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Electoral Maps 5

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Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Will Rathika pick Scar North or Scar East to ran in I wonder. Are both winnable for the NDP?

David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

I see that Bramalea-Gore-Malton loses it's southern portion to become Brampton-Gore.

Does losing that portion help or hurt the NDP's prospects in that riding, given that they lost by just 538 votes in 2011?

 


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008
I just did a double take. Look at Toronto Centre closely. The northern boundary is Wellesley. This splits the Church Wellesley village into two halves. I don't think this will go over well. Compare to this situation with the last BC provincial redistribution: http://www.xtra.ca/public/Vancouver/Dividing_the_Davie_Village-3653.aspx Similar to the Wellesley situation, a new smaller riding was created that would include the West End but excluded blocks that were an integral part of the community. The second draft of the BC proposal fixed it.

nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

The new riding of Toronto Centre looks promising for the NDP with Rosedale being carved off into the new Mt Pleasant. For decades, a strong NDP vote south of Bloor St has been overwhelmed by Rosedale where the NDP gets minimal support. TC has had the polarity of rich and poor which has meant that Rosedale has always prevailed. Hopefully the new boundaries will be confirmed so that the new TC does have more of a community of interest.

The new St Pauls also looks promising. It loses wealthy neighbourhoods to Mt Pleasant and gains NDP areas in the west and south.

Welland would be lost on the new boundaries. the towns of Welland and Thorold wd no longer be in the same riding and are both combined with Conservative rural areas.

Oshawa is chopped up in a bizarre way. Two east-west ridings extending from the city eastward to take in parts of Durham. The south end of Oshawa has always been the NDP end of town but is now combined with Bowmanvile for obscure reasons. 

 


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Ridng by Riding has provided some detailed transpositions of votes for some of the new Quebec ridings with a promise of more to come:

GASPESIE--LES ILES:
B: 14530 - 32.6%
N: 12569 - 28.2%
L: 8587 - 19.3%
C: 7772 - 17.5%
G: 1047 - 2.4%

RIMOUSKI
N: 22271 - 37.0%
B: 20589 - 34.2%
L: 8127 - 13.5%
C: 7846 - 13.0%
G: 1351 - 2.2%

 LEVIS:

N: 19163 - 40.8%
C: 16952 - 36.1%
B: 7530 - 16.0%
L: 2537 - 5.4%
G: 801 - 1.7%

 LAC SAINT LOUIS

L: 16747 - 34.5%
N: 14616 - 30.1%
C: 13527 - 27.9%
G: 2173 - 4.5%
B: 1467 - 3.0%

http://riding-by-riding.blogspot.ca/

 

It seems he has revised his earlier projection that Lac St Louis wd have vote Conservative under the new boundaries


edmundoconnor
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Joined: Jul 7 2009

theleftyinvestor wrote:
I just did a double take. Look at Toronto Centre closely. The northern boundary is Wellesley. This splits the Church Wellesley village into two halves. I don't think this will go over well.

I had to have a look myself, as I couldn't quite believe it. You're right. That would sting if that was going to happen, since that splits up a 'community' quite dramatically. Hopefully the hearing will fix it, but it requires people getting out there to the hearings to tweak the boundaries a little more. The 519 would be in Mount Pleasant, and Crews and Tango would be in Toronto Centre, which is clearly ridiculous. I doubt many Rosedalians drop in at the 519.

If Rae has any sense of opportunism and careerism (I think he does), he would skedaddle to Mount Pleasant, where people understand him.

There is other news in the west of Toronto, though. I took a close look at the proposed boundaries for York South–Weston, and a good eastern chunk has been split between St. Paul's and Davenport. Given that the northern half of this eastern chunk has voted predominantly Liberal in the last few elections (even during 2011), this will likely help cement Mike Sullivan's hold on the riding, since the NDP vote has been clustered around Weston Road for a while now. It's going to be interesting what this means for the provincial situation, and how fast (if at all) the provincial boundaries catch up to the federal ones. The Liberal MPP needs every vote she can get, and bidding fond farewell to loyal Liberal-voting constituents in the north-east of the riding is something she will be loath to do.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

nicky wrote:

Welland would be lost on the new boundaries. the towns of Welland and Thorold wd no longer be in the same riding and are both combined with Conservative rural areas.

Oshawa is chopped up in a bizarre way. Two east-west ridings extending from the city eastward to take in parts of Durham. The south end of Oshawa has always been the NDP end of town but is now combined with Bowmanvile for obscure reasons. 

 

I don't think Welland will be a problem, it gains Fort Erie from Niagara Falls, but Ft. Erie is a pretty working class town that would likely go NDP if it found itself in a riding with an NDP incumbent as opposed to being orphaned in Niagara Falls.

As for Oshawa, the fact is the one NDP stronghold in all of Durham region is the south end of Oshawa. it is not big enough to be a riding on its own - combining it with Bowmanville is really no worse for the NDP than combining it with the more Tory parts of north Oshawa.


DaveW
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Joined: Dec 24 2008

nicky wrote:

The new riding of Toronto Centre looks promising for the NDP with Rosedale being carved off into the new Mt Pleasant. For decades, a strong NDP vote south of Bloor St has been overwhelmed by Rosedale where the NDP gets minimal support. TC has had the polarity of rich and poor which has meant that Rosedale has always prevailed. Hopefully the new boundaries will be confirmed so that the new TC does have more of a community of interest.

The new St Pauls also looks promising. It loses wealthy neighbourhoods to Mt Pleasant and gains NDP areas in the west and south.

progress all around; the Rosedale/Cabbagetown combination was always bad, like St Henri-Westmount in Montreal...

What MP can honestly represent those socio-economic extremes?


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

nicky wrote:

The new riding of Toronto Centre looks promising for the NDP with Rosedale being carved off into the new Mt Pleasant. For decades, a strong NDP vote south of Bloor St has been overwhelmed by Rosedale where the NDP gets minimal support. TC has had the polarity of rich and poor which has meant that Rosedale has always prevailed. Hopefully the new boundaries will be confirmed so that the new TC does have more of a community of interest.

In which case, let's hope that boundary is adjusted to actually be Bloor St, not Wellesley. It's a little ridiculous to ask just that little section between Bloor and Wellesley to vote with Rosedale and Mount Pleasant.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I here Hamilton gets another seat as well.

Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Brachina wrote:
I here Hamilton gets another seat as well.

Yes, its called Ancaster, but it might be more winnable for the NDP than you might think since it includes the areas around MacMaster and a chunk that used to be in Hamilton Centre in addition to some more suburban Tory-leaning areas.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

Right on, so that'd be good news to pick up Ancaster. I couldn't find it at first because I assumed it'd be call Hamilton something. Anyway I took a look at my area and my riding just shrunk to like one eighth its size! I'm in Aurora-Richmond Hill now, my former riding was way bigger then it was. It used to include Schoberg on one end all the way into Markham on the other. It now goes from Bathurst to the 407. It has expanded north and south a bit. It only went up to Bloomington before, now it goes up to Wellington. It went down south to Elginton Mills for park, with a part that sticks out further to major mack. I'm now in the same riding as the Millpond area, which is such a lovely area. I don't know how it would have faired in 2011 honestly, the change is so major. My riding uses to look like a huge dumbell, now its a tidder shape, a rectangle with a square out cropping. I'd love if it went NDP, but more likely it'll go Tory.


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

DaveW wrote:
progress all around; the Rosedale/Cabbagetown combination was always bad, like St Henri-Westmount in Montreal...

What MP can honestly represent those socio-economic extremes?

A Liberal.  (Though I'll hedge on the "honestly" part.)


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Stockholm wrote:
I don't think Welland will be a problem, it gains Fort Erie from Niagara Falls, but Ft. Erie is a pretty working class town that would likely go NDP if it found itself in a riding with an NDP incumbent as opposed to being orphaned in Niagara Falls.

As for Oshawa, the fact is the one NDP stronghold in all of Durham region is the south end of Oshawa. it is not big enough to be a riding on its own - combining it with Bowmanville is really no worse for the NDP than combining it with the more Tory parts of north Oshawa.

And I'm almost willing to suggest (on grounds of past patterns) that much like Fort Erie, Courtice and Bowmanville are more likely to incline NDPward knowing that it's a potentially "competitive" riding for them.  (And in the post-Orange Crush era, it *should* be viewed as potentially competitive.)


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Brachina wrote:

Right on, so that'd be good news to pick up Ancaster. I couldn't find it at first because I assumed it'd be call Hamilton something. Anyway I took a look at my area and my riding just shrunk to like one eighth its size! I'm in Aurora-Richmond Hill now, my former riding was way bigger then it was. It used to include Schoberg on one end all the way into Markham on the other. It now goes from Bathurst to the 407. It has expanded north and south a bit. It only went up to Bloomington before, now it goes up to Wellington. It went down south to Elginton Mills for park, with a part that sticks out further to major mack. I'm now in the same riding as the Millpond area, which is such a lovely area. I don't know how it would have faired in 2011 honestly, the change is so major. My riding uses to look like a huge dumbell, now its a tidder shape, a rectangle with a square out cropping. I'd love if it went NDP, but more likely it'll go Tory.

Though speaking of York Region, one thing that absolutely doesn't ring true with me is the riding with the presently proposed name "Oak Ridges"--sure, it technically straddles the Oak Ridges Moraine; however, the actual community which gave the Moraine its name is within Aurora-Richmond Hill, and its presence has defined previous ridings with the "Oak Ridges" name.  To shift the name westward is geographically illiterate--a name like "King-Maple" (or something more euphonious) would be more fitting...


edmundoconnor
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Joined: Jul 7 2009

So no personal names, like Quebec. Darn. I was hoping for Oshawa Broadbent.

Waterdown–Glanbrook is going to be an absolute pain to campaign in. There's one road connecting the north and eastern halves of the riding. Ugliest boundary winner, I'd say.


Robo
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Joined: Jun 1 2003

Stockholm wrote:

As for Oshawa, the fact is the one NDP stronghold in all of Durham region is the south end of Oshawa. it is not big enough to be a riding on its own - combining it with Bowmanville is really no worse for the NDP than combining it with the more Tory parts of north Oshawa.

Central Oshawa is better than Bowmanville. Even the furthest north end of Oshawa probably is better than Bowmanville. Here's a better consideration for the Commission to look at: Why is Clarington, a municipality of 84,000, split in three when it could easily be split in two? It would take a major redrawing to keep all of Clarington in one riding -- the easternmost part of Clarington seems like it will be in a riding with Port Hope and Cobourg. But it is easy to keep westernmost Clarington in one riding instead of two.

If "Oshawa Centre" (maybe "Oshawa South") was comprised of all of Oshawa south of Rossland (or maybe everything in Oshawa south of Taunton Rd and west of Harmony Rd), the the parts of Clarington split between two ridings could be united into "Oshawa-Bowmanville". For both of these ridings, the logic of community interest would be superior.


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

Underlying problem: after deducting 832,014 people given 10 northern ridings, the other 111 ridings have 12,019,807 people. That means the "southern quotient" (which only the Newfoundland and Labrador Commission was brave enough to spell out) is actually 108,287. But Toronto, with 2,615,060 people, which is 24.149 "southern quotients," somehow gets 25 ridings.

This results in many other ridings being oversized, notably:

Essex 20.00% over quotient

Windsor West 12.01% over quotient

Cambridge 19.33% over quotient

Guelph 14.57% over quotient

Kingston and the Islands 17.9% over quotient

Peterborough 11.98% over quotient

Robo wrote:
Why is Clarington, a municipality of 84,000, split in three when it could easily be split in two? It would take a major redrawing to keep all of Clarington in one riding -- the easternmost part of Clarington seems like it will be in a riding with Port Hope and Cobourg. But it is easy to keep westernmost Clarington in one riding instead of two.

If "Oshawa Centre" (maybe "Oshawa South") was comprised of all of Oshawa south of Rossland (or maybe everything in Oshawa south of Taunton Rd and west of Harmony Rd), the the parts of Clarington split between two ridings could be united into "Oshawa-Bowmanville". For both of these ridings, the logic of community interest would be superior.

I'm sure dozens of objectors will make this point.

edmundoconnor wrote:
Waterdown–Glanbrook is going to be an absolute pain to campaign in. There's one road connecting the north and eastern halves of the riding. Ugliest boundary winner, I'd say.

No way. At least Waterdown–Glanbrook is all within the Cityof Hamilton.

The hands-down winner is the bizarre Haliburton—Uxbridge, which unites 16,645 people in Toronto’s Census Metropolitan area (south Uxbridge); 33,008 people in exurban Scugog and Brock; bypassing Lindsay, 34,390 people in the rural half of Kawartha Lakes (Bobcaygeon has 3,533 people, Fenelon Falls has 2,040); 17,026 people in Haliburton County; and 7,394 in north Peterborough County.

I'd love to see the Boundaries Commission make the drive from from one end of this riding (Uxbridge) to the other (Cardiff). From Uxbridge up Highway 12 to Beaverton, along Glenarm Road to Fenelon Falls and continuing on to Bobcaygeon, up 121 to Minden, and on through Haliburton to Cardiff. Only 205 km, a mere 3 hours and 4 minutes drive says Mapquest.  Okay, if you go by highway 45 to Coboconk and on through Kinmount you could get to Cardiff in "only" 2 hours 23 minutes, 165 km, by bypassing every population centre east of Beaverton.


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

Wilf Day wrote:

No way. The hands-down winner is the bizarre Haliburton—Uxbridge, which unites 16,645 people in Toronto’s Census Metropolitan area (south Uxbridge); 33,008 people in exurban Scugog and Brock; bypassing Lindsay, 34,390 people in the rural half of Kawartha Lakes (Bobcaygeon has 3,533 people, Fenelon Falls has 2,040); 17,026 people in Haliburton County; and 7,394 in north Peterborough County.

I'd love to see the Boundaries Commission make the drive from from one end of this riding (Uxbridge) to the other (Cardiff). From Uxbridge up Highway 12 to Beaverton, along Glenarm Road to Fenelon Falls and continuing on to Bobcaygeon, up 121 to Minden, and on through Haliburton to Cardiff. Only 205 km, a mere 3 hours and 4 minutes drive says Mapquest.  Okay, if you go by highway 45 to Coboconk and on through Kinmount you could get to Cardiff in "only" 2 hours 23 minutes, 165 km, by bypassing every population centre east of Beaverton.

Wow, Uxbridge gets some severe whiplash here. There does appear to be some concern in local media:

http://www.thepost.ca/2012/08/28/proposed-electoral-boundary-changes-wou...

I think the meetings will definitely have an effect on the final boundaries. Once everyone is finished complaining about the details that don't make sense, they'll have to shift everything else to match.


TheNewTeddy
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Joined: Sep 3 2011

Hello, I'm the admin of RidingByRiding and I am quite willing to take any request for transposition; though, it might take a while to do them if I get a lot of them.

 

I am also heading out to Oshawa on the 13th of November to let them know just how terrible the Uxbridge riding is. 


TheNewTeddy
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Joined: Sep 3 2011

I'd also like to run an idea past some people, in particular, that Far North Ontario

http://www.mnr.gov.on.ca/en/Business/FarNorth/2ColumnSubPage/266506.html

Be assigned it's own riding. 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

adma wrote:

Brachina wrote:

Right on, so that'd be good news to pick up Ancaster. I couldn't find it at first because I assumed it'd be call Hamilton something. Anyway I took a look at my area and my riding just shrunk to like one eighth its size! I'm in Aurora-Richmond Hill now, my former riding was way bigger then it was. It used to include Schoberg on one end all the way into Markham on the other. It now goes from Bathurst to the 407. It has expanded north and south a bit. It only went up to Bloomington before, now it goes up to Wellington. It went down south to Elginton Mills for park, with a part that sticks out further to major mack. I'm now in the same riding as the Millpond area, which is such a lovely area. I don't know how it would have faired in 2011 honestly, the change is so major. My riding uses to look like a huge dumbell, now its a tidder shape, a rectangle with a square out cropping. I'd love if it went NDP, but more likely it'll go Tory.

Though speaking of York Region, one thing that absolutely doesn't ring true with me is the riding with the presently proposed name "Oak Ridges"--sure, it technically straddles the Oak Ridges Moraine; however, the actual community which gave the Moraine its name is within Aurora-Richmond Hill, and its presence has defined previous ridings with the "Oak Ridges" name.  To shift the name westward is geographically illiterate--a name like "King-Maple" (or something more euphonious) would be more fitting...

I was basically thinking the same thing. Oak Ridges the community is right in the heart of Aurora-Richmond Hill, which only gets silvers,of Aurora proper and Richmond Hill. Your ideas on names make way more sense. Still the name is less important then if its,winnable by the NDP. I hope so.

Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Assuming that this proposed "Oshawa-Bowmanville" riding gets created - all of sudden the looming byelection in Durham takes on a new importance for the NDP. Durham as a whole is probably unwinnable for the NDP but the riding includes that Bowmanville area that is slated to be linked to south Oshawa for the next election. The byelection would be a good opportunity for the NDP to get a head start on building up support in Bowmanville with an eye to it being part of a highly winnable riding in 2015!


StarSuburb
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Joined: Mar 13 2009

edmundoconnor wrote:

 It's going to be interesting what this means for the provincial situation, and how fast (if at all) the provincial boundaries catch up to the federal ones.

Does the Ont. government have to introduce new legislation to update the ridings, or do they roll over automatically? I'd be curious to take the poll-by-poll results of the last provincial election and put them on the new map, I wonder if the new GTA suburban seats would have been enough to give the Liberals a majority. And if York South-Weston becomes and NDP gain, would losing The Annex have pushed Thompson over the top in Trin-Spa?

 


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Thanks for the offer Teddy!!

I would really like to see the transposed numbers for Toronto Centre, which is my riding.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

StarSuburb wrote:

Does the Ont. government have to introduce new legislation to update the ridings, or do they roll over automatically? I'd be curious to take the poll-by-poll results of the last provincial election and put them on the new map, I wonder if the new GTA suburban seats would have been enough to give the Liberals a majority. And if York South-Weston becomes and NDP gain, would losing The Annex have pushed Thompson over the top in Trin-Spa?

In answer to your questions:

1. Yes, the Ontario government has to introduce legislation to update the provincial ridings and to have them conform to the federal map (or not). it is NOT automatic.

2. Its hard to say if the new map would have given the Ontario Liberals a majority - its true that it would create some new Liberal seats in 905-land, but it would also create some new seats in more exurban Tory areas.

3. I am about 99% certain that York South-Weston would have gone NDP provincially under these proposed boundaries. It was a very narrow NDP loss and the area being shifted out of the riding is heavily Liberal.

4. I don't think the NDP would have lost T-S provincially with these boundaries. First of all Marchese didn't do as well in the Annex as one might think (though her did carry it). Second of all T-S also loses everything between Yonge and Avenue Rd - and that area is full of Liberal-voting luxury condos! so its a bit of a wash


TheNewTeddy
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Joined: Sep 3 2011

nicky wrote:

Thanks for the offer Teddy!!

I would really like to see the transposed numbers for Toronto Centre, which is my riding.

I will add this, Mt Pleasent, and St. Pauls to my list (as doing all 3 at once will be fairly easy) but please make further requests on my blog so I do not miss them.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I can't seem to find Teddy's blog.

Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
I found it :D

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