Elizabeth MEEEE wants a seat

I want a seat too. Doesn't make it national news.

If we actually could identify a winnable seat for her that would get my interest.

As you know from my previous posts, I'd actually like it if the Greens could elect someone and May might be even be a worthwhile MP. She is not my choice of candidate and I would not vote for her or support her in my riding even if I don't mind the idea of her in another riding any more than any other party that I do not support-- In fact, I'd prefer her to a Liberal or Conservative. I have seen her speak on issues I care about at times and would welcome that.

But her aspiring to have a seat is no more unrealistic than Layton's becoming PM (theoretically possible but a long shot). I supported Layton's campaign to be PM and so I can respect hers to be an MP. I can also see why that would be a good thing for her party.

Still it is a non-news story that she would like a seat and her party agrees unless there is some idea of a seat she could be successful in and I can't think of a single one.

I see it as an annoucement, by her, that she won the war over her stated hatred of Green Party members and that they now all have Stockholm Syndrome!

Perhaps one of the Green MPs in a safe seat could resign and make way .... whoops I forgot, there are no Green MPs!

The strange thing is that the most obvious riding (IMHO) for her to run in never seems to appear on the list. She has lived in Ottawa her entire adult life and on top of that Ottawa is where the national press corps is based so there is a guarantee of more publicity and there sits rightwing thug and for Minister AGAINST the Environment John Baird in Ottawa West-Nepean. Why doesn't she run there???

The story got covered because May held the press briefing in Hy's Steakhouse, which is now basically the unofficial Press Club.  Something to do with Mohammed and mountains when it comes to the Press Gallery.  A glass of wine there costs $12 or thereabouts.

May's communications have been a joke lately, always at least 3 days behind the story and with nothing new to add.  She has been under a lot of internal pressure after it was revealed that she didn't even spent the limit in her own riding last time, after apparently sucking so many resources out of other ridings in order to win there, and of course her strategic voting comments ... and then the More magazine interview containing the quotes about how she didn't like people in her party.

Green members on this board have as much as confirmed that she'll face a leadership challenge next time around, but the best way for her to beat that is to get a seat.

My question about Benmergei is how long he'll last.  Greg Morrow from Democratic Space didn't last more than 4 months, and they've had constant churn in staff over there since the last election.

The Hy's thing will work once (although people took it as a bit of a gimmick).  Let's wait and see what she does next.

What happened to Greg Morrow of Democratic Space? Why leave?

Stock said John Baid is the Minister AGAINST the Environment- he keeps that title.

And Greg Morrow is just one of many who have fallen off the merry May turnover carousel. 

I was wondering if Ralph Benmergui noticed the staff longevity record.

Does anyone have any theories as to why May doesn't run against John Baird as opposed to all these other quixotic ridings she seems to be considering?

By who?

Sorry, I stepped away for awhile.  Greg Morrow was referred to by Elizabeth May, in her campaign post-mortem email that got leaked, as having been a key member on their campaign committee.  After the election he was announced as their National Campaign Chair or Campaign Strategist or something.  Four months later I read on a Green blog that he had resigned.

For the record, I think Democratic Space was a great piece of work and valuable resource, but I just questioned his call on Central Nova.  You could say he was right in the end, but he did not apply his criteria consistently to that one riding and came up with a pretty self-serving methodology of how the Liberal vote there would be distributed ... in retrospect, now that we know his party colours.  Were his site and voteforenvironment.ca factors in changing things on the ground in Central Nova?  We'll never know.

So, again, why is Ottawa West-Nepean not being considered. It strikes me as a good place for her to run - she lives there and the national media would find it easy to cover - what's not to like?

I think staying in London North Centre or switching to Ottawa West would have been by far her best choices in 2007.

But she has painted herself into a corner that she has to choose the best shot she has at winning. It shouldn't have come to that, because the chances of her winning the next election anywhere were not very good. It should have been a riding where she had as good a chance as possible, and could do the most for party building whether or not she won.

She's never been cut out for party building anyway, and now she really needs to win. So if the odds are long, its just a question of where is the best place for the hail mary pass. Without going into the reasons why, I can see that Ottawa West would not fit the bill.

Not that it really matters, but for what its worth, I think she sold her house in Ottawa. [Or did she just put it up for sale?]

I would like the NDP to beat Peter MacKay in Central Nova too.  I'd love to see that arrogant brat go down.  They placed a strong 2nd on 2 occasions, although it might be something which is just out of reach to achieve.  It would need to happen in an election in which the Conservatives are falling nationally.  There's also the problem of splitting the vote between several parties.  If the non-MacKay voters (who are the majority in Central Nova since he never wins by a majority) want him out, they have to come behind one candidate the way they did in Edmonton-Strathcona to get rid of Rahim Jaffer.

My understanding is that the NDP did rather well in the provincial seats within Central Nova, especially in Pictou.  They would be the obvious party to rally around if Liberals wanted to follow that strategy.

Get a grip stock there was a reason why it almost went Liberal. And SGI is of consequence to the NDP.

Saanich-Gulf Island is still a high ranking target seat for the NDP- despite the debacle last time.

In my opinion, her best shot is a two way race between the Libs and Conservatives, and where the NDP is marginal or can be marginalized.

I don't think she wants to run against an NDP or Liberal incumbent or strong candidate, for different reasons. Against the NDP, despite the fact of probably pulling votes as much from the Liberals, she has a hard row to hoe [think Central Nova]. And she does not want to harm a Liberal. Which I think is where Bruce Grey Owen Sound comes in. But as well as the Greens have done there, there is a lot of skepticism about whether it is the most likely shot for May to win. 

My hunch is that she will pay attention to their polling this time around, but that if there is any rational basis on which she can hang choosing BGOS, that will be it.

Well Saanich-Gulf Island one is - although the libs came second last time out there is a strong NDP constituency and hence why they had to take out the NDP candidate in 2008 (or he took out himself since he too was a previous Green with a shady past).Only the NDP has held this riding beyond a con.

This riding has elected the following Members of Parliament:

• 1988-1993: Lynn Hunter - New Democratic Party
• 1993-1997: Jack Frazer - Reform
• 1997-present: Gary Lunn - Reform (1997-2000), Canadian Alliance (2000-2003), Conservative (2003-present)

The riding is noted as being one of the most favourable for the Green Party of Canada, giving the Greens their strongest individual riding performance in a federal general election ever in 2004, although they have never won this or any other seat and finished a distant fourth in 2006 after running a less vigorous campaign than in 2004. Despite the usually close vote between the various parties, the Canadian Alliance, Reform and Conservative parties have consistently won here for the past decade. Since 1953, the NDP was the only non-conservative party to win the riding.

If I see Alexis MacDonald at the federal NDP Convention in Halifax in August, I will definitely try to get her to think about running against Peter MacKay in Central Nova one more time, especially given the fact that there was a tremendous shift in voting patterns on June 9th in the provincial election:

            2003 (P)  2004 (F)  2006 (F)  2006 (P)   2008 (F)  2009 (P)

PC         16636      16376      17134     15183      18240      11557

NDP         9677        9986      13836     12398        7659     17920

LIB        10416      10470      10377       7431             -        5844

GR            333        1015         671         564      12620         646

IND           560             -          124          20          623             -

Methinks Peter MacKay would not be very favourable to another election soon!

Stay tuned!

Ya, and Lynn Hunter did a lot more for her constituents than all the others combined, but fell victim to a smear campaign.  The last NDP candidate, Gary Holman, only fell short by about 250 votes last time.  The main reason the Cons almost always win is because north Saanich-Sidney is strongly conservative and has more votes than all the Gulf islands put together.   I was surprised the NDP came so close, but then the local economy is suffering too.

Two things-one, a vote for a Liberal is not necessary a vote against the neo-cons as they support pretty much the same policies now, at least in regards to small issues like foreign policy and economics.  Second, theres no evidence that the Liberals have ever recipocated on such strategic voting, let alone shown a willingness to work with the NDP for any longer than is expedient.  When Paul Martin asked NDP voters for their support first time, saying "we still believe in the same things" the result was NDPers losing to Liberals where the Cons were running third and Conservatives sneaking up the middle in at least thirteen seats West of Ontario where the NDp was the main competition, probably more nationally.  Result, the Cons gained more than they lost but a few more Liberals did get elected.  But Martin's been around long enough to know the average voter is only informed on the national numbers, not the local races, as he also knows the main threat to the neo- Liberal "alternative" is on their left flank.

That was a shame, and that they did that to someone who did not deserve it, was beyond beyond, moreover, the NDP needs to start not being the victim in these phoney smear campaigns and start saying; "look, we are not going to get into your smear campaign and fabrications, let the voters decide" and then walk away.

Did i address those? No!

Huguette Allen is one of the party's critics, and has worked that riding for several elections now.

I would be interested to know how the controversy over the run-of-the-river independent power projects in BC is affecting the federal Green Party's chances in ridings such as this one, and the two Kootenays seats (East Kootenay and BC Southern Interior), if anyone can provide some local background on the fallout from the last provincial campaign.

Another consideration is the varying ways that different ridings may react to a parachute candidate. While May was able to create a rather convoluted fantasy about having roots in Central Nova - it is clear that she has no connection whatsoever to the Okanagan or to Saanich or to Owen Sound-Grey Bruce. My impression is that in some areas of the country parachute candidates are no big deal and that in other areas, it would be a bigger deal.

We also know that any Liberal deals with May are now null and void. They learned their lesson when that scheme backfired and the Green Party ended up taking more votes from the Liberals than they did from the NDP - so I think that whereever May runs, the LIberals and the NDP in that riding will run very vigorous campaigns. If she could be crushed in Central Nova when there was no Liberal on the ballot and Liberals were being instructed to vote for her - its hard to see how she can win anywhere when all the other partries are running candidates.

To the extent that the so-called greens did relatively well in such ridings as Okanagan-Shuswap, Owen Sound and Guelph it was probably largely because they had local candidates with a personal following and a long history in those places. Its an open question how many people who voted green last time would do so again just to satisfy Elizabeth MEEEEEEEEE's latest delusion of grandeur.

There was never any "smear campaign" against Lynn Hunter. I think she was referring to what happened to Julian West.

She better hope this lawsuit is not successful maybe?

http://www.canada.com/story_print.html?id=ee1ac7e3-c719-45ea-bb9b-97b9fb45dc4a&sponsor=

Many are working to have Frank De Jong take over the leadership of the Green Party

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_de_Jong

So things will change 

And soon I hope !

Actually there was, but you wouldn't likley have heard it as it was too ridiculous for even CanWest to run.  When I first moved out here there was a rumour circulating that she planned to tax live stands of trees, which was a complete fabrication.  Didn't matter though as it gave a covenient excuse for certain locals to log their property and try and subdivide for sale (succesfully in most cases after more conservative Trustees started getting elected), using the usual Island Trust loophole of private property being exempt from its strict conservation rules.  (beyond island-to-island bylaws)  

Maybe calling it a whisper campaign would be more accurate but still an underhanded smear in my books.  Maybe would have lost anyhow, but the centre-right in BC was only beginning to come together again and it certainly didn't help, making her look like a "woolley headed" lefty, as they like to call em back then.

t help.

You know that would be an excellent idea, but I imagine if invited by the local Green Tories theyd feel a bit constrained in what they said publically.  Good to know that you are indeed a fellow left-of centrist, presumably of the more free thinking school; my intuition isn't always working at a hundred percent online.  Or off, really.   

Geez, Stockholm, if all you can do is nitpick after I step away for awhile then at least try something abit interesting.  I call it all Canwest now, though technically its Canwest Global, before it was basically CTV and BCTV and another affilated island station, which did a switch of another station with what used to be called CKVU going back to the seventies, because another Vancouver Island station now called VI came on before being bought up itself by another due to low ratings.  Or something like that.  Believe me now?  I live out here and I have no reason to lie about such trivia.

*More thread drift but  did you come up with the term "Tories with Composters" on your own?  If you did then you might be one of the very few people in recorded history to actually be identified as the one who first "coined" a phrase.  It seems to be spreading.

I didn't mean to be nitpicky, but just to close off this segway about Lynn Hunter. Let's keep in mind that she won very narrowly in the 1988 election which was an NDP landslide in BC with the party winning 19 out of 32 seats and her win at the time was regarded as a bit of an upset since Saanich-Gulf Islands was not generally seen as a top tier winnable seat for the NDP. The 1993 election was a total fiasco for the NDP with them dropping from 19 seats to 2! when you had seats like Vancouver East and Skeena falling to unknown Liberals and Reformatories. Given that political context, Hunter could have been the subject of the most glowing and fawning media coverage in the world and she still would have been flushed down the toilet by a large margin.

Its a shame that DOCTOR PROFESSOR Keith Martin (who seems inexplicably popular locally - even though I find the sound of his voice akin to fingernails down a chalk board!) didn't lose to that Tory last October (I think he won by 20 votes or something). If that seat were Tory held it was would extremely winnable for the NDP - but as loing as the unctuous DOCTOR PROFESSOR (who incidentally claims to be a Liberal but is a champion of privatized health care and wants to scrap human rights commissions) is there its hard to dislodge him.

Keith Martin is a good MP overall.  I think he's gone through a valuable evolution over the years.  He started out as a Reform MP but saw the error of his ways and became more progressive and became a Liberal MP.  If he had stayed in Reform he would have been expected to be anti-gay and SSM but he became liberated from that party and became pro-gay and SSM.

He wants to Scrap the Human Rights Commission...he wants Privatized Health Care...

Probably doesn't believe in Evolution. You should check before writing that. 

He wants to SCRAP the Human Rights Commission, He wants to Privatize Health care.....

Liberals will accept anyone and say they are progressive, as long as they sign that card.

Keith Martin is also pushing for decriminalization of marijuana and more rational harm-reduction drug policies.

Thanks 0-0, pretty scarey eh?  :)  It's hard to explain just how bad things are out here now, to those who at least get a little left-liberalism in TorStar or CBC central -even the Globe&Mail is better than our Sun and Province--Victoria's Times Colonist somewhat better- and probably why we have a rep for hard ball politics here.   Our conservative opponents aren't "red Tories" like old Bill Davis or Flora McDonald but pure Mike Harris-Stephen Harper ideologues, going all the way back to Bible Bill Aberhart himself.  The moderate centre was never strong on the right and the right has only gotten stronger.  Wasn't always so bad when there were at least a few genuine leftists allowed to work at Pac Press, CTV and other Thompson holdings, and some degree of journalistic integrity in the editorial room.

Stockholm exclaims, "Ralph Benmergui??!!" I mention & welcome him as part of remarks at http://www.greenparty.ca/blogs/930/2009-06-25/i-would-have-said-no-ill-f... .

Maybe if remind's "mother, if alive would be having a fit, she loved Benmergui!", remind should do some rethinking about Green politics.

Meeeethinks that some of you who must have been watching & commenting on politics for as long as you have would discount the meeee factor, even the do-gooder factor, as in, egoism or altruism or neither or both should be irrelevant or at least secondary to what's being proposed and talked about.

If you read to the end of the link I offered you'd see that someone of note has less of a problem with Eeee than some of you. "Ottawa West-Nepean. Why doesn't she run there???", more exclamatory from Stockholm, but at least a good question, and while I bet Eliz. would do well against the rightwing thug, that riding since its start has been Lib/Con bastion, it would make no sense.

In case you are interested, a couple of other recent items on a GPC campaign and a longer term view are at http://www.greenparty.ca/blogs/2619/2009-05-19/questions-green-party-s-e... and just after at http://www.greenparty.ca/blogs/2619/2009-05-19/questions-green-party-s-e... .

And "the More magazine interview [also] contain[ed] quotes about how [her interlocutors] didn't like people in [their parties]" either. ottawa' is being a poor 'observer.

"She went against advice to choose Central Nova. Now she is in her back-handed way acknowledging that was a mistake." -- I don't see it that way at all. Counteradvice will always exist, the % figure attained was impressive given what was started with, and deciding to live there obviously had personal significance. Where would a winnable riding have been, or be? But KenS does "see that Ottawa West would not fit the bill".

"From what we learned in that article about all the filth in her house" -- why would Stockholm stoop so, ignoring the article's immediate follow-up by, "house is once again gleaming"? Has Stockholm ever left the safety of a keyboard to dare risking domestic neglect in going after a publicly pursued cause? Come on, I quit even looking at this forum after being aghast at the hate speech I saw it harboured during the recent violent flare up in the mideast; now I return & see even Stockholm, someone I recall I had some respect for, smear poop around?

"Many are working to have Frank De Jong take over the leadership of the Green Party" -- That would likely finish off my GPC support & participation, after my dreadful experience with his GPO, which seems to be a haunt for refugees from GPC. We'll see.

[edited for having trouble with this editor's line-spacing & wordwrap]

I am fully aware of "green politics", and need no rethinking. But I am sure Benmergui, will.

All leaders sometimes choose against the advice given them. But their must be something 'unique' about the way May does it that leads to the truly incredible turnover around her. And it isn't just the amount of turnover- it says something about what can be expected from the ones who settle in. I'm sure that Dan Baril took in stride that May chose against his advice about her choice of riding 2 years ago. But that followed with ....

And the % she achieved in Central Nova was neither impressive, or going anywhere... otherwise she wouldn't be going elsewhere now.

There is also a fundamental 'inconsistency' in the explanation she gives. When it comes up, and she has more than once brought it up herself in an interview [so we know she wants this heard], she will frame her run last time as within the Green tradition of not putting paramount importance on winning the seat. And then she goes on to "now we are rethinking that" [the earlier version], or "we have decided that my winning is a priority".

But the path to spending about $300,000 to date in Central Nova began immediately. [And that figure does not count things like her salary and other costs of being a leader- those are just the costs of her running in Central Nova.]

When I saw that comment you quoted I was going to say that my read is that most of the activists who I have heard that are favourably disposed to Frank, that is it: they are waiting to see. And while Frank and a couple of other people are no doubt quietly doing stuff, I seriously doubt there is any more to it than that. Let alone that people do not simply 'take over' a leadership. At any rate, I've seen that same kind of comment before that you just made about Frank. Mind you, even without knowing anything of specifics behind those feelings, anyone who has been a leader as long as Frank DeJong is guaranteed to have that sort of feeling in a wake behind him... if it wasn't from one quarter, it would be from another. Which quarter would depend according to the leader, but all have it.

Obviously I agree that May has given activists plenty of reason to not give her another term as leader. [Technically, its not a review.]

But you are just plain wrong- she still has more than plenty of support... and anyone wanting to unseat her is going to have to run a very good campaign for themselves. At this point in time at least: there is no evidence that anyone can win the leadership next year simply of the basis they are not Elizabeth May.

As a former Green Candidate, I have to agree with Stockholm's suggestion of Ottawa West-Nepean for Elizabeth May.  

There is no such thing as a safe seat for the Green Party, and ridings like Okanagon or Bruce Grey-Owen (despite having strong showings) had their high results come as a direct result of strong support for local candidates.  

They also suffer from being very far away from a major media source, which was a huge hinderance in 2008 for Green candidates with Elizabeth's choice of Central Nova, as we suffered from a complete lack of media presence in the final two weeks of the campaign.  

Any riding in Ottawa would allow May to give press releases daily to the National Press while campaigning in her own riding.  If the Green Party cannot afford to charter a plane to meet the press, we may as well choose a riding where the press already exists.

Any riding can yield a decent Green result if $80,000 is spent on Election Advertising in it.  High green results are usually the combination of a well known candidate with a decent budget.  (Central Nova, Okanagan-Sushwap, Vancouver Center, Bruce Grey-Owen sound, Guelph) all had near full budgets.

Saanich Gulf Island in 2004 was a high result, but that was because the party spent $80,000 there.  In 2006, the same candidate dropped from 16%-9%, and the budget dropped 75% as well.

John Baird is also an ideal Conservative candidate for a Green to run against. 

Unlike McKay who is seen as a moderate local candidate, Baird is highly partisan and has a huge ego.  Now that the Conservative's "strong leadership" has shifted in voter's minds to "arrogance", he is certain to be vulnerable.  Additionally, with Baird's recent opposition to street cars, his former opposition to light rail in ottawa, and his tenure as Environment minister would make this an opportune riding for the Green Party to combine a national with a local message.   His current role as minister of transportation and infrastructure would allow Elizabeth May to campaign directly against him on economic issues that the Green Party can champion (railway expansion, alternative transportation)

Unfortunately, when Elizabeth May chose to run against Peter MacKay, she would have had to focus on foreign policy decisions to challenge Peter Mackay directly.  Except, foreign policy is a poor topic to run a local campaign on.  She had to run a very different campaign in her local riding than she did nationally.

Maybe the Liberals have their own plans for the seat?  (Is David Pratt planning to run again?)

Do municipal seats count?  (Though even there, elected Greens are far and few between...)

David Pratt is planning to run again, and apparently thinks that with more time to prepare a campaign, he has a better shot at winning this time.

And, I can even think of one issue where Baird is more progressive than Pratt...

Well, you might as well offer the "only if Liberal vote goes up and Conservative vote goes down" prospectus to every presently-Tory-held seat in Ontario. In fact, it seems to me to be the perfect "Iggy Tory" seat, and being an innerish urban Ontario seat, it should count as latently very vulnerable for Baird.

What's so "interesting"?  Thanks to the Greens and the carbon-tax Liberals, it was more common than not for the NDP's share to fall in non-target Ontario seats in '08.  And all the more so in OWN for the race to be so strictly strategized in Lib-CPC terms (yes; believe it or not, past Rivier voters might have opted for Grit hawk Pratt this time)

Does she really not realize that  her admitting that she could not win in CN, no matter if she had it fixed in her favour, indicates what a idiot she is?

Though of course if she was getting provincial Green party dollars that explains a lot, though it indiccates she is like a lot of other eco-capitalists these days, who pretend they are environmentalists, while just being out to feather their own nests. On that note, I will say an aside, apparently the Nature of Things has a well balanced program on this Saturday night which appears to indicate from the trailers, that really why are we concerned about global warming, it wil be good for Canada and Canadians, while showing the dispair of the Inuit.

And when was the last time we heard anything from EMay in respect to environmental concerns? We only ever hear about her, so I guess really she is role modeling that individual concerns come before environmental concerns to everyone. Brava EMay, well done, at this rate people will continue not to care about the environment anytime soon.

Thinking it over, I guess Marlene Rivier in '08 might be deemed the Jillian Saweczko of the NDP, i.e. little more than a token third option versus a race of two giants.  (Saweczko being the Tory running against Kennedy/Nash in PHP.  There's even a certain parallel in how the "strategic voting" happened in spite of Kennedy's leftiness, just like it happened in spite of Pratt's rightiness...)

She swore on election night that she would run again in Central Nova in the next federal election - quite a turnaround.

The scuttlebutt in the GPC is that she has chosen Saanich-Gulf Islands. Their reason for thinking so sounds convincing to me.

Maybe Ken means this post:

http://reportongreens.blogspot.com/2009/06/decision-has-been-made.html

What is their reason?  So that she can finish 2nd in another riding?  It is not good enough to be 2nd when your party has no seats in the House - you have to finish 1st.

I rarely agree with Charles Adler on anything, but when he interviewed Elizabeth May a couple of years ago he told her that when you keep finishing 2nd it makes you a loser and that that's not good enough for her if she wants to get anywhere.

In some strange way, I can see the nature of Briony Penn's '08 near-win vindicating such a decision...

It will be the 3rd province she has run in too.  Most candidates who change ridings don't normally switch provinces and run on the opposite side of the country from where they ran last time.  There's the odd exception such as John Turner or Brian Mulroney or Joe Clark, but May is not the Liberal or PC leader.

Normally people do something like what Peter Kent did - after losing to Carolyn Bennett in St. Paul's he moved over to Thornhill, or Tony Clement who after losing to Colleen Beaumier moved up to Parry Sound-Muskoka.  Normally one stays in the same region rather than traversing across the country.

Wishful thinking. Realists know that anywhere May announces, it effectively becomes impossible to win there. No strong candidate will run for the NDP or the Liberals, and they will run 'as good as possible' campaigns, not vigorous ones.

Long thread.