babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.
Explaining the 2011 Federal Election: Who Switched to Whom, and When
June 15, 2012 - 8:02am
V
From Pundit's Guide, summarizing just released Canadian Election Study data on the 2011 election, and conclusions to be drawn.
Explaining the 2011 Federal Election I: Who Switched to Whom, and WhenThe CES has been studying and tracking what drives voter decisions for decades of elections. It is NOT just 'polling writ large'.
And who by far gained the most was overwhelmingly the NPD - sweet.
Explaining the 2011 Federal Election II: The Recipe for Orange Crush
Let's hope that with Mulcair as leader, enough former soft-sovereignty supporters will come on-board in 2015 to put the final nail in the BQ coffin.
Quebec ridings where the NDP lost by less that 1000 votes:
Ahuntsic - 708
Lotbiniere-Chute-de-la-Chaudiere - 783
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup - 110
Richmond-Arthabaska - 715
Westmount-Ville Marie - 658
It wouldn't take a large change in votes to bring those seats to the NDP column.
oh that new voters come onboard and vote because they see the NDP as viable in winning - thus not feeling defeated and not voting.
I wonder what our MP, François Lapointe, thinks of you saying he was defeated in M-L'I-K-RdeL?
Remember, too: different electoral boundaries next time...
Excellent analysis.
Jim Twiss comments "I am curious as to the effect of the "Coalition Question." As am I. Anecdotally, and as laid out by Brad Levigne, Layton's coalition efforts laid the groundwork for the brilliant "hamster spinning in his wheel" and "barking dogs" ads, and for everything else that followed:
But Jim also says "The public response to the 2008 attempt made it clear that the Rest of Canada would not accept a coalition that included the BQ." This is a media myth, that is, an oversimplification given credibility only by incessant repetition. In fact, as the media belatedly started explaining Canada's parliamentary system, the hysteria against the coalition largely vanished after Christmas, 2008. By Jan. 15 - 17, EKOS found 50% support for the Coalition, while 43% would prefer the Conservative government to the Coalition, and 6% were undecided, although only 36% would vote Conservative:
I argue that, when Ignatieff spent the campaign saying "you're looking at the guy who turned down the last coalition. I could be standing here as prime minister of Canada. I turned it down" this helped scare 17% of his voters away from a coalition with the NDP, but also helped persuade some of the 78% of Liberal voters who liked the idea of an NDP-Liberal coalition to switch to the NDP. They weren't all in Quebec.