latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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Doug

Which is all lovely and good for his leadership campaign, but unlike his father, Justin isn't going to be getting an election right after winning the leadership. There's lots of opportunity for successful attacks and for screw-ups.

socialdemocrati...

Finally, the 308 does some actual polling analysis, instead of just running the numbers through a spreadsheet:

the numbers reported by Forum on how respondents voted in the 2011 federal election are problematic. They show a vote share of 35% for the Tories (five points below the actual result), 27% for the NDP (-4), 25% for the Liberals (+6), 6% for the Bloc (correct), 5% for the Greens (+1), and 3% for other parties (+2).

So consider this. The poll is either accidentally or deliberately surveying more Liberals, and under-surveying Conservatives and New Democrats. And in spite of that, the NDP are still basically tied with the Tories. If you weight the sample properly, STILL a two way tie with the tories, and the best Justin can do is help Liberals earn a three-way statistical tie. (Not a 10 point lead.)

Keep in mind that Forum polling said we would have a Wildrose government in Alberta and a Conservative landslide in Ontario.

This is why I hate polling. Not because it's completely useless. But because for all the analysis that you could draw out from it, people just say "great! so this is how the election will go!"

The way I like to use polls is more of a measure of potential attitudes, ahead of an election. (Which, in this case, is still 3 years away.)

And in this case, this poll doesn't tell me anything I didn't already know before the last election: voting is fluid, there are a lot of people torn between two choices (not just NDP-Liberal, but NDP-Conservative), people who aren't voting NDP still like the NDP, and likewise, people who aren't voting Liberal still have some affinity towards the Liberals. Which means that anyone could win, under the right circumstances.

(But it will probably be a minority/coalition government, unless regional strongholds kick in.)

The point isn't to sit back and watch the polls, crying and cheering from week to week. The point is to respect how soft these numbers are, and have conversations with people about the direction of this country. You have more influence than you think.

Debater

Ippurigakko wrote:

Forum Research on oct 1,

Toronto only

           CON / LIB / NDP / GRN
total    32%   31%  30%      4%
18-34  30%   26%  31%      8%
35-44  22%   30%  39%      7%
45-54  27%   39%  31%      1%
55-64  36%   26%  23%      4%
Male   35%   29%  31%      3%
Female 30% 32%  30%      5%
EastY  21%  29%   44%     5%
NorthY 37% 33%  24%      2%
Eto-Y  34%   33%  26%      4%
Scarb 41%   26%  25%      6%
East   32%   30%  29%      5%
West  33%  31%   32%      3%
OPC   90%    6%     3%      0%
OLIB  12%   72%   14%     2%
ONDP   7%  16%   74%     2%
OGRN   8%  10%   11%   69%

Trudeau
LIB 40%, CON 30%, NDP 23%, GRN 4%

blah blah blah about Trudeau!!!!!!!! Media news too much about trudeau that why ppl pay attention and attract him! Canadian ppl are cheap! too easy to think Liberal can save Canada. Yeah whatever! I'd call them uneducated/ignorant.

Why are you so full of hate?  When you make comments like that, you don't sound like a social democrat or someone who is following the ideals of Broadbent & Layton.  When you lash out at Canadians for supporting Trudeau and call them names, it makes you sound ignorant to talk about the Canadian people that way.

Btw, let's not forget that the Liberals & NDP may need to work together after the next election in some type of government arrangement, because it IS too soon to know who will win and by how much.

From the very first time I posted here back in 2009, my objective was to foster co-operation between Liberal & NDP voters.  I myself was an Ed Broadbent supporter many years back.  I have worked for both parties over the years.

janfromthebruce

MSM corporate interests lies in ensuring that the two corporate parties are only viable. Thus they pump for Trudeau the manor born and leisure upper class persona so that a "real social democratic party" does not ever be seen as viable. Once elected, as a federal NDP govt, it has no more meme of saying they don't have the gravis to rule.

It's a mug's game.

Take note that in Ontario, prominent provincial liberals are not running again and eyeing a federal run. After using Ontario provincial treasury for their "political gain" and most definitely warn out their welcome, they are considering a federal run at the trough. And they see Justin as their ticket to the pork barrel.

Take note, this is not about "new blood" but just all the pretend stuff. All those young idealistic supporters for Justin mania will be only good enough to leaflet for the shiny one - because only the powerful and moneyed will be on the ticket.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater:

I will take a go. First of all, we are not full of hate. So, knock that off.

The majority of people posting here are either committed, and often card carrying New Democrats, who have always been so, or disaffected Libs who, having watched the LPC run left and govern right, realized that their allegence rested with a real left wing party, the NDP. We have a variety of backgrounds, and experiences, and come here having notice over and over how the LPC has run left, and governed right, united in a common desire to help elect a true left wing, and committed socially and politically progressive party that does not compromise itself for reasons of a pragmatism that results in legislation which hurts oridnary, working Canadians.

You have shown yourself over and over incapable of understanding that most of here simply know the LPC is not committed to Social Justice or fairness in any way. It seems it doesn't matter how many times we explain the reasons to you, you ignore, deflect, or attack seeminly oblvious to what has been said to you via written text. But, it seems that not only does whatever people write to you seem to go over your head, you leacture, patronize, and insult many of us in one way or another. Then after proclaiming your rightousness, you protest how anyone could possibly doubt your good intentions. I am sorry my friend, but that simply makes no sense at all. For my money, you seem to me, to be one of the most socially inept people I have ever known. You step all over people without any apparent comprehension that you have, and then proclaim surprise and dismay when you are called out for it. If anyone ever goes after you, you complain of being attacked without reason and demand apology. To say the least, that makes no sense.

There has been admonition after admonition on this board that people treat you well, some of that aimed at me. To say the least, it is hard to take that, given how impervious you seem to be to what is said to you. Its like you are living in this littel bubble of conciousness where the world you see is just not the one that exists. I'll be honset with you, I don't partiucalry like you. I think you are smug, condescending, and cocneited. On top of that, it takes all of my restraint not to want to verbally hammer you into next year.

I have decided that I want to stay around here and not be banned, so, I will obey the admonition to treat you with civility. But to say the least, I don't expect much from you in return. But so it goes.

For my money, I hope the NDP doesn't have to support the LPC. You guys will do what you always do, plot and intrigue, and wait for your chance to use such a coaltion to vault yourselves into majority status, just as you have done in the past. Debater your party is full of people of ill will. My MP, proclaims he is "pro choice", but voted in favor of establishing a committe to define when life beigns. Why would he do that, unless he wanted some limit put on a women's right to decide for herself what to do with her body? There can be no other explanation. You would have to be deliourisly navie to think he had any other motiviation. He represents what is the makeup of your party. A scheming, conniving, plotting, insincre swill of ill will and false intent. To expect that I would ever want to see the NDP  "co-operate" is to say the least, ridiculous.

Remember, you asked, so I answered. Don't complain about the reply. Why do we hate eh? My answer back to you Debater, is, project much?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Jan, I just saw your post. You nailed it again!

jerrym

jerrym wrote:

Here is a comparison of the 2011 federal riding results with the results of the Forum poll for these by elections.

2011/2012  Durham       Victoria       Calgary Centre

Con%       54.5/46        23.6/16        57.7/48

Lib%        17.9/20        14/16          17.5/28

NDP%      21.1/24        50.8/47        14.9/8

Green%    5.4/6           11.4/20        9.9/11

(The federal results are from http://www.scribd.com/doc/54674886/2011-Federal-Election-Results-by-Riding)

 

The Libs have only made a significant gain in Calgary Centre (10.5%), which may be a result of Mulcair's "Dutch disease" comments (which have been received more favourably elsewhere than in the oilpatch) and the fact that the NDP candidate has only just been selected, suggesting that Trudeau's coattails are not that strong. In Durham the Libs' percentage increase (2.1%) is within the Forum margin of error and less than the NDP increase (2.9%) despite the fact that the Lib candidate was selected much earlier. Furthermore, the Libs have fallen into a last place tie with the Cons, behind the Greens, in Victoria,where the NDP has a 27% margiin.

So much for Trudeaumania.

 

Debater my comments, such as the one above, and the vast majority of other comments simply reflect our opinions based on the information on hand as we see it. Everyone sees the world through their own lens and value systems and differences in valuations of political effect do not mean that someone hates those who have different believes. Your comment is an extreme overreaction. 

 

janfromthebruce

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Jan, I just saw your post. You nailed it again!

Thanks Arthur.

NorthReport

Canadians will have a choice in the next election whether to vote to continue the policies of the right like Trudeau and Harper or to go with the NDP.

The most recent of the Liberal Party of Canada's Prime Ministers put his own companies offshore to avoid Canadian income taxes, Canada's labour laws, and Canada's environmental protection laws. If that is the kind of reprersentation you want in Ottawa by all means vote Liberal.

Times have changed since the Trudeau-Chretien era, and there is a new kid in town - his name is Mulcair. Laughing

 

Mulcai-led NDP is in 1st place in the latest poll, and  in 1st place or tied for 1st place in 3 of the 5 most recent polls - not too shabby! Smile

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% /

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

8430

 

NorthReport

This post is quite offensive and has been flagged for "baiting"

Debater wrote:

Ippurigakko wrote:

Forum Research on oct 1,

Toronto only

           CON / LIB / NDP / GRN
total    32%   31%  30%      4%
18-34  30%   26%  31%      8%
35-44  22%   30%  39%      7%
45-54  27%   39%  31%      1%
55-64  36%   26%  23%      4%
Male   35%   29%  31%      3%
Female 30% 32%  30%      5%
EastY  21%  29%   44%     5%
NorthY 37% 33%  24%      2%
Eto-Y  34%   33%  26%      4%
Scarb 41%   26%  25%      6%
East   32%   30%  29%      5%
West  33%  31%   32%      3%
OPC   90%    6%     3%      0%
OLIB  12%   72%   14%     2%
ONDP   7%  16%   74%     2%
OGRN   8%  10%   11%   69%

Trudeau
LIB 40%, CON 30%, NDP 23%, GRN 4%

blah blah blah about Trudeau!!!!!!!! Media news too much about trudeau that why ppl pay attention and attract him! Canadian ppl are cheap! too easy to think Liberal can save Canada. Yeah whatever! I'd call them uneducated/ignorant.

Why are you so full of hate?  When you make comments like that, you don't sound like a social democrat or someone who is following the ideals of Broadbent & Layton.  When you lash out at Canadians for supporting Trudeau and call them names, it makes you sound ignorant to talk about the Canadian people that way.

Btw, let's not forget that the Liberals & NDP may need to work together after the next election in some type of government arrangement, because it IS too soon to know who will win and by how much.

From the very first time I posted here back in 2009, my objective was to foster co-operation between Liberal & NDP voters.  I myself was an Ed Broadbent supporter many years back.  I have worked for both parties over the years.

Brachina

NorthReport wrote:

Canadians will have a choice in the next election whether to vote to continue the policies of the right like Trudeau and Harper or to go with the NDP.

The most recent of the Liberal Party of Canada's Prime Ministers put his own companies offshore to avoid Canadian income taxes, Canada's labour laws, and Canada's environmental protection laws. If that is the kind of reprersentation you want in Ottawa by all means vote Liberal.

Times have changed since the Trudeau-Chretien era, and there is a new kid in town - his name is Mulcair. Laughing

 

Mulcai-led NDP is in 1st place in the latest poll, and  in 1st place or tied for 1st place in 3 of the 5 most recent polls - not too shabby! Smile

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% /

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

8430

 

This is the best news I've heard since Goofmania began, the NDP is still number one and at the point where Trudeau is already being refered to as the Liberal leader.

The Ontario Liberal Lemmings are already falling all over themselves to fallow him, what are they going to do when the bubble bursts and the free ride to power ends?

NorthReport

Do we already have this poll?

Environics Research Group – September 27, 2012

Highlights

 The New Democrats (35%, unchanged since June) narrowly lead the Conservatives (31%, down 2 points since June) in national vote intention. This is consistent with Environics surveys released in May and in June of this year.

 The Liberals trail in third place, with the support of 20 percent of Canadians (unchanged). Nine percent support the Bloc Québécois (up 2 points) and five percent support the Green party (unchanged).

 

www.environics.com

Ippurigakko

Yeah nicky and Jeff already did post it in couple month ago

NorthReport

If this, and if that.

And if the earth was flat, people would fall off the edge.

Meanwhile back to reality and the NDP is in 1st place in the latest poll.

Eric Grenier is no Nate Silver.

Grenier's anti-NDP political biases show up in just about ever article or so-called analysis he does, and the Huffington Post is basically a Liberal rag.

mark_alfred

Eric Grenier, from 308.com analysed the results of a recent Forum poll in a Huffington Post article.  Basically it's a three way race when party supporters are polled.  When the poll mentioned Trudeau, the Liberal numbers inflated putting them ahead.  However, Grenier expects, should Trudeau be chosen leader, that these numbers would settle back down and give us the situation of a three way horse race.  So, at this point it looks like the next election could be quite exciting.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Bang on NR!

adma

Though if it *were* a three-way situation, it sure would be interesting if one of the parties wound up 3rd place in votes, but 1st place in seats (has that ever happened?)

Brachina

Justin is a Zepplin, he maybe floating high right now, but he's full of hot gas, otherwise empty and with the right spark will crash and burn.

Justin's popularity is a mile wide and a millmetre deep, while Mulcair is working on building something far more solid and deep. Mulcair is working towards the long term Justin is working towards immiadate ego gratification.

As for Eric I think people are being hard on him, at least he acknowlsged that Trudeau's popularity is unlike to last at these levels, which is more then many in the MSM is willing to admit.

socialdemocrati...

The 308 has substantially improved. Not because they're projections are any better, but because he's finally asking the right questions about the polls themselves:

But there is something to note about this poll, similar to what I highlighted in Forum's last federal poll. The real problem is that Forum does not included unweighted and weighted samples in their reports (and they are not alone), which makes it difficult to determine what is actually going on. For instance, Forum says on one of its charts that the number of undecideds in this poll was 13%. But it also says that the total sample was 1,102 Ontarians and that, on the voting intentions question, the sample of respondents was 1,047. If the numbers of undecideds is really 13%, then the number of decided/leaning respondents who answered the voting intentions question should have been 959.

And on the question of how respondents voted in the last election, the numbers are off of the actual results - most strongly for the New Democrats, who were five points below their election result. By my rough calculation of Forum's numbers, if the sample was weighted by past voting behaviour the PC lead would be reduced to three points instead of five.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/11/ontario-race-remains-between-pc...

 

I know this is a provincial poll, but it reaffirms the problems I pointed out with the other federal forum poll. They're underpolling New Democrats.

NorthReport

This most recent poll from Abacus (Sep 24) showing NDP tied with the Cons at 53% and the LPC at 17% has some good news for Mulcair

http://abacusdata.ca/2012/09/24/federal-politics-conservatives-and-ndp-t...

Tom Mulcair’s personal ratings improved slightly since August with 36% of Canadians saying they have a favourable impression of the NDP leader (up 5) while those viewing him unfavourably declined by 5.  He remains the only federal leader to have a net positive favourable rating.

socialdemocrati...

NorthReport wrote:

This most recent poll from Abacus (Sep 24) showing NDP tied with the Cons at 53% and the LPC at 17% has some good news for Mulcair

http://abacusdata.ca/2012/09/24/federal-politics-conservatives-and-ndp-t...

Tom Mulcair’s personal ratings improved slightly since August with 36% of Canadians saying they have a favourable impression of the NDP leader (up 5) while those viewing him unfavourably declined by 5.  He remains the only federal leader to have a net positive favourable rating.

And one very interesting thing...

The Liberals poll at 17%. And when you break it down by constituency, they're consistently in that ball park. Renter vs. Homeowner. Urban vs. Rural. All different levels of income. The Liberals consistently poll less than 20%. (Sometimes closer to 10%.)

The last area where Liberals overperform is with those born outside of Canada. They poll at nearly 30%. No other consistuency comes close. The NDP has some work to do there.

Second most interesting thing: there's not much difference between union and non-union households when it comes to voting NDP/Conservative/Liberal, and THAT is also something that needs a lot of work.

felixr

The NDP carries the epithet of "being too close to unions" but doesn't get union members votes. I don't think this is a coincidence. While union vs. non-union may help the NDP in some pockets, I think more union members vote in line with their (higher) incomes and other demographic factors, than their union status.

jerrym

In 308.com's analysis of the October 27 poll results his seat projections show strong growth for the NDP in BC, Prairie, Ontario and Atlantic seats although there is a substantial dropoff in Quebec seats. While such projections are to be taken with significant caution, what it does show if this were to bear out anywhere this is that the NDP would now have substantial support in every region of Canada and since it would only be 6 MPs less than the Cons  (124 C0ns to 118 NDP) quite capable of claiming power with Liberal support in the Commons while claiming it truly represents all regions of Canada. Since Eric's predictions tend to favour incumbents it is quite possible that these polling numbers would give the NDP the lead in elected MPs. We a long way from an election and these numbers are not that important, but it is still nice to see things moving in the right direction.

"The Liberals were in front in Atlantic Canada with 37%, narrowly edging out the NDP at 36%. The Conservatives were down 12 points to 22%.

With these numbers, the Conservatives would squeak out a bare plurality with 124 seats on the boundaries of the proposed 338-seat map. The New Democrats would win 118 seats, the Liberals 88, the Bloc Québécois seven, and the Greens one.

The NDP lost out on the chance to come out on top in the seat count due to the Tories' advantage (in both votes and geography) in Ontario and the close race in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. But with a combined 206 seats, the Liberals and NDP could likely come to some agreement.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

 

David Young

Why do people automatically assume that the Liberals would support the NDP in a showdown with the Conservatives under such a scenario?

Given the way the Liberals voted time and time again to support the Conservatives between 2008 and 2011, there is just as much chance that the Liberals would offer their support to the Conservatives once again.

I would almost be willing to bet that a substantial portion of the Liberal caucus would rather split from the party than support an NDP government.

 

felixr

David Young wrote:

Why do people automatically assume that the Liberals would support the NDP in a showdown with the Conservatives under such a scenario?

Given the way the Liberals voted time and time again to support the Conservatives between 2008 and 2011, there is just as much chance that the Liberals would offer their support to the Conservatives once again.

I would almost be willing to bet that a substantial portion of the Liberal caucus would rather split from the party than support an NDP government.

My money is on the Liberals being closer to the Conservatives than the NDP, in a minority situation. Some MPS, like Scott Brison, are completely slavish in their dedication to the corporate lobbyists.

janfromthebruce

And that is exactly it - the last thing they want to do is prop the NDP in govt and essentially give them a boast in showing Canadians that the NDP can govern.

And although the Libs are one point ahead in Alantic Canada that is statistically insignificant and it would really depend on the vote splits and regions of support.

Winston

janfromthebruce wrote:

And that is exactly it - the last thing they want to do is prop the NDP in govt and essentially give them a boast in showing Canadians that the NDP can govern.

And although the Libs are one point ahead in Alantic Canada that is statistically insignificant and it would really depend on the vote splits and regions of support.

The NDP would need a very large lead indeed over the Liberals in Atlantic Canada to win the seat count.  Our vote tends to be extremely concentrated in the seats of our popular incumbents, with a lot of vote wasteage.  Having all of our votes work to give Peter Stoffer, Jack Harris and Yvon Godin even more massive super-majorities will not put us over the top anywhere else.

mmphosis

jerrym wrote:

In 308.com's analysis of the October 27 poll results his seat projections show strong growth for the NDP in BC, Prairie, Ontario and Atlantic seats although there is a substantial dropoff in Quebec seats. While such projections are to be taken with significant caution, what it does show if this were to bear out anywhere this is that the NDP would now have substantial support in every region of Canada and since it would only be 6 MPs less than the Cons  (124 C0ns to 118 NDP) quite capable of claiming power with Liberal support in the Commons while claiming it truly represents all regions of Canada. Since Eric's predictions tend to favour incumbents it is quite possible that these polling numbers would give the NDP the lead in elected MPs. We a long way from an election and these numbers are not that important, but it is still nice to see things moving in the right direction.

"The Liberals were in front in Atlantic Canada with 37%, narrowly edging out the NDP at 36%. The Conservatives were down 12 points to 22%.

With these numbers, the Conservatives would squeak out a bare plurality with 124 seats on the boundaries of the proposed 338-seat map. The New Democrats would win 118 seats, the Liberals 88, the Bloc Québécois seven, and the Greens one.

The NDP lost out on the chance to come out on top in the seat count due to the Tories' advantage (in both votes and geography) in Ontario and the close race in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. But with a combined 206 seats, the Liberals and NDP could likely come to some agreement.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

 

So the NDP and the Bloc could form the government as a coalition 118 NDP + 7 BLoc = 125 vs only 124 Cons.

Brachina

The Bloc would never agree to join a coalition, even when the Liberals and NDP were trying to create a coalition the Bloc supported and refused to actual join it.

Plus I'm not certain the Bloc will around next time, they might be, but why bother. Paille is no Gilles.

mark_alfred

mmphosis wrote:

So the NDP and the Bloc could form the government as a coalition 118 NDP + 7 BLoc = 125 vs only 124 Cons.

 

The Cons + Libs would have more seats than the NDP + Bloc.

Sean in Ottawa

Reminder over 99% of people refuse to answer polls. The 1% who do give their time becuase they are motivated. Before an election motivations are more equal among the parties and polling gets more accurate. Far from elections parties are not motivated to the same degree. A party in leadership mode would be expected to have a more motivated base for getting polling registered. A poll that compares one candidate to the field is even more likely to attract attention. Any Justin supporters would be falling over themselves to get polled as it helps their candidate whereas other parties' supporters are more likely to consider what else they might want to do with their time.

Sean in Ottawa

mark_alfred wrote:

mmphosis wrote:

So the NDP and the Bloc could form the government as a coalition 118 NDP + 7 BLoc = 125 vs only 124 Cons.

 

The Cons + Libs would have more seats than the NDP + Bloc.

Liberals rarely vote in minority parliaments as it could cause an election. ;-)

Sean in Ottawa

More seriously-- I would not make strong assumptions about who the Liberals would support in a minority parliament. Supporting either party would be a disaster for them-- to support the NDP crowns the NDP and to support the Conservatives would have them lose considerable support to the NDP.

The most likely scenario is that the Liberals do not bring a party to power but merely tolerate them there. In other words whichever party meets the House first has a reasonable chance of staying in power as the Liberals will be reluctant to bring them down to support another party. There are two rules that apply here: The outgoing party has the right to meet parliament first which implies the Cons have first kick at the can. However if the NDP had more seats then tradition is for an outgoing party that has not only lost a majority but also lost a plurality to resign and then the one with the most seats gets a shot -- but legally the last government does not have to hand over power if they choose to face the House and have a vote.

In this circumstance the Liberals could choose to keep their heads down and support whichever party meets the House first (or tolerate through abstention) or they could hold talks with both parties looking for the "best deal" they can get publicizing that they would work with either and simply want to secure the closest deal to their program.

So saying this-- until we know which party has the most seats and the dynamics including how many seats are between the Liberals and the second place party, we would not know what they would do and speculation is a series of  "ifs." Knowing the actual election platform of all three parties is another variable and so too would be the leadership situation (if any of the leaders resigned).

mark_alfred

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
In other words whichever party meets the House first has a reasonable chance of staying in power as the Liberals will be reluctant to bring them down to support another party.

 

I think you're right.  It would be typical of the stand-for-nothing sit-on-their-hands Liberal Party of Canada.

NorthReport

Now back to reality, and these are the latest polls.

Canadians will have a choice in the next election whether to vote to continue the policies of the right like Trudeau and Harper or to go with the NDP.

The most recent of the Liberal Party of Canada's Prime Ministers put his own companies offshore to avoid Canadian income taxes, Canada's labour laws, and Canada's environmental protection laws. If that is the kind of reprersentation you want in Ottawa by all means vote Liberal.

Times have changed since the Trudeau-Chretien era, and there is a new kid in town - his name is Mulcair. Laughing

 

Mulcai-led NDP is in 1st place in the latest poll, and  in 1st place or tied for 1st place in 3 of the 5 most recent polls - not too shabby! Smile

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% /

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 

NorthReport

Canadian polling firm's ratings, based on the order of accuracy*, for their 3 most recent polls, if available, leading up to the May 2, 2011 federal election:

EKOS = -6

Forum Research = -7

Nanos Research = -7

Angus Reid = -9

Ipsos Reid = -9

Harris Decima = -13

Leger Marketing = -15

Environics = -16

Abacus = -18

Compas = -18

Innovative Research Group = -22

 

 

The 3 most recent poll results, if available, leading up to the last federal election held May 2, 2011

Popular Vote

Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs

GE / 31 / 40 / 19

Forum / 33 / 36 / 19

Forum / 33 / 35 /19

Forum / 31 / 34 / 22

Average / 32 / 35 / 20

Difference / -1 / -5 / -1 = -7

EKOS / 31 / 34 / 21

EKOS 31 / 35 / 20

EKOS / 30 / 35 / 20

Average / 31 / 35 / 20

Difference / 0 / -5 / -1 = -6

Nanos / 32 / 37 / 21

Nanos / 31 / 37 / 23

Nanos / 31 / 36 / 22

Average / 31 / 37 / 22 

Difference / 0 / -3 / -3 = -7

Har Dec / 30 / 36 / 19

Har Dec / 30 / 35 / 22

Har Dec / 19 /36 / 28

Average / 26 / 36 / 23

Difference / -5 / -4 / -4 = -13

Abacus / 32 / 37 / 18

Abacus / 20 / 37 / 29

Abacus / 20 / 36 / 27

Average / 24 / 37 / 27

Difference / -7 / -3 / -8 = -18 

Compas / 26 / 46 / 17

Compas / 16 / 45 / 24

Average / 21 / 46 / 21

Difference / -10 / -6 / -2 = -18

Angus Reid / 33 / 37 / 19

Angus Reid / 30 / 35 / 22

Angus Reid / 25 / 36 / 25

Average / 29 / 36 / 22

Differece / -2 / -4 / -3 = -9

Leger / 31 / 36 / 21

Leger / 22 / 38 / 26

Leger / 18 / 37 / 26

Average / 24 / 37 / 24

Difference / -7 / -3 / -5 = - 15

Ipsos Reid / 33 / 38 / 18

Ipsos Reid / 24 / 43 / 21

Ipsos Reid / 19 / 41 / 26

Average / 25 / 41 / 22

Difference / -6 / 0 / -3 = -9

Inn Res Gp / 24 / 38 / 25

Inn Res Gp / 17 / 39 / 28

Inn Res Gp / 17 / 39 / 28

Average / 19 / 39 / 27

Difference /  -12 / -2 / -8 = -22

Envir / 25 / 39 / 22

Envir / 22 / 39 / 24

Envir / 20 / 38 / 25

Average / 22 / 39 / 24

Difference / -9 / -2 / -5 = -16

*Using the averages of their last 3 polls helps to avoid "herding" which means bringing their results more in line with other pollsters close to the actual election date

9656

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Tories 36, NDP 29, Libs 21. Libs up to 22, and at 21% in PQ; NDP down in PQ to 30%. Sigh. Of course, now the HP is writing about a Red Wave. Tom went down in favorability as well, and the LPC is licking its chops. I wish the National Party would get off its butt and start making its case. What the hell is it waiting for?

NorthReport

Take a look above at Abacus's polling record leading up to the last election.

NorthReport

There is a bit of an analysis above showing the accuracy, or lack thereof, of the various pollsters, in the run up to the last federal election.

And it is also worthwhile to check out the political connections of the principals involved with the various polling firms.

I wonder what the political connections are for Abacus. Wink

Quote:
David Coletto leads Abacus Data’s team of research consultants and strategists, delivering strategic advice and research design expertise to some of Canada’s leading corporations, advocacy groups, and political leaders. Coletto has over eight years experience working in the marketing research industry.

He has conducted research studies for organizations in many sectors including pharmaceutical, transportation, financial services, educational, natural resource, telecommunications, media, arts and cultural, tourism, and retail. He has also advised elected officials and senior-level decision makers at the federal, provincial, and municipal government levels.

abacus.ca

 

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% /

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 

Brachina

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Tories 36, NDP 29, Libs 21. Libs up to 22, and at 21% in PQ; NDP down in PQ to 30%. Sigh. Of course, now the HP is writing about a Red Wave. Tom went down in favorability as well, and the LPC is licking its chops. I wish the National Party would get off its butt and start making its case. What the hell is it waiting for?

I agree AC, not to mention Tory attack ads. What's the NDP excutive doing sitting on thier hands instead of unleasing an ad campaign?

felixr

The party has to walk a fine line between fiscal prudence (i.e. banking as much money in the election warchest and ramping up the fundraising campaign) and defending Tom. I think that with these poll numbers dipping down to 29% while the Tories maintain a 7% lead and the Liberals are catching up is that very line being crossed.

Harper and the Conservatives have been focusing on negative ads without much effect. For this reason the NDP should (continue to) go positive. The ads should focus on Mulcair's record. They should do this for several reasons: 1) It fits with the theme of "introducing" the new leader 2) Mulcair is a problem for the NDP right now because his personal poll numbers have not caught up to the Layton heights 3) Political record is exactly Justin Trudeau's Achilles heel. Set up the frame early and watch Justin struggle with the fit. There are also great one-liners in Mulcair's record along the lines of, "as Liberal cabinet minister, Mulcair wasn't afraid to stand up to his own premier when it came to matters of principle..." (this last line could be waaaaay better written, but the idea is simple, the Liberals really stink but Mulcair doesn't because he's stood up to them, he's actually stood up for the things that they only say they believe in.

NorthReport

So who is Canada's Gallup?

 

Gallup is very upset at Nate Silver

The polling firm complains operations like FiveThirtyEight could spoil polling for everyone

It is impossible to read this as anything other than an attack on Nate Silver, who is by far the most prominent aggregator and analyzer of others’ polls currently operating today. And it simply reeks of sour grapes. During the campaign year, Silver consistently pointed out that Gallup’s results were oddly inconsistent with what other pollsters were finding. And he was right — Gallup got it wrong. It is not inappropriate to point that out. But Gallup presumes too much when it effectively threatens to take its surveys home and just stop playing.

OK, Nate Silver didn’t pick up the phone and call voters himself. And yes, it’s true, if all the polling organizations stop polling, Nate Silver will be out of a job. He might have to go back to crunching baseball stats. But he’s a smart guy, with an impressive track record. He’ll do fine. It seems foolish to blame him for crunching data that is publicly available for anyone to crunch. If he wasn’t good at what he does, he’d still be another anonymous poster hanging around the DailyKos forums. He’s been rewarded for getting things right.

Gallup faces a more unhappy future. If the company keeps getting the numbers wrong, the market will punish it. At that point, Gallup won’t be able to blame its sorry fate on anyone but its own incompetence.

 

Brachina

They should do what they doing for an Ad campaign what they are doing for the bielections, you can donate to the bielection campaigns instead of general renvue. They should allow us to donate directly to a Positive Ad campaign.

Aristotleded24

felixr wrote:
The party has to walk a fine line between fiscal prudence (i.e. banking as much money in the election warchest and ramping up the fundraising campaign) and defending Tom.

Exactly. I'm not advocating that the NDP do nothing, but the NDP can't beat the Conservatives at their own game of advertising. For one, the Conservatives have far more money, and two, a battle of negative advertising would just turn people off, which is the exact opposite of what Jack did when he was leader. Plus, if the NDP responds with pro-Mulcair ads, that just shows that the Conservatives have got to them. The NDP needs to be far more strategic about its response.

Sean in Ottawa

I agree-- not just to save money for the warchest but also for a pre-election ad buy after the Liberals have done their leadership convention. Anything now would be wasteful (ads).

That said the NDP can be organizing other things that could get earned media.

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NorthReport wrote:

So who is Canada's Gallup?

 

Gallup is very upset at Nate Silver

The polling firm complains operations like FiveThirtyEight could spoil polling for everyone

It is impossible to read this as anything other than an attack on Nate Silver, who is by far the most prominent aggregator and analyzer of others’ polls currently operating today. And it simply reeks of sour grapes. During the campaign year, Silver consistently pointed out that Gallup’s results were oddly inconsistent with what other pollsters were finding. And he was right — Gallup got it wrong. It is not inappropriate to point that out. But Gallup presumes too much when it effectively threatens to take its surveys home and just stop playing.

OK, Nate Silver didn’t pick up the phone and call voters himself. And yes, it’s true, if all the polling organizations stop polling, Nate Silver will be out of a job. He might have to go back to crunching baseball stats. But he’s a smart guy, with an impressive track record. He’ll do fine. It seems foolish to blame him for crunching data that is publicly available for anyone to crunch. If he wasn’t good at what he does, he’d still be another anonymous poster hanging around the DailyKos forums. He’s been rewarded for getting things right.

Gallup faces a more unhappy future. If the company keeps getting the numbers wrong, the market will punish it. At that point, Gallup won’t be able to blame its sorry fate on anyone but its own incompetence.

 

 

Who is Canada's Gallup, its a tossup. Nik Nanos or Strategic Strategies, or maybe to a lesser dergree, Grenier. Take you pick.

NorthReport

What's with Harper not being able to balance the books - not a very good track record for the Cons who supposedly pride themselves on their economic prowess.

 

 

NorthReport

See a previous post for polling history leading up to the last election.

Nate Silver pays a lot of attention to herding, and we should as well

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% 

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 

Ippurigakko

friggen..... 38% to 30% (-8) and Lib 18% to 26% (+8) since June......

Stockholm

The Ipsos poll is very consistent with other polls lately. I'm actually cheered that the new "floor" for the NDP is second place at 30% even after weeks of non-stop 24 hour a day seven days a week hagiographical, fawning coverage of Justin Trudeau.

The headline really ought to be "Libs still 3rd despite weeks of media hype over Justin Trudeau"!

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