Electoral Maps - 2011 Federal Election Poll-by-Poll Results

105 posts / 0 new
Last post
Krago
Electoral Maps - 2011 Federal Election Poll-by-Poll Results

For those of you who like this sort of thing, this is the sort of thing you like.

Issues Pages: 
Regions: 
David Young

Is there a specific link where we can find these maps?

 

Krago

Just click on the red text.  The links are embedded.

David Young

I'd just like to be able to find the link for South Shore-St. Margaret's, that all.

genstrike

I'd be curious to see maps for Winnipeg.

Also:  the Saanich-Gulf Islands is an interesting one, in that it really shows how the Green Party has adapted to being a small party in FPTP (or consciously became a personality cult around Elizabeth May, depending on how charitable you're feeling at the moment) by focusing solely on the leader and getting her elected in that one riding.  Just look at all the green in SGI, and how it doesn't even extend to one poll in any of the neighboring ridings.

Sean in Ottawa

Or that Green supporters voted Green where tehy thought they could win and not elsewhere. The only test would be if we saw a PR election map over top.

adma

Krago wrote:
P.S. Those gray blobs in Longueuil and La Salle-Emard are polls won by the Marxist-Leninists (according to Elections Canada).

Tab errors, I'll presume (not unlike that M-L poll in Miss E-Cooksville in 2004)

Northern-54

I would like to see a map for the Western Arctic.  Thanks in advance.

dacckon dacckon's picture

The NDP seems almost nonexistant in rural Manitoba and Sask,

 

the question is how do they connect with these communities they once held?

Aristotleded24

Brandon-Souris, Manitoba?

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Edmonton?

dacckon dacckon's picture

lac-saint-louis? :)

 

I also would like to see Calgary out of curiousity and any areas in alberta which might become an NDP seat when more seats are added.

Ippurigakko

Krago wrote:

(The incredibly boring) Brandon-Souris - 2011 Electoral Map

(The far more exciting) Edmonton- 2011 Electoral Map

 
Remember at the start of the campaign when the BQ incumbent running against Romeo Saganash said that whites would never vote for a Cree candidate?  Well, Mr. Saganash did quite well in the southern portion of Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou.  It was the northern part where he had a close race.

  • Abitibi: NDP-44%, CONS-26%, BQ-18%, LIB-10%, GRN-2%
  • Baie-James: NDP-58%, BQ-25%, CONS-12%, LIB-4%, GRN-2%
  • Nunavik: NDP-30%, GRN-28%, LIB-21%, CONS-13%, BQ-8%
  • Eeyou: NDP-83%, LIB-8%, CONS-6%, BQ-2%, GRN-1%

 

Way to go Nunavik! Good thing they didn't vote BQ! Awesome Nunavik more vote Green party, I know they voted him just because he is Inuit MP of Nunavik.

Hey Krago, could u give me link of Nunavut territory? thanks.

Threads

I'm somewhat interested in seeing what a results map of Lethbridge would look like, Krago.  Thanks.

adma

 

The red looks like spots of blood begging for a band-aid.

Lou Arab Lou Arab's picture

Thanks!!

lil.Tommy

How about Vancouver? and Sask (i'd love to see where the NDP would win seats with proper redistribution)

Stockholm

The Alberta maps tell me a few things:

1. When new seats are added in Alberta - a seat could easily be created in Edmonton taking in the more NDP leaning parts of Edmonton Centre and Edmonton East that could be very winnable.

2. If the "noose" around Lethbridge is tightened and riding become more purely the City of Lethbridge - it could become a target.

3. Calgary Northeast could eventually become the "Scarborough Rouge River" of calgary!

oldgoat

Great stuff, thankyou!  I would love to see Oshawa (like I'm not depressed enough already) and the devolution over the past few elections.

Stockholm

I would LOVE to see maps of Regina and Saskatoon. I think it would likely demonstrate that the NDP could easily win a few Saskatchewan seats if there were purely urban ridings in those cities (where else in canada do you have cities with populations of 300,000 having seats purely urban seats in them??)

Policywonk

dacckon wrote:

The NDP seems almost nonexistant in rural Manitoba and Sask,

 

the question is how do they connect with these communities they once held?

These maps indicate who won in a poll and what their percentage was. They say nothing about who finished second. In three or four way races it is theoretically possible to win without winning a single poll. What is of more use are district poll maps with the NDP percentage in each poll, or similar maps for larger areas.

David Young

Krago wrote:

And here's a personal favourite; a map of Windsor without a single speck of red!

Windsor - 2011 Electoral Map

Not a single speck of red to be found in South Shore-St. Margaret's either!!

 

Anonymouse

Beautiful maps. I would love to see maps New Brunswick ridings given the NDP jump to second place there.

Stockholm

One thing for sure is that just as I suspected - Regina and Saskatoon are essentially NDP cities that have been gerrymndered into having zero NDP seats. If you cut up the electoral map of Saskatchewan to have three purely urban ridings in each of Regina and Saskatoon instead of four "rurban" seats - you instantly have 5 or 6 NDP seats in Saskatchewan!

BTW: I think the only city left that we need a map for is Quebec City!

dacckon dacckon's picture

Who creates the riding zones?

 

Please don't tell me its not done independantly...

 

Stockholm

The riding boundaries are created by an in pendent commission. It's actually a pretty clean process. The NDP was seriously asleep at the switch during the last redistribution in Saskatchewan and missed a golden opportunity to scrap these absurd "rurban" tidings

Centrist

Hey Krago. Thanks for your hard work. Best maps that I continue to ever see!

KenS

It's even worse than asleep at the switch. My understanding is that Dick Proctor gets a good part of the blame for the SK boundaries. The MPs have a substantial amount of influence on the commissions for what effects their ridings. As long as they dont call for blatant gerrymandering, their voice counts for a lot. Particularly if they argue for maintaining existing boundaries or something as close to it as possible: 'maintaining the integrity of established ties between the communities, blah, blah.'

I think Dick Proctor made just such an argument- I guess out of a sense he was better off with the devil he knew.

Threads

I'm given to understand that the Alliance MPs were also arguing for the urral seats to be retained because that would be more likely to prevent the province from becoming polarised at the federal level than creating ridings that are, for the most part, strictly Saskatoon or Regina.

No, really.

nicky

Thanks much Krago. Any chance you have a map of Guelph? That is my old home town and I wd love to see how the polls I canvassed in my youth now vote.

David Young

Krago, have you thought about teaming up with Alice Funke at the Pundit's Guide web-site to provide visuals with the riding-by-riding statistical date found there?

That would be a great partnership.

Pirrip

Stockholm wrote:
The riding boundaries are created by an in pendent commission. It's actually a pretty clean process. The NDP was seriously asleep at the switch during the last redistribution in Saskatchewan and missed a golden opportunity to scrap these absurd "rurban" tidings

The 2002 commision was not independent with 2 of the 3 commissioners partisan appointments. This was, in fact, Proctor's biggest and most vocal objection to redistribution http://openparliament.ca/hansards/1681/166/only/ Bearing in mind that at the time, the NDP held only 13 seats, and had, 2 elections prior, lost party status in the house (with 9 seats), there was more than a little suspicion that the Liberals were trying to eliminate the NDP as even a marginal political force.

Krago

The original report of the last Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Saskatchewan recommended scrapping the rurban seats in Regina and Saskatchewan.  Here is their web site and proposed maps for Saskatchewan, Regina and Saskatoon.

Here's my attempt to draw 14 reasonable seats in Saskatchewan, using the 2001 Census populations.

 

lil.Tommy

If we look at the 2011 vote, and then look at those previously proposed boundaries in 2004...

The NDP would have probably won

In Saskatoon:

Idywyld (probable, it would be Netties riding),

Meewasin (would be a stronghold likely)

and Broadway (closer but still looks to be a win)

 

In Regina

Pasqua (Another stronghold)

Qu'Appelle (a battle, but in 2011 i'd give it to the NDP, strong NDP polls in the city but still a large rural area)

 

Wascana (the only battle with the Liberals, Probably Noah's riding but he might have run in Pasqua, i'd give this to Ralph, its a Goodale riding not a Liberal one)

 

Looks like the NDP is already fighting for urban/rural ridings, which only right since every other province uses that basis when possible.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2011/05/03/sk-vote-boun...

Also, look at Vancouver Centre, looks like a fight, no strong polls for any one!

Krago

My quick-and-dirty vote transpositions show these results, using the 2011 votes on the Commission's original proposed riding boundaries:

  • Broadway: CONS +5%
  • Idylwyld: NDP +10%
  • Meewasin: CONS +12%
  • Pasqua: CONS +1%
  • Qu'Appelle: CONS +16%
  • Wascana: CONS +7%

lil.Tommy

Krago wrote:

My quick-and-dirty vote transpositions show these results, using the 2011 votes on the Commission's original proposed riding boundaries:

  • Broadway: CONS +5%
  • Idylwyld: NDP +10%
  • Meewasin: CONS +12%
  • Pasqua: CONS +1%
  • Qu'Appelle: CONS +16%
  • Wascana: CONS +7%

Well i was sure off then :P wishful thinking perhaps... never pays to eyeball eh. That results of one seat would still be better than no seats in SASK

 

Stockholm

Given the population growtth in Regina and especially Saskatoon over the last 10 years - I strongly suspect that there are now enough people in each city that at the upcoming redistribution they can create three purely urban seats in each city. Its not inconceivable that the NDP could run the tables on all those urban seats and if they grab Churchill River as well the NDP could go from zero to 7/14 Sask seats in one fell swoop!

Threads

Based on the 2006 census, the boundaries commission could easily draw three urban Saskatoon-only ridings.  As far as Regina goes, their choices include

  • four urral ridings with an average Regina component of about 60%
  • three urral (sic) ridings with an average Regina component of about 80%
  • two urban Regina ridings and one 40%-Regina urral riding
  • one urban Regina riding and two urral (sic) ridings with an average Regina component of about 70%

I imagine, though, that population growth in Regina has probably brought Regina's population up to at least 2.5 Saskatchewan ridings, and I'd suspect that that would be the end of four ridings anchored on Regina.

ottawaobserver

KenS wrote:

It's even worse than asleep at the switch. My understanding is that Dick Proctor gets a good part of the blame for the SK boundaries. The MPs have a substantial amount of influence on the commissions for what effects their ridings. As long as they dont call for blatant gerrymandering, their voice counts for a lot. Particularly if they argue for maintaining existing boundaries or something as close to it as possible: 'maintaining the integrity of established ties between the communities, blah, blah.'

I think Dick Proctor made just such an argument- I guess out of a sense he was better off with the devil he knew.

It didn't originate with Dick, as I've explained here numerous times previously. He was representing the strongly-held views of a group of his constituents, led by former Moose Jaw mayor and then 2008 Palliser candidate Don Mitchell.

I had erroneously attributed this error in judgement to Proctor in a conversation with Mitchell once, and he immediately corrected me and said that he was the one (NOT Dick) who advocated that particular boundary arrangement. This conversation occurred prior to the 2008 election.

Who knows what Mitchell thinks about it all now, but I have no doubt that he will be overruled by nearly everyone else in the province this time around.

ghoris

Thanks for all this, Krago. As an amateur psephologist, these kinds of maps are gold. :)

I find the Winnipeg map very interesting, and it confirms what I suspected about the NDP losses in Winnipeg North and Elmwood-Transcona - namely that the ridings are very polarized. In Winnipeg North, the NDP did well in its areas of traditional strength east of McPhillips (ie the North End and St. John's) but got killed by Lamoureux in the west end of the riding, which includes his old provincial seat in its various iterations over the years. 

Similarly in Elmwood-Transcona, Maloway did well in the Elmwood/Concordia end of the riding (ie everything west of Lagimodiere) which includes his old provincial seat, but did relatively poorly in the Radisson/Transcona end of the riding, which is an area of traditional NDP strength.

Anonymouse

Beautiful work Krago and thanks for sharing.

WillC

Krago wrote:

(The far more exciting) Edmonton- 2011 Electoral Map

Thanks, Krago.  Does anyone know why that square of NDP support appears in Edmonton's south-west?

adma

WillC wrote:
Thanks, Krago.  Does anyone know why that square of NDP support appears in Edmonton's south-west?

Stony Plain 135 (First Nation)

adma

Oh, and I checked, and it does indeed appear (relative to earlier rumours) that Bob Rae won fewer polls than Susan Wallace in Toronto Centre--at least, aside from the advance ballots (or even including them?!?)

janfromthebruce

Krago great work. Could you do Huron-Bruce, pretty please. I know this would be valuable info as the NDP came 2nd and a provincial election is coming and it would be good know. thanks buddy!

WillC

adma wrote:

WillC wrote:
Thanks, Krago.  Does anyone know why that square of NDP support appears in Edmonton's south-west?

Stony Plain 135 (First Nation)

Thank you also, adma.  From its position on the map, it looked like either a very suburban or rural area, unexpected  supporting the NDP in Alberta.  

 

twinklestar

Good stuff, Krago. I'm not sure who you are exactly. You're not one of the map people I'm familiar with. We've been discussing poll maps again at the US Election Atlas Forum:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=137008.msg2963355 and someone posted a link here.

 

Keep up the good work.

adma

Krago wrote:

I can't say no to a happy rural NDP member... Wink

Huron-Bruce - 2011 Federal Electoral Map

Huron-Bruce - 2007 Provincial Electoral Map

and you get Stratford and Owen Sound thrown in at no extra cost!

Though it demonstrates the pitfalls of such FPTP-based maps, in that virtually *everything* is some shade of blue...

pebbles

Stockholm wrote:
The riding boundaries are created by an in pendent commission. It's actually a pretty clean process. The NDP was seriously asleep at the switch during the last redistribution in Saskatchewan and missed a golden opportunity to scrap these absurd "rurban" tidings

More importantly: they were asleep at the switch in the 1996 redistribution, which was passed down with only minor changes in the 2004 redistribution. NDP opposition to the proposed boundaries in the post-1991 census redistribution was among the dumbest moves ever made by anyone in the redistribution process.

 

pebbles

adma wrote:

Oh, and I checked, and it does indeed appear (relative to earlier rumours) that Bob Rae won fewer polls than Susan Wallace in Toronto Centre--at least, aside from the advance ballots (or even including them?!?)

In a three- or more-way race, it's actually theoretically possible to win a riding while losing every single poll.

Catchfire Catchfire's picture

Great stuff, Krago, thanks!

Pages

Topic locked