Support rabble | Advertise with us | Contact our staff | About rabble | Log-in or Register for a new account | Corrections | Privacy policy | Newsfeeds | Mailing lists
rabble: Features | Columnists | In Cahoots | Blogs | Books | Photos | What's Up | Polls
babble: Forum Topics | Active Topics
The rpn: Become a Podcaster | Find a Show
rabbleTV: Program Guide | Features | Indie Inside | Best of the net
Copyright © 2001-2012 the authors
Syndicate
In my neighbouring riding of Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, to beat the "Dr. Keith Martin" (Stockholm's least favourite MP) either Moe Sihota or Randall Garrison would be the best choices as NDP candidates. Troy de Souza is running again for the Conservatives, so this will be real tight 3-way race depending on who the NDP nominates to run in that riding.
Is there the slightest possibility that Sihota would run federally? He's been out of politics for quite a while.
I overheard someone chatting with a New Dem MP at convention about Sihota as a possibility. There were a bunch of ifs and buts that I didn't overhear.
The earlier rumour about Moe this summer was that he was going to run for BC NDP President at the November Convention in Vancouver - I heard that one from a few people. I have it on pretty good authority that Moe was approached to run federally in 2008, so it wouldn't surprise me if he was asked again this time.
I'd say the chances of Moe running in the next federal election are slim -maybe 15-20% at most, but Jack is great at convincing quality candidates to run - Broadbent was apparently firmly opposed to running in 2004 but Jack worked on him and he eventually came around. In this case, it also depends if Garrison is interested - he was just elected to Esquimalt City Council in Nov 2008 for the first time, so for him to run this fall in the federal would be awkward, and could hurt his municipal prospects if he lost the federal seat for the 3rd time.
Isn't it more likely to be a Liberal-Conservative race rather than a Liberal-NDP one?
When Michael Cassidy ran and won in Ottawa Centre in 1984, the NDP had placed a distant third in the 1980 election, so it has happened before that a third-place party wins a seat in a subsequent election.
Here in South Shore-St. Margaret's, it's almost certain that Gordon Earle will be putting his name forward again. At least there will be one less Conservative in Ottawa after the next election!
Stay tuned!
Isn't it more likely to be a Liberal-Conservative race rather than a Liberal-NDP one?
Not at all. In fact were it not for the inexplicable popularity of the untuous DOCTOR PROFESSOR Keith Martin, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca would fal to the NDP in a heart beat. The two provincial ridings that make it up both went NDP by gigantic margins in the last two provincial elections and the NDP came close to beating the champion of two tiered health care in 2004 and 2006. I think that in 08 the NDP suffered from having a new candidate there who wasn't as strong and the whole Julian West caper didn't help either. But if the pompous DOCTOR PROFESSOR announced he was retiring tmorrow - that seat would almost certainly go NDP in a flash.
Jennifer should have stayed running in SGI, and again I repeat, it was the fact that she was new to EJDF, that led to a lower vote, not that she is a weak candidate, by any means.
Having said that, Moe would be a great candidate, as would Randall. Though Moe's chances of taking it from Martin would be higher IMV.
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar is having their nomination meeting tomorrow, and Nettie Wiebe is the only declared candidate. Also Bruce Hyer will be re-nominated in TBay-Superior North, Thursday it's Claude Gravelle's turn in Nickel Belt and Glenn Thibeault in Sudbury.
The St. John's South-Mount Pearl nomination closes on the 15th. So far Ryan Cleary is the only name circulating.
Didn't Ryan Cleary nearly beat Siobhan Cody for the seat last year? It makes sense he would give it another go.
Any word on Grant Robertson in Huron-Bruce. (He's the current head of the NFU in Ontario and a little more practical on agricutural issues than someone like Nettie Wiebe as great as she is).
I was at a cattle market on Tuesday - just outside the riding- where he is know personally by a lot of people. The rumour was he was considering it, but I find that hard to beleive. I can imagine the NDP wanting him to run, but actually doing it given his position with the NFU seems unlikely.
one never knows - stay tuned.
I would have to believe the NDP would have to be putting money into the riding, but are they really that far thinking? That's a person that shipped around the province/country that could dramatically overcome the granola NDP image. Pratical, thoughtful, straightforward, fairly independent in a supportive way and the kind of guy you would expect to bump into at your kids sports game or at the local fair or whatever. Would the NDP really invest in someone like that? Hard to believe, but I would LOVE to see it. I'd even break out the old cheque book again.
stay posted
I think the NDP's problem right now is policies, not candidates. They are close in enough in several ridings that they could make gains just if they identified the differences between the demographics in their target ridings and those they already held and heavily tweaked the messaging to those much needed swing votes. Furthermore, as I have said many times before, the economy is the main issue and the NDP sounds quite incompetent on it. Thankfully for the NDP and Conservatives, the Liberals aren't doing much better. The Conservatives do sound the best on the economy right now, and they have the weight of the machineries of government behind them to do so. Jack, despite his crack pr team, has also been all over the map on his messaging recently. The NDP did a 180 when Ignatieff made his unlikely comment that he would vote down the government- all of a sudden now the NDP would consider working with the Conservatives. When the NDP does this, I'm inclined to agree with the Liberals, they really do show themselves as using their fourth place status as a crutch for avoiding tough decisions and looking exceedingly irrelevant all the while. That being said, no one is taking the NDP seriously these days so the only one likely to suffer any serious fallout from this affair is Michael Ignatieff. I think the NDP is most effective went it ably attacks its opponents on their supposed "cores" of their values. Unfortunately, they've only learned how to do that for the Liberals. Too bad the Liberals have already hit the second lowest vote % in their history. Time to go hunting somewhere else. Anyone remember when the NDP was polling second because the disunited right was polling in the low teens? Ah, those were the days. That being said, the NDP continues to impress with the great candidates they have been able to attract. I just hope those candidates' efforts and political capital isn't squandered.
Although I could agree with you on the need to round out economic policy competence, I disagree with you on the positioning aspect of what's unfolded in the last week or so.
In fact, I think it shows Layton's guile as a strategist, and why he's a ton smarter about this stuff than Iggy is (even though the Count gets an easier hand to play almost by definition as a Liberal). Layton used the opening to ensure that the NDP can never be blamed for not making Parliament work, or for coveting an election for self-interested reasons. If he'd been successful in getting something out of Harper, it would have proved how much more effective he was at negotiating for something tangible for Canadians than the Liberals were (who got nothing but a blue ribbon for all their agony). Since it appears he's not been successful (although I still think there are many shoes left to drop in this one), he still gets to take the high road of having tried to achieve something good for Canadians in advance of the one time that "who-caused-the-election" might actually become an issue.
But look at how many Liberal MPs were willing to talk off the record to John Ivison yesterday, and tell him that the caucus was dead set against an election, meanwhile Iggy strode out to make the announcement anyways. Now that several polls have them dropping, wouldn't you love to be a fly on the wall at the next caucus meeting. They live and die by the daily polls, and it will be killing them to see that.
Anyway, the fact that Jack took several days to respond probably meant that they were testing their best approaches before they made that key move. He's now talking about people wanting a "real government" that takes their problems seriously and "is on their side", and the response to the question seeking reaction on Jason Kenney's comments where he asked the reporter "where was he when he made that comment; in the school-yard?" was I thought probably quite deliberate, as I've heard the schoolyard theme come up several other times as well in relation to the functioning of the current Parliament. Taking a second look at the convention video again, I noticed another theme that they're having candidates use, about the NDP taking a "principled leadership" on various issues; another phrase I'd guess has emerged from research somewhere or another.
The problem when you have to get all your news from the national media is that it gets filtered through their rather caricatured (and very ill-informed) ideas about politics. Wherever possible, I try to watch the original tape, on CTV or elsewhere, so I can judge for myself.
I agree with OO - strategically Layton came out with "reach out" with "compromises" that Harper cons can't accept. It takes away the meme - just for power, causing the election, and so on.
Funny, the cons saying they are going to come out with reform to EI - didn't see some burning issue for beefing up maternity leave from the public, nor for adding in entrepeneurs.
I guess when the economy sucks, there is no jobs, people try to do start up businesses, but that hasn't been a part of the public outcry.
What I find interesting in focussing on job skills is that "training" means their has to be jobs to go to. And depending on how it is rolled out, it turns out to create jobs for training people but no jobs for the people getting all this training.
michael crawford wasn't a bad candidate, but one of the left councilors would be better (not bepple though). some famous hockey player, like mark recchi or something, would take the seat for the ndp (though even then, it would probably be pretty tight), but that's a dream.
Yeah, I was hoping that we'd nominate a Kamloops councillor this time around. But it looks like Crawford is back for his third try. He's a nice guy but unfortunately not the calibre of a Nelson Riis.
From Kamloops This Week:
The local NDP riding association had been on a candidate search for the last two months, but Crawford was the only individual to put his name forward.
I believe the nomination in TC is tonight - as far as I know Susan Wallace is the only one running. Unfortunately it seems that Bob Rae can refuse to campaign at all and still get 50% of the vote.
Didn't Ryan Cleary nearly beat Siobhan Cody for the seat last year? It makes sense he would give it another go.
Cleary missed it by 949 votes to the Liberal (her 3rd try). The result:
Liberal Siobhán Coady 14,920 43.32 +10.32
New Democrat Ryan Cleary 13,971 40.56 +18.87
Conservative Merv Wiseman 4,324 12.55 -32.13
Green Ted Warren 643 1.86 +1.23
Newfoundland and Labrador First Party (think Sasquatch Hunters) Greg Byrne 402 1.16
Independent Terry Christopher Butler 179 0.51
edit
New Democrats, and any party in Newfoundland and Labrador frankly, would be very happy to have Ray Johnson as a candidate.
He could be a lock for another NL New Dem seat in the Avalon riding.
I'm not sure why people are so down on the NDP's chances in Kamloops. Its one riding where the NDP vote has shown a steady upwards trajectory: In 2004 when the candidate was a blue collar guy we took 26%. Then when the aforementioned academic Michael Crawford became the candidate in 2006, his took the vote percentage up to 31% and then in 2008 while the NDP vote across BC dropped by 3%, Crawford bucked the trend and took the NDP vote up to 36%!
thanks stock for giving a balanced perspective. The orange team general has to run more than once and be way better than the others to win. It thus is no surprise why the calaber of our MPs is so much more than all the rest. They had to work really hard to get there as opposed to getting in due to the colour of their team.
also, I would like to add, I am not interested in having "star candidates" run who have no to little attachment to social democracy ideals and principles because they can get elected. They tend to turn out to be duds. So thinking that some hockey player would be good, well only if he comes with wit, wisdom, compassion to public service and social and economic justice that is at the heart of the NDP. If not, well he would just not be able to cut it, and be more apt to bring us down, disappoint, or cross the floor for greener pastures.
Here in South Shore-St. Margaret's, it's almost certain that Gordon Earle will be putting his name forward again. At least there will be one less Conservative in Ottawa after the next election!
Stay tuned!
There's no guarantee that the NDP will be able to beat Gerald Keddy - a lot of people thought it would happen last year and it didn't. It is certainly possible it can happen though if the NDP momentum from the provincial election carries over to the federal level.
I will be rooting for Gordon Earle, although Gerald Keddy is actually one of the better Conservatives. He was one of only a handful to vote for SSM in 2005.
I don't recall anyone thinking that the NDP was going to win South Shore-St. Margarets last year. They had a 4,000 vote margin to close after 2006 and the conventional wisdom was that the Tories were gaining ground compared to last time. At best it was seen as a long shot and I think most people were surprised that it was as close as it was.
I don't recall anyone thinking that the NDP was going to win South Shore-St. Margarets last year. They had a 4,000 vote margin to close after 2006 and the conventional wisdom was that the Tories were gaining ground compared to last time. At best it was seen as a long shot and I think most people were surprised that it was as close as it was.
There were many people on Election Prediction and Democratic Space and similar sites who predicted it could go NDP as far as I remember. I certainly thought it was possible myself.
Let me tell you something about those sites. Just about the only people who post there are campaign workers for local candidates and people trying to spin for the major parties. It can still be interesting to read - but bear in min d that that is all it is. All it takes is for two people to post a whole flurry of "predictions" about a certain riding and all of a sudden people think "oh boy look at what's happening in such and such a riding".
If I were running for parliament, the first thing I'd do is tell all my friends and family to go on electionprediction. org and create as many different identities as possible and write plausible sounding postings about what a good chance I had of winning.
I'm not sure what your point is anyways. Some people posting on those sites thought that SSM "could" go NDP. Well given that the NDP lost there by only 900 votes - they were right. Unlike all the Liberal staffers from Parliament Hill with way too much time on their hands who kept putting in endless posts about how Ottawa Centre was "certain" to go Liberal last time - and then the NDP won it by 9,000 votes.
Is there any word on whether Michael Byers is running again in Vancouver Centre? If the anti-HST backlash in BC hurts the Libs and Conservatives as badly as I expect it to, there is an outside chance a good NDP candidate in Centre could finally beat Hedy Fry. I'd prefer a progressive female candidate like Heather Deal or Andrea Reimer from Vancouver City Council, but Byers could bring some soft Liberal voters on side.
Is there any word on whether Michael Byers is running again in Vancouver Centre? If the anti-HST backlash in BC hurts the Libs and Conservatives as badly as I expect it to, there is an outside chance a good NDP candidate in Centre could finally beat Hedy Fry. I'd prefer a progressive female candidate like Heather Deal or Andrea Reimer from Vancouver City Council, but Byers could bring some soft Liberal voters on side.
Byers is not a good NDP candidate.
I think Byers is a very intelligent person, and while some intelligent people can have longer learning curves as candidates, they make very good candidates indeed after awhile. Moreover, it can take more than one campaign to win a seat. He would have a better chance improving our vote there in a second election than a brand new candidate would, in my opinion. Now, of course, I say that without knowing either of the two other names that have been mentioned, who are undoubtedly very intelligent people in their own right.
But, while I'm at it, Xtra West has a story saying that the Conservative candidate there (a Rachel Greenfeld) basically wants to ignore the queer vote during the campaign. It also says that the NDP is just starting its candidate search process in that riding.
A new 23-year-old candidate in Northumberland -- Quinte West. Patrick Clark is making a virtue of his youth:
"We can strengthen our communities by creating more opportunities for youth to stay and work in Northumberland- Quinte West, in particular, by creating green jobs and diversifying our local economy by supporting farmers and local businesses in this province."
A former volunteer, intern and organizer for Horizons of Friendship, the Northumberland YMCA and Amnesty International Canada, he has also taught English to migrant workers with Frontier College in Leamington.
“It’s the right time for young people like me to become involved in politics, and I believe I can make a serious contribution,” Clark said.
The 23-year-old winner of a Balsillie Fellowship at the School of International Affairs, University of Waterloo, will shortly complete an MA in global governance.
The nomination meeting is Sunday, 27 September.
Yes, I think there is a thread someone started (I think I already posted on it) about the Conservative candidate in Vancouver Centre saying she is not going to bother trying to win the gay vote from Hedy Fry.
As for Byers, he got the worst result for an NDP candidate in Vancouver Centre in several elections. Kennedy Stewart was a much stronger candidate and is the one who was strongest against Hedy Fry so far.
Amusing spin how the Liberals are "ready for a dogfight" in Hamilton - except they can't find candidates in the 3 ridings held by the NDP. We should have no problem holding on to these seats and gaining more across the country.
-------GO JACK GO!!!!
===============
Local Liberals gearing up for a dogfight
By Kevin Werner
News
Normal 0 0 1 384 2189 18 4 2688 11.0 0 0 0
Hamilton area Liberals are expected to get the okay from their federal party officials to start holding nomination meetings beginning next week.
Nithy Ananth, the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek federal Liberal riding association chief executive officer, and Ontario campaign co-chair, said the Liberal Party of Canada is expected to give the riding association’s preferred candidates by the weekend.
He said the Liberal candidate for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek will be known by the weekend, and a nomination meeting will be held within a week to acclaim the candidate. He said there will be no contested nomination.
Mr. Ananth, who was also chair of the search committee for the Hamilton East-Stoney Creek federal Liberal association, refused to reveal who will challenge incumbent NDP MP Wayne Marston. There were a number of names on Mr. Ananth’s list, including former Hamilton mayor Larry Di Ianni, the 2008 candidate, Ivan Luksic, who lost out to Mr. Di Ianni in the 2008 nomination meeting, and current Stoney Creek councillor Maria Pearson.
She has stated she is not interested in the position.
The Hamilton Mountain Liberals have also been searching for what some have said is a “high profile” candidate to take on NDP incumbent Chris Charlton. Offers have been extended to former Hamilton Mountain Liberal MPP Marie Bountrogianni, and former Lakeport Brewing CEO Teresa Cascioli, but were turned down.
Hamilton Centre Liberals were also left empty-handed when Ward 2 councillor Bob Bratina decided not to seek the nomination to challenge incumbent NDP MP David Christopherson.
....
----------
http://www.stoneycreeknews.com/news/article/188069
Yes, I think there is a thread someone started (I think I already posted on it) about the Conservative candidate in Vancouver Centre saying she is not going to bother trying to win the gay vote from Hedy Fry.
As for Byers, he got the worst result for an NDP candidate in Vancouver Centre in several elections. Kennedy Stewart was a much stronger candidate and is the one who was strongest against Hedy Fry so far.
I think you need to put that in the context of Adriane Carr having a high watermark campaign for the Greens there last time. I do not expect the Greens to poll as well this time, given the very high expectations they ratchetted up last time and how far they fell from them (and then again in the recent provincial election).
Byers, I believe, would be the kind of candidate who could draw from both Green and Liberal quarters, particularly if (once) Hedy Fry retires. Here's a situation where you really need to invest in a candidate for the future. The NDP has also elected a very bright up-and-coming MLA in part of that riding provincially, Spencer Herbert.
Sorry, I didn't notice the other thread on Van Centre, or I wouldn't have posted that link again.
Yes, I agree that Carr had an effect on the vote last time - but the point about being a strong candidate is that you need to be able to withstand those sort of events, and Byers was not able to do that. Carr also probably took some of Hedy's vote as she lost ground as well, but yet Hedy hung on. That is the sign of a strong candidate. Hedy was pulled by losing some votes to Mayencourt and some to Carr and yet she still won by 5,000 votes.
The NDP was surpassed by the Conservatives in a couple of other ridings that had been 2nd place NDP ridings until last year, such as Toronto Centre. In both VC and TC, the NDP will want to knock the Conservatives out of 2nd place in order to get back in the game.
Without any help from anyone else, the Conservatives ahve knocked themselve out of contention even for second place next time in either TC or VC.
Has the NDP nominated their candidate for Toronto Centre yet? I think the nomination was supposed to be this weekend. I believe last time the person who ran was an openly-gay Toronto lawyer.
Susan Wallace
She is the riding president I think.
Patrick has spent the last few years in Waterloo and has done a lot of work on our most recent campaigns. Far from a token candidate, he will surprise a lot of people, including the opposition. He's extremely bright, driven and thinks well on his feet. Good luck to him.
That said, I would have loved to have seen Russ Christiansen in Parliament.
I was reading somewhere that there are some rumours that Kevin Deveaux who was an NDP MLA in Dartmouth from 1998 to 2007 (he quit to take a job with the UN in Vietnam) is now back in Dartmouth and might run for the NDP against Mike Savage. If that were to happen, it could be a game changer in a riding that really ought to be NDP territory.
That would be sweet. When I was President of ONDY at the end of the 1980s, the two co-chairs of the NDP club at Osgoode Hall were Kevin Deveaux and Rachel Notley -- both of whom went on to be MLAs. Kind of makes me feel inadequate
Patrick has spent the last few years in Waterloo and has done a lot of work on our most recent campaigns. Far from a token candidate, he will surprise a lot of people, including the opposition. He's extremely bright, driven and thinks well on his feet. Good luck to him.
That said, I would have loved to have seen Russ Christiansen in Parliament.
I think Northumberland-Quinte West is likely to stay Conservative in the immediate future. Former Liberal MP Paul Macklin had a hard time trying to win back the riding last year and isn't running again. That kind of says it's going to be difficult for all parties to dislodge the Conservatives there right now.
Byers has a book on the Arctic coming out next month whikch should help to give him a boost. Someone suggested that a star candidate like Byers might do better running in one of the other ridings, perhaps SGI.
That would be sweet. When I was President of ONDY at the end of the 1980s, the two co-chairs of the NDP club at Osgoode Hall were Kevin Deveaux and Rachel Notley -- both of whom went on to be MLAs. Kind of makes me feel inadequate
Then RUN for gosh-sakes, Scott ! I think you know where to send the request for a donation.
Byers has a book on the Arctic coming out next month whikch should help to give him a boost. Someone suggested that a star candidate like Byers might do better running in one of the other ridings, perhaps SGI.
Yes, I'm sure it will be a bestseller among the constituents of Vancouver Centre.
I'm saving myself for the 2010 Municipal (donations can be sent as of January 4, when I plan to register). But, I have run for MP twice... in both 1988 and 1993.
I know, I know. Anyways, get back to me on Jan 5.
Kevin Deveaux just got here and isn't here full time yet, so there's not much chance he'll be running if the election is now.
Did you hear that rumour at Convention?
Kevin Deveaux just got here and isn't here full time yet, so there's not much chance he'll be running if the election is now.
Did you hear that rumour at Convention?
Ken, that rumour was an article in Saturday's edition of the Comically Horrid...ooops, I meant the Chronicle Herald! It's in the political round-up article every Saturday.
I was a New Democrat youth in 1985 when I met Kevin at the provincial NDP Convention that created the N.S. YND, and I worked on his leadership bid in 2001. He'd be a fantastic candidate, but I think he lives in Peter Stoffer's riding, unless he's relocated. Should Peter decide to retire in a few more years, Kevin would be a great choice for successor.
And in case you didn't know, the South Shore-St. Margaret's NDP nominating meeting is on September 27th, and Gordon Earle will be seeking the nomination again!
Gerald Keddy is about to join his wife, Judy Stretch, in looking for a new line of work soon!
There's no guarantee that Gerald Keddy will lose his seat - people thought he would lose last time and he hung on. Hopefully the NDP will win though since it will be one less Conservative nationally.
Keddy is one of the better Conservative MP's though, so it's a shame that the riding isn't occupied by a more loathsome Conservative instead.
I haven't heard anything about St. Paul's. Hopefully they'll be getting to work on it soon after the byelection.
Keddy is one of the better Conservative MP's though, so it's a shame that the riding isn't occupied by a more loathsome Conservative instead.
"loathsome Conservative"?
Rather redundant, don't you think?
Brian Masse could be in real trouble in Windsor West if this guy wins the Liberal nomination.
Brian Masse could be in real trouble in Windsor West if this guy wins the Liberal nomination.
Well it would be nice to see a competitive race in Windsor for a change, don't you think?
The NDP has been creaming the Liberals there ever since Jean Chretien foolishly sent Herb Gray into early retirement.
Marc Laferriere is running for the nomination in Brant riding.
you can put a comment in the Brant paper and it also has a thumbs up and down category. Let's give him a boost.
Looks like the NDP has nominated a fantastic candidate Jasbir Sandhu in Surrey North who should easily beable to beat a non-entity like Dona Cadman.
http://www.straight.com/article-258492/ndp-nominates-komagata-maru-activ...
How about this guy? Not interested? Too damaged?
Looks like the NDP has nominated a fantastic candidate Jasbir Sandhu in Surrey North who should easily beable to beat a non-entity like Dona Cadman.
http://www.straight.com/article-258492/ndp-nominates-komagata-maru-activ...
You may be right that the NDP can take that riding back. I was surprised at how weak the NDP candidate was there last year. I remember seeing him interviewed and he could barely put a coherent sentence together.
I hope the NDP takes the riding back from the Cons as well.
Are you sure you were not confused with listening to a Dion speech?
If Cadman stays she will keep it.
Not sure why you are making an unnecessary swipe at Dion - it reveals a mean streak.
Obviously we were talking about the NDP candidate in Surrey North last year. Most people, including Stockholm and others, know he was a very weak candidate that caused the NDP to lose the seat.
How can you know that Cadman is guaranteed to win? She barely won last year. And that doesn't show much confidence in the NDP.
Yeah, Dona Cadman is NOT her husnand and by all accounts ahe has been missing in action since winning. If she was only able to win by 900 votes over a really weak NDP candidate last time, imagine what happens to her when she's up against a top notch NDP candidate. It will be especially helpful to have an NDP candidate who is an Indo-Canadian in a riding that is something like 35% Sikh. The NDP candidate last time was Lebanese and they are a very tiny community there.
If so, then your comment to which I was responding, shows a mean streak too. Infact moreso, as I was indicating how you were standing in a glass house.
Yep, just as people knew Dion was a weak candidate, that caused the Liberals to lose many seats.
Incumbent will stay as voter numbers will fall further. has nothing to do with no confidence and everything to do with people being sick of elections.
so you think that every single solitary incumbent MP will be automatically re-elected and that the composition of the next house of commons will be IDENTICAL to what we have now.
Nope
How about this guy? Not interested? Too damaged?
Possibly not interested, but not too damaged in the right riding. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a call from Iggy too - though they'd have more trouble finding him somewhere.
If so, then your comment to which I was responding, shows a mean streak too. Infact moreso, as I was indicating how you were standing in a glass house.
There's no glass house - I pointed out what many people, including those in the NDP have said themselves - the NDP candidate in Surrey North last year was weak and inarticulate and the next one will be a lot stronger. That was the subject of discussion here - you decided to bring in an attack on Dion out of the blue that had nothing to do with the discussion.
Nedver saw 1 person in this thread talk about a weak NDP candidate that was inarticulate, you brought that up. I responded accordingly.
How about this guy? Not interested? Too damaged?
Possibly not interested, but not too damaged in the right riding. I wouldn't be surprised if he got a call from Iggy too - though they'd have more trouble finding him somewhere.
As a Liberal, replacing Tonks in YS-W? (After all, Miller ran there provincially as Rae's replacement in a 1996 byelection. Lost to...Gerard Kennedy.)
Nedver saw 1 person in this thread talk about a weak NDP candidate that was inarticulate, you brought that up. I responded accordingly.
If it were somebody of more favourable partisan profile than Debater who brought it up, would you still have "responded accordingly" in such a manner?
Nedver saw 1 person in this thread talk about a weak NDP candidate that was inarticulate, you brought that up. I responded accordingly.
Stockholm mentioned above that he was a weak candidate and I agreed with him. I just added that he was an inarticulate candidate, because he was that as well.
I was agreeing with Stockholm that the next candidate will be stronger, and that I would like him to win. Not sure why you couldn't just agree with us.
Anyway, I won't debate the point further.
The NDP is getting a cash infusion!
"Singer-activist Andrew Cash announced that he is seeking the NDP nomination in Davenport, a Liberal-held riding. "
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/where-exactly-is-georgian-b...
Looks like the NDP has nominated a fantastic candidate Jasbir Sandhu in Surrey North who should easily beable to beat a non-entity like Dona Cadman.
I recall you saying the same thing about Rachid Arab when he was nominated during the 2008 election when three candidates were vying for the Surrey North nomination. This time around Sandhu was the acclaimed candidate. I've never heard of him before but apparently he has been active within the party for over 20 years.
Surrey North does not have a large contingent of Indo-Canadians - 25% at the most. It's not like heavily Indo-Canadian Newton-North Delta further south. Surrey North has lower income demographics akin to some areas of Vancouver East and so it's a natural NDP fit. Yet this is still Surrey with its historical populist leanings.
While not a Con seat, the name Cadman still resonates within the community and Cadman is now an incumbent, a little bit more difficult to turf. And the Cadman/Harper scandal seems to be long forgotten. Still will probably be a close race though.
A fantastic candidate? That would be Fin Donnelly in New Westminster-Coquitlam!
Go and search every posting I've ever put in babble and you will find nothing from me saying that Rachid Arab was a "fantastic" candidate. I know absolutely nothing about him. If anything I was lamenting that the NDP nominated someone so low profile and last minute in a riding that they had won the previous election by 7,000 votes.
What does make Surrey North a top target is that Cadman won it very narrowly last time when Tory support across BC was at an all-time high of 44%. Every poll recently has them down 8-10 points from that level - and the NDP has a golden opportunity to tar the federal Tories with the HST brush in BC as well.
It mkes sense that Sandhu was acclaimed. I read that he was wooed for a long time by the NDP and that he was publicly endorsed by Penny Priddy and by Sue Hammell and Bruce Ralston the BC NDP members for the ridings that make up Surrey North (both of whom incidentally won over 70% of the vote in May) - who would be crazy enough to run against a juggernaut like that?
PS: According to Statistics Canada, 54% of the population of the federal riding of Surrey North is "visible minority" and the vast majority of that is South Asian.
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/cen06/profiles/detail_b/FED59028.pdf
Newton-North Delta ranks 15th in the country, while Surrey North ranks 19, if you go on percentages. Both are pretty high on that score, as it turns out. In raw numbers NND places 16, while Surrey North goes down to 25. In other words, overall they're both pretty significant on that basis.
I think both ridings are interesting and have potential.
"Singer-activist Andrew Cash announced that he is seeking the NDP nomination in Davenport, a Liberal-held riding. "
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/where-exactly-is-georgian-bay-ms-ablonczy/article1302515/
So, does anyone know what the drummer from L'Etranger is doing? Does he live in a winnable riding?
John Bouche has been confirmed as the NDP Candidate in Brandon-Souris.
Gordon Earle was nominated again this afternoon to be the NDP candidate in South Shore-St. Margaret's.
After finished 3rd in the 2004 election, 4814 votes behind Gerald Keddy, to a close 2nd in 2008, just 932 votes behind Keddy, plus the fact that the NDP swept all 5 provincial seats that make up S.S.S.M., I can see a big change coming on the electoral map after the next election!
Gordon Earle has a shot at winning, but he has run multiple times now and I think this may be his final shot at it. We also don't know whether the results provincially will translate federally, particularly if the momentum from the provincial election dies out by the time of the next federal election.
It would be nice to see one less Conservative MP though (but as I mentioned last time, Keddy is one of the most socially-liberal Conservatives).
What value is it to have a "socially liberal" Tory MP? We had the free vote on same sex marriage a couple of years ago. End of story. Keddy had that one moment of expressing some social liberalism - now he gets to be one of Harper's trained seals for every single solitary vote to come.
I'll not shed a tear to see him lose. If he were truly a "social liberal" he wouldn;t agree to be an MP in Harper's caucus.
particularly if the momentum from the provincial election dies out by the time of the next federal election.
Do we think this is going to happen faster or slower than the momentum of Iggy-mania died down (say about 9 months)?
Just asking ...
Gordon Earle has a shot at winning, but he has run multiple times now and I think this may be his final shot at it. We also don't know whether the results provincially will translate federally, particularly if the momentum from the provincial election dies out by the time of the next federal election.
It would be nice to see one less Conservative MP though (but as I mentioned last time, Keddy is one of the most socially-liberal Conservatives).
Yah I remember when he knocked off your boy Regan before the redistriced Earl out of the ridding. Ouch!
Just asking ...
I'd estimate about 4 to 1 odds that the NSNDP honeymoon lasts at least twice as long as did Iggy-mainia. [Even if you do generously count the latter as 9 months.]
There was a phenomenon called Iggymania? Did I blink and miss it?
yes Scott - Iggy is in mania right now - and he is lovin it - liberal style.
I see that according to Pundit's Guide, the NDP have the highest percentage of female candidates again, not including the so-called Green Party.
Too bad Count Ignatieff thinks that appointing female candidates is a step ahead.
Gordon Earle has a shot at winning, but he has run multiple times now and I think this may be his final shot at it. We also don't know whether the results provincially will translate federally, particularly if the momentum from the provincial election dies out by the time of the next federal election.
It would be nice to see one less Conservative MP though (but as I mentioned last time, Keddy is one of the most socially-liberal Conservatives).
Yah I remember when he knocked off your boy Regan before the redistriced Earl out of the ridding. Ouch!
My boy Regan? He ain't my boy. And what's with the snippy remark?
The main point I was making is that I would prefer seeing a more right-wing Conservative MP in the Maritimes go down (like Rob Moore) than Gerald Keddy.
I got a call that the Davenport nomination is on Monday and Andrew Cash, the musician and journalist is to be acclaimed
http://andrewcash.net/
Hey Folks
Indeed I have decided to run in the next federal election for the NDP in the riding of Davenport.
I’d like to invite you for some music and some words and to generally celebrate the kick off of the campaign at my nomination meeting:
Monday October 5, 7:00 pm sharp (doors open 6:30) New Horizons Auditorium 1140 Bloor St. West (at Dufferin subway station)
I look forward to seeing you there. It would be an honour.
Apparently Charlie Angus will be there as will Andrea Horwath and I think Layton as well. Should be fun.
Mark Austin is the candidate in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley.
He has very impressive business credentials, holds a Masters Degree in International Law of Human Rights, is the grandson of a Springhill coal miner, a cancer survivor, and a member of numerous community groups.
Plus, he was approached by two other parties to run for them, but chose the NDP.
I can see the momentum from the Nova Scotia provincial election carrying over to C.C.M.V. with a candidate of this quality on the ballot!
Could quite plausibly have been three other parties, had the federal Progressive Conservatives still existed (seriously).
Re Andrew Cash, that'd be an interesting variation on the married-couples-in-Parliament trivia question (cf. Layton/Chow, Grewal): bandmates (current or former) in Parliament...
Bill Siksay was acclaimed at a nomination meeting today in Burnaby Douglas. Both the Liberals and Conservatives have chosen to run right wing candidates of Chinese descent. A perfect storm for us to hold this seat again.
good - thanks kropotkin1951.
With Andrew Cash apparently about to be acclaimed as NDP candidate in Davenport, does anyone think it would be possible for Jack Layton to get ex-Barenaked Ladies singer Steven Page to run as a candidate in a Scarbourough riding?
You must be forgetting, or unaware of, Page's still recent cocaine bust.
I was just reading that Barbara Warner wants to run for the NDP in Beaches-East York. I believe she lives in the riding and is currently solicitor for the City of Oshawa. I think she would be a great person to run there.
She is the daughter of former Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP) and Speaker of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario David William Warner.
Barbara holds a Bachelor of Arts (Highest Honours / summa cum laude) in English Literature and Political Science from Carleton University, a Bachelor of Laws from Dalhousie Law School, and was admitted to the bar in 2001 by the Law Society of Upper Canada. She spent more than 15 years involved with community and specialty legal aid clinics in Ontario and in Nova Scotia, before moving to an in-house municipal law practice for a large municipality in the Greater Toronto Area. She has also worked for the Legislative Assembly of Ontario, the Government of Canada, and a variety of not-for-profit organisations.
Most recently, Warner was a litigation associate on contract at Iler Campbell, a Toronto law firm whose work centres on helping non-profits, charities, religious organisations and people with progressive causes.[1]
Barbara is also mother to twin daughters, born at Toronto East General Hospital. Barbara is married to web developer Julian Warner Egelstaff, co-founder of a non-profit IT company, Freeform Solutions.[2]
I was just reading that Barbara Warner wants to run for the NDP in Beaches-East York. I believe she lives in the riding and is currently solicitor for the City of Oshawa. I think she would be a great person to run there.
Good substitute in case Churley's worn out her welcome. (BTW she ran provincially in SSW in '03.)
BTW: The Andrew Cash nomination was very successful, there must have been 200 people there including a few people from Blue Rodeo and almost $20,000 was raised for the campaign! Cash gave a very earnest and very sincere speech and it was a good feeling all around...
thanks Stock - good to know.
Ian Nichols is the NDP Candidate for Haldimand Norfolk.
This is the first time in more then 30 years that an NDP candidate has ran the same candidate.
Barbara Warner sounds like a credible candidate for Beaches-East York. Good to see Marilyn Churley moving on. I'm not her biggest fan, but she could do a real service by getting rid of Case Ootes.
St. Paul's I don't think that Marilyn has moved on, as perhaps another potential candidate is considering.
continued here
The main point I was making is that I would prefer seeing a more right-wing Conservative MP in the Maritimes go down (like Rob Moore) than Gerald Keddy.
Rob Moir would make a great MP too, but its a tough, tough riding. He's only a professor and the President of the Atlantic Canada Economics Association...but you know, we don't know anything about the economy.
Things are pretty quiet in terms of nominations in NB though. Too quiet.
Brian Masse could be in real trouble in Windsor West if this guy wins the Liberal nomination.
Sadly, that link shows he is now running for Mayor instead.
Closing, please continue in the new thread.