latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NR, Lol!

NorthReport

Jan 19/13

Angus Reid

C- 35%

N - 29%

L - 22%

NorthReport

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Abacus Polling

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Abacus / 32% / +3% / 34% / -2% / 22% / -- / 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep '12 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug '12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  32% / -- / 36% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Angus Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Anus Reid / 29% / -4% / 35% / Flat / 22% / +3% /

Jan '13 / Angus Reid / 33% / - 2% /  35% / +1% / 19% / 0% /

Jun '12 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid / 32% / -- / 35% / -- / 20% / -- / 

 

EKOS

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / EKOS / 26% / -6% / 32% / +2% / 24% / +4% / 
Jul '12 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun '12 / EKOS / 29% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 29% / -- / 30% / -- / 21% / -- /

 

Environics

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep '12 / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun '12 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Forum

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 31% / -2% / 24% / -4%

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct '12 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep '12 / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /29% / -- / 32% / -- / 26% / -- /

 

Harris Decima

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Ipsos Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /

 

Leger Marketing

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Leger / 30% / -- / 35% / -- / 18% / -- / 

Previous election accuracy rating = 

Average Leger / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- /


Nanos Research

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 29% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / --

14678

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

So basically with all the noise in polls, no real change. Given the right polling of voters, the Tories and the NDP might be tied. How the hell can the Tories be tied with the NDP? What gives with Canaidans? I guess it'll take more people unable to get EI before this changes. Pathetic.

David Young

Arthur, I believe the reason why the Conservatives are still tied with the NDP is that they feed on the natural instinct in a certain % of the population who have been conditioned since birth to fear the unknown (the NDP), and thus are encouraged to 'stay with the devil you know'.

After the media love-in for Trudeaumania Jr., to see the NDP maintaining numbers that high is very encouraging for me.

Once the candidates for the 2015 election start being nominated next year, and Canadians see the quality of the team Mulcair will be leading next time, that's when I want to see the poll numbers climb.

 

Aristotleded24

David and Arthur, I'll make the same point I've said before (and will probably say many times again) about the parallels I see between current polling numbers and the polling in between the 2004 and 2006 federal elections:

In that interim period, the Liberals were grappling with the Sponsorship Scandal. In spite of the negative press the Liberals were receiving, the Conservatives could never hold their lead over the Liberals for more than one consecutive poll. I'm willing to bet that people on right-wing discussion boards were expressing as much frustration at that situation as we are now over the Conservatives and NDP still being tied. But in 2004-2006, the Conservatives were building the foudation for their breakthrough, just as the NDP is building its foundation right now.

Besides, I think it's better long-term to be tied with the Conservatives for the next few years. As long as the 2 parties remain tied, the NDP will realise that there is still much work to do. Better than having a massive lead and letting the air out of the balloon in the lead-up to 2015.

David Young

I agree with you wholeheartedly, Artistotleded24.

I was just trying to give Arthur some positive karma (the Jack Layton influence!) on the negative vibes he keeps giving since that (insert adjective of choice here) Lamoureux got elected in Winnipeg North.

At least you've had a New Democrat elected where you live, Arthur.  Here in S.S.S.M., we're still waiting.

 

Brachina

Aristotleded24 wrote:
David and Arthur, I'll make the same point I've said before (and will probably say many times again) about the parallels I see between current polling numbers and the polling in between the 2004 and 2006 federal elections:

In that interim period, the Liberals were grappling with the Sponsorship Scandal. In spite of the negative press the Liberals were receiving, the Conservatives could never hold their lead over the Liberals for more than one consecutive poll. I'm willing to bet that people on right-wing discussion boards were expressing as much frustration at that situation as we are now over the Conservatives and NDP still being tied. But in 2004-2006, the Conservatives were building the foudation for their breakthrough, just as the NDP is building its foundation right now.

Besides, I think it's better long-term to be tied with the Conservatives for the next few years. As long as the 2 parties remain tied, the NDP will realise that there is still much work to do. Better than having a massive lead and letting the air out of the balloon in the lead-up to 2015.

I agree good point. We've seen polls move up and down alot as well, so its just a matter of time before, we rise again. People obsess over polls because its easier then studying the fundamentals and interpting the long term effects. Things like the Lethbridge declaration, Having his MPs fanning out across Newfoundland before Parliament began, the extra measure of respect and attention for PEI, fighting the Gateway Pipeline on behalf of BC, fighting for the Manufacturing sector especially in central Canada, building a direction for the party with an easy to understand theme of three point sustainablity, boosting fundraising to the point where we may have beaten the Liberals annual fundraising for the first time in 2012 and expanded the donar base, built riding inforstructure across the country especially Quebec which had little outside Montreal, masterful control of the political levers (enough to get himself listed as the 4th most powerful politician in Ottawa, 2nd most powerful Politician), a strong well trained, talented, and disciplined cacus, lack of baggage, and a leader who is one of the best debaters in Canada and who has a strong track record, and is building a well trained volunteer base. These are the fundmentals that get ignored by the msm in favour of polls and the fiction that is Justin Trudeau. That's why the media was caught flatfooted by the Orange Wave and why that will happen again in 2015.

NorthReport

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Abacus Polling

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Abacus / 32% / +3% / 34% / -2% / 22% / -- / 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep '12 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug '12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  32% / -- / 36% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Angus Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Anus Reid / 29% / -4% / 35% / Flat / 22% / +3% /

Jan '13 / Angus Reid / 33% / - 2% /  35% / +1% / 19% / 0% /

Jun '12 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid / 32% / -- / 35% / -- / 20% / -- / 

 

EKOS

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / EKOS / 26% / -6% / 32% / +2% / 24% / +4% / 
Jul '12 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun '12 / EKOS / 29% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 29% / -- / 30% / -- / 21% / -- /

 

Environics

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep '12 / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun '12 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Forum

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Forum / 28% / -- / 35% / +4% / 25% / +1% / 7% / ?? / 4% / 07% / ?? / 04% /

Dec '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 31% / -2% / 24% / -4%

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct '12 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep '12 / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /28% / -- / 33% / -- / 26% / -- /

 

Harris Decima

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Ipsos Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /

 

Leger Marketing

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Leger / 30% / -- / 35% / -- / 18% / -- / 

Previous election accuracy rating = 

Average Leger / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- /


Nanos Research

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 29% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / --

14678

----------

Conservative party sees surge in support since last month, new poll shows

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/01/18/conservative-party-sees-surge-in...

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Its all in the noise NR, I think this is just more of the same. Not much there, there.

David Young

As if a National Post story about politics is to be taken seriously!

 

JKR

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Its all in the noise NR, I think this is just more of the same. Not much there, there.

This poll seems to indicates that Harper and the Conservatives electoral support has increased a bit as a result of Idle No More.  It will be interesting to see if future polls reflect this uptick in Conservative support.

Forum Research Poll - Jan. 18, 2003

Con: 36
NDP: 28
Lib: 25
Bloc: 7
Grn: 4

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

JKR, still some noise. The NDP needs to push harder but even with Trudeau, the Libs are coming down and I think in the long run, the NDP will be fine. I do have to say though that I simply cannot understand what the hell people are thinking they will get with Trudeau. It is obvious they are not listening to what he is saying. The NDP needs to draw him out. I also have to say that I felt your post seemed to be, at least to me, a bit of a rub of my nose in the dirt. Ok, fine. But, I didn't like it much, but you can do what you want. I stand by what I said.

mark_alfred

Trudeau seems to be doing similar campaigning to what Mulcair did during the NDP leadership contest, in that he's not laying out very specific policy at this time.  In Mulcair's case, he stated that it would be premature to lay out specific fair tax policy in the present in response to some of Topp's challenges (since Topp had been a bit more specific).  Likewise, Trudeau seems to be sticking to the line of wishing to get feedback from the population first before dictating specifics of policy that he would follow.  Rather than specifics, it's a lot of feel-good platitudes about things.  This often seems to work for politicians.

Regardless, I think the NDP need not get distracted by the 3rd Party side-show of Trudeau and the Liberals.  I feel it's best that the NDP not "draw him out" at this time.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

More Nanos mischief. From the Huff Po, in part:

"

New Nanos online representative surveys reveal that the number of NDP and Liberal supporters in Quebec is at a dead heat.

Who would Quebec voters consider voting for?
- NDP 56.7%
- Liberal 55.7%
- Conservative 37.0%
- Green 26.8%
- BQ 17.2%
Nanos also found almost one in two NDP voters in Quebec would consider casting their ballot for a Liberal."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/01/24/liberals-poll-ndp-canada_n_2539064.html

Anyone have thoughts on this? I personally don't believe this, but there is no doubt that the MSM's pushing of the Trudeau narrative is starting to hurt the NDP.

Stockholm

While it might be true that half of NDP voters in Quebec would "consider" voting Liberal, Nanos's poll also says that half of current liberal voters in Quebec would consider voting NDP!

Saying you would "consider" voting for party "x" is pretty weak - most people - unless they are a dyed in the wool partisan - would probably at least CONSIDER voting for almost anyone!

addictedtomyipod

On Jan 23 Power & Politics, Evan Soloman and Nik Nanos gave the viewers the number of Quebec NDP'ers that would consider voting Liberal.  They seemed to think it was best to leave the viewers hanging on what the numbers would be if Liberal voters would consider voting NDP.  I feel that the CBC is always pushing the Liberal Party.  They also are broadcasting all of the national Liberal leadership debates.  They never aired  the NDP debates, only the final vote for leader.  Such a double standard.

It is no wonder the NDP numbers are down in the polls with all this Liberal grandstanding by the CBC.

NorthReport

At least it is clear to you what has been apparent to me for an extended period of time now. Actually the CBC News Dept has probably been rah, rah, LPC since its inception. Listening to them the last couple of days gushing over how Bob Rae saved Spence frrom commiting suicide was rather pathetic. CBC News pimping for the Liberals is no different than the way Sun News pimps for the Cons. Both News Departments makes one want to vomit.

addictedtomyipod wrote:

On Jan 23 Power & Politics, Evan Soloman and Nik Nanos gave the viewers the number of Quebec NDP'ers that would consider voting Liberal.  They seemed to think it was best to leave the viewers hanging on what the numbers would be if Liberal voters would consider voting NDP.  I feel that the CBC is always pushing the Liberal Party.  They also are broadcasting all of the national Liberal leadership debates.  They never aired  the NDP debates, only the final vote for leader.  Such a double standard.

It is no wonder the NDP numbers are down in the polls with all this Liberal grandstanding by the CBC.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Canadians also want the Constitution reopened to get Quebec on board and Canadians want Canada to recognize the UN Declaration on Indigenous Peoples adopterd in Canada as well.

How many times has the American constitution been amended, so what's the big deal asked Don Davies with Mable Elmore and Kerry Jang  in attendance (all 3 levels of government were represented), at a Town Hall Meeting tonite in Vancouver. I thought it was a good question. I think 14 times is the answer. 

 

POLL: Canadians want PM’s powers limited

 

http://www.gigcity.ca/2013/01/23/poll-canadians-want-pms-powers-limited/

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NorthReport wrote:

At least it is clear to you what has been apparent to me for an extended period of time now. Actually the CBC News Dept has probably been rah, rah, LPC since its inception. Listening to them the last couple of days gushing over how Bob Rae saved Spence frrom commiting suicide was rather pathetic. CBC News pimping for the Liberals is no different than the way Sun News pimps for the Cons. Both News Departments makes one want to vomit.

addictedtomyipod wrote:

On Jan 23 Power & Politics, Evan Soloman and Nik Nanos gave the viewers the number of Quebec NDP'ers that would consider voting Liberal.  They seemed to think it was best to leave the viewers hanging on what the numbers would be if Liberal voters would consider voting NDP.  I feel that the CBC is always pushing the Liberal Party.  They also are broadcasting all of the national Liberal leadership debates.  They never aired  the NDP debates, only the final vote for leader.  Such a double standard.

It is no wonder the NDP numbers are down in the polls with all this Liberal grandstanding by the CBC.

I am fed up with the CBC. On what basis did they claim Rae's role of "saviour of life"? And why can't the NDP get the CBC to acknowledge the real story, that the NDP has been there right from the start? What is gong on? I don't undrestand it.

mark_alfred

addictedtomyipod wrote:

It is no wonder the NDP numbers are down in the polls with all this Liberal grandstanding by the CBC.

Any pub in Toronto that shows news (rather than just exclusive sports via TSN) generally shows either CNN or CP24.  I get very odd looks when I request CBC.  So, I'm skeptical about the thought that an editorial slant by the CBC can affect the attitude of the population at large.

thorin_bane

Because media is owned and the owners don't want that. And when you can't own it, you find people to put in charge that share your views.

NorthReport

Everything considered, the Mulcair-led NDP seem to be holding their own in the polls, and are probably where they want to be at the present time. 2 years to go.

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Abacus Polling

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Abacus / 32% / +3% / 34% / -2% / 22% / -- / 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep '12 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug '12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  32% / -- / 36% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Angus Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Anus Reid / 29% / -4% / 35% / Flat / 22% / +3% /

Jan '13 / Angus Reid / 33% / - 2% /  35% / +1% / 19% / 0% /

Jun '12 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid / 32% / -- / 35% / -- / 20% / -- / 

 

EKOS

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / EKOS / 26% / -6% / 32% / +2% / 24% / +4% / 
Jul '12 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun '12 / EKOS / 29% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 29% / -- / 30% / -- / 21% / -- /

 

Environics

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep '12 / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun '12 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Forum

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Forum / 28% / -- / 35% / +4% / 25% / +1% / 7% / ?? / 4% / 07% / ?? / 04% /

Dec '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 31% / -2% / 24% / -4%

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct '12 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep '12 / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /28% / -- / 33% / -- / 26% / -- /

 

Harris Decima

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Ipsos Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /

 

Leger Marketing

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Leger / 30% / -- / 35% / -- / 18% / -- / 

Previous election accuracy rating = 

Average Leger / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- /


Nanos Research

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 29% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / --

--------------

15663

 

Ippurigakko

Abacus Data -  Feb 6, 2013
CON 35% (+1)
NDP 31% (-1)
LIB 21% (-1)
BQ 6% (=)
GRN 6% (=)

              CON     NDP    LIB    GRN  BQ
Atlantic    28%    31%   29%   11%
Quebec   15%    34%   19%     5%  26%
Ontario    38%   30%    26%    6%
Prairies    51%   27%    21%     1%
Alberta     62%   17%   16%     5%
BC           38%   40%   14%     8%

Ontario
Toronto    26%    27%   40%     6%
GTA         44%    25%   25%     6%
Ham-Niag 40%    37%   12%   11%
Eastern     43%    29%   26%     3%
Southwest 41%    33%  21%      5%
Northern   38%    41%  12%      9%

 

http://abacusdata.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/FEDERALPolitical-Update_...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Passed the Libs in Atlantic Canada, good.

janfromthebruce

A new poll done exclusively for QMI Agency shows that voters in Canada continue to remain divided largely along the same partisan lines as they did in the 2011 general election.

Abacus Data found that, across the country, the Conservatives have the support of 35% of voters, the NDP 31% and the Liberals 21%.

"Although the Liberal leadership race is in full swing, it has had little effect on Liberal fortunes across the country," Abacus CEO David Coletto said. "Support for the Conservatives is down from the 2011 election but neither the NDP nor the Liberals have gained either.

So the poll was commissioned by Sun Media, and so it appears Trudeaumania is not taking hold. Funny how no matter how much the MSM push Trudeau, and either under report NDP or openingly bash the NDP, we just remain where we are.

Mulcair is keeping up the image and of course the rest of our MPs. Good work.

 

pebbles

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Passed the Libs in Atlantic Canada, good.

All three major parties are within the regional MoE.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

pebbles wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Passed the Libs in Atlantic Canada, good.

All three major parties are within the regional MoE.

 

The point I was trying to make is that prior to this poll, the LPC was well ahead of the NDP in the high 30s. I personally never believed it. This poll is another snap shot in time. But what it does show is either I was right about how well or poorly the NDP was doing in Atlantic Canada, or the LPC is falling in support. As to MOE, if anything, this poll shows that in actual fact, with the exception of Saskatachewan, and Alberta, and to a lesser degree Ontario, it continues to be a dog fight, and, the NDP is holding its own despite all the MSM help to the LPC and the Boy Wonder. It may be Canadians are not proving to be as easily duped this time around, and frankly, this makes feel a little better. This is one snap shot in time, but I find it a little bit comforting. It does at least indicated the NDP is doing a fair job in speaking to voters and representing their interests in Ottawa. It also suggest things may not be so easy for the boy wonder as LPC partisans want us to believe.

Ippurigakko

Ookkaayy Forum Research feb 6

CON 32% (-4)
LIB 30% (+5)
NDP 26% (-2)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 4% (=)

Justin
LIB 41% (+6)
CON 30% (-3)
NDP 20% (-1)
BQ 6% (-1)
GRN 2% (-1)

Rae

              CON     NDP    LIB    GRN  BQ
Atlantic   31%    29%   34%     5%
Quebec   14%    29%   31%     2%  24%
Ontario    37%   25%    34%    3%
Prairies    36%   25%    35%     4%
Alberta     59%    9%     22%     9%
BC           34%   37%   19%     9%

Trudeau

              CON     NDP    LIB    GRN  BQ
Atlantic    33%    17%   47%   3%
Quebec   12%    24%    41%    1%  22%
Ontario    33%   19%    45%    2%
Prairies    32%   19%    46%     2%
Alberta     56%     8%    29%     6%
BC           31%    35%    29%      4%

 

https://forumresearch.ca/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/98982_Fed...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well, what do you know, conflicting polls again.

The one thing I still have to ask is why the hell is Trudeaumania on the march? People really don't remember the effect of Lib budgets under Trudeau affected their lives. The thing that gets me the most is how Trudeau has remained completely untouched by his refusal to implement the recommendations of the Carter Commission. This is one of the main reaons our tax system is so unfair today. The fact he hasn't had to answer for this is one of the greatest injustices and failures of Canadian Historians. All the problems with our tax system trace back to this failure on Trudeau's outright refusal to do the right thing here. He is responsible for the continuence of a system based on economic injustice that hits the hardest of those least able to defend themselves. The ignorance of Canadians is disgraceful and to me so infruiating.

mark_alfred

When do the Liberals pick their leader (aka, when do they officially pick Trudeau)?  It'll be good to get these dual polls of one with and one without Trudeau out of the way.

NorthReport

You can toss that recent Forum Research poll in the trash can and it is just based on ands, ifs, or bits. It is basically a push poll.

NorthReport

Basically, seeing as the Liberals are all the rage,  the big news here today is that the LIbs drop  by 1%  Laughing

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote - alphabetically by pollster and then chronologically

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Abacus Polling

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge 

Feb '13 / Abacus / 31% / -1% / 35% / +1% / 21% / -1%

Dec '12 / Abacus / 32% / +3% / 34% / -2% / 22% / -- / 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep '12 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug '12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  31% / -1% / 35% / -1% / 22% / +2% /

 

Angus Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Anus Reid / 29% / -4% / 35% / Flat / 22% / +3% /

Jan '13 / Angus Reid / 33% / - 2% /  35% / +1% / 19% / 0% /

Jun '12 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid / 32% / -- / 35% / -- / 20% / -- / 

 

EKOS

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / EKOS / 26% / -6% / 32% / +2% / 24% / +4% / 
Jul '12 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun '12 / EKOS / 29% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 29% / -- / 30% / -- / 21% / -- /

 

Environics

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep '12 / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun '12 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Forum

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Forum / 28% / -- / 35% / +4% / 25% / +1% / 7% / ?? / 4% / 07% / ?? / 04% /

Dec '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 31% / -2% / 24% / -4%

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct '12 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep '12 / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /28% / -- / 33% / -- / 26% / -- /

 

Harris Decima

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Ipsos Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /

 

Leger Marketing

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Leger / 30% / -- / 35% / -- / 18% / -- / 

Previous election accuracy rating = 

Average Leger / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- /


Nanos Research

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 29% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / --

--------------

16175

 

 

 

NorthReport

Oh, my!

Poll indicates that Trudeau factor no major impact except in LPC  Laughing

While the name factor has been a factor in US politics, with political dynasties like the Bush's and Clinton's, a recent poll indicates that the candidacy of Justin Trudeau has had little impact outside the Liberal Party of Canada.The Liberal party of Canada (LPC) currently has nine candidates hopeful of winning the leadership. The front runners are widely seen as Justin Trudeau, son of former Prime Minister Pierre Elliot Trudeau, Marc Garneau, former head of the Canadian Space Agency and Toronto lawyer Martha Hall Findlay. The LPC has been all bubbly and has expected major gains in popularity. Despite the Trudeau factor a recent QMI Agency poll indicates that despite the Trudeau factor the LPC still trails Conservatives and New Democrats in polls.The poll finds that the support for political parties in Canada has remained virtually unchanged since the federal election in May 2011.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/343072

WebRepcurrentVotenoRatingnoWeight

NorthReport

Nanos poll

Conservatives hold lead, Liberals down from previous Nanos Poll

C - 34%

L  - 28%

N - 27%

http://www.netnewsledger.com/2013/02/11/nanos-poll-conservatives-hold-le...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Well, I suspect really that the numbers haven't changed all that much from the election NR. I think the numbers above show this.

NorthReport

 

Basically, seeing as the Liberals are all the rage,  the big news here today is that the LIbs drop  by 1% again in a second poll in a row  Laughing

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE / 101 / 165 /  35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 0 / 308

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote - alphabetically by pollster and then chronologically

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

May '11 / Gen Ele / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% / 7% / -3% / 4% / -3%


Abacus Polling

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge 

Feb '13 / Abacus / 31% / -1% / 35% / +1% / 21% / -1%

Dec '12 / Abacus / 32% / +3% / 34% / -2% / 22% / -- / 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Sep '12 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Aug '12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Previous election accuracy rating = -18

Average / Abacus /  31% / -1% / 35% / -1% / 22% / +2% /

 

Angus Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Anus Reid / 29% / -4% / 35% / Flat / 22% / +3% /

Jan '13 / Angus Reid / 33% / - 2% /  35% / +1% / 19% / 0% /

Jun '12 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -9

Average / Angus Reid / 32% / -- / 35% / -- / 20% / -- / 

 

EKOS

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / EKOS / 26% / -6% / 32% / +2% / 24% / +4% / 
Jul '12 / EKOS / 32% / -0.1% / 30% / +0.9% / 20% / +0.3%

Jun '12 / EKOS / 29% / --- / 29% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -6

Average / EKOS / 29% / -- / 30% / -- / 21% / -- /

 

Environics

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep '12 / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Jun '12 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating = -16

Average / Environics / 35% / -- / 32% / -- / 20% / -- /

 

Forum

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Jan '13 / Forum / 28% / -- / 35% / +4% / 25% / +1% / 7% / ?? / 4% / 07% / ?? / 04% /

Dec '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 31% / -2% / 24% / -4%

Nov '12 / Forum / 28% / -- / 33% / -- / 28% / -- / 6% / -- / 4% / -- 

Oct '12 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /  

Sep '12 / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Forum /28% / -- / 33% / -- / 26% / -- /

 

Harris Decima

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -13

Average / Harris Decima /30% / -- / 32% / -- / 24% / --

 

Ipsos Reid

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Previous election accuracy rating =  -9

Average / Ipsos Reid/  34% / -- / 35% / -- / 22% / -- /

 

Leger Marketing

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Dec '12 / Leger / 30% / -- / 35% / -- / 18% / -- / 

Previous election accuracy rating = 

Average Leger / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- / -- /


Nanos Research

Date / Pollster / NDP / N-Cge / Cons / C-Cge / Libs / L-Chge / BQ / B-Cge / Grn / G-Cge

Feb '13 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 28% / -1% / 4.6% / -??/ 4.7% / ?? 

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /-- 

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30% / +0.1% / 32% / -1.2% / 25%/ -1.9%

Previous election accuracy rating = -7

Average / Nanos / 28% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% / -- / ?? / ?? / ?? / ??

--------------


 

 

 

 

WebRepcurrentVotenoRatingnoWeight

Debater

I see that North Report is doing his usual spinning of the numbers.

Bottom line is that the Liberals & NDP are tied in today's Nanos Poll and that this weekend's Forum Poll showed that with Justin Trudeau as leader the Liberals can be #1.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/02/08/liberals-under-justin-trudeau-co...

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

But of course it's premature for any party to be relying on polling numbers at this premature stage of the game.  The fluctuations in the latest Nanos poll are very minor and I notice that it was taken before the latest Brazeau scandal for the Conservatives.  According to this pre-Brazeau poll, the Cons are up 0.5%.

 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Movements that are less than the margin of error are irrelevant.  That is why the publish the margin of error. A 1% change is statistically insignificant.  The NDP is on cruise control and the Liberals are fighting to get a contenders spot so if the Libs fail to gain a good bounce from their leadership campaign then they are toast. Remains to be seen but unfortunately good hair can win elections in Canada. 

Trudeau's populist appeal reminds me of Vander Zalm.  If you trick the rubes you can have a long career without ever having an original idea. Sorry maybe cheap beer for the working guy was a Zalm idea.  I have a whole little book of his stupid sayings and he still kicked the NDP's ass and lately managed to get himself resurrected as a tax fighting hero.

Populism is always a powerful political force.  That is what Trudeau is trying for it remains to be seen whether he will be seen as the cool guy or a patrician pretender.

The numbers I am looking for are statistically relevant drops in the Conservative numbers.  If they start shedding some of their core support then they will lose even in a tight three way race.

Debater

I agree with you that minor movements within the margin of error are insignificant - that's what I was pointing out to North Report above since he likes to spin every poll a particular way.

Apart from the polls in which there is a large jump in Liberal support with Justin as leader, the parties have not moved a great deal since the last election.  The NDP often places ahead of the Liberals with numbers similar to what it got when Jack was leader, and the Liberals often get stuck in the low 20's, but have recovered from the low of 2011 when they fell below 20%.  In the case of the Nanos poll, the Liberals seem to do better and are in the high 20's.

What's interesting is that the Conservatives are struggling to maintain the level of support they got in 2011 even though they face a divided Opposition.  Harper has not only been unable to break the 40% barrier that he just missed out on in 2011, but he has fallen down into the Mid-30's.  It seems to be a struggle for the Conservatives just to get into the high 30's these days.  Looks like Harper may never hit 40% in an election.

Could be a 3-way race in 2015.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater, I'd be pretty carful about accusing ANYONE of spin if I were you.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

K, great analysis as always. Remember, there is always "Beautiful Fantasy Gardens...FANTASTIC!!!!!!". Laughing

Debater

Monday, Feb. 11 2013

Popular support for the NDP slid during the second half of 2012, leaving the Official Opposition behind the Conservatives and locked in a statistical tie with the Liberals, a new poll suggests.

----

At the same time, support for the Liberals has increased overall during the past eight months, the poll suggests.

---

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-slips-behind-tories-vir...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater, do you think that those of us posting here are incapable of reading an article and interpreting it for ourselves? Obviously the answer is yes, based on your cherry picking. It must be a Lib thing; you guys seem to think you have to explain everything to we, the great unwashed. Its patronizing, you know? Oh, and by the way, given you ONLY show up here when the polls are good, why don't you do us, and yourself a favor and change your handle to Gloater? You KNOW you want to!

From Art, your Frat Boy pal!

Stockholm

VanderZalm was able to call an election the day after he won the Socred leadership and coast to a win before his weaknesses had a chance to manifest themselves. If Justin Trudeau wins the Liberal leadership in April he will face 2.5 long years before an election and that is a long time for his "shtick" to wear very thin on people.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Yeah, CBC just said the Liberals and NDP are in a virtual tie, as are the BQ and Greens.

jerrym

The key question in the next election for the Liberals will be whether Justin turns out to be a Bill Vander Zalm, who incidentally was a Liberal before becoming a Socred, or a Kim Campbell.

Campbell was chosen as the anointed one by the party establishment and heartily endorsed by the party establishment and media after the pre-convention polls showed her with a commanding lead that lasted into her early days as PM. However, as mistake followed mistake while PM and during the election campaign, the media tore into her as only they can with someone that once was their darling. The public then saw she was clearly not ready for the job, to put it kindly. The result - 2 seats for the Progressive Conservatives and an agonizing march to oblivion. 

Vander Zalm's populism, as noted above by kropotkin1951, swept him into power but his lack of governing skills and the many Socred scandals also led to the death of BC Social Credit party, after its ruling the province for 36 of the previous 39 years.

As for comparing Justin to his father, there is no comparison between a man who as Justice Minister brought about the "decriminalization of homosexual acts between consenting adults, the legalization of contraception, abortion and lotteries, new gun ownership restrictions as well as the authorization of breathalyzer tests on suspected drunk drivers", as well as having the guts to continue to stand up while rocks were being thrown at him during a St. Jean Baptiste day celebration (whatever your political beliefs on these issues), and a son who has not passed a single significant piece of legislation or, instead of showing the courage of his beliefs whether right or wrong, has during the Liberal leadership campaign ducked and weaved on every controversial question thrown his way. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Trudeau

jerrym

The key question in the next election for the Liberals will be whether Justin turns out to be a Bill Vander Zalm, who incidentally was a Liberal before becoming a Socred, or a Kim Campbell.

Campbell was chosen as the anointed one by the party establishment and heartily endorsed by the party establishment and media after the pre-convention polls showed her with a commanding lead that lasted into her early days as PM. However, as mistake followed mistake while PM and during the election campaign, the media tore into her as only they can with someone that once was their darling. The public then saw she was clearly not ready for the job, to put it kindly. The result - 2 seats for the Progressive Conservatives and an agonizing march to oblivion. 

Vander Zalm's populism, as noted above by kropotkin1951, swept him into power but his lack of governing skills and the many Socred scandals also led to the death of BC Social Credit party, after its ruling the province for 36 of the previous 39 years.

As for comparing Justin to his father, there is no comparison between a man who as Justice Minister brought about the "decriminalization of homosexual acts between consenting adults, the legalization of contraception, abortion and lotteries, new gun ownership restrictions as well as the authorization of breathalyzer tests on suspected drunk drivers", as well as having the guts to continue to stand up while rocks were being thrown at him during a St. Jean Baptiste day celebration (whatever your political beliefs on these issues are), and a son who has not passed a single significant piece of legislation or, instead of showing the courage of his beliefs whether right or wrong, has during the Liberal leadership campaign ducked and weaved on every controversial question thrown his way. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_Trudeau

adma

Another thing re Vander Zalm: his victory was also about Bob Skelly's failure.

Try as I might, I can't see Mulcair "failing" a la Skelly vs Trudeau.  But I *can* see Trudeau "failing" a la Skelly vs Harper.

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