latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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Ippurigakko

National Post show Ipsos-Reid graphic says

18-34 youth toward NDP 43% and LIB only 24% and CON 22% it make me think they dont care about or wont vote for Justinmania!

 

 

janfromthebruce

Thanks Ipp for posting that. I'm with Stock on the NDP holding 2nd place with non stop Trudeau Jr. mania by MSM.

And after all the fawning by the media, Trudeau takes a hissy fit when one reporter was persistent in her questioning - his narisium was showing there, and his disdain for those he perceives beneath him.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

What are you referring to Jan?

NorthReport

With all due respect, if we don't agree with other politicians, let's stop attacking their personalities, and focus our disagreements on their respective political party's policies. 

jjuares

NorthReport wrote:

With all due respect, if we don't agree with other politicians, let's stop attacking their personalities, and focus our disagreements on their respective political party's policies. 

I used to believe that a politician's character ( I prefer this word over personality beause it refers to a differnt set of a persons skills) was out of bounds and we should only talk policy. I no longer hold to that position for several reasons:

1.We live in a representative democracy in which we place our trust in leaders who will make decisions on policies and events for the next four to five years. We have no way of knowing what events will occur. We do know that leaders decisions will be influenced by their ideological beliefs, temperment, background etc. Sometimes character is destiny.

2. The Canadian PM is extremely powerful in our system and his leadership style is an important component of his government's success or failure. I would want a PM who wants competent, strong ministers who he would have the interpersonal skills to deal with.   Sadly, some leaders choose bumbling sycophants because they are unable to deal with strong colleagues. Personnel selection is very much a reflection of character.

3. Trudeau at this point is a special case in point. He has only begun to put policies (at least in regards to marijuana) in the shop window. Yet, the Liberals and their supporters in the media have put him forward as the antidote  to Harper almost soley on his character. If his charcter virtues are a selling point, then any of his perceived flaws must be considered fair game for criticism.

So while I think we should be very careful in looking at the character of our leaders to decide if they warrant our support, I don't believe we should criticize the many Canadians who do consider this as A factor when casting their vote.

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

With all due respect, if we don't agree with other politicians, let's stop attacking their personalities, and focus our disagreements on their respective political party's policies. 

Great idea. Polices that help create well paying jobs and reduce the preponderence of low paying jobs will do a lot more for people than most anything else. If the NDP can convince Canadians that they are the party that can best help produce a future of well paying jobs, the future will bode well for the NDP. And better yet, if the NDP ends up producing an economy of well paying jobs, the future will bode well for Canadians.

David Young

Stockholm wrote:

The Ipsos poll is very consistent with other polls lately. I'm actually cheered that the new "floor" for the NDP is second place at 30% even after weeks of non-stop 24 hour a day seven days a week hagiographical, fawning coverage of Justin Trudeau.

The headline really ought to be "Libs still 3rd despite weeks of media hype over Justin Trudeau"!

In an unbiased world, that's what the headline should be, Stockholm.

But since we live in a world where bias sells more newspapers, what can we do?

I still like the suggestion someone had here for a T-Shirt...

A Vote For Trudeau Is A Vote For Harper!

 

mark_alfred

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.

NorthReport

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE /

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% 

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /--

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

What do people think will be diffent this time if the vote LPC again? I simply don't get it!

janfromthebruce

You know I would really wait this one out and not buy into the corporate media games of ensuring just two corporate parties for electors to choose from.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Jan, your comments remind me of when I was a young Subbie on board ship, and worrying about things, the old Chief would say "Steady Sir"!

Thanks.

janfromthebruce

Kiss

NorthReport

--

Ippurigakko

forum on nov 19

rae vs trudeau
CON 33% (+2) vs 30% (+1)
NDP 28% (-4) vs 23% (-1)
LIB 28% (+1) vs 39% (no change)
BQ 6% (=) vs 6% (+1)
GRN 4% (=) vs 2% (=)

youth still going NDP 35% and only 16% Liberal vs if trudeau leader there is 27% Liberal (with Conservative vote splitting)
and 33% NDP-leaning! it is proof they no desire Trudeau that what over 40 yrs old attract him. =S

And i saw west would back to return Conservative if Trudeau leader on forum table.

 

https://forumresearch.ca/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/33520_Can...

mark_alfred

Just updating the comment I made below.  If what I said below about Ontario also happens in Quebec (Liberals taking votes from NDP), then that could be a problem.

 

mark_alfred wrote:

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.

socialdemocrati...

mark_alfred wrote:

Just updating the comment I made below.  If what I said below about Ontario also happens in Quebec (Liberals taking votes from NDP), then that could be a problem.

 

mark_alfred wrote:

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.

Excellent point that's often missed in the raw numbers.

Even in the worst polls, the NDP are basically holding onto Quebec. That's 59 seats: more than half the NDP caucus.

The NDP seats in the rest of Canada, around 3/4 are holdovers from 2008. 2/3 are holdovers from 2006. These are safe seats.

As long as we hold onto most of Quebec, we're basically safe. There's enough safe seats outside Quebec that it would be a stretch to lose more than 10 or 20 total.

Short version:

If the Liberals gain in Ontario, the Conservatives lose. Not the NDP.

But if the Liberals gain in Quebec, the country back to a two party neoliberal consensus, and we're in big trouble.

Ippurigakko

Liberals gain is always in every autumn and winter like last year 2011, NDP always loss in every winter but NDP most gain in every spring-summer.

 

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201211/1642-trudeau-continues-d...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

You know, I am starting to feel better about the Libs picking Trudeau. The lights are on but no one is home. If you look at the link Lou Ahab provided in another thread where Trudeau was speaking outside the House, it is clear how stupid sounding he is. We have Tom Mulcair. It isn't even close.

Aristotleded24

Ippurigakko wrote:
Liberals gain is always in every autumn and winter like last year 2011, NDP always loss in every winter but NDP most gain in every spring-summer.

Perhaps it's because the NDP is trying to fight global warming and the Liberals allowed it to continue!Wink

janfromthebruce

mark_alfred wrote:

Just updating the comment I made below.  If what I said below about Ontario also happens in Quebec (Liberals taking votes from NDP), then that could be a problem.

 

mark_alfred wrote:

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.

Well actually we did 2x better than the Liberals in Ontario and won 22 seats in comparison to Liberals who won 11. Furthermore, we did extremely well in 2nd place finishes.

NorthReport

Headlines I have seen:

Generation Y Favours NDP Over All Other Political Parties

 

Ippurigakko

 

it is true, I am Generation Y! (1987), lots of youth most favours NDP than other parties. same thing in world, common world youth favours left wing party than centre or right.

Brachina
mark_alfred

Liberal arrogance just won't die.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

What gets me about some of the comments on that page is how the Libs posting think that this is in the bag for them with JT as leader. They assume that people don't think, especially younger kids and all JT have to do is to wave his curly locks. Ridiculous.

The other thing I am noticing is how mad LPC types or people who claim they are LPC types become when you tell them no deal on a merger. I have been called a fool and told that when Harper is re-elected, it will be my fault. I say vote NDP and they say the NDP will never get enough votes to become anything other then a rump party. So what happened in 2011?

Talk about being full of themselves.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Add to my comment the Lib types who say the NDP isn't competent to govern. Never mind the actual record of Lib or Tory Federal governance. NAFTA and the MMT settlement, how did that work out for Canadians, for example? Eh? They answer while there are factors beyond the governments control, like gobalization, as though to imply that governments can't do anything to protect national interest. If that is true, then why the hell even bother having elections. Why don't we just move Parliment to the Caymens then, and make it into a numbered company?

JKR

Arthur Cramer wrote:

The other thing I am noticing is how mad LPC types or people who claim they are LPC types become when you tell them no deal on a merger. I have been called a fool and told that when Harper is re-elected, it will be my fault. I say vote NDP and they say the NDP will never get enough votes to become anything other then a rump party.

In my experience, most people who support a centre-left merger aren't attached to any particular party. They just want to see Canada implement progressive policies and don't really care which party is winning the game of politics. Progressives see that 60%+ don't support the Conservatives but because of vote-splitting the Conservatives have a majority government and have complete control of policy making.

Here is a real life example of why people support a left of centre merger:

Tories Block Bid to Make Cheaper Medicines for Poor People

Quote:

A private member’s bill sponsored by New Democrat MP Hélène Laverdière that aimed to correct the many flaws in Canada’s Access to Medicines Regime went down to a narrow defeat Wednesday evening when all but seven members of the Conservative caucus voted against it.

...

That sent the bill down to defeat, by a count of 141 to 148. The New Democrats, the Liberals and all other opposition MPs voted for it.

...

Members of groups that lobbied MPs to support Bill C-398 crowded into the visitors’ galleries of the House of Commons on Wednesday to watch the vote. Many were near tears when it became clear their efforts were for naught.

Pat Evans of the Grandmothers Advocacy Network said her organization and other worked very hard for the bill “and we are just absolutely distressed.”

...

The people who will suffer, Mr. Elliott said, “are the men, women and children who are not going to get medicines that will keep them alive that we might have otherwise been able to supply. I think that’s reprehensible. I think that’s disgusting. And I don’t think it’s what Canadians want from their Parliament and their parliamentarians.”

...

“It is so profoundly sad that they couldn’t rise above petty politics,” Ms. Laverdière said. “There are two types of people who are really losing this evening. First are the people we could have helped with the bill.

People have every right to expect that politicians and political parties put the interests of the people ahead of petty politics and they have every right to want that political parties representing 60% of voters have more power than a political party representing less than 40% of voters.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I  think that we should learn from the Bolivarian movement and move away from our top down parliamentarian system to a more local and community based decision making.

However that is not going to happen anytime soon so we need at minimum a proper PR system so that Canadian voices do not have to be subject to only two choices between parties with no particular ideology except a mushy definition of progressive.  I have been involved in elections since 1972 and in ever election I have had Liberals tell me that I was just splitting the vote and we had to stop the right by voting Liberal. I am immune to those argument.  I will note that one of the traditional Liberal talking points about the NDP is that they were not fit to govern the country because they could not elect MP's from Quebec.  I haven't heard that one lately.

Politics like most systems in nature thrives on diversity not as a monoculture.  Any move to reduce the number of parties in the H of C is a retrograde move IMO.  Harper would not be in power if we did not have our FPTP system.  After nearly 150 years the BNA Act is still ensuring that the elite business leaders control our electoral system.

mark_alfred

NorthReport wrote:

Headlines I have seen:

Generation Y Favours NDP Over All Other Political Parties

That's good.  Surprises me a little, though.  While most young people I meet are more in favour of individual rights (like gay marriage, marijuana legalization, legal rights for sex trade workers, etc.) than older generations are, I also find they are more resistant to ideas involving collective action and collective protection like unions, universal health care, prisoners' rights, etc.  Over and over again I've heard, "I'm fine, I don't need protection of ...[insert any number of left wing social democratic ideas here], but I do wanna be free to do as I please." 

Disclaimer:  I'm not basing these observations on a huge sample size.  I'm glad that Gen Y prefers the NDP.  Still, it surprises me given my interactions with some youth.

JKR

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Politics like most systems in nature thrives on diversity not as a monoculture.  Any move to reduce the number of parties in the H of C is a retrograde move IMO.  Harper would not be in power if we did not have our FPTP system. 

Hopefully the NDP can form the next government in 2015 and implement PR. Our system desperately needs greater political pluralism and greater respect for diverse political opinions.  But my worry is that the new expanded 338 seat House of Commons will allow the Conservatives to maintain majority government status with less than 35% of the vote. If the Conservatives win yet another phony majority government in 2015 with less than less than 39% of the vote a political merger of the centre-left parties may be unavoidable.

During the last 6 years, because of FPTP, we have been governed by the most right-wing government in the fully developed world. During this time, opinion poll after opinion poll has had them hovering between just 32 - 35%. Nowhere in the fully developed world has a party been able to maintain power with such low levels of support. Our FPTP system coupled with the existence of 4 centre-left parties has created a uniquely deplorable situation in Canada. In the views of the world Canada has become the world's leading neo-conservative country. Our positions on areas such as the Middle-East conflict and climate change are unbelievably right-wing but how many people in the world know our government has the support of just roughly only 1/3rd of Canadian voters?

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Do Greece, Spain and Portugal count as part of the developed world?  It didn't matter which centre left government people in those countries voted for the banking technocrats run their economy.  I do not trust the Liberal party to govern on behalf of the Canadian people.  They have always governed on behalf of the corporate elite. Electing a centrist government will merely be window dressing and do nothing of substance. It will lead to a less proactive government but one that would still take its direction from the Mark Carney's of the world.

As well not all Liberals are "progressive" and not all Greens are "progressive."  What does a socialist and a Tory with a composer have in common?  To me not being Harper is not a reason to vote for a party that would so centrist as to stand for nothing excerpt political expediency. 

Robo

mark_alfred wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:
... Well actually we did 2x better than the Liberals in Ontario and won 22 seats in comparison to Liberals who won 11. Furthermore, we did extremely well in 2nd place finishes.

True.  But the NDP place third in the proportion of votes given in Ontario (granted, a close third), with the Liberals second. ...

In the May 2011 federal election, NDP candidates in Ontario got 1,416,537 votes, while Liberal candidates in Ontario got 1,400,280 votes. As Jan noted, the NDP vote was more "efficient" in terms of producing seats for the NDP, but the NDP nevertheless was not in third in the popular vote.

JKR

kropotkin1951 wrote:

As well not all Liberals are "progressive" and not all Greens are "progressive."  What does a socialist and a Tory with a composer have in common?  To me not being Harper is not a reason to vote for a party that would so centrist as to stand for nothing excerpt political expediency. 

Isn't the NDP also a centrist party? The only way a party can win an FPTP election is through becomng a "big-tent" party. That's why the NDP has been watering down its policies lately. What's the difference between Mulcair's NDP and Rae's Liberals? Four percentage points in the corporate tax rate? Is the Manitoba NDP government leftist? Is The Nova Scotia NDP government leftist?

Manitoba's child poverty an 'appalling' 20 per cent; 2nd worst in all of Canada - Winnipeg Free Press

Social Assistance in Nova Scotia Stagnates under the Dexter GovernmentNot enough to live on and no plans to change

NDP'ers have to ask themselves why NDP governments have failed to produce results disimilar from governments of other stripes?

If the only way to implement PR is through cooperation between the NDP, Liberals, and Greens, I'd be all for it.

And isn't isn't it about time provincial NDP governments implemented PR? Are provincial NDP governments afraid of allowing socialists to start up their own parties when they are dissatisfied with the status quo?

JKR

dp

PrairieDemocrat15

Is there not one other way to defeat the Cons? Couldn't the New Democrats and Liberals come up with an agreement not to compete with each other? Like what Dion and May did in 08. They would look at each riding and estimate which party will have the best chance of winning and that party would run the single candidate under their banner. The NDP would run in most of BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario and the Liberals would run in Calgary, the 405 region, Newfoundland, ect. Back in the 1920's the Liberals and Progressives (farmers' party) used this stategy to decimate the Conservatives. In Manitoba the Cons got 40% of the vote did not win a single seat.

The Conservatives would obviously cry fowl and try to make an issue out of it, but I have no doubt that Harper would still be defeated with such a strategy. The new government could then implement PR or preferential voting to stop vote-splitting. No merger needed.

NorthReport

Just reflecting on the recent by-elections, particularly in Ontario, the province that everyone needs, to win the next general election

This is bad news for the Liberals, as in spite of Trudeau's visit, the LPC lost support in Durham, which has always been a Con-Lib battle in the past.

Good news though for the Mulcair-led NDP.

 

Date / Event / Riding / NDP / N-Change Cons / C-Change Libs / L-Change / Grns / G-Change

2011 / GE / Durham / 21% / --- /  / 55% / --- / 18% / --- / 5%

2012 / BY / Durham / 27% / +6% /  51% / - 4% /  17% / - 1% / 4% / -1%

 


 

mark_alfred

janfromthebruce wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

Just updating the comment I made below.  If what I said below about Ontario also happens in Quebec (Liberals taking votes from NDP), then that could be a problem.

 

mark_alfred wrote:

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.

Well actually we did 2x better than the Liberals in Ontario and won 22 seats in comparison to Liberals who won 11. Furthermore, we did extremely well in 2nd place finishes.

True.  But the NDP place third in the proportion of votes given in Ontario (granted, a close third), with the Liberals second.  So, losing votes to the Liberals in Ont would likely affect the Cons more than the NDP, since the NDP vote is concentrated in various regions here.  Losing votes to the Liberals in Quebec could be disastrous for the NDP, however.  I don't anticipate that happening, though.

 

[later edit]  Well, I checked this, and discovered that I am wrong.  The NDP did come second in both seats won and popular vote in Ontario.

mark_alfred

Robo wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:
... Well actually we did 2x better than the Liberals in Ontario and won 22 seats in comparison to Liberals who won 11. Furthermore, we did extremely well in 2nd place finishes.

True.  But the NDP place third in the proportion of votes given in Ontario (granted, a close third), with the Liberals second. ...

In the May 2011 federal election, NDP candidates in Ontario got 1,416,537 votes, while Liberal candidates in Ontario got 1,400,280 votes. As Jan noted, the NDP vote was more "efficient" in terms of producing seats for the NDP, but the NDP nevertheless was not in third in the popular vote.

Thanks for pointing that out.  Yes, it does seem I was mistaken.

felixr

PrairieDemocrat15 wrote:

Is there not one other way to defeat the Cons? Couldn't the New Democrats and Liberals come up with an agreement not to compete with each other? Like what Dion and May did in 08. They would look at each riding and estimate which party will have the best chance of winning and that party would run the single candidate under their banner. The NDP would run in most of BC, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario and the Liberals would run in Calgary, the 405 region, Newfoundland, ect. Back in the 1920's the Liberals and Progressives (farmers' party) used this stategy to decimate the Conservatives. In Manitoba the Cons got 40% of the vote did not win a single seat.

The Conservatives would obviously cry fowl and try to make an issue out of it, but I have no doubt that Harper would still be defeated with such a strategy. The new government could then implement PR or preferential voting to stop vote-splitting. No merger needed.

For cooperation to work, the Liberals would have to have an belief system that consisted in more than just achieving power for the sake of self glorification and prestige. Without that, the NDP and Liberals will continue to mix like oil and water. The Greens are not a political party but a person (the proverbial "I" in team). That person is Elizabeth May and she is a green Tory. He green-ness only goes as far as it brushes up against the nimbyism of well-heeled or otherwise conservative Canadians. I wonder what Elizabeth May would actually do if she ever had to regulate industry. I wonder if she would actually regulate tough environmental standards or give industry loopholes to charge through in the name of economic interest, just like the Liberals did. While she's at it, she can impose her social conservative views (anti-abortion, clamp down on immigration, christian evangelism), and foreign policy views (Afghans are savages from a culture that does not understand peace therefore we cannot achieve peace in Afghanistan), not to mention her megalomanic tendencies (short of being named PM and allowed to stand front and centre in all the press conferences, I can't imagine Elizabeth May being content in government).

So there you have it, two elitist parties with a pathological yen for the limelight, and one (the NDP) without the suppleness to capitalise on their weaknesses yet (the NDP MUST find a way to capture the votes of economic conservatives with progressive social values) and win.

David Young

Beautifully put, Felixr.

What some people just will not get is the fact that the Liberals have a great deal more in common with the Conservatives than the NDP.

To defeat the Conservatives, the NDP will need a team of winnable candidates.

The voters have to have the confidence that their candidate/potential M.P. will be an asset to where they live and not a liablity.

The NDP has been steadily polling in the 28-33% range because of the team that Jack Layton brought to parliament with him in the 2011 election.

Give Mulcair the 70+ candidates in winnable ridings that he needs, and watch history being made yet again!

 

 

janfromthebruce

mark_alfred wrote:

Robo wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:
... Well actually we did 2x better than the Liberals in Ontario and won 22 seats in comparison to Liberals who won 11. Furthermore, we did extremely well in 2nd place finishes.

True.  But the NDP place third in the proportion of votes given in Ontario (granted, a close third), with the Liberals second. ...

In the May 2011 federal election, NDP candidates in Ontario got 1,416,537 votes, while Liberal candidates in Ontario got 1,400,280 votes. As Jan noted, the NDP vote was more "efficient" in terms of producing seats for the NDP, but the NDP nevertheless was not in third in the popular vote.

Thanks for pointing that out.  Yes, it does seem I was mistaken.

It's because I live in Ontario and so knew that the NDP did better in Ontario, and also about the 2nd place finishes.

I don't see the liberals as a progressive party. Someone mentioned that NFL would basically be where the libs would run except I disagree - we won seats there, and took another from the Libs, and the NDP was polling very well there.

This is part of the problem when again, I see this as just another political strategy of electing liberals and often. We must team up or Cons will win. Except, it's based on the fact that one thinks Liberals are progressive. Short answer: no.

NorthReport

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Cge /Cons /C-Cge /Libs /L-Chge /BQ /B-Cge /Grn /G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / --

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /--

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 

 

 

NorthReport

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Cge /Cons /C-Cge /Libs /L-Chge /BQ /B-Cge /Grn /G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  32% / -- / 36% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid /

 

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 32% / -- / 30% / -- / 20% / -- /


Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /30% / -- / 33% / -- / 27% / -- /

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /



Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 29% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / --

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ippurigakko

i know it is not PEI provincial elections but it is amazing to see PEI polls (from 308 blogs)

PEI 2011 vs CRA polls
LIB 51% -> 45% (-6)
PC 40% -> 28% (-12)
NDP 3% -> 22% (+19)
GRN 4% -> 5% (+1)

looks like PEI, NB and NL going NDP premier in future!

Ippurigakko

Thankfully Liberal never beat NDP on average on 308 blogs:  November 2012 federal polling averages

CON 34% (+2) since October 2012
NDP 29% (-1)
LIB 26% (-2)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 4% (=)

Oct 2011 vs Oct 2012
CON 38% vs 32% (-6)
NDP 30% vs 30% (=)
LIB 24% vs 28% (+4)
BQ 4% vs 5% (+1)
GRN 3% vs 4% (+1)

Nov 2011 and Nov 2012 averages
CON 36% vs 34% (-2)
NDP 29% vs 29% (=)
LIB 24% vs 26% (+2)
BQ 5% vs 6% (+1)
GRN 5% vs 4% (-1)

 

NDP will be rising in next spring like last spring-summer

Ippurigakko

Ohhh Liberal still 18% !

Leger Marketing on dec 6, 2012
CON 35% (+3) since April 2012
NDP 30% (-3)
LIB 18% (-1)
GRN 9% (+1)
BQ 7% (=)

Atlantic
LIB 39% (+19)
NDP 25% (-24)
CON 17% (+1)
GRN 16% (+1)
 
Quebec
NDP 35% (-12)
BQ 29% (=)
LIB 17% (+7)
CON 15% (+5)
GRN 2% (-1)

Ontario
CON 40% (+1)
NDP 26% (=)
LIB 19% (-6)
GRN 13% (+4)
 
Prairies
CON 35% (-14)
NDP 33% (+7)
LIB 23% (+10)
GRN 7% (-5)

Alberta
CON 63% (+2)
NDP 21% (+8)
LIB 10% (-7)
GRN 5% (=)

BC
NDP 39% (+5)
CON 39% (+9)
LIB 12% (-10)
GRN 8% (-2)

 

http://www.legermarketing.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/ENCA20121210.pdf

adma

Even post-byelections, those Green numbers don't make sense.

Ippurigakko

I think it is for every City only, not rural/town.

Every Cities Green always high percent than small communities . i think

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Ip:

Those numbers, with the exception of Atlantic Canada, maybe there is some "Dix" effect there, are not bad. I am not happy about the Prairies, but on the other hand the NDP is up, so maybe those LPC votes are Tories voting LPC, and that might help us. We are at 30%, our baseline for a long time and noise, so not too badly. I'd argue this is pretty good overall. Atlantic Canada, maybe even there it might help us a bit at the expense of the Tories. The other thing is the Libs fell nationaly, so maybe JT is starting to grate on people and this is starting to show it. Chin up!

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