babble-intro-img
babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.

latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

3710 replies [Last post]

Comments

adma
Offline
Joined: Jan 21 2006

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:
The provincial Liberal parties have become a liability to the Federal Liberals. The "free enterprise coalition" in BC and the "federalist coalition" in Quebec both pander to a lot of right-wing concerns. So in two of the most populous provinces in the country, the Liberal brand isn't seen as progressive.

Though the McGuinty Liberals may be an exception--if more in being a non-liability than in being "progressive"; and in their case, it's more the beleaguered federal party that's *their* liability than vice versa...


socialdemocrati...
Offline
Joined: Jan 10 2012

I'm a young guy who lived in the Toronto bubble for a long time. To be honest, I'm amazed that the NDP has been elected and maintained power nearly anywhere. So I'll be first to say that my understanding of the West isn't all that great.

But to the best of my understanding:

SASKATCHEWAN: The NDP became outright incoherent. Promising one thing and doing another.

MANITOBA: The NDP may have made some frustrating compromises, but still didn't go nearly as far with privatization, anti-labor stuff.

ONTARIO: The PCs ruled the province without interruption for 42 years. For their brief time in power, the NDP inherited a recession, tried and failed to win support of conservatives, and alienated their base in the process. They became almost universally hated. Their brand has only begun to turn the corner on recovering.


Brachina
Offline
Joined: Feb 15 2012
The NDP went wrong during the 90's , but I still wouldn't call them New Labour. Mistakes were made, bad or weak leaders chosen. I still believe in the NDP dream, we just need leaders that can shake off the taint of the 90's. Leaders Like Tom, Lorrianne, Andrea. That why guts and honesty trump almost everything else (although there is a minium leftwingness). Its also why I'd never vote liberal, thier leaders have been liers and assholes for ages now, with Lester B. Pearson being the last one,I liked (Trudeau had his moments, but he was a dick). Anyways I do think that were starting to get past the 90's mistaken way of thinking (Dexter excluded hopefully he wakes the fuck up), If Lorriane (leader of Newfoundland NDP), Tom (Federal NDP), Andrea (Ontario NDP), and Dix (NDP BC),get elected look for a new era of NDP politics the puts the tradgety of bad influences in the 90's to rest.

janfromthebruce
Offline
Joined: Apr 24 2007

yeah, and Bob Rae's a big time Liberal now so that shows where he really came from.


Ken Burch
Offline
Joined: Feb 26 2005

Stockholm wrote:

...but for some reason the same recipe is keeping the NDP in power in manitoba election after election!

And it's ended up meaning next-to-nothing in terms of actual progressive change.  The Manitoba situation begs the question...is hanging onto power-in-name worth agreeing to do basically nothing WITH that power?

And if a federal NDP government were to carry out Manitoba NDP(or, gods forbid, Nova Scotia NDP)-type policies, would it have been worth electing them at all?

An NDP government is SUPPOSED to be totally different than a Liberal or Conservative government.  If it's more the same than not...then what's the flipping point?  Change that's too minor to notice isn't ever going to have genuinely radical or even positive effects.


Fidel
Offline
Joined: Apr 29 2004

Try doing something revolutionary in Manitoba after conservatives pawn-off the most profitable public enterprise after MTS, Manitoba Hydro. Ken, how much public enterprise has to be scuttled by the two old line parties before it represents a challenge to renationalise? 

They have one of the lowest costs of living in the country. Why screw that up simply because they haven't achieved socialism in one province? Throwing out the Manitoba NDP in favour of actual neoliberal ideologues makes no sense to me whatsoever. Observe the banana republicanization of Ontario. Is this what they want in Manitoba - debt up their eyeballs and cancelling collective bargaining for schoolboards? Be careful of what you wish for.


Ken Burch
Offline
Joined: Feb 26 2005

Yes, Fidel, the Manitoba PC's did a lot of damage.  That doesn't mean, however, that the NDP could ONLY get back into power by agreeing to not undo much of any of the damage.

Was it really worth it just to get slightly fewer cuts at a slightly slower pace?  Is it out of the question to even expect NO LOST GROUND?


If it is, why bother?

Just reducing the choice to "the same damage, or slightly less damage" makes it utterly pointless.

You are basically arguing for total defeatism and surrender UNTIL THE MAGICAL, WONDROUS DAY when pr is finally put into place, as far as I can see.  Why take such a hopeless approach, an approach that can only have the effect of hollowing out the soul of any left party that chooses it.  At some point, there HAS to be a stand taken, a culture of defiance created.  If not now, when?

And I wasn't calling for total revolution...just a fight for SOME real gains...and when it comes to gains, small ones really aren't worth anything.  Change you don't notice isn't really change at all, and doesn't help anyone. 

 


knownothing
Offline
Joined: Mar 24 2011

I don't know the Manitoba NDP from a hole in the ground but, they are in their 4th term as the Sask NDP were before they lost power. Any govt that has been in that long is probably hopelessly corrupt and incapable of change.

I would say the best you can hope for is that after their 4th term they won't be so hated that they are completely destroyed like the Sask NDP. If the Tories and Liberals get together like they did with the SK Party here, the NDP would get wiped out.

Otherwise I agree with Fidel, hold on as long as you can. But if you hold on too long you will tarnish the NDP brand.


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

Finally

 

Forum polls - July 26

NDP 35% (unchange)
CON 31% (-4)
LIB 22% (+3)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 5% (+2)

18-34
NDP 45% (+3)
CON 20% (-7)
LIB 17% (+3)
GRN 10% (+4)
BQ 8% (-1)

35-44
CON 38% (+3)
NDP 31% (-6)
LIB 18% (+1)
BQ 6% (+1)
GRN 5% (+1)

45-54
NDP 33% (-6)
CON 32% (=)
LIB 23% (+5)
BQ 7% (-1)
GRN 5% (+3)

55-64
NDP 37% (+3)
CON 30% (-6)
LIB 24% (+2)
BQ 7% (+2)
GRN 2% (=)

65+
CON 35% (-10)
NDP 31% (+4)
LIB 25% (+3)
BQ 4% (+1)
GRN 3% (+1)

Male
CON 34% (-7)
NDP 32% (-4)
LIB 23% (+10)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 4% (+1)

Female
NDP 38% (+3)
CON 28% (-2)
LIB 20% (-4)
BQ 7% (+1)
GRN 6% (+2)

Atlantic
NDP 43% (+10)
LIB 36% (+8)
CON 18% (-17)
GRN 2% (=)

Quebec
NDP 40% (-2)
BQ 22% (=)
LIB 18% (+3)
CON 18% (=)
GRN 3% (+1)

Ontario
CON 37% (-3)
NDP 30% (-3)
LIB 27% (+4)
GRN 5% (+2)

Prairies
NDP 40% (-8)
CON 34% (-4)
LIB 19% (+9)
GRN 6% (+2)

Alberta
CON 57% (-6)
NDP 22% (+9)
LIB 13% (-5)
GRN 6% (+1)

BC
NDP 42% (+5)
CON 32% (-7)
LIB 15% (-2)
GRN 10% (+4)


Past Vote
NDP <- NDP 79%, OTH 31%, BQ 28%, LIB 24%, GRN 21%, CON 7%
CON<- CON 80%, OTH 34%, GRN 8%, BQ 8%, LIB 5%, NDP 4%
LIB <- LIB 67%, OTH 12%, GRN 11%, CON 10%, NDP 9%, BQ 4%
GRN  <- GRN 51%, OTH 10%, NDP 5%, LIB 3%, BQ 1%, CON 1%
BQ <- BQ 59%, GRN 7%, NDP 3%, OTH 2%, LIB 1%, CON 1%

 

Seats

NDP 128
CON 114
LIB 58
BQ 7
GRN 1

 

http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/38209...


David Young
Offline
Joined: Dec 9 2007

Gee!

A poll released that shows the NDP with a 4-point lead over the Conservatives, and yet not one mention of it in the M.S.M.

Surprise...surprise...surprise!

 


Brachina
Offline
Joined: Feb 15 2012
I'm just happy to having the NDP leading, on top were it belongs and no stupid what if Liberal leader question. Truth be told though all these polls will be long forgotten by 2015, although it is a good reminder of who the real opposition is, Canada hasn't had an official opposition this good in ages.

Ken Burch
Offline
Joined: Feb 26 2005

Big slide for the Cons among 18-34 year olds.  Wonder if they'll try to fix that by setting up a photo op for Harper with "Biebs"?

The NDP COULD bring a lot more of those young voters around by adopting a more dovish foreign policy.  A lot of kids are going to be looking for a party that might actually make it LESS likely that they or their friends will come home from Afghanistan(or goddess forbid, Iran)in a box.


Vansterdam Kid
Offline
Joined: Apr 15 2004

[Duplicate]


Vansterdam Kid
Offline
Joined: Apr 15 2004

OMG, O'RLY? WTF BBQ! LOL! WAT R U TLKNG ABOUT?

Actually, I think my demographic isn't that unique. It's all about self-interest. Whoever appeals to our self interest and enunciates how they'll fix our problems, will have the advantage. Although people are so jaded that I can't see it mattering too much from an electoral perspective, considering how pathetic 18-34 turnout is.

So while talking about Afghanistan is all well and good, I don't think anyone cares that much, even if they're against it. Basically, show us the money and address our concerns about why our parents and grandparents had it so good, but we're getting the scraps. That's, like, fucked up or something.

So yeah, even though economic inequality is more of a class based issue, it affects younger people alot more than it does older people. Social mobility is spiralling downwards, as most people I know are worse off than their parents were at our ages, even though they're better educated. Basically we're over qualified, under compensated, under employed and highly indebted. Considering that we have to pay way more for an education, can't really afford housing and struggle to find decent jobs, three slightly important things, I'd say this is the most important issue out there for the 18-34 set. Though things aren't as bad here as they are over in southern Europe, I wouldn't be too surprised to see something akin to that situation when the housing bubble in Canada finally collapses.


janfromthebruce
Offline
Joined: Apr 24 2007

I checked out the poll results and found that they made a mistake in suggesting that strongest support for the NDP was in Alantic region, Quebec and Manitoba. However, BC actually gave the most support to the NDP, so I wrote the forum guy to let him know that the cover part was incorrect.

I also noted that the NDP beat out all other parties across all income brackets, including those making over 100 grand/year. Interesting that the NDP polled in this way, and that in fact the worse demographic was for those making the least income.

Oh, and Mulcair had the best leadership scores - again. Kiss


Ken Burch
Offline
Joined: Feb 26 2005

Vansterdam Kid wrote:

OMG, O'RLY? WTF BBQ! LOL! WAT R U TLKNG ABOUT?

Actually, I think my demographic isn't that unique. It's all about self-interest. Whoever appeals to our self interest and enunciates how they'll fix our problems, will have the advantage. Although people are so jaded that I can't see it mattering too much from an electoral perspective, considering how pathetic 18-34 turnout is.

So while talking about Afghanistan is all well and good, I don't think anyone cares that much, even if they're against it. Basically, show us the money and address our concerns about why our parents and grandparents had it so good, but we're getting the scraps. That's, like, fucked up or something.

So yeah, even though economic inequality is more of a class based issue, it affects younger people alot more than it does older people. Social mobility is spiralling downwards, as most people I know are worse off than their parents were at our ages, even though they're better educated. Basically we're over qualified, under compensated, under employed and highly indebted. Considering that we have to pay way more for an education, can't really afford housing and struggle to find decent jobs, three slightly important things, I'd say this is the most important issue out there for the 18-34 set. Though things aren't as bad here as they are over in southern Europe, I wouldn't be too surprised to see something akin to that situation when the housing bubble in Canada finally collapses.

Wasn't saying the NDP shouldn't talk about income inequality.  Tie it all in together.  Also, work in democratic decision-making on economic issues and finance(clearly, we can't leave finance to the banks anymore because they'll just keep trying to starve the rest of us). 


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

Ugh, I dislike Abacus

 

Abacus Data - Aug 12, 2012
CON 37% (+2)
NDP 32% (-3)
LIB 20% (=)
GRN 6% (=)
BQ 6% (+1)

Atlantic
NDP 36% (+7)
CON 33% (+3)
LIB 29% (-1)
GRN 3% (-8)

Quebec
NDP 41% (-2)
BQ 25% (+3)
LIB 18% (+3)
CON 14% (-3)
GRN 3% (+1)

Ontario
CON 40% (+3)
NDP 29% (-2)
LIB 24% (-4)
GRN 7% (+2)

Prairies
CON 48% (-5)
NDP 33% (-6)
LIB 11% (+4)
GRN 8% (+6)

Alberta
CON 70% (+9)
LIB 15% (+4)
NDP 14% (-11)
GRN 2% (-1)

BC
NDP 40% (+1)
CON 35% (-3)
LIB 16% (+1)
GRN 9% (+1)

ROC
CON 44% (+3)
NDP 30% (-2)
LIB 21% (-1)
GRN 6% (=)

Men
CON 40% (+3)
NDP 29% (-4)
LIb 20% (-1)
BQ 7% (+2)
GRN 5% (+1)

Women
NDP 36% (=)
CON 33% (=)
LIB 20% (=)
GRN 6% (+1)
BQ 5% (-1)

18-29
NDP 42% (+4)
CON 27% (-1)
LIB 16% (-7)
GRN 9% (+3)
BQ 6% (=)

30-44
NDP 33% (-2)
CON 32% (=)
LIB 21% (-1)
GRN 7% (+1)
BQ 7% (+2)

45-59
CON 41% (+3)
NDP 30% (-5)
LIB 19% (+4)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 5% (=)

60+
CON 44% (+5)
NDP 27% (-4)
LIB 22% (=)
BQ 4% (-1)
GRN 3% (+1)


Aristotleded24
Online
Joined: May 24 2005

Stockholm wrote:
...but for some reason the same recipe is keeping the NDP in power in manitoba election after election!

That reason would be that the PCs keep electing horrible leaders and losing elections that are theirs to win.


Arthur Cramer
Offline
Joined: Nov 30 2010

I don't believe the Alberta numbers at all. I also don't buy the Lib movement in Quebec. Considering noise the, NDP is either 1- 2 % points behind the Cons or not. This isn't a bad poll. Those Alberta numbers are completely whacked. Outlier all over this one.


adma
Offline
Joined: Jan 21 2006

I don't buy that the Greens would be 2% in Alberta yet 8% in ManSask.


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

Forum Research - Aug 16 in Calgary Centre byelection

 

Calgary-Centre
CON 44% (-14 from last election)
LIB 21% (+3)
NDP 14% (-1)
GRN 12% (+2)
OTH 9%

18-34
LIB 30%
GRN 26%
OTH 20%
NDP 13%
CON 11%

35-54
CON 51%
NDP 18%
LIB 17%
GRN 9%
OTH 5%

55+
CON 59%
LIB 21%
NDP 10%
GRN 6%
OTH 4%

Male
CON 50%
LIB 23%
GRN 10%
NDP 9%
OTH 9%

Female
CON 39%
LIB 20%
NDP 19%
GRN 14%
OTH 8%

Past vote
CON <- CON 78%, GRN 12%, NDP 9%, LIB 5%
LIB <- LIB 70%, CON 13%, NDP 12%, GRN 0%
NDP <- NDP 56%, LIB 17%, CON 2%, GRN 0%
GRN <- GRN 62%, NDP 9%, LIB 8%, CON 2%
OTH <- GRN 26%, NDP 15%, CON 5%, LIB 0%

Approve / Disapprove
Harper 49% / 43%
Mulcair 27% / 44%
Rae 36% / 33%

 

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/8697...


Arthur Cramer
Offline
Joined: Nov 30 2010

David Young wrote:

Nanos Research released four polls between May and September 2011, when the Conservatives had a 5%+ lead over the NDP.

Now that the NDP is leading the Conservatives (or in a 'statistical tie'), suddenly Nanos isn't giving out poll results?

Does anyone else find that suspicious?

 

Well, I have always thought Nanos released outliers. Is it a plot, well, it is hard not to think so. But I don't know. Either way, I hate Nanos and wish he would just go away. Man, when he is on TV, there is NOONE who comes across as more arrogant and know it all then this guy. He's full of it and himself.


adma
Offline
Joined: Jan 21 2006

Ippurigakko wrote:

Forum Research - Aug 16 in Calgary Centre byelection

If we're to take that at face value, so much for the post-Stampede Mulcair "bump".  (But what's with the Liberals?  Provincial coattails?  Nenshi?)


janfromthebruce
Offline
Joined: Apr 24 2007

Well has an NDP candidate been named yet? That may have lots to do with the polling number.


David Young
Offline
Joined: Dec 9 2007

janfromthebruce wrote:

Well has an NDP candidate been named yet? That may have lots to do with the polling number.

Agreed!

What sense is there in releasing poll results when then voters don't even know all of the candidates who are going to be on the ballot?

I'd like to know if the Christian Heritage Party will have a candidate.

 


Arthur Cramer
Offline
Joined: Nov 30 2010

Simply a case of trying to perempt the NDP and undermine them every way possible. Polling companies, like Nanos for example, have agendas as well.


David Young
Offline
Joined: Dec 9 2007

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Simply a case of trying to perempt the NDP and undermine them every way possible. Polling companies, like Nanos for example, have agendas as well.

Agreed, Arthur!

If you watch Nik Nanos, you can see his barely hidden contempt for anything positive about the NDP!

 


Lord Palmerston
Offline
Joined: Jan 25 2004

janfromthebruce wrote:

yeah, and Bob Rae's a big time Liberal now so that shows where he really came from.

And ironically Bob Rae's platform and policy were way to the left of Andrea Horwath today.


adma
Offline
Joined: Jan 21 2006

Lord Palmerston wrote:
And ironically Bob Rae's platform and policy were way to the left of Andrea Horwath today.

"The rank and file forced me into it!"


Stockholm
Offline
Joined: Sep 29 2002
Lord Palmerston wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

yeah, and Bob Rae's a big time Liberal now so that shows where he really came from.

And ironically Bob Rae's platform and policy were way to the left of Andrea Horwath today.

The NDP platform in 1990 had some progressive elements, but Rae quickly jettisoned all that after taking power

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or register to post comments