Federal polling - May 1, 2011

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asterix

Reefer, those numbers on the Democratic Space predictions chart are projected guesses as to where the vote is going to land, based on assumptions about which pockets of any given riding are likely to shift one way or the other from how they voted in 2008. They are not hard polling data, and some of their guesses are going to be shown wrong tomorrow night.

Everybody has to make their own decision about how to vote tomorrow, based on their own criteria -- but saying somebody has to vote Liberal, even if they prefer the NDP, because 308 or DS is guessing that the Liberal is ahead in their riding, really isn't the most useful or reliable gauge to use.

And anyway, there's another reason that strategic voting doesn't generally work the way it's intended to: you're relying on about 80,000 other voters in your riding to make the same judgement call as you regarding which party is the better strategic choice, and you're relying on them all using the same factors and the same data to come to their conclusion.

Remember when Sid Ryan ran in Oshawa in an election some years back (I can't remember if it was provincial or federal), but lost narrowly to a Tory? Well, they polled that race afterward: the number of people who wanted to vote for Sid Ryan, but pulled back at the last minute to vote Liberal so that the Tories wouldn't get in, was larger than the margin of Ryan's loss -- meaning that if those people had voted their first choice instead of trying to be "strategic", Ryan would have won, but instead they ended up with exactly the party they were trying to block "strategically".

Ryan was actually the correct strategic choice in their riding, but enough voters "nationalized" their strategy instead and switched to the party that was more likely to win overall instead of the one that was more likely to win the race they were actually voting in.

Which is why my "strategy" has always been to vote for what I actually want, not for what somebody else tells me is the "correct" choice. I may or may not actually get it, but I definitely won't get it if I don't. If you feel that casting a "strategic" vote for your second or third choice of party is a better use of your franchise, then by all means, go right ahead and do that -- but by god, you've got to base that decision on what you're actually seeing and hearing on the ground in your own riding, not on what some amateur statistics blogger three provinces away thinks might happen.

JeffWells

Steve_Shutt wrote:
Besides, I still remember David Emerson.

 

Needs saying twice before the thread's locked.

Northern-54

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Boy I don't trust Nanos at all.

 

I understand your feelings about Nanos.  But, I do trust them when it comes to their final prediction.  That one is important for the company's long term credibility.

bekayne

northman_08 wrote:

Harris has a new poll national -35-30-20

NDP 42 quebec

con 41 ont , ndp 26, lip 24

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2011/05/01/hd-2011-05-01-en1163.pdf

Policywonk

bekayne wrote:

northman_08 wrote:

Harris has a new poll national -35-30-20

NDP 42 quebec

con 41 ont , ndp 26, lip 24

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2011/05/01/hd-2011-05-01-en1163.pdf

Useless. Things are changing too much for one and two week samples, particularly the regionals.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Man, I hate that Alan Gregg. He says Canadians like Layton as NDP laeder, but nothing else, the NDP is going to give the Cons a majority, and Jack's momentum is finished.

Could someone please tell these people to shut the hell up. What a bunch of pompous, self-satisfied, jerks! I hate that At Issues panel too. The CBC can go to hell! Man this is offensive. I am so sick of these guys!

And one more thing, this is coming from the same guy who said the polls are screwed up. What a croc!

Northern-54

The Harris poll was taken over the last week!  It is old news.  I am worried about tomorrow, not 4-7 days ago!  Only the last half of his poll is relevant.

ghoris

Arthur - what else do you expect from a former Tory pollster? Gregg helped run campaigns for Clark and Mulroney and along with John Tory was the strategic "brains" behind Kim Campbell's flameout (including, most notoriously, the infamous "face" ads).  Of course he's going to spin everything as good news for the Tories.

And even if NDP momentum has now peaked, so what - you want your peak to coincide with E-Day - not a week before and not a week after (the infamous "if only we had another week" lament).

It's telling to me that Coyne and Hebert, who have previously been very dismissive of the NDP, have been forced to acknowledge that the NDP is now a major player and will likely displace the Liberals as the second-place party.  Hebert has, if anything, been quick to counter naysayers trying to explain away the NDP's Quebec surge and she has really done a number on Duceppe and the Bloc in her recent columns.

Life, the unive...

As I said before, not one single pundit in Canada, even while the NDP was begining to surge predicted anything close to what has happened thus far in this election.  If any of them had any integrity they would all resign as a group tonight.  

To review - their prediction.   No one wanted this election.  The results would be pretty much the same as the House was when the writ was dropped.  The NDP was afraid of the election and they were going to lose a bunch of seats.

They have been proven to know about as much as my grand-daughters hamster. 

By the way I hate to admit it, but Northreport did call this.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Does anyone think that Nanos is going to have differnet poll results tonight on the national then is currently on their website? You know, something like the NDP is going to give Harper a majority>

I have to admint, if I was a nail bitter, I would't have anything. This garbage from these guys is driving me crazy.

I think personally we are going to end up the Official Opposition; I am certain of that. But I hate this spin game these guys are trying to play on the public. They'll do anything to maintain the status quo. I hate these guys!

bekayne

Ontario:

Harris-Decima (Apr 28-May 1): Con 41, NDP 26, Lib 24 

Ekos (Apr 28-30): Con 39.8, Lib 26.7, NDP 26.2

Forum (Apr 30): Con 36, NDP 31, Lib 25

Nanos (Apr 28-30): Con 36.2, Lib 31.1, NDP 27.4

Angus Reid (Apr 28-29): Con 41, NDP 27, Lib 26

Abacus (Apr 28-29): Con 41, NDP 29, Lib 25

COMPAS (Apr 28-29): Con 48, Lib 25, NDP 22

Ipsos (Apr 26-28): Con 40, NDP 34, Lib 21

Leger (Apr 25-28): Con 38, NDP 30, Lib 27

bekayne

Northern-54 wrote:

The Harris poll was taken over the last week!  It is old news.  I am worried about tomorrow, not 4-7 days ago!  Only the last half of his poll is relevant.

The one week sample was taken April 28 to May 1

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Anyone think Nanos is going to say something crazy tonight?

Northern-54

bekayne wrote:

Northern-54 wrote:

The Harris poll was taken over the last week!  It is old news.  I am worried about tomorrow, not 4-7 days ago!  Only the last half of his poll is relevant.

The one week sample was taken April 28 to May 1

Not as bad then.  I still am looking to the three pollsters tonight.  Forum, Nanos and Ekos for the most recent polling.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well, Nanos, anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

gyor

The ndp is going to end up with a minority unless Harper gets a majority which I find doubtful. Either it will be the long way or the short way. Short way is winning the most seats out right, long way is coalition with the liberals. Liberals will not pick Harper over Jack because a) Harper can barely get along with his own party never mind anyone else b) Rae or some other lefty will lead the libs so any promise Iggy made is ignorable.

Northern-54

I don't expect anything crazy from Nanos.  Earlier in the election, a bad night for the NDP is no big deal because it isn't remembered next election.  But, getting the final result significantly different than reality causes a loss of credibility, something key to a pollster's business.  I think a good part of the reason that Nanos is doing the extra polling today is to lop of the "outlier" night from three night's past.  As well, they have competition out there, Ekos and Forum are also publishing polls tonight.

I sometimes think that the NDP should cultivate their own pollster.  Then, we wouldn't have to depend on the Liberal pollster (Ekos) to give us results to balance the many Conservative polling companies.

bekayne

BC

Harris-Decima (Apr 20-May 1): Con 41, NDP 35, Lib 14, Green 10 

Ekos (Apr 28-30): NDP 36.5, Con 36.3, Lib 15.3, Green 9.3

Forum (Apr 30): Con 39, NDP 37, Lib 15

Nanos (Apr 28-30): Con 41.2, NDP 34.9, Lib 17.9, Green 5.7

Angus Reid (Apr 28-29): Con 42, NDP 39, Lib 12, Green 7

Abacus (Apr 28-29): Con 40, NDP 40, Green 11, Lib 10

COMPAS (Apr 28-29): Con 48, NDP 29, Lib 15, Green 8

Ipsos (Apr 26-28): Con 42, NDP 29, Lib 26, Green 3

Leger (Apr 25-28): Con 42, NDP 32, Lib 16, Green 9

Northern-54

I heard on television that Harper is going to be (was?) in Abbotsford tonight.  That is due to the volatility of the situation in BC, the NDP coming up to a tie (in some of the polls Bekayne listed) with the Conservatives.  Given Conservative pluralities around Kelowna, this could cost the Conservatives as many as 10 seats.

ReeferMadness

Policywonk wrote:

ReeferMadness wrote:

finois wrote:

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

You're dreaming in technicolor.  The polls are bouncing like basketballs and nobody knows what's going to happen after tomorrow.  But there are plenty of ridings where some parties (even the NDP) simply aren't going to be competitive.  Stop the NDP giddiness and be smart.

The trouble is that in this situation, there are very few ridings where it's clear who is competitive and who isn't. Granted there are some ridings where some parties aren't going to be competitive, but it's not at all clear that people agree where they are, except mainly for the ones where no-one except the Conservatives are competitive. As some ridings in Quebec will show, a 20 point lead from the last election doesn't necessarily mean much when one party is surging. You can allow us some giddiness, as there has never been a federal election like this one.

Are you kidding me??  It would be easy to identify 100 - 150 ridings where the NDP has very little chance.  Not to mention 307 ridings where the Greens have very little chance. As I said before, if you think your preferred candidate has a hope, vote for her or him.  If not, this might be an idea worth considering.

Also, the 20 point lead is not based on the last election, it's based on current projections.  Their methodology is here.  They readily admit that it isn't perfect; however, it's unlikely that it will be out by 15 or 20 points.  The predictions seem to be more or less in line with what everyone else is predicting.  Have all the giddiness you want - just don't hand Harper a majority out of pig-headed ness.

To prove my point, I'll pick several dozen ridings that the NDP will not win tomorrow.   I'm basing my picks solely on Democratic Space projections.  I'm picking ridings where the NDP is running third or is off the lead by 20 points or more (or both).  Let's check back tomorrow and see how many of these seats have NDP MP's

 

Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Ottawa-Orleans

Ottawa South

Ottawa West-Nepean

Nepean-Carleton

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Lanark-Frontenac-L & A

Leeds-Grenville

Prince Edward-Hastings

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Stormont-Dundas-S Glengarry

Barrie

Durham

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Peterborough

Northumberland-Quinte West

Simcoe North

York-Simcoe

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Dufferin-Caledon

Wellington-Halton Hills

Oxford

London West

Burlington

Haldimand-Norfolk

Niagara Falls

Niagara West-Glanbrook

St. Catharines

Brampton-Springdale

Ajax-Pickering

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton West

Halton

Markham-Unionville

Mississauga-Brampton South

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Mississauga-Erindale

Mississauga South

Mississauga-Streetsville

Newmarket-Aurora

Oak Ridges-Markham

Oakville

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

Thornhill

Vaughan

Whitby-Oshawa

Etobicoke Centre

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Etobicoke North

St. Paul's

Scarborough-Agincourt

Scarborough Centre

Scarborough-Guildwood

Scarborough-Rouge River

Toronto Centre

Willowdale

York Centre

York West

 

bekayne

Quebec:

Harris-Decima (Apr 28-May 1): NDP 42, BQ 26, Lib 14, Con 12 

Ekos (Apr 28-30): NDP 39.9, BQ 22.8, Lib 15.2, Con 14.6

Forum (Apr 30): NDP 44, BQ 21, Con 16, Lib 13

Nanos (Apr 28-30): NDP 37.4, BQ 23.9, Lib 18.1, Con 16.7

Angus Reid (Apr 28-29): NDP 45, BQ 26, Lib 16, Con 13

Abacus (Apr 28-29): NDP 40, BQ 27, Lib 14, Con 13

COMPAS (Apr 28-29): NDP 38, BQ 32, Con 15, Lib 14

Ipsos (Apr 26-28): NDP 42, BQ 26, Con 15, Lib 13

Leger (Apr 25-28): NDP 40, BQ 27, Lib 15, Con 15

Incorrect

Breaking News! A Liberal party spokesman has predicted a Liberal majority government with Michael Ignatieff as Prime Minister. 

"Victory means victory"

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@incorrect:

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Northern-54 wrote:

I heard on television that Harper is going to be (was?) in Abbotsford tonight.  That is due to the volatility of the situation in BC, the NDP coming up to a tie (in some of the polls Bekayne listed) with the Conservatives.  Given Conservative pluralities around Kelowna, this could cost the Conservatives as many as 10 seats.

[/quote

That would be weird for him to go to Abbotsford.  Just checked Wikipedia for the riding and the Tories won their last time by FIFTY-SIX percentage points.  If he is or was there, it must because because it's close to Surrey North or some other marginals.

Life, the unive...

That was a good list of who had no chance in 2008. 

Doesn't tell us much about THIS election though. 

I am old enough to have seen this kind of sea-change a few times.  NO ONE and I mean NO ONE can predict what is going to happen tomorrow.  Sure shots will go nowhere and no chancers will find themselves checking out the rental listings in Ottawa Tuesday trying to figure out what to do now that they are an MP-elect.  

This kind of volitility is unpredicatble.  

I'll take one from your list - Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound.  Who's the strategic vote there?  The Greens - probably not as they ended up not being a very strong campaign.  The Liberals- Kim Love is a great candidate, but the Liberals are going nowhere. The NDP- seemed like a no-hope at the begining, but they have made great strides.  In short you RM and everyone else could not possibly give me the right answer for this campaign.  Strategic voting, or vote swapping or whatever you want to call it is useless in the context of being on the eve of what will likely be a historic election tomorrow.  Give it up you really don't know what you are talking about.  When people vote change on a massive scale nothing is predictable.

HornAfrique

ReeferMadness wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

ReeferMadness wrote:

finois wrote:

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

You're dreaming in technicolor.  The polls are bouncing like basketballs and nobody knows what's going to happen after tomorrow.  But there are plenty of ridings where some parties (even the NDP) simply aren't going to be competitive.  Stop the NDP giddiness and be smart.

The trouble is that in this situation, there are very few ridings where it's clear who is competitive and who isn't. Granted there are some ridings where some parties aren't going to be competitive, but it's not at all clear that people agree where they are, except mainly for the ones where no-one except the Conservatives are competitive. As some ridings in Quebec will show, a 20 point lead from the last election doesn't necessarily mean much when one party is surging. You can allow us some giddiness, as there has never been a federal election like this one.

Are you kidding me??  It would be easy to identify 100 - 150 ridings where the NDP has very little chance.  Not to mention 307 ridings where the Greens have very little chance. As I said before, if you think your preferred candidate has a hope, vote for her or him.  If not, this might be an idea worth considering.

Also, the 20 point lead is not based on the last election, it's based on current projections.  Their methodology is here.  They readily admit that it isn't perfect; however, it's unlikely that it will be out by 15 or 20 points.  The predictions seem to be more or less in line with what everyone else is predicting.  Have all the giddiness you want - just don't hand Harper a majority out of pig-headed ness.

To prove my point, I'll pick several dozen ridings that the NDP will not win tomorrow.   I'm basing my picks solely on Democratic Space projections.  I'm picking ridings where the NDP is running third or is off the lead by 20 points or more (or both).  Let's check back tomorrow and see how many of these seats have NDP MP's

 

Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Ottawa-Orleans

Ottawa South

Ottawa West-Nepean

Nepean-Carleton

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Lanark-Frontenac-L & A

Leeds-Grenville

Prince Edward-Hastings

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Stormont-Dundas-S Glengarry

Barrie

Durham

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Peterborough

Northumberland-Quinte West

Simcoe North

York-Simcoe

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Dufferin-Caledon

Wellington-Halton Hills

Oxford

London West

Burlington

Haldimand-Norfolk

Niagara Falls

Niagara West-Glanbrook

St. Catharines

Brampton-Springdale

Ajax-Pickering

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton West

Halton

Markham-Unionville

Mississauga-Brampton South

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Mississauga-Erindale

Mississauga South

Mississauga-Streetsville

Newmarket-Aurora

Oak Ridges-Markham

Oakville

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

Thornhill

Vaughan

Whitby-Oshawa

Etobicoke Centre

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Etobicoke North

St. Paul's

Scarborough-Agincourt

Scarborough Centre

Scarborough-Guildwood

Scarborough-Rouge River

Toronto Centre

Willowdale

York Centre

York West

 

 

This is something that I'm grappling with going to vote tommorrow. I live in one of these ridings, Nepean-Carleton, where it seems the NDP is running a distant third. I'm much more partial to the NDP and have generally voted NDP in previous elections both at the federal and provincial level. However I really cannot stand my local Conservative MP( Pierre Poillievere), and it seems the only challenge towards him is presented from the Liberals. I'd rather not vote Liberal and I'm generally not a fan of the party, however I admittedly would like to see Pierre fall more. That's unlikely to happen so I might just vote with my preference and vote NDP. However this is a dilemma thats facing a lot of progressive voters in ridings like mine.

HornAfrique

ReeferMadness wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

ReeferMadness wrote:

finois wrote:

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

You're dreaming in technicolor.  The polls are bouncing like basketballs and nobody knows what's going to happen after tomorrow.  But there are plenty of ridings where some parties (even the NDP) simply aren't going to be competitive.  Stop the NDP giddiness and be smart.

The trouble is that in this situation, there are very few ridings where it's clear who is competitive and who isn't. Granted there are some ridings where some parties aren't going to be competitive, but it's not at all clear that people agree where they are, except mainly for the ones where no-one except the Conservatives are competitive. As some ridings in Quebec will show, a 20 point lead from the last election doesn't necessarily mean much when one party is surging. You can allow us some giddiness, as there has never been a federal election like this one.

Are you kidding me??  It would be easy to identify 100 - 150 ridings where the NDP has very little chance.  Not to mention 307 ridings where the Greens have very little chance. As I said before, if you think your preferred candidate has a hope, vote for her or him.  If not, this might be an idea worth considering.

Also, the 20 point lead is not based on the last election, it's based on current projections.  Their methodology is here.  They readily admit that it isn't perfect; however, it's unlikely that it will be out by 15 or 20 points.  The predictions seem to be more or less in line with what everyone else is predicting.  Have all the giddiness you want - just don't hand Harper a majority out of pig-headed ness.

To prove my point, I'll pick several dozen ridings that the NDP will not win tomorrow.   I'm basing my picks solely on Democratic Space projections.  I'm picking ridings where the NDP is running third or is off the lead by 20 points or more (or both).  Let's check back tomorrow and see how many of these seats have NDP MP's

 

Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Ottawa-Orleans

Ottawa South

Ottawa West-Nepean

Nepean-Carleton

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Lanark-Frontenac-L & A

Leeds-Grenville

Prince Edward-Hastings

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Stormont-Dundas-S Glengarry

Barrie

Durham

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Peterborough

Northumberland-Quinte West

Simcoe North

York-Simcoe

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Dufferin-Caledon

Wellington-Halton Hills

Oxford

London West

Burlington

Haldimand-Norfolk

Niagara Falls

Niagara West-Glanbrook

St. Catharines

Brampton-Springdale

Ajax-Pickering

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton West

Halton

Markham-Unionville

Mississauga-Brampton South

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Mississauga-Erindale

Mississauga South

Mississauga-Streetsville

Newmarket-Aurora

Oak Ridges-Markham

Oakville

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

Thornhill

Vaughan

Whitby-Oshawa

Etobicoke Centre

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Etobicoke North

St. Paul's

Scarborough-Agincourt

Scarborough Centre

Scarborough-Guildwood

Scarborough-Rouge River

Toronto Centre

Willowdale

York Centre

York West

 

 

This is something that I'm grappling with going to vote tommorrow. I live in one of these ridings, Nepean-Carleton, where it seems the NDP is running a distant third. I'm much more partial to the NDP and have generally voted NDP in previous elections both at the federal and provincial level. However I really cannot stand my local Conservative MP( Pierre Poillievere), and it seems the only challenge towards him is presented from the Liberals. I'd rather not vote Liberal and I'm generally not a fan of the party, however I admittedly would like to see Pierre fall more. That's unlikely to happen so I might just vote with my preference and vote NDP. However this is a dilemma thats facing a lot of progressive voters in ridings like mine.

HornAfrique

ReeferMadness wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

ReeferMadness wrote:

finois wrote:

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

You're dreaming in technicolor.  The polls are bouncing like basketballs and nobody knows what's going to happen after tomorrow.  But there are plenty of ridings where some parties (even the NDP) simply aren't going to be competitive.  Stop the NDP giddiness and be smart.

The trouble is that in this situation, there are very few ridings where it's clear who is competitive and who isn't. Granted there are some ridings where some parties aren't going to be competitive, but it's not at all clear that people agree where they are, except mainly for the ones where no-one except the Conservatives are competitive. As some ridings in Quebec will show, a 20 point lead from the last election doesn't necessarily mean much when one party is surging. You can allow us some giddiness, as there has never been a federal election like this one.

Are you kidding me??  It would be easy to identify 100 - 150 ridings where the NDP has very little chance.  Not to mention 307 ridings where the Greens have very little chance. As I said before, if you think your preferred candidate has a hope, vote for her or him.  If not, this might be an idea worth considering.

Also, the 20 point lead is not based on the last election, it's based on current projections.  Their methodology is here.  They readily admit that it isn't perfect; however, it's unlikely that it will be out by 15 or 20 points.  The predictions seem to be more or less in line with what everyone else is predicting.  Have all the giddiness you want - just don't hand Harper a majority out of pig-headed ness.

To prove my point, I'll pick several dozen ridings that the NDP will not win tomorrow.   I'm basing my picks solely on Democratic Space projections.  I'm picking ridings where the NDP is running third or is off the lead by 20 points or more (or both).  Let's check back tomorrow and see how many of these seats have NDP MP's

 

Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Ottawa-Orleans

Ottawa South

Ottawa West-Nepean

Nepean-Carleton

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Lanark-Frontenac-L & A

Leeds-Grenville

Prince Edward-Hastings

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Stormont-Dundas-S Glengarry

Barrie

Durham

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Peterborough

Northumberland-Quinte West

Simcoe North

York-Simcoe

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Dufferin-Caledon

Wellington-Halton Hills

Oxford

London West

Burlington

Haldimand-Norfolk

Niagara Falls

Niagara West-Glanbrook

St. Catharines

Brampton-Springdale

Ajax-Pickering

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton West

Halton

Markham-Unionville

Mississauga-Brampton South

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Mississauga-Erindale

Mississauga South

Mississauga-Streetsville

Newmarket-Aurora

Oak Ridges-Markham

Oakville

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

Thornhill

Vaughan

Whitby-Oshawa

Etobicoke Centre

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Etobicoke North

St. Paul's

Scarborough-Agincourt

Scarborough Centre

Scarborough-Guildwood

Scarborough-Rouge River

Toronto Centre

Willowdale

York Centre

York West

 

 

This is something that I'm grappling with going to vote tommorrow. I live in one of these ridings, Nepean-Carleton, where it seems the NDP is running a distant third. I'm much more partial to the NDP and have generally voted NDP in previous elections both at the federal and provincial level. However I really cannot stand my local Conservative MP( Pierre Poillievere), and it seems the only challenge towards him is presented from the Liberals. I'd rather not vote Liberal and I'm generally not a fan of the party, however I admittedly would like to see Pierre fall more. That's unlikely to happen so I might just vote with my preference and vote NDP. However this is a dilemma thats facing a lot of progressive voters in ridings like mine.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@HornAfrique

Don't vote Lib. You send the wrong message if the Lib does well, or wins. The message to send is the NDP is rising in all polls all across Canada. Doing otherwise undermines our message that we are to be taken seriously. It hurts the cause very badly.

Seriously, this is the biggest thing that is wrong about stategic voting. Stop being afraid. You are simply allowing youself to fall under the accepted common wisdon, that we as New Dems have no place to go with our vote. I would vote NDP, regardless of the riding I was in. I have voted for many "fat chance" New Dems. It isn't about who actually wins in those rigings. You have to send the message that there is a New Dem prescence, and that we will come on.

Don't vote strategically. It is the worst possible thing you can do. Do not do it. Don't vote out of fear! I can't say it any more stronly then that. I do NOTHING out of fear, and neither should you.

jimmyjim

HornAfrique wrote:

This is something that I'm grappling with going to vote tommorrow. I live in one of these ridings, Nepean-Carleton, where it seems the NDP is running a distant third. I'm much more partial to the NDP and have generally voted NDP in previous elections both at the federal and provincial level. However I really cannot stand my local Conservative MP( Pierre Poillievere), and it seems the only challenge towards him is presented from the Liberals. I'd rather not vote Liberal and I'm generally not a fan of the party, however I admittedly would like to see Pierre fall more. That's unlikely to happen so I might just vote with my preference and vote NDP. However this is a dilemma thats facing a lot of progressive voters in ridings like mine.

Here is the thing in that ridding with the Liberal numbers no one has a chance. However your local NDP canidate is only a few hundred votes in securing enough to get their election rebate. That rebate will do a lot to build the ridding so a progressive voice can fight there. I would say because no one has a chance there PP is going to get over 50% of the vote give if to the NDP. Help grow that ridding.

Policywonk

I think the truth is somewhere in between. There are still quite a few ridings where the Conservatives are untouchable. But I wouldn't want to predict who would be the more likely person to finish second in a lot of the ridings listed.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I think the issue is about building New Dem presence.

Voting strategically is buying into and backing up the Con-Lib narrative that the New Dems are not viable. Sometimes you do things for the future. As New Dems, we know that better then anyone. As I said, I voted for Max Melnyk in 1980 in River Heights. He didn't have a chance, but that isn't the point.

These guys need to know we are breathing down their neck, and that we won't give up untill we beat them. If you vote for the other guy, he's never going to hear that message.

Don't vote out of fear! Don't do it!

clambake

I voted Liberal in Mississauga-Erin Dale. I like the NDP candidate and everything, but there's no visibility for the party here and it really is a two-way race again. Our riding also had the misfortune of our original NDP candidate drop out and endorse Harper.

clambake

I voted Liberal in Mississauga-Erin Dale. I like the NDP candidate and everything, but there's no visibility for the party here and it really is a two-way race again. Our riding also had the misfortune of our original NDP candidate drop out and endorse Harper.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I think the last Nanos poll is being released on CTV at 10 pm tonight (in 25 minutes).

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Was there a New Dem? If there was, you should have voted for him/her?

Why, see above.

Its a no-brainer.

janfromthebruce

Vote for what you want and feel good that you did so. I do each time and never regret my vote no matter the outcome (and I live in a riding where my candidate - NDP - has not won). This time there are tons of NDP signs and so when people actually vote for what they want it changes the dynamic in the riding.

 

Also, in some of those ridings where the other candidates in the previous election were so far behind that really it's really vote for what you want.

 

clambake

In terms of visibility, I asked them to put up an NDP lawn sign but it never arrived :/

 

Northern-54

Last Nanos released (last 2 days - 3 days in brackets):

Conservative 37.1%  (36.9%)

NDP 31.6% (31.6%)

Liberal 20.5% (21.3%)

Bloc 5.7% (5.2%)

Green 3.8% (3.3%)

 

 

 

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

RM the question is in how many of these will the NDP finish second. If the answer is greater than one, I would request a copy of the receipt of a $100 donation to Fair Vote Canada - who are committed to ending this nonsense once and for all. If the answer is zero (and no NDP wins either, of course) I will post the same. Game on?

Edited for iTouch-induced spelling error.

Anonymouse

clambake wrote:

I voted Liberal in Mississauga-Erin Dale. I like the NDP candidate and everything, but there's no visibility for the party here and it really is a two-way race again. Our riding also had the misfortune of our original NDP candidate drop out and endorse Harper.

This is more like it. Someone that lives in their own riding and is making their own choice. As opposed to someone directing the "poor stupid Canadians" from afar on who they have to vote for.

Uncle John

If Peterborough goes NDP, it is an NDP government.

Vansterdam Kid

He was probably in Abbotsford because it's a friendly crowd. If we've learned nothing else about Harper's campaign so far, it's that he's not really into the concept of opposing views. There are a few ridings further west, or across the river, that could go NDP though. But the Valley would probably vote for a toilet as long as it was Blue.

HornAfrique

Appreciate the feedback. I was only voicing my musings but I will vote NDP when it comes to it, and I'll encourage family and friends to do the same. In the spirit of constructive criticism, I think a greater visibilty in this riding could help. Maybe my support could help building to that direction in the future.

Anonymouse

Uncle John wrote:

If Peterborough goes NDP, it is an NDP government.

Probably. Scar-Rouge River was the site of a rally for Jack this evening and 600! people showed up to a rally for Jack & his candidate in Bramalea-Gore-Malton 1 week ago and no, they were not bussed in from Toronto. A bunch of these people were also among the crowd giving Layton a rock star welcome at the Toronto Khalsa Day parade.

ETA: CTV reports 1000+ showed up to the NDP rally in Scar-Rouge River this evening. "It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows"

finois finois's picture

ReeferMadness wrote:

Policywonk wrote:

ReeferMadness wrote:

finois wrote:

F#$K THE STRATEGIC VOTING

We are ONLY 2 points behind Harper.

THE ONLY STRATEGIC VOTE IN EVERY RIDING IS NDP.

You're dreaming in technicolor.  The polls are bouncing like basketballs and nobody knows what's going to happen after tomorrow.  But there are plenty of ridings where some parties (even the NDP) simply aren't going to be competitive.  Stop the NDP giddiness and be smart.

The trouble is that in this situation, there are very few ridings where it's clear who is competitive and who isn't. Granted there are some ridings where some parties aren't going to be competitive, but it's not at all clear that people agree where they are, except mainly for the ones where no-one except the Conservatives are competitive. As some ridings in Quebec will show, a 20 point lead from the last election doesn't necessarily mean much when one party is surging. You can allow us some giddiness, as there has never been a federal election like this one.

Are you kidding me??  It would be easy to identify 100 - 150 ridings where the NDP has very little chance.  Not to mention 307 ridings where the Greens have very little chance. As I said before, if you think your preferred candidate has a hope, vote for her or him.  If not, this might be an idea worth considering.

Also, the 20 point lead is not based on the last election, it's based on current projections.  Their methodology is here.  They readily admit that it isn't perfect; however, it's unlikely that it will be out by 15 or 20 points.  The predictions seem to be more or less in line with what everyone else is predicting.  Have all the giddiness you want - just don't hand Harper a majority out of pig-headed ness.

To prove my point, I'll pick several dozen ridings that the NDP will not win tomorrow.   I'm basing my picks solely on Democratic Space projections.  I'm picking ridings where the NDP is running third or is off the lead by 20 points or more (or both).  Let's check back tomorrow and see how many of these seats have NDP MP's

 

Carleton-Mississippi Mills

Ottawa-Orleans

Ottawa South

Ottawa West-Nepean

Nepean-Carleton

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Lanark-Frontenac-L & A

Leeds-Grenville

Prince Edward-Hastings

Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke

Stormont-Dundas-S Glengarry

Barrie

Durham

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock

Parry Sound-Muskoka

Peterborough

Northumberland-Quinte West

Simcoe North

York-Simcoe

Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound

Dufferin-Caledon

Wellington-Halton Hills

Oxford

London West

Burlington

Haldimand-Norfolk

Niagara Falls

Niagara West-Glanbrook

St. Catharines

Brampton-Springdale

Ajax-Pickering

Bramalea-Gore-Malton

Brampton West

Halton

Markham-Unionville

Mississauga-Brampton South

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Mississauga-Erindale

Mississauga South

Mississauga-Streetsville

Newmarket-Aurora

Oak Ridges-Markham

Oakville

Pickering-Scarborough East

Richmond Hill

Thornhill

Vaughan

Whitby-Oshawa

Etobicoke Centre

Etobicoke Lakeshore

Etobicoke North

St. Paul's

Scarborough-Agincourt

Scarborough Centre

Scarborough-Guildwood

Scarborough-Rouge River

Toronto Centre

Willowdale

York Centre

York West

 BEFORE YOU MAKE THESE ASSUMPTIONS.

CAN IU HAVE THE INDIVIDUAL RIDING POLLS YOU ARE QUOTING TO MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION

THIS IS NOT A NORMAL ELECTION.

Dealing with historic data will not be a lot of help in this election.

We have hardly any individual polls in these ridings. Until i see 3 polls on individual ridings i cannot agree with your assumption

i live on a rural  country road in conservative scott reid heartland north of kingston where my 5 neighbours totalled 14 people

10 voted tory last election 2 ndp my household and 2 libs

This time it is 13 jack 2 cons according to declarations with one new voter.

So where does this sit in your plans for strategy. LIBERALS WERE SECOND LAST TIME

 

VOTE THE WAY YOU FEEL..i

t is one of the real freedoms we have

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@HornAfrique:

 

Glad to hear that. Good for you! And yep, you have hit the nail on the head. THIS is how we build a presence for the future.

 

Go get em kid! I'll be doing the same!

 

 

 

Uncle John

For ANYONE to show up at a rally in Scarborough is impressive!

And Scar-Rouge River is impressive because you can't get around there without a car.

 

I lived in SSW for 8 years so I can say this...

I think if the NDP takes any in Scarborough, Scarborough Southwest will be the first to go.

People have been seeing Dan Harris signs at least since 2004. Not only that but it is adjacent to the Beach which is also pretty NDP.

Some of the local businesses overlap between the Beach and the Bluffs.

Stimson doesnt have the Liberals for Life that Wappel had, and the Tory guy seems to have

some kind of Tamil Tigers controversy. Wappel is rumoured to have encouraged his fans to go for the Tories,

which could perversely help Dan Harris.

In Beaches East York 2 of my neighbors put their Maria Minna signs in their recycle bins, and the

Minna signs which are left are recycles from a prior campaign.

Harper was saying a vote for the Libs is a vote for the NDP. I think he has that the wrong way around.

In Ontario, a vote for the Libs is a vote for the Cons.

Meanwhile Iggy is pleading for loyalty which means he is desperate.

Sean in Ottawa

In fairness it is your vote.

If you want to vote strategically -- and you think you know best then do it. Most here consider it a crap-shoot but once again it is your vote.

Some people vote from hope, some from fear some to stop someone some to promote someone.

Nobody here should crap on a person who is going out to vote tomorrow.

I am no fan of organized strategic vote sites designed to promote one party more than any others. However, lets not criticize people for making agonizing choices in ridings they think are close.

Sean in Ottawa

I will underline however that in my opinion-- this election is so unpredictable that strategic voting is more dangerous than usual because there are no rules and no way of knowing the order of the parties.

However, I too could point to some where there could be a guess that it may be close between a Liberal and Con and the NDP is not likely in it -- there is one such riding in PEI...

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