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Latest polling thread - May 10, 2012
May 10, 2012 - 5:10am
Harris-decima again:
NDP 34%, CON 30%, LIB 20%, GRN 8%?, BQ 6%? (Rest of Canada) over 2,000 canadians
before (April 30, 2012)
NDP 33%, CON 30% LIB 20%, GRN 8%, BQ 7% (Ontario and Quebec only) over 1,000
http://www.globaltoronto.com/ndp+widening+support+across+the+country+pol...
just wait to see their PDF thingy in Rest of Canada info.
"With a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, support for the two parties could be equally split."
They still can't bring themselves to admit it.
They hate us. The Libs must be in a panic. I mean after all, it was a fluke, right? After all, Mulcair is a fascist sepratist, who wants to rule us from France, right?
fascist separatist? lol if we NDP fans it mean we are the separatist supporters for Mulcair? is it mean we want separate Harper's Land? lol
I think the MSM's got a preferred inverse spin, i.e. emphasizing the bloom being off Harper's rose, rather than emphasizing the NDP being in the lead...
Adma, you are right. Nothing about this poll in Huff Po, nor either of the last couple of polls either. Go NDP!
Canada
NDP 34% (+2 from April 2)
CON 30% (-4)
LIB 20% (+1)
GRN 8% (same)
BQ 7% (+1)
Atlantic
NDP 44% (+8)
LIB 30% (same)
CON 23% (-7)
GRN 3% (same)
Quebec
NDP 38% (-1)
BQ 27% (+3)
LIB 14% (same)
CON 12% (-2)
GRN 7% (-1)
Ontario
CON 32% (-9)
NDP 31% (+5)
LIB 28% (+4)
GRN 7% (same)
Prairies
CON 43% (-2)
NDP 39% (+5)
LIB 11% (-2)
GRN 6% (-1)
Alberta
CON 55% (+1)
NDP 17% (-2)
LIB 14% (-2)
GRN 12% (+4)
BC
NDP 39% (-5)
CON 32% (+2)
LIB 14% (+1)
GRN 13% (+2)
Men
NDP 34% (+5)
CON 32% (-4)
LIB 20% (same)
GRN 7% (same)
BQ 6% (same)
Women
NDP 33% (-1)
CON 28% (-4)
LIB 20% (+2)
GRN 9% (same)
BQ 8% (+2)
http://www.harrisdecima.ca/sites/default/files/releases/2012/05/10/hd-20...
So the NDP are leading or "statistically tied" (hey, we can do it to) everywhere except Alberta.
Ontario - the Conservatives drop 9 points! - is especially nice to see. One would have thought that deserving of mention in the article.
Love those Prairie numbers. I really hope that holds. I so want to get rid of Kevin Lamoureux!
Alberta, what is wrong with those people?
Ontario numbers are really good for NDP. If NDP reaches 35% in Ontario, this means lots of MP's.
However, I was expecting that the support for NDP in Quebec to be over 40%.
Totally agree. If Cons had 34% and NDP 30%, then they wouldn`t mention the margin of error so boldly.
In a few provinces, the Liberals are staying the same, which means that the NDP is rising as much as the Conservatives are falling.
That makes me wonder two things:
1: Is the NDP now the de facto second party alternative to the Conservatives?
2: Or, is there something missing from the traditional left-right analysis that makes it sensible to switch from Conservative to NDP?
Keep in mind that it's also possible that Conservatives are switching to Liberals, and Liberals are switching to the NDP, so it only *looks* like the Liberals are standing still. But I sincerely doubt that explains it.
Yeah looks like it.
BC and Sask former NDP switch to Conservative
Now they switch to NDP from Conservative in 2015
is it make sense?
It seems to me that when a political party enters the realm of "credible" in the average / casual voter's lexicon, ideology and philosphy don't count for much. Since the NDP ousted the Liberals as the official opposition, I think any notion of "the NDP can never win" was ousted right along with them. It also didn't hurt that the NDP chose Mulcair as leader, as he seems to have some credibility as a leader in the eyes of the electorate. The combination of those things makes the NDP a viable option for anyone not pleased with the day to day activities of the government. In the past, voters would have said "I don't like where the Tories are taking us, and the NDP could never win anyway, so I'll just vote Liberal". Now NDP and Liberal seems to have switched places in that sentence.
There is a segment of the Conservative base, inherited from Reform, that is more populist (and, I expect, more rural) than rigidly ideological and urban. It shouldn't surprise to see Conservative-NDP vote switching. IIRC there was a great deal of NDP-Reform crossovers in BC in '93. These are voters who are never going to vote Liberal, but who can make the jump from NDP to Conservative and back again.
One thing that is very notable about the latest polling numbers is how well the NDP seems to be doing among men. For the last 20 years or so, NDP support has tended to be way higher among woman than among men. A lot of the recent NDP increase seems to be from support levels among men catching up to the already high support levels among women. I wonder whether Mulcair may actually be a bit more appealing to men than Jack was - what with his gruff "Lou Grant-like" image...
I agree with Jeff - this goes for Sask. voters too - switchers between Reform and NDP. They don't like Liberals.
no wonder Harpo wants NDP more gains than Liberals just because he hate Libs much?
Jeff that is good analysis, but how wierd is that?
There were a lot of PC-NDP switchers in the recent Ontario election too - people who hated McGuinty and had to decide which kind of change they wanted.
There's a comment to the Post's story of the poll that I think represents the populist rage of the Con-NDP switch voter:
http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/05/10/tory-support-stays-stagnant-as-ndp-surges-in-conservative-strongholds-poll/
Something worth remembering. To these voters, it's not the ideology (certainly not explicitly), or the big items that may loom large to insiders that wins them over. The idealistic Reformer can look at Oda's excess and say It's not Preston Manning's party any more. IMO that's who we're winning over. Or rather, winning back.
On another polling note - FWIW CARP (Canadian Association of Retired People) has some interesting polling data. They surveyed their own members in January and 52% said they would vote Tory and only 12% said they would vote NDP. Now the NDP leads 29% to 25% among CARP members!!
That's really interesting. It's always been my read on the electorate having grown up in the 90s. I always got the impression that there's a huge part of the population who doesn't like the Liberals, and see them as an elitist party. Just that they dominated politics for so long due to vote splitting, with no accountability. The sudden collapse in NDP support after the birth of the Reform and the Bloc suggest that there are more "populist" voters in Canada than there are "progressive" voters.
It's always been bullshit that Conservatives claim to represent "average Canadians", because I think they've pulled the wool over a lot of peoples' eyes. But in a way, I've always respected them more than the Liberals as opponents. Conservatives make no qualms about what it is that they believe, and what it is that they're against. They have strong principles, even if they're the wrong ones. To some extent, I think there's a "principled" voter who admires anyone with the guts to speak up for what they think is right. And for that reason, they're more likely to vote Conservative or NDP than Liberal.
that's a crushing number in altantic canada, basically approaching sweep-level support. wow. also, the quebec number is likely higher than the poll is finding, meaning we could add a couple more percent to that, bringing in at least another 10 quebec seats and getting us to the point where we could reasonably start talking about minority government in partnership with the liberals.
When I look at polling in Quebec federally right now - i just disregard the BQ % and only look at where the NDP, Liberals and CPC are at. The BQ is just running on fumes and is close to having to declare bankruptcy. By 2015 they may not even bother competing and even if they do - I think that of the 23% who voted BQ last year, a chunk will vote NDP just to get rid of Harper, another chunk of real "pur et dur' sovereignists will decide that federal politics are a waste of time and stay home and some small vestigial remnant will get swept up in "Paille-mania" and vote BQ...2015 will be to the BQ like what 1980 was to Social Credit under Fabien Roy.
Yeah, I always thought Altantic is Nova Scotia than another Eastern and even Prairies always make me think of Saskatchewan than Manitoba.
Also, according to these results the Ontario support is reaching a tipping point. Just a little bit more, and a little bit less for the Conservatives, could mean the difference in dozens of ridings.
FWIW, Eric Grenier projects an NDP minority from this poll: 128 NDP, 112 Con, 58 Lib, BQ 9, Grn 1.
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/05/ndp-leads-could-win-plurali...
Stockholm, thanks for the heads up about the CARP poll. I think for me this is the most shocking result since I learned the NDP were leading in Quebec!
http://www.carp.ca/2012/05/10/42223/
If they lose the seniors, they lose.
There is a large right wing constituency in Canada.
It will go somewhere. If Stephen Harper's Cons are no longer viable you can expect a another party to replace them.
I think Harper's Cons may be tanking too fast.
They could drop below viability well enough before the next election for either the Liberals to swing right or a brand new right of centre party to materialize or perhaps even the Cons to make a comeback under a new leader. There is no way that the right wing powers in this country will allow a polarized fight between the NDP and a discredited right-wing representative that has a low chance of winning. The next right wing party is likely to make centre-like noises but still govern from the right rather than the centre.
I am not even certain Harper is intending to stay. He may like the idea of having the freedom of knowing he will never have to be accountable at the ballot box again. If he has not decided this yet-- he could be an even scarier PM when he does make that call.
At this point the Cons may feel they can steal the next election through manipulation of riding boundaries, changed election laws favouring big money and a corporate backed media. But things can change. It is possible the media may be less supportive- Harper has taken the media for granted and many journos are frustrated by his secretive approaches and tactics. Don't think the right wing power in this country does not have a plan B.
Nobody should be counting any chickens or presuming anything. That said there are huge opportunities to open people's minds and move the culture exactly as Mulcair said-- move the centre to us. Being credible, consistent is important.
Sean, again fine commentary. I say it again, when are you writing that book! I want the first copy, autographed by the way
This is sound logic, but I can't see all of this unfolding prior to the next election. The Conservative machine isn't going to be too panic-stricken for at least a year or two. Doubtless they'll still be attributing at least a good portion of the NDP numbers to the post-convention / new leader bump. They'll be wanting to see what the Liberals do at their leadership level, and even if the NDP numbers hold, there is still no guarantee the Conservative numbers fall low enough to lose the election in 2015. If the election were held today, you would think the Conservatives would be giving themselves a better than 50/50 chance of winning again, so I doubt a guy like Harper would willingly fall on his sword when his chances of remaining PM are still better than a coin flip.