Federal Election 2015 Predictions

108 posts / 0 new
Last post
mark_alfred
Federal Election 2015 Predictions

;

Issues Pages: 
Regions: 
adma

mark_alfred wrote:
PEI:  Cons 1; Libs 4.

PEI's going to 5 seats from 4?!?

NorthReport

That would present the Liberals with a very difficult decision to make. Laughing

 

My hunch is that the suits, er Liberals, would support a Cons government rather than an NDP one.

clambake

CON - 150

NDP - 112

LIB - 72

BQ -3

GRN - 1

Trudeau opts to support Harper (or probably Kenney) instead of Mulcair. Liberal support again plummets, post election. Liberal partisans vehemently try to justify the move.  JT: "We will support the will of the electorate, but hold the government to account!". Liberal infighting starts again. NDP begin to consistently poll in first at the expense of both parties in 2016

Ippurigakko

hahahaa....mark, geez you really think my mp Leona in nunavut will run in next election? I dont think so, she unlikely will not run in 2015 just because i know her.

 

 

mark_alfred

adma wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:
PEI:  Cons 1; Libs 4.

PEI's going to 5 seats from 4?!?

No, that's a boo-boo on my part.  I'll correct that now.  Thanks.

mark_alfred

It's never too early to speculate.  So, here's my prediction:  the Liberals will do much better in Ontario, the Bloc will regain some seats in Quebec but the NDP will still hold most of them, the Conservatives will retain the Prairies, and the NDP will make gains in BC.  I feel it will be a close three way race, with the Conservatives losing out in Ontario.  It will begin to have the feel of a contest between the NDP and Liberals for first, with the Cons potentially coming in third.  Why do I feel this way?  Because my gut tells me so!

Here's my prediction:

Alberta:  Cons 33; NDP 1.

BC:  Cons 10; NDP 25; Libs 6; Greens 1.

Manitoba:  Cons 10; NDP 2; Libs 2.

NB:  Cons 3; NDP 2; Libs 5.

Newfoundland:  NDP 3; Libs 4.

NWT:  NDP 1.

Nova Scotia:  Cons 2; NDP 4; Libs 5.

Nunavut:  Cons 1.

Ontario:  Cons 30; NDP 27; Liberals 64.

PEI:  Cons 1; Libs 3.

Quebec:  Cons 3; NDP 50; Libs 9; Bloc 16.

Sask:  Cons 14; NDP 1; Libs 1.

Yukon:  Cons 1.

So, in total it will be Cons 106, NDP 116, Libs 99, Bloc 16, Greens 1.  (out of a total of 338)

Sean in Ottawa

Early to predict.

Still, if Trudeau connects well then the Liberals may get more seats than this. If he does not then 99 is too many.

I suspect Trudeau won't connect that well and I'd be surprised indeed to see him get over 60 seats in Ontario.

Maybe more like: Cons 132, NDP 110, Libs 79, Bloc 16, Greens 1.

This would leave the next Liberal leader a hard choice (Trudeau would resign at these numbers I think).

Things could also go much worse for the Liberals if Trudeau commits a major gaffe. I could see the Liberals even with Trudeau still somewhere around where they are now...

Centrist

mark_alfred wrote:
the NDP will make gains in BC.

BC:  Cons 10; NDP 25; Libs 6; Greens 1

I dunno about that. We know that this May, BC will have an NDP provincial government. We also know by history that after 1 year or more the MSM and public seems to turn against NDP provincial governments in BC.

BC NDP elected in 1972 - 1974 federal election, NDP is reduced to 2 seats in BC.

BC NDP elected in 1991 - 1993 federal election, NDP is reduced to 2 seats in BC, 3 seats in 1997 federal election and 2 seats in 2000 federal election.

I'm not saying that will happen in 2015 but just a caveat. 

adma

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
I suspect Trudeau won't connect that well and I'd be surprised indeed to see him get over 60 seats in Ontario.

And my feeling is that if he were facing Kenney rather than Harper, it'd be less likely still (y'know, 905 ethnoburbia and all of that)

mark_alfred

Centrist wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:
the NDP will make gains in BC.

BC:  Cons 10; NDP 25; Libs 6; Greens 1

I dunno about that. We know that this May, BC will have an NDP provincial government. We also know by history that after 1 year or more the MSM and public seems to turn against NDP provincial governments in BC.

BC NDP elected in 1972 - 1974 federal election, NDP is reduced to 2 seats in BC.

BC NDP elected in 1991 - 1993 federal election, NDP is reduced to 2 seats in BC, 3 seats in 1997 federal election and 2 seats in 2000 federal election.

I'm not saying that will happen in 2015 but just a caveat. 

That's interesting.  I hadn't really thought much about how who's in power provincially may influence voters.  For Ontario, it's hard to say who will be in power provincially.

Ippurigakko

So federal 2015 will same in election 1993? Like Cons will more lose seats to NDP and Green more seats? or maybe Lib

Reform is similar Green more seats like in Victoria and Calgary. West will more Green seats maybe 15 or less from Con seats?

Conservative voter swing to Green?

 

And how about Trudeau, Murray, Findlay etc if they become leader?

I guess Trudeau will get 100 lib seats, Murray - 20-ish? and Findlay - maybe over 30?

 

so IDK! lol

 

 

felixr

NDP 40% - majority government

CPC 35%

LIB 11%

GRN 8%

BQ 6%

---

The CPC will do that well mostly because of Liberals fleeing to the right as the NDP pulls out into first place. The NDP's rise to first will come out of a big chunk of the Liberal vote. The Liberals will thus be a goose that is plucked from the left and then the right. If the Liberals want to avoid that and show any strategic acumen, then they will try and merge with the Greens, a move that would keep them in the race. Also, Justin's strategy of focusing on the West and the Prairies in particular is wise so long as Mulcair gives their views and priorities short shrift.

Brachina

I think just Truedeau will rise higher once he gets cornated, but at some point before the next election will come crashing down dropping all the harder for being so popular in the first place. Justin will get butchered in the debates as well.

Mulcair has always been ten steps ahead of everyone, he thinks long term. So Majority NDP government.

Stockholm

There is no such word as "coronated"' the word is CROWNED

felixr

If the Green party fails to field candidates in many of the 338 ridings that is going to be a boon to the NDP, as the Greens take the environmental protest vote in much of the country. If the Liberals merge with the Greens it improves their brand but not their ground game. If they don't merge they risk the Greens folding in riding by riding and giving the NDP some top-up votes. The NDP is also going to draw votes from the CPC, both from governing fatigue and appeals to common sense/working class issues.

Brachina

I stand corrected. CROWNED it is ;D

adma

Even if he "underwhelms", I can't see Justin sinking to a Joe Clark 2000 circumstance--and besides, coming from New Democrats, that scenario strikes me as ick as bygone Liberals hoping/wishing/predicting/relegating the NDP to something similar...

jerrym

I don't have a clue what will happen in 2015. Remember that in the three by-elections in November 2010, which were only six months before the national election, that the NDP did relatively poorly, yet almost tripled its number of seats in May 2011 and went from one solitary riding in Quebec to dominate the province. Predictions this far out have the shelf life of a bubble in a bubble bath. 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Lib minority government. Trudeau tries to govern without NDP support and tires to triangulate regularliy to put NDP at disadvantage. Trudeau tries to create majority Lib government at some later point to continue Corporatist Lib agenda and to prove he's a chip off the old block. MSM fawns on him and at end of reign of Le Dauphin, surge after surge of Lib historical revisionism claiming that's my boy! Economy continues to do badly, unemployment sits around 8 - 9 % for next 10 - 20 years, increased medical privitization, CPP cuts and harder to get education. Pollution continues unabated and global warming gets worse. Rich stay rich and poor get poorer. Canada in 20 years will look a lot like Japan.

ETA: Alberta will likely be starting to look like a have not province again, and their will be continuous out migration back east. I am guessing the population in Alberta n 20 years will be between 250 and 500K less then it is now. You simply can't run an economy on a non renewable resource with no backup plan and expect to stay prosperous. By the way, that is also the problem with the Libs; they have no back up plan, and frankly, no real long term plan at all. I just don't think Albertans have it in them to look much beyond the ends of their noses. My wife calls Alberta "Texas North", and I think she's right. And, I belive this is going to come back to haunt them some time in the mid 2020s.

RalphKlein really is what Alberta is and what it will always be; ego, disdain and hatred without either substance or intellect.

sherpa-finn

Brachina: I think just Truedeau will rise higher once he gets cornated....

Stockholm: There is no such word as "coronated"' the word is CROWNED

Brachina: I stand corrected. CROWNED it is ;D

Don't let him push you around, Brachina.  As any decent Scrabble player will tell you, "coronate" is a perfectly good (if rarely used) English word. And yes, it means "to crown".   http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/coronate

 

mark_alfred

Hopefully Arthur's dystopia won't happen*.  In fact, hopefully the Liberals will do worse in the next election.  I do predict however that the population of Ontario will start to move away from the Conservatives and onto the Liberals.  Ontario is a pretty right-wing province, and has been waiting for a leader of the Libs who's somewhat palatable.  JT could fit the bill, and PET still enjoys some reverence in Ontario, so the familiarity of the name, especially with older Ontarians, could reduce the Conservatives (possibly even in the 905).  The Libs may regain some 416 Toronto seats too from the NDP.  However, I think JT's pro-pipeline stance will not help him in BC or Quebec, and I don't foresee any large gains in the Prairies for either the NDP or the Libs.  I'm guessing JT will be an apt performer for today's soundbite media (and I'm guessing he'll be passable enough in the debates, though that could be his great fall like it was for Ignatieff).  I'm not sure about the Atlantic, however.  I think BC and Quebec will be good NDP territory, Ontario good for the Libs, and the Prairies good for the Cons (with still some support in BC and Ont).  So, a closer three-way race this time.

The real mystery to predicting an outcome is Harper.  Right now the Conservatives are doing strange things, like Flaherty's call to Manulife to not lower their mortgage rates too much.  Is there a housing bubble that's ready to burst?  Are they nowhere near to reducing the deficit as they've claimed?  Will Harper exit before the shit hits the fan?  Or will he relentlessly fight for a second majority?  And if so, whom does he choose to attack with their mountains of attack-ad revenue?  Does he attack Tom or JT (or both)?  In my opinion, Harper and the Conservatives are more the great unknown than are JT and the Liberals.

___

* hopefully mmphosis' utopia will happen

felixr

I honestly think that Jester Trudeau marks the end of the Liberal Party. He has relied on faking it for much of his life. He can't fake it in this job and he's going to make a blithering fool out of himself. The people around him are smarter but hardly less shallow or facile.

Brian Glennie

Brachina wrote:
Justin will get butchered in the debates

A few months ago my mom told me she was going to vote for Justin Trudeau next time. I asked her why and she said it was because he beat that Tory senator. I'd never bothered checking into it because I hate boxing and I knew it had been set up by SunTV which means boring, purile, badly staged TV, right? 

I was wrong. I watched the fight for the first time yesterday on youtube and I came away feeling that we should never underestimate what this guy can do when he's given the spotlight.

 

Brachina

A boxing match and a debate are NOT the same thing at all. Second of all that's an absolutely foolish reason ti vote for someone, because he won a boxing match and its that type of thinking that will destroy this country yet if we let it.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Brian Glennie wrote:

Brachina wrote:
Justin will get butchered in the debates

A few months ago my mom told me she was going to vote for Justin Trudeau next time. I asked her why and she said it was because he beat that Tory senator. I'd never bothered checking into it because I hate boxing and I knew it had been set up by SunTV which means boring, purile, badly staged TV, right? 

I was wrong. I watched the fight for the first time yesterday on youtube and I came away feeling that we should never underestimate what this guy can do when he's given the spotlight.

 

Yep, I agree. This has me worried. The key is going to be pummeling him relentlessly in the House. The NDP is going to need to get under his skin right away and stay there. Trudeau's Achilles heel is his exceedingly think skin. The NDP is going to have show how little there is without making it personal. Its going to have to be at policy. Its going to have to be about putting him on the spot and keeping him there. If they do that, he will fold. We all know there is nothing to him, but we have to exploit that and use it against him. He won't last. He'll fold like a cheap shirt. If there is one thing this guy can't stand is anyone challenging his myth. He'll end up look silly, and much less like he has that cliched "royal jelly".

mark_alfred

Brachina wrote:
A boxing match and a debate are NOT the same thing at all. Second of all that's an absolutely foolish reason ti vote for someone, because he won a boxing match and its that type of thinking that will destroy this country yet if we let it.

The boxing match also displayed his ease at handling the media in the interviews before and after the match.  But true, a debate is a completely different matter.  However, Ignatieff was a seasoned debater in Harvard who did not have the right timing for the televised election debate.  The other thing working against Ignatieff was that there were very high expectations (IE, he was the international superstar "just visiting", who, while doing okay, certainly didn't outshine anyone).  The lower expectations for Trudeau could work in his favour.  Take the boxing match.  In spite of the fact that he's taken boxing ever since he was a kid, whereas Brazeau had not, the only thing that was mentioned was Brazeau being a former soldier with a black belt in karate (karate is a different entity from boxing and really gives no advantage in a boxing match).  It really should not have surprised anyone that a boxer with over thirty years experience could easily defeat a relative newcomer to it.  But he was portrayed as the underdog, so this became a far bigger deal than it should have. Likewise he's being portrayed as an underdog in the political arena now (IE, questions of will he survive the debates or the chores of running a party), in spite of the fact that his father was prime minister and he's been surrounded by politics right from birth.  We've yet to see how Mulcair will do in the debates.  I expect and hope he'll do well, but, as I've said, often when expectations are high, the performance gets judged more harshly.  Trudeau then has the odd advantage of having lower expectations upon him, despite his background.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

"The boxing match also displayed his ease at handling the media in the interviews before and after the match."

Yep, and the MSM loves him too. This is not going to be easy. With the likes like that idiotic Chatal Heibert, the moron Andrew Coyne, and that pompous Rex Murphy and the Trudeau CBC cheerleading team, its going to be a battle.

As I said, the NDP needs to get under Trudeau's exceedingly thin skin early, and stay there.

Bolo

It is way too early to call seat numbers. Likeliehood is the NDP will lose most of the Quenec seats they gained soley as a backlash to the Bloc and Liberals. They'll keep few of the Ontario seats they garnered the same way. Harper the Horrble will likely wind up with another minority and the Gruesome Greens will benefit from those fleeing the NDP and Libs. Trudeau is not his father, not fit to haul hs father's trash out of the house. He will, nevertheless, become the next putative "leader" of the Libs and likely be replaced shortly after the next federal election in which the libs will be left scratchiing their heads wondering "Wha' hoppen?".

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Bolo, welcome. Dont' agree on your assessment on seat numbers, but glad to see you here. Enjoy!

socialdemocrati...

So much depends on those intervening events. Double dip recession. Climate crisis. Gun massacre. Insolvency of a provincial government. But on average, I expect them to cut against neoconservative / neoliberal ideas.

- I still think Conservatives hang onto a minority government.

- I think Liberals rebound a bit in Ontario, mostly at the expense of the Conservatives.

- NDP basically holds steady.

I honestly don't know if the NDP and Liberals will cooperate to overtake the Conservatives, but I know it will be numerically possible.

Brachina

 Trudeau opposes cooperation, will not change, so there is no point in worrying about it.

mark_alfred

Brachina wrote:

 Trudeau opposes cooperation, will not change, so there is no point in worrying about it.

I think he opposes pre-election cooperation of the sort that both Murray and Cullen advocated.  It's less clear whether Trudeau or Mulcair would be opposed to the sort of post-election cooperation (like an accord or coalition) that Layton advocated (and that Rae, many years ago with David Peterson, took part in).  If the Conservatives win a plurality only, would the Liberals and NDP join forces to overthrow the Conservatives or would they settle into the minority situation as Ignatieff did (IE, when Ignatieff broke the deal that the Liberals had with the NDP to overthrow Harper)? 

socialdemocrati...

Yeah I agree. Mulcair and Trudeau are both on record opposing (or at least criticizing) a post-election coalition. But of all the promises from politicians, I think there's a lot of reasons to break that promise once they're in office. (Pre-election co-operation though? Far less likely.)

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Is anyone else flagging this Spam or just me? I hope you are. They'll block it if we let them know about it.

mmphosis

Majority NDP government by a landslide vote.

Greens become the official opposition.

Bloc gets more seats than the last election.

Both of the old corporatist parties get no seats and lose official status.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I agree with Chantal Hébert's opinion that the Harper government is passing its best before date right now, which will make 2015 a "throw the bums out" election. The voters will look at their choices, which will be Mulcair or Trudeau. By then, I feel confident that Justin's bubble will have, if not burst, at least lost a good bit of its air. Mulcair's cautious approach as Oppostion Leader will reassure voters, especially in Ontario. Remember that Bill Davis was one of the most popular politicians ever in Ontario, and Mulcair is almost Bill Davis with a beard.

I predict that the NDP will have a strong minority without going west of Ontario. Something like 20 seats east of Quebec, 65 in Quebec, and 80 in Ontario. I expect them to take a dozen or so seats in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 1 or 2 in Alberta, and 15 to 20 in BC. After it happens, it will seem as if an NDP majority was inevitable all along.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Michael Moriarity wrote:

 Mulcair's cautious approach as Oppostion Leader will reassure voters, especially in Ontario. Remember that Bill Davis was one of the most popular politicians ever in Ontario, and Mulcair is almost Bill Davis with a beard.

Now there is an apt description.  A sad commentary though about a once proudly left wing party.

On to electoral victory because that is what the political game is about.  Not much will change but Mulcair the former Charest cabinet minister will be better than the current fascist neo-con.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

On to electoral victory because that is what the political game is about.  Not much will change but Mulcair the former Charest cabinet minister will be better than the current fascist neo-con.

Well, as I've written in other threads, I still have some hope that a majority NDP government would implement MMP. After that, we'll have at least one serious left wing party represented in parliament. Other than that, I agree.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I would really like that but I suspect they will merely study it and it will not be in place for the 2019 election. Governments of all stripes including the NDP provincially have a hard time giving up the phoney majorities when they are in a position to cash in from FPTP.  Here's hoping a Mulcair led government will prove me wrong.

mark_alfred

The good thing about the predictions now is that both the Liberals and the Conservatives are the wildcards, not the NDP.  Will Trudeau implode?  Will Harper and his Conservatives implode?  Maybe and maybe not.  However, the same question does not apply to the NDP.  They have proven themselves capable and united, and no one questions Mulcair's ability.

mark_alfred

If the NDP (or Greens, for that matter) were able to get a "phony majority" (a la FPTP) then would their membership even want them to put in place MMP?  Would we want to have them surrender some of their clout to the other big-business parties?  Anyway, for MMP to occur, I assume the public would have to be onside.  So, likely a proposal would be put in place and a referendum would occur.  In Ontario, there was a referendum on MMP which was soundly defeated.  So it may be a difficult road ahead.  But, perhaps a referendum would not be necessary.  After all, if the NDP gets a majority, it can said that they have a mandate from the people to proceed.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

If they run on a platform that includes putting MMP in place they can do it if elected.  I await that plank in their platform. Otherwise they will be going down some sort of referendum path that will see the full weight of the MSM propaganda machine trying to make sure it doesn't pass.  We know how that worked out in Ontario and BC the second time.  The first time in BC PR flew under the radar and was passed by large majority but it did not meet the phoney super majority that was put in place to ensure failure. The second time the No side was lead by NDP operatives and the MSM attacked it relentlessly and it went down in flames.

mark_alfred

kropotkin1951 wrote:

If they run on a platform that includes putting MMP in place they can do it if elected. 

That's what they should do.  Clearly spell it out in their platform and then ram it through once they get their FPTP majority (regardless of whether it is a phony majority or not -- as long as the current rules are properly played by, then the mandate to take action is there, I figure).

mark_alfred

Ippurigakko wrote:

hahahaa....mark, geez you really think my mp Leona in nunavut will run in next election? I dont think so, she unlikely will not run in 2015 just because i know her.

 

Thanks for the information.  As you likely can tell, I didn't do any hard research in making my prediction.  So, given what you've let me know, hopefully the NDP will win Nunavut rather than the Conservatives.

Ippurigakko

yeah, hopefully.... she will not seeking next election only if Stephen resign before elections 2015?

 

If NDP is majority next,

Harper not resign, if he will most lose team seats and he will concede, or you wanna see he resign as leader or concede?

mark_alfred

I hope the NDP gets a majority.  I'd like to see the Conservatives lose whether Harper resigns or not. 

Fidel

And let's not forget that according to certain babblers identifying themselves only as affiliated with the non-existent anti-NDP party,  if the NDP doesn't transform 2015 Bananada into 1974 Canada inside of one four-year term in federal power, it's not good enough. Might as well vote Liberal, Tory, same old story so we can get on with the ol' worker versus parasites same as usual.

The tortoise and Achilles would lose a foot race to these babblers.

 

Debater

Way too early to make these sort of predictions of course, so I won't make any specific seat predictions or even predictions about placement.  We don't even know for sure who the leaders in the next election will be, or what the actual poll numbers will be for each party by 2015.

But based on current trends I would predict the following in a general sense:

 

An increase in LPC seats.

A decrease in Conservative seats.

A decrease in NDP seats.

Not enough data to predict what will happen with BQ seats.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Where are those Liberal seats gonna be? Ontario, Quebec, B.C.? I don't think so.

 

You might still hold PEI.

Debater

knownothing wrote:

Where are those Liberal seats gonna be? Ontario, Quebec, B.C.? I don't think so.

 

You might still hold PEI.

I made a general prediction without any grandiose boasting, so how come you are not able to do the same?

I said that based on the fact that the polls show the Liberals UP from where they were in the last election, they are likely to gain seats.  The polls show the Conservatives down and the NDP flatlined.  So my general trendlines were based on that.

What do you base your predictions of no Liberal growth on?

Pages

Topic locked