latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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adma

I think it's just as interesting to see the CAQ/NDP crossover--an "anti-establishment" rather than a "left" vote?  (Sort of like if one were to transcribe the 1992 US election to Quebec, there's be a heavy NDP/Perot crossover.  Don't cringe.)

Brachina

Blunt Objects blog is happy that the NDP is down and that the cons would win more seats in Quebecand yet still pretends its a progressive. Funny thing is Progressive Bloggers pretends its filled with regressives, such as Sun columnist Warren Kinesella. Progressive Bloggers bugs me more then the msm because it pretends to be a progressive site, while I've written off the msm.

Brachina

http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.ca/2012/08/on-connections.html?m=1

If the Sask Party aka the reincarnated tories mess around with polls are any polls trust worthy, federal or provincially?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

That article is talking about the totally unscientific, completely useless, internet polls, where anyone with an IP address can have a vote. Nothing to worry about.

 

DSloth

[quote=knownothing]

Why didn't we organize a provincial wing for this election?

[/quote]

Same reason the other two main Federal Parties in Canada don't have any formal links to any Quebec Parties, (The Federal and Provincial Liberals have been divorced for almost 50 years).

knownothing knownothing's picture

[quote=DSloth]

[quote=knownothing]

Why didn't we organize a provincial wing for this election?

[/quote]

Same reason the other two main Federal Parties in Canada don't have any formal links to any Quebec Parties, (The Federal and Provincial Liberals have been divorced for almost 50 years).

[/quote]

And what reasons are those?

love is free love is free's picture

because the structure of electoral competition in quebec is vastly different from that of other provinces or at the federal level.  the playing field is totally different and, as a matter of course, parties in quebec must universally support a vision of the canadian federation (much more decentralized) and of quebec (as an autonomous polity inside a canadian federation) that no other canadian party could sign onto, lest it isolate itself from the canadian mainstream.  were the conservatives or new democrats to (re-)establish provincial wings, it would only serve to indicate to quebecois the extent to which the federal entities do not ascribe to the quebec consensus and, thus, to hurt the federal campaigns next time around.

moreover, the current iterations of the federal parties are really big and diverse coalitions - the ndp currently the biggest of all.  for the party to fracture that by breaking with the current bargain - that this is a federal party standing on a certain number of issues - and to link up to a provincial party that would be forced to take on all sorts of positions unrelated to those ndp issues (quebec vs newfoundland on resources, for instance), i'm thankful that we've leadership wise enough not to go down that road.

adma

And lest we forget, BC politics has a little of that element, too--especially in the "free enterprise coalition" end (once Socred, lately BC Liberal)

socialdemocrati...

Yeah, the provincial wings cut both ways.

The provincial Liberal parties have become a liability to the Federal Liberals. The "free enterprise coalition" in BC and the "federalist coalition" in Quebec both pander to a lot of right-wing concerns. So in two of the most populous provinces in the country, the Liberal brand isn't seen as progressive.

It's one of the reasons we've been able to grow so much in those provinces. When the Liberal suggest they're the ones who can stop Harper, it just fundamentally doesn't make sense. We're not even talking about a credibility gap anymore. We're talking about nonsense: how is austerity imposed by Jean Charest any different from austerity imposed by Steven Harper?

That's why it's great to be the NDP in Quebec and BC. The NDP is the only party of progress in those provinces. (We even outflanked the Bloc Quebecois, while maintaining our federalist bonafides.)

It also might be why it's so shitty to be the NDP in Saskatchewan. Yeah, the province has made a right-turn, and no party can stay dominant forever. But you have to wonder if the wishy-washy, Tony Blair, New Labor type of stuff has completely ruined the NDP brand there for a while.

Stockholm

...but for some reason the same recipe is keeping the NDP in power in manitoba election after election!

adma

[quote=socialdemocraticmiddle]The provincial Liberal parties have become a liability to the Federal Liberals. The "free enterprise coalition" in BC and the "federalist coalition" in Quebec both pander to a lot of right-wing concerns. So in two of the most populous provinces in the country, the Liberal brand isn't seen as progressive.[/quote]

Though the McGuinty Liberals may be an exception--if more in being a non-liability than in being "progressive"; and in their case, it's more the beleaguered federal party that's *their* liability than vice versa...

socialdemocrati...

I'm a young guy who lived in the Toronto bubble for a long time. To be honest, I'm amazed that the NDP has been elected and maintained power nearly anywhere. So I'll be first to say that my understanding of the West isn't all that great.

But to the best of my understanding:

SASKATCHEWAN: The NDP became outright incoherent. Promising one thing and doing another.

MANITOBA: The NDP may have made some frustrating compromises, but still didn't go nearly as far with privatization, anti-labor stuff.

ONTARIO: The PCs ruled the province without interruption for 42 years. For their brief time in power, the NDP inherited a recession, tried and failed to win support of conservatives, and alienated their base in the process. They became almost universally hated. Their brand has only begun to turn the corner on recovering.

Brachina

The NDP went wrong during the 90's , but I still wouldn't call them New Labour. Mistakes were made, bad or weak leaders chosen. I still believe in the NDP dream, we just need leaders that can shake off the taint of the 90's.

Leaders Like Tom, Lorrianne, Andrea. That why guts and honesty trump almost everything else (although there is a minium leftwingness). Its also why I'd never vote liberal, thier leaders have been liers and assholes for ages now, with Lester B. Pearson being the last one,I liked (Trudeau had his moments, but he was a dick).

Anyways I do think that were starting to get past the 90's mistaken way of thinking (Dexter excluded hopefully he wakes the fuck up), If Lorriane (leader of Newfoundland NDP), Tom (Federal NDP), Andrea (Ontario NDP), and Dix (NDP BC),get elected look for a new era of NDP politics the puts the tradgety of bad influences in the 90's to rest.

janfromthebruce

yeah, and Bob Rae's a big time Liberal now so that shows where he really came from.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

[quote=Stockholm]

...but for some reason the same recipe is keeping the NDP in power in manitoba election after election!

[/quote]

And it's ended up meaning next-to-nothing in terms of actual progressive change.  The Manitoba situation begs the question...is hanging onto power-in-name worth agreeing to do basically nothing WITH that power?

And if a federal NDP government were to carry out Manitoba NDP(or, gods forbid, Nova Scotia NDP)-type policies, would it have been worth electing them at all?

An NDP government is SUPPOSED to be totally different than a Liberal or Conservative government.  If it's more the same than not...then what's the flipping point?  Change that's too minor to notice isn't ever going to have genuinely radical or even positive effects.

Fidel

Try doing something revolutionary in Manitoba after conservatives pawn-off the most profitable public enterprise after MTS, Manitoba Hydro. Ken, how much public enterprise has to be scuttled by the two old line parties before it represents a challenge to renationalise? 

They have one of the lowest costs of living in the country. Why screw that up simply because they haven't achieved socialism in one province? Throwing out the Manitoba NDP in favour of actual neoliberal ideologues makes no sense to me whatsoever. Observe the banana republicanization of Ontario. Is this what they want in Manitoba - debt up their eyeballs and cancelling collective bargaining for schoolboards? Be careful of what you wish for.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Yes, Fidel, the Manitoba PC's did a lot of damage.  That doesn't mean, however, that the NDP could ONLY get back into power by agreeing to not undo much of any of the damage.

Was it really worth it just to get slightly fewer cuts at a slightly slower pace?  Is it out of the question to even expect NO LOST GROUND?

If it is, why bother?

Just reducing the choice to "the same damage, or slightly less damage" makes it utterly pointless.

You are basically arguing for total defeatism and surrender UNTIL THE MAGICAL, WONDROUS DAY when pr is finally put into place, as far as I can see.  Why take such a hopeless approach, an approach that can only have the effect of hollowing out the soul of any left party that chooses it.  At some point, there HAS to be a stand taken, a culture of defiance created.  If not now, when?

And I wasn't calling for total revolution...just a fight for SOME real gains...and when it comes to gains, small ones really aren't worth anything.  Change you don't notice isn't really change at all, and doesn't help anyone. 

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

I don't know the Manitoba NDP from a hole in the ground but, they are in their 4th term as the Sask NDP were before they lost power. Any govt that has been in that long is probably hopelessly corrupt and incapable of change.

I would say the best you can hope for is that after their 4th term they won't be so hated that they are completely destroyed like the Sask NDP. If the Tories and Liberals get together like they did with the SK Party here, the NDP would get wiped out.

Otherwise I agree with Fidel, hold on as long as you can. But if you hold on too long you will tarnish the NDP brand.

Ippurigakko

Finally

 

Forum polls - July 26

NDP 35% (unchange)
CON 31% (-4)
LIB 22% (+3)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 5% (+2)

18-34
NDP 45% (+3)
CON 20% (-7)
LIB 17% (+3)
GRN 10% (+4)
BQ 8% (-1)

35-44
CON 38% (+3)
NDP 31% (-6)
LIB 18% (+1)
BQ 6% (+1)
GRN 5% (+1)

45-54
NDP 33% (-6)
CON 32% (=)
LIB 23% (+5)
BQ 7% (-1)
GRN 5% (+3)

55-64
NDP 37% (+3)
CON 30% (-6)
LIB 24% (+2)
BQ 7% (+2)
GRN 2% (=)

65+
CON 35% (-10)
NDP 31% (+4)
LIB 25% (+3)
BQ 4% (+1)
GRN 3% (+1)

Male
CON 34% (-7)
NDP 32% (-4)
LIB 23% (+10)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 4% (+1)

Female
NDP 38% (+3)
CON 28% (-2)
LIB 20% (-4)
BQ 7% (+1)
GRN 6% (+2)

Atlantic
NDP 43% (+10)
LIB 36% (+8)
CON 18% (-17)
GRN 2% (=)

Quebec
NDP 40% (-2)
BQ 22% (=)
LIB 18% (+3)
CON 18% (=)
GRN 3% (+1)

Ontario
CON 37% (-3)
NDP 30% (-3)
LIB 27% (+4)
GRN 5% (+2)

Prairies
NDP 40% (-8)
CON 34% (-4)
LIB 19% (+9)
GRN 6% (+2)

Alberta
CON 57% (-6)
NDP 22% (+9)
LIB 13% (-5)
GRN 6% (+1)

BC
NDP 42% (+5)
CON 32% (-7)
LIB 15% (-2)
GRN 10% (+4)

Past Vote
NDP <- NDP 79%, OTH 31%, BQ 28%, LIB 24%, GRN 21%, CON 7%
CON<- CON 80%, OTH 34%, GRN 8%, BQ 8%, LIB 5%, NDP 4%
LIB <- LIB 67%, OTH 12%, GRN 11%, CON 10%, NDP 9%, BQ 4%
GRN  <- GRN 51%, OTH 10%, NDP 5%, LIB 3%, BQ 1%, CON 1%
BQ <- BQ 59%, GRN 7%, NDP 3%, OTH 2%, LIB 1%, CON 1%

 

Seats

NDP 128
CON 114
LIB 58
BQ 7
GRN 1

 

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/38209...

David Young

Gee!

A poll released that shows the NDP with a 4-point lead over the Conservatives, and yet not one mention of it in the M.S.M.

Surprise...surprise...surprise!

 

Brachina

I'm just happy to having the NDP leading, on top were it belongs and no stupid what if Liberal leader question.

Truth be told though all these polls will be long forgotten by 2015, although it is a good reminder of who the real opposition is, Canada hasn't had an official opposition this good in ages.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Big slide for the Cons among 18-34 year olds.  Wonder if they'll try to fix that by setting up a photo op for Harper with "Biebs"?

The NDP COULD bring a lot more of those young voters around by adopting a more dovish foreign policy.  A lot of kids are going to be looking for a party that might actually make it LESS likely that they or their friends will come home from Afghanistan(or goddess forbid, Iran)in a box.

Vansterdam Kid

[Duplicate]

Vansterdam Kid

OMG, O'RLY? WTF BBQ! LOL! WAT R U TLKNG ABOUT?

Actually, I think my demographic isn't that unique. It's all about self-interest. Whoever appeals to our self interest and enunciates how they'll fix our problems, will have the advantage. Although people are so jaded that I can't see it mattering too much from an electoral perspective, considering how pathetic 18-34 turnout is.

So while talking about Afghanistan is all well and good, I don't think anyone cares that much, even if they're against it. Basically, show us the money and address our concerns about why our parents and grandparents had it so good, but we're getting the scraps. That's, like, fucked up or something.

So yeah, even though economic inequality is more of a class based issue, it affects younger people alot more than it does older people. Social mobility is spiralling downwards, as most people I know are worse off than their parents were at our ages, even though they're better educated. Basically we're over qualified, under compensated, under employed and highly indebted. Considering that we have to pay way more for an education, can't really afford housing and struggle to find decent jobs, three slightly important things, I'd say this is the most important issue out there for the 18-34 set. Though things aren't as bad here as they are over in southern Europe, I wouldn't be too surprised to see something akin to that situation when the housing bubble in Canada finally collapses.

janfromthebruce

I checked out the poll results and found that they made a mistake in suggesting that strongest support for the NDP was in Alantic region, Quebec and Manitoba. However, BC actually gave the most support to the NDP, so I wrote the forum guy to let him know that the cover part was incorrect.

I also noted that the NDP beat out all other parties across all income brackets, including those making over 100 grand/year. Interesting that the NDP polled in this way, and that in fact the worse demographic was for those making the least income.

Oh, and Mulcair had the best leadership scores - again. Kiss

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

[quote=Vansterdam Kid]

OMG, O'RLY? WTF BBQ! LOL! WAT R U TLKNG ABOUT?

Actually, I think my demographic isn't that unique. It's all about self-interest. Whoever appeals to our self interest and enunciates how they'll fix our problems, will have the advantage. Although people are so jaded that I can't see it mattering too much from an electoral perspective, considering how pathetic 18-34 turnout is.

So while talking about Afghanistan is all well and good, I don't think anyone cares that much, even if they're against it. Basically, show us the money and address our concerns about why our parents and grandparents had it so good, but we're getting the scraps. That's, like, fucked up or something.

So yeah, even though economic inequality is more of a class based issue, it affects younger people alot more than it does older people. Social mobility is spiralling downwards, as most people I know are worse off than their parents were at our ages, even though they're better educated. Basically we're over qualified, under compensated, under employed and highly indebted. Considering that we have to pay way more for an education, can't really afford housing and struggle to find decent jobs, three slightly important things, I'd say this is the most important issue out there for the 18-34 set. Though things aren't as bad here as they are over in southern Europe, I wouldn't be too surprised to see something akin to that situation when the housing bubble in Canada finally collapses.

[/quote]

Wasn't saying the NDP shouldn't talk about income inequality.  Tie it all in together.  Also, work in democratic decision-making on economic issues and finance(clearly, we can't leave finance to the banks anymore because they'll just keep trying to starve the rest of us). 

Ippurigakko

Ugh, I dislike Abacus

 

Abacus Data - Aug 12, 2012
CON 37% (+2)
NDP 32% (-3)
LIB 20% (=)
GRN 6% (=)
BQ 6% (+1)

Atlantic
NDP 36% (+7)
CON 33% (+3)
LIB 29% (-1)
GRN 3% (-8)

Quebec
NDP 41% (-2)
BQ 25% (+3)
LIB 18% (+3)
CON 14% (-3)
GRN 3% (+1)

Ontario
CON 40% (+3)
NDP 29% (-2)
LIB 24% (-4)
GRN 7% (+2)

Prairies
CON 48% (-5)
NDP 33% (-6)
LIB 11% (+4)
GRN 8% (+6)

Alberta
CON 70% (+9)
LIB 15% (+4)
NDP 14% (-11)
GRN 2% (-1)

BC
NDP 40% (+1)
CON 35% (-3)
LIB 16% (+1)
GRN 9% (+1)

ROC
CON 44% (+3)
NDP 30% (-2)
LIB 21% (-1)
GRN 6% (=)

Men
CON 40% (+3)
NDP 29% (-4)
LIb 20% (-1)
BQ 7% (+2)
GRN 5% (+1)

Women
NDP 36% (=)
CON 33% (=)
LIB 20% (=)
GRN 6% (+1)
BQ 5% (-1)

18-29
NDP 42% (+4)
CON 27% (-1)
LIB 16% (-7)
GRN 9% (+3)
BQ 6% (=)

30-44
NDP 33% (-2)
CON 32% (=)
LIB 21% (-1)
GRN 7% (+1)
BQ 7% (+2)

45-59
CON 41% (+3)
NDP 30% (-5)
LIB 19% (+4)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 5% (=)

60+
CON 44% (+5)
NDP 27% (-4)
LIB 22% (=)
BQ 4% (-1)
GRN 3% (+1)

Aristotleded24

[quote=Stockholm]...but for some reason the same recipe is keeping the NDP in power in manitoba election after election![/quote]

That reason would be that the PCs keep electing horrible leaders and losing elections that are theirs to win.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

I don't believe the Alberta numbers at all. I also don't buy the Lib movement in Quebec. Considering noise the, NDP is either 1- 2 % points behind the Cons or not. This isn't a bad poll. Those Alberta numbers are completely whacked. Outlier all over this one.

adma

I don't buy that the Greens would be 2% in Alberta yet 8% in ManSask.

Ippurigakko

Forum Research - Aug 16 in Calgary Centre byelection

 

Calgary-Centre
CON 44% (-14 from last election)
LIB 21% (+3)
NDP 14% (-1)
GRN 12% (+2)
OTH 9%

18-34
LIB 30%
GRN 26%
OTH 20%
NDP 13%
CON 11%

35-54
CON 51%
NDP 18%
LIB 17%
GRN 9%
OTH 5%

55+
CON 59%
LIB 21%
NDP 10%
GRN 6%
OTH 4%

Male
CON 50%
LIB 23%
GRN 10%
NDP 9%
OTH 9%

Female
CON 39%
LIB 20%
NDP 19%
GRN 14%
OTH 8%

Past vote
CON <- CON 78%, GRN 12%, NDP 9%, LIB 5%
LIB <- LIB 70%, CON 13%, NDP 12%, GRN 0%
NDP <- NDP 56%, LIB 17%, CON 2%, GRN 0%
GRN <- GRN 62%, NDP 9%, LIB 8%, CON 2%
OTH <- GRN 26%, NDP 15%, CON 5%, LIB 0%

Approve / Disapprove
Harper 49% / 43%
Mulcair 27% / 44%
Rae 36% / 33%

 

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/8697...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

[quote=David Young]

Nanos Research released four polls between May and September 2011, when the Conservatives had a 5%+ lead over the NDP.

Now that the NDP is leading the Conservatives (or in a 'statistical tie'), suddenly Nanos isn't giving out poll results?

Does anyone else find that suspicious?

 

[/quote]

Well, I have always thought Nanos released outliers. Is it a plot, well, it is hard not to think so. But I don't know. Either way, I hate Nanos and wish he would just go away. Man, when he is on TV, there is NOONE who comes across as more arrogant and know it all then this guy. He's full of it and himself.

adma

[quote=Ippurigakko]

Forum Research - Aug 16 in Calgary Centre byelection[/quote]

If we're to take that at face value, so much for the post-Stampede Mulcair "bump".  (But what's with the Liberals?  Provincial coattails?  Nenshi?)

janfromthebruce

Well has an NDP candidate been named yet? That may have lots to do with the polling number.

David Young

[quote=janfromthebruce]

Well has an NDP candidate been named yet? That may have lots to do with the polling number.

[/quote]

Agreed!

What sense is there in releasing poll results when then voters don't even know all of the candidates who are going to be on the ballot?

I'd like to know if the Christian Heritage Party will have a candidate.

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Simply a case of trying to perempt the NDP and undermine them every way possible. Polling companies, like Nanos for example, have agendas as well.

David Young

[quote=Arthur Cramer]

Simply a case of trying to perempt the NDP and undermine them every way possible. Polling companies, like Nanos for example, have agendas as well.

[/quote]

Agreed, Arthur!

If you watch Nik Nanos, you can see his barely hidden contempt for anything positive about the NDP!

 

Lord Palmerston

[quote=janfromthebruce]

yeah, and Bob Rae's a big time Liberal now so that shows where he really came from.

[/quote]

And ironically Bob Rae's platform and policy were way to the left of Andrea Horwath today.

adma

[quote=Lord Palmerston]And ironically Bob Rae's platform and policy were way to the left of Andrea Horwath today.

[/quote]

"The rank and file forced me into it!"

Stockholm

[quote=Lord Palmerston]

[quote=janfromthebruce]

yeah, and Bob Rae's a big time Liberal now so that shows where he really came from.

[/quote]

And ironically Bob Rae's platform and policy were way to the left of Andrea Horwath today.

[/quote]

The NDP platform in 1990 had some progressive elements, but Rae quickly jettisoned all that after taking power

Brachina

Doesn't matter what Bob Rae was back then, it was a different party and political era and a different political point in his life. However progressive he may have been, that died along time ago and the Bob Rae of today is far less progressive then Andrea, Bob supported Harper well over a hundred times on key bills, like Afrganistan, budgets, ect... Without getting any concessions. Bob Rae new democract died long ago, along with his soul, unleashing the demon spawn Liberal we all know and loath. Don't kid yourself about Justin either, he's cut from the same cloth.

Lord Palmerston

[quote=Brachina]Doesn't matter what Bob Rae was back then, it was a different party and political era and a different political point in his life. However progressive he may have been, that died along time ago and the Bob Rae of today is far less progressive then Andrea, Bob supported Harper well over a hundred times on key bills, like Afrganistan, budgets, ect... Without getting any concessions. Bob Rae new democract died long ago, along with his soul, unleashing the demon spawn Liberal we all know and loath. Don't kid yourself about Justin either, he's cut from the same cloth.[/quote]

Fair enough, but it's absurd to suggest that Rae was "really a Liberal" when he has with the NDP.  Otherwise that would be even more true of Dexter and Selinger today.

janfromthebruce

I don't blame Bob in the outcome as he was only one person in the NDP govt. For sure, he would have lots of influence as the leader but he did not get elected alone. Having said that, I also recognize that the Ontario NDP govt was not an island in itself, and there was a wider context and political/economic environment both nationally and globally.

So you have the Mulroney PCs in power in Ottawa with Bank of Canada policy to have 1% inflation and sucking the life out of our economy during a very bad recession. Every govt, fed and prov was in doggy do-do, so I don't put all the blame on Bob Rae. And also we had a business class in Ontario that would not let the NDP rule.

I just with the NDP had put in Public Auto Insurance.

I think we do a big disservice to our history when we decide to delete the context of the times.

Ippurigakko

Forum polls: Federal in Ontario - Aug 15, 2012
 
CON 37% (=)
NDP 29% (=)
LIB 24% (+2)
GRN 7% (=)

North Ontario
CON 37% (+1)
NDP 34% (+4)
LIB 18% (-2)
GRN 7% (-2)

East Ontario
CON 42% (-5)
NDP 27% (+7)
LIB 20% (-1)
GRN 10% (+2)

Southwest Ontario
NDP 32% (-9)
CON 31% (-5)
LIB 26% (+11)
GRN 7% (+4)

Toronto 416 / 905 / GTA
CON 32% (+6) / 40% (-2) / 37% (+1)
NDP 30% (+2) / 25% (+1) / 27% (+1)
LIB 30% (-3) / 25% (+1) / 27% (=)
GRN 7% (-1) / 6% (=) / 6% (-1)

18-34
NDP 36% (+5)
CON 24% (-3)
LIB 23% (+4)
GRN 15% (=)

35-44
CON 36% (-3)
NDP 32% (+5)
LIB 21% (=)
GRN 9% (+3)

45-54
CON 39% (+3)
LIB 28% (+8)
NDP 24% (-6)
GRN 6% (+1)

55-64
CON 39% (-1)
NDP 29% (-3)
LIB 23% (+3)
GRN 5% (-1)

65+
CON 43% (-1)
NDP 27% (+3)
LIB 26% (-1)
GRN 4% (+1)

Male
CON 39% (-1)
NDP 27% (-1)
LIB 25% (+4)
GRN 5% (-3)

Female
CON 34% (-1)
NDP 31% (+1)
LIB 24% (=)
GRN 9% (+4)

NET Christian
CON 45%
NDP 24%
LIB 24%
GRN 5%

NET non-Christian
NDP 42%
LIB 30%
CON 13%
GRN 9%

Catholic
CON 43%
LIB 29%
NDP 21%
GRN 4%

None
NDP 38%
LIB 24%
CON 23%
GRN 12%

Ontario Catholic school sytem
CON 36%
NDP 30%
LIB 26%
GRN 7%

Ontario public school system
CON 36%
NDP 30%
LIB 23%
GRN 8%

Some other school system
CON 39%
LIB 27%
NDP 25%
GRN 5%

Ontario Preference
CON <- PC 88%, POTH 13%, OLIB 11%, ONDP 6%, OGRN 3%
NDP <- ONDP 79%, OLIB 17%, POTH 11%, OGRN 8%, PC 6%
LIB <- OLIB 68%, POTH 18%, OGRN 15%, ONDP 13%, PC 5%
GRN <- OGRN 70%, OLIB 4% POTH 2%, ONDP 1%, PC 1%

Ippurigakko

Forum research - Aug 22, 2012

Alberta NDP gained than another provinces what wrong with them?

Quebec LIB is on second, wat the hell? I guess that cuz of Charest

 

CON 34% (+3)
NDP 34% (-1)
LIB 22% (=)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 4% (-2)

Atlantic
NDP 39% (-4)
LIB 29% (-7)
CON 28% (+10)
GRN 4% (-1)

Quebec
NDP 34% (-6)
LIB 23% (+5)
BQ 22% (=)
CON 18% (=)
GRN 2% (-1)

Ontario
CON 39% (+2)
NDP 32% (+2)
LIB 25% (-2)
GRN 4% (-1)

Prairies
CON 41% (+7)
NDP 37% (-3)
LIB 16% (-3)
GRN 4% (-2)

Alberta
CON 55% (-2)
NDP 25% (+3)
LIB 15% (-2)
GRN 3% (-3)

BC
NDP 39% (-3)
CON 35% (+3)
LIB 17% (+2)
GRN 8% (-2)

18-34
NDP 38% (-7)
CON 27% (+7)
LIB 23% (+6)
GRN 6% (-4)
BQ 5% (-3)

35-44
NDP 33% (+2)
CON 32% (-6)
LIB 22% (+4)
BQ 7% (+1)
GRN 5% (=)

45-54
CON 36% (+4)
NDP 34% (+1)
LIB 18% (+5)
BQ 8% (+1)
GRN 3% (-2)

55-64
NDP 38% (+1)
CON 31% (+1)
LIB 22% (-2)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 3% (+1)

65+
CON 41% (+6)
LIB 26% (+1)
NDP 25% (-6)
BQ 4% (=)
GRN 2% (-1)

Male
CON 39% (+5)
NDP 31% (-1)
LIB 22% (-1)
BQ 5% (-1)
GRN 3% (-1)

Female
NDP 36% (-2)
CON 29% (+1)
LIB 22% (+2)
BQ 7% (=)
GRN 5% (-1)

Approve - Disapprove
Mulcair 41% (+5) / 31% (+2)
Harper 36% (+4) / 57% (-2)
Rae 32% (-2) / 40% (+7)

Seats
CON 140
NDP 114
LIB 46
BQ 7
GRN 1

Past vote (2011)
CON <- CON 81%, OTH 37%, GRN 9%, NDP 7%, LIB 6%, BQ 5%
NDP <- NDP 78%, GRN 31%, BQ 23%, OTH 20%, LIB 20%, CON 9%
LIB <- LIB 70%, OTH 22%, GRN 18%, BQ 9%, NDP 9%, CON 7%
BQ <- BQ 60%, OTH 5%, NDP 4%, GRN 1%, LIB 1%, CON 1%
GRN <- GRN 40%, LIB 3%, NDP 2%, BQ 1%, CON 1%, OTH 0%

Brachina

Probably just a Margin of error shift. And were still in first.

JeffWells

Funny, I don't remember the Post letting us enjoy the lead. I thought it was always a "statistical tie."

Also, I think we're doing well to be where we are at the end of the summer. The NDP performs best when the House is in session and the press can't ignore us.

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Harris Decima:

 

34 Cons, 27 NDP, 24 Libs. Margin of error probably 3 or 4 points. NDP could still be and likely are at 30 or 31%. OF COURSE Alan Gregg says Canadians "are returning to their normal voting patterns", implying the NDP is finished. Ontario numbers are bad. I think that is where the problem is. NDP still leading in Qubec ahead of the everyone, the Bloc are closest.

So, any thoughts folks?

knownothing knownothing's picture

I think the polls are gonna look bad for us until the day before the next election, that's what I think.

Ippurigakko

Cons 34 (+3), NDP 27% (-5), LIB 24% (+1), GRN 7 and BQ 5

I read Twitter, they happy to hear the results becuz they are liberal supporters.

 

Ugh, Harris Decima remind me of Nanos and Mexican opinion polls.

just ignore H.D and Nanos.

Dont forget liberal leadership race, might more gaining %. after leadership race finish then NDP and liberal tied or whatever.

hope they vote weak liberal leader.

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