The Impending Trudeau-Scheer Grand Coalition?

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Sean in Ottawa

cco wrote:
R.E.Wood wrote:

Thanks Sean for your thoughtful analysis of potential coalition scenarios. I wonder, is it not possible that the Liberals and BQ could form government together without drawing the ire of the rest of Canada outside Quebec?  If such a  government were to give Quebec more-or-less whatever the BQ demanded, while also being free to govern the rest of the country as the Liberals see fit, could that not be a recipe for a minority government that could last longer than average? And regarding the pipeline, is it also not possible that in such a government the BQ might not object to the expansion of a pipeline between Alberta and BC, since it doesn't involve Quebec (and they really don't give a damn about the rest of the country)? I certainly can envision such a scenario playing out.

As a Quebecer, I don't see that happening (bearing in mind that I don't have a crystal ball, and all kinds of insane things have happened in politics here). It'd undermine each party's ideological base at a fundamental level.

For the last quarter-century, the Liberals have campaigned in Quebec on one basic line: "The Bloc's useless." Meanwhile, the Bloc campaigns on "Ottawa's hopeless". For the Liberals to give any kind of concessions the Bloc would find worthwhile, like a new constitutional accord, it'd require them to admit there was a legitimate reason for voting Bloc in the first place. A comparison might be made with the Conservatives allying with the Greens on a "stop pipelines" budget. There's ideological overlap in both of their coalitions, but there are some fundamental stumbling blocks there.

Also, for the Bloc to consent to forcing a pipeline through BC while ignoring the fact the same precedent would allow one to be forced through Quebec, it'd have to demonstrate the kind of ideological shortsightedness that I don't think it has. And what could the Liberals really promise in exchange? With a minority backed by the Bloc, they wouldn't have the legitimacy to push through a constitutional amendment even if it didn't require consent of provincial legislatures. At best, they could offer more money and a few tweaks like a single tax return. That's hardly the "beau risque" that'd justify putting a Bloc stamp of approval on Trudeau.

No, as counterintuitive as it seems, I can see the Bloc entering into an arrangement with either the Tories or the NDP – on different grounds – but not the Liberals. Both the Liberals and the Bloc would be writing off their own bases if they did so.

As I said the Conservatives are more likely - not becuase they are closer in positions but because they are big enough to not need their votes and abstentions would be enough. It is also possible that the Greens and NDP could even agree to the same pact in order to avoid a new election. an agreement that requires positive votes woudl be nearly impossible to create right now given the pipeline debate.

I anticipate that the most liekly result of the election - unless a party gets a majority - is some kind of nonaggression pact rather than a policy-based agreement to govern. Only the Conservatives and Liberals have the means at this point for that although other parties may be very pleased to see it happen...

Aristotleded24

cco wrote:
Also, for the Bloc to consent to forcing a pipeline through BC while ignoring the fact the same precedent would allow one to be forced through Quebec, it'd have to demonstrate the kind of ideological shortsightedness that I don't think it has.

I can remember former Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard actually speaking in BC's defense on the pipeline issue. He said that even if the feds technically had the jurisdiction that imposing their will on the provinces anyways would have negative repurcussions.

NorthReport

 

The pipeline will go through with the support of the Liberals and the Conservatives together if need be

https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/political-opinion/2019/10/04/every-party-needs-to-win-in-battleground-bc.html?__twitter_impression=true

Misfit Misfit's picture

What about no one work together and we have a new election next spring?

Aristotleded24

Misfit wrote:
What about no one work together and we have a new election next spring?

That will hand Scheer a majority.

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

What about no one work together and we have a new election next spring?

You need at least a nonaggression pact to get to spring. This is why I am suggesting the LPC and CPC could do that. Other parties do not have the strength to avoid an alliance.

No pact at all works only if there is someone close to a majority and it takes a combined opposition to pull them down. If LPC and CPC are close then you need some aggreement to avoid an election even if you do not have one on policy - which I think would be impossible now.

Sean in Ottawa

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Misfit wrote:
What about no one work together and we have a new election next spring?

That will hand Scheer a majority.

Maybe but not certain.

brookmere

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
That is why this coalition (by that I mean loose short term arrangement not actualy coaliton) is possible.

Well thanks for setting us straight on that. Of course in a minority situation (or majority for that matter) parties will form alignments on various issues that they think will benefit them electorally. Harper and Layton even did that - ask Bill Siskay.

But when I say coalition, that's what I actually mean. And that doesn't even include the current arrangement in BC, which I commend the BC NDP for maintaining for over two years in the face of widespread skepticism.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I do not see any grand coalition however I also do not see a Conservative minority budget or Throne Speech being defeated in the House because the Liberals would vote for them. Canadians don't like to go to the polls too often and unless the Conservatives prove to be far dumber than Harper's governments those documents will be crafted with poison pills embedded, leaving them ready made election issues crafted to allow them to run from their strengths.

R.E.Wood

Thanks Sean and cco for your convincing arguments regarding the BQ!

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I do not see any grand coalition however I also do not see a Conservative minority budget or Throne Speech being defeated in the House because the Liberals would vote for them. Canadians don't like to go to the polls too often and unless the Conservatives prove to be far dumber than Harper's governments those documents will be crafted with poison pills embedded, leaving them ready made election issues crafted to allow them to run from their strengths.

I do not see Liberals voting for a Conservative budget - this seems to be a very partisan opinion. Why would they? If they abstain it passes and no election. What possible reason would there be for the Liberals to vote for a Conservative budget that does not need their support to pass? this is why the Liberals and Conservatives can have a pact more easily -- they do not have to vote for each other's budgets to assure passage. Pacts with smaller parties require direct on-record support.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Sean please read my posts carefully before you reply. I don't want to get into a dispute with you but frankly my post is specifically talking about a Conservative minority. How do you think Harper ruled this country for so long with a minority? Sometimes he got the Liberals to support him and sometimes he got the NDP or Bloc to support him and he even got everyone except Bill Siskay to vote for a law that was a clear breach of Charter Rights, because they were all afraid to run against the Conservatives on the issue of getting tough on crime. That is the kind of strategy that we have seen in the past so why do you think it is not going to happen again if the Conservatives get a minority?

Sean in Ottawa

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Sean please read my posts carefully before you reply. I don't want to get into a dispute with you but frankly my post is specifically talking about a Conservative minority. How do you think Harper ruled this country for so long with a minority? Sometimes he got the Liberals to support him and sometimes he got the NDP or Bloc to support him and he even got everyone except Bill Siskay to vote for a law that was a clear breach of Charter Rights, because they were all afraid to run against the Conservatives on the issue of getting tough on crime. That is the kind of strategy that we have seen in the past so why do you think it is not going to happen again if the Conservatives get a minority?

You are harsh on this board frequently. You should hold yourself to the same standard you frequently shove down other people's throats.

I read you clearly - you are talking about Liberals voting for a Conservative budget. I am saying there is no reason to think they would need to if it would pass without their help. Exceptionally the Liberals could do it to avoid an election but that is not the point you made -- the NDP could as well for the same reason. They would not naturally be inclined to vote for the CPC on a budget if abstention did not create an election. 

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Whatever

NorthReport

.

Aristotleded24

Given the increasing likelihood that no party will win an outright majority, how did this thread get buried?

NorthReport

I hope all Canadians realize this is what is coming. The Liberals will never ever work with the NDP!!!

Sean in Ottawa

Forget coalition. The two biggest parties do not need one. If the one in government has more seats than the rest of the opposition, the second party only needs to agree not to bring them down for a term to create a stable government.

Without positive support there is less blowback. Smaller parties actually may need to deliver positive support to keep a government in power whereas large parties are enough that they can abstain, not vote or not show up and that is all that is required. They can even allow a small number to vote against the government and meet the requirement.

An arrangement of any kind between the Liberals and Conservates would likely be short term as are these sorts of things usually are but necessarily. Parties in a leadership race as one is likely are not likely to want to go to election and the same goes for parties without a lot of money (think of the NDP here).

The people are unlikely to want a second election if the result is unlikely to change and many may even be happy to see the Liberals and Conservatives agree on anything given the state the rhetoric is (PM wearing a bullet proof vest is an indication of a serious problem). Regardless of consipracy theories or accusations of over reaction we are at the point where we have genuine concern that things are potentially getting violent. What we see is enough to know that some less stable and peaceful people could see what is going on as permission for violence. I think that violence is an integral part of extreme right rhetoric now and that extreme right is dominant in two of the national parties.

An NDP arrangement is also possible and it may be a for the good of the country (and party finances for the NDP and leadership for the Conservatives) that could lead to some people even favouring a brief multi party agreement between NDP, CPC and LPC as long as there was something each party could get for a period of say 6-10 months before a new election. whiel such ana arrengement would probably founder on the details, I can see some demand given the state politics is in today. unfortunately due to that state such an arrangement is a super longshot and would likely only last weeks. Parties do have to not be seen to be obstructive, parties looking to settle leadership need to avoid an election as do the parties short of money.

You may see something historical happen or at least try to happen.

The BQ as well is unusally incompatible due to the right-wing nationalism "intolerance"  component combined with the pipeline issue. This could press some of the other parties to do interesting things to avoid being blamed for a new election for December.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

I hope all Canadians realize this is what is coming. The Liberals will never ever work with the NDP!!!

I disagree as I explained above. These two parties are really well positioned to blame each other and blackmail each other over who would be blamed for a new election or the CPC coming to power if they have the means to stop that.

There is a great possibility that we could see some surprising combinations of caretaker government due to finances and political threats. Additionally if Trudeau stepped down the Liberals - if they had a majority with the NDP - would certainly try to change leaders with a stable arrangement. The NDP would go along while trying to fundraise. The price for each party may not be that high.

The NDP would demand a freeze on pipelines and some movement to PR - but that could be just a study or perhaps a  referendum. The Liberals could try to make a deal with the CPC to save the pipeline and if such a deal could not exist blame the CPC for making it impossible and postpone the pipeline during a brief term with the NDP while agreeing to allow noises about PR without a final committment. Due to finances and leadership both parties would compromise.

Same can be said for the CPC. The CPC could agree to a LPC government while they change leaders (then Trudeau might stay) in exchange for building a pipeline.

The reason a party might agree to work with the Liberals will be due to the ability the Liberals have to make the dal with the other party and make them wear it. The political threat here is big enough that the price on all sides could be quite low.

NorthReport

This:  The Impending Trudeau-Scheer Grand Coalition thread  is the best place to discuss what's coming down the pipes, because there is no question this is what is coming, and the NDP are going to be cut completely out of any of the decision-making process. It is only when the NDP gets a majority government will they have any say in Ottawa.

How many times did the Liberals vote with Harper when he had a minority government. Was it 100 times? Was it 200 times? The Liberals voted to support Harper so often we stopped counting. Those who don't remember history will find themselves destined to repeating it.

Please don't fall for the right-wing Liberal and Conservative lies.

Our political system, just like our economic system, is rigged against Canadian working people, students, seniors, the poor, the homeless,  tenants, caregivers, grocery store clerks, and visible minorites including Indigenous Peoples. We all know it, so let's do something about it, because we can.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

This:  The Impending Trudeau-Scheer Grand Coalition thread  is the best place to discuss what's coming down the pipes, because there is no question this is what is coming, and the NDP are going to be cut completely out of any of the decision-making process. It is only when the NDP gets a majority government will they have any say in Ottawa.

How many times did the Liberals vote with Harper when he had a minority government. Was it 100 times? Was it 200 times? The Liberals voted to support Harper so often we stopped counting. Those who don't remember history will find themselves destined to repeating it.

Please don't fall for the right-wing Liberal and Conservative lies.

Our political system, just like our economic system, is rigged against Canadian working people, students, seniors, the poor, the homeless,  tenants, caregivers, grocery store clerks, and visible minorites including Indigenous Peoples. We all know it, so let's do something about it, because we can.

You are making my point with your question. I disagree with the suggestion that the Liberals had any love for Harper or have any now.

You can see times when the Liberals made sure Harper was not defeated becuase they feared an election. It is not a grand coalition we should be concerned about but rather a party tolerant of a bad government becuase they lack the leader or finances to run a campaign. It does not take a coalition among the main parties to avoid an election.

Please let's not pretend that the NDP could not be in this situation as well as the Liberals.

The NDP has also declined to vote down a government it disagreed with becuase it was afraid of electoral losses.

We are stronger when we are less hypocritical.

NorthReport

You make good points Sean however the reality is we could have defeated the Harper government and the Liberals bailed, and saved the Harper government.

And the rest was history as they say!

Apart from Jack Layton not forming an NDP government, and then dying on us, it was my biggest Canadian federal political disappointment.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

You make good points Sean however the reality is we could have defeated the Harper government and the Liberals bailed, and saved the Harper government.

And the rest was history as they say!

Apart from Jack Layton not forming an NDP government, and then dying on us, it was my biggest Canadian federal political disappointment.

You are forgetting that while the NDP clammoured for an election that the Liberals prevented many times there were a couple times the NDP avoided did the same. I remember so many Liberals screaming at the NDP hypocrisy when the NDP had been slamming the Liberals for the same thing. I am not sure if I can find the dates. Both cases were about political support levels and not money.

ETA: I tried to find the date of this but googling would not work as there are so many references to when the Liberals bailed on the deal with the NDP and BQ and of course the many times the Liberals choose to prevent an election. I do know there were at least two votes in the Harper era where the NDP backed away becuase it was too low in the polls though. I think the BQ also one time declined but I do not remember the rationale. It was discussed here at length.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

North, this thread does tend to support the suspicions some people have had that you are a secret Conservative supporter.  You almost sound exultant about the possibility of a "grand coalition".  What is your objective in starting this thread and what choices do you want people to make in response to reading it?

Sean in Ottawa

I think North Report is an overly exuberent NDP supporter but at times I think he does harm in the enthusiasm.

I have been accused of being a Liberal for doing the opposite -- demanding that the NDP live to the same standards that we want others to. I have been angry with the NDP and even considered not supporting it but I always ended up supporting it (I have voted already this time). 

I do believe in having a balanced basis even if your advocacy follows.

 

NorthReport

Ken

Let's do each other a favour

I have made an effort to not read your comments for some time now, and I sincerely suggest to give yourself a break, do the same about mine.

Ken Burch wrote:

North, this thread does tend to support the suspicions some people have had that you are a secret Conservative supporter.  You almost sound exultant about the possibility of a "grand coalition".  What is your objective in starting this thread and what choices do you want people to make in response to reading it?

NorthReport

Majority, minority and coalition governments -- Karl Nerenberg looks ahead to Monday

 

 

This election is a nail biter. Will it be a minority government? Which party will have the most seats? What kinds of deals are going to be going down as the parties make their power plays to be the one who will lead our country. And, since it's looking like it won't be a majority government, which parties are positioning themselves to be king-makers?  There are many questions and there won't be an answer until Monday. And maybe not a clear answer until later than that. 

Things are changing so quickly that we're posting this podcast a bit early -- this conversation with rabble parliamentary reporter Karl Nerenberg was held on Tuesday, October 15. With the speed things are moving, this is one interview which shouldn't sit on the shelf. Because it might all change by tomorrow.

Image: Ishmael Daro/Flickr 

 

2019 FEDERAL ELECTION

Thank you for reading this story…

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http://www.rabble.ca/podcasts/shows/rabble-radio/2019/10/majority-minority-and-coalition-governments-karl-nerenberg-looks

NorthReport

This thread title ' The Impending Trudeau-Scheer Grand Coalition' is aptly named and a good forecast of what is about to happen on October 21. I am not going to quibble over technical definitions. For me coalition can be a formal process or an informal one.

On Monday nite we can expect to see the following results

Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives will get a majority.

Canada will continue to be governed by the Liberals, who will govern with support from the Conservatives, and possibly other parties.

This situation will not change for some time unless there is a significant change in public opinion.

Once again the NDP will be relegated to no-decision making power in Ottawa, but to be expected under such a rigged political voting system as we have in Canada. In other words, regardless of the 18 to 20% support the NDP will probably receive, NDPers will be screwed over once again.

So the question coming out of this election for NDPers is where do we go from here. 

Certainly in my riding, and all ridings across Canada, I hope that NDP election planning for the next election begins on October 22

NorthReport

Charlie nails it.

As long as Liberals are allowed to get away with calling themselves progressive, the right-wing Liberals and the right-wing Conservatives will continue to control Canada both politically and economically.

Jagmeet Singh won't support the Conservatives, but could Liberals prop up an Andrew Scheer minority government?

 

  • If the Governor General Julie Payette invites Andrew Scheer to form a government, the public shouldn't rule out the possibility of him looking to the Liberal benches to keep him in power.

2 of 4

  • If the Governor General Julie Payette invites Andrew Scheer to form a government, the public shouldn't rule out the possibility of him looking to the Liberal benches to keep him in power.ANDREW SCHEER

Unless the Liberals pull off a stunning rebound in the next few days, Canada may end up with a minority government.

To date, there's been a great deal of speculation over which party—the Conservatives or the Liberals—will receive the support of either the NDP, Greens, or Bloc Québécois.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has been unequivocal: he will not help Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer become prime minister. 

But as support for the Liberals and Conservatives has waned over the campaign, there's one other possibility that no one has suggested.

And that's whether the Conservatives and Liberals could end up in bed together in defiance of the other parties.

They have more in common than they often let on, including:

* both parties support the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion;

* both parties are comfortable with doctor-assisted-death legislation that falls far short of what the Supreme Court of Canada mandated;

* both parties support mandatory minimum sentences;

* both parties support a law that criminalizes the sale of sex;

* both parties are adamantly opposed to creating a safe supply to prevent illicit-drug overdoses;

* both parties support trade agreements that allow investors to sue governments;

* both parties support cash payments to parents rather than creating a national childcare program;

* both parties support appealing a Canadian Human Rights Tribunal decision that would give billions of dollars to Indigenous children and youth and their families;

* both parties support a complete ban on cannabis marketing, notwithstanding its negative impact on a billion-dollar Canadian industry;

* both parties oppose taxing wealthy people's assets;

* and both parties oppose a guaranteed basic income.

There are differences, such as over a carbon tax, gun control, public support for arts and culture, financial support for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, timelines for infrastructure spending, refugee policies, progressivity of the tax system, and the magnitude of government deficits.

But there are also many points upon which the Liberals and Conservatives agree. As the NDP pivots left under Singh and the Greens zero in on the climate crisis, the two traditional ruling parties have more reasons to work together in the future.

Journalists covering the election campaign rarely point this out.

If Liberals fare badly in the election, it could cost Justin Trudeau the leadership of his party.

If Liberals fare badly in the election, it could cost Justin Trudeau the leadership of his party.

ADAM SCOTTI/PMO

Trudeau irks right wingers

So why can't the two parties get along? Part of it is personality-based.

Conservative supporters often despise Justin Trudeau, whom they sometimes deride as "Sock Boy". They see him as a privileged kid who became prime minister on the popularity of his surname.

Many Conservatives also think that Liberals have no principles.

And Liberals look upon many Conservatives as being out of step on LGBT rights and failing to understand how Canada is enriched by its diversity.

It's a cultural divide.

But the ideological split wasn't nearly so great when Paul Martin led the Liberals. Nor would it be if Ralph Goodale or Marc Garneau were to become interim Liberal leader after an election.

So, could the Liberals support the Conservatives, or vice versa, in a minority Parliament?

All you have to do is look at the last minority Parliament.

From 2009 to 2011, the Liberals under Michael Ignatieff and with Goodale and Garneau in key caucus positions repeatedly propped up the Stephen Harper government.

There was no coalition, not even a confidence and supply agreement.

But Harper knew that Ignatieff wasn't going to collude with the NDP and the Bloc on a nonconfidence motion.

In 2011, the NDP campaign highlighted that Ignatieff "did not show up for two-thirds of the key confidence votes" in the previous year.

In this 2011 election ad, the NDP highlighted how Liberals kept Conservatives in power.

Leadership races take time

Today, it's hard to see the Liberals and the Conservatives helping one another out as long as Trudeau is leader.

But should he fare poorly in this election and the party ends up in a civil war over who should succeed him, all bets are off.

Under these circumstances, the Liberals could very well end up propping up a Conservative minority government until a new leader is chosen. And that could take at least a year or more.

The same is true if the knives come out in the Conservative party for Scheer, should he fare badly on October 21.

The Conservatives won't want to bring down a Liberal minority government until their new leader is in place. 

Keep in mind that it took two years for the NDP to elect its new leader after the 2015 election debacle under Tom Mulcair.

Christy Clark had the support of federal Liberals and Kevin Falcon had the support of federal Conservatives when they competed for the leadership of the B.C. Liberals in 2011.

Christy Clark had the support of federal Liberals and Kevin Falcon had the support of federal Conservatives when they competed for the leadership of the B.C. Liberals in 2011.

STEPHEN HUI

B.C. shows how it can be done

It's not as if federal Conservatives and federal Liberals haven't worked well together in the past.

In B.C., federal Conservatives and federal Liberals have maintained a partnership for 25 years under the umbrella of the B.C. Liberal Party.

Many B.C. Liberals are supporting the Trudeau government.

One former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, Joyce Murray, is a member of the Trudeau cabinet. Another former B.C. Liberal cabinet minister, Terry Lake, is a federal Liberal candidate.

Other B.C. Liberals, like former finance minister Kevin Falcon, are publicly backing the Conservatives. Another former B.C. Liberal MLA, Marc Dalton, is a Conservative candidate.

If Murray and Falcon could reach agreement at the B.C. cabinet table and if Lake and Dalton could forge consensus in the B.C. Liberal caucus, why couldn't the same thing happen federally?

Of course, it could.

But suggesting that the Conservatives and Liberals are not really that different from one another goes against the grain of political discourse in this country.

That's why you won't hear it raised on all those political panels that are popping up on radio and television.

https://www.straight.com/news/1314311/jagmeet-singh-wont-support-conservatives-could-liberals-prop-andrew-scheer-minority

NorthReport

This thread title is looking more and more prophetic as we approach the last 5 days of the campaign.

2 right-wing parties, both with unpopular leaders, trying desperately to fend off each other, while the one progressive party, the Jagmeet Singh-led  NDP,  with its popular Leader, has the momentum, and is rising on the Left.

NorthReport

Even if Too Close To Call's forecast of a combined Lib-NDP 176 seats (170 required for majority), the right-wing Liberals will continue to govern supported by the right-wing Conservatives, and the NDP will be completely cut out of the decision-making process. You can take prediction to the bank.

Now bear in mind that TCTC's forecast of 42 seats for the NDP is based on 18.5% support for the NDP. The last 10 polls gave the NDP 18.9% support, and the 5 most recent polls gave the NDP 19.5% support. 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Even if Too Close To Call's forecast of a combined Lib-NDP 176 seats (170 required for majority), the right-wing Liberals will continue to govern supported by the right-wing Conservatives, and the NDP will be completely cut out of the decision-making process. You can take prediction to the bank.

This reminds me of your prediction after the last BC election that the BC Greens would only cooperate with the BC Liberals and that the BC Greens would never cooperate with the BCNDP. You also stated that since there was no chance of a BC NDP government, John Horgan should resign for losing the election!!

 Luckily "the bank" didn't accept that prediction!!

NorthReport

Right and the Liberals did not vote 100s of times to keep Harper in power!

A blatant denial of recent Canadian history.

This election right-wing Liberals and Conservatives not fooling quite so many Canadians this time. 

As far as B.C. is concerned no one could have forecast the stupidity of Christy Clark’s negotiating tactics when the election results came in

Some people have the courage to put their forecasts out there. Some others just sit around and take pot shots at them.

 

 

JKR

I don't think it takes any courage to make a prediction. All it takes is glancing at the similar predictions being made by the professional pollsters and taking credit for their work here on Babble. What takes courage or just spin doctoring  I suppose is to look at their predictions and bolster the numbers of your personal preference.

NorthReport

Oops!

Those who ignore history will find it often gets repeated

https://mobile.twitter.com/bradlavigne/status/1184463590704717824

brookmere

NorthReport wrote:

Even if Too Close To Call's forecast of a combined Lib-NDP 176 seats (170 required for majority), the right-wing Liberals will continue to govern supported by the right-wing Conservatives, and the NDP will be completely cut out of the decision-making process. You can take prediction to the bank.

Scheer has made it abundantly clear that if the Cons win the most seats he will consider that a victory and himself the rightful PM. There is no way on earth the Cons are going to prop up 2nd place Liberals as government. It would mean not only the end of Scheer as leader (and thus potential PM) but voter defections to Parti Max.

Nor do I think it likely that 2nd place Cons would vote with the Liberals on any contentious issue - except where it serves their own base, i.e. the oil industry. Again, listen to Scheer. He is warning about a  Liberal-NDP "coalition" that would raise taxes, etc. He wants to portray the Liberals and NDP as two sides of the same coin.

You are welcome to consider the Cons and Liberals to be the same but the parties themselves and the people who vote for them don't share this view.

NorthReport

In the real world, instead of some make believe world, on Monday nite, the voter's input into anything ends. 

What has changed amongst the Liberals and Conservatives not to support each other again, just like they did hundreds of times when Harper was in power? Basically not much difference. You can support a party in different ways. You can abstain, you can be sick, and you can vote for their legislation, etc. But we are getting ahead of ourselves, as we do not yet know the election results. Probably the only thing different this time is that Trudeau will be like Harper when he had his minority government, and Trudeau will be supported by the Conservatives, just the way the Liberals supported the Harper Conservatives.

NorthReport

Throwing around the word 'Professional'  just sounds divisive and another word to keep the poor, poor and the rich, rich.

 

NorthReport

Given the very recent history of Liberals propping up a minority Conservative govts it's very weird that Trudeau not ruling out allowing a PM Scheer isn't getting more play. Jagmeet Singh's the only one being clear about preventing a Conservative-led govt.

https://twitter.com/derrickokeefe/status/1185336366638362624

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

Given the very recent history of Liberals propping up a minority Conservative govts it's very weird that Trudeau not ruling out allowing a PM Scheer isn't getting more play. Jagmeet Singh's the only one being clear about preventing a Conservative-led govt.

https://twitter.com/derrickokeefe/status/1185336366638362624

North Report. Beating. Dead Horse.

NorthReport

What’s appears to be dead is the Liberal majority 

Maybe Canadians are just waking up to the fact the Liberals aren’t in it for them, eh!

 

jerrym

brookmere wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Even if Too Close To Call's forecast of a combined Lib-NDP 176 seats (170 required for majority), the right-wing Liberals will continue to govern supported by the right-wing Conservatives, and the NDP will be completely cut out of the decision-making process. You can take prediction to the bank.

Scheer has made it abundantly clear that if the Cons win the most seats he will consider that a victory and himself the rightful PM. There is no way on earth the Cons are going to prop up 2nd place Liberals as government. It would mean not only the end of Scheer as leader (and thus potential PM) but voter defections to Parti Max.

Scheer, as a former Speaker, knows this is false. If no government wins a majority of seats, the government, which is Liberal, gets first shot at demonstrating it can form a functioning government. If the Liberals can demonstrate they have enough support from other parties to function as a government, it can remain in office. 

 

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May said Thursday it is "astonishing" that party leaders "don't seem to understand our system."

She said Scheer is knowingly "misleading" Canadians about the country's parliamentary traditions.

"The convention is quite the opposite of what Mr. Scheer is telling people. I'm not advocating it. I'm explaining what the rules are. The convention is the party that held power before the election has first crack at seeing if they can hold the confidence of the House ... Mr. Trudeau, gets first crack at it," she said. "We elect 338 MPs and they have a right to decide who should form government at the end of an election."

In Canada's system of Westminster parliamentary democracy, the prime minister and the cabinet must answer to the House of Commons and they must enjoy the support and the confidence of a majority of the members of the chamber to remain in office.

Need support of the House

The sitting prime minister is given the first chance to test the confidence of the Commons after an election — even if that PM's party does not command a majority of seats.

For example, recent elections in B.C. and New Brunswick produced very close results, with the two main parties all but tied for first place in the seat count. The sitting premiers tested the confidence of the provincial chambers to see if they could secure enough votes to pass a throne speech.

In both cases, the government failed to win the required support from provincial legislators and was defeated by a vote of non-confidence.

According to convention, in such a scenario the premier must either resign or call for the dissolution of the chamber to allow for a new election. The same is true for a prime minister at the federal level. ...

In B.C., the Green Party agreed to support the governing NDP. In New Brunswick, the Progressive Conservative party has relied on support from the People's Alliance.

http://rabble.ca/babble/activism/student-led-global-climate-change-prote...

 

With public opinion polls suggesting Canada is heading towards a minority government, the Liberals will have the first crack at maintaining power if they can gain the confidence of the House of Commons, even if the Conservatives win more seats, but fail to gain a majority.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/10/14/liberals-can-stay-in-power-even-if-...

 

brookmere

jerrym wrote:

brookmere wrote:
Scheer has made it abundantly clear that if the Cons win the most seats he will consider that a victory and himself the rightful PM.
Scheer, as a former Speaker, knows this is false.

Of course he knows this is false. It's part of his strategy to portray an NDP-supported continuation of the Liberal government as some sort of coup. Again, that's why you are not going to see the Cons prop up a minority Liberal government, as someone else thinks will happen.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Right and the Liberals did not vote 100s of times to keep Harper in power!

A blatant denial of recent Canadian history.

This election right-wing Liberals and Conservatives not fooling quite so many Canadians this time. 

As far as B.C. is concerned no one could have forecast the stupidity of Christy Clark’s negotiating tactics when the election results came in

Some people have the courage to put their forecasts out there. Some others just sit around and take pot shots at them.

 

 

This is misleading. We need to hold ourselves to a higher standard. The Liberals did not vote to support the Harper government out of any real kinship as is clearly being presented here:

At times they did vote with them becuase on some issues there are only two positions and they agreed with them. There is nothing wrong with this. How many times does the NDP vote with other parties they have little in common with - like the Liberals? There may be many positions but the ways to respond to a government vote are yes, no or abstain or not vote.  Governments trap opposition to divide them. this has happened to the NDP. and you can vote with a party on a single issue and still be very different. Just like the NDP does. I disagree with Liberal positions and am furious with positions they have taken that show principles I cannot stand but that does not mean they are more inclined to work with the CPC than the NDP if a government with the  NDP is possible.

Secondly, the Liberals many times declined to take down the Liberals in order to preserve their hides knowing a new election would be a disaster. Sure we can criticize them for this but it should not be presented to suggest the parties are the same in a suggestion they would want to work together.

Franklly, this is especially damaging to the NDP. The NDP is going to face some tough times over the next couple years: the party will likely have a good result and want to keep it. The party is in terrible shape financially and needs Singh to turn his talents to bringing in some money to prepare the party for the next election. The NDP may seek to avoid an election as a tactic to improve the left's longer term position by avoiding an election that would be damaging (devastating?) over a short term.

I am very much the opposite of pro Liberal - putting it politely. But pretending that the tactics parties use are proof of  support is problematic when the NDP could be the most vulnerable party after this election.

The two biggest parties are hurting in this election with the lowest total vote they may have had - ever. Both also have the most money and the greatest ability to fundraise. They both could be happy to have an election before the other parties are ready. Promoting the idea that the lack of support for an election is a sign of ongoing inclination to support all the parties of another party is dangerous.

The best news for the NDP is if the election gives the party the balance of power AND one of the two big parties loses a leader. If the result is so close both hang on to their leaders for a do-over the NDP is seriously in financial trouble. Please bear that in mind when discussing what are tactics as much as support. If Scheer wins by a hair and Trudeau stays I could see the NDP really work hard not to cause an election for a year while trying not to show support in a situation where the BQ decides to unite with the Liberals and the NDP to bring Scheer down. Don't think this cannot happen becuase it has already.

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