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latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

Obviously the polling shows that many people are very open to Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader and aren't very stuck to the NDP, which is definitely of concern. 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

agree with Doug, when nanos ask them which they vote for, liberal and they thought justin trudeau is leader thats why!


Jacob Two-Two
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Joined: Jan 16 2002

It denotes a need for vigilance, yes, but I wouldn't say concern. Nothing has changed. Canadians are flirting with the NDP but their default is still the nice "safe" options they usually fall back on. I've always known this, and the Liberal party getting a bit of a bump from a high-profile leader is not unexpected.

I've been telling everyone I know that the NDP is going to win the next election and it's not because OMG! We're leading in a few polls! We'll never go down again!!! I have this confidence because I see the party working hard and acting smart, and basically doing a better job than I've ever seen in my lifetime, and I can see that our opposition is riddled with weaknesses, despite the respectability factor of being the "big two". We are outperforming them.

Granted, it's not impossible that Justin will grow into the job of leader in a stunningly unprecedented way, but I see no evidence of that at the moment. Unless that happens I'm sticking with my prediction. The NDP will suffer some slings and arrows along the way, but it will continue to outperform the Cons and the Libs and in the end, people will choose us.

Mind you, I'm also predicting another stock market crash, larger than the last, which will give the NDP renewed credibility as the defender of the little guy. That's a part of my analysis that not everyone may share.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

janfromthebruce wrote:

The NANO polling has always been higher for Liberals, and lower for the NDP. And Nanos has been the outier in comparison to other pollsters in this regard.

As usual, the NDP will have to fight hard against the corporate media and power brokers in this country in their quest to ensure only Liberals or Conservatives form federal govt. Crony capitalism lives on and is well in Canada.

Yep, Ekos at least acknowldges that they over value the Green Party, nanos does the same with the liberals, but has his head in the sand.

Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

Jacob Two-Two wrote:

It denotes a need for vigilance, yes, but I wouldn't say concern. Nothing has changed. Canadians are flirting with the NDP but their default is still the nice "safe" options they usually fall back on. I've always known this, and the Liberal party getting a bit of a bump from a high-profile leader is not unexpected.

I've been telling everyone I know that the NDP is going to win the next election and it's not because OMG! We're leading in a few polls! We'll never go down again!!! I have this confidence because I see the party working hard and acting smart, and basically doing a better job than I've ever seen in my lifetime, and I can see that our opposition is riddled with weaknesses, despite the respectability factor of being the "big two". We are outperforming them.

Granted, it's not impossible that Justin will grow into the job of leader in a stunningly unprecedented way, but I see no evidence of that at the moment. Unless that happens I'm sticking with my prediction. The NDP will suffer some slings and arrows along the way, but it will continue to outperform the Cons and the Libs and in the end, people will choose us.

Mind you, I'm also predicting another stock market crash, larger than the last, which will give the NDP renewed credibility as the defender of the little guy. That's a part of my analysis that not everyone may share.

I agree, I'm amazed at how the NDP and Mulcair have been doing. Its even looking like Mulcair will get his way on piping Alberta Oil east and getting value added Jobs thank to the mainline pipeline changing one of thier piperlines from gas to oil. Anywhere from 500,000 to 1 million barrells a day. I mean everything almost Mulcair seems to touch turns to gold. Northern Gateways is toast, I think the Nexen Deal is will be toast, the Tories are getting roasted over the F-35s, the Tories are backing off at least partially on unemployment insurence, and so on. Not saying he's winning on his own, but the public profile and so on that he's provided has had a major impact. Even most journalists admit he's the most effective Official Opposition Leader Harper ever faced.

socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

It's too bad Mulcair doesn't have a direct profile with the people. He's actually a good speaker when he's more loose and off the cuff. And Brachina is right about some of his achievements in his brief time as opposition leader. We ought to contrast that with the Liberal record in opposition.

In simple terms. Not wonky. "We stopped a dangerous pipeline" and "we stopped a huge sellout to China on oil" are both easy to understand.


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

Nik on the numbers tonight: usually it's strange, but this is downright crazy:

Of the following individuals, who do you trust most to:

Negotiate trade agreements

Stephen Harper: 27.9%
Daniel Paillé: 1.0%
Thomas Mulcair: 11.7%
Justin Trudeau: 18.4%
Elizabeth May: 3.5%
None of them: 16.6%
Unsure: 21.0%

Spend tax dollars wisely

Stephen Harper: 18.3%
Daniel Paillé: 1.1%
Thomas Mulcair: 17.2%
Justin Trudeau: 16.7%
Elizabeth May: 5.5%
None of them: 25.6%
Unsure: 15.7%

Protect the environment

Stephen Harper: 12.0%
Daniel Paillé: 1.2%
Thomas Mulcair: 8.3%  Surprised
Justin Trudeau: 15.0%
Elizabeth May: 31.4%
None of them: 15.2%
Unsure: 17.0%

(he used Justin Trudeau because Trudeau is trending the strongest of all the Liberal candidates)


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Nik Nanos IS liberal-lover. period.


kropotkin1951
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Joined: Jun 6 2002

The party dumped the peace movement but then they didn't need it when they were grabbing for the brass ring on the centre pole.

However I doubt if the BC numbers are close to reality.

Interesting that as the party drops its socialist and peace traditions the puppet masters pull a celebrity Liberal out of the hat.  But don't worry nobody cares about those issues they are not worth expending political capital on.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

What is the take away from this? I think Nanos is always up to funny business, but what is the take away? What is the party not doing? What is Tom not doing?


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Boom Boom wrote:

Nik on the numbers tonight: usually it's strange, but this is downright crazy:

Of the following individuals, who do you trust most to:

Negotiate trade agreements

Stephen Harper: 27.9%
Daniel Paillé: 1.0%
Thomas Mulcair: 11.7%
Justin Trudeau: 18.4%
Elizabeth May: 3.5%
None of them: 16.6%
Unsure: 21.0%

Spend tax dollars wisely

Stephen Harper: 18.3%
Daniel Paillé: 1.1%
Thomas Mulcair: 17.2%
Justin Trudeau: 16.7%
Elizabeth May: 5.5%
None of them: 25.6%
Unsure: 15.7%

Protect the environment

Stephen Harper: 12.0%
Daniel Paillé: 1.2%
Thomas Mulcair: 8.3%  Surprised
Justin Trudeau: 15.0%
Elizabeth May: 31.4%
None of them: 15.2%
Unsure: 17.0%

(he used Justin Trudeau because Trudeau is trending the strongest of all the Liberal candidates)

 

Well Justin manor born and life of leisure just has to say he "cares about the environmet". Anyway, Thomas is on the right track and I know that our party can handle the flirtation with Trudeau.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

I know you are right Jan, but frankly, every now and again, I just have these moments of terrified, irrational, panic. I think Tom is going to prove overwhelmingly formidable on the campaing stump. He is quick, tough, and warm. I know people will pick that up. I appreciate though that you posted a reply. And regarding manor born, what gets me about Trudeau is he doesn't even think he has to deny it. Take abouta 1%er!


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

So 18.4 per cent think Justin would be best for negotiating trade agreements? perhaps he aquired this skill as critic for amateur sport.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

I don't think the public is fully buying the NDP's sudden conversion to "centrism" and that is where some of the failure has occurred. Personally, I don't believe all of it either, because the NDP still seems like its play acting on being in favour of trade or being in favour of resource development, at the same time as it launches the rhetorical bombs of before. The other problem is that while the Tories no longer have control of the agenda, the NDP has been moving further and further onto the issues turf of ideas that play well for the right. While the NDP can build credibility on taxes, F-35s, what-have-you from thorough, consistent work; this issues will continue to play badly for the left for many years. So by willingfully moving onto the issues ground of things that work for your opponent you do bring them under some pressure, you also leave the conversation on a topic that works better in the polls for them. As such, the NDP needs to figure out how to give some of its bread and butter issues more profile (namely health care, the NDP can beat up the Conservatives all day on that file and other social development ones) and work those back into the media line-up. Have some stories that play well for the NDP in the media playing against those where you are trying to make the Tories lose ground and you combine strength with strength. Lastly, the party has desperately got to soften up Tom's image. Make him look like he actually knows how to have fun. Make him look like someone that has the ability to connect. Otherwise, people are going to continue believing that he is some kind of angry lawyer willing to tear out Harper's heart/or paycheck at a divorce hearing or something like that. One place Mulcair shines is when he is portrayed as the defender of the little guy. His ability to take on a bully on behalf of those less well placed to defend themselves, is what has made him such a formidable politician.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

While I'm in rant mode, here's how I think the NDP should resolve the omnibus budget problem too. Most Canadians don't care that the government is undermining democracy and the role of the opposition, all they know is that the Conservatives are in government and to a certain exten they can do as they please (i.e. govern). Most Canadians wouldn't care period, politics is boring and budget politics is worse. However, most Canadians also probably realise that what Harper is doing is wrong, so I think what they want or would react positively too is a punishment that befits the crime. In this instance, Harper is disrespecting democracy by rendering the role of the opposition obsolete and by not submitting his bills to proper oversight. Solution? Realise that Harper has the power to do that (with a majority in the House) but deny him unanimous consent on any motion or bill until he opens up the budget to democratic oversight. No going to the bathroom, noadjournments, no correction of spelling errors, nothing, unless Harper musters the votes. No unanimous consent period. Let everything go to a vote. Want to be a prick? Repeat or slow up the voting process, just for fun. Next, take advantage of the NDP's procedural leverage in the house, to unpredictably make the house work longer hours. Why? The NDP has the numbers that they can play this war of attrition game, but the other non-Conservative parties do not. Also, Canadians are not going to be upset if their Parliamentarians work longer hours. Canadians think they are getting a better deal out of Parliamentarians if they make them work. Give Canadians some good political theatre. Make life unpleasant and unpredictable for the Conservatives. Take time away from their ability to relax, organise, spend time with their families, get drunk with their mistresses, whatever until they make a token gesture or two towards respecting democracy. Canadians would love this. It is a good punch and judy show. Make the punishment fit the crime.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

I just don't think the Canadian public really knows Mulcair, period. I don't think they know Trudeau either. But Trudeau has a lot of mythmaking going his way. Mulcair, the myths are actually cutting against him. For a guy who took on the separatists provincially, I see a lot of pundits calling him soft on separatism, and the ridiculousness is never really addressed by anyone. I don't think the pundits will ever love any New Democrat (except a dead one, unfortunately), which is why he has to be engaging with people directly.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Socialdemocratic:

 

"I don't think the pundits will ever love any New Democrat (except a dead one, unfortunately), which is why he has to be engaging with people directly."

 

That is EXACTLY right! And, when he does that, he will connect. I have yet to see Tom scowling in Public. He just doesn't do it. Look at the Stampede. He showed how comfortable he was in his own sking, and how genuine he is. This is his secret weapon.

 


Centrist
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Joined: Apr 7 2004

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:
I just don't think the Canadian public really knows Mulcair, period. I don't think they know Trudeau either.

OTOH, I'm sure Quebecers are familiar with both Mulcair and Trudeau. And the findings of Quebecers in that Nanos poll bother me a bit in that regard:

1. Who is most trusted to negotiate trade agreements:

Harper - 27.8%

Trudeau - 22.4%

Mulcair - 16.3%

None/Not Sure - 30.8%

 

2. Who is most trusted to spend tax dollars wisely?

Mulcair - 27.1%

Trudeau - 22.3%

Harper - 13.5%

None/Not Sure - 31.5%

 

3. Most trusted to protect environment?

May - 34.6%

Trudeau - 17.1%

Mulcair - 15.7%

Harper - 6.5%

None/Not Sure - 25.4%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W12-T559E.pdf

Surely, in Quebec, I would have assumed that Tom's numbers would have been much better. I dunno.


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

socialdemocraticmiddle wrote:

It's too bad Mulcair doesn't have a direct profile with the people. He's actually a good speaker when he's more loose and off the cuff. And Brachina is right about some of his achievements in his brief time as opposition leader. We ought to contrast that with the Liberal record in opposition.

In simple terms. Not wonky. "We stopped a dangerous pipeline" and "we stopped a huge sellout to China on oil" are both easy to understand.

The Liberals greatest asset is peoples ignorance, I know people who give Justin credit for things Mulcair has done or taken the lead on. This is what sickens people like Gerald Caplan and people like me. The shear ignorance of the Canadians is amazing.

Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

The NDP stands to lose support if it doesn't speak up on issues like Israel/Palestine and the recent seizure of a Gaza-bound boat loaded with humanitarian supplies. I thought the silence of the NDP on this is absolutely disgraceful.


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

It's early yet.  The real problem is money.  Even when the NDP was #1 in the polls and the Libs were in the basement, the Libs were still raking in greater donation money than was the NDP.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

felixr wrote:
Lastly, the party has desperately got to soften up Tom's image. Make him look like he actually knows how to have fun. Make him look like someone that has the ability to connect. Otherwise, people are going to continue believing that he is some kind of angry lawyer willing to tear out Harper's heart/or paycheck at a divorce hearing or something like that. One place Mulcair shines is when he is portrayed as the defender of the little guy. His ability to take on a bully on behalf of those less well placed to defend themselves, is what has made him such a formidable politician.

You have to be careful with that. Remember that Tom is not Jack. Jack was happy, Tom is a pitbull, and if we try to present an image of Tom as something he's not, then voters will see right through that. Remember also that until the last 2 weeks of the federal election campaign, Jack Layton was "a used car salesman." A few minor tweaks may be in order here or there, but a make-over could be risky.

Besides, as has been pointed out, Mulcair was at the Calgary Stampede and came across looking pretty good there.


Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

mark_alfred wrote:
It's early yet.  The real problem is money.  Even when the NDP was #1 in the polls and the Libs were in the basement, the Libs were still raking in greater donation money than was the NDP.

Really? I know that the Liberals relied more on corporate donations and the Conservative and NDP more on individual, and the removal of the vote subsidy isn't helping them much either. Have they managed to turn that around?

Keep in mind also that the NDP fundraising ability was hampered by the leadership race, which the Liberals are yet to go into.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Aristotleded24 wrote:
You have to be careful with that. Remember that Tom is not Jack. Jack was happy, Tom is a pitbull, and if we try to present an image of Tom as something he's not, then voters will see right through that. Remember also that until the last 2 weeks of the federal election campaign, Jack Layton was "a used car salesman." A few minor tweaks may be in order here or there, but a make-over could be risky.

Besides, as has been pointed out, Mulcair was at the Calgary Stampede and came across looking pretty good there.

Tom can absolutely humiliate someone in a debate. I don't know that I'd describe him as a pitbull. But your point is important: Tom has to be authentic above everything else.

I went to a few events during the leadership race mostly to ask questions. He didn't convince me to make him my top choice in the leadership race, but he did have moments where he inspired people, made people laugh, and really connected with people. He just needs to do more of it.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Seems I should make a timely reminder about how polls work-- don't have much time now though.

Polls are opt in and only about 1% agree to do them. If one group is more motivated than the others they warp the polls. At election time the polls get more accurate because usually most parties are more equally motivated. Right now it is the Liberals paying the most attention and the most exited to do polls when others have other things to do. Consequently they have a huge bump in the polls. However these things don't last.

I question bounces in polls for conventions generally maybe they don't actually happen-- it is possible that this is what it is always-- over-representation of a motivated group that slides off after the hot period.

All that said the NDP has not sealed the deal and to do so it needs a second election in the top two -- preferably in the first position -- in order to clearly establish a permanent shift in the political landscape.

The NDP could also be doing better in communications right now in terms of a real strategy to get people thinking about substance as that will motivate NDP supporters and expose the other parties' shell games.  The NDP needs to be everywhere on policy and they are a little too quiet right now. They cannot afford to be.


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

Aristotleded24 wrote:

mark_alfred wrote:
It's early yet.  The real problem is money.  Even when the NDP was #1 in the polls and the Libs were in the basement, the Libs were still raking in greater donation money than was the NDP.

Really? I know that the Liberals relied more on corporate donations and the Conservative and NDP more on individual, and the removal of the vote subsidy isn't helping them much either. Have they managed to turn that around?

I was basing that on the last quarter results from Election Canada, which showed the Cons first, the Libs second, the NDP third.  Both the Libs and NDP were far behind the Cons, but the Libs still came out ahead of the NDP.  It was a couple of months ago that I last checked, so perhaps, if a newer quarterly donation report has come out, this has changed.

 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
It was greater by all of a hundred grand over the NDP and the Liberals have much greater expenses still. The NDP also get more in per voter subsides which while deminishing are still more then enough to give the NDP the edge in combined funding for that quarter. The NDP also gets more from the other catogory, stuff like renting outspace in thier HQ building which is greater then what the Liberals get. The truth is expecting the NDP to pull in Tory level dollar when the Tory's are backed by the 1% and socon zealots who would sell thier homes if it meant an end to gay marriage is unrealistic and unneeded, all we need is enough money to get out point accross and a while designed commenications. Look at the Obama/Romney battle for example, Romney is hugely outspending Obama, but Obama is still spending enough to get his point across so Romney had no advantage really. Romney's debate victory did far more then his ad spending spree. My point is there are diminishing returns at a certain point. People over value the influence of the Tory ads in previous attack campaigns. Iggy didn't drop like a stone till Jack beat him in the debates, the ads only helped reinforce Jack's point. Against Dion the ads only helped bring to the,fore something that would have beaten Dion anyway, he was running as an eviromental champion when he was aweful enviroment minister. Ads or no ads it was a contradiction he couldn't survive. The ads against Mulcair did nothing.

Malcontent
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Joined: Jul 5 2012

I am just upset so many  people i meet are so giddy bout Justin. Celebrity is all so many know these days..But what do you expect when the country is full of stupid uninformed people who care more about Jersey shore or what the special at teh drive thru is than what effects thei rlife.   It is heartbreaking thinking the NDP had a chance to form government in 2015 to realise now the reality if Justin gets picked as Liberal leader the NDP will go back down to being a 3rd or 4th party again..


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

Brachina wrote:
The NDP also get more in per voter subsides which while deminishing are still more then enough to give the NDP the edge in combined funding for that quarter.



I thought the per voter subsidies came to an end a while ago in the Con's first budget after getting the majority.

Brachina wrote:


The NDP also gets more from the other catogory, stuff like renting outspace in thier HQ building which is greater then what the Liberals get.



I wasn't aware of that.  I had heard that they and/or the Ont NDP had properties that they would sometimes use as collateral for loans to finance campaigns, but this is the first I've heard of them being a landlord.  What's your source for that information?

Brachina wrote:


The truth is expecting the NDP to pull in Tory level dollar when the Tory's are backed by the 1% and socon zealots who would sell thier homes if it meant an end to gay marriage is unrealistic and unneeded, all we need is enough money to get out point accross and a while designed commenications.



The 1% comment assumes that there's a few who donate great amounts to the Cons, putting them over the edge.  In fact, they have a higher number of donors than the NDP does.  Admittedly, when one calculates the average per person donation from the numbers, it is true that it works out to each donor giving more than each donor for the NDP, but it's still not hugely lopsided.  Regarding the Liberals, they too have more donors than the NDP, but on average each donor to the Liberals gives less than does each donor to the NDP.  Still, they reaped in more cash because they had more donors.  Here were the numbers from June:

NDP:

Total contributions ($)    1,743,862.40
Total number of contributors    18,478

So, total contributions divided by # of contributors = 94.38 per contributor for the quarter.

Libs:

Total contributions ($)    1,807,092.36
Total number of contributors    22,611

So, total contributions divided by # of contributors = 79.92 per contributor for the quarter.


Cons:

Total contributions ($)    3,746,366.18
Total number of contributors    28,790

So, total contributions divided by # of contributors = 130.12 per contributor for the quarter.

I think those on the left should be just as passionate about creating an egalitarian society as those on the right are about creating a neoliberal society.  I don't buy that it is impossible to compete on fundraising with parties who hold socially conservative and/or neoliberal ideas.  There are limits to how much people can donate, and while the Con donors do donate more on average, it still isn't the maximum of $1,100 a year.  From the numbers above, the average Con donor was giving $520.48 per year, whereas the average NDP donor was giving $377.52 per year, and the average Liberal donor was giving 319.68 per year (I multiplied the above quarter #s by four).  The Liberals overall beat the NDP because they had more donors, in spite of their per donor contributions being less.  I myself give $240.00 per year to the federal NDP (and the same to the Ont NDP), via a $20 per month donation to each.  So, I'm below the average.  But, my hope is that a far higher number of people will kick in even small amounts to bring the total up closer to the level the Cons have.  I don't think it's impossible (IE, no one has to "mortgage their house").  In a nation of over thirty million people, surly more could commit a few bucks a month toward electing a social democratic government that will protect healthcare, provide opportunity, and close the gap between the rich and the poor.  This should be more inspiring to more people than are the neoliberal and/or the socially conservative big-business policies of other parties.

Anyway, I stand by my statement that money is a problem for the NDP when compared with the Liberals and especially when compared with the Conservatives.


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

Malcontent wrote:

I am just upset so many  people i meet are so giddy bout Justin. Celebrity is all so many know these days..But what do you expect when the country is full of stupid uninformed people who care more about Jersey shore or what the special at teh drive thru is than what effects thei rlife.   It is heartbreaking thinking the NDP had a chance to form government in 2015 to realise now the reality if Justin gets picked as Liberal leader the NDP will go back down to being a 3rd or 4th party again..

It's early yet.  And people are smarter than you think.  In the end they'll choose Mulcair and the NDP over Trudeau and the Liberals because Mulcair and the NDP are competent.  People don't want giddy.  They want competence.


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