Jagmeet Singh's NDP move past Liberals and are in 2nd place behind the Cons in Federal Polling in Ontario

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NorthReport
Jagmeet Singh's NDP move past Liberals and are in 2nd place behind the Cons in Federal Polling in Ontario

Cons - 38%, No Change

Libs - 33%

NDP - 21%

Liberal approval rating drops to 44% as women, middle class look to Tories: Ipsos poll​

https://globalnews.ca/news/4104673/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-down...

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Jagmeet Singh's NDP?

WRONG.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

dp.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

North Report you forgot to post this about Ontario (which is what the title of your thread is)

The Conservatives enjoy a huge lead in the country’s most popular province, Ontario, where they enjoy 42 per cent of the decided vote. The NDP are second with 27 per cent, and the Liberals third just one point behind at 26 per cent.

So while the NDP has moved ahead the Liberals in Ontario by one point, the NDP are indeed 2nd. But it is also considered a statisical tie, when only 1 point separates them.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

“[The Liberals] seem to be losing middle class supporters to the Conservatives, and they seem to be losing that millennial group of the population to the NDP,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Affairs. “So progressive voters are splitting again. And when progressive voters split, that’s when conservatives win.

Good if you're a fucking Conservative. (slow applause)

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

women (35%) (30%)

55+ (47%) (30%) 35-54

9 point lead over

Ontario (42%) 26%)

Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba "dead zone" for

NorthReport

Federal polling  

Cons - 38%

Libs - 33%

NDP 21%

Mighty Middle wrote:

North Report you forgot to post this about Ontario (which is what the title of your thread is)

The Conservatives enjoy a huge lead in the country’s most popular province, Ontario, where they enjoy 42 per cent of the decided vote. The NDP are second with 27 per cent, and the Liberals third just one point behind at 26 per cent.

So while the NDP has moved ahead the Liberals in Ontario by one point, the NDP are indeed 2nd. But it is also considered a statisical tie, when only 1 point separates them.

Cody87

I wonder how much of this is influenced by Ontario provincial politics. I don't doubt the veracity of the data, though, as I've predicted before that Trudeau is going to get sandwiched in the culture war by Scheer and Singh which is supported by the middle class going to the Conservatives and millenials going to the NDP.

josh

Always love it when poll numbers are cherry picked.

NorthReport

- from the article above

The Liberals’ loss has to some extent been the NDP’s gain, with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s woes over alleged ties to Sikh separatists not preventing his party from enjoying a 2 per cent bump.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4104673/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-down...

NorthReport

Nice to see the NDP rise in the polls from a credible pollster, instead of the many Liberal supporting pollsters' nonsense, which of course skews the data coming from the CBC aggregate as well. Liberals hate credible pollsters!

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Totally lost to so called 'progressives' here.

A Conservative government in Ontario

A Conservative government in Quebec

A Conservative government in Canada

A Conservtive government in the US

This is a NIGHTMARE scenario and I see nothing to celebrate. Especially when the big celebration is that the NDP are up a couple points. Whoopie!

They are as far back of the Liberals as the Liberals are to the Conservatives. Break out the champagne!

It amazes me that some here woould rather a radical social conservative government over a middle of the road government heading us forward in a progressive way.

I think I'm done here at babble. I may as well spend my time in the Sun News commet section or 4Chan or Brietbart or the Tea Party Forum.

This place has become a joke. But hardly one that is funny.

The hyper-partisanship ad Conservative cheerleading here is just too much for me to deal with. I find more moderate people on the National Post comment boards.

Enjoy yourselves. I'm over and out. Ciao.  

SocialJustice101

NorthReport, 2% is within the margin of error, and would not be considered a bump by a statistician.   Only ignorant reporters like to dwell on those 2-3% swings.

josh

NorthReport wrote:

Nice to see the NDP rise in the polls from a credible pollster, instead of the many Liberal supporting pollsters' nonsense, which of course skews the data coming from the CBC aggregate as well. Liberals hate credible pollsters!

This crap again?  Figure you would have learned from 2015.

Basement Dweller

They tried to make a big deal about this, but it isn't an issue the average voter cares about. I thought "is that all they got?"

NorthReport wrote:

- from the article above

The Liberals’ loss has to some extent been the NDP’s gain, with NDP leader Jagmeet Singh’s woes over alleged ties to Sikh separatists not preventing his party from enjoying a 2 per cent bump.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4104673/trudeau-liberals-approval-rating-down...

NorthReport

Babble's resident Liberals are very unhappy this morning, but with Singh's NDP now second place in Ontario - looks good to me!

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Babble's resident Liberals are very unhappy this morning, but with Singh's NDP now second place in Ontario - looks good to me!

Don't dismiss Alan's point. It is valid.

I am not sympathetic to the Liberal party but I am concerned about the scenario he raises.

I dislike any sugggestion that there is any responsibility for the NDP voters to select Liberals. I also blame the Liberals for the broken promise on electoral reform. However, it would be wrong not to recognize the issue. The NDP if they are going to take a greater share must do a good enough job that they can at least lift their side enough to make a difference with it.

That said, Alan, do not panic. This is in the context of an Ontario election with a very unpopular Liberal government. See where things are in September. Most people here would love to see the NDP manage to defy expecations and win in Ontario. Nobody wants Ford to win but the NDP is not to blame for the situation the Liberals face federally or provincially, in fact they have had a poor share of the people running away from the Liberals recently. You should celebrate that the NDP is getting a share of them and not the Conservatives taking it all.

 

josh

Probably the one thing that would cinch Trudeau's second term as PM is Premier Doug Ford.

Sean in Ottawa

josh wrote:

Probably the one thing that would cinch Trudeau's second term as PM is Premier Doug Ford.

Possibly. But Ford is a cult of personality -- like Trump in that regard. People choose their news so even if he wins and is a disaster will his supporters even know that? Or care? What if they want, truly want, what he is about to rain down on Ontario if he gets the chance?

But a definite maybe.

Mighty Middle Mighty Middle's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Babble's resident Liberals are very unhappy this morning, but with Singh's NDP now second place in Ontario - looks good to me!

Being 1 point ahead in Ontario a statistical tie, as there is the margin of error.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

 

That said, Alan, do not panic. This is in the context of an Ontario election with a very unpopular Liberal government. See where things are in September. Most people here would love to see the NDP manage to defy expecations and win in Ontario. Nobody wants Ford to win but the NDP is not to blame for the situation the Liberals face federally or provincially, in fact they have had a poor share of the people running away from the Liberals recently. You should celebrate that the NDP is getting a share of them and not the Conservatives taking it all.

 

I'm trying not to panic,Sean but I wish people would chew on the idea of a completely Conservative North America for a while. I can't think of anything worse. We're not talking about middle of the road,we're talking a real danger of becoming Fascist. That's not hyperbole. The damage that would be done in that situation is unmeasurable. It's a literal nightmare everyday for atleast 4 years. At least.

I'm not telling people to vote Liberal,I'm saying that celebrating this potential scenario all because the NDP is up 2% (within the margin of error at that) is lunacy.

NR is possibly the most partisan of any partisan in this forum. He actually is excited because the NDP is 2% up on the Liberals. And that helps the progressive cause in which way again?

Call me a Liberal,I don't care  but as I have mentioned I'd rather a middle of the road government that inches forward like a snail than a social conservative disaster.

When the NDP is within 2% of the Conservatives I'd get excited. There'd be a chance of the NDP making up the government. Right now they are NOWHERE near victory. Unless you consider the NDP being 2% (within the margin of error) ahead of the Liberals.

I personally get tired of these futile hyper-partisan threads. 99% of them opened by NR.

In his mind a Conservative (social and hawkish at that) continent is worth it as long as the NDP is 2% ahead of the Liberals. Quelle Victory!

It's the worst of the worst case scenarios we're staring down. How can I not panic and how can I not get angry?

Anyway...I should calm down since this is (a) an Ontario poll and (b) the federal election is more than a year away.

But I am tired of these threads. And the vast majoority of threads are opened by NR. How can I continue to come here if I have to ignore all the threads in this Forum?

I strongly believe it's these kinds of threads that chase progressives away from here.

NorthReport
SocialJustice101

Today's Nanos update:

Lib:38.14%
CPC:34.68%
NDP:16.83%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/data

Debater

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Today's Nanos update:

Lib:38.14%
CPC:34.68%
NDP:16.83%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/data

The Nanos numbers are definitely more positive for the Liberals.

It will be interesting to see which pollster is more accurate.

Ipsos has a history of underestimating Liberal support, as we have seen in the past.

NorthReport

Actually Ipsos Reid and Angus Reid historically, have  been the most accurate pollsters in Canada for a long, long time now.

Debater

Ipsos has a history of inflating Conservative support, going right back to the 2000 Election in which their final poll predicted the Chretien Liberals would only win a Minority.

NorthReport

Often it is just Liberal sour grapes.

Many Canadian pollsters have Liberal connections which always skew the cough, cough, unbiased CBC aggregate results!

NorthReport

What a lot of Liberal nonsense!

Ipsos Reid is the Ontario Liberal government pollster so most people would doubt they are biased against the Liberals.  

Debater wrote:

Ipsos has a history of inflating Conservative support, going right back to the 2000 Election in which their final poll predicted the Chretien Liberals would only win a Minority.

SocialJustice101

IPSOS used to be a live telephone polling company.  But now they've switched to much cheaper on-line polling which uses highly subjective "weighting" of on-line surveys to derive their results.     Have you seen the right-wing presence online?   It's highly disproportionate.   Hopefully, the younger and more educated progressive voters have something better to do with their lives than to do pointless on-line surveys. ;-)

As for Nanos, they were THE most accurate pollster in the 2015 election, and they still use live calls, the ONLY pollster to do so between elections.

SocialJustice101

Debater wrote:

SocialJustice101 wrote:

Today's Nanos update:

Lib:38.14%

CPC:34.68%

NDP:16.83%


http://www.nanosresearch.com/data

The Nanos numbers are definitely more positive for the Liberals.

It will be interesting to see which pollster is more accurate.

Ipsos has a history of underestimating Liberal support, as we have seen in the past.

I predict that IPSOS will "magically" have almost the same results as Nanos in the last pre-election poll.

NorthReport

Liberals don't like pollsters, nor media, who aren't affiliated in some way with the Liberals. Who knew!

38%-31%-23%

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_43rd_Canadian_feder...

SocialJustice101

Do you like pollsters and the media, North Report?    So 1 on-line pollster put the NDP at 23%.  Even if you believe them, that's not exactly an NDP majority government.

NorthReport

Wow! Liberals are much more threatened by Jagmeet Singh, the NDP's new leader, than I realized!

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

Wow! Liberals are much more threatened by Jagmeet Singh, the NDP's new leader, than I realized!

It's truly amazing how they're consumed with hatred because of their petty partisan politics! It seems like they've lost the ability to think straight!

SocialJustice101

All hail Prime Minister Jagmeet Singh! :-)

Sean in Ottawa

I thought silly season was the summer. This is quite the reaction given the clear situation in Ontario right now. If Horwath manages to best the Liberals in this election, which is possible, then there could be some real knock-on effects. I am not sure how that will go.

I will post this here as people looking at the federal scene need need to understand the fragile and difficult situation facing the Liberals in this province and the risks the Liberal gamble poses to the NDP here.

There is an interesting dynamic in Ontario that could affect the Federal positions here. The Ontario Liberals are trying to repeat Trudeau by going to the left of the NDP. The NDP can either ignore this and possibly be seen to be in the same position Mulcair's NDP was or another situation could develop. The Liberals are looking to propose extensive deficits in Ontario with spending more typical of the NDP. It may be that the NDP, if it tries to remain to the left of the Liberals in terms of spending initiatives, could find the centre handed to Ford and severely damaged in the process. It may be that the Liberal gambit in Ontario is to try to take the NDP down with them in the hope that if both are as badly defeated as Wynne likely will be, the Liberals can come back more easily. Horwath's difficult job in this is to make sure that she does not go down with the Liberals. This explains why the Liberals are suddenly converting in a losing campaign to spending they have never previously considered. This is especially difficult for the NDP as they risk being caught between being accused of allowing the Liberals to go around them like Mulcair or being blown away by the electorate that may see the Liberal spending as desperate and unrealistic. The NDP has to either dial it back or make it realistic -- the Libeals have no intention to make their program realistic as this is a race with the NDP and not the Conservatives for them.

The NDP could say they will do the best of the programs better and acknowledge that the Liberals are trying to out-do the NDP desperately. While 2015 might have been too far to the right for Mulcair, the NDP in Ontario face more risk by trying to outdo the Liberals on the left. The provincial NDP have some good initiatives now and will have to respond to the Liberal initiatives either accepting to do them or restructure them to avoid having the Liberals outflank them on the way to defeat.

This is a tricky situation. The Liberals outflanked the NDP on the way to victory in 2015. But this is an election where they would be outflanking them to defeat and the NDP should not try to one-up that. The NDP may be best with their targetted but hugely significant proposals they are identifying, with a real means to pay for them, and restructuring Liberal policies and taxes to make sure the deficits are a bit more modest.

The most difficult job for the NDP here will be to take Liberal desperate proposals and show how some of them can work. This will require the NDP to look at taxes and engage in what is in effect a class war. They will get heavy fire from the right for tax increases to pay for  these things but if they do not go there, the NDP will face accusations of a Mulcair run to the right. Personally I would rather see the NDP engage in an honest conversation about taxation, inequality and take that on directly. If they do it they will call the Liberal bluff and it will be the Liberals caught between the Conservatives and the NDP instead of the other way round.

I say all this here becuase this is also a Federal issue that we can relate to and becuase the poll uptick in Ontario is meaningless with a good decision on tactics now.

Sean in Ottawa

BTW I called the Ontario NDP -- looks like the party is screwed.

First they have an IVR that refers to the organzation as a company. Even if it cost a bit in customizing the IVR that is plain stupid.

More stupid is that they are doing the same thing the federal NDP did before the last election -- you ahve to know who you are calling for to get past the IVR. You get general ignore mailbox if you cannot spell a specific name.

If you want votes you have to staff up your office to take calls from the people interested enough to call you.

The NDP does not do this and instead blocks contact and will try to make up for that with advertising and door knocking shortly to make up for the deficit.

You want to win? ANSWER THE DAMN PHONE.

Yes it is that basic. You need to show that you do want to speak to people.

By the way even the Ontario Green Party is answering its phones and I think they have less money than the NDP.

If there is ANYONE paying attention at the NDP offices -- makes some calls or this campaign is already over.

Sean in Ottawa

And by the way the leader's office is answered by asking if you want to leave a message and then is incapable of taking a message -- comes on right away and says we did not get your message.

This close to the election this is a party struggling for party status not one in the running for power.

Sean in Ottawa

Ok - I just tried again. I did get a live person now. He says he will look into the issue of the company wording and the lack of call management for anyone who did not know a person to direct the call to. Let us hope that they resolve this.

The rest of the conversation was encouraging.

SocialJustice101

I remember calling CRA after the Harper cuts.  They put you on hold for 30 min, then you get an automated message informing you about higher than normal volume of calls and asking you to call again later.   Then the machine hangs up.

Sean in Ottawa

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I remember calling CRA after the Harper cuts.  They put you on hold for 30 min, then you get an automated message informing you about higher than normal volume of calls and asking you to call again later.   Then the machine hangs up.

I would not compare the two becuase the government site is a service to the public while the very life of a political campaign is talking to you. The NDP needs to take as many calls as they can over the next 10 weeks.

cco

SocialJustice101 wrote:

I remember calling CRA after the Harper cuts.  They put you on hold for 30 min, then you get an automated message informing you about higher than normal volume of calls and asking you to call again later.   Then the machine hangs up.

Be grateful you're not an immigrant. CIC (now IRCC) has been telling me they're having higher than normal call volumes and can't even put me on hold for about 15 years. I'm guessing the non-moving average was set in 1947 when the department had a single telephone and hasn't been updated since.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

​(Self-delete.  Realized I'd misinterpreted the post I was responding to).

Sean in Ottawa

cco wrote:
SocialJustice101 wrote:

I remember calling CRA after the Harper cuts.  They put you on hold for 30 min, then you get an automated message informing you about higher than normal volume of calls and asking you to call again later.   Then the machine hangs up.

Be grateful you're not an immigrant. CIC (now IRCC) has been telling me they're having higher than normal call volumes and can't even put me on hold for about 15 years. I'm guessing the non-moving average was set in 1947 when the department had a single telephone and hasn't been updated since.

Indeed. I have spent a lot of time helping immigrants. It got to the point they were saying that they would not take calls and they had a policy of not accepting people at the offices without appointments. Not sure if it has improved since then. The only recourse was MPs offices.

Very sad that people who are putting themselves as an investment in this country are treated so badly.

gadar

Some things never change. I am surprised Alan still tries, come on man we all know its not about the NDP. It has never been all these years. It is about getting strong leadership, like Harpers. The BC election was all about jobs jobs jobs and Christy was such a great leader until she wasnt. The NDP under Horgan was dead in water until they won the election and all of a sudden they were cheered as great saviours. Now how does one get away with all the bs? It is simple and it has worked brilliantly. One just needs to spew so much crap that even yesterday starts to look like ancient history. Who is going to go back to the statements made months or years back. 

I cant help but repeat, the glee is not for the 2% gain by NDP, it is about how it changes the big picture.