Jagmeet Singh, NDP Leader

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Pondering
Jagmeet Singh, NDP Leader

I am surprised no one started a more general thread yet so here it is.

Pondering

I have heard comments both here and in the media that Jagmeet Singh will do poorly in Quebec. It's quite possible that he will do poorly here but I wouldn't bet on it. Quebecers are not single issue voters and we are notoriously unpredictable.

http://nationalpost.com/news/politics/as-quebec-separatists-watch-canada...

Jagmeet Singh, the freshly-elected New Democrat leader, said in Ottawa Monday he thinks Spain’s denial of Catalan self-determination rights is completely unacceptable. In comments made in French, Singh also criticized Trudeau’s government for not speaking up more about what happened.

This may not be meaningful across the Canada but it is meaningful in Quebec.

The leader of the federal Bloc Québécois, Martine Ouellet, is in Barcelona and has offered a steady stream of video updates on her Facebook page describing updates to the situation.....

Provincial Parti Québécois leader Jean-François Lisée called Sunday a black day for Europe and for democracy. On social media, he said Spain’s government should be denounced and noted German Chancellor Angela Merkel had called the Spanish leader upon reports of violence. “Et Trudeau?” he tweeted.

Quebec premier Philippe Couillard was quick to react Sunday. Quebec condemns all forms of violence, he said in a tweet.

It didn't hurt Trudeau in Quebec that he is anti-nationalist and a staunch federalist. Jagmeet Singh's position on this won't result in a basketful of votes dropping in his lap, but it will get attention and respect. I don't know whether or not he will be a good leader or if I will agree with all of his policies. I already know I don't agree with him on PR but I do agree with him on decriminalizing all use of prohibited drugs. My opinion could change but I think he has excellent political instincts. He knows when to speak up quickly and emphatically.

I think he made a great choice in Guy Caron as parliamentary leader. I think it is smart to focus on rebuilding the party rather than running for a seat and hanging out in parliament. The importance of appearing in person to NDP members and supporters cannot be overestimated. He will meet with and hear from local NDP leadership. Social media and data management are critical but a strong ground game is at least as important in preparing for 2019. I think again of the 2015 election and what voters paid attention to. They didn't evaluate the previous 4 years. They were ready to elect Harper again, then Mulcair, then Trudeau. So, the wisest think for Jagmeet to do is to build up a strong team and platform with which to fight the election in 2019. That fact that Trudeau also took that approach shouldn't prevent Singh from doing the same if it is the best strategy for increasing support.

NorthReport

http://rabble.ca/news/2017/11/was-quick-—-medias-brief-love-affair-jagmeet-singh

R.E.Wood

It's a flawed article, but it's worth chucking in as part of this thread on Singh's leadership (which I am not impressed by so far):

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/jagmeet-singh-and-the-shunning-of...

Aristotleded24

As David Doel recently pointed out, Singh's dropping the ball on the Paradise Papers issue allowed the Conservatives to take the lead.

R.E.Wood

What on Earth does this quote from Singh have to do with the election losses?

On the morning after his party endured a quadruple byelection beating, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh had this to offer on Twitter: “Each and every one of us has an inherent self worth. Nurture and grow it. Give it time and love. Build a courageous belief in your own self worth and you will have the strength to overcome any challenge you face.”

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/12/12/liberals-byelection-wins-...

I think Hebert is correct in her analysis, and unless something changes drastically the NDP is going to be facing major losses in the next election. 

The only saving grace for the NDP on Monday was that Singh took a pass on trying to enter the House of Commons via one of the ridings in play, thus avoiding an even more personal defeat. 

The downside is that if he wanted to reverse his initial decision to stay out of the House until the 2019 election — possibly because his absence from the parliamentary stage has made him virtually invisible on the national radar — he could be hard-pressed to find a reasonably safe place to run.

It is increasingly fair to ask just how many safe New-Democrats seats there are left in the country.

None of the federal ridings in contention this fall was a promising one for the NDP. But Scarborough-Agincourt should have been within the sphere of influence of its rookie leader.

Scarborough is Singh’s birthplace, and his former provincial seat was in the GTA. As recently as 2011 the NDP won a riding whose territory is now part of Scarborough-Agincourt with 40 per cent of the vote.

Six years and two leaders later there is barely a trace left of the party’s former strength.

On Monday, the New Democrats barely took 5 per cent of the vote in Scarborough-Agincourt, Newfoundland and Labrador’s Bonavista-Burin-Trinity and B.C.’s South Surrey–White Rock.

In Saskatchewan’s Battlefords-Lloydminster, the party finished second, with 13 per cent of the vote. In all cases, the NDP’s share of the vote went down from 2015.

Stacked against the party’s performance in the same ridings at the time of Jack Layton’s last election campaign, the picture is even more dismal. Indeed, the end-of-year polls show the federal NDP deep in third-party territory across the board.

As the Singh-led New Democrats fail to register, the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer are losing long-held seats to the Liberals. The two are not unrelated. ... 

In the end the only seeds of buyer’s remorse that may have been planted in the mid-mandate byelections would pertain to the opposition’s leadership choices.

Aristotleded24

R.E.Wood wrote:
I think Hebert is correct in her analysis, and unless something changes drastically the NDP is going to be facing major losses in the next election.

Something else that hasn't got attention is that by resigning is seat as an MPP in Ontario  he has put in danger the work that the Ontario NDP has done towards making a breakthrough in the 905 area. That risk was inherent no matter what, however there doesn't even seem to be a pay-off for it federally. Of course the provincial Liberals will be looking to retake the area. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts or anyone else's on this matter.

In terms of what Hebert said regarding buyers remorse among the Opposition party leaders, remember that at this point last year neither the Conservatives nor the NDP knew who would lead them into the next federal election, so the Liberals have had a huge organizational advantage. If these trends continue, then it will be time to be worried. Having said that, we have seen numerous cases where the media annoints one particular candidate as a star only for that star to burn out once in public office. Yet, why to party members keep falling for this trick again and again and let the media lead them around rather than thinking independently and making up their own minds? You want to win? Figure out what your party believes in and elect someone who, under pressure and constant badgering, will snap and say, "you've asked what I believe, I've answered your question and given reasons, how people respond to that is up to them."

Rev Pesky

One of the things you'd want in a leader is someone who would campaign for the party's candidates, even in byelections. 

josh

I think Hebert is correct in her analysis, and unless something changes drastically the NDP is going to be facing major losses in the next election. 

Could be back in the teens in terms of seats.

Pondering

Pundits have to write something. Singh became leader just a couple of months ago. I think it is way too soon to be holding him personally responsible for the party's position. The NDP seems to be doing what the Liberals were criticized for when they elected Trudeau. Expecting a new leader to solve the party's political fortunes overnight. In the case of the Liberals it worked at first because of Trudeau's name but even against Harper and Mulcair Trudeau's popularity had taken a dive until the actual election period. Look where he is now.

The NDP is down for a multitude of reasons and Singh may not be able to pull the NDP out of it's slump in time for the next election but he isn't the main problem. It's that the NDP spent years trying to convince the public they are Liberal Lite so could be trusted to run the country. Now that the Liberals are back there is no reason to vote NDP so the NDP is back to its core base. Attacking the Liberals hoping to bring them down again won't work because the reason they were down had nothing to do with the NDP or even the Conservatives. The reason the NDP was up had nothing to do with the NDP. People were voting for the NDP Liberals not the NDP. It had nothing to do with ideology.

If I ask people here why vote NDP the answer will be all about how awful the Liberals and Conservatives are and how the NDP won't be corrupt or pander to business. More specifically last election it was that the NDP would bring in national daycare while delivering a balanced budget every year even though the Conservatives didn't deliver a balanced budget for 10 years. In other words the NDP were either lying or incompetent because those two "promises" could not be delivered and people knew it.

I don't know if Jagmeet Singh can rescue the NDP but it isn't his fault that the NDP needs rescuing. Of the leadership contenders I don't think any of them would be more successful than Singh. The NDP doesn't necessarily need to present the Leap but it does need to present a different moderate and realistic vision of Canada's future to advance.

R.E.Wood

Singh launched NDP byelection campaign in wrong Scarborough riding

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/singh-scarborough-agincourt-byelection-l...

Rev Pesky

Re: Wrong Scarborough riding.

I commented on this in the Jagmeet Singh thread, so I won't go to much into it here, but...

Doesn't anyone in the party know where the riding boundaries are? One is tempted to say this is maybe good because they've finally struck bottom, but this level of stupid indicates there may be depths they haven't yet plumbed.

And they're complaining they got outspent! Perhaps it's just as well he isn't in parliament, because if he was he'd have to show up to a caucus meeting and explain to the assembled MP's why he doesn't know what the riding boundaries are in an area in which he was born and raised.

 

Mighty Middle

Rev Pesky wrote:

And they're complaining they got outspent! Perhaps it's just as well he isn't in parliament, because if he was he'd have to show up to a caucus meeting and explain to the assembled MP's why he doesn't know what the riding boundaries are in an area in which he was born and raised.

He wasn't raised in Scarborough, he was born in Scarborough. He was raised in Newfoundland and Windsor.

Rev Pesky

From Mighty Middle:

He wasn't raised in Scarborough, he was born in Scarborough. He was raised in Newfoundland and Windsor.

You are correct, and I'm wrong. Singh did say that his visit to Scarborough was 'coming home', I suppose to try and endear himself to local voters.

R.E.Wood

Oh, the spin...

Jagmeet Singh Says He Didn't Launch NDP's Scarborough-Agincourt Byelection Campaign In Wrong Riding

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/12/13/jagmeet-singh-kicked-off-ndps-sc...