babble-intro-img
babble is rabble.ca's discussion board but it's much more than that: it's an online community for folks who just won't shut up. It's a place to tell each other — and the world — what's up with our work and campaigns.

Latest polling thread - started April 10, 2012

Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011
Canadians OK with higher taxes to fight inequality

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/10/pol-broadbent-poll.html

 

 


Comments

Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011
Boom Boom
Offline
Joined: Dec 29 2004

Excellent - that's the poll that was discussed tonight on P&P.


socialdemocrati...
Offline
Joined: Jan 10 2012

I saw some people commenting about the 308, and their polling average from March. I also thought it was a pretty stupid framework, and seemed a little fishy.

But in Eric Grenier's defense, he's been doing monthly averages for a long time.

So I don't think he was cherrypicking a timeframe to mute the NDP's gains on purpose. It just so happens that the beginning of March is very different from the end of March.

The interesting thing, looking at all the monthly averages, is that there is an "chasm" effect for the New Democrats where some gains are actually *bad* for defeating the Harper government. If we make enough gains, we can combine with the Liberals for a majority. That's also true to some extent if we lose. But there's this perfect gap where we make enough gains to screw up the Liberals, but not enough to take the seats from the Conservatives.

Funny enough, the election seems like it happened at the perfect time. A few days earlier, and the Liberals wouldn't have tanked in Ontario. A few days later, and we might have gotten enough seats to stop the Conservatives from sneaking up the rightward flank.


babbler 8
Offline
Joined: Apr 16 2001

I'd take every conclusion 308 comes to with a huge grain of salt, particularly at the seat level. Their record in predicting the last federal election speaks for itself. Much like the pro-strategic voting sites, 308 tries to make numbers say more than they really say. Also, I contend that the last Liberal votes that the NDP will shake loose from the Liberals are in Liberal held seats, so I wouldn't lose too much sleep over NDP gains. The main issue I have about 308 is their slavish adherance to a flawed model over common sense.

The monthly averages I do like though, and as the last sentence says: "A last snapshot, then, of the political landscape in Canada before the arrival of Thomas Mulcair." All polls since Mulcair took the leadership show the NDP and Cons statistically even, so there would have to be some pretty wild vote distributions for this to result in anything other than a minority parliament.

Another pet peeve I have with 308 is that they completely don't look at momentum, in fact they provide so much "hysteresis" that they are actually doing the opposite of considering momentum. This does avoid showing false change, but like in the case of the last election it also made it look like the shift to the NDP wasn't really happening until much after it started. Astute political observers understood that when the NDP passed the Liberals they would most likely keep going up by peeling off strategic voters. (regardless of how strategic their vote really was), whereas 308's models were still looking at what happened 2-3 weeks earlier.

So that said, I predict that most of the new polls will show the NDP leading in the near future, and I think we've only seen the beginning of the Mulcair bounce. If I was a Liberal I would be desperately trying to figure out a way of reversing this trend.


Stockholm
Offline
Joined: Sep 29 2002

When the April polling averages come out in a few weeks we may see the NDP in first place in both vote share and seat count for the first time!!


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

Yeah,

 

here I made line graph on MS excel

May 2, 2011 to April 4, 2012

 

Better than Wikipedia fed poll firm graph?

Cons going to dive, NDP going to tsunami wave, Libs going to die like flat, and finally Green/BQ are usually neck and neck but Green beats BQ


mtm
Offline
Joined: Oct 16 2008

why do the ndp dots turn red.  Confusing...


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

Lol, its Dark Orange looks like Red colour.

That what i use MS excel "Gradient line colour" not Solid line.


Doctor Manderly
Offline
Joined: Mar 29 2012

For polling data usually the data favours the folks who pay for it...follow the money...

 

So, if the Polling firm gets their $$$ from the Liberals... the report will favour them, 


babbler 8
Offline
Joined: Apr 16 2001

Thanks for the graph, Ippurigakko, love it!


Very Far Away
Offline
Joined: Sep 20 2011

Doctor Manderly wrote:

For polling data usually the data favours the folks who pay for it...follow the money...

 

So, if the Polling firm gets their $$$ from the Liberals... the report will favour them, 

 

This is not always the case. Especially for reputable market research companies.

 


Doctor Manderly
Offline
Joined: Mar 29 2012

Not always  but especially during elections they are worth taking with a grain of salt

 

It is very easy to frame the questions to get the answer you want

 

 


NorthReport
Offline
Joined: Jul 6 2008

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 


Doctor Manderly
Offline
Joined: Mar 29 2012

NorthReport wrote:

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 

Oh for sure, I just mean there is more on the line near elections....

Many foks like to vote for winners for some reason...so if they see poll projecting certain party to win it influences their vote...

 


Arthur Cramer
Offline
Joined: Nov 30 2010

What CTV poll are you guys referencing regarding Rae? And does the CTV poll show the Libs ahead of the NDP? I looked on their website and I can't see anything. I don't know to which polls you guys are referring.


Very Far Away
Offline
Joined: Sep 20 2011

NorthReport wrote:

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 

 

Sorry, I don`t agree with you, NorthReport.

If you really think a reputable market research company changes the real numbers, then you must never believe the results of any polling. If this is the case, this polling thread is meaningless, isn`t it?

Of course, different market research companies may show different results for the same kind of polling and this is normal. There is no 100% correct polling. 

 

 

 


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

Arthur, here website:

http://social.ctvnews.ca/topic.php?topicid=19024&featurePollId=19471

down scrolls

 

whos should lead Canada: 1,500 votes (from recent 1,400)

Rae 50% from 51%
Mulcair 29% from 30%
Harper 21% from 19%

who would you vote for?

Rae 41% from 42%
Mulcair 36% from 37%
Harper 19% from 16%
Paille or May 4% from 5%

 

and another more CTV polls here:
http://social.ctvnews.ca/topic.php?topicid=20745&featurePollId=20746

 

Can Thomas Mulcair carry on the Layton Legacy?
No 63%
Yes 37%

Can Mulcair beat Harper?
No 54%
Yes 46%

Can the NDP win the next election?

No, not ready 54%
Yes, an NDP PM 46%

What would Jack say about the new NDP?
Proud to be an NDPER 50%
Going the wrong way 37%
Not sure 7%
True to our roots 5%


 


Northern-54
Offline
Joined: Feb 1 2010

As I read NorthReport's comments, he spoke of believing polls more when close to elections.  I find polls during elections, when the election date is more than 10 days away, to be suspect.  Polling firms that do a lot of government business have too much vested interest for me to trust them. Having analyzed night by night results of NANOS during the last election, for example, shows that the results of some of the nights were so improbable as to be statistically impossible, not once but several times.  It is telling that similar analysis close to election night shows no "beyond the realm" of possibility evenings.  NorthReport is correct when he says that there is no way of "proving" that the polls are manipulated unless it is very close to an election date.

In between elections, I am more likely to trust those firms without strong connections to one political party or another.  There have been too many cases of "push polls" undertaken by "reputable" firms for me to trust results all the time.  Since the Liberal Party has fallen to third place, I tend to trust EKOS more now as there is no obvious connection between company government business and the polling results.  I trust the Conservative pollsters less now as there is such an obvioius connection.  I distrust NANOS polls the most.  I tend to like Harris Decima in spite of the company's Conservative connections.

On the other hand, if an election is due within a few days, I trust that all reputable pollsters are trying to get their polling result to reflect what the actual outcome will be.  Therefore, there is a time when I have a lot of trust in pollsters.


Doctor Manderly
Offline
Joined: Mar 29 2012

Very Far Away wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 

 

Sorry, I don`t agree with you, NorthReport.

If you really think a reputable market research company changes the real numbers, then you must never believe the results of any polling. If this is the case, this polling thread is meaningless, isn`t it?

Of course, different market research companies may show different results for the same kind of polling and this is normal. There is no 100% correct polling. 

 

 

 

Do you not agree that is is very possible to skew your poll results based on how you pose the questions?


Very Far Away
Offline
Joined: Sep 20 2011

"Do you not agree that is is very possible to skew your poll results based on how you pose the questions?"

Of course, it's very possible to skew poll results. That`s why I said "reputable" market research companies.


Very Far Away
Offline
Joined: Sep 20 2011

Northern-54 wrote:

As I read NorthReport's comments, he spoke of believing polls more when close to elections.  I find polls during elections, when the election date is more than 10 days away, to be suspect.  Polling firms that do a lot of government business have too much vested interest for me to trust them. Having analyzed night by night results of NANOS during the last election, for example, shows that the results of some of the nights were so improbable as to be statistically impossible, not once but several times.  It is telling that similar analysis close to election night shows no "beyond the realm" of possibility evenings.  NorthReport is correct when he says that there is no way of "proving" that the polls are manipulated unless it is very close to an election date.

In between elections, I am more likely to trust those firms without strong connections to one political party or another.  There have been too many cases of "push polls" undertaken by "reputable" firms for me to trust results all the time.  Since the Liberal Party has fallen to third place, I tend to trust EKOS more now as there is no obvious connection between company government business and the polling results.  I trust the Conservative pollsters less now as there is such an obvioius connection.  I distrust NANOS polls the most.  I tend to like Harris Decima in spite of the company's Conservative connections.

On the other hand, if an election is due within a few days, I trust that all reputable pollsters are trying to get their polling result to reflect what the actual outcome will be.  Therefore, there is a time when I have a lot of trust in pollsters.

 

Here are the polls before the last election (campaign and pre-campaign):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

Some figures are kind of weird, but in general they all show the "trends" and that`s the most important thing.

 

 


NorthReport
Offline
Joined: Jul 6 2008

Polling can be skewed in many different ways. 

A simple example is for a pollster who wants to show a particualr political party looking good. All the pollster has to do is overpoll in a geographical area that is favourable to that political party. Or if they want to show a political party looking bad, all they have to do is do the opposite, and underpoll in areas that are favourable to therm.

But regardless of whether or not we can believe polling results, they can have a huge impact on the voting public, and that is why there are so many of them released, particularily around election time.


CanadaApple
Offline
Joined: Dec 1 2011

Ippurigakko wrote:

here I made line graph on MS excel

That's a great graph! good job!


bekayne
Offline
Joined: Jan 23 2006

Stockholm wrote:

When the April polling averages come out in a few weeks we may see the NDP in first place in both vote share and seat count for the first time!!

There has to be a bit of a spread in the % before the NDP pulls ahead in the seat count.


Arthur Cramer
Offline
Joined: Nov 30 2010

So basically, these are polls that reflect the fact no one really knows Mulcair, the fact that the NDP in Opposition has been seem as leaderless, and the MSM have been treating the Libs as though they were the government in waiting. Basically, people are being asked for opinons based on deception and falsehoods.

Nope, these dont worry me in the least. Just like all the polls that said the NDP was done in Quebec. I didn't either believe them or worry them, and I'm not going to worry about these either.

CTV can poll all they want. And it was Nanos, all I can say is, what do you expect?

Big deal!

ETA: Ippurigakko, thanks very much my friend. Cheers!


Arthur Cramer
Offline
Joined: Nov 30 2010

Headline on www.cbc.ca/politics webpage, Liberal MPs say F-35 buy bungled. No wonder Rae is rated highly. I am sorry, but I really hate the CBC, and the rest of g-d MSM. When are they going to figure out the Libs are the OO and Rae isn't leader of the OO? I mean, really!


Ippurigakko
Offline
Joined: May 30 2011

Yeah.

 

Where the hell is Nanos?? What so long he wait for? Is he fear better than hope? lol
it was last update in Feb 28!

 

Edit: Arthur, CBC readers are more NDP supporters than CTV, Last month they polls says:

Is Thomas Mulcair the right choice to lead the NDP? Why or why not? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Yes -  59.44%  (2,855 votes) <--- 2,855 NDP supporters
No -  23.53%  (1,130 votes) <--- 1,130 non-NDP supporters must be Libs or Cons

but yeah CBC is Liberal media.


Sean in Ottawa
Offline
Joined: Jun 3 2003

Seat counts over-represent parties going down and under-represent parties going up as a general rule. And I mean this in terms of long-term trends.

I think it is partly because the over-value incumbency but there is another reason. When a party is very low their support is more evenly spread but as it increases peaks and valleys appear. A party that is low in an area and moving up will according to the model keep the same flat appearance and not have that gain reflected in seats but when a party in reality comes up and the peaks appear those will become gains in seats the model did not see. Problem is you cannot predict where they will be-- there is no possible model for that as the historical baseline is flat.

By the same token parties going down are expected to keep the same peaks and valleys when in reality they tend to flatten out. There are exceptions of course with candidates who are elected not because of the party but because of their personal popularity.


socialdemocrati...
Offline
Joined: Jan 10 2012

Keep in mind the news media is still just a social club. If you have a relationship with journalists where you can call them up and say "here's my comment on this story, please post it", that relationship might persist regardless of your electoral fortunes.

The media has always hated the NDP. Because they're a business, and we're "anti-business", whatever that means.


knownothing
Offline
Joined: Mar 24 2011
Ippurigakko wrote:

Yeah.

 

Where the hell is Nanos?? What so long he wait for? Is he fear better than hope? lol
it was last update in Feb 28!

 

Edit: Arthur, CBC readers are more NDP supporters than CTV, Last month they polls says:

Is Thomas Mulcair the right choice to lead the NDP? Why or why not? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Yes -  59.44%  (2,855 votes) <--- 2,855 NDP supporters
No -  23.53%  (1,130 votes) <--- 1,130 non-NDP supporters must be Libs or Cons

but yeah CBC is Liberal media.

Nanos did the same thing in the federal election. He didn't poll after the NDP surged and blamed it on the Easter weekend. All the other companies had registered the surge before Nanos. He is a slave.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or register to post comments