latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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jerrym

I suspect that the large changes in Liberal (+19%) and NDP (-24%) are in large part a function of the very small sample size of 79 voters in Atlantic Canada, which means the results for this region have a large margin of error. 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

jerrym wrote:

I suspect that the large changes in Liberal (+19%) and NDP (-24%) are in large part a function of the very small sample size of 79 voters in Atlantic Canada, which means the results for this region have a large margin of error. 

Well, then I even feel better, as the NDP has been polling consistently higher, and so the LPC may be lower nationally as well, which means the JT bounce may be over. Hurray!

socialdemocrati...

Keep it all in perspective, too. The NDP is where they were on election day, and throughout the leadership race. There was a Mulcair bounce, and it couldn't last forever. (Same thing with the JT bounce. It's faded a bit. He'll probably get another one once they actually coronate him.)

The NDP is basically stable (give or take) at its new height. That's worth celebrating for a party that was on the verge of disappearing 10 years ago.

The only net change is the Liberals gaining at the expense of the Conservatives. You wouldn't know it from the media narrative. But with the Liberals picking off Conservatives in Ontario, that's not a bad thing.

It means the Conservatives are back down to a minority. It opens up the possibility of an anti-Conservative coalition, or at least a parliament where the opposition matters. The NDP will have more power, and the Liberals will have to decide which side of their mouth they plan on acting on.

Sean in Ottawa

So what I get out of this is the following:

1) The NDP could win the next election but should not assume that it will win.

2) The NDP has a lot of work to do to win confidence of the people

3) Disgust with the Harper government is not enough to make a change of government-- some people are unreachable and the mounting disgust is mostly among those who did not vote for this government last time

4) The opposition to the government are not clear about what party they want to use to get rid of the Harper government and there has been no major conversion to one party or another

5) The discussion about electoral cooperation is likely to increase. It is impossible to know if any such cooperation would lead to more certainty in overturning the Harper government or actually backfire and re-elect it. But nevertheless, even without evidence it will come up. How we answer it is important. My sense is that insulting the people who raise it is not the answer any more than accepting it as a strategy.

6) There needs to be a very public conversation about what kind of democracy we want to have, what kind of public solutions we want to see to existing problems. People must feel involved if they want to be.

7) Nobody has thought of how to engage the people who are not engaged in electoral politics. Interestingly, I don't get that anybody is talking to these people at all other than how they might be used to build an electoral majority. Nobody is asking what we can be doing for them. Engagement is not a one way street. What can the NDP learn by listening to people who are involved in politics but right now have no interest in partisan politics? Can we still help build policy with people who are not disengaged but otherwise engaged?

8) There are many people who are motivated by a combination of fear and greed. How do we respond to this so that there is power to do something positive rather than create the ubiquitous electoral panic where we throw out a party and slowly build up the will to throw out the next rather than build something.

9) Everybody talks about doing something different but nobody has figured out what that really means. The NDP ideology is different but we often see the party trying to be more like the others in process than different from them. Is there really an another way of doing things? Another way of engaging people? Earning trust? Keeping promises?

10) Where is Canadian sentiment and ideology right now? I wonder at moments if we could ever win if a majority are in fact actually fairly right wing-- ranging from a centre right Liberal sort of right wing to screaming crazy reform. Where are Canadians really? Can they be moved? Are they moving away from us responding to the masses of propaganda, fear and greed motivations being placed before them?

11) There is some appeal in Justin Trudeau. What is it? Youthful looks? Empty words really do work? Triumph of hope over experience with that party? The sense that the middle is what the Liberals are and what is comfortable? Nostalgia for the Trudeau era? (Not altogether unreasonable as social justice in Canada does seem to have peaked then in many respects -- not gay rights but certainly economic equality was better then.)

12) The NDP and the opposition should not for a moment underestimate the potential of the conservatives-- their strength in money, power, manipulation, legal and illegal skullduggery, and their advantages gained by huge corporatist support in the media. Even with an opposition not badly divided they will be hard to beat.

I think there is a lot more to do than look at polls when it comes to analysis. It is reasonable to say Justin Trudeau could win. The reason I say that is he is a potential leader of a third party under 20% in the polls and parties that far down can win at times. You need to respect the opposition. If you want to win-- you need to answer those questions.

Winning the next election is about addressing a lot of these questions in my view. Many I don't have answers for even though I have thought about them for a long time. I therefore cannot help but admit the height of the mountain to climb. If the polls being all over the place and the threat of Justin Trudeau could do one positive thing it is to nip the idea of inevitability or complacency that can so easily take root in a strong opposition facing a tired, out-of-touch, scandalous, and increasingly loathed government.

When it comes to the inevitable discussions about vote cooperation schemes, the people who want to remove this government will be looking for a real plan to replace the Conservatives in power and it will take considerable strength to avoid discussions which ultimately could risk limiting democratic options and making dangerous assumptions that could lead to another Conservative victory.

 

Jacob Two-Two

1) Yes.

2) Yes.

3) And yes.

4) I think the opposition is deliberately not making that choice yet. It makes sense. Mulcair is still fairly new. The Liberals don't have a leader yet. The election's three years away. The anti-Harper sentiment is out there, but there's no hurry in people's minds to pick a banner for it right now. It's nice that the party seems stable at this new level, but there is plenty of opportunity to fall and to grow, depending on how we perform. However, the effects might be invisible for a long time. In fact, a very likely scenario is that nothing really earthshattering happens in Canadian politics between now and the election, so the polls barely change even as Mulcair and the NDP build up trust and good will, resulting in a surprise victory when the electorate is suddenly forced into making a decision and admit that Mulcair is the best choice.

5) This is unfortunate but I'm sure you're right. There are no lack of arguments against it, but maybe the easiest is to turn the logic against itself. The idea behind a cooperation agreement is that the voter preferences seem fixed and thus neither party is likely to sway enough voters to win a majority. This is SO unlikely that working together is the only way to beat the Conservatives. To this I say, the idea of the NDP and Liberal party structures and activist bases working together for mutual benefit is FAR less likely than swaying stubborn voters. Of these two tasks, a cooperation project is clearly the more fantastically ambitious and thankless endeavour. I would consider it to be nearly impossible. You can't just wave a magic wand and undo decades of rivalry and bitterness. These people have history.

6) We won't be seeing this from the NDP. I agree that it's vital but I don't believe that such a conversation will be emerging out of electoral politics. It would have to come from citizen's groups and gain enough popularity that the government couldn't ignore it.

7) Yeah, that directly relates to the state of our democracy, which, like I said, I don't expect any politicians to be talking about. In other words, while these are important questions, I disagree that they are questions that will have any bearing on the upcoming election.

8) Well, there's the rub, isn't it? Democracy would work just great if everyone was politically engaged and personally empowered. In other words, if they weren't ruled by fear and greed. I think all activism is related to this in some way. Trying to create opportunities for people to claw out of this trap. There are no end of solutions out there, but few are being tried or even evaluated because people are more vulnerable to greed and fear than the appeal of intelligent solutions. We are just animals, after all, with a stimulous response system that is easy to manipulate, but we also know we're capable of being much more, so we keep fighting to create those opportunities and hoping they'll be taken.

I think the NDP under Jack did a decent job of talking about what they wanted to build rather than just being critical. Certainly the charge of appealing to fear and greed would be much easier to lay on the Cons and Libs. Hopefully they continue this in the years to come, and try to stay constructive in their messaging.

9) Is the NDP ideology that different? Honestly I rarely hear anything from the party that's substantively different than Liberal propaganda. The difference is that we know the Libs are full of shit and we hope the NDP isn't. I don't think the NDP has any intention of "doing things differently". On the contrary, I think they are going to position themselves as a competent prudent counterpoint to ideological reckless Conservatives, and flakey, gaffe-prone Liberals. In other words, they will be the small-c conservative candidates. The campaign could be summed up in the line, "What they promise, we'll deliver!"

There is definitely another way of doing things, and that's to decentralise power. To not just "consult" with people but to literally engage them with real decision-making authority. The constant refrains for "A new kind of politics", or "Doing politics differently" are just a lot of hot air without concrete initiatives of this kind. But again, we won't be hearing this stuff from the NDP.

10) I believe that the country is substantially more left-wing than its media or political establishment, and also that it is drifiting leftward right now. We have never been the US, with its pompous mythologies of rugged individualism. Behind our own right-wing strains of thought runs a deep belief in community, the need for people to band together, the sense that we're all in the same boat. Even at our most conservative this notion has remained strong, and now with so much uncertainty looming in our future it is seeing a resurgence. Canadians are turning back to government as a way of solving problems, and if things unfold as I predict, only the NDP will be offering this to the voters in a credible fashion.

11) Better question: What was the appeal in Paul martin? Why did anyone ever think he'd be a huge hit with the public? Or Michael Ignatieff? What the hell?

The saddest thing about the Liberal party is that Justin really is the best thing they've had going for them in ages, and yes, all he is is a pretty face. But a pretty face can be surprisingly effective. Studies show that people respond really well to pictures of good-looking men and tend to judge them as smarter, kinder, and all-around better than people who aren't as attractive. Based on just their picture. Crazy but true.

And that's what people are doing with Justin. The Canadian public has been waiting for a real leader to emerge for quite some time and it just keeps being disappointed. It's only natural that some of them will project the qualities they would like to see in a PM onto a handsome, famous face that is mostly a blank slate. Sadly for Justin, he's not really a model and eventually he's going to be called upon to do a lot more than smile for the camera. It's one of those situations where the better they know him, the less there'll be to like. I'm guessing the opposite will happen with Mulcair.

12) This is true, but simultaneously they are more vulnerable than they appear. I've always maintained that the Cons are hanging on to their swing voters just by virtue of a lack of options. These voters don't like Harper, but traditionally distrust the NDP and have been unimpressed by the bumbling of the Liberal party over the last decade. The NDP is moving into a position of respectability that we have never had before and I think it will make us palatable to a lot of these voters for the first time.

Ippurigakko

308 BLOGS SAID ON LEGER MARKETING COMPARE DIFFERENT LIBERAL LEADERS

Martha H Findlay
CON 36
NDP 33%
LIB 12%
BQ 8%
GRN 8%

Marc Garneau
CON 35%
NDP 29%
LIB 19%
BQ 8%
GRN 7%

Justin Trudeau
CON 31%
LIB 31%
NDP 24%
BQ 7%
GRN 7%

Brachina

Believe it or not that's a major drop in support for Trudeau, he was killing it at what 40 percent in the polls with the NDP at what 20 percent?

So yeah the disillusionment have began, hopefully the other Liberal Leadership contenders target Trudeau hard, he his has major weaknesses.

The other two contenders will are already getting beaten by the NDP.

clambake

Go Martha Hall Findlay! :)

clambake

New Abacus poll has:

CON 34

NDP 32

LIB 22

Feel dirty linking to the SNN, but here it is:

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/sunnews/politics/archives/2012/12/20121211-...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well, there is some encouragement here for sure. I would like to see the look on the face of that smug little prick as he reads the polls. He figures he is already the PM, the conceited, stuffed shirt SOB.

 

NOTE: NO, I DO NOT like him.

Brachina

The Sun tries to spin the Abacus poll as good news for Trudeau, but I'm not seeing it. Dynasism my arse.

This poll is a statistical tie between the NDP and the Tories and in the face of Trudeau Mania.

janfromthebruce

Pointed out elswhere, this poll is good on reflecting on Jack Layton's polling numbers and also where the NDP sat in the polls on election day - the NDP is actually higher in this poll - so having perspective is good.

We know the Sun wants to tap down the numbers on the NDP and let the libs rise, and particularly for Trudeau because they see him easier to typecast - also his name is a negative magnet for died in the wool conservative supports, just sayin.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Mods, please do something about spammer, gloing69, who has an entry just above my own. Thanks.

Sean in Ottawa

Jacob Two-Two Thanks for your thoughts and all the time you spent considering those issues-- lots of food for thought

NorthReport

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Cge /Cons /C-Cge /Libs /L-Chge /BQ /B-Cge /Grn /G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Dec '12 / Abacus / 32% / 34% / 22%

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  32% / -- / 36% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid /

 

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 32% / -- / 30% / -- / 20% / -- /


Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /30% / -- / 33% / -- / 27% / -- /

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /



Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 29% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / --

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NorthReport

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Cge /Cons /C-Cge /Libs /L-Chge /BQ /B-Cge /Grn /G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Dec '12 / Abacus / 32% / 34% / 22%

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  32% / -- / 36% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid /

 

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 32% / -- / 30% / -- / 20% / -- /


Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /30% / -- / 33% / -- / 27% / -- /

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /



Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 29% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / --