many other Conservative candidates in the last federal election. As a member of the governing party, she has to answer for the fact that the Evergreen Line still hasn't been built.
The Liberal candidate, Lee, understands the seriousness of climate change and he impressed some by knocking off Leader Michael Ignatieff's former communications spokesperson in B.C. for the party nomination. But Lee has never been elected to Parliament, and he could probably benefit by gaining elected experience at a lower level of government before trying to enter the big leagues.
The Green candidate is well-meaning, but she cannot match Donnelly's environmental credentials. He is the best bet to stop the Conservative. He will also put pressure on the Harper government for not seriously addressing global warming. It's a no-brainer. If you know people who live in New Westminster-Coquitlam, please encourage them to get to a polling station on Monday and vote for Fin Donnelly for the good of the planet.
I'm disappointed the Québec unions haven't come out more strongly in support of Jean-Claude Rochelau. It's not like they always have to support the BQ/PQ. In the last provincial election the Montreal Central Council of the Confédération des syndicats nationaux endorsed Québec Solidaire and the party won a seat.
Well, the race isn't over yet. BTW, I'm listening to that radio interview you posted. Very interesting that JC is the focus of it all.
I'll be curious to see what happens. I guess the NDP should feel flattered that the BQ feels the need to go on the attack in what ought to be just about the safest BQ seat in Quebec and it also speaks volumes that the NDP and the BQ are each attacking the other for being somehow linked to the Tories - while the Liberals are completely out of it. I would also be curious as to how many voters in Hochelaga actually see registering long guns as being all that important an issue to them (its one thing to have an opinion on something, its another thing to care that much about it).
I'm waiting for the next shoe to drop and for the BQ to "accuse" the NDP of supporting multiculturalism and not taking a hard enough line against any "reasonable accommodations" of minorities.
Hochelaga is not the safest BQ seat in Quebec, although it is fairly safe. I don't think they are that worried about the NDP.
I can remember clearly that before the Outremont by-election in 2007, there was at least one poll done in that riding by some media outlet that showed the NDP and Liberals were neck-and-neck with less than 2 week before voting day.
I find it curious that there has not been anything similar taking place this time. Could it be that the NDP is so far ahead of the Liberals in Hochelaga that the Liberal-friendly media aren't publishing any results, in fear of contributing to an NDP victory? Would the Liberal-friendly media rather a Bloc hold rather than an NDP victory, since that would show that there is another option to voters other than strictly Liberal or Bloc?
I don't think there's anything that complicated going on - these by-elections don't have the high-profile of the 2007 by-elections or of Outremont.
Yeah, the Outremont byelection drew a lot of attention because it had a high profile candidate (Mulcair) and Outremont is where a large percentage of Quebec "opinion leaders" live. There has been no "hype" about Hochelaga because the conventional wisdom was that it was a supersafe BQ seat (and if you check the returns it IS just about the safest BQ seat in Quebec) and the municipal elections in Montreal drew away all the attention.
I hope the BQ takes Hochelaga for granted. That way they are more likely to get a nasty surprise on Monday. For the NDP it is a win-win, expectations from the media are very low so any improvement on the 2008 showing (which is almost certain) will be seen as a plus. The Liberals will have a lot of egg on their face when they end up a distant third or even fourth after all the hype about how under Iggy they were going to become competitive in Quebec again.
Nope. Municipal elections are held on Saturdays in B.C.
Here's an interesting column on the byelections by L. Ian MacDonald:
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/story.html?id=2191906
"In Nova Scotia, it's also a two-way race between the Conservatives and NDP, with Scott Armstrong trying to reclaim Bill Casey's former seat of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, while Mark Austin is staking a strong NDP claim with help from the new provincial government. The Liberals have tried to make the case that Stephen Harper was mean to Casey in kicking him out of caucus, but Casey's name isn't on the ballot. That was last year, when he got 69% of the vote, and the Tories finished in single digits and in third place behind the Dippers, while the Libs were fourth. This time, the inherent brand equity should be enough to push the Conservatives across the finish line about five points ahead of the NDP. But the Tories will be the first to acknowledge that it's been a closer race than they bargained for. This is a test for Peter MacKay as the regional warlord. He needs to win this one."
More good coverage of what's happening in Hochelaga in today's La Presse!
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/...
Yeah, the Outremont byelection drew a lot of attention because it had a high profile candidate (Mulcair) and Outremont is where a large percentage of Quebec "opinion leaders" live. There has been no "hype" about Hochelaga because the conventional wisdom was that it was a supersafe BQ seat (and if you check the returns it IS just about the safest BQ seat in Quebec) and the municipal elections in Montreal drew away all the attention.
I hope the BQ takes Hochelaga for granted. That way they are more likely to get a nasty surprise on Monday. For the NDP it is a win-win, expectations from the media are very low so any improvement on the 2008 showing (which is almost certain) will be seen as a plus. The Liberals will have a lot of egg on their face when they end up a distant third or even fourth after all the hype about how under Iggy they were going to become competitive in Quebec again.
Real Menard only won Hochelaga with 49% of the vote last year - that makes it a solid BQ seat, but not one of the safest. One of the safest would be one of the BQ seats where they win with 60% of the vote.
As for Monday's results, it is very unlikely that the Liberals would finish below the Conservatives. They may even end up closer to the NDP than some think.
Further coverage here:
(RueFrontenac.com is the online news outlet being run by the locked out workers of Le Journal de Montréal, owned by Quebecor on whose board Daniel Paillé used to sit)
http://www.ruefrontenac.com/nouvelles-generales/politiquefederale/13371-partielles-hochelaga
Jean-Claude Rocheleau was the only candidate to drop by their offices (and Jack Layton the only party leader). They wrote about it here, with photos.
Also a couple of pieces from the Radio-Canada website:
http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/Montreal/2009/11/06/003-partielles-hochelaga.shtml
http://www.radio-canada.ca/regions/est-quebec/2009/11/05/007-elections-MLKR.shtml
And an overview from the CBC online politics site, which includes a link to another piece Steve Puddicombe wrote on CCMV:
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2009/11/by-election-countdown.html
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2009/11/bill-caseys-legacy.html
If anyone comes across any other good regional coverage, please share!
Real Menard only won Hochelaga with 49% of the vote last year - that makes it a solid BQ seat, but not one of the safest. One of the safest would be one of the BQ seats where they win with 60% of the vote.
As for Monday's results, it is very unlikely that the Liberals would finish below the Conservatives. They may even end up closer to the NDP than some think.
The BQ did not achieve 60% in a single seat in the last election. At 49%, Hochelaga was their 15th best riding out of 75. The top riding was Pointe de l'Ile next door at 56.1%.
You're back to spinning us, Debater. I admit: things got kind of dull around here with no Liberal spinners to set straight. Welcome back.
Fin Donnelly also supports a carbon tax:
Donnelly reconciles the differences by saying the goals of reducing carbon emissions are the same and he plans to work with caucus to find the best way of achieving those ends.
__________________________________
One struggle, many fronts.
The one thing we haven't discussed is how these byelections are make or break for the Green party. Since some polls show them with as much as 11% of the vote nationally and since several of these seats OUGHT to be fertile ground for them (ie: a seat in Nova Scotia that is adjacent to where they had their best result in Canada last election, a seat in Vancouver were supposedly "everyone" is "into" the environment and a seat in east end Montreal where issues around industrial pollution are major) I see no reason why they shouldn't get at least 15% of the vote in those three seats and maybe 10% in MIKR. Unless they can do that - then I think we have to pronounce them to be D-E-D dead!
In Cumberland - Colchester - Musquodoboit Valley, I had missed the fact that the urban area of Truro has (2006 census) 22,376 people, more than 25% of the riding's population of 87,895.
When you add the urban areas of Amherst (9,547), Springhill (3,941), Parrsboro (1,401), and Oxford (1,178), that makes this riding almost 44% urban.
If you question a place like the Town of Oxford being called urban, keep in mind that Stats Can defines "urban area" as "Area with a population of at least 1,000 and no fewer than 400 persons per square kilometre." That's how they come up with their famous figure of "In 2006 80% of Canadians were living in urban areas."
It may be urban by definition, but its not. There are only a few ridings that are truly 'rural'- and they are really more frontier.
Rural is the common usage, but I'm always thinking small town and rural [or frontier and small town]. And CCMV is quintessentially that.
You want to know the difference between urban and rural?
If it's urban, in it's postal code, it has a number higher than 0 as the second didget. That means they have door-to-door delivery. All 'rural' areas have a 0 for the second didget.
The Bloc has to be scared of losing Hochelaga if they come out with a last-minute fear campaign like they have.
What do you want to bet that the Liberal spin machine will say that finishing third in all four by-elections 'was a great victory for the Liberal Party!'?
Just did a drive-through of Hochelaga on our way to the States for a family thing. The Bloc "signs" weren't street posters at all ... They were stickers that the Bloc slapped on top of the big blue Paille cheque street posters we had put up. Of course this is defacing an opponent's. signs and is not allowed, so the NDP has removed nearly all of the stickers now. I only saw 2 in total all the way down Pie IX.
Guess which party is the only one not to feature its Leader on street signs (cough, Iggy, cough). Oh, the Greens didn't either, but they only had 1 sign up that I saw at all. A friend of mine on the campaign says that the Liberal campaign is just the candidate and his two sisters, and even he admitted at one of the all candidates that he can't win
That's'all I got for now, except that Jean-Claude is being interviewed for a story running on RadCan tomorrow night after Tout Le Monde En Parle, so stay tuned.
Just did a drive-through of Hochelaga on our way to the States for a family thing. The Bloc "signs" weren't street posters at all ... They were stickers that the Bloc slapped on top of the big blue Paille cheque street posters we had put up. Of course this is defacing an opponent's. signs and is not allowed, so the NDP has removed nearly all of the stickers now. I only saw 2 in total all the way down Pie IX.
Guess which party is the only one not to feature its Leader on street signs (cough, Iggy, cough). Oh, the Greens didn't either, but they only had 1 sign up that I saw at all. A friend of mine on the campaign says that the Liberal campaign is just the candidate and his two sisters, and even he admitted at one of the all candidates that he can't win
That's'all I got for now, except that Jean-Claude is being interviewed for a story running on RadCan tomorrow night after Tout Le Monde En Parle, so stay tuned.
Just did a drive-through of Hochelaga on our way to the States for a family thing. The Bloc "signs" weren't street posters at all ... They were stickers that the Bloc slapped on top of the big blue Paille cheque street posters we had put up. Of course this is defacing an opponent's. signs and is not allowed, so the NDP has removed nearly all of the stickers now. I only saw 2 in total all the way down Pie IX.
Guess which party is the only one not to feature its Leader on street signs (cough, Iggy, cough). Oh, the Greens didn't either, but they only had 1 sign up that I saw at all. A friend of mine on the campaign says that the Liberal campaign is just the candidate and his two sisters, and even he admitted at one of the all candidates that he can't win
That's'all I got for now, except that Jean-Claude is being interviewed for a story running on RadCan tomorrow night after Tout Le Monde En Parle, so stay tuned.
I'm impressed by how seriously the media seems to be taking Jean-Claude Rocheleau's candidacy in these last few days. Also, Mike Duffy made a tour through Amherst, NS this Friday to support the Conservative candidate and spent his whole "earned media" opportunity defending why Duffy the Senator is such a fine thing. Among the reasoning? If you're nice to me, I can pull some strings for you and find money for the riding in Ottawa. Always the classy one 
At the other end of the riding (Truro), Infrastructure Minister John "Rusty" Baird (or Mr. Angrypants as Rick Mercer likes to call him), went out on the campaign trail with the Conservative candidate. The article leads with Mark Austin, NDP candidate, talking about political integrity and then saying nice things about the Liberal and Green candidates. Alexa McDonough was on hand to support NDP candidate Mark Austin. NDP supporters have posted some debate clips on Mark Austin's facebook page and the NDP has a little graphic going showing all the communities and events that Mark has visited over the course of the campaign. Does anyone know if any New Brunswick NDPers have supported the campaign at all, given that it borders NB and a seat that the NB NDP used to hold provincially (Tantramar)?
Despite strong Bloc support, educated people understand that the new guy is not Real Menard. Working people sympathetic to the party were talking about the gun registry (some parts of the riding are very tough) and younger people spoke of the environment. Oodles of volunteers at the office set on swaying ex Liberal voters. People mentioned that we had already phoned them. NDP will do very well.
If it's urban, in it's postal code, it has a number higher than 0 as the second didget. That means they have door-to-door delivery. All 'rural' areas have a 0 for the second didget.
=========
Not always. Mine starts V3W and I do not get home mail delivery, actually all new subdivisions do not it seems.
It seems to be a BC and NB thing with the rural postal codes, no1.
Kowalsky, thanks for the further background.
I found a few more clippings about the Quebec races:
http://www.ledevoir.com/2009/11/07/276029.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5gFkOf1SLv_w1AF_xGzUh1j03S-2g
Real Menard only won Hochelaga with 49% of the vote last year - that makes it a solid BQ seat, but not one of the safest. One of the safest would be one of the BQ seats where they win with 60% of the vote.
As for Monday's results, it is very unlikely that the Liberals would finish below the Conservatives. They may even end up closer to the NDP than some think.
The BQ did not achieve 60% in a single seat in the last election. At 49%, Hochelaga was their 15th best riding out of 75. The top riding was Pointe de l'Ile next door at 56.1%.
You're back to spinning us, Debater. I admit: things got kind of dull around here with no Liberal spinners to set straight. Welcome back.
I'm not spinning anything - I was pointing out that Hochelaga is not the safest BQ seat, which you have now proven yourself by acknowledging that there were 14 ridings where they did better.
The fact that the BQ did not get to 60% in a single seat last election proves that it is a party on the decline though.
Here's an interesting interview from Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière du Loup with Layton and NDP candidate François Lapointe. In it François Lapointe talks about how he used to be a very active supporter of the Parti Québecois and Gilles Duceppe, until he found that there could be a real progressive and effective alternative in the NPD. Another interesting part of the interview, is the softness of Layton's French responses to questions. Maybe it was a bad day for him (probably), or maybe it is a reflection of the party's rapid advance into traditional Québec francophone territory and thus Layton's company at the interview, but his French stood out. With all these strong francophone candidates popping out of the woodword, he's going to need to kick his French up another notch before the next general election. Next election, Layton is going to be the only federalist "native son" from Québec. If he works on his French, maybe he can become the "prodigal son" of triumphant federal party.
Here's a note too on how the local campaign has been treating the national issue.
I have to say, I watched that whole interview of Layton and Francois Lapointe and I didn't think there was anything wrong with Layton's French at all. He has a very good accent that sounds quite "Quebecois" (unlike Ignatieff who sounds like he's hosting a tv talk show on literary criticism from Paris) and I thought he made his points well. It was a longish radio interview and was not mean to be a fire and brimstone speech etc...
Now is probably as good a time as any to have a little contest where we each predict the popular vote in each of the four byelections and see who comes the closest. here goes (I'm trying as hard as I can to be objective and not be coloured by what I WANT to see happen):
NWC: NDP - 43%, CPC - 35%, Libs - 16%, G - 5%
MIKR: BQ - 38%, CPC - 33%, Libs - 16%, NDP - 10%, G - 2%
Hochelaga: BQ - 45%, NDP - 30%, Libs - 15%, CPC - 7%, G - 3%
CCMV: - CPC - 37%, NDP - 32%, Libs - 22%, G - 5%, CHP - 4%
A couple of side bets I'd make if I had a bookie: Could the NDP beat the Liberals in MIKR and drive them into fourth place in which case the NDP would be ahead of the Liberals in BOTH Quebec contests?? Also, could the Green party finish fifth in CCMV behind the Christian Heritage Party candidate - who seems to be campaigning quite actively.
Prediction - the authoritative edition 
NWC: NDP - 39%, CPC - 36%, Libs - 18%, G - 6%
MIKR: CPC - 43%, BQ - 34%, Libs - 11%, NDP - 10%, G - 2%
Hochelaga: BQ - 45%, NDP - 27%, Libs - 17%, CPC - 8%, G - 3%
CCMV: - CPC - 39%, NDP - 31%, Libs - 20%, G - 7%, CHP - 3%
Lead news stories (in order of play): Tories gain two, Libs finish 3rd in 4, Stumbling Bloc, NDP makes gains.
Last election the NDP got 74 percentage points of support across the four ridings (average support 18.5%, roughly equal to nat'l level of support)
This election I am predicting the NDP gets 107 percentage points of support across the four ridings (average support 26.7%, perhaps an indication of what the NDP could get nationally if it were better resourced at the local level). I am probably too optimistic about the NDP.
That is equivalent to a ~45% increase in support over the three ridings. Too bad, so sad for the Liberals.
CPC spin: Harper's recognition of Québec as a nation + the success of "Canada's Economic Plan" are responsible for the victories and reflect a general rise in CPC fortunes.
Lib spin: These were weak ridings for the Liberals to begin with. Even so, the improvement in Liberal fortunes in CCMV are an encouraging sign and show that Canadians are tiring of the partisan and adversarial approach of Stephen Harper. As for Québec, the party is reorganising and rebuilding...a process that will be helped along by changes in the OLO (e.g. Peter Donolo, departure of some Toronto crowd, etc).
BQ spin: We knew it was going to be difficult and that the Tories had selected a popular and well-known local candidate, but byelections are not usually indicative of national elections.
NDP spin: We're on the rise. We did better almost everywhere and elected a new MP. Voters rejected the HST. The voters thought we were smart (and therefore support our phony excuse) for not defeating Harper. Some sort of hyperbole about NDP ambitions for the next election.
Pundit spin: Wow, the Conservatives could really win a majority now. They only need 9 seats (b/c André Arthur- IND always votes with them). The Liberals are bad because their poll numbers are low. The Liberal poll numbers are low because the Liberals are bad. The BQ is not relevant. The NDP is relevant only insofar as they show how the Liberals are so bad and to provide some balance to this otherwise Liberal-Conservative commentary.
V. Jara - I agree with almost everything you say about the likely spin etc...but I have a hunch that the NDP will win NWC by significantly more than the narrow 3% margin they had in the last election.
I would add that IF the Tories were to win MIKR they would tout it as evidence that Quebecers have forgiven and forgotten all the incendiary Quebec-bashing of last year by Harper with the crap about "socialists and separatists".
I would also add that if the Green Party gets an average of about 3% in these ridings - there will be some spin that they are a waning force and that national polls showing them at 10 or 11 percent are grossly overestimating what they would actually get in an election.
You COULD be right about MIKR - given that the BQ has a bit of history of doing badly in byelections - remember how last time there were three byelections in Quebec, the BQ lost 3/4 of its vote in Outremont, instead of losing Roberval narrowly as many expected, they lost by a big two to 1 margin and while Ste. Hyacinthe was supposed to be an easy BQ hold - they almost lost it. But then in the general election, the BQ won Ste. Hyacinthe by a massive margin and they almost won back Roberval! During the Chretien years the BQ lost a number of seats to the Liberals in byelections. All that being said, i still don't expect the BQ to lose MIKR.
The NDP can only gain overall in these four seats because they are running active campaigns in all four ridings (yes, even in MIKR) whereas in the last election only NWC was the site of a real NDP campaign. Hochelaga was a bit of a tier-two target and in CCMV and MIKR the NDP had only "paper candidates".
You could be right. The CPC has run a poor campaign in NWC.
I was interested in Truro because I read a report somewhere, which I now can't find, about Mark Austin talking about the need for public transit in Truro (and Amherst??) and getting some applause from those at the meeting.
Although the Town itself has only 11,000 people, considering Bible Hill and other suburbs bring it up to 22,376 people, it seems odd to me that it has no public transit.
I see Peter MacKay said last year "Places like Truro and Pictou County . . can be the beneficiaries of programs and projects aimed at having buses and that sort of mass transit available to people."
I'm not sure these 4 ridings can be seen as an indication of the Green Party.
Federally, in Nova Scotia, the Greens didn't run a candidate in this riding in the last election so the candidate there is starting from scratch. The two ridings in Quebec are Bloc ridings, and the Greens target demographic and the Bloc's often make it difficult for the Greens to get gains.
NWC is probably the only riding that the Greens could even approach double digits in. The Greens take in the election was 7.2% in the riding so anywhere between 5 and 9% would be fitting for a by-election. Sometimes Greens do well in by-election if the ground is ripe, but with the close battle between the Conservatives and the NDP in this riding previously and Fin's Green cred, the by-election result will probably mirror the general results quite closely.
You could be right. The CPC has run a poor campaign in NWC.
I agree. Donna Dilworth is getting a lot of negative press right now for playing hide-and-seek with the media (although the same charge was also levelled at Dona Cadman and she still pulled out a win). Yonah Martin (2008 candidate, now CPC Senator) was a far more impressive candidate and was able to garner a significant amount of support from Coquitlam's burgeoning Korean community. I don't think this race will be as close as 2008.
I'm not sure these 4 ridings can be seen as an indication of the Green Party.
Federally, in Nova Scotia, the Greens didn't run a candidate in this riding in the last election so the candidate there is starting from scratch. The two ridings in Quebec are Bloc ridings, and the Greens target demographic and the Bloc's often make it difficult for the Greens to get gains.
NWC is probably the only riding that the Greens could even approach double digits in. The Greens take in the election was 7.2% in the riding so anywhere between 5 and 9% would be fitting for a by-election. Sometimes Greens do well in by-election if the ground is ripe, but with the close battle between the Conservatives and the NDP in this riding previously and Fin's Green cred, the by-election result will probably mirror the general results quite closely.
Again, I tend to agree. If the Greens are ever going to win a seat, they are going to do so by cobbling together enough votes from demographics like disaffected NDP environmentalists, upwardly-mobile urban Liberal hipsters, and "Tories with composters". Although there seem to be these little isolated pockets of Green support in places like Bruce County, Ontario and Vancouver Island, for the most part these demographics are found in inner-city, upper-income ridings. The ridings up for grabs this time around don't fit that demographic profile. MLKR and CCMV are clearly write-offs, Hochelaga is too working class and NWC is too suburban.
This tells you everything you really ever needed to know about the SO-CALLED Green Party:
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Federal-Politics/2009/11/06/Green-candid...
"Of the four candidates competing in Monday’s federal by-election in the New Westminster-Coquitlam riding, the one with the least environmental experience is the one running for the Green Party.
“I am not an environmental activist. I’m not,” Rebecca Helps told The Tyee. “I’m a businessperson. I have a business degree. But I recognize that we need to have a sustainable economy.”
Helps, a Port Moody resident who has worked for the Yellow Pages, is running against Fin Donnelly, who founded the Rivershed Society, Diana Dilworth, who has worked for the Fraser Basin Council, and Ken Beck Lee, who consults for a United Nations agency that monitors climate change."
I agree with the vote prognostications posted above for NWC. The only elephant in the room that I see, after following NWC with a fine tooth comb, is this:
The Cons are running a deliberate stealth campaign in NWC... avoiding the media, all candidates meetings, etc. toward the end of this campaign. The same campaign strategy was utilized by the Cons when Deborah Meredeth ran in Vancouver Quadra and she received alot of bad press as a result. But the Cons still managed to erase an 11,500 vote margin to lose only by a 151 vote margin.
The Cons had the better campaign machine in Quadra and all of the pundits suggested that the by-election would be a relatively easy Lib victory, which also enhanced Con turnout while many Lib voters thought the result was a foregone conclusion.
It's the same story all over again in NWC and from reviewing the campaign so far it also appears that the Cons have the better volunteer machine, perhaps twice as large as the NDP (I hope that's wrong). If, and that's a big IF, the Cons should win NWC it would be due to the foregoing.
Remember this is a by-election and I doubt turnout will exceed 30%. That's where the campaign machine and GOTV comes into play.
But in this case Fin is the 'star' candidate unlike the lacklustre contenders in Quadra.
As an aside, the only time that the NDP has ever lost a by-election with an incumbent MP resigning was when Mark Rose stepped down after the 1980 election in Mission-Port Moody (which overlaps this riding) to run in the 1983 provincial election - the same circumstances as with Dawn Black.
Anyhoo, get the popcorn out tomorrow night as I suspect we will have alot to celebrate!
The difference in that byelection that the NDP lost in 1983 was that the Tories had just picked Mulroney, had massive momentum and were sky high in the national polls, while the NDP was at a low ebb and deeply divided over the repatariation of the constitution etc...it was a surprise that under the circumstances the NDP came as close as it did to winning that byelection.
Stock, good point. I also should have added "Having said that, it has no bearing whatsoever upon tomorrow's by-election in NWC. It's just an historical footnote!"
Here is the Radio-Canada story on Hochelaga. The Libs, Conservatives and Greens ARE NOT EVEN MENTIONED.
The reason I have put the NWC result as being so close is exactly the type of scenario Centrist describes coupled with a suspicion that the Tory internal polls had Dilworth up at the beginning of the campaign and they have been running a low profile campaign in order to try and coast her in just under the finish line. I don't think they will succeed.
One of the interesting factors in byelection predictions is that with the low turnout you are only getting the most motivated voters. Usually the most motivated voters are those that think their candidate could win...unless they are apathetic or complacent. Under this scenario the 22.9% (8,904 votes) Anne Lagacé-Dowson got in the 2008 federal election might have been enough to win a byelection campaign (see Outremont for reference; Mulcair needed 6,934 votes to win his byelection). So the Liberals will do worse than they would in a general election everywhere except for MAYBE CCMV, IMV. Same for the Greens and CHP is a joke. In NWC, the NDP risks apathy among its supporters and local Conservatives will be eager to kick the NDP out. It is a dangerous cocktail that requires a good campaign and I feel like the NDP has been doing a good job.
It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow night. The Liberals are not competitive in any of the seats, so there is no chance for any good news coming out of these races for them but likely no bad news either. The Tories have the biggest potential upside - they stand to gain up to three seats - and very little downside as the worst they can do is the status quo. The BQ is likely to hold its seats but if they lose one (or even more improbably, both) that will not reflect well on them. Losing NWC would be a serious blow to the NDP, but I think they can expect to hang on and also post decent showings in MLKR and CCMV, which should generate some positive spin.
You COULD be right about MIKR - given that the BQ has a bit of history of doing badly in byelections - remember how last time there were three byelections in Quebec, the BQ lost 3/4 of its vote in Outremont, instead of losing Roberval narrowly as many expected, they lost by a big two to 1 margin and while Ste. Hyacinthe was supposed to be an easy BQ hold - they almost lost it. But then in the general election, the BQ won Ste. Hyacinthe by a massive margin and they almost won back Roberval!
Then again, the CROP poll for that month (September 2007) had the BQ at only 31%
This tells you everything you really ever needed to know about the SO-CALLED Green Party:
"Of the four candidates competing in Monday’s federal by-election in the New Westminster-Coquitlam riding, the one with the least environmental experience is the one running for the Green Party.
“I am not an environmental activist. I’m not,” Rebecca Helps told The Tyee. “I’m a businessperson. Helps, a Port Moody resident who has worked for the Yellow Pages, is running against Fin Donnelly, who founded the Rivershed Society, Diana Dilworth, who has worked for the Fraser Basin Council, and Ken Beck Lee, who consults for a United Nations agency that monitors climate change."
Huh, wonder what is going on in NWC, as have heard nothing since the first days.
NWC Signs:
NDP is as expected.
Liberals are doing suprisingly well. Many of the big, new houses in west Coquitlam have them so that indicates wealthy East Asians are lining up behind Lee.
Conservatives, not so many signs as expected.
I'm told the Liberals are working hard in NWC, to test out their Liberalist software. Given their candidate, they may be cutting into some of the vote they picked up last time. Which would be good for the NDP. In that part of the world, it killed us that the Liberal vote fell off in favour of the Conservatives last time.
In Hochelaga, I gather their strategy is to run as the "local candidate" given the visible parachutes of the other candidates. It must be brutal getting any media attention for the by-election, given all the brou-ha-ha going on with the municipal elections right now (I guess Louise Harel's number #2 had to be relieved of his duties over some scandal). Rocheleau has been getting some coverage (for e.g., on the radio, from attending other local events), and I guess Svend was in there today for some Pride conference or something (I didn't understand the french). But he would be an asset in that riding, I believe, as he worked long years with Real Menard on a series of issues, and he is fluent. I think there's a gay village in that part of Montreal, right?
On the other hand, once the municipals are over with, the effort they're putting into Hochelaga may pay off. Lord knows they are working hard enough.
Tomorrow are the provincial by-elections in Nova Scotia, and I'm hearing we're probably good for both seats (i.e., taking both from the Tories). That should help redirect attention next to our efforts in CCMV.
How will these allegations of government spending and alleged funny business play into all these seats, I wonder. The story that looks like longer-term trouble is the one about who's not getting the money vs. who is, from Melissa Fung on CBC TV last night (the public rec centre didn't get the $$ in Helena Guergis' riding, while the private school did). If that's more widespread, then they'll ahve some real problems on their hands.
Plus Rick Hillier all but called Peter MacKay a liar in his book, giving every indication that MacKay did so see Colvin's reports on torture of Afghani prisoners.
The boatload of Sri Lankan refugees set to arrive soon, however, reminds me of boats of refugees the summer of 1987. This time, though, if the Conservatives try to push a few buttons with that issue, they'll undergo quite a bit of Jason Kenney's work in new communities.
So, the long and short of it is, I'm not sure how those issues will play out, but those are the ones I'm watching in regards to the by-elections right now.
For what its worth, I find interest in any of the by-elections in Nova Scotia [provincial and federal] unusually slight. I'll bet the vast majority of Nova Scotians will just realize today that there are provincial by-elections.
Another interesting sidebar to the Hochelaga byelection is the fact that its all under the radar screen what with the hotly contested municipal race. The BQ "machine" is totally sidetracked into trying to salvage Louise Harel and can't help Paille as much as usual. Also, with the latest revelation of corruption around Harel's closest associate - its becoming apparent that she is goingt down the drain. Which also means that exactly one week before the byelection, the PQ/BQ is going to be very demoralized.
Its not necessarily a bad thing for the media to be ignoring Hochelaga for now - I suspect that the more "local" the race is, the better for the NDP - so maybe its good to just fly under the radar screen and just keep pounding away at the local level.
Bob Fyfe (sorry, it's Fife) of CTV said on Power Play tonight that his Conservative and Liberal sources were telling him that the NDP was set to win inn both BC and NS, and that the Conservatives don't think they can take the Quebec seats.
I'm sure that's what the sources are telling him, but although it might be what we'd like to hear, we should also consider their motivations for saying so. In other words, we shouldn't get complacent on the basis of those comments, which must surely be one of the things they're hoping for. I'm sure it's also being said to counteract any impact of the coverage of Ignatieff's visit to CCMV yesterday as well.
Interesting observations, thanks OO and kens.
Like if those voters get a sense that it is a shoe-in they might stay home - make the folks go to sleep - keep them awake and in the voting booth.
Going to watch the news reports closely on this.
The NDP candidate in Montmagny-l'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup has started a blog, if you're interested:
http://www.francoislapointenpd.ca
where did you find that blog OO? There is no link to it on the unite4change site
I'm a very good researcher !
OK, not really. It was the website given at Pundits' Guide: Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup, QC
Oh.... I love the Pundit's Guide too, I use it for everything, pretty much. I think it is my second most accessed political site. :)
It has links to everything.
but, but but remind what about my blog - now my feelings are so hurt!!!
Oh, jan, I am sorry, no exclusion meant, but I use PG, for so many things in a day.
It is very useful for dial up users to access things they would to do a google for. Saves a couple of steps, and you do not have to make bookmarked links of you own, either, that you have to search through for something, cause you get so many.
One can only read your blog a couple of times a day, hun, I am sorry. ;)
I was just kidding remind - I don't always put a blog post up - don't worry I understand dial-up and so no fear - my feelings are definitely not hurt.
:D
BC by-election is so over shadowed by any all olympic news, that we hear nothing else on the news.
Oh but we did get some indepth coverage of the Montreal municipal election scandal and ties to Cosa Nostra.
Now there is name I had not heard in a while
There are huge numbers of Liberal signs in west Coquitlam. I was on the bus and looked up a couple of street just south of the Vancouver Golf Club and practically every house had Liberal signs. Dozens of signs on just a few blocks.
No way will the Liberals win, but they certainly are doing a lot better than 11%. They will probably return to the mid/upper-20s of previous elections.
I would guess results like this:
NDP 38%
Con 30%
Lib 26%
Grn 6%
Thanks for the update BD!
You're welcome. I honestly don't get the Liberal strength (smoke and mirrors?). Their national polls are so bad but they have new strength in a riding they win once in a blue moon. I also saw a couple of canvassers with Liberal buttons in Coquitlam. The Conservative candidate came to my door when I wasn't home (and they phoned me several weeks ago).
No sign of NDP yet other than a leaflet. I'm in a swing poll, so should get NDP attention. Mind you, the NDP barely campaigned provincially and held this area.
Actually I get it, some are just not being able to stomach the Harper cons, but they still believe the NDP is the poor man's party.
Or given the particular candidacy circumstances here, the poor *white* man's party.
Now that would be a co-opting action in order to score a political point, by a white man.
If his twitter and facebook pages are any indication, J-C Rochelau seems to be keeping very active in Hochelaga. If babblers want to help out, here is a donation link
The NPD-QC campaign in general seems well run.
If Projet Montréal does well in the Montréal municipal elections this week, I wonder if it might generate any coat-tails for Jean-Claude in Hochelaga.
Gosh, that's certainly my hope. That, and a complacent Bloc demoralized from a nomination fight and a disappointing municipal campaign.
I've certainly been very very impressed with the effort that's going in to the Hochelaga campaign. The candidate is going full-tilt, has some great positioning as the one Local candidate in Hochelaga, and he seems to be getting tons of support from the folks at the Federal Caucus and federal office.
Go Jean-Claude !!!
wow - that is so cool Stock - make a contest. I'm very tempted.
And from an election stock market, 'Inkling Public Marketplace', here is the market's perspective of the winner in New Westminster-Coquitlam and the NDP is leading the pack:
Which political party will win the Canadian by-election being held in New Westminster-Coquitlam on November 9?
[Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.]
New Democratic Party - $68.63; Conservative Party - $28.23; Liberal Party - $2.51 Other - $0.62;
http://home.inklingmarkets.com/markets/23169