Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

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David Young
Federal By-elections - Fall '13/Spring '14?

I've just read that former NHL enforcer (and one-time Montreal Canadien) Georges Laraque is about to announce that he will be the Green Party candidate in the up-coming Bourassa by-election.

Does anyone else have news about other candidates?

 

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Krago

Bourassa has the highest proportion of people of Haitian origin of any federal riding in Canada:

  • Bourassa: 12.6%
  • Saint-Léonard - Saint-Michel: 9.6%
  • Honoré-Mercier: 7.9%
  • Alfred-Pellan: 5.2%

The Liberals may not be cheering M. Laraque's entry into the race.  Areas of Liberal strength match fairly closely to areas with the highest proportion of Haitians:

[img]https://googledrive.com/host/0B9sBXp66G86xY3JXMlZNb2pscms/Bourassa_Liber... [img]https://googledrive.com/host/0B9sBXp66G86xY3JXMlZNb2pscms/Bourassa_Haiti...

Lens Solution

It's rather limited thinking to assume that Haitians will vote for a candidate just because he's Haitian - he may have a wider appeal than that.  And may take away from more than one party if the Greens run a strong campaign.

nicky

I was just polled by a company called Research House for the Toronto Centre by-election.

I was asked if I had heard of Ian Gillespie, Linda McQuaig, George Smitherman and Seamus O'Reagan.

I have not heard that the first two were possible candidates.

No mention of Jennifer Hollet who seems to be the front runner for the NDP nomination.

I was also asked whether I lived north or south of Bloor St, whether I approved of the 3 main federal leaders and how I voted last time.

David Young

On which date are the municipal elections in Quebec?

I think it's safe to guess that Harper will wait until some time after then to call these by-elections, as the Ontario municipal elections was the excuse for not calling the Toronto Centre by-election in 2007 after Bill Graham had resigned on July 2, 2007, and the by-election didn't happen until March 17, 2008.

 

sherpa-finn

@ David Young:  > Does anyone else have news about other candidates?

Last I heard, a local community activist, Julie Demers had announced her candidacy for the NDP in Bourassa. 

> On which date are the municipal elections in Quebec?

November 3rd.

jerrym

Julie Demers was the NDP candidate in the 2011 election winning 32% (an increase of 24%) to Coderre's 41%. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bourassa_(electoral_district)

There is a description of Demers and the ethnic makeup of the riding in the following article.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/by-election-battle-in-boura...

Ironically she was chosen originally as the candidate in Ruth Ellen Brosseau's Berthier-Maskinongé riding, but was switched to Coderre's riding. 

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/05/04/rookie-ndp-mp-elect-accused-of-f...

The site below shows her social media activity.

http://politwitter.ca/profile/tweetjewels

David Young

Thanks for the info, sherpa-finn.

It's great to see Julie Demers wants the nomination again, after her impressive second-place showing in 2011.

As she points out in that article, Coderre didn't win on his first attempt in that riding either!

 

Aristotleded24

Not that it's likely to go anything other than Conservative, but I hope Mulcair swings by Provencher to help out in the by-election as he has done with every other one that has been held. If the NDP is to be taken seriously, it has to build up a presence in all ridings, because that will help lifting up the whole party.

Wilf Day

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Not that it's likely to go anything other than Conservative, but I hope Mulcair swings by Provencher to help out in the by-election as he has done with every other one that has been held. If the NDP is to be taken seriously, it has to build up a presence in all ridings, because that will help lifting up the whole party.

The NDP needs a strong candidate in Provencher, to make sure the Liberals don't come second. Here's what happened in Vic Toews past elections:

Year 2011/ 2008/ 2006/ 2004/ 2000

NDP 17.89%/ 13.73%/ 13.71%/ 9.01%/ 4.89%

Lib 6.71%/ 12.57%/ 15.84%/ 24.92%/ 35.62%

The Liberals actually held it from 1993 to 2000 on a split conservative vote.

But back in 1980 the NDP got 28.42%. 

adma

Wilf Day wrote:
The NDP needs a strong candidate in Provencher, to make sure the Liberals don't come second.

Interestingly, they *did* have a "name" candidate in 2011: former MLA Al Mackling--though the fact that he was 83 years old made him more of a standard-bearing novelty than "strong" per se...

David Young

Has there been any news if Susan Wallace is interested in seeking the NDP nomination again in Toronto Centre?

If she and Julie Demers repeat as candidates in those two ridings, given their strong second-place showings in 2011, the NDP would really show how they are committed to getting more female candidates elected to Parliament.

 

adma

Thiough if Jennifer Hollett runs in TC as rumoured, that'd fit the bill too, no?

Stockholm

Jennifer Hollett is running (see below)...there could be other high profile women and men in the contest as well.

 

https://www.facebook.com/events/155802641275819

David Young

Stockholm wrote:

Jennifer Hollett is running (see below)...there could be other high profile women and men in the contest as well.

 

https://www.facebook.com/events/155802641275819

Another very impressive candidate.

She reminds me a great deal of what was said about Anne Lagace-Dowson when she became the NDP candidate in Westmount-Ville Marie in 2008.  As I recall, Harper was apparently so scared that the NDP was going to win that by-election, and ruin the Conservative campaign they had ready against Stephane Dion, should he have been replaced as Liberal Leader, that he broke his promise of a set election date and called the 2008 election.

This time, that won't be happening.

 

Lens Solution

Journalist Chrystia Freeland to seek Liberal nod for Toronto Centre

Saturday, Jul. 27 2013

A senior editor at an international media organization will seek the Liberal nomination for the downtown Toronto riding vacated by Bob Rae.

Chrystia Freeland, a former manager and writer at The Globe and Mail and other internationally renowned publications, is hoping to win the Liberal nod in Toronto Centre for the upcoming by-election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/journalist-chrystia-freelan...

> Looks like both the NDP & the LPC could have high-profile women running in Toronto Centre for a change.  Has there ever been a woman MP for this riding before?

 

janfromthebruce

Freeland is also a parachut candidate - interesting about that. Not from Toronto.

Ms. Freeland, who is the author of Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else, has held several positions over the years at The Financial Times in London and Moscow. The mother of three is moving to Toronto from New York, where she has just quit as a managing director and editor at Thomson Reuters.

The Globe and Mail and Reuters will no longer employ Ms. Freeland as a columnist.

“I’m taking a risk, and I’m ready to compete and to fight, and I think that is the way it should be,” she said.

Ms. Freeland grew up in a political household in Alberta with a Liberal father and a mother who once ran for an NDP nomination. She said that it is wrong to assume that the Liberal brand and the Trudeau name are toxic in her home province.

“It’s a mistake to try and divide Canada; we really are one country,” she said. “There are a lot of people in the West, in Alberta, who believe in that and who believe in the Liberal vision that I want to be a part of.”

So a Globe comumnist, living in New York, quits to move to Toronto to run for the Libs. Reminds me of Iggy.

David Young

Has Rae actually resigned yet?

I was looking at the Parliamentary web-site, www.parl.gc.ca and under Party Standings, it shows that there are vacancies in Quebec (Bourassa) and Manitoba (Provencher), but no vacany in Ontario.

I thought Toews resigned after Rae had made his announcement.

 

Stockholm

janfromthebruce wrote:

Freeland is also a parachut candidate - interesting about that. Not from Toronto.

So a Globe comumnist, living in New York, quits to move to Toronto to run for the Libs. Reminds me of Iggy.

She also studied Russian history and lived in Moscow - so she even has the Russian thing in common with Iggy!!

edmundoconnor

If Alberta is so peachy for the Liberals, why isn't she running there? There would be a few riding associations out there who would be delighted to make her acquaintance, I bet. But I think we all know the real reason why Freeland would want to run in Toronto Centre. She thinks she can win there first-time, rather than slog away in thankless obscurity in the west. Hmm, which Liberal MPP does *that* remind me of?

Jan: Your misprint almost led me to read her job as 'Globe communist'. The G & M wouldn't let one through the doors. Yet copying others' work and claiming it as your own, is not only okay, but earns you a staunch defence from a supposedly-impartial Public Editor. Some standard.

edmundoconnor

Not that I think it's going to matter if Smitherman enters the race. If he says he's interested, it's not going to be a question of whether the other candidates for the Liberal nomination scatter, but how fast they do so.

edmundoconnor

FWIW, I hadn't realized the G&M was 'internationally-renowned". But then the Globe never misses a chance to admire itself in the mirror.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

edmundoconnor wrote:

FWIW, I hadn't realized the G&M was 'internationally-renowned". But then the Globe never misses a chance to admire itself in the mirror.

That claim might have more merit than its claim to be a national newspaper.

adma

Freeland vs Smitherman sounds a lot like a "Rosedale" vs "Church-Wellesley" race for the nomination.

edmundoconnor

A thought just occurred. If Freeland loses either nomination or the by-election, she sets herself up nicely for the Mount Pleasant seat, which will come into existence in less than two years' time. The Mount Pleasant Liberals won't even have to pretend to care about those south of Bloor. If she becomes the candidate, she is much more likely to lose than Smitherman would. Smitherman still has a lot of friends in the riding. While I have no time for his brand of politics, I'm not underestimating his appeal to a certain kind of voter.

Stockholm

There is no Mount Pleasant riding in the works anymore. There will be a "University-Rosedale" seat whcih the NDP will be very competitive in since it will have half of Trinity-Spadina in it

janfromthebruce

edmundoconnor wrote:

If Alberta is so peachy for the Liberals, why isn't she running there? There would be a few riding associations out there who would be delighted to make her acquaintance, I bet. But I think we all know the real reason why Freeland would want to run in Toronto Centre. She thinks she can win there first-time, rather than slog away in thankless obscurity in the west. Hmm, which Liberal MPP does *that* remind me of?

Jan: Your misprint almost led me to read her job as 'Globe communist'. The G & M wouldn't let one through the doors. Yet copying others' work and claiming it as your own, is not only okay, but earns you a staunch defence from a supposedly-impartial Public Editor. Some standard.

Sorry about the misprint of the the word columnist. I didn't mean to mislead you. It was very sloppy of me.

edmundoconnor

Jan: No worries. I was just using any excuse to bring up Wentegate again.

janfromthebruce

edmundoconnor wrote:
Jan: No worries. I was just using any excuse to bring up Wentegate again.

 

ha ha ha - I reread your post quite a few times to finally get what you meant. I thought, at first, you were accusing me of plagarism so I went back to my original post to make sure I had had quoted it. I figured you were doing some Wente bashing.

David Young

Stockholm wrote:

Jennifer Hollett is running (see below)...there could be other high profile women and men in the contest as well.

 

https://www.facebook.com/events/155802641275819

Did any babblers go to her launch for the nomination?  If so, what size was the crowd there?

 

nicky

I was at her launch. She had an impressive turnout of about 150 people. She seems well organized.

I met her for for the first time and was reasonably impressed. Very personable, works the room well.

Her speech was engaging and delivered without notes. it was somewhat content-free. She stressed being attracted to politics by Jack Layton's entusiasm and inclusiveness. No criticism of the government or any policy ideas but of course it was more an introduction to herself.

I have not yet decided whether to support her for the nomination but of couse do not know who else might run

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

Don't get all the hype for Hollett. Appears to be nothing but a minor "celebrity" candidacy, espousing nothing more than platitudes at this point. Loads of style, support from the party brass and apparatchiks, but zero substance.

And Cythia Freeland is the biggest hypocrite in the world. After writing the book Plutocrats: Rise of the New Global Super Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else, she's running for the Liberals, the same Liberal Party that cut $100 billion in corporate taxes, embraced deregulation, privatization, gutted EI, cut CBC funding in half, supports and votes for Harper's odious China-Canada investment deal/FIPA etc.

Stockholm

George Smitherman announces he will NOT run for the Liberal nomination in Toronto Centre and furthermore that he will not run for the Liberals in any riding in 2015 either!

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/george-smitherman/toronto-centre-george-smi...

Lens Solution

Genuine mid-life change by Smitherman wanting to spend time with his spouse & kids and leave the world of politics behind, or scared off by Chrystia Freeland?

Stockholm

I don't think he was scared off by Chrystia Freeland, I suspect he was told in no uncertain terms that Justin Trudeau didn't want him and he decided not to try to fight against the candidate for whom "the fix was in"

edmundoconnor

It's extremely telling that he states in a paragraph all by its own: "First comes loyalty to the leader." If Trudeau doesn't like him, the feeling is mutual.

I don't think Smitherman was remotely frightened by Freeland. He's well-known in the riding, popular, and has deep personal knowledge of the riding. Freeland has none of those things. I think his distaste for Trudeau played a much larger role.

The by-election there has just got much more interesting. Smitherman could have got the Liberal nomination, and made life very difficult for his opponents. However, the front runners for the nomination have looser ties to the riding (if they have any at all), and will not have Smitherman's name recognition. If Hollett gets the NDP nomination and runs a good campaign, she may just win the seat.

On Hollett: Just because you're a minor celebrity and might well run a savvy campaign doesn't necessarily make you a bad candidate. Andrew Cash has done plenty of good work in the Commons, for example (for a Toronto-area example). I'll be interested to hear what she has to say in the coming weeks.

janfromthebruce

Stockholm wrote:

I don't think he was scared off by Chrystia Freeland, I suspect he was told in no uncertain terms that Justin Trudeau didn't want him and he decided not to try to fight against the candidate for whom "the fix was in"

Which is why the Libs stated, right off the bat, that the candidate will be determined by the riding members. The ones you don't want will be disuaded from running (behind closed doors).

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

janfromthebruce wrote:

Which is why the Libs stated, right off the bat, that the candidate will be determined by the riding members. The ones you don't want will be disuaded from running (behind closed doors).

They must be taking their cues from the BC NDP.  That has been the parties modus operandi for over a decade. It works for them most of the time but once in a while people don't listen and then they have to use other tactics to ensure their preferred candidates get nominated.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

edmundoconnor wrote:

On Hollett: Just because you're a minor celebrity and might well run a savvy campaign doesn't necessarily make you a bad candidate. Andrew Cash has done plenty of good work in the Commons, for example (for a Toronto-area example). I'll be interested to hear what she has to say in the coming weeks.

Hollett appears to be nothing more than an empty suit at this point. Her background in social justice is limited and predominantly comprised of NGO work (and she works with the Leading Change Network/Marshall Ganz, who was a 2008 Obama campaign strategist - *facepalm*).

Her campaign thus far appears very well financed, slick and polished, with the party brass and apparatchiks totally gushing over her on social media, proclaiming how extraordinary she is, yet not explaining why.

Winston

OnTheLeft wrote:

And Cythia Freeland is the biggest hypocrite in the world. After writing the book Plutocrats: Rise of the New Global Super Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else, she's running for the Liberals, the same Liberal Party that cut $100 billion in corporate taxes, embraced deregulation, privatization, gutted EI, cut CBC funding in half, supports and votes for Harper's odious China-Canada investment deal/FIPA etc.

Chrystia Freeland is a formidable candidate, and I'm truly disappointed she decided to run for the Liberals rather than follow her mother's example and run for us.  Although after what happened with Halyna's nomination in 1992, I am not surprised by Chrystia's decision.

Stockholm

OnTheLeft wrote:

Hollett appears to be nothing more than an empty suit at this point. Her background in social justice is limited and predominantly comprised of NGO work (and she works with the Leading Change Network/Marshall Ganz, who was a 2008 Obama campaign strategist - *facepalm*).

Her campaign thus far appears very well financed, slick and polished, with the party brass and apparatchiks totally gushing over her on social media, proclaiming how extraordinary she is, yet not explaining why.

FYI, I think the so-called "party brass" and "apparachiks" you disparage are "gushing" about her because right now she is the only candidate for nomination. When another very high profile candidate for nomination announces their intentions in the coming days - that person will undoubtedly also be "gushed over".

knownothing knownothing's picture
edmundoconnor

I have to wonder why Freeland has chosen Toronto over Edmonton. With Edmonton, she can at least claim some local connection. I'll be interested to see quite how she claims to be connected with the riding. I hope it's not for cynical reasons, but she is running as a Liberal …

NGO work is nothing to sniff at, by the way (neither is a BA in Public Administration from Harvard, which Hollett also has). A polished speaker; a slick, stylish campaign; and a genuinely likeable person to boot. I'm not chair of her marketing team, but when I met her at Pride she was a genuinely nice person. It's great news that the NDP can attract such a person, especially in a riding the NDP would love to have, but has fallen short for various reasons in recent times. There is nothing to stop more interesting candidates throwing their hat into the ring as time goes on.

OnTheLeft OnTheLeft's picture

edmundoconnor wrote:

I have to wonder why Freeland has chosen Toronto over Edmonton. With Edmonton, she can at least claim some local connection. I'll be interested to see quite how she claims to be connected with the riding. I hope it's not for cynical reasons, but she is running as a Liberal …

Opportunism.

edmundoconnor wrote:

NGO work is nothing to sniff at, by the way. A polished speaker; a slick, stylish campaign; and a genuinely likeable person to boot. I'm not chair of her marketing team, but when I met her at Pride she was a genuinely nice person. It's great news that the NDP can attract such a person, especially in a riding the NDP would love to have, but has fallen short for various reasons in recent times. There is nothing to stop more interesting candidates throwing their hat into the ring as time goes on.

Being a polished speaker, having a slick campaign and being a nice person are meaningless, and certainly has no bearing on winning a by-election; whereas having genuine intellectual chops (and not just Ivy League degrees, which incidently [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zbXdUFi_3A]prominent Teabaggers[/url] have too), advocating policies which benefit the working-class and not just speaking in platitudes and excellent political instincts.

I'm highly skeptical of Hollett but will try to keep an open mind, but so far it's been a typical dumbed down NDP effort.

Stockholm wrote:

FYI, I think the so-called "party brass" and "apparachiks" you disparage are "gushing" about her because right now she is the only candidate for nomination. When another very high profile candidate for nomination announces their intentions in the coming days - that person will undoubtedly also be "gushed over".

If that's why you think they're doing it than it's pretty desperate of them.

socialdemocrati...

Between the two of them it's going to be a very competitive race. Both have a pretty solid media profile -- although the Liberals have a more friendly media at their beck and call.

PrairieDemocrat15

OnTheLeft wrote:

Don't get all the hype for Hollett. Appears to be nothing but a minor "celebrity" candidacy, espousing nothing more than platitudes at this point. Loads of style, support from the party brass and apparatchiks, but zero substance.

And Cythia Freeland is the biggest hypocrite in the world. After writing the book Plutocrats: Rise of the New Global Super Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else, she's running for the Liberals, the same Liberal Party that cut $100 billion in corporate taxes, embraced deregulation, privatization, gutted EI, cut CBC funding in half, supports and votes for Harper's odious China-Canada investment deal/FIPA etc.

Therein lies the secrect to the success of the Liberal party. Fooling people into believing that it is a progressive insitution. Justin Trudeau's claim that he is fighting for middle-class families and jobs is bellied by his support for the BC Liberal regime, the Chinese government takeover of Nexen, and the China-Canada FIPA.

Stockholm

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

Between the two of them it's going to be a very competitive race. Both have a pretty solid media profile -- although the Liberals have a more friendly media at their beck and call.

Hold your horses, apparently two or three other people will run for the NDP nomination - one of whom is very high profile.

Lens Solution

edmundoconnor wrote:

I have to wonder why Freeland has chosen Toronto over Edmonton.

Because that's where the by-election is ?  

And while she was born in Alberta, I think she most recently lived in Toronto before going to work in NYC.

Btw, according to Alice Funke of Pundit's Guide, Bob Rae's resignation only becomes official today, July 31st.  He apparently stayed on an extra month to finish constituency work.  (I guess that answers the question above we had about why Rae's vacancy wasn't yet listed on the parl.gc.ca website!)

terrytowel

According to John Ivison of National Post, Smithermann was pushed out in favor for Freeland, by party brass. Freeland is going to be parachuted in and Smithermann is said to be devestated. But keeping a stiff upper lip.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/07/30/john-ivison-justin-trudea...

Lens Solution

Kady O'Malley reports that Freeland has an impressive set of campaign managers in place, including current Toronto Centre MPP Glenn Murray and former Toronto Centre MP Bill Graham.

Looks like she means business and has brought in the big guns.  Won't be a campaign of amateurs, anyway.

 

http://www.cbc.ca/newsblogs/politics/inside-politics-blog/2013/07/its-of...

terrytowel

Lens Solution wrote:
Looks like she means business and has brought in the big guns.  Won't be a campaign of amateurs, anyway.

Seems like overkill. If she is uncontested for the nomination, why all this heavy artillery? It would be a walk in the park for her. She could even just put her name on the ballot, not campaign, and still win.

I feel sorry for George Smithermann. First losing Mayor, now this.

 

 

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