babble-intro-img
babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.

Get ready for Justin-mania!

425 replies [Last post]

Comments

Rebecca West
Offline
Joined: Nov 28 2001

janfromthebruce wrote:

This whole idea of a popularity contest winning the day, well I don't think that is true in all regards. Take Jack, elected leader in 2003, went on to win steady growth and although he eventually became a popular all around leader that did not happen until about 2008, and his "chisma" happen in 2011. It took remaining steady to social democratic goals, doing what he said, and showing fortitude.

I agree Jan.  I'm not a party faithful - I'm a member just so I can vote during a leadership convention.  I joined to vote for Layton - not because I liked him best, for if that were the criteria I would've voted for Joe Comartin - but because he was the most likely to move the party forward, gain seats, etc. 

JT will likely gain the leadership because he is so necessary to the successful rebuilding of the party. Still, it IS the LPC, as corrupt and entitled a bunch if there ever were, and given that they made Iggy Thumbscrews leader, knowing that his optics were poor, says a lot about the privilege of people who think they can display a stunning lack of judgement and still win.  The  complete failure of Iggy may have been a humbling experience, but will the party faithful learn from it?


autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
Aristotleded24 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
As for Mulcair's triangulation stategy of saying one thing about 'Dutch Disease', the 'tar sands', and monetary policy in Ontario, while speaking against pipelines to the Pacific, but promoting 'oil sands' pipelines to Eastern refineries

Sounds a great deal like the old National Energy Policy. Which Prime Minister brought that in again?

autoworker wrote:
while straddling the Rideau and saying nothing substantial about anything germane to Quebec, and the National Question (lest he upset his temperamental constituency there)

What is there to say? It's not a huge issue in Quebec. The sovereigntist parties do not have control of the National Assembly, and former sovereigntist Premier Jacques Parizeau even campaigned against his own former party because he didn't feel they were hardline enough on that question. It's a case of the media trying to bring up old wounds that nobody in Quebec wishes to revisit.

Mulcair's energy strategy doesn't begin to compare with the Trudeau government's National Energy Program, that was defeated mostly by a collapse in oil prices, rather than Western resistance. It's lamentably ironic that Canada is the only major oil producer without a nationalized oil company, while foreign state entities are both currently involved (Statoil), and actively seeking (CNOOC) positions in tar sands development. It is doubly ironic and lamentable that Justin finds it necessary to repudiate, and distance himself, from his father's legacy. I disagree that the National Question had no relevance to the Quebec election. I believe it was very much on the minds of Canadians who may have thought the issue was put to rest. Mulcair needs to address Mme. Marois' stated intent to accrue more powers from federal jurisdiction. Also, Mulcair could have reminded all parties that freedom of association, and religious symbols, are the prerogative of individual liberties enshrined within the Charter of Rights and Freedoms (another Trudeau legacy that has been overridden, and, at this instance, conveniently ignored).

Rebecca West
Offline
Joined: Nov 28 2001

autoworker wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
As for Mulcair's triangulation stategy of saying one thing about 'Dutch Disease', the 'tar sands', and monetary policy in Ontario, while speaking against pipelines to the Pacific, but promoting 'oil sands' pipelines to Eastern refineries

Sounds a great deal like the old National Energy Policy. Which Prime Minister brought that in again?

autoworker wrote:
while straddling the Rideau and saying nothing substantial about anything germane to Quebec, and the National Question (lest he upset his temperamental constituency there)

What is there to say? It's not a huge issue in Quebec. The sovereigntist parties do not have control of the National Assembly, and former sovereigntist Premier Jacques Parizeau even campaigned against his own former party because he didn't feel they were hardline enough on that question. It's a case of the media trying to bring up old wounds that nobody in Quebec wishes to revisit.

Mulcair's energy strategy doesn't begin to compare with the Trudeau government's National Energy Program, that was defeated mostly by a collapse in oil prices, rather than Western resistance. It's lamentably ironic that Canada is the only major oil producer without a nationalized oil company, while foreign state entities are both currently involved (Statoil), and actively seeking (CNOOC) positions in tar sands development. It is doubly ironic and lamentable that Justin finds it necessary to repudiate, and distance himself, from his father's legacy. I disagree that the National Question had no relevance to the Quebec election. I believe it was very much on the minds of Canadians who may have thought the issue was put to rest. Mulcair needs to address Mme. Marois' stated intent to accrue more powers from federal jurisdiction. Also, Mulcair could have reminded all parties that freedom of association, and religious symbols, are the prerogative of individual liberties enshrined within the Charter of Rights and Freedoms (another Trudeau legacy that has been overridden, and, at this instance, conveniently ignored).

Petro Canada was defeated by the Tories.  Mulroney started its decline and Harper finished it. The national energy plan was a knee-jerk response of the PET gov't, and included a rationale for undermining Canadian workers. OPEC got to be the bad boys, and every Western leader, including PET, exploited the situation to grind down any and all opposition to their gov'ts.

Cowardly, at best.


kropotkin1951
Offline
Joined: Jun 6 2002

Yes the Liberals would benefit immensely if the NDP tired to reopen the constitutional debate.  It would cost them votes in every region of the country and I think that Quebec would be the place it would hurt them most.  Jack won those seats by studiously side stepping the question.  After all as a non Quebecker it seems to me it is up to the citizens of that province/country to determine their future.  When there is a consensus in Quebec then they can come to the table and negotiate with the other provinces and territories over what historical injustices require fixing and how all the citizens in the country will benefit by any proposed changes.  Both Mulroney and Trudeau proved that the constitutional minefield is neither a left or right issue.  I am proud to say that in the last referendum I voted with the majority of the people of Quebec as well as the majority of the people in BC.  I did not vote the way the central Canadian overlords wanted, imagine that?

NDP'ers might want to revisit the election results after they bowed to the overlords and supported an unpopular "fix" of the constitution.


Rebecca West
Offline
Joined: Nov 28 2001

Rebecca West wrote:

autoworker wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
As for Mulcair's triangulation stategy of saying one thing about 'Dutch Disease', the 'tar sands', and monetary policy in Ontario, while speaking against pipelines to the Pacific, but promoting 'oil sands' pipelines to Eastern refineries

Sounds a great deal like the old National Energy Policy. Which Prime Minister brought that in again?

autoworker wrote:
while straddling the Rideau and saying nothing substantial about anything germane to Quebec, and the National Question (lest he upset his temperamental constituency there)

What is there to say? It's not a huge issue in Quebec. The sovereigntist parties do not have control of the National Assembly, and former sovereigntist Premier Jacques Parizeau even campaigned against his own former party because he didn't feel they were hardline enough on that question. It's a case of the media trying to bring up old wounds that nobody in Quebec wishes to revisit.

Mulcair's energy strategy doesn't begin to compare with the Trudeau government's National Energy Program, that was defeated mostly by a collapse in oil prices, rather than Western resistance. It's lamentably ironic that Canada is the only major oil producer without a nationalized oil company, while foreign state entities are both currently involved (Statoil), and actively seeking (CNOOC) positions in tar sands development. It is doubly ironic and lamentable that Justin finds it necessary to repudiate, and distance himself, from his father's legacy. I disagree that the National Question had no relevance to the Quebec election. I believe it was very much on the minds of Canadians who may have thought the issue was put to rest. Mulcair needs to address Mme. Marois' stated intent to accrue more powers from federal jurisdiction. Also, Mulcair could have reminded all parties that freedom of association, and religious symbols, are the prerogative of individual liberties enshrined within the Charter of Rights and Freedoms (another Trudeau legacy that has been overridden, and, at this instance, conveniently ignored).

Petro Canada was defeated by the Tories.  Mulroney started its decline and Harper finished it. The national energy plan was a knee-jerk response of the PET gov't, and included a rationale for undermining Canadian workers. OPEC got to be the bad boys, and every Western leader, including PET, exploited the situation to grind down any and all opposition to their gov'ts.

Cowardly, at best. BTW, when Nixon floated the dollar, casino capitalism was the  match du jour.


Aristotleded24
Offline
Joined: May 24 2005

autoworker wrote:
Mulcair's energy strategy doesn't begin to compare with the Trudeau government's National Energy Program, that was defeated mostly by a collapse in oil prices, rather than Western resistance.

Why don't you join me for coffee here in Winnipeg, and you can ask people here what they thought of Trudeau and the NEP?


kropotkin1951
Offline
Joined: Jun 6 2002

I'd meet in a seniors centre if I were you since that will be where you will find the people who have actual adult memories of the event. 

You might even get some of them to tell you how much they liked the slogan, "let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark."


autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
@ Rebecca West: Pierre Trudeau was not a coward. I have difficulty understanding how you arrived at that characterization.

mark_alfred
Offline
Joined: Jan 3 2004

Whatever the initial fanfare over Trudeau, should he win the Liberal leadership, it would not last.  He'd have his butt kicked in a debate, like Ignatieff and Martin did, and lose come election time. 

My hope is that the Liberals can do a bit better with ridings that have a high proportion of recent immigrants who previously went Conservative, and take these due to the last-name recognition factor, and reduce the Conservatives to a plurality win, with the NDP second and the Liberals an improved third.


autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
Aristotleded24 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
Mulcair's energy strategy doesn't begin to compare with the Trudeau government's National Energy Program, that was defeated mostly by a collapse in oil prices, rather than Western resistance.

Why don't you join me for coffee here in Winnipeg, and you can ask people here what they thought of Trudeau and the NEP?

I understand that Manitobans identify as Westerners, but I don't see how they would have an affinity with Alberta oil. Besides, Winnipeg stood to benefit from the NEP as much as Toronto or Montreal.

autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
kropotkin1951 wrote:

I'd meet in a seniors centre if I were you since that will be where you will find the people who have actual adult memories of the event. 

You might even get some of them to tell you how much they liked the slogan, "let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark."

Is that the same Ralph Klein fan club which also believes that "dinosaur farts" caused the last climatic catastrophe?

Aristotleded24
Offline
Joined: May 24 2005

autoworker wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

autoworker wrote:
Mulcair's energy strategy doesn't begin to compare with the Trudeau government's National Energy Program, that was defeated mostly by a collapse in oil prices, rather than Western resistance.

Why don't you join me for coffee here in Winnipeg, and you can ask people here what they thought of Trudeau and the NEP?

I understand that Manitobans identify as Westerners, but I don't see how they would have an affinity with Alberta oil. Besides, Winnipeg stood to benefit from the NEP as much as Toronto or Montreal.

It has nothing to do with affinity for Alberta oil, and everthing to do with the fact that people west of Kenora generally feel that Ontario dictates everything to them and that Western Canadian voices don't count.

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I'd meet in a seniors centre if I were you since that will be where you will find the people who have actual adult memories of the event. 

You might even get some of them to tell you how much they liked the slogan, "let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark."

I did hear that slogan. True, those who have the strongest negative impressions of Trudeau are generally a great deal older, but by and large, I'd say that overall negative impressions have been passed down.


socialdemocrati...
Offline
Joined: Jan 10 2012

I think it depends on where you're from geographically. My parents are immigrants who moved to Toronto. They have a lot of positive things to say about Pierre Trudeau. Although my dad pointed out he inherited his wealth, and was generally arrogant. And I'm sure there are parts of the country (Westward and Francophone) where that played particularly poorly.


autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
Assuming that Justin obtains the leadership, his success or failure in the next election will likely hinge on whether the Liberals can swing manic voters away from Steven Harper in Ontario-- thus proving once again that, in matters of the heart, emotion trumps reason, and charisma reigns triumphant. It may yet come down to a difference in hairstyles.

kropotkin1951
Offline
Joined: Jun 6 2002

mark_alfred wrote:

My hope is that the Liberals can do a bit better with ridings that have a high proportion of recent immigrants who previously went Conservative, and take these due to the last-name recognition factor, and reduce the Conservatives to a plurality win, with the NDP second and the Liberals an improved third.

I far as I can tell recent immigrants know little about Trudeau other than the Charter which comes up in citizenship courses. He has not been a prominent political force in this country for nearly thirty years so I don't see the connection to new immigrants. I think the Trudeau name is more recognizable to Canada born voters and immigrants pre-1990 and would not have a great deal of resonance with immigrants who have arrived here in the last 25 years. 


janfromthebruce
Offline
Joined: Apr 24 2007

autoworker wrote:
Assuming that Justin obtains the leadership, his success or failure in the next election will likely hinge on whether the Liberals can swing manic voters away from Steven Harper in Ontario-- thus proving once again that, in matters of the heart, emotion trumps reason, and charisma reigns triumphant. It may yet come down to a difference in hairstyles.

 

Well if that's it, Mulcair will win. Remember Mulcair knew how to dress and look smart and talk right during the Calgary Stampede, and generally made a big splash. And his passion shines through and it's just the corporate liberal press who wants to paint him as not likeable. I find him quite likeable and formable and informative, and knows what he talks of - not fluffy, boy stuff.


Arthur Cramer
Offline
Joined: Nov 30 2010

You`ll notice that the loudest protestations of Mulcair being ``angry`` come from Liberals or their supporters.


Brachina
Offline
Joined: Feb 15 2012

janfromthebruce wrote:

autoworker wrote:
Assuming that Justin obtains the leadership, his success or failure in the next election will likely hinge on whether the Liberals can swing manic voters away from Steven Harper in Ontario-- thus proving once again that, in matters of the heart, emotion trumps reason, and charisma reigns triumphant. It may yet come down to a difference in hairstyles.

 

Well if that's it, Mulcair will win. Remember Mulcair knew how to dress and look smart and talk right during the Calgary Stampede, and generally made a big splash. And his passion shines through and it's just the corporate liberal press who wants to paint him as not likeable. I find him quite likeable and formable and informative, and knows what he talks of - not fluffy, boy stuff.

Mulcair is ten times the man Trudeau is and he did look good in a cowboy outfit.

Aristotleded24
Offline
Joined: May 24 2005

autoworker wrote:
Assuming that Justin obtains the leadership, his success or failure in the next election will likely hinge on whether the Liberals can swing manic voters away from Steven Harper in Ontario-- thus proving once again that, in matters of the heart, emotion trumps reason, and charisma reigns triumphant. It may yet come down to a difference in hairstyles.

Let's break that down a bit. Ontario is a huge province, encompassing roughtly the frontier north (think Thunder Bay, Timmins, Cochrane, Sudbury, Sault Ste. Marie), the rural southwest and southeast (think Kingston, Kitchener, London), the industrial cities (think Windsor, London, Hamilton, Oshawa) the GTA including Toronto Proper, Vaughn, Mississauga, and Brampton, and Ottawa. The north is a Conservative-NDP battle, and the rural south is staunchly Conservative. Even assuming a straght-line transposition of the trending vote patterns from 2008-2015, that makes the Liberals only relevant in the GTA and Ottawa, or approximately 50 seats out of approximately 100, depending on how the redistibution works. Even assuming that the Liberals sweep all these areas (this would include seats that have tough NDP and Conservative incumbents) that would only net them a gain of about 50 seats, and to sweep all of Ontario (which will not happen as I've outlined) that would only give them about 130 seats, far short of what they would need for a governeing coalition. And remember that the Conservatives in whatever incarnation have always won about 18-20% of the seats in Ontario (notwithstanding the Reform/PC split) even under Trudeaumania.

Put another way, to focus on Ontario would not give the Liberals near enough seats to be in serious contention for federal government, and there's absolutely no way that Trudeau will have an impact on large portions of Ontario simply because the on-the-ground networks have been in decline, and evidence of that decline has shown up in the Liberals losing seats in Ontario like crazy from 2004 onwards.


autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
@Aristotleded24: Nothing is carved in stone, and, indeed, Ontario is diverse (with strengths and weaknesses for all parties, in different regions of the province), but I still believe that the road to 24 Sussex requires a majority of the votes there (something that Harper achieved last election), and the Liberals may be able to reverse that, should Justin retain his current popularity. If Liberals feel that they have a thoroughbred in the next race, organization and money will not be an obstacle.

janfromthebruce
Offline
Joined: Apr 24 2007

who cares what wee justie does - so far he's empty of substance, and his work history claim to fame is "private school teacher" - and "snowboard instructor".


autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
janfromthebruce wrote:

who cares what wee justie does - so far he's empty of substance, and his work history claim to fame is "private school teacher" - and "snowboard instructor".

Apparently, many Canadians care enough that the MSM can't get enough of the latest buzz on him-- which is what this thread is about: Justin-mania!

kropotkin1951
Offline
Joined: Jun 6 2002

autoworker wrote:

Apparently, many Canadians care enough that the MSM can't get enough of the latest buzz on him-- which is what this thread is about: Justin-mania!

I think you are mistaking the MSM propaganda machine for the cart when it is in fact the horse.


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

yesterday fb ask a question about prime minister that what they want:

Mulcair - 163
Trudeau - 115
May - 63
Harper - 7

 

so Trudeau wont going to be prime minister! GOOD NEWS?!


autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
kropotkin1951 wrote:

autoworker wrote:

Apparently, many Canadians care enough that the MSM can't get enough of the latest buzz on him-- which is what this thread is about: Justin-mania!

I think you are mistaking the MSM propaganda machine for the cart when it is in fact the horse.

That looks like a donkey to me. In which case, it's the Democrats who have their ass backwards. Obama needs to get his in gear,... or else: President Mitt... Hee Haw!

autoworker
Offline
Joined: Dec 21 2008
Ippurigakko wrote:

yesterday fb ask a question about prime minister that what they want:

Mulcair - 163
Trudeau - 115
May - 63
Harper - 7

 

so Trudeau wont going to be prime minister! GOOD NEWS?!

I'd take those numbers...so would the Liberals and Greens, no doubt.

socialdemocrati...
Offline
Joined: Jan 10 2012

Arthur Cramer wrote:

You`ll notice that the loudest protestations of Mulcair being ``angry`` come from Liberals or their supporters.

Yep, I still haven't heard anything that would distinguish him as more angry than anyone else who debates in Ottawa as a career.


Boom Boom
Offline
Joined: Dec 29 2004

CTV's QP had an interview with Deborah Coyne, and the host said her website is 50 times more informative than Justin's, and went on to talk about a bit of family rivaldy, and Coyne said no, both families keep separate.


jerrym
Offline
Joined: May 30 2009

Looking at why Pierre won a majority during his first 1968 election is instructive about Justin's chances of success. Pierre had already had substantial accomplishments as Justice Minister in drafting legislation including "decriminalization of homosexual acts between consenting adults, the legalization of contraception, abortion and lotteries, and new gun ownership restrictions as well as the authorization of breathalyzer tests", (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Trudeau) while Justin has none.

Trudeaumania was still in full bloom when he called the election only weeks after being chosen leader, while Justin will have to wait three years after the flowering of Trudmania II, even if makes him leader of the party. Three years after being chosen leader, Pierre's Trudeaumania was gone and only having the luck of facing the antithesis of charisma, Stanfield, kept him in power as a minority government.

Finally, Pierre had the great good fortune to look courageous at the St. Jean Baptiste parade on the eve of the 1968 election by refusing to hide from the bottles and rocks being thrown at him, making him look like a hero, especially to Anglophone Canada who saw him as the man who would stand up to Quebec. With that he won a substantial majority instead of only a minority or bare majority that the polls were predicting. On the other hand, Justin has to deal with the legacy of the Trudeau name on the prairies where mud would be to kind a description and try to square his appeal to ROC with appealing to a more nationalistic Quebec. Having a St. Jenn Baptiste type incident occur at just the right time for maximum effect is unlikely to occur twice.

The odds are high that the bloom will be off the Justin rose well before the 2015 election even if, as likely, he wins the Liberal leadership because the competition is so weak. 


Aristotleded24
Offline
Joined: May 24 2005

autoworker wrote:
@Aristotleded24: Nothing is carved in stone, and, indeed, Ontario is diverse (with strengths and weaknesses for all parties, in different regions of the province), but I still believe that the road to 24 Sussex requires a majority of the votes there (something that Harper achieved last election), and the Liberals may be able to reverse that, should Justin retain his current popularity. If Liberals feel that they have a thoroughbred in the next race, organization and money will not be an obstacle.

Ontario is not the whole country, and even if the Liberals were to sweep all of Ontario (which is highly unlikely for the reasons I outlined above) that still doesn't give them enough seats to form a majority government, especially when they are so unpopular in other parts of the country that are gaining more clout in Parliament as they add more seats compared to Ontario. And it is possible to win government without winning Ontario, as Mulroney demostrated in 1988, and as Harper demonstrated in 2006 and 2008.


Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or register to post comments