Latest Polling Thread - February 11, 2012

That is a very interesting. I think that what happened in Qubec was not a fluke. I am sure we'll regain once the leaders debate is behind us and we have a new leader. I truly believe there has been an important shift in Quebec. Any thoughts folks?

Anybody know if any more polls are due out prior to the NDP convention?

Here are the full results from that Forum poll from last week. As I suspected, while the NDP has lost ground in Quebec, support is stable at 24% in Ontario and we are doing gang-busters in BC, Prairies and Atlantic Canada!

I tell you Turmel-mania is sweeping English Canada!!!

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2012/02/ndp-up-in-bc-down-in-quebe...

Your, er, sexual politics are JUST what the Liberals need.  Sheesh!

Really, let's put this in perspective.  The NDP has been accused of diving in the polls in Quebec.  Even a term like bottoming out suggests this. But the NDP is at EFFIN 31% in Quebec and in first place.  Say that a year ago and all of us would have been laughing at the absurdity.  

We would lose about twenty seats in Quebec if this poll is correct, maybe more. Our vote is relatively evenly spread and quite inefficient if we drop much below the 42% we got in May.

Each of the other parties, in contrast, have geographical concentrations and are each ahead of where they were in May. The Bloq wd be our main opponent in French speking Quebec, particularly outside Montreal. The Conservatives stand to wrest a number of seats back from us in the Quebec City region and the Liberals in the West Island. The NDP will have to fight a three-front war in Quebec and the results may not be pretty.

Although the CROP poll is somewhat better than some recent polls it is certainly no ground either for complacency nor for the misguided notion that we will carry Quebec regardless of what leader we elect.

No one is suggesting that...for all we know a lot of people in Quebec have started to tune in (a bit) to the leadership contest and they may have read that Mulcair is the frontrunner and so they may be already assuming that the NDP will be led by him.

I've just looked at the numbers. Applying the CROP results on a straight swing, The NDP wd lose 24 seats , the Cons gain 8, the Bloq 10 and the liberals 6.

The overall Quebec result wd be: NDP 35, Bloq 14, Cons 13 and Liberals 13.

So instead of having to make up about 60 seats in the ROC to overtake the Cons the NDP wd have to make up about 100. And that is on the present redistribution which is much less favourable to the Cons than the future one will be..

Well Nicky, we might lose seats but we'd still be OO. But, we haven't picked a leader yet. The fact that we are where we are in Qubec is encouraging. Overall, I am feeling better.

Bloc Quebecois back in first place in Quebec, followed by Liberals. NDP 3rd

Quebec Forum poll:

Bloc (29%)

Liberals (26%)

NDP (22%)

Conservative (17%)

Green party (4%)

https://twitter.com/#!/Alex_Panetta/status/174189405995667456

I don't think Forum has ever polled in Quebec before...and the same poll on provincial politics gives the PQ a mamoth lead - which totally flies in the face of every other survey in Quebec recently. Also, the poll asked a bunch of questions about sovereignty and Quebec's place in canada etc... I think its fair to say that when you ask about federal politics right after a bunch of questions about sovereignty vs. the status quo etc... you tend to bring people back to the old sovereignist vs. federalist polarizations.

Oh, and one other thing Debater, the NDP is going to form the next government, and you guys will still be the third party in the House. So, get used to the idea now. It'll make the outcome later easier for you to take.

For once, I agree with Debater on this. It's waaaaay too soon to try to predict what's going to happen in the next election, and pretending we can do so with any success (in any direction) just makes the predicter look foolish (or arrogant).

Of course, that goes for people trying to assign meaning to polls taken this far out, too....

Arthur I think we established long ago that Debater isn't really a practicing lawyer. He may be something like a paralegal. His misdescription of his occupation may reflect his propensity to be disingenuous on other toics.

BUT, Forum Research, although relatively new to polling was pretty accurate in both the federal and Ontario elections. It may have detected a Quebec trend shown to a lesser extent in other recent polls.

The bottom line is that our support in Quebec is soft and may erode disasterously is we choose our leader unwisely. Those people who complacntly assert that Quebec will be there for us whoever we pick are not living in the real world.

Debater, I m referring to something you posted about a year ago admitting that you do not practice law. 

Many honourable peole do not, so what are you upset about?

Nicky, I hear what you are saying, but I simply have a hard time dealing with Debater.

Debater, most of the time when you come on here, if not all the time, you do do so to rub our faces in the latest poll, or when you want us to commiserate with you over the latest injustice suffered by a Liberal or the Lib party. As to being told that I shouldn't be arrogant, that is really rich. This is coming from the same guy, you, who posted in a thread that you were the only being objecticve. Then you have the audacitiy to compound it by telling me that the NDP is being arrogant. This is coming from the same guy, you again, whose party self adopted the title "Canada's Natural Governning Party". There are plenty of other examples that I could provide regarding Lib arrogance, but I think you get the drift.

But the thing that really got me was your audacity calling me a "Frat Boy". I am never going to get over that insult. And, you have never have apologized for making such a completely, "over-the-top comment" like that. And I have news for you Mister, I never met a "frat boy" type in my 25 years in the Navy. Simply, those guys are takers, and you'll never see them rise to any call  to national service.

So don't lecture me on what I am or I am not. I am completely sick of it. And as to the NDP being arrogant, I say it again Debater, "people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones". You want to dish it out, fine, but don't complain when you get it back.

Agreed. Isn't it the same poll that,said 58 percent of Quebecers would support Mulcair as NDP leader? From around 20 to nearly 60 is a massive jump and would put us right back into the game from day one after the leadership.

Well that is a reasonable thing to ask Charles, but very hard to do. I don't like having sand kicked in my face, but I think you really make a sound case. It is a touch thing that you are asking. As I said above, I don't like being pushed around or having my faced rubbed in it, and I didn't like being insulted in such a demeaning, and contemptuous way. But, I'll give it a try and I really appreciate your reminding at least me that we need to try always act like adults first.

Cheers!

How "fresh" is the poll, anyway?  I seem to have heard about a NDP-in-third poll maybe a couple of weeks ago if not more...

A trend to watch may be the popularity of federalism in Quebec. If federalism starts losing popularity in Quebec, both the PQ and BQ could gain popularity at the expense of their political adversaries.

Great numbers! Thanks for sharing this Stock.

Though what should we make of the drastic differences in Quebec polling numbers? EKOS still has the NDP with a comfortable lead...

There's a part of me that would rather hear that the NDP and the Tories were in a near-statistical tie because support for the NDP had just gone up that much, but to be honest, at this point what we really need is for the support for the Tories to go down. So yeah, this is a very good thing. And apparently it isn't even showing any "Robocon" effects yet...

Yeah, some of the other numbers in the poll are admittedly more impressive, but the NDP at 20% in Alberta makes my heart race! If that number is actually correct and we're at 20% province-wide, I can only imagine what the numbers must look like in Edmonton.

I have a question for the Globe and Mail and CTV - why is your pollster Nik Nanos hiding under a rock while his beloved Cons are crumbling and tanking and the hated NDP are rising in public support?

I think the Conservatives are feeling the heat from the Robocall scandal, OAS, and the Child Pornographer's language. If the Robocall scandal has any more legs, the Conservatives probably won't be recovering anytime soon.

First or second in every region. An election on these numbers would give us a plurality of seats I think, as much of the Conservative vote would be wasted in Alberta. The Ontario numbers are good too.

Agreed!!!

Let's tar and feather these criminal creeps with every brush available.

My thoughts exactly!

And these numbers can't be anything but good for the Alberta NDP going into a provincial election campaign in a few weeks.

Debater: the "missing" points can be attributed, in some order, to: the Bloc, the Greens, the Other vote, and rounding error.

Debater, you can rationalize anything. You are truly amazing.

The Cons are down by  8.1
The NDP is down by 1.4

The BQ is even

The Greens are up by 4.4 
The Libs are up by 2.8
"Other" is up by 2.9

Since Ekos's "likely voter" poll was more accurate in the last election than their regular poll, it's probably worthwhile to look at the "likely voter" numbers too.

EKOS - Likely Voters

CON:  32.1 - Down 7.5 from 2011 Election
NDP: 28.9 - Down 1.7
LIB: 22.3 - Up 3,2
GRN: 7.6 - Up 3.7
BQ:  6.1 - Up 0.1
Other: 3.0 - Up 2.6

These EKOS polling numbers would most likely give the NDP a small minority government and end the Conservatives reign but than again, for the last 5 years, between elections, polls have often shown the Conservatives with these kinds of weak numbers, in the low 30's, but the Conservatives have so far always managed to gain the few percentage points they need to hold onto power.

No, the best thing to do is for Libs to start voting NDP and stop fighting the inevitable. The sooner you guys fold, the sooner the Tories will go away.

Thanks for letting the cat out of the bag that in a minority situation, the third place Liberals will happily prop up Harper rather than help the NDP take power. This is important information. It tells us loud and clear if you want to get rid of Harper - DO NOT VOTE LIBERAL.

If Broadbent spoke French like Chretien spoke English he would have been much more than a bystander in the French debates. Mulroney won the '88 election by dividing the opposition on so-called "free trade". Quebecois parked their votes with the NDP, but then went back to the Conservatives (support for the FTA was relatively high in Quebec). The NDP surged to the top again in early 1990, but that was under a different Leader.

A fear that was stoked by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff. So much for "rise up Canada".

I'm with Stock on this one. The strategic vote for a progressive gov't is NDP - that's it.

Who's calling this the gold standard?

Perhaps EKOS is still over polling the Liberals.

Yes, I think some of what you say is true.

Some people above just assume that all Liberals are going to move over to the NDP, but they won't.  Some of them don't want to ever support the NDP - some of them are Blue Liberals, or Red Tories who don't like the new Conservatives or the NDP etc.  

As Andrew Coyne and others have said, we can't just add the Liberals and NDP together and assume that 1 & 1 is 2.  It will end up being 1.5.  It's similar with the situation on the right.  The right has not completely united.  The new Conservative party STILL hasn't reached the support levels of the old PC party, particularly in Quebec.  It's still a struggle for them just to get to 40% and there are places in the country, most obviously Montreal, where they used to be able to win seats and in which they no longer are.

+1

I am not one to assume that individuals who have voted Liberal will automatically vote NDP. I just believe that individuals should vote for the party they want representing them rather than their 2nd choice. Historically the Liberals have used "strategic voting" as a way to keep the NDP in 3rd place. Interestingly, the NDP is the 2nd choice for Liberals, Greens and Conservatives (cons who despise libs).

In my riding, if there was not an NDP candidate to vote for or work for, I would not vote - period. Just couldn't bring myself to vote for a liberal as I did that years ago, based on the assumption that libs were somewhat progressive - turned out we had a right of centre lib guy who liked to send out Christmas cards with him and his family sporting guns - peace on earth - lol. So never again, I say.

But you're speaking of the Cons as if their numbers were still in the high 30s or low 40s.  Regardless of where that vote is going--a 31% share is pretty ominously low...

If I could give this comment upvotes and likes, you'd have all of them in the universe. This is the one thing an NDP government must do, or may we be banished to wander the political wilderness as the 3rd party forevermore.

This poll showing that the NDP is continuing to move in the direction of forming government
is certainly going to shake up things big time in Ottawa

That's correct for this poll.  But we need to see more polling since Robo-Con to confirm the EKOS numbers and see where the Cons are.  And as someone above said, the Cons have had numbers fall into the low 30's before and always manage to bounce back by the time of an election.  And the challenge the Opposition parties now face is that we can't pull the plug on this government since Harper now has a majority.  So he can wait several years before the next election.  Who knows what the polls will be years from now.

One other challenge the Opposition parties face is having to spend extra resources in the next election on 30 new ridings.  The addition of these new ridings could work to the advantage of the Conservatives since they have the biggest amount of $$ and organization, so we've got a lot of factors to think about.

Anyway, according to Rob Russo, Kady O'Malley & Greg Weston on CBC today, the Cons are looking forward to the 2-week Easter break coming up in a couple of weeks since they think the Robo-Con scandal will die down while Parliament is on vacation.  Hopefully voters won't forget Robo-Con for a while.

I agree that in the large majority of ridings in Western Canada the NDP is the best choice to beat the Conservatives.  I have no problem saying so since I can be objective about that.

What I'd like to know is, does the NDP realize that in most of Ontario, particularly the GTA/905, the Liberals are the best-positioned to beat the Cons?  The Liberals hold most of the GTA seats provincially, and have done so for the last 3 provincial elections.

One day someone may have to sit both parties down as Nathan Cullen is hinting and realize that the parties may have to agree to co-operate in certain parts of the country by not running candidates against one another in the regions whether the other is stronger.

I think you missed the point, David.

I'd suggest listening to some of Nathan Cullen's suggestions for inter-party co-operation.  

It's something both the Liberals and NDP may have to consider after 2015 if the Cons win again.

Endless atavistic hockey sweater political tribalism:

---Wesit Side Story

Canada? I've heard of it

[Edited]

The other issue that hasn't been brought up yet in response to Debater's points is that to some of us, this is simply a matter of principle. I agree with Brian Topp when he says that New Democrats should have the chance to vote for New Democrats, but I also think Liberals should have a chance to vote for Liberals and Greens should have a chance to vote for Greens. When someone stood up at an all-candidates' meeting in the 2008 election and told the Liberal candidate in Edmonton-Strathcona to step down so that Linda Duncan would have a better chance of winning, Linda told them that she wasn't looking for them to make things easy on her. I've never been so proud of her, before or since.

But beyond principle, the so-called easy way is also the loser's way. If we in Edmonton-Strathcona had listened to defeatist ideas about who could and couldn't win there, there would still be a Tory in that seat. As a New Democrat who's active in my community, my job isn't to try to arrange things so that voters have fewer choices and winning is easier. My job is to ensure that we have a better candidate than the Liberals and Greens do, and that we do the absolute best we can to win. And I have to say, in Edmonton-Strathcona we've had a little bit of success with that attitude. Other long-shot places can, too, if they play the long game and really work their asses off.

The way Debater frames it, Ontario's just one big quivering mass of Etobicoke Centre.

@Idealistic Pragmatist:

You point above is bang on and is exactly why I vote NDP only. I am simply not ready to accept the premise that I support a movement whose ideas would never resonate with other Canadians to such a degree that I had to accept an "alternate choice" as Debater advocates. Really, that is why there are New Dems and Libs; we simply have very different visions of what the eventual outcomes of policy positions should be. I don't know why this is so hard to undestand to Libs like Debater. Honestly Debater, I just don't get why you don't get this. If you are a Lib, you are a Lib. But that doesn't mean as a New Dem I have to see you as a fellow traveller. I can't emphasis enough that my life experience tells me I cannot epxect Libs to act in consort with how I see the world. I have seen enough to know that the truth is what it is. I would think it would be more honest of you to at least admit that up front and then try to sell your ideas, rather then tell me that the Libs are somehow the only natural choice, that this how it always has been and must be. I simply won't ever vote Lib. I can't trust them and never will. They have had more then enought chances to prove to me otherwise and inevitably always fall short. You have to at least understand that is how I see it. You don't have to agree with it, but I wish you would pay me the courtesy of acknowledging you actually undestand the point I am making. And frankly, I don't get the feeling you do, or, that you partiuclarly care.

Surely if you and I can agree on anything at all, it would be this.

Nanos is the only pollster showing the NDP in third. I think that is odd. It kind of reminds me of Rasmussen. Sorry Nik, I know you think you are smarter then everyone else, but I don't believe it.

Interestingly the ONLY place where i have seen one peep of criticism about Cullen's plan excluding the BQ - is here on babble. I have been following Quebec media coverage of the NDP leadership campaign very carefully and to the extent that they mention Cullen's plan at all - the Quebec pundits NEVER make any mention of the fact that the BQ would not be included in the deal. They don't care. To people in Quebec it goes without saying. First of all since the BQ is an explicitly sovereignist party - everyone knows that they themselves would not touch an electoral alliance with the federalist NDP and Liberals with a ten foot pole. The whole point of the BQ is to be able to point to BQ votes as being a mandate to push for sovereignty. If a BQ candidate got elected in Beauce as a joint BQ/NDP/Liberal/Green candidate - that person would have a diluted mandate and could not legitimatly use their seat in parliament to fight for Quebec independence. So its a moot point. In the highly hypothetical situation that Cullen becama NDP leader AND that the Liberals also chose a leader who wanted to go along with this plan...its a given that this deal is not about Quebec (where there are already practically no Tory MPs in the first place). Its about Ontario.

So I think this is one of those cases where a lot of guilt-ridden anglos who live outside of Quebec are fantasizing about a reaction in Quebec that does not exist. I'd actually like to see if anyone can find a real, live francophone Quebecer who would actually care if Cullen's plan did not include the BQ. Good luck. I suspect they would all say "of course, why would it? the BQ is only there for sovereignty - not to replace the Harper gov't".

CFL