Federal polling - May 1, 2011

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NorthReport
Federal polling - May 1, 2011

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NorthReport

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

May 1 / Nanos / 37.0% / 30.6% / 22.7% / 5.5%

Apr 30 / Leger M / 36% / 31% / 21% / 7% / NDP now only 5% out of first place
Apr 30 / Angus R / 37.0% / 33.0% / 19.0% / NDP now only 4% out of first place
Apr 30 / Nanos / 38.0% / 29.6% / 23.3% / 5.2%
Apr 29 / Ipsos R / 38.0% / 33.0% / 18.0% / 7% / NDP within 5% of first place
Apr 29 / EKOS / 34.5% / 29.7% / 20.0% / 6.3% / NDP withing 4.8% of first place
Apr 29 / Nanos / 36.4% / 31.2% / 22.0% / 5.7% / NDP within 5.2% of first place
Apr 28 / Harris D / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 5% of first place
Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1%
Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place
Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place
Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / NDP within 3% of first place
Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%
Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place
Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%
Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%
Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /
Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /
Apr 20 / Ipsos R / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%
Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

NorthReport

Another happy day for Jack Layton Smile

 

Nanos Research Polling - 3 days ending April 30

 

NDP gains 2% on Cons overnite

Cons - 37%, Down !% 

NDP - 30.6%, Up 1% 

Libs - 22.7%, Down 0.6%

Bloc - 5.5%, Up 0.3%  

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110430-BallotE.pdf

NorthReport

Vote has become referendum on Harper

 

Standard parliamentary practice, that. But Harper made it sound like a coup being hatched by the opposition.

Including even the Bloc Québécois in a parliamentary partnership would not be all that scandalous, says eminent historian Desmond Morton of McGill University. "The separatists are Canadian citizens and Canadian voters. They have a right to have their voice heard in Parliament. We hear it in Quebec all the time, so it had better be heard in Ottawa and English Canada."

But the "Harper-ization of our minds" (in the memorable phrase of John Meisel of Queen's University) has been such that it tripped up even Ignatieff, as he tried to run as far as he could from the very notion of a coalition.

However, Canadians quickly caught on to Harper's politics of division, his contempt of Parliament, his bully tactics (symbolized by students being thrown out of Tory rallies), abuse of power and misuse of the treasury in showering tens of millions of dollars on ridings and groups with the sole purpose of advancing the partisan Conservative cause.

Ordinary citizens have turned the election into a referendum on Harper - specifically, on a Harper majority. Their answer to his fanning the fears of "reckless coalition" post-election was to forge one at the grassroots level, now.

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/983302--siddiqui...

 

nicky

Apart from Ekos, what other polls can we expect today?

northman_08

It appears that the kleenex gate affair has had no affect or back fired!!!!  I hate Harper. 

Ciabatta2

Hopefully it won't have an effect but at least on radio it is one of the top newstories of the past two days, even on CBC radio

NorthReport

Compas, Robbins, & Kouvalis. Laughing

Actually nicky that's a good question but I have no idea.

 

nicky wrote:

Apart from Ekos, what other polls can we expect today?

Krago

Nanos is polling this afternoon and coming out with a final report tonight.

 

Also, Nanos released their Leadership Index this morning.  Layton took a HUGE jump upward:

 

LEADERSHIP INDEX - 4:00 pm
Canada Trendline [PDF]

Layton
97.4
+16.9

Harper
88.0
-6.5

Ignatieff
39.1
-6.1

May
8.7
-3.1

Duceppe
8.0
-1.5

(April 30)

josh

Ekos and, apparently, Abacus, also will be coming out.

 

http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.com/2011/05/nanos-tories-by-64.html

 

janfromthebruce

Canadians want Jack Layton to be Prime Minister - get out the vote!

 

Krago wrote:

Nanos is polling this afternoon and coming out with a final report tonight.

 

Also, Nanos released their Leadership Index this morning.  Layton took a HUGE jump upward:

 

LEADERSHIP INDEX - 4:00 pm
Canada Trendline [PDF]

Layton
97.4
+16.9

Harper
88.0
-6.5

Ignatieff
39.1
-6.1

May
8.7
-3.1

Duceppe
8.0
-1.5

(April 30)

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

josh

Backlash from the Sun smear story.

NorthReport

Gap between Tories, NDP narrows to 6 points in 11th-hour polling

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/gap-between-tories-ndp-narr...

nicky

Graves and Nanos have both indicated that their final polls will show a "tightening."

 

"The Conservative advantage over the NDP in the three day rolling average has diminished from eight to six points. Please note that we have seen a tightening of the race looking at the one day Saturday numbers but will need to wait to see what the results are for Sunday."

 

What a wild ride. I have witnessed 2 other NDP sweeps, Dave Barrett in 1972 and what's his name in 1990. This feels so similar.

Northern-54

Abacus Poll:

Conservative 37%

NDP 32%

Liberal 18%

Green 7%

BLOC 7%

 

Regionals (small samples):

Atlantic

NDP 34%

Conservative 32%

LIberal 26%

Green 8%

 

Quebec

NDP 40%

BLOC 27%

Liberal 14%

Conservative 13%

Green 6%

 

Ontario

Conservative 41%

NDP 29%

Liberal 25%

Green 6%

 

Prairies

Conservative 56%

NDP 26%

Liberal 11%

Green 7%

 

Alberta

Conservative 67%

NDP 21%

Liberal 6%

Green 6%

 

British Columbia

NDP 40%

Conservative 40%

Green 11%

Liberal 10%

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

Wow those are great numbers in BC, but what about the prairies, it is impossible to get a decent poll number out here in Saskatchewan

vermonster

Re: the Abacus poll

Remember that their total sample size coast to coast is too small (1,007) to take a lot of their regional breakdowns too seriously -- their Prairies (Man & Sask) number is based on 77 respondents, in the Atlantic region it is 83, Alberta 104 and even BC only 129. 

So while the national numbers simply are another confirmation of what every other pollster is finding about the state of the race, there is very limited value in trying to draw many conclusions based on the regional numbers.

 

edmundoconnor

Quote:

Mr. Layton climbed 17 points, to 97, on the Nanos Leadership Index, which measures perceptions of the leaders' trustworthiness, competence and vision for Canada.

That compared to 88 for Mr. Harper and 39 points for Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.

"The one-day polling completed on the same day that the massage-parlour story broke showed that Jack Layton's score improved, including perceptions related to trust," said Mr. Nanos.

"This suggests that the story in fact helped Jack Layton," he added. "A number of Canadians likely viewed it as a deliberate political smear."

 

bekayne

Here's the details of COMPAS:

http://compas.ca/data/110501-FedElectionPoll-EPCB.pdf

 

BC

Con  48, NDP  29, Lib  15, Grn  8

Prairies

Con  71, NDP 20, Lib 5, Grn 4

Ontario

Con 48, Lib 25, NDP 22, Grn 4

Quebec

NDP 38, BQ 32, Con 15, Lib 14, Grn 1

Atlantic

NDP 45, Con 44, Lib 11

Centrist

Northern-54 wrote:

Abacus Poll:

 

British Columbia

NDP 40%

Conservative 40%

Green 11%

Liberal 10%

 

 

That mirrors the 39% for the NDP in BC that ARS showed a few days ago! BTW, the NDP's all-time high in BC was 37% in 1988 when it took 19/32 seats.

Centrist

Forum Research Poll: (3,789 sample size)

Con: 35%

NDP: 33%

Lib: 19%


Atlantic:

NDP: 30%

Con: 31%

LIb: 26%

 

Quebec:

NDP: 33%

BQ: 21%

Con: 16%

Lib: 13%

[Montreal - NDP at 49%!!!]

 

Ontario:

Con: 36%

NDP: 31%

Lib: 25%


Saskitoba:

Con: 45%

NDP: 33%

Lib: 15%

 

BC:

Con: 39%

NDP: 37%

Lib: 15%

 

http://hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/ndp_tories_in_virtual_dead_heat_ei...

Stockholm

I think something is not quite right about the Quebec number for the NDP. It only adds up to 83% province-wide and I suspect the Green party is NOT at 17% in Quebec. Also, its almost impossible for the NDP to be at 49% in Montreal and only be at 33% across the province since almost half of Quebec is in Montreal. I think they meant 43% bot 33% for the NDP across Quebec.

Northern-54

Stockholm wrote:

I think something is not quite right about the Quebec number for the NDP. It only adds up to 83% province-wide and I suspect the Green party is NOT at 17% in Quebec. Also, its almost impossible for the NDP to be at 49% in Montreal and only be at 33% across the province since almost half of Quebec is in Montreal. I think they meant 43% bot 33% for the NDP across Quebec.

 

I think you are right.  Not only can "others" not be at 17%,  I don't see how the NDP could be at 33% nationally and be at 33% in Quebec when you consider what a wasteland Alberta is for NDP votes.

nicky

"The poll, the last of a series of surveys Forum Research has conducted in collaboration with The Hill Times through the campaign, shows the massive shift of Quebec voters to the NDP two weeks ago has held, as the party registered 33 support in the province, with nearly half of Montreal voters, 49 per cent, saying they have decided or are likely to support the NDP."

Since the NDP got 40% in Quebec in the last Forum poll it seems likely that the real figure is 43%.
Craig Oliver has just said that his sources tell him the NDP will get 40 seats in Quebec.

Stockholm

Maybe he meant to say the NDP was at 49% in Montreal and 33% in the rest of Quebec.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Nicky:

Thanks for the great commentary. Are you a Poitical Scientest or studying Political Science. Your comments have been rather restrained, but insightful. Thanks for sharing them.

I have to say, this site has been a real g-d-send for me. It is great to find a real oasis of sanity in the world of madness.

Thanks everyone.

Policywonk

I agree. If the NDP were at 33% the Bloc would have come up a great deal. That's just not on. If the Prairie numbers are correct there will be a couple of seats in Saskatchewan besides Nettie Wiebe. Also Ontario, 36 percent isn't going to net the Conservatives enough seats for any where close to a majority, and we will pick up a number of seats from both them and the Liberals. Where's Alberta? They say the results were unchanged frm last time (58 CON, 21 NDP, 13 LIB, 7 GRN) Hold on to your hats, this will depend on getting the vote out. I don't see the Conservatives getting 147 seats with this; more like 135 at most. The last night for Nanos must have been reasonably good. Is EKOS coming out with one more?

nicky

Thanks Arthur. I am a lowly criminal defence lawyer but I am trying to pay close attention to the election this time, particularly in Quebec.

I enjoyed your contribution to Cross Country Checkup last week.

nicky

Carig Oliver, bless him, has just predicted an NDP minority government. He had a mischevious smile when he said it but even so.....

Policywonk

Stockholm wrote:

Maybe he meant to say the NDP was at 49% in Montreal and 33% in the rest of Quebec.

That makes sense; probably a little over 40% in Quebec overall.

Stockholm

nicky wrote:

Carig Oliver, bless him, has just predicted an NDP minority government. He had a mischevious smile when he said it but even so.....

 

The shredding machines must be working like crazy at the PMO and PCO to destroy evidence of all the Tory dirty tricks and corruption.

Anonymouse

As the Afghan detainees issue shows, the Tories don't keep records of their misdeeds. They ask senior public servants not to take records...of course this is a violation of government record-keeping rules (laws?) Also, all cabinet decisions are state secrets for 30(?) years. It will be hard finding usable dirt. That being said, Treasury Board might help to show how they spread political pork, as might Public Works, and I'm sure foreign affairs and CIDA will have a lot of tales about the files that got held back.

Stockholm

nicky wrote:

Craig Oliver, bless him, has just predicted an NDP minority government. He had a mischevious smile when he said it but even so.....

I wonder if he was seriously predicting that the NDP would be the largest party or if he meant that an NDP minority government would take power after the election (even if the Tories have more seats)

edmundoconnor

Stockholm wrote:

The shredding machines must be working like crazy at the PMO and PCO to destroy evidence of all the Tory dirty tricks and corruption.

If we get in, we'll find the cupboard bare. It will be Saskatchewan in 1944 all over again. 

howeird beale

Stockholm wrote:

nicky wrote:

Carig Oliver, bless him, has just predicted an NDP minority government. He had a mischevious smile when he said it but even so.....

 

The shredding machines must be working like crazy at the PMO and PCO to destroy evidence of all the Tory dirty tricks and corruption.

 

I'm thinking they're working overtime at the RCMP where Harpo appointed a political hack who'd never been a cop.

He got his kicks humiliating the senior brass.

I'm thinking those mounties who had to put up with him know something about evidence control, making copies, building cases...

It's gonna hurt, Steve!

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

edmundoconnor wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

The shredding machines must be working like crazy at the PMO and PCO to destroy evidence of all the Tory dirty tricks and corruption.

If we get in, we'll find the cupboard bare. It will be Saskatchewan in 1944 all over again. 

Or Saskatchewan in 1991. Of course that time they actually sent some of the bastards off to jail.

Anonymouse

bagkitty wrote:

edmundoconnor wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

The shredding machines must be working like crazy at the PMO and PCO to destroy evidence of all the Tory dirty tricks and corruption.

If we get in, we'll find the cupboard bare. It will be Saskatchewan in 1944 all over again. 

Or Saskatchewan in 1991. Of course that time they actually sent some of the bastards off to jail.

But that doesn't stop the media from quoting Grant Devine in mâfèn like this, with absolutely no reference to his checkered past.

Skeena13

I've been lurking here a few days now - love the discussions.

Someone mentioned that pollsters weight the poll results based on a demographic group's participation... Presumably based on past elections.. So if a particular group (young people, etc) actually showed up, the polls would not account for the impact of these "new voters". Right??

bekayne

Skeena13 wrote:
Someone mentioned that pollsters weight the poll results based on a demographic group's participation... Presumably based on past elections.. So if a particular group (young people, etc) actually showed up, the polls would not account for the impact of these "new voters". Right??

They weight them by their actual share of the population. The polls you're seeing assume that youngsters will vote at the same rate as oldsters

JeffWells

Any word on Ekos? Thought they were supposed to release at 2:00 Eastern.

Policywonk

That may not be true of all the polls. There may also be other reasons that polling might be skewed to older people, such as the use of landlines, etc.

northman_08

The other interesting factor ii ho wmany young people they are finding with cell phones...  The ndp is when the under45 age.  That coul dmake things even closer..

edmundoconnor

JeffWells wrote:

Any word on Ekos? Thought they were supposed to release at 2:00 Eastern.

There's nothing on Frank Graves' Twitter feed since last night.

samuelolivier

northman_08 wrote:

The other interesting factor ii ho wmany young people they are finding with cell phones...  The ndp is when the under45 age.  That coul dmake things even closer..

I've been thinking about it for a few days and I really think that the young anti-Harper voters can turn to the polls this time around and cause some big surprises. That would be such an amazing revolution ;)

Anonymouse

EKOS 34 CPC 31 NDP

Update: CPC 34.6 NDP 31.4 link

Update2: CPC 34.6 NDP 31.4 LIB 20.4 GRN 6.3 BQ 5.4

QC NDP 39.9 BQ 22.8 LIB 15.2 CPC 14.6

BC NDP 36.5 CPC 36.3 LIB 15.3 GRN 9.3

ON CPC 39.8 LIB 26.7 NDP 26.2

link 

JeffWells

EKOS is out: 34.8/32.4.

http://ipolitics.ca/

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Weird that the bottom link to EKOS doesn't even mention Ontario.  Were you able to see what they said about it, anonymouse?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Does anyone know how Sask and MB look?

edmundoconnor

0.5% behind the Liberals on the day before election day. In Ontario. Wow.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Kind of flat in the south, wheat fields, some lakes, and they've got some polar bears up at the top...Oh, did you mean something else?

Anonymouse

The full Ekos report has yet to be published but those numbers are very good for the NDP. If the NDP actually beat the Conservatives in the BC popular vote, the Conservatives could lose up to 9 seats and the seat where Reform-Alliance-Conservative-Liberal MP Keith Martin is retiring.

The NDP numbers mean the Conservatives could lose up to 7 seats in QC plus André Arthur's seat (hence -8)

The numbers are not reported but the NDP is apparently in first place (yet again) in Atlantic Canada. That could cost the Conservatives another 3-4 seats.

The NDP is supposedly unmoved in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This could cost the Conservatives up to 3 seats in Alberta and up to 4 (more likely 2) in Saskatchewan. Hence -7 but if the numbers for Saskatchewan are wrong, many more.

The NDP is supposedly up in Manitoba. Unless the numbers are WAY up, sadly the Conservatives are probably safe here.

So...Conservatives down 9+8+4+7+ 12 seats needed for a majority = 40 seats short of a majority....all of which would have to be made up in Ontario in other words, they would need to win 90 out of Ontario's 106 seats (the NDP holds 19 right now).

In other words, if this poll is right, there is NO way the CPC win a majority. In fact, it is credibly a race between the NDP and CPC to see who wins the most seats. Remember if the NDP finishes first in that race, it gets the first shot at forming government.

It's not enough to hope, let's work hard tomorrow!

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