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latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

1934 replies [Last post]

Comments

Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012

Malcontent wrote:

I am just upset so many  people i meet are so giddy bout Justin. Celebrity is all so many know these days..But what do you expect when the country is full of stupid uninformed people who care more about Jersey shore or what the special at teh drive thru is than what effects thei rlife.   It is heartbreaking thinking the NDP had a chance to form government in 2015 to realise now the reality if Justin gets picked as Liberal leader the NDP will go back down to being a 3rd or 4th party again..

Well the thing about celebrities is people enjoy seeing them crash and burn as much as they like seeing them rise. Justin Trudeau is the Vanilla Ice/Villy Vanilli of Canadian politics, he's the hottest thing until people discover he's nothing, but a poser and then he spends the rest of his life as the butt of jokes. Sings *Blame it on the NDP that falls at night , but what ever you do, don't put the blame on you, blame it on the NDP yeah,,yeah!*. *Ice, Ice Justin* Seriously he's a one hit wonder and that hit is about to fall off the charts. Think about this Justin was looking at 39% what just last month, now his just around 30% and around or less then Mulcair in many areas such as spending tax dollars and that's with Liberal loving Nanos. He's peaked already and the only question is is how soon will the descent begin and how low it will go when people became disillusioned. Some people are starting to wakeup and question, just as they did with the CAQ. Remember the CAQ was 60's at the beginning, when they were,just a fantasy. Justin is fantasy and fantasies always end. That's when people turn to the grownups like Mulcair. Still those of you who use twitter or meet these people that are excited about Justin, expose him for being a poser and mock his record, remind them of all Justin's support for the Harper Adgenda during the minoroty, and so on. Don't project fear, project distain for Justin, and humour at the persons Trudeau Mania. That's how you beat a phony.

David Young
Online
Joined: Dec 9 2007

Good point, Brachina.

By showing how many times Justin (It For Myself) Trudeau voted with the Conservatives between 2008 and 2011 will show people his true colours.

 


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Despite all the toxic qualities that the Liberal brand picked up (arrogance, entitlement, broken promises, campaign-left-govern-right), underneath all that they still have a strong brand built up that can be revived with the right combination of nostalgia and outsider-ism.

Competence is a part of the Liberal brand. (Deservedly or not.) It isn't for the NDP, at least not in Ontario. (Deservedly or not.)

A lot of us expected that we'd be battling both Conservatives and Liberals to make real reforms to the political system. Anyone who thought this would be a two party race was kidding themselves, and falling into the same trap that the Liberals made in the first place. Arrogance and entitlement is their thing, not ours. We take every political opponent seriously, and fight for every vote we get.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

One place Mulcair can't let up is on the economy. I know several voters that think the Tories are corrupt, and they don't respect democracy, and that there social conservatism scares them (or at least turns them off), but they don't want to put someone else in power when they feel the Tories can get the job done on the economy. Even when the Tories botch economic files, the feeling is, that the alternative would be worse. The NDP is seen as not knowing what its talking about on the economy. Focussing on marginal issues or marginal positions to the major issues of the day and hence not relevant or out of step/out of touch. The centrist on economic issues conversion is a laboured one. As has the NDP's conversion on other files. I think the party is also risking a grave mistake by putting such a right-wing turn on some of its foreign policies. Why? Simple, no one in the average Canadian public turns their vote on foreign policy matters. Domestic policy is all that matters to the average voter. Foreign policy however, is very important to the NDP base. By turning rightist or even hawkish on NDP foreign policy, the party is risking alienating its base; in the same way that turning right on economic policy risks alienating its base. The difference lies in the fact that shifting foreign policy shifts no votes, but shifting domestic policy does.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Forum Research on oct 1,

Toronto only

           CON / LIB / NDP / GRN
total    32%   31%  30%      4%
18-34  30%   26%  31%      8%
35-44  22%   30%  39%      7%
45-54  27%   39%  31%      1%
55-64  36%   26%  23%      4%
Male   35%   29%  31%      3%
Female 30% 32%  30%      5%
EastY  21%  29%   44%     5%
NorthY 37% 33%  24%      2%
Eto-Y  34%   33%  26%      4%
Scarb 41%   26%  25%      6%
East   32%   30%  29%      5%
West  33%  31%   32%      3%
OPC   90%    6%     3%      0%
OLIB  12%   72%   14%     2%
ONDP   7%  16%   74%     2%
OGRN   8%  10%   11%   69%

Trudeau
LIB 40%, CON 30%, NDP 23%, GRN 4%

blah blah blah about Trudeau!!!!!!!! Media news too much about trudeau that why ppl pay attention and attract him! Canadian ppl are cheap! too easy to think Liberal can save Canada. Yeah whatever! I'd call them uneducated/ignorant.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Forum Research oct 29

By-elections

Victoria
NDP 47% (-4)
GRN 20% (+8)
CON 16% (-8)
LIB 16% (+2)

Durham
CON 46% (-9)
NDP 24% (+3)
LIB 20% (+2)
GRN 6% (+1)
OTH 4%

Calgary Centre
CON 48% (-10)
LIB 28% (+10)
GRN 11% (+1)
NDP 8% (-7)

 

Federal Canada
NDP 32% (+2)
CON 31% (-4)
LIB 27% (+2)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 4% (+1)

Atlantic
LIB 37% (+8)
NDP 36% (+2)
CON 22% (-12)
GRN 4% (+2)

Quebec
NDP 31% (+2)
LIB 29% (-1)
BQ 21% (-1)
CON 16% (-1)
GRN 2% (+1)

Ontario
CON 36% (-1)
NDP 32% (+2)
LIB 28% (=)
GRN 3% (-1)

Prairies
NDP 48% (+15)
CON 35% (-12)
LIB 15% (+2)
GRN 2% (-4)

Alberta
CON 60% (=)
LIB 18% (+2)
NDP 15% (-5)
GRN 6% (+2)

BC
NDP 38% (+5)
CON 27% (-16)
LIB 26% (+6)
GRN 8% (+6)

Trudeau
LIB 39% (=)
CON 29% (-3)
NDP 24% (+4)
BQ 5% (-1)
GRN 2% (=)

Atlantic
LIB 52% (-1)
NDP 26% (+7)
CON 19% (-6)
GRN 2% (=)

Quebec
LIB 42% (-1)
NDP 23% (+4)
BQ 20% (-2)
CON 12% (-3)
GRN 1% (=)

Ontario
LIB 40% (=)
CON 33% (-3)
NDP 24% (+4)
GRN 2% (-1)

Prairies
NDP 35% (+10)
CON 35% (-10)
LIB 28% (+1)
GRN 2% (-1)

Alberta
CON 62% (+7)
LIB 21% (-7)
NDP 11% (-3)
GRN 4% (+1)

BC
LIB 41% (+8)
NDP 27% (+2)
CON 26% (-12)
GRN 5% (+3)

 

If Trudeau were lib leader and Prairies is clearly return to NDP


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Ipurrigakko:

 

I don't think I have ever thanked you for the analysis you do with the polls. Thanks very much. I agree with you about how frustrating it is reading how people would vote Lib because of Trudeau with no idea where he stands on anything or what he'd actually do. It just goes to show that it is going to be up to the NDP to show people this time around what the differences are and what you get if you vote Lib. This has always been true, but maybe with Trudeau as leader it will give the NDP a real chance to make the case beacause you know the LPC will try to sell Trudeau as change. Messagin, messaging, messaging, this is what it is going to be about. The nice thing that we have going for us is Tom Mulcair. He's smart, people like him once they get to know him, and most importatnly he isnt' afraid of anything. We need to start being like him too.


As one of my real heros, Alan Grayson says, Courage.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

Time for Elizabeth May to start calling on the Liberals and Greens to stand down in Durham so that the "progressive" vote is not split and the NDP can defeat the Conservatives:

Globe and Mail wrote:
The survey of 422 randomly selected voters in Durham suggests that Conservative candidate Erin O’Toole would have taken 46 per cent of the ballots if the vote had been held last week. NDP candidate Larry O’Connor had the support of 24 per cent of respondents while Liberal Grant Humes had 20 per cent.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

Looking at the poll numbers it seems to me like Trudeau's extra support comes almost exclusively from the NDP.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Felixr:

What you wrote makes sense and my answer is, like it always does. This time the NDP MUST talk about what voting Liberal actually means. We need to define the once and for all as the Corporate lackeys that they actaully are. I still say this election is going to be about messaging. We simply have to do an effective job at this. It isn't good enough to discuss policy. People have got to be shown what voting Lib means.


janfromthebruce
Online
Joined: Apr 24 2007

I think that at this point in time, Trudeau and the Liberals have done nothing and getting concerned it way out of hand. Just relax.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

i am calculate how many candidate get facebook page "like", they are almost same as forum research percent

 

Victoria
Murray Rankin     56% (609) vs 47%
Donald Galloway 18% (199) vs 20%
Dan Gann        -  11% (122) vs 16%
Paul Summerville 14% (157) vs 16%

Durham
Erin O'toole        35% (349) vs 46%
Larry O'connor   31% (307) vs 24%
Grant Humes      22% (212) vs 20%
Virginia Ervin         9% (89)  vs    6%
OTH (Andrew)        3% (31)  vs   4%  


Calgary-Centre
Chris Turner       41% (726) vs 11%
Joan Crockatt    30%  (533) vs 48%
Harvey Locke     19%  (340) vs 28%
Dan Meades        9%   (158) vs 8%
OTH (Ben)            2%   (35) vs   5%

so Durham going to NDP, remind me of Kitchener-Waterloo first goes 20% to 30% then 42% and now 40%


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

I'm only temporarily concerned about Justin Trudeau. Once the fix is in, the NDP is going to have to show he's just as hypocritical and amoral as the Liberals that came before him. His voting record should be a good help in this regard. With so little political experience or gravitas he is going to have to rely on bluster a lot. The NDP can call him on his bluff at its most embarassing and inappropriate. The most damning thing, from my perspective, for a NEW, YOUNG leader would be to have no new ideas or represent no change. That destroys any advantage he supposedly has, especially if his hypocrisy puts him beyond appeals to idealism. Lastly, his most obvious weakness, inexperience, is a sharp sword to have him fall on...at the right moment.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

There is a real threat here--Here is the scenario:

 

Trudeau hyped by Liberal media boosters could poll up to majority territory. Then as he is brought down by both NDP and Conservative exposures of his weaknesses he fall to below the amount of support needed to win. The distraction can help the Conservatives. The confusion in voters' minds as to which opposition party is best able to take out the Cons sets in and in the end we could come out pretty much where we are now. The Liberals on election day may not be able to improve much but the confusion, distraction and splits allow the Conservatives to win again. those thinking this could not happen are being too optimistic. Trudeau does not need to win to cause a problem -- he can simply stall the progress of the NDP to take out the Cons.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

There is a real threat here--Here is the scenario:

 

Trudeau hyped by Liberal media boosters could poll up to majority territory. Then as he is brought down by both NDP and Conservative exposures of his weaknesses he fall to below the amount of support needed to win. The distraction can help the Conservatives. The confusion in voters' minds as to which opposition party is best able to take out the Cons sets in and in the end we could come out pretty much where we are now. The Liberals on election day may not be able to improve much but the confusion, distraction and splits allow the Conservatives to win again. those thinking this could not happen are being too optimistic. Trudeau does not need to win to cause a problem -- he can simply stall the progress of the NDP to take out the Cons.

All this says is that once again the NDP has to be a more attractive alternative to liberal voters than the Liberal Party. I'm hopeful Tom can do that.


kropotkin1951
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Joined: Jun 6 2002

felixr wrote:

All this says is that once again the NDP has to be a more attractive alternative to liberal voters than the Liberal Party. I'm hopeful Tom can do that.

But how do they attract the voters who used to vote Liberal without becoming a liberal party in everything except name?  The political calculations are of course easy.  There are more voters in the middle of the spectrum so ergo the NDP must move to the centre.  If successful the NDP will displace the Liberals and becomes the Northern Democratic Party and then they will get to run as the lesser of evils no matter what their record is. That seems to be many partisan NDP supporters favourite fantasy.

Canada needs constitutional reform or at bare minimum a change to the electoral system.  We are way beyond "consultation" on electoral systems.  Some form of MMP is needed for the 2019 election not as something to talk about and dither on till at least 2023.  Will any party dare to run with a platform promising to implement MMP not just "study" it.  Its a good idea that needs enacting not something to talk about.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Mulcai-led NDP is in 1st place in the latest poll, and  in 1st place or tied for 1st place in 3 of the 5 most recent polls - not too shabby! Smile

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% /

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

7934


janfromthebruce
Online
Joined: Apr 24 2007

Thank you North Report for bringing sanity to this thread, without the Justin hype.


David Young
Online
Joined: Dec 9 2007

And over at Pundit's Guide, Alice reported that the NDP surpassed the Liberals in fund-raising during the third quarter of 2012.

felixr...

The NDP will succeed in taking votes from the Liberals by running such a slate of impressive candidates that the voters will have the confidence that voting NDP in 2015 will be a legitimate choice for getting rid of the Conservatives.  That's never happened before.

The combination of a Leader that Canadians think is up to the job to be Prime Minister, the slate of great candidates, and the funds raised that will finance a campaign that's never been seen before...THAT is the way to win over enough voters to become government.

 


mmphosis
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Joined: Apr 28 2009

October 27, 2012 / Cons 31 / NDP 32 / Libs 27 / Bloc 6 / Green 4 / error ±2.0 pp

hypothetical Trudeau-led Liberals to win majority PDF (forumresearch.com)


Doug
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Joined: Apr 17 2001

Which is all lovely and good for his leadership campaign, but unlike his father, Justin isn't going to be getting an election right after winning the leadership. There's lots of opportunity for successful attacks and for screw-ups.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

Finally, the 308 does some actual polling analysis, instead of just running the numbers through a spreadsheet:

the numbers reported by Forum on how respondents voted in the 2011 federal election are problematic. They show a vote share of 35% for the Tories (five points below the actual result), 27% for the NDP (-4), 25% for the Liberals (+6), 6% for the Bloc (correct), 5% for the Greens (+1), and 3% for other parties (+2).

So consider this. The poll is either accidentally or deliberately surveying more Liberals, and under-surveying Conservatives and New Democrats. And in spite of that, the NDP are still basically tied with the Tories. If you weight the sample properly, STILL a two way tie with the tories, and the best Justin can do is help Liberals earn a three-way statistical tie. (Not a 10 point lead.)

Keep in mind that Forum polling said we would have a Wildrose government in Alberta and a Conservative landslide in Ontario.

This is why I hate polling. Not because it's completely useless. But because for all the analysis that you could draw out from it, people just say "great! so this is how the election will go!"

The way I like to use polls is more of a measure of potential attitudes, ahead of an election. (Which, in this case, is still 3 years away.)

And in this case, this poll doesn't tell me anything I didn't already know before the last election: voting is fluid, there are a lot of people torn between two choices (not just NDP-Liberal, but NDP-Conservative), people who aren't voting NDP still like the NDP, and likewise, people who aren't voting Liberal still have some affinity towards the Liberals. Which means that anyone could win, under the right circumstances.

(But it will probably be a minority/coalition government, unless regional strongholds kick in.)

The point isn't to sit back and watch the polls, crying and cheering from week to week. The point is to respect how soft these numbers are, and have conversations with people about the direction of this country. You have more influence than you think.


Debater
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Joined: Apr 17 2009

Ippurigakko wrote:

Forum Research on oct 1,

Toronto only

           CON / LIB / NDP / GRN
total    32%   31%  30%      4%
18-34  30%   26%  31%      8%
35-44  22%   30%  39%      7%
45-54  27%   39%  31%      1%
55-64  36%   26%  23%      4%
Male   35%   29%  31%      3%
Female 30% 32%  30%      5%
EastY  21%  29%   44%     5%
NorthY 37% 33%  24%      2%
Eto-Y  34%   33%  26%      4%
Scarb 41%   26%  25%      6%
East   32%   30%  29%      5%
West  33%  31%   32%      3%
OPC   90%    6%     3%      0%
OLIB  12%   72%   14%     2%
ONDP   7%  16%   74%     2%
OGRN   8%  10%   11%   69%

Trudeau
LIB 40%, CON 30%, NDP 23%, GRN 4%

blah blah blah about Trudeau!!!!!!!! Media news too much about trudeau that why ppl pay attention and attract him! Canadian ppl are cheap! too easy to think Liberal can save Canada. Yeah whatever! I'd call them uneducated/ignorant.

Why are you so full of hate?  When you make comments like that, you don't sound like a social democrat or someone who is following the ideals of Broadbent & Layton.  When you lash out at Canadians for supporting Trudeau and call them names, it makes you sound ignorant to talk about the Canadian people that way.

Btw, let's not forget that the Liberals & NDP may need to work together after the next election in some type of government arrangement, because it IS too soon to know who will win and by how much.

From the very first time I posted here back in 2009, my objective was to foster co-operation between Liberal & NDP voters.  I myself was an Ed Broadbent supporter many years back.  I have worked for both parties over the years.


janfromthebruce
Online
Joined: Apr 24 2007

MSM corporate interests lies in ensuring that the two corporate parties are only viable. Thus they pump for Trudeau the manor born and leisure upper class persona so that a "real social democratic party" does not ever be seen as viable. Once elected, as a federal NDP govt, it has no more meme of saying they don't have the gravis to rule.

It's a mug's game.

Take note that in Ontario, prominent provincial liberals are not running again and eyeing a federal run. After using Ontario provincial treasury for their "political gain" and most definitely warn out their welcome, they are considering a federal run at the trough. And they see Justin as their ticket to the pork barrel.

Take note, this is not about "new blood" but just all the pretend stuff. All those young idealistic supporters for Justin mania will be only good enough to leaflet for the shiny one - because only the powerful and moneyed will be on the ticket.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Debater:

I will take a go. First of all, we are not full of hate. So, knock that off.

The majority of people posting here are either committed, and often card carrying New Democrats, who have always been so, or disaffected Libs who, having watched the LPC run left and govern right, realized that their allegence rested with a real left wing party, the NDP. We have a variety of backgrounds, and experiences, and come here having notice over and over how the LPC has run left, and governed right, united in a common desire to help elect a true left wing, and committed socially and politically progressive party that does not compromise itself for reasons of a pragmatism that results in legislation which hurts oridnary, working Canadians.

You have shown yourself over and over incapable of understanding that most of here simply know the LPC is not committed to Social Justice or fairness in any way. It seems it doesn't matter how many times we explain the reasons to you, you ignore, deflect, or attack seeminly oblvious to what has been said to you via written text. But, it seems that not only does whatever people write to you seem to go over your head, you leacture, patronize, and insult many of us in one way or another. Then after proclaiming your rightousness, you protest how anyone could possibly doubt your good intentions. I am sorry my friend, but that simply makes no sense at all. For my money, you seem to me, to be one of the most socially inept people I have ever known. You step all over people without any apparent comprehension that you have, and then proclaim surprise and dismay when you are called out for it. If anyone ever goes after you, you complain of being attacked without reason and demand apology. To say the least, that makes no sense.

There has been admonition after admonition on this board that people treat you well, some of that aimed at me. To say the least, it is hard to take that, given how impervious you seem to be to what is said to you. Its like you are living in this littel bubble of conciousness where the world you see is just not the one that exists. I'll be honset with you, I don't partiucalry like you. I think you are smug, condescending, and cocneited. On top of that, it takes all of my restraint not to want to verbally hammer you into next year.

I have decided that I want to stay around here and not be banned, so, I will obey the admonition to treat you with civility. But to say the least, I don't expect much from you in return. But so it goes.

For my money, I hope the NDP doesn't have to support the LPC. You guys will do what you always do, plot and intrigue, and wait for your chance to use such a coaltion to vault yourselves into majority status, just as you have done in the past. Debater your party is full of people of ill will. My MP, proclaims he is "pro choice", but voted in favor of establishing a committe to define when life beigns. Why would he do that, unless he wanted some limit put on a women's right to decide for herself what to do with her body? There can be no other explanation. You would have to be deliourisly navie to think he had any other motiviation. He represents what is the makeup of your party. A scheming, conniving, plotting, insincre swill of ill will and false intent. To expect that I would ever want to see the NDP  "co-operate" is to say the least, ridiculous.

Remember, you asked, so I answered. Don't complain about the reply. Why do we hate eh? My answer back to you Debater, is, project much?


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Jan, I just saw your post. You nailed it again!


jerrym
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Joined: May 30 2009

jerrym wrote:

Here is a comparison of the 2011 federal riding results with the results of the Forum poll for these by elections.

2011/2012  Durham       Victoria       Calgary Centre

Con%       54.5/46        23.6/16        57.7/48

Lib%        17.9/20        14/16          17.5/28

NDP%      21.1/24        50.8/47        14.9/8

Green%    5.4/6           11.4/20        9.9/11

(The federal results are from http://www.scribd.com/doc/54674886/2011-Federal-Election-Results-by-Riding)

 

The Libs have only made a significant gain in Calgary Centre (10.5%), which may be a result of Mulcair's "Dutch disease" comments (which have been received more favourably elsewhere than in the oilpatch) and the fact that the NDP candidate has only just been selected, suggesting that Trudeau's coattails are not that strong. In Durham the Libs' percentage increase (2.1%) is within the Forum margin of error and less than the NDP increase (2.9%) despite the fact that the Lib candidate was selected much earlier. Furthermore, the Libs have fallen into a last place tie with the Cons, behind the Greens, in Victoria,where the NDP has a 27% margiin.

So much for Trudeaumania.

 

Debater my comments, such as the one above, and the vast majority of other comments simply reflect our opinions based on the information on hand as we see it. Everyone sees the world through their own lens and value systems and differences in valuations of political effect do not mean that someone hates those who have different believes. Your comment is an extreme overreaction. 

 


janfromthebruce
Online
Joined: Apr 24 2007

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Jan, I just saw your post. You nailed it again!

Thanks Arthur.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Canadians will have a choice in the next election whether to vote to continue the policies of the right like Trudeau and Harper or to go with the NDP.

The most recent of the Liberal Party of Canada's Prime Ministers put his own companies offshore to avoid Canadian income taxes, Canada's labour laws, and Canada's environmental protection laws. If that is the kind of reprersentation you want in Ottawa by all means vote Liberal.

Times have changed since the Trudeau-Chretien era, and there is a new kid in town - his name is Mulcair. Laughing

 

Mulcai-led NDP is in 1st place in the latest poll, and  in 1st place or tied for 1st place in 3 of the 5 most recent polls - not too shabby! Smile

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% /

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

8430

 


NorthReport
Offline
Joined: Jul 6 2008

This post is quite offensive and has been flagged for "baiting"

Debater wrote:

Ippurigakko wrote:

Forum Research on oct 1,

Toronto only

           CON / LIB / NDP / GRN
total    32%   31%  30%      4%
18-34  30%   26%  31%      8%
35-44  22%   30%  39%      7%
45-54  27%   39%  31%      1%
55-64  36%   26%  23%      4%
Male   35%   29%  31%      3%
Female 30% 32%  30%      5%
EastY  21%  29%   44%     5%
NorthY 37% 33%  24%      2%
Eto-Y  34%   33%  26%      4%
Scarb 41%   26%  25%      6%
East   32%   30%  29%      5%
West  33%  31%   32%      3%
OPC   90%    6%     3%      0%
OLIB  12%   72%   14%     2%
ONDP   7%  16%   74%     2%
OGRN   8%  10%   11%   69%

Trudeau
LIB 40%, CON 30%, NDP 23%, GRN 4%

blah blah blah about Trudeau!!!!!!!! Media news too much about trudeau that why ppl pay attention and attract him! Canadian ppl are cheap! too easy to think Liberal can save Canada. Yeah whatever! I'd call them uneducated/ignorant.

Why are you so full of hate?  When you make comments like that, you don't sound like a social democrat or someone who is following the ideals of Broadbent & Layton.  When you lash out at Canadians for supporting Trudeau and call them names, it makes you sound ignorant to talk about the Canadian people that way.

Btw, let's not forget that the Liberals & NDP may need to work together after the next election in some type of government arrangement, because it IS too soon to know who will win and by how much.

From the very first time I posted here back in 2009, my objective was to foster co-operation between Liberal & NDP voters.  I myself was an Ed Broadbent supporter many years back.  I have worked for both parties over the years.


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