Federal polling - May 1, 2011

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josh

The Ontario numbers are a bit worrisome in terms of the number of Con seats, but they're offset somewhat by the BC numbers.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Boy, those Prairie numbers make me hopefull.

The New Dems really need to get the vote out tommorow though, or it simply just doesn't mean a thing.

asterix

I agree that those Prairie numbers definitely bode well for a breakthrough or two, but probably not well enough to really paint Saskatchewan or Manitoba orange. If that holds, we probably get back Winnipeg North, Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar and maybe Palliser -- but I'm not prepared to predict anything else.

That said, I'm wondering about something: I know that St. Boniface isn't really on anybody's radar, and that we've never actually done better than third there before. But in an election where a crazy orange wave started in Quebec, of all places, could that potentially have enough of a psychological effect on the Franco-Manitoban community in St. Boniface to at least give us an uptick that would pave the way for more serious future inroads?

Anonymouse

If you take the numbers of those "absolutely certain" to vote, the CPC-NDP gap narrows to 2.2%. Furthermore, the NDP is amazingly STILL the second choice of more Canadians than any other party (23.2%), including the second choice of 22.9% of CPCers. This suggests to me that the momentum is still not spent and I am CERTAIN the NDP is going to bring a good ground game in Western Canada. What is going to happen Monday night? Which pollster will be right?

Northern-54

The following is now the exact poll results.  I understand that more polling is going on and there will be an updated version for this evening. 

Atlantic:

NDP 41.3%

Liberal 28.3%

Conservative 24.4%

Green 4.2%

 

Quebec

NDP 39.9%

BLOC 22.8%

Liberal 15.2%

Conservative 14.6%

 

Ontario

Conservative 39.8%

Liberal 26.7%

NDP 26.2%

Green 6.3%

 

Prairies

Conservative 46.5%

NDP 30.1%

Liberals 13.5%

Green 7.6%

 

Alberta

Conservative 59.1%

NDP 18.4%

Liberal 13.7%

Green 7.4%

 

British Colubia

NDP 36.5%

Conservative 36.3%

Liberal 15.3%

Green 9.3%

 

 

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@asterix:

Well, I don't know. I just don't know that part of Winnipeg at all. It's never voted New Dem Federally, so I have never bothered to learn about its dynamic. Anyone else have any thoughts? I really don't know what to say.

As a matter of fact, it never even occured to me a New Dem could ever be considered a serious candidate in that riding.

northman_08

EKos has the full poll on their website. 

northman_08

alt can 41 NDP; 21 con

man sask 46 con 31 ndp

 

ReeferMadness

Ordinarily, I hate the idea of strategic voting but here's a deliciously subversive idea.  If you live in a safe riding, or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive, you can swap your vote.  votepair.ca

Your party still gets a vote and you help prevent the Cons from doing their worst.  Obviously, this is an honor system.

Let's prevent a Harper majority at any cost!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Don't do this!

JeffWells

ReeferMadness wrote:
or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive

 

How is anyone supposed to make those assumptions now?

 

This kind of faux-informed voting leads to unintended consequences.

finois finois's picture

Just came from jack rally in Kingston Ontario

Hall packed equal number of supporters outside.

Don't forget we are the most motivated team now.

Traffic was stopped..Jack gave his speech inside the building and the the EVER Ready bunny JACK

went outside and gave another speech to the crowd outside.

if you had seen the beeming faces in the totally mixed crowd it would bring tears to your eyes..

We all want this bad and we the citizens will be victorious.

KEEP THE FAITH

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Finois:

That is wonderful!

Thanks for sharing that!

 

Ward

Time to factor in the  weather forecast across the country.

Paulitical Junkie

Seriously Ontario, WTF?

Anonymouse

strategic voting is a game for hucksters and confidence (wo)men. bring in PR.

finois finois's picture

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Are there any old time CCFer's reading these threads today? What Jack did kind of reminds me of what is like in the old days when Woodsworth and Douglas lead us through so many good fights. My wife pointed out to me she has been thinking this all week.

I still say we need to work our guts out, but this is at least an exciting time to be active. I hope, I hope, I hope. I am scrutineering tommorow. Keep working folks, give it you all!

thorin_bane

The NDP needs to have the most number of votes to so no matter what the outcome of seats we can show the need for proportional representation. That is the game changer we need to happen regardless of the election outcome.

Anonymouse

Rain in much of the country tomorrow. Campaigns better be prepared. Do what it takes. Get those voters to the polls.

Sean in Ottawa

ReeferMadness wrote:

Ordinarily, I hate the idea of strategic voting but here's a deliciously subversive idea.  If you live in a safe riding, or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive, you can swap your vote.  votepair.ca

Your party still gets a vote and you help prevent the Cons from doing their worst.  Obviously, this is an honor system.

Let's prevent a Harper majority at any cost!

Check out this seat: http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/random-burin-st-georges

There the site urges you to vote for the third place Liberal (see poll THEY SHOW for April 30). The second place NDP is very close to beating the Conservative.

This site is a joke -- up to you to decide if it is:

1) out of date, unreliable and incompetent or

2) Liberal propaganda that would rather let the Cons win than the NDP in any riding where it looked the Liberals might have even an outside chance. Just a Liberal site pretending to be about democracy.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Sean:

Don't worry about it.

melovesproles

I live in the West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country riding where the NDP finished way behind the Liberals and Conservatives and back with the Greens.  I looked at vote-pairing and I was thinking seriously about strategically voting for the Libs.  I HATE having a Convervative MP, but the attacks on Layton and the NDP have been so disgusting, I want to make sure Im counted as supporting them.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Has anyone an explanation why "The Council of Canadians", hasn't endorsed Jack and the party. They have run too stories on the front page that talk about getting Harper. Today, they point to 308.com, and say the polls say the Libs will be second.

Why do we even entertain giving them a venue to spout Lib propaganda?

janfromthebruce

 

 

RM, I know that cons are actually creating FB accts and vote swapping with gullible posters on there - this is a really bad idea and so I hope you remove this link.

ReeferMadness wrote:

Ordinarily, I hate the idea of strategic voting but here's a deliciously subversive idea.  If you live in a safe riding, or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive, you can swap your vote.  votepair.ca

Your party still gets a vote and you help prevent the Cons from doing their worst.  Obviously, this is an honor system.

Let's prevent a Harper majority at any cost!

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

knownothing knownothing's picture

Anyone advocating strategic voting is either a Liberal propogandist or unknowingly destroying the best chance the left has had in this country's history. Harper already had his Majority for 5 years because the Liberlas supported him on almost everything, Wars, Corporate Tax Cuts, Senate corruption, etc.

How will electing Liberals stop the war in Afghanistan?

How will electing liberals help us get rid of the Senate!?

Vote NDP even if your candidate is going to lose. This is just the beginning. Even if we just win Opposition we need to position ourselves against the liberals for next election!

Sean in Ottawa

Sounds like you know something

asterix

I can understand the logic of strategic voting in some cases; there are some seats in this country where I'd be perfectly willing to vote Liberal in a tight Liberal-Tory race (Vaughan being my textbook example). But in the vast majority of seats I'm a firm believer in "vote for what you actually want whether your candidate is likely to win or not".

Policywonk

Those numbers in Atlantic Canada are incredible. We should do very well in Nova Scotia at least, and maybe even a totally unexpected win in Charlottetown or Saint John. And those BC numbers are great too.

Volrath50

Policywonk wrote:

Those numbers in Atlantic Canada are incredible. We should do very well in Nova Scotia at least, and maybe even a totally unexpected win in Charlottetown or Saint John. And those BC numbers are great too.

The Atlantic is a real wildcard. Margins of error are so huge there, the result could be pretty much anything. That will be interesting to see the results of that, uh, when the polls close in Ontario. And not on Twitter.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Has anyone an explanation why "The Council of Canadians", hasn't endorsed Jack and the party. They have run too stories on the front page that talk about getting Harper. Today, they point to 308.com, and say the polls say the Libs will be second.

Why do we even entertain giving them a venue to spout Lib propaganda?

Fortunately, nobody listens to the Council of Canadians, or gives a damn what they think.

 

Anonymouse

Volrath50 wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

Those numbers in Atlantic Canada are incredible. We should do very well in Nova Scotia at least, and maybe even a totally unexpected win in Charlottetown or Saint John. And those BC numbers are great too.

The Atlantic is a real wildcard. Margins of error are so huge there, the result could be pretty much anything. That will be interesting to see the results of that, uh, when the polls close in Ontario. And not on Twitter.

True. For what it's worth, the MOE is 6% in the Atlantic sample for the Ekos poll. So unless it is an off-poll (the infamous 1/20), the NDP is still in first place. The last week of polls in Atlantic Canada has been consistent in showing an NDP rise but most of them suggest a 3-way tie stuck in the 30s. All of this is bad news for the Conservatives as their vote in NFLD is expected to (ineffectually) pick up now that Danny Williams is gone.

ETA: I expect most of the NDP support will be concentrated in NS too, but we could be looking at some 1997 style shockers in NB and Charlottetown, in addition to a (hopefully) NDP win in St. John's South-Mount Pearl in NFLD.

Stockholm

There are a couple of other "sleepers" for the NDP in Atlantic Canada like Labrador and Saint John, NB

ReeferMadness

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Don't do this!

Don't listen to him!

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

ReeferMadness wrote:

Ordinarily, I hate the idea of strategic voting but here's a deliciously subversive idea.  If you live in a safe riding, or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive, you can swap your vote.  votepair.ca

Your party still gets a vote and you help prevent the Cons from doing their worst.  Obviously, this is an honor system.

Let's prevent a Harper majority at any cost!

Check out this seat: http://www.projectdemocracy.ca/random-burin-st-georges

There the site urges you to vote for the third place Liberal (see poll THEY SHOW for April 30). The second place NDP is very close to beating the Conservative.

This site is a joke -- up to you to decide if it is:

1) out of date, unreliable and incompetent or

2) Liberal propaganda that would rather let the Cons win than the NDP in any riding where it looked the Liberals might have even an outside chance. Just a Liberal site pretending to be about democracy.

That's not an actual poll. It's a projection of what national polls might show (of which the Atlantic provinces are a tiny subsample). Those numbers also don't account for incumbancy

ReeferMadness

JeffWells wrote:

ReeferMadness wrote:
or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive

How is anyone supposed to make those assumptions now?

This kind of faux-informed voting leads to unintended consequences.

Jeff, I agree that upsets can happen and the polls are all over the map.  However, I think that if you look at this and find that your candidate is running 20 points behind, chances of an upset are pretty slim.  If you look at the ridings, I think you'll see that there are lots of places where this would make good sense.  For example, Green & Liberal supporters could put the NDP over the top in Vancouver Island North while NDP and Liberal supporters could put May in the house in Saanich-GI.

 

ReeferMadness

Anonymouse wrote:

strategic voting is a game for hucksters and confidence (wo)men. bring in PR.

I completely agree.  Now, do you think PR will be in place tomorrow?  No?  Then be smart.  There is a very real chance that after tomorrow Harper will have total power.  And having an NDP official opposition will be cold comfort.

ReeferMadness

finois wrote:

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

You're dreaming in technicolor.  The polls are bouncing like basketballs and nobody knows what's going to happen after tomorrow.  But there are plenty of ridings where some parties (even the NDP) simply aren't going to be competitive.  Stop the NDP giddiness and be smart.

northman_08

Harris has a new poll national -35-30-20

NDP 42 quebec

con 41 ont , ndp 26, lip 24

knownothing knownothing's picture

What if you vote Liberal in some of the ridings and then find out the NDP lost by a few votes to the Tory because the Liberal base has shifted to the NDP?

ReeferMadness

janfromthebruce wrote:

 

 

RM, I know that cons are actually creating FB accts and vote swapping with gullible posters on there - this is a really bad idea and so I hope you remove this link.

ReeferMadness wrote:

Ordinarily, I hate the idea of strategic voting but here's a deliciously subversive idea.  If you live in a safe riding, or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive, you can swap your vote.  votepair.ca

Your party still gets a vote and you help prevent the Cons from doing their worst.  Obviously, this is an honor system.

Let's prevent a Harper majority at any cost!

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

I don't doubt for a minute that there will be people who will take advantage of this.  But if you think it through and be smart about wht you do, it won't matter.  In my case, for example, my preferred party (Green) has no chance.  So, I might be willing to trade my vote.  Now, I wouldn't agree to vote Conservative, no matter what.  And I wouldn't trade if the result was likely to help a Conservative. However, I could agree to vote for Denise Savoie in my riding (Victoria) in exchange for an NDP supporter in Saanich - GI voting for Elizabeth May.  So, what's the down side if it turns out that the other party is messing with me or decides not to vote at all?  Not much.

Look.  If you think that your preferred candidate has a fighting chance, this isn't for you.  Vote for your candidate.  However, if you are like millions of us who think we have a better chance of having Martians impose PR than have our votes count for something, it might be worth exploring. 

Unlike traditional strategic voting, widespread vote trading could produce results that are more proportional than FPTP.  And widespread vote trading would probably be reported in the media as a sign that there is a lack of confidence in our voting system.

 

 

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Boy I don't trust Nanos at all.

Sineed

Has anybody posted this one yet?  It was on the Hill Times as of 10:46 this morning, via my facebook friend Cheri DiNovo:

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/dailyupdate/view/ndp_tories_in_virtual_dead_h...

Quote:

NDP, Tories in virtual dead heat, either party could form minority government, says Forum Research poll

It's so tight, Cheri says there needs to be less movement for the NDP to win a minority than for the Cons to get their majority.

asterix

Quote:
Cheri says there needs to be less movement for the NDP to win a minority than for the Cons to get their majority.

Nah, actually I said that in the responses, mentioning the buzz about a different poll Smile

Policywonk

ReeferMadness wrote:

finois wrote:

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

You're dreaming in technicolor.  The polls are bouncing like basketballs and nobody knows what's going to happen after tomorrow.  But there are plenty of ridings where some parties (even the NDP) simply aren't going to be competitive.  Stop the NDP giddiness and be smart.

The trouble is that in this situation, there are very few ridings where it's clear who is competitive and who isn't. Granted there are some ridings where some parties aren't going to be competitive, but it's not at all clear that people agree where they are, except mainly for the ones where no-one except the Conservatives are competitive. As some ridings in Quebec will show, a 20 point lead from the last election doesn't necessarily mean much when one party is surging. You can allow us some giddiness, as there has never been a federal election like this one.

Sineed

asterix wrote:

Quote:
Cheri says there needs to be less movement for the NDP to win a minority than for the Cons to get their majority.

Nah, actually I said that in the responses, mentioning the buzz about a different poll Smile

Just went back and looked, and I stand corrected, fellow FB friend of Cheri *waves*

I like your "Orange Crush" profile pic.

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

Get Iggy to commit to implementing the Royal Commission Recommendation for a MMP system and I will consider it. Until then it's more BS.

Policywonk

ReeferMadness wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

 

 

RM, I know that cons are actually creating FB accts and vote swapping with gullible posters on there - this is a really bad idea and so I hope you remove this link.

ReeferMadness wrote:

Ordinarily, I hate the idea of strategic voting but here's a deliciously subversive idea.  If you live in a safe riding, or a swing riding where your preferred party isn't competitive, you can swap your vote.  votepair.ca

Your party still gets a vote and you help prevent the Cons from doing their worst.  Obviously, this is an honor system.

Let's prevent a Harper majority at any cost!

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

I don't doubt for a minute that there will be people who will take advantage of this.  But if you think it through and be smart about wht you do, it won't matter.  In my case, for example, my preferred party (Green) has no chance.  So, I might be willing to trade my vote.  Now, I wouldn't agree to vote Conservative, no matter what.  And I wouldn't trade if the result was likely to help a Conservative. However, I could agree to vote for Denise Savoie in my riding (Victoria) in exchange for an NDP supporter in Saanich - GI voting for Elizabeth May.  So, what's the down side if it turns out that the other party is messing with me or decides not to vote at all?  Not much.

Look.  If you think that your preferred candidate has a fighting chance, this isn't for you.  Vote for your candidate.  However, if you are like millions of us who think we have a better chance of having Martians impose PR than have our votes count for something, it might be worth exploring. 

Unlike traditional strategic voting, widespread vote trading could produce results that are more proportional than FPTP.  And widespread vote trading would probably be reported in the media as a sign that there is a lack of confidence in our voting system.

 

 

 

Like with strategic voting, you would still have to get it right. And picking the non-competitive ridings isn't an exact science.

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

Besides, I still remember David Emerson.

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