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latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

Environics poll released today:

 

NDP  35

Con 31

LIB 20

bq 9

g 5

 

I think 31% is about the lowest the Cons have been since they formed government.

There are significant regional variations with other rcent polls.

The BQ is up to 33 in Quebec, within 4 of the NDP

The NDP leads in Ontario 36-32-26

The Cons lead in BC 42-34.

 

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics-Research---Federal-Vote-Intention-Sept-27-2012.pdf


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

New Environics poll out today. So far as I've seen, ignored by the media, except used tangentially to spin another "Could Justin help?" story.

 

NDP: 35%

Cons: 31%

Lib: 20%

BQ: 9%

Green: 5%

http://www.environics.ca/uploads/File/Environics-Research---Federal-Vote...

 


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

A fun fact from the last Abacus poll is that being from a union household, as opposed to the general population, makes zero statistical difference in your likelihood to vote NDP vs. Conservative.


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

The NDP are showing surprising strength compared to their historical results with 23% in the Environics poll and 29% in the Abacus poll in Alberta, possibly helping to give Linda Duncan some company in the future. 


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

The NDP are showing surprising strength compared to their historical results with 23% in the Environics poll and 29% in the Abacus poll in Alberta, possibly helping to give Linda Duncan some company in the future. 

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Forum Research on sept 28

CON 35% (+1)
NDP 30% (-4)
LIB 25% (+3)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 3% (-1)

Atlantic
NDP 34% (-4)
CON 34% (+6)
LIB 29% (=)
GRN 2% (-2)

Quebec
LIB 30% (+7)
NDP 29% (-5)
BQ 22% (=)
CON 17% (-1)
GRN 1% (-1)

Ontario
CON 37% (-2)
NDP 30% (-2)
LIB 28% (+3)
GRN 4% (=)

Prairies
CON 47% (+6)
NDP 33% (-4)
LIB 13% (-3)
GRN 6% (+2)

Alberta
CON 60% (+5)
NDP 20% (-5)
LIB 16% (+1)
GRN 4% (+1)

BC
CON 43% (+8)
NDP 33% (-6)
LIB 20% (+3)
GRN 2% (-6)

18-34
CON 28% (+1)
LIB 28% (+5)
NDP 26% (-12)
BQ 10% (+5)
GRN 6% (=)

35-44
NDP 36% (+3)
CON 32% (=)
LIB 20% (-2)
BQ 7% (=)
GRN 3% (-2)

45-54
CON 37% (+1)
NDP 29% (-5)
LIB 27% (+9)
BQ 5% (-3)
GRN 2% (-1)

55-64
NDP 35% (-3)
CON 34% (+3)
LIB 24% (+2)
BQ 4% (-2)
GRN 2% (-1)

65+
CON 43% (+2)
LIB 26% (=)
NDP 25% (=)
BQ 4% (=)
GRN 2% (=)

Male
CON 42% (+3)
NDP 26% (-5)
LIB 23% (+1)
BQ 5% (=)
GRN 3% (=)

Female
NDP 33% (-3)
CON 29% (=)
LIB 28% (+6)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 3% (-2)

Past vote 2011
CON <- CON 80%, GRN 19%, OTH 15%, BQ 14%, NDP 6%, LIB 5%
NDP <- NDP 77%, OTH 32%, LIB 21%, GRN 20%, BQ 14%, CON 8%
LIB <- LIB 70%, OTH 24%, GRN 13%, NDP 13%, CON 10% , BQ 3%
BQ <- BQ 66%, OTH 5%, NDP 3%, GRN 2%, CON 1%, LIB 1%
GRN <- GRN 43%, OTH 7%, BQ 3%, LIB 2%, CON 1%, NDP 1%

~~~~

With Trudeau

LIB 39%
CON 32%
NDP 20%
BQ 6%
GRN 2%

Atlantic
LIB 53%
CON 25%
NDP 19%
GRN 2%

Quebec
LIB 43%
BQ 22%
NDP 19%
CON 15%
GRN 1%

Ontario
LIB 40%
CON 36%
NDP 20%
GRN 3%

Prairies
CON 45%
LIB 27%
NDP 25%
GRN 3%

Alberta
CON 55%
LIB 28%
NDP 14%
GRN 3%

BC
CON 38%
LIB 33%
NDP 25%
GRN 2%

Current Federal Party Preference
LIB <- LIB 93%, OTH 38%, GRN 31%, NDP 31%, CON 10%, BQ 5%
CON <- CON 89%, OTH 18%, GRN 8%, BQ 2%, LIB 2%, NDP 2%
NDP <- NDP 66%, OTH 10%, GRN 7%, LIB 4%, BQ 1%, CON 0%
BQ <- BQ 92%, GRN 4%, NDP 1%, CON 1%, LIb/OTH 0%
GRN <- GRN 50%, OTH 2%, CON/LIB/NDP/BQ 0%

18-34
LIB 41%
CON 25%
NDP 19%
BQ 11%
GRN 4%

35-44
LIB 39%
CON 29%
NDP 22%
BQ 7%
GRN 2%

45-54
LIB 41%
CON 34%
NDP 19%
BQ 4%
GRN 2%

55-64
LIB 39%
CON 31%
NDP 23%
BQ 4%
GRN 2%

65+
CON 40%
LIB 36%
NDP 19%
BQ 3%
GRN 1%

Male
CON 38%
LIB 26%
NDP 17%
BQ 5%
GRN 2%

Female
LIB 42%
CON 26%
NDP 23%
BQ 6%
GRN 2%

 

Trudeau enter liberal leadership, i feel he wins in next election likely majority i can predict! Just LIKE MEXICAN 2012 ELECTION! they back old natural ruling! I fear with it! IF Liberals is back ruling, then i will move out of Canada!


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7%

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 

 

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Ippurigako:

I have finally come to the realization that just because Trudeau runs, it doesn't mean there won't be a campaign, and we have Tom Mulcair, they don't. So, I am going to stop beating myself up in despair of Trudeau's run. He has to get past Tom and the NDP first, and it won't be easy. Just because a few polls say its so, doesn't make it so. I say, bring it on, you nepotistic, ego-manic, son-of-a-liberal! And Ippurigako, so should you.

Sorry, I don't recall reading about a Messiah named "Justin", in "The Good Book". Wink


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

That Trudeau poll is ridiculous. The fact that Canadians could be that easily swayed without any policy being involved is pretty sad


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Clambake, as I said, when there is actual debate, we'll clobber him. The one thing that is for certain though is that the NDP has going to have to do a really good job of communicating and expalining to Canadians why policy discussions matter. 


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

I have no doubt that Mulcair would outshine Trudeau in a debate. I do hope you are right about public perception though


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

clambake wrote:

I have no doubt that Mulcair would outshine Trudeau in a debate. I do hope you are right about public perception though

I am sure of it. That is why we became OO. People have started thinking for themselves. I truly belive things are starting to change. As Alan Grayson says, who is one of my heros (I wish I could vote for the guy), Courage!


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

If the election was today, who would you want to see be Prime Minister?

https://www.facebook.com/questions/373855779356604/

 

Mulcair and Trudeau are the neck and neck on polls, May in third and Steven last fourth.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Mulcair should push for more debates, get both Steven and Justin outside thier confort zones and into his.

Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Yea, but do you think Harper will seek next re-elect MP and PM or will he resigns? hard to tell... because he ve been long time politician in over 20-ish years since 1993 but he loser in 1988.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
Mulcair outguns any of Harpers would be successors like Baird, Peter, or Jason Kenny.

clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

Man, having Baird lead the CPC would be great


Malcontent
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Joined: Jul 5 2012

clambake wrote:

That Trudeau poll is ridiculous. The fact that Canadians could be that easily swayed without any policy being involved is pretty sad

I am not. People love celebrities.  Hell most Canadians know more about reality tv contestants and shows and hockey stats than they do about the real issues of the day. They have a very short attention span.

The sad reality is the sheeple will fall for the media love fest of Justtin. I see it already among people. If trudeau wins Liberal leadership (and I am sure he will)  the NDP will be third or 4th party (if BQ come back)  status come next election unfortunatly. That is the sad cold reality for them.


Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011

janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Well the media, owned by corporations do support the two corporate parties - Libs and Cons. The NDP has always known this and it is just more in our faces now. It's crony capitalism at it's best. They know, as well as the elites in the lib party that Trudeau for all his shallow talk, will do their bidding, and the beat will go on.

That said, Trudeau has done nothing so far but give flowery speech. He is being created as we speak.

And I have faith in the NDP. We actually had to fight hard to get where we are, actually representing the interests of ordinary Canadians. Have faith in Canadians and in the NDP.

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Debater in 3...2...1...


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Well, I don't have much use for Nanos. It is possible that this is a new reality. So, as I have posted so many times before, the NDP has got to get ahead of the LPC frame that somehow they are Moderates, and the NDP are a bunch of Extremists. They have used that tired-and-true formula over and over. The over thing that the NDP needs to do is start going hard after the real LPC record. Its time to stop being nice about Trudeau, Chretine and Martin. Most of us here know what those guys have done. The party reals needs to give this a good hard though.

On the other hand, the House is just getting back into action, this is one poll, and Trudeau hasn't said a lot. So, we'll see. But we all knew this wasn't going to be easy. 2015 is a long way away, and its pretty presumptous of any LPC supporter to think they have a lock on this.

Things are different, especially because I truly believe things have changed in Quebec and that the LPC is not going to get the kind of support there it assumes it will once they have a leader from Quebec, and it is precisely because of that thinking that is truning Qubec voters off. And one other thing, we have Tom Mulciar, they don't.

ETA: I looked at the Nano PDF. Some thoughts:

I see the Cons gained and the NDP fell in the Maritimes. I wonder how much of this relates to Nova Scotia? I don't see this as a permanent trend. As always, the NDP is still getting screwed in Ontario. This is clearly our problem area. Rae really did a number on us and the NDP continues to suffer from the Rae Hangover. The only place that was a surprise was BC. This numbers irritate the hell out of me, but I don't believe they represent a long term trend either. When you look at the rest of the poll, the Libs either stayed stationary or experienced small losses. They really didn't grow else wise. So, overall, I think this poll is not really that bad. I would have been worried if the Libs have moved in Atlantic Canada or the Pariries, but that simply didn't happen. I think there are other things at play here. Of course LPC partisans on this board and the MSM will play this otherwise, but I am not sure there is a lot to worry about here, even in the mid term. So, big breath on this one. This poll isn't anywhere near as bad as I expected. By the way, I believe Nanos numbers on the Pariries are just plain wrong; the LPC numbers are much higher then they likely are.


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

If the Libs are siphoning votes from the CPC in Ontario, then this could benefit the NDP. The BC numbers are troubling though, especially considering the condition of the BC Liberals. On the flip side, the NDP still lead in Quebec. It would be interesting to see the seat projections under this scenario.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

I wish I knew what was going on in BC. But, I think this is temporary. The MSM is pushing Trudeau as a "Son of BC" really hard right now. This will pass.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Arthur, by referring to the BC numbers as "temporary" you are implying that they have any validity whatsoever in the first place. I think they are simply wrong. The BC sub-sample is very small and every other poll since the last election has had the NDP in the mid 30s in BC...not to mention that a provincial poll out two days ago has BC NDP support at 49%! So my reaction to seeing those BC numbers is akin to how i would react if the poll showed the Green party in first place in Alberta - I would say that is it wrong - pure and simple.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

So, over on Huff Post some Lib posted that based on what he has found, however he did it, the surge is no surprise. This is after I posted much the same commentary that I posted here. So, I will ask, anyone who knows BC politics, as I don't, is there some kind of "Red Wave" I don't know about that is a secret known only to BC Lib partisans? Anyone want to take a shot at that?

Oh and by the way, there is things "

Probed about the NDP at the media scrum after the Facebook summit, Trudeau said, "I'd say they have to watch out. I look forward to waving at the NDP as I pass them on the way to the Prime Ministership."

What a jerk. He has as much class as brick in a pool of S***!


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

The NANO polling has always been higher for Liberals, and lower for the NDP. And Nanos has been the outier in comparison to other pollsters in this regard.

As usual, the NDP will have to fight hard against the corporate media and power brokers in this country in their quest to ensure only Liberals or Conservatives form federal govt. Crony capitalism lives on and is well in Canada.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

The NANO polling has always been higher for Liberals, and lower for the NDP. And Nanos has been the outier in comparison to other pollsters in this regard.

As usual, the NDP will have to fight hard against the corporate media and power brokers in this country in their quest to ensure only Liberals or Conservatives form federal govt. Crony capitalism lives on and is well in Canada.


Lou Arab
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Joined: Jul 25 2001

Federal Liberals often go up in BC polls between elections (likely for the reasons Stockholm suggests) only to fall when the votes are counted. I suspect their poor ground game in BC, (compared to the NDP - which transferrs its provincial organization to the cause) also contributes to their fall when election campaigns gear up.


jjuares
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Joined: Jan 21 2012

I am not sure if I trust the BC results and NANOS is always out oof line compaed to other pollsters when looking at the LPC. However, the constant love Justin is getting fom the media is going to eventually put them in second or first-for awhile at least. That is the key. All this Trudeaumania 2.0 is coming too early. It's a long ways to 2015. Plenty of time for Trudeaumania to recede and the NDP to respond with good policies and an imaginative platform.

Finally I see some potential chinks in his armor. First I think he is immature and arrogant. His old man was also arrogant but let's face it he had something to be arrogant about. Justin seems to have inherited the arrogance without the intellectual curiousity or heft one gets by pursuing knowledge for its own sake. If the press starst to pursue Justin as featherweight his rock star status will suddenly go from asset to liability.


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