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Latest Polling Thread - June 2, 2012

Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/05/obama-vs-romney-canadia...

US election 2012, canadian style

Obama 65%
Quebec 76%, BC 69%, Atlantic 68%, Ontario 63%, Prairies 51%, Alberta 46%


Romney 9%
Alberta 19%, Prairies 19%, Ontario 11%, Atlantic 7%, BC 7%, Quebec 1%

Neither 27%

 

All things considered, do you think having Barack Obama as President of the United States has been good or bad for Canada?

Very Good/Good 60% - GRN 77%, NDP 71%, BQ 67%, LIB 59%, CON 51%
Bad/Very Bad 13% - CON 25%, BQ 11%, LIB 8%, NDP 6%, GRN 0%
Not sure 27% - LIB 32%, CON 24%, GRN 23%, NDP 23%, BQ 22%

 

Funny, I read other USA forum, they read 308 blogs about it, they called us "canada is idiculously liberal".


Comments

Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Oops, ridiculously liberal* typos


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Is there one source where anyone can go to see all the latest poll results?

It can be a little confusing to see so many different polling results coming out over long periods of time.

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

I agree - perhaps we should try and compile it here.

--------------------------------------------------------

A bit dated perhaps but not bad source

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/canada-election-polls/


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Apart from the ones listed at Elections Almanac what are the more recent federal Canada-wide polling results?

Popular Support

Date / Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs / Bloc / Grn

May 23/12 / AR / 33% / 37% / 18% / 7% / 4%

May 23/12 / FR / 36% / 32% / 20% / 5% / 6%

May 16/12 / AB / 35% / 37% / 17% / ? / ?

Apr 2/12 / HD / 32% / 34% / 19% / ? / ?

Mar 30/12 / FR / 34% / 36% / 19% / ? / ?

 

Seat Projections

Date / Pollster / NDP / Cons / Libs / Bloc/ Grn / Total / Comments 

May 23/12 / FR / 138 / 123 / 42 / 4  / 1 / 308 /  NDP minority government

 

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011
Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011

David Young wrote:

Is there one source where anyone can go to see all the latest poll results?

It can be a little confusing to see so many different polling results coming out over long periods of time.

 

 

David,

You can see all the polls since the last election on this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

I visit this page regularly to see the trends because one poll isn`t enough to have some assumptions.


David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

Very Far Away wrote:

David Young wrote:

Is there one source where anyone can go to see all the latest poll results?

It can be a little confusing to see so many different polling results coming out over long periods of time.

David,

You can see all the polls since the last election on this page:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_Canadian_federal_election

I visit this page regularly to see the trends because one poll isn`t enough to have some assumptions.

Thanks for the link; it's just what I was looking for!

 


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

Interesting point from 308:

Quote:

The main sticking point for the Mulcair in this equation is the Liberal Party in Ontario. If the Liberals do well enough to keep the Tories down, it helps the New Democrats win a plurality of seats nationwide. But if they falter and a lot of that support goes to the Conservatives, the NDP is unable to breakthrough in the region they dearly need to: suburban Toronto. The Liberals also have the potential to cause problems for the NDP in Atlantic Canada, where their vote is as inefficient as it is in Ontario. Everywhere else, the Liberals are not a factor.

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/06/130-seats-for-ndp.html


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

I think the next election will be polarized and it is the Cons that would need the split rather than the NDP to take the ridings-- or the phenomenon could work both ways. I would not worry about this and the deader the Liberals are the better the chance the NDP can beat the Cons.

I think that there will be fewer vote-split ridings in the next election than there has been in decades with likely the highest number of clear victories we have seen in a long while. The Liberals will hang on to some seats with likely very strong results in those limited places but are less likely to be a factor in many other ridings which may turn in to straight up contests between the Cons and the NDP.

The next election in my view is being fought already and we see how.

The Cons are likely going to hold back until the late stages on direct attacks on the NDP. The reason is they were over used on the Liberals and more of the right wing media can be used to go after the NDP.

The fight is primarily stories from the right wing press -- likely some planted and fed by the Cons -- to smear the NDP as not rational and extremist. This will increase over the next couple years.

the winner of the next election will be decided based on whether the voting public will see through this rain of crap and recognize it for what it is.

If the NDP were smart it would call for the labelling of all political commentators who have party connections (including their own). It could even go so far as to make and promote a list of the names of the Conservative party-connected press and call them out for what they are-- labelling them by putting their names beside their connection to the conservative party. Now by this I do not mean right wing hacks-- I mean the large number of commentators who are actual Conservatives who have been former MPs or employees of the party. There are now a large number in the press and many of the public are not aware of that now that most of the media no longer have the integrity to publish such connections with their opinion pieces. they might want to also publish a list of those with close ties to big business.

The NDP should understand the propaganda war that has already started and address it directly -- to pretend it does not exist will eventually mean to succumb to it.

People have a right to this information.

Otherwise-- perhaps someone here with enough time could start assembling the list and doing the research. An alphabetical list of the main opinion makers who have loyalties to other than the media or public would be incredibly useful to combatt this 'air" war that we are already seeing. Anyone up for that?

In fairness it needs to acknowledge commentators (Capstick, Topp etc. who are associated with us) and those associated with the Liberals. It would be "an armchair guide" to propaganda. Even some journalists might find it useful-- and enlightening. the existence of it would be a news story.

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

I hate Capstick. He is ineffectual, and  mousy when he is on CBC. But I will say this, its lucky I'm not there or I'd reach across the table and punch Tim Powers lights out. That guy is a tool!


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

I would be interested in this and it could be a part time thing but I think it would require some resources and would include some cost so I would need to be funded. Still, we have talked about trying to start up a left of centre media-- a "Citizen's Guide to Propaganda" would be a lot less costly and would encourage people to think twice about who and what they are hearing and seeing.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Arthur Cramer wrote:

I hate Capstick. He is ineffectual, and  mousy when he is on CBC. But I will say this, its lucky I'm not there or I'd reach across the table and punch Tim Powers lights out. That guy is a tool!

I have to say I've seen Capstick be very effective... Maybe we were not watching at the same time ;-)


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Ok, if you say he has been effective, then I am wrong. I still would like to punch out Tim Powers, and I may be in my 50s, all that would do was ensure it was a fairier fight, Wink


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

The NDP should understand the propaganda war that has already started and address it directly -- to pretend it does not exist will eventually mean to succumb to it.

 

Couldn't agree more. There's some evidence that the party gets this, but also some evidence that it is unwilling to confront the breadth and depth of the problem. But there is only so much that can be done to change the institutional hostility. If the NDP is going to win, it is always going to be in spite of the media.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

 

PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS

Wall Best, Dexter Worst as Canadians Rate Their Premiers

Alison Redford increases her standing in Alberta, while a decline is noticeable for Newfoundland and Labrador’s Kathy Dunderdale.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012.06.07_Premiers...


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Wall is the first, Redford is the 2nd, Sellinger is on the 3rd, and Dexter is the last 9th.

but

best oppostion

Lorraine Michael is the first (57%), Andrian Dix is the 2nd (53%) and Andrea Horwath is the 4th (51%)

all of them NDP leader. I can predict that they would get a form govt in next election after 2015.


seeseagee
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Joined: Mar 15 2012

A really very good idea, Sean.

I would suggest, though, that your latest working-title iteration, (perhaps just offhand, albeit), a "Citizen's Guide to Propanganda", is too lefty-sounding. I'm assuming that you'd be intending this to be countering the excesses of the rightish media, but still being fairly objective-as-possible and even-handed, so as to be credible and effective. Your analysis seems to generally roll that way.

So, my two-cents anyway, I liked the 'Armchair' bit you initially had. "An Armchair Guide to ...", to something ... 'Bias'? Not quite ... To 'Who's Talking For Who in the Media'? ... 'Talking Points: An Armchair Guide to Who's Talking For Who(m) in the Canadian Media / Punditscape'?  I don't know.

Anyways, just throwing out some constructive criticism. I think it's a great idea, though.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Yes-- constructive indeed-- I think you are right-- must be neutral for sure if it is to be effective otherwise it would not be read by those we would want to read it.

Thanks

 


Doctor Manderly
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Joined: Mar 28 2012

If the Federal NDP really wants to win power..

 

....they need to a work on  gaining more a sympathetic media outlet(s)....  

 

 OR at least recruit a huge a team of online posters like Conservatives have.. to counter the spin...it could be volunteers

 


knownothing
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Joined: Mar 24 2011
Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
If nanos has the NDP in first, even by .1 percent, that means the NDP is very likely at 36 percent because nanos always inflated the Liberals at the expense of the NDP.

Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Doctor Manderly wrote:

If the Federal NDP really wants to win power..

 

....they need to a find a way to gain a sympathetic media outlet(s)....  

 

  They also need a team of online posters like Conservatives have...

 

sorry but the NDP does want to win power and must do so without any sort of major media outlet.

All the media is big business now that we have had decades of "rationalization" and buyouts.

This ship sailed when Canada let business that were non-media to buy up the media. At present levels of concentration you are effectively saying the NDP needs big business endorsement to win.

I think winning even against the media is a challenge but must it be done. There are some things we can do to help ourselves-- some of that is being as friendly as we can to many potentially friendly media reporters; educating the public about what is out there-- tackling some of this head on. Admitting we have a problem and getting the public to admit that we have structural problems in the media is another thing.

"The armchair guide to public commentators and who they stand for" could be an important element.

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

They aren't happy over at the G&M today; the posters are flipping out.

Another poll out today shows Darrell Dexter as the least most popular Altantic Premier. I can't find it now. It was on the Winnipeg  Freep website. He was at 27%. Tell me again why austerity is a good idea?

ETA: Check the Huff Post


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

Reading Dexter's bio. Sounds a lot like Rae in the 90s

Quote:
After coming to power, Dexter and his NDP government were shaken by multiple scandals involving expense claims and campaign contributions. On November 10, 2009, it was discovered that members of Dexter's new government had rung up excessive meal and drink bills at the taxpayers' expense

 

*facepalm*

 

 


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Nanos - may 31

NDP 33.6% (+1.2)
CON 33.2% (-1.2)
LIB 24.9% (+1.6)
BQ 3.4% (-0.5)
GRN 2.4% (-1.8)

Atlantic
NDP 34.4% (-0.6)
LIB 33.0% (+2.5)
CON 29.1% (-4.4)
GRN 2.7 (+0.5)

Quebec
NDP 41.5% (+4.1)
CON 18.0% (-1.7)
LIB 17.3% (-5.9)
BQ 13.9% (-2.5)
GRN 2.5% (-0.2)

Ontario
CON 35.6% (-1.3)
NDP 31.5% (+2.2)
LIB 30.0% (+2.3)
GRN 1.7% (-3.6)

Prairies
CON 50.2% (+3.5)
NDP 24.7% (-5.7)
LIB 24.1% (+8.5)
GRN 0.7% (-2.3)

BC
NDP 37.0% (+5.1)
CON 34.0% (-5.0)
LIB 23.0% (+3.4)
GRN 6.0% (-1.5)

 

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W12-T541E.pdf


Buddy Kat
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Joined: Sep 21 2006

Perhaps Canadians are starting to get wise regarding the media.....If this is the best the media can do since the last poll, they are losing there grip. They had there panels stacked ..they had every oil sand promotter fron center ..they dismissed the left at nauseum, they pumped up conservative MP's that cheat to win like good year blimps..

No question in my mind they are bought owned , sold, run and serve the Conservatives and are biased to point of obvious..between Rex and Evan on one network....the appointing of a con news propagandist to the senate on another network and then there are the reptillians with lizard eyes on another networkLaughing

There is robo calls then there are Robo-Networks

 

New http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zky2bn0Gtyg New

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QvXax88J8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0eQgUpkJ1Q

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns8LD5Q8ecc

 


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

Ippurigakko wrote:

Wall is the first, Redford is the 2nd, Sellinger is on the 3rd, and Dexter is the last 9th.

but

best oppostion

Lorraine Michael is the first (57%), Andrian Dix is the 2nd (53%) and Andrea Horwath is the 4th (51%)

all of them NDP leader. I can predict that they would get a form govt in next election after 2015.

Funniest thing is Lorraine Michaels isn't the official opposition, the Liberals are. Michaels is leading NFLD's 3rd party!


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

yeah i guess it is Angus` idea, same thing media or ppl says liberal is opposition but not Libs, NDP is! lol

I mean Federal.

 

 


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

It is concerning to see the Liberals polling so high in the Nanos Poll. That definitely needs to be addressed.


bekayne
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Joined: Jan 23 2006

Corporate Research Associates (CRA) has provincial polls today for each of the Atlantic provinces

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/06/08/atlantic-canada-premiers-support-poll-darrell-dexter_n_1579598.html?ref=canada


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