latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

Nanos typically puts out a poll every month or so. Their last one was in June, let's see if they release anything by end of July

Nik on the Numbers

The latest Nanos tracking shows the Conservatives with a ballot share of 33.6% nationally, while the NDP have slid to 30.3%. The Liberals remained in third with 26.5%, while the Greens and Bloc were at 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively.

I find it worrisome that this country continues to give the Conservatives support while the gov't continues to behave just despicably, especially with refugee health, budget cuts that impact social and other  programs,  but also with regard to the environment, muzzling of scientists, etc...

I don't buy a lot of these numbers, especially the Prairie numbers. They don't make any sense and are contrarty to what we've seen pretty much from anyone else over the last 6 months or so. I don't know how Nanos does his polling or determines its sample, but this poll looks just too fishy.

I say it again, I don't trust this guy at all. On top of that, on TV, he always looks like the guy who thinks he's smarter then eveyone else.

This poll is another Nanos outlier.

And of course, here we go. The Huff Post helping the Libs as always,

Headline "

The Nanos Number: Federal Liberals On The Move In Quebec

From the article "Recognized as one of Canada's top research experts, Nik Nanos provides numbers-driven counsel to senior executives and major organizations. He leads the analyst team at Nanos, is a Fellow of the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association and a Research Associate Professor with SUNY (Buffalo)." This is from a CBC article, quelle surpris!

I know we have to expect this from CBC, but it really makes my blood boil. I'll say it again. Why don't they just start calling themselves the "Justin Trudeau" for Prime Minister of Canada Network". By the way, its accompanied with more Trudeau pictures.

I hate these guys.

I also find Nanos's poll suspicious because it shows the Libs way ahead of the BQ in Quebec (25.0% to 17.2%) when nearly every other poll shows the BQ substantially ahead of the Libs.

You know I just have to say it, its funny that when the NDP are ahead by less the three points, the headline is always "NDP and Tories in statistical tie". Funny that. Over at Huff Post by the way, all the Libs are going the NDP is fading fast, except the NDP has been ahead for almost a year and a half and is still well ahead of the Libs, never mind statiscal noise. That kind of garbage just grinds me. In between May, and these guys, its pretty clear who doesn't like the NDP.

I'm not sure that this is necessarily a bad thing for us.  When the threshold of inevitablilty gets crossed it will be far harder to engage in the "sky is falling - we must all panic - socialists at the gates" hyperbole that would otherwise be part of the MSM discussion.

That's a good point Stockholm, but low information voters are still voters. The Federal Liberals and the Federal Parti Quebecois both live and die by their reputation in the provinces. Fortunately, I think Charest has been a net negative for the Liberals and their appeal to progressives in Quebec, the same way that the BC Liberals have killed their reputation as a progressive party out west. The movement is real, but for the reasons you stated, I hope it will be temporary.

I think it's just as interesting to see the CAQ/NDP crossover--an "anti-establishment" rather than a "left" vote?  (Sort of like if one were to transcribe the 1992 US election to Quebec, there's be a heavy NDP/Perot crossover.  Don't cringe.)

Same reason the other two main Federal Parties in Canada don't have any formal links to any Quebec Parties, (The Federal and Provincial Liberals have been divorced for almost 50 years).

because the structure of electoral competition in quebec is vastly different from that of other provinces or at the federal level.  the playing field is totally different and, as a matter of course, parties in quebec must universally support a vision of the canadian federation (much more decentralized) and of quebec (as an autonomous polity inside a canadian federation) that no other canadian party could sign onto, lest it isolate itself from the canadian mainstream.  were the conservatives or new democrats to (re-)establish provincial wings, it would only serve to indicate to quebecois the extent to which the federal entities do not ascribe to the quebec consensus and, thus, to hurt the federal campaigns next time around.

moreover, the current iterations of the federal parties are really big and diverse coalitions - the ndp currently the biggest of all.  for the party to fracture that by breaking with the current bargain - that this is a federal party standing on a certain number of issues - and to link up to a provincial party that would be forced to take on all sorts of positions unrelated to those ndp issues (quebec vs newfoundland on resources, for instance), i'm thankful that we've leadership wise enough not to go down that road.

Yeah, the provincial wings cut both ways.

The provincial Liberal parties have become a liability to the Federal Liberals. The "free enterprise coalition" in BC and the "federalist coalition" in Quebec both pander to a lot of right-wing concerns. So in two of the most populous provinces in the country, the Liberal brand isn't seen as progressive.

It's one of the reasons we've been able to grow so much in those provinces. When the Liberal suggest they're the ones who can stop Harper, it just fundamentally doesn't make sense. We're not even talking about a credibility gap anymore. We're talking about nonsense: how is austerity imposed by Jean Charest any different from austerity imposed by Steven Harper?

That's why it's great to be the NDP in Quebec and BC. The NDP is the only party of progress in those provinces. (We even outflanked the Bloc Quebecois, while maintaining our federalist bonafides.)

It also might be why it's so shitty to be the NDP in Saskatchewan. Yeah, the province has made a right-turn, and no party can stay dominant forever. But you have to wonder if the wishy-washy, Tony Blair, New Labor type of stuff has completely ruined the NDP brand there for a while.