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latest polling thread - 5 july, 2012

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felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

The party has to walk a fine line between fiscal prudence (i.e. banking as much money in the election warchest and ramping up the fundraising campaign) and defending Tom. I think that with these poll numbers dipping down to 29% while the Tories maintain a 7% lead and the Liberals are catching up is that very line being crossed.

Harper and the Conservatives have been focusing on negative ads without much effect. For this reason the NDP should (continue to) go positive. The ads should focus on Mulcair's record. They should do this for several reasons: 1) It fits with the theme of "introducing" the new leader 2) Mulcair is a problem for the NDP right now because his personal poll numbers have not caught up to the Layton heights 3) Political record is exactly Justin Trudeau's Achilles heel. Set up the frame early and watch Justin struggle with the fit. There are also great one-liners in Mulcair's record along the lines of, "as Liberal cabinet minister, Mulcair wasn't afraid to stand up to his own premier when it came to matters of principle..." (this last line could be waaaaay better written, but the idea is simple, the Liberals really stink but Mulcair doesn't because he's stood up to them, he's actually stood up for the things that they only say they believe in.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

What's with Harper not being able to balance the books - not a very good track record for the Cons who supposedly pride themselves on their economic prowess.

 

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

So who is Canada's Gallup?

 

Gallup is very upset at Nate Silver

The polling firm complains operations like FiveThirtyEight could spoil polling for everyone

It is impossible to read this as anything other than an attack on Nate Silver, who is by far the most prominent aggregator and analyzer of others’ polls currently operating today. And it simply reeks of sour grapes. During the campaign year, Silver consistently pointed out that Gallup’s results were oddly inconsistent with what other pollsters were finding. And he was right — Gallup got it wrong. It is not inappropriate to point that out. But Gallup presumes too much when it effectively threatens to take its surveys home and just stop playing.

OK, Nate Silver didn’t pick up the phone and call voters himself. And yes, it’s true, if all the polling organizations stop polling, Nate Silver will be out of a job. He might have to go back to crunching baseball stats. But he’s a smart guy, with an impressive track record. He’ll do fine. It seems foolish to blame him for crunching data that is publicly available for anyone to crunch. If he wasn’t good at what he does, he’d still be another anonymous poster hanging around the DailyKos forums. He’s been rewarded for getting things right.

Gallup faces a more unhappy future. If the company keeps getting the numbers wrong, the market will punish it. At that point, Gallup won’t be able to blame its sorry fate on anyone but its own incompetence.

 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
They should do what they doing for an Ad campaign what they are doing for the bielections, you can donate to the bielection campaigns instead of general renvue. They should allow us to donate directly to a Positive Ad campaign.

Aristotleded24
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Joined: May 24 2005

felixr wrote:
The party has to walk a fine line between fiscal prudence (i.e. banking as much money in the election warchest and ramping up the fundraising campaign) and defending Tom.

Exactly. I'm not advocating that the NDP do nothing, but the NDP can't beat the Conservatives at their own game of advertising. For one, the Conservatives have far more money, and two, a battle of negative advertising would just turn people off, which is the exact opposite of what Jack did when he was leader. Plus, if the NDP responds with pro-Mulcair ads, that just shows that the Conservatives have got to them. The NDP needs to be far more strategic about its response.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

I agree-- not just to save money for the warchest but also for a pre-election ad buy after the Liberals have done their leadership convention. Anything now would be wasteful (ads).

That said the NDP can be organizing other things that could get earned media.

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

NorthReport wrote:

So who is Canada's Gallup?

 

Gallup is very upset at Nate Silver

The polling firm complains operations like FiveThirtyEight could spoil polling for everyone

It is impossible to read this as anything other than an attack on Nate Silver, who is by far the most prominent aggregator and analyzer of others’ polls currently operating today. And it simply reeks of sour grapes. During the campaign year, Silver consistently pointed out that Gallup’s results were oddly inconsistent with what other pollsters were finding. And he was right — Gallup got it wrong. It is not inappropriate to point that out. But Gallup presumes too much when it effectively threatens to take its surveys home and just stop playing.

OK, Nate Silver didn’t pick up the phone and call voters himself. And yes, it’s true, if all the polling organizations stop polling, Nate Silver will be out of a job. He might have to go back to crunching baseball stats. But he’s a smart guy, with an impressive track record. He’ll do fine. It seems foolish to blame him for crunching data that is publicly available for anyone to crunch. If he wasn’t good at what he does, he’d still be another anonymous poster hanging around the DailyKos forums. He’s been rewarded for getting things right.

Gallup faces a more unhappy future. If the company keeps getting the numbers wrong, the market will punish it. At that point, Gallup won’t be able to blame its sorry fate on anyone but its own incompetence.

 

 

Who is Canada's Gallup, its a tossup. Nik Nanos or Strategic Strategies, or maybe to a lesser dergree, Grenier. Take you pick.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

See a previous post for polling history leading up to the last election.

Nate Silver pays a lot of attention to herding, and we should as well

 

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% 

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

friggen..... 38% to 30% (-8) and Lib 18% to 26% (+8) since June......


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

The Ipsos poll is very consistent with other polls lately. I'm actually cheered that the new "floor" for the NDP is second place at 30% even after weeks of non-stop 24 hour a day seven days a week hagiographical, fawning coverage of Justin Trudeau.

The headline really ought to be "Libs still 3rd despite weeks of media hype over Justin Trudeau"!


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

National Post show Ipsos-Reid graphic says

18-34 youth toward NDP 43% and LIB only 24% and CON 22% it make me think they dont care about or wont vote for Justinmania!

 

 


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Thanks Ipp for posting that. I'm with Stock on the NDP holding 2nd place with non stop Trudeau Jr. mania by MSM.

And after all the fawning by the media, Trudeau takes a hissy fit when one reporter was persistent in her questioning - his narisium was showing there, and his disdain for those he perceives beneath him.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

What are you referring to Jan?


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

With all due respect, if we don't agree with other politicians, let's stop attacking their personalities, and focus our disagreements on their respective political party's policies. 


jjuares
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Joined: Jan 21 2012

NorthReport wrote:

With all due respect, if we don't agree with other politicians, let's stop attacking their personalities, and focus our disagreements on their respective political party's policies. 

I used to believe that a politician's character ( I prefer this word over personality beause it refers to a differnt set of a persons skills) was out of bounds and we should only talk policy. I no longer hold to that position for several reasons:

1.We live in a representative democracy in which we place our trust in leaders who will make decisions on policies and events for the next four to five years. We have no way of knowing what events will occur. We do know that leaders decisions will be influenced by their ideological beliefs, temperment, background etc. Sometimes character is destiny.

2. The Canadian PM is extremely powerful in our system and his leadership style is an important component of his government's success or failure. I would want a PM who wants competent, strong ministers who he would have the interpersonal skills to deal with.   Sadly, some leaders choose bumbling sycophants because they are unable to deal with strong colleagues. Personnel selection is very much a reflection of character.

3. Trudeau at this point is a special case in point. He has only begun to put policies (at least in regards to marijuana) in the shop window. Yet, the Liberals and their supporters in the media have put him forward as the antidote  to Harper almost soley on his character. If his charcter virtues are a selling point, then any of his perceived flaws must be considered fair game for criticism.

So while I think we should be very careful in looking at the character of our leaders to decide if they warrant our support, I don't believe we should criticize the many Canadians who do consider this as A factor when casting their vote.

 


JKR
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Joined: Jan 15 2005

NorthReport wrote:

With all due respect, if we don't agree with other politicians, let's stop attacking their personalities, and focus our disagreements on their respective political party's policies. 

Great idea. Polices that help create well paying jobs and reduce the preponderence of low paying jobs will do a lot more for people than most anything else. If the NDP can convince Canadians that they are the party that can best help produce a future of well paying jobs, the future will bode well for the NDP. And better yet, if the NDP ends up producing an economy of well paying jobs, the future will bode well for Canadians.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Stockholm wrote:

The Ipsos poll is very consistent with other polls lately. I'm actually cheered that the new "floor" for the NDP is second place at 30% even after weeks of non-stop 24 hour a day seven days a week hagiographical, fawning coverage of Justin Trudeau.

The headline really ought to be "Libs still 3rd despite weeks of media hype over Justin Trudeau"!

In an unbiased world, that's what the headline should be, Stockholm.

But since we live in a world where bias sells more newspapers, what can we do?

I still like the suggestion someone had here for a T-Shirt...

A Vote For Trudeau Is A Vote For Harper!

 


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Seats

Date / Poll / NDP / Cons / Libs / BQ / Ind / Grn / Vacant / Total

Nov 25 /12 / BE /

Sep '12 / -- / 100 / 163 / 35 / 4 / 2 / 1 / 3 / 308

May '11 / GE / 103 / 166 / 34 / 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 / 308

Nov '08 / GE / 37 / 143 / 77 / 49 / 2 / 0 / 0 / 308

 

Popular Vote

Date /Pollster /NDP /N-Change /Cons /C-Change /Libs /L-Change / BQ / B-Change 

May '11 / GE / 31% / +13% / 40% / + 2% / 19% / -7% 

Nov 22 '11 / Nanos / 27% / -- / 34% / -- / 29% /--

Nov 15 / Ipsos Reid / 30% / -- / 34% / -- / 26% / -- 

Nov '12 / Abacus / 29% /  -6% / 36% / +1%  / 22%/ +5%

Oct 29 / Forum / 32% / +2% / 31% / -1% / 27% / +2% / 6% /

Oct 15 / Nanos / 28% / -2% / 33% / +1% / 30% / +5% / 5% /

Sep / Environics / 35% / Flatlined/ 31% / -2% / 20% / Flatlined / 9% / +2%

Sep / Forum / 30% / -4% / 35% / +1% / 25% / +3%

Sep 24 / Abacus / 35% / +3% / 35% / -2% /  17% / -3%

Sep 10 /  Harris Decima / 27% / -5% / 34% / +3% / 24% / +1%

Sep 9 / Nanos / 30.4% / +0.1% / 32.4% / -1.2% / 24.6%/ -1.9%

Aug 22 / Forum / 34% / -1% / 34% / +3% / 22% / Flatlined

Aug 12 / Abacus / 32% / -3% / 37% / +2% / 20% / Flatlined

Jul 26 / Forum / 35% / Flatlined / 31% / -4% / 22% / +3%

Jul 12 / Nanos / 30.3% / -3.3% / 33.6% / +0.1% / 26.5% / +1.6%

Jul 5 / EKOS / 32.3% / -0.1% / 30.2% / +0.9% / 19.5% / +0.3%

Jun 27 / Forum / 35% /--- / 35% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 26 / EKOS / 32.4% / --- / 29.3% / --- / 19.2% / ---

Jun 23 / Abacus / 35% / --- / 35% / --- / 20% / ---

Jun 23 / Environics / 35% / --- / 33% / --- / 19% / ---

Jun 21 / Ipsos-Reid / 38% / --- / 35% / --- / 18% / ---

Jun 18 / Harris Decima / 32% / --- / 31% / --- / 23% / ---

Jun 16 / Angus Reid / 35% / --- / 34% / --- / 19% / --- 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

 

 

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

What do people think will be diffent this time if the vote LPC again? I simply don't get it!


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

You know I would really wait this one out and not buy into the corporate media games of ensuring just two corporate parties for electors to choose from.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Jan, your comments remind me of when I was a young Subbie on board ship, and worrying about things, the old Chief would say "Steady Sir"!

Thanks.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Kiss


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

--


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

forum on nov 19

rae vs trudeau
CON 33% (+2) vs 30% (+1)
NDP 28% (-4) vs 23% (-1)
LIB 28% (+1) vs 39% (no change)
BQ 6% (=) vs 6% (+1)
GRN 4% (=) vs 2% (=)

youth still going NDP 35% and only 16% Liberal vs if trudeau leader there is 27% Liberal (with Conservative vote splitting)
and 33% NDP-leaning! it is proof they no desire Trudeau that what over 40 yrs old attract him. =S

And i saw west would back to return Conservative if Trudeau leader on forum table.

 

https://forumresearch.ca/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/33520_Can...


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

Just updating the comment I made below.  If what I said below about Ontario also happens in Quebec (Liberals taking votes from NDP), then that could be a problem.

 

mark_alfred wrote:

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.


socialdemocrati...
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Joined: Jan 10 2012

mark_alfred wrote:

Just updating the comment I made below.  If what I said below about Ontario also happens in Quebec (Liberals taking votes from NDP), then that could be a problem.

 

mark_alfred wrote:

Even though recent polls have Liberals taking some votes from the NDP, this is primarily in Ontario, where the NDP didn't really do that well anyway.  The Liberals becoming more competitive in Ontario allows them to take seats from the Conservatives (even if they're not taking votes from them), whereas the NDP would still retain Quebec and BC seats, leading to a minority with the NDP second after the Conservatives and the Liberals in a strengthened third.  Granted, I'd prefer an NDP majority, but a minority with the NDP still as official opposition (and possibly as gov't if a coalition can be arranged) is an improvement over a Conservative majority.

Excellent point that's often missed in the raw numbers.

Even in the worst polls, the NDP are basically holding onto Quebec. That's 59 seats: more than half the NDP caucus.

The NDP seats in the rest of Canada, around 3/4 are holdovers from 2008. 2/3 are holdovers from 2006. These are safe seats.

As long as we hold onto most of Quebec, we're basically safe. There's enough safe seats outside Quebec that it would be a stretch to lose more than 10 or 20 total.

Short version:

If the Liberals gain in Ontario, the Conservatives lose. Not the NDP.

But if the Liberals gain in Quebec, the country back to a two party neoliberal consensus, and we're in big trouble.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Liberals gain is always in every autumn and winter like last year 2011, NDP always loss in every winter but NDP most gain in every spring-summer.

 

http://www.harrisdecima.ca/news/releases/201211/1642-trudeau-continues-d...


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

You know, I am starting to feel better about the Libs picking Trudeau. The lights are on but no one is home. If you look at the link Lou Ahab provided in another thread where Trudeau was speaking outside the House, it is clear how stupid sounding he is. We have Tom Mulcair. It isn't even close.


Aristotleded24
Online
Joined: May 24 2005

Ippurigakko wrote:
Liberals gain is always in every autumn and winter like last year 2011, NDP always loss in every winter but NDP most gain in every spring-summer.

Perhaps it's because the NDP is trying to fight global warming and the Liberals allowed it to continue!Wink


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