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Electoral Maps 5

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adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

kropotkin1951 wrote:

adma wrote:

Centrist wrote:
The only other NDP potential would be Surrey-Newton, but based upon the new boundaries, the Libs would have won that seat in 2011, believe it or not.

With Sukh Dhaliwal's peculiar ethno-bloc out of the picture, it should be much easier, I presume.

WTF

Last time I looked every major party in BC had a significant South Asian constituency and presence.  What about the white ethno-bloc how do you think it is effecting the results?

 

All I meant was that in a climate when the federal Grits in BC were imploding everywhere but Van/NorthWestVan/Whistler, Sukh Dhaliwal somehow survived through a disproportionately super-galvanized South Asian vote--with him (or at least his incumbency) gone and presuming his party's still in the basement, the Liberal vote should be ripe for the picking, perhaps most likely by the NDP.

As far as "white ethno-bloc" goes: that's the reason why Dhaliwal was pretty firmly in third in the North Delta portion of his riding.


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

In the event of a crushing BCNDP majority this year, another consideration is - a large number of experienced BC Liberal politicians will be out looking for work, and potentially running for both the federal Liberals and Conservatives. In fact a friend of mine has speculated Kevin Falcon will want one of those new Surrey ridings as a Conservative.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

adma wrote:

All I meant was that in a climate when the federal Grits in BC were imploding everywhere but Van/NorthWestVan/Whistler, Sukh Dhaliwal somehow survived through a disproportionately super-galvanized South Asian vote--with him (or at least his incumbency) gone and presuming his party's still in the basement, the Liberal vote should be ripe for the picking, perhaps most likely by the NDP.

As far as "white ethno-bloc" goes: that's the reason why Dhaliwal was pretty firmly in third in the North Delta portion of his riding.

Yes, especially since the new NDP incumbent Jini Sims is South Asian herself and is undoubtedly expanding her support among people from her community who might have voted for Dhaliwal last time because he was the incumbent.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

theleftyinvestor wrote:

In fact a friend of mine has speculated Kevin Falcon will want one of those new Surrey ridings as a Conservative.

Is it too much to hope that he might retire from politics? Cry


kropotkin1951
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Joined: Jun 6 2002

felixr wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:

In fact a friend of mine has speculated Kevin Falcon will want one of those new Surrey ridings as a Conservative.

Is it too much to hope that he might retire from politics? Cry

Just like the players in the Harris government who didn't retire Falcon likely will run federally. He and Harper have the same CEO's on speed dial. These guys want power and have the money backing them because we all know who they wield their power on behalf of.


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

Considering Harper's plum appointment for Gordo, I would not be surprised if his party welcomes the Campbell-ites in with open arms. And those of Gordo's losers who prefer the colour red will be welcomed with open arms by their soul sister Joyce Murray. 

Margaret MacDiarmid (Vancouver-Fairview) has a strong chance of losing her seat. I could imagine her making a run for Vancouver-Granville either as a Lib or Con.


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

Ralph Goodale tweets "Conservatives in Sask once again using illicit robocalls, this time to slander the work of their own electoral boundaries Commission." What's that about?


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

Oy vey. I guess the incumbents are getting anxious.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Goodale will be 66 if the next election occurs in the fall of 2015.

Wanna bet if he thinks the new boundary will be his downfall, he'll grab his parliamentary pension and run?

The same with Heddy Fry, who'll be 74 in 2015.

Lawrence MacCaulay will be 69.

Rae will be 67.

Garneau will be 66.

McCallum will be 65.

Except for MacCaulay in P.E.I., all of their ridings will be affected by redistribution.

 


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

David Young wrote:

Goodale will be 66 if the next election occurs in the fall of 2015.

Wanna bet if he thinks the new boundary will be his downfall, he'll grab his parliamentary pension and run?

The same with Heddy Fry, who'll be 74 in 2015.

Lawrence MacCaulay will be 69.

Rae will be 67.

Garneau will be 66.

McCallum will be 65.

Except for MacCaulay in P.E.I., all of their ridings will be affected by redistribution.

Goodale is happy. He loses a little rural territory. The new boundaries give him a transposed majority of 2233, up from 1532.

Fry's candidacy won't, surely, depend on the boundaries? Although Vancouver Centre loses some Liberal voters to the new Granville riding, it's still a Liberal (transposed) seat, I expect. 


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

The new boundaries in Sakatchewan are very good for the NDP. The new all-urban riding of Regina-Lewvan would be a perfect place for Noah Evanchuk to run since he lost so narrowly last time in palliser which was a "rurban" riding larded with very conservative rural areas. In Saskatoon, the new riding of Saskatoon West is drawn to be a safe NDP seat and i here there is a brilliant woman named Nicole White who would be a great candidate there.


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

Stockholm wrote:
In Saskatoon, the new riding of Saskatoon West is drawn to be a safe NDP seat and i here there is a brilliant woman named Nicole White who would be a great candidate there.

On the Commission's first proposal, it was Saskatoon Centre—University that was the NDP seat, with a transposed majority of 204 votes. Saskatoon West was Conservative by 1,639 votes, due to the Conservative voters in that part of Saskatoon--Wanuskewin.

The final Report has different boundaries which certainly make West look a lot better. I hope both are now winnable.

Even Saskatoon—Grasswood has cut the old Blackstrap Conservative majority of 7,511 down to 3,319 in the first proposal. The final Report is very similar. Could be winnable?

By the way, does anyone know if PollMaps.ca is going to update their transpositions soon?


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Blunt Objects has analyzed the new rediribution reports for New Brunswick, Saskatchewan and part of BC. Handy poll maps are provided.

http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/

Athough no actual vote transpositions are given it is interesting to consider the changes WRT to two three-way marginals.

Moncton, which became much more Conservative with the initial proposal, now sheds some Conservative suburbs to the west and regains many opposition polls in Dieppe.

Vancouver Granville on the initial proposal would have gone Conservative narrowly over the NDP with the Liberals close behind. It now exchanges a belt of heavily NDP polls to Kingsway in return for some heavily Conservative polls from Vancouver South. I suspect it will now be difficult for the NDP to win.


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Stockholm wrote:

The new boundaries in Sakatchewan are very good for the NDP. The new all-urban riding of Regina-Lewvan would be a perfect place for Noah Evanchuk to run since he lost so narrowly last time in palliser which was a "rurban" riding larded with very conservative rural areas. In Saskatoon, the new riding of Saskatoon West is drawn to be a safe NDP seat and i here there is a brilliant woman named Nicole White who would be a great candidate there.

So are these new Sask. boundaries definitely going to be implemented then? I thought I read somewhere that these had to go to a Parliamentary committee and that it could choose to adopt the minority report which would preserve the old "rurban" split ridings instead?


robbie_dee
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Joined: Apr 20 2001

Actually forget it I found an article that I think answers my question: Global News

Quote:
The parliamentary committee will hear from MPs who object to the proposed changes, likely in early March, then draft a report for Elections Canada. Lukiwski says he believes all of Saskatchewan's Conservative MPs will object. Elections Canada will send the report back to the Saskatchewan boundaries commission for final changes, if any. The commission doesn't have to make any more changes if it doesn't want to.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

I'm also thinking in terms of age, Wilf.

Do you think any of these M.P.s would enjoy the thought of being in the third-place party again after the next election and facing at least another four years untill the Liberals have any hope of being in a position to vie for power again?

Not if they can retire and enjoy their obscene parliamentary pensions, I'd bet!

They can use the excuse of the new riding boundaries as a signal 'It's time for me to go!' and laugh all the way to the bank!

I can see the NDP being in contention for the three new Saskatoon ridings and the other two Regina ridings now, plus Wascana if Goodale does retire.

Let's hope they get their candidates nominated early.

 


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

I'd like to see the quantitative numbers on Vancouver-Granville. The image at Blunt Objects is deceptive as the huge swaths of blue are mostly low-density residential areas. There is also the effect that Lib/NDP swing voters preferred whichever party was likelier to beat Conservatives in each of the areas that became Van-Gran, so there is really no telling what'll happen there in the next election.


Wilf Day
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Joined: Oct 31 2002

David Young wrote:
I can see the NDP being in contention for the three new Saskatoon ridings and the other two Regina ridings now, plus Wascana if Goodale does retire.

Let's hope they get their candidates nominated early.

Plus, of course, Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River, where the NDP was very close in 2011 and should win in 2015 anyway, plus the new boundaries look like helping a little.

All of which assumes no general trend to the NDP. With strong local candidates and a good NDP swing, Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan and Prince Albert are not impossible.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Has there been any indication that Lawrence Joseph would be up to running again in D.M.C.R., especially if the new riding boundaries make it look that much better for the NDP?

 


TheArchitect
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Joined: Sep 15 2011

theleftyinvestor wrote:

In the event of a crushing BCNDP majority this year, another consideration is - a large number of experienced BC Liberal politicians will be out looking for work, and potentially running for both the federal Liberals and Conservatives. In fact a friend of mine has speculated Kevin Falcon will want one of those new Surrey ridings as a Conservative.

Falcon lives in Cloverdale—Langley.  (His provincial seat is called Surrey—Cloverdale.)  That will be a fairly safe Conservative seat with no incumbent MP from any party (assuming Mark Warawa runs in Fort Langley—Aldergrove).  I'd say it's very likely that Falcon will run for the Conservatives there.


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

TheArchitect wrote:

Falcon lives in Cloverdale—Langley.  (His provincial seat is called Surrey—Cloverdale.)  That will be a fairly safe Conservative seat with no incumbent MP from any party (assuming Mark Warawa runs in Fort Langley—Aldergrove).  I'd say it's very likely that Falcon will run for the Conservatives there.

Nicely spotted.

Although it would be ironic if Kevin Falcon were sitting in the federal Conservative benches while his peers get up and loudly exclaim "blah blah NDP's billion dollar carbon tax"...


pebbles
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Joined: Jul 3 2004

The latest from SK. CP wire copy:

OTTAWA - The federal Conservative party is acknowledging it commissioned a so-called "push poll" in the Prairies warning would-be voters that changes to their electoral boundaries would undermine "Saskatchewan values."

Read more here.

In case you were wondering if the Harper Conservatives can get any sleazier... they can.

Please tell me progressive individuals and groups will mobilize against this crap?


6079_Smith_W
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Joined: Jun 10 2010

I'm waiting for the radio clip this morning to get posted - a Boundaries Commission member's masterful  smack down of Stephen Harper.

Refering to Harper's comments in the house yesterday about 75 percent opposition to the proposed changes: "If someone were to say that, it would be an untruth"

And for some reason they seem to be fucking up royally in the damage control department. Maybe they just assume it doesn't matter, which is why they let Tom Lukiwski stick handle it.

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/Responsibility+deceptive+Saskatchewan...

 


JKR
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Joined: Jan 15 2005
Why aren't the Conservatives being criticized for gerrymandering? What's happening in Saskatchewan is a blatant example of how political parties discard the tenets of democracy and gerrymander electoral boundaries in order to benefit themselves undemocratically. Electoral boundaries should be set up with the objective of insuring that different groups in society are as fairly and accurately represented in Parluament as is possible. Setting up electoral boundaries that allow one political party to win almost every riding with roughly half the votes or even less, should be universally recognized as being illegitimate. And of course the best solution to the problem of gerrymandering is proportional representation.

edmundoconnor
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Joined: Jul 7 2009

Harper's comments about the boundaries are telling. He's not going to oppose the new boundaries when they come before the House. Sure, he'll lose a few seats in Saskatchewan, but those MPs are a little too obviously socially conservative for the party. Besides, the Tory thinking is that whatever they lose on the SK swings, they'll more than mak up for on the Ontario, Alberta, and BC roundabouts. Why have headline-generating MPs, when you can add a few more trained seals?


JKR
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Joined: Jan 15 2005
The Conservatives do seem to be benefitting from the redistribution being done in Ontario, BC, and, Alberta, so the loss of 2 or 3 seats in Saskatchewan shouldn't be disturbing them as much at it apparently has. But Harper aggressively fights for as much advantage as possible, within legal boundaries or otherwise. If the next election is decided by a couple of seats, he doesn't want a couple of lost seats he could have kept in Saskatchewan to cost him power. So this aggresive campaign to keep the rural-urban seats in Saskatchewan makes sense given the Conservatives take no prisoners style of politics. But the Conservatives must be encouraged overall by how redistribution is enhancing their chances of winning yet another phony FPTP election. According to pollmaps.ca, if people vote in 2015 as they did in 2011, in Ontario, BC, and Alberta, the Liberal seat total will stay the same, the NDP will lose 4 seats, and the Conservatives will gain a whopping 27 seats. Luckily, with FPTP, small swings in popularity can result in huge swings in seats. Once again the swing in voting patterns in Ontario will go a long way in determining the outcome in 2015 but all things being equal, the Conservatives' chances of winning another phony FPTP election seem to be enhanced by the current redistribution.

adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

Frankly, the advice I'd offer the Cons is: deft campaigning can overcome a "gerrymander" a lot of the time.  And they can look to their own record as proof.

 

And who knows, maybe a healthy-once-again federal Grit party can split the left-vote in Lewvan and keep the Cons in power there, too.  (No, I'm not advocating.  Just telling the Cons to "quit their whining".)


Lord Palmerston
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Joined: Jan 25 2004

It looks like we're going have to wait until next week for the revised Ontario and Quebec maps...


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

Ontario and Quebec are out.

Looks like an interesting solution was created for the "Toronto Centre problem" that saw the Church St village split up.

1) Toronto Centre is reduced by slicing off the extreme southern end, which allows it to go almost all the way up to Bloor. I presume it's now safer NDP territory.

2) Rosedale is still attached to a significant chunk of downtown, but instead of making that riding go all the way up to Mount Pleasant, it instead annexes the entire north half of Trinity-Spadina above Dundas St. This new riding is University-Rosedale.

3) Old Trinity-Spadina south of Dundas, plus the area lopped off the south of Toronto Centre, minus the area bounded by Dundas-Bay-Front-Yonge, is now Spadina-Fort York.

As you may have figured out, Trinity-Spadina is no more. Where will Olivia Chow run if she stays in federal politics? With her riding (and Chinatown) split, has either half become Liberal-friendly enough to tip the scales?


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

The new downtown Toronto ridings are disappointing. The initial porposals, as some of us observed, were about as good as the NDP could have expected. Trinity-Spadina remained safe and Toronto Centre and St Pauls would have gone NDP by small margins.

Without adding up the numbers I would think the NDP wd still have a small margin in the new Toronto Centre but St Pauls becomes unwinnable. The new University-Rosedale riding is a monstrosity similar to the old Toronto Centre. Good NDP areas in the Annex will be swamped by Rosedale just like Rosedale used to swamp everything south of Bloor.

The new Spadina riding becomes essentially condoland along the water. Although Chow wd have won it, Marchese wd have lost it in the  provincial election.

So we go from one safe NDP seat and two close wins to one marginal NDP seat and one close win.

I expect the Liberals out-generalled us over the final boundary report.


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