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latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Nanos typically puts out a poll every month or so. Their last one was in June, let's see if they release anything by end of July


Centrist
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Joined: Apr 7 2004
Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

Nik on the Numbers

The latest Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a ballot share of 33.6% nationally, while the NDP have slid to 30.3%. The Liberals remained in third with 26.5%, while the Greens and Bloc were at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively.

 

I find it worrisome that this country continues to give the Conservatives support while the gov't continues to behave just despicably, especially with refugee health, budget cuts that impact social and other  programs,  but also with regard to the environment, muzzling of scientists, etc... Surprised


knownothing
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Joined: Mar 24 2011

234 sample of people in Quebec is hardly definitive. You know this is funny, I got a call from nanos 5 days ago and they asked me about health care and the language of pharmaceuticals vs. medicine but no questions on who I support. They just wanted to know why the word pharmaceutical has a bad image but the word medicine does not.

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

I don't buy a lot of these numbers, especially the Prairie numbers. They don't make any sense and are contrarty to what we've seen pretty much from anyone else over the last 6 months or so. I don't know how Nanos does his polling or determines its sample, but this poll looks just too fishy.

I say it again, I don't trust this guy at all. On top of that, on TV, he always looks like the guy who thinks he's smarter then eveyone else.

This poll is another Nanos outlier.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

On top of what I read above, those Green numbers are  fishy, and as well, I have NEVER believed the Greens got most of their votes from the NDP. If you look at the poll, that is what can obviously be inferred. This poll has problems and as I said, its Prairie numbers are absolutely not believeable. I hate this guy Nanos, and would feel the same if he showed the NDP ahead. Get ready for serveral days of "Nik Gloating". The guy is insufferable! Don't watch P&P unless you can take the gloating in the "Nanos Number" portion they surely will have today.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Nanos is to the Liberal party what Ekos is to the Greens, he over inflates them at the expense of the NDP. I never trust Nanos' numbers. Its sad his numbers get the most attention.

JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Reliability of these numbers aside, I was expecting a drop simply because the House isn't sitting. During a parliamentary session the NDP's strengths are on display and must be accorded reasonable coverage. Out of session, the media can return to its default Liberal/Conservative comfort zone.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

And of course, here we go. The Huff Post helping the Libs as always,

Headline "

The Nanos Number: Federal Liberals On The Move In Quebec

From the article "Recognized as one of Canada's top research experts, Nik Nanos provides numbers-driven counsel to senior executives and major organizations. He leads the analyst team at Nanos, is a Fellow of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association and a Research Associate Professor with SUNY (Buffalo)." This is from a CBC article, quelle surpris!

I know we have to expect this from CBC, but it really makes my blood boil. I'll say it again. Why don't they just start calling themselves the "Justin Trudeau" for Prime Minister of Canada Network". By the way, its accompanied with more Trudeau pictures.

I hate these guys.


jjuares
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Joined: Jan 21 2012

Nanos consistently gets data showing the LPC stronger than any other pollster. Why is that never pointed out?  Last election he had higher numbers for the LPC until the very last poll.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

I also find Nanos's poll suspicious because it shows the Libs way ahead of the BQ in Quebec (25.0% to 17.2%) when nearly every other poll shows the BQ substantially ahead of the Libs.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

i think he only ask to his facebook friend list over 3,000 most liberal supporters, his 3,000 fb list called him, nobody call him phone lol!


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

You know I just have to say it, its funny that when the NDP are ahead by less the three points, the headline is always "NDP and Tories in statistical tie". Funny that. Over at Huff Post by the way, all the Libs are going the NDP is fading fast, except the NDP has been ahead for almost a year and a half and is still well ahead of the Libs, never mind statiscal noise. That kind of garbage just grinds me. In between May, and these guys, its pretty clear who doesn't like the NDP.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Arthur Cramer wrote:

You know I just have to say it, its funny that when the NDP are ahead by less the three points, the headline is always "NDP and Tories in statistical tie". Funny that.

Get used to it, Arthur.  Expect anything less than a 5-point NDP lead to be considered a 'statistical tie' by pollsters.

 


Steve_Shutt
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Joined: Jul 30 2002

David Young wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

You know I just have to say it, its funny that when the NDP are ahead by less the three points, the headline is always "NDP and Tories in statistical tie". Funny that.

Get used to it, Arthur.  Expect anything less than a 5-point NDP lead to be considered a 'statistical tie' by pollsters.

 

I'm not sure that this is necessarily a bad thing for us.  When the threshold of inevitablilty gets crossed it will be far harder to engage in the "sky is falling - we must all panic - socialists at the gates" hyperbole that would otherwise be part of the MSM discussion.

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Quebec provincial in Forum Research on Aug 1, 2012

 

NDP 34% (-5 from May 15)
BQ 24% (+3)
LIB 19% (+2)
CON 15% (-1)
GRN 4% (=)
OTH 4% (+1)

18-34
NDP 38% (-2)
BQ 33% (+9)
LIB 13% (+1)
CON 9% (-4)
GRN 5% (-2)

35-44
NDP 38% (-4)
BQ 24% (+6)
LIB 16% (+2)
CON 15% (-3)
GRN 3% (-1)

45-54
NDP 33% (-2)
BQ 24% (-2)
LIB 20% (+1)
CON 13% (-2)
GRN 5% (+2)

55-64
NDP 36% (-7)
BQ 24% (+6)
LIB 17% (-1)
CON 14% (-1)
GRN 5% (+3)
 
65+
NDP 27% (-10)
LIB 27% (+4)
CON 23% (+4)
BQ 18% (+3)
GRN 2% (-1)

Male
NDP 34% (-5)
BQ 22% (+1)
CON 19% (-1)
LIB 17% (+2)
GRN 5% (+2)

Female
NDP 35% (-4)
BQ 26% (+6)
LIB 21% (+2)
CON 11% (-1)
GRN 3% (-2)

Montreal
NDP 40% (-1)
BQ 24% (+4)
LIB 19% (=)
CON 11% (-2)
GRN 4% (=)

Quebec City
NDP 26% (-9)
CON 26% (-2)
BQ 20% (+4)
LIB 19% (+4)
GRN 2% (=)

North Shore
NDP 30% (-6)
BQ 27% (+5)
LIB 19% (+1)
CON 16% (-1)
GRN 5% (=)

South Shore
NDP 31% (-10)
BQ 26% (+3)
LIB 18% (+4)
CON 16% (+2)
GRN 3% (-2)

Francophone
NDP 36% (-4)
BQ 27% (+4)
LIB 16% (+1)
CON 14% (-1)
GRN 4% (+1)

Anglophone (Non-francophone)
LIB 34% (+2)
NDP 30% (-3)
CON 23% (+4)
BQ 6% (+2)
GRN 5% (-2)

Current Provincial Party Preference
NDP <- QS 57% (=), PVQ 44% (+10), CAQ 43% (-9), PQ 34% (-1), PLQ 27% (-2), OTH 28% (-19)
BQ <- PQ 55% (+5), QS 23% (+2), OTH 15% (+6), CAQ 14% (=), PVQ 8% (-1), PLQ 2% (=)
LIB <- PLQ 43% (+3), CAQ 12% (+4), OTH 8% (+6), QS 6% (=), PQ 4% (-2), PVQ 4% (-6)
CON <- PLQ 27% (+1), CAQ 23% (+2), OTH 12% (-5), PQ 4% (-1), QS 4% (-1), PVQ 2% (-6)
GRN <- PVQ 33% (-4), OTH 10% (-6), QS 5% (=), CAQ 3% (=), PQ 2% (-1), PLQ 1% (=)


Brachina
Online
Joined: Feb 15 2012
That poll is not good, but it maybe more a reflection of what,going on in Quebec provincially. Plus thier Quebec numbers provincially seemed off, both,PQ and QLP seemed too high at CAQ and QS's expense, especially given the other poll released the same day. We'll see.

Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

This is clearly an outlier...but more to the point HELLO - there is a provincial election campaign going on now in Quebec and that means that provincial politics now occupy about 99% of the political space in Quebec - esp. since its summer and ntohing is happening in Ottawa. Its obvious that when people are 99% focused on the provincial scene, some segment of "low information voters" will get their provincial and federal preferences cross-pollinated. The federal Liberals share the same brand name as the Quebec Liberals who stand at 38% in this poll. The Bloc Quebecois is essentially the federal wins of the Parti Quebecois which is at 39% in this poll. Its a no-brainer that this will inflate support for the BQ and the federal Liberals at least a teny bit in Quebec.

In contrast the NDP has no analogous brand in Quebec at all (unless you count the very marginal Quebec Solidaire which does not even have a remotely similar name) and neither do the federal Conservatives. When the ADQ was around at least there was a provincial party in Quebec that shared the word "democratique" in its name with the NDP - now that's gone with CAQ.

My advice is to pay no attention whatsoever to any federal polling # in Quebec until AFTER the Quebec election on Sept. 4 and preferable after parliament resumes in mid-September.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

That's a good point Stockholm, but low information voters are still voters. The Federal Liberals and the Federal Parti Quebecois both live and die by their reputation in the provinces. Fortunately, I think Charest has been a net negative for the Liberals and their appeal to progressives in Quebec, the same way that the BC Liberals have killed their reputation as a progressive party out west. The movement is real, but for the reasons you stated, I hope it will be temporary.


knownothing
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Joined: Mar 24 2011

Why didn't we organize a provincial wing for this election?


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

I think it's just as interesting to see the CAQ/NDP crossover--an "anti-establishment" rather than a "left" vote?  (Sort of like if one were to transcribe the 1992 US election to Quebec, there's be a heavy NDP/Perot crossover.  Don't cringe.)


Brachina
Online
Joined: Feb 15 2012
Blunt Objects blog is happy that the NDP is down and that the cons would win more seats in Quebecand yet still pretends its a progressive. Funny thing is Progressive Bloggers pretends its filled with regressives, such as Sun columnist Warren Kinesella. Progressive Bloggers bugs me more then the msm because it pretends to be a progressive site, while I've written off the msm.

Brachina
Online
Joined: Feb 15 2012
http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.ca/2012/08/on-connections.html?m=1 If the Sask Party aka the reincarnated tories mess around with polls are any polls trust worthy, federal or provincially?

Michael Moriarity
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Joined: Jul 27 2001

That article is talking about the totally unscientific, completely useless, internet polls, where anyone with an IP address can have a vote. Nothing to worry about.

 


DSloth
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Joined: Apr 26 2011

knownothing wrote:

Why didn't we organize a provincial wing for this election?

Same reason the other two main Federal Parties in Canada don't have any formal links to any Quebec Parties, (The Federal and Provincial Liberals have been divorced for almost 50 years).


knownothing
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Joined: Mar 24 2011

DSloth wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Why didn't we organize a provincial wing for this election?

Same reason the other two main Federal Parties in Canada don't have any formal links to any Quebec Parties, (The Federal and Provincial Liberals have been divorced for almost 50 years).

And what reasons are those?


love is free
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Joined: May 21 2012

because the structure of electoral competition in quebec is vastly different from that of other provinces or at the federal level.  the playing field is totally different and, as a matter of course, parties in quebec must universally support a vision of the canadian federation (much more decentralized) and of quebec (as an autonomous polity inside a canadian federation) that no other canadian party could sign onto, lest it isolate itself from the canadian mainstream.  were the conservatives or new democrats to (re-)establish provincial wings, it would only serve to indicate to quebecois the extent to which the federal entities do not ascribe to the quebec consensus and, thus, to hurt the federal campaigns next time around.

moreover, the current iterations of the federal parties are really big and diverse coalitions - the ndp currently the biggest of all.  for the party to fracture that by breaking with the current bargain - that this is a federal party standing on a certain number of issues - and to link up to a provincial party that would be forced to take on all sorts of positions unrelated to those ndp issues (quebec vs newfoundland on resources, for instance), i'm thankful that we've leadership wise enough not to go down that road.


adma
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Joined: Jan 21 2006

And lest we forget, BC politics has a little of that element, too--especially in the "free enterprise coalition" end (once Socred, lately BC Liberal)


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Yeah, the provincial wings cut both ways.

The provincial Liberal parties have become a liability to the Federal Liberals. The "free enterprise coalition" in BC and the "federalist coalition" in Quebec both pander to a lot of right-wing concerns. So in two of the most populous provinces in the country, the Liberal brand isn't seen as progressive.

It's one of the reasons we've been able to grow so much in those provinces. When the Liberal suggest they're the ones who can stop Harper, it just fundamentally doesn't make sense. We're not even talking about a credibility gap anymore. We're talking about nonsense: how is austerity imposed by Jean Charest any different from austerity imposed by Steven Harper?

That's why it's great to be the NDP in Quebec and BC. The NDP is the only party of progress in those provinces. (We even outflanked the Bloc Quebecois, while maintaining our federalist bonafides.)

It also might be why it's so shitty to be the NDP in Saskatchewan. Yeah, the province has made a right-turn, and no party can stay dominant forever. But you have to wonder if the wishy-washy, Tony Blair, New Labor type of stuff has completely ruined the NDP brand there for a while.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

...but for some reason the same recipe is keeping the NDP in power in manitoba election after election!


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