Latest polling thread - started April 10, 2012

118 posts / 0 new
Last post
Ippurigakko
Latest polling thread - started April 10, 2012

Canadians OK with higher taxes to fight inequality

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/04/10/pol-broadbent-poll.html

 

 

Issues Pages: 
Regions: 
Ippurigakko
Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Excellent - that's the poll that was discussed tonight on P&P.

socialdemocrati...

I saw some people commenting about the 308, and their polling average from March. I also thought it was a pretty stupid framework, and seemed a little fishy.

But in Eric Grenier's defense, he's been doing monthly averages for a long time.

So I don't think he was cherrypicking a timeframe to mute the NDP's gains on purpose. It just so happens that the beginning of March is very different from the end of March.

The interesting thing, looking at all the monthly averages, is that there is an "chasm" effect for the New Democrats where some gains are actually *bad* for defeating the Harper government. If we make enough gains, we can combine with the Liberals for a majority. That's also true to some extent if we lose. But there's this perfect gap where we make enough gains to screw up the Liberals, but not enough to take the seats from the Conservatives.

Funny enough, the election seems like it happened at the perfect time. A few days earlier, and the Liberals wouldn't have tanked in Ontario. A few days later, and we might have gotten enough seats to stop the Conservatives from sneaking up the rightward flank.

babbler 8

I'd take every conclusion 308 comes to with a huge grain of salt, particularly at the seat level. Their record in predicting the last federal election speaks for itself. Much like the pro-strategic voting sites, 308 tries to make numbers say more than they really say. Also, I contend that the last Liberal votes that the NDP will shake loose from the Liberals are in Liberal held seats, so I wouldn't lose too much sleep over NDP gains. The main issue I have about 308 is their slavish adherance to a flawed model over common sense.

The monthly averages I do like though, and as the last sentence says: "A last snapshot, then, of the political landscape in Canada before the arrival of Thomas Mulcair." All polls since Mulcair took the leadership show the NDP and Cons statistically even, so there would have to be some pretty wild vote distributions for this to result in anything other than a minority parliament.

Another pet peeve I have with 308 is that they completely don't look at momentum, in fact they provide so much "hysteresis" that they are actually doing the opposite of considering momentum. This does avoid showing false change, but like in the case of the last election it also made it look like the shift to the NDP wasn't really happening until much after it started. Astute political observers understood that when the NDP passed the Liberals they would most likely keep going up by peeling off strategic voters. (regardless of how strategic their vote really was), whereas 308's models were still looking at what happened 2-3 weeks earlier.

So that said, I predict that most of the new polls will show the NDP leading in the near future, and I think we've only seen the beginning of the Mulcair bounce. If I was a Liberal I would be desperately trying to figure out a way of reversing this trend.

Stockholm

When the April polling averages come out in a few weeks we may see the NDP in first place in both vote share and seat count for the first time!!

Ippurigakko

Yeah,

 

here I made line graph on MS excel

May 2, 2011 to April 4, 2012

[img]http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/485166_10150918477363998_...

 

Better than Wikipedia fed poll firm graph?

Cons going to dive, NDP going to tsunami wave, Libs going to die like flat, and finally Green/BQ are usually neck and neck but Green beats BQ

mtm

why do the ndp dots turn red.  Confusing...

Ippurigakko

Lol, its Dark Orange looks like Red colour.

That what i use MS excel "Gradient line colour" not Solid line.

Doctor Manderly

For polling data usually the data favours the folks who pay for it...follow the money...

 

So, if the Polling firm gets their $$$ from the Liberals... the report will favour them, 

babbler 8

Thanks for the graph, Ippurigakko, love it!

Very Far Away

Doctor Manderly wrote:

For polling data usually the data favours the folks who pay for it...follow the money...

 

So, if the Polling firm gets their $$$ from the Liberals... the report will favour them, 

 

This is not always the case. Especially for reputable market research companies.

 

Doctor Manderly

Not always  but especially during elections they are worth taking with a grain of salt

 

It is very easy to frame the questions to get the answer you want

 

 

NorthReport

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 

Doctor Manderly

NorthReport wrote:

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 

Oh for sure, I just mean there is more on the line near elections....

Many foks like to vote for winners for some reason...so if they see poll projecting certain party to win it influences their vote...

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

What CTV poll are you guys referencing regarding Rae? And does the CTV poll show the Libs ahead of the NDP? I looked on their website and I can't see anything. I don't know to which polls you guys are referring.

Very Far Away

NorthReport wrote:

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 

 

Sorry, I don`t agree with you, NorthReport.

If you really think a reputable market research company changes the real numbers, then you must never believe the results of any polling. If this is the case, this polling thread is meaningless, isn`t it?

Of course, different market research companies may show different results for the same kind of polling and this is normal. There is no 100% correct polling. 

 

 

 

Northern-54

As I read NorthReport's comments, he spoke of believing polls more when close to elections.  I find polls during elections, when the election date is more than 10 days away, to be suspect.  Polling firms that do a lot of government business have too much vested interest for me to trust them. Having analyzed night by night results of NANOS during the last election, for example, shows that the results of some of the nights were so improbable as to be statistically impossible, not once but several times.  It is telling that similar analysis close to election night shows no "beyond the realm" of possibility evenings.  NorthReport is correct when he says that there is no way of "proving" that the polls are manipulated unless it is very close to an election date.

In between elections, I am more likely to trust those firms without strong connections to one political party or another.  There have been too many cases of "push polls" undertaken by "reputable" firms for me to trust results all the time.  Since the Liberal Party has fallen to third place, I tend to trust EKOS more now as there is no obvious connection between company government business and the polling results.  I trust the Conservative pollsters less now as there is such an obvioius connection.  I distrust NANOS polls the most.  I tend to like Harris Decima in spite of the company's Conservative connections.

On the other hand, if an election is due within a few days, I trust that all reputable pollsters are trying to get their polling result to reflect what the actual outcome will be.  Therefore, there is a time when I have a lot of trust in pollsters.

Ippurigakko

Arthur, here website:

http://social.ctvnews.ca/topic.php?topicid=19024&featurePollId=19471

down scrolls

 

whos should lead Canada: 1,500 votes (from recent 1,400)

Rae 50% from 51%
Mulcair 29% from 30%
Harper 21% from 19%

who would you vote for?

Rae 41% from 42%
Mulcair 36% from 37%
Harper 19% from 16%
Paille or May 4% from 5%

 

and another more CTV polls here:
http://social.ctvnews.ca/topic.php?topicid=20745&featurePollId=20746

 

Can Thomas Mulcair carry on the Layton Legacy?
No 63%
Yes 37%

Can Mulcair beat Harper?
No 54%
Yes 46%

Can the NDP win the next election?

No, not ready 54%
Yes, an NDP PM 46%

What would Jack say about the new NDP?
Proud to be an NDPER 50%
Going the wrong way 37%
Not sure 7%
True to our roots 5%

 

Doctor Manderly

Very Far Away wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

There is no way to gage how accurate a polling firm is between elections and the polling companies know it. It is only when we are close to actual elections they have to have some semblance of closeness to the actual voting results otherrwise they can be discredited. That is basically the only time where they have to be careful. And that's why pollsters can put out polls right now saying anything and who can prove them incorrect? Not saying they do or don't, just suggesting that they all have to be taken with a huge grain of salt. 

 

Sorry, I don`t agree with you, NorthReport.

If you really think a reputable market research company changes the real numbers, then you must never believe the results of any polling. If this is the case, this polling thread is meaningless, isn`t it?

Of course, different market research companies may show different results for the same kind of polling and this is normal. There is no 100% correct polling. 

 

 

 

Do you not agree that is is very possible to skew your poll results based on how you pose the questions?

Very Far Away

"Do you not agree that is is very possible to skew your poll results based on how you pose the questions?"

Of course, it's very possible to skew poll results. That`s why I said "reputable" market research companies.

Very Far Away

Northern-54 wrote:

As I read NorthReport's comments, he spoke of believing polls more when close to elections.  I find polls during elections, when the election date is more than 10 days away, to be suspect.  Polling firms that do a lot of government business have too much vested interest for me to trust them. Having analyzed night by night results of NANOS during the last election, for example, shows that the results of some of the nights were so improbable as to be statistically impossible, not once but several times.  It is telling that similar analysis close to election night shows no "beyond the realm" of possibility evenings.  NorthReport is correct when he says that there is no way of "proving" that the polls are manipulated unless it is very close to an election date.

In between elections, I am more likely to trust those firms without strong connections to one political party or another.  There have been too many cases of "push polls" undertaken by "reputable" firms for me to trust results all the time.  Since the Liberal Party has fallen to third place, I tend to trust EKOS more now as there is no obvious connection between company government business and the polling results.  I trust the Conservative pollsters less now as there is such an obvioius connection.  I distrust NANOS polls the most.  I tend to like Harris Decima in spite of the company's Conservative connections.

On the other hand, if an election is due within a few days, I trust that all reputable pollsters are trying to get their polling result to reflect what the actual outcome will be.  Therefore, there is a time when I have a lot of trust in pollsters.

 

Here are the polls before the last election (campaign and pre-campaign):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_ele...

Some figures are kind of weird, but in general they all show the "trends" and that`s the most important thing.

 

 

NorthReport

Polling can be skewed in many different ways. 

A simple example is for a pollster who wants to show a particualr political party looking good. All the pollster has to do is overpoll in a geographical area that is favourable to that political party. Or if they want to show a political party looking bad, all they have to do is do the opposite, and underpoll in areas that are favourable to therm.

But regardless of whether or not we can believe polling results, they can have a huge impact on the voting public, and that is why there are so many of them released, particularily around election time.

CanadaApple

Ippurigakko wrote:

here I made line graph on MS excel

That's a great graph! good job!

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

When the April polling averages come out in a few weeks we may see the NDP in first place in both vote share and seat count for the first time!!

There has to be a bit of a spread in the % before the NDP pulls ahead in the seat count.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

So basically, these are polls that reflect the fact no one really knows Mulcair, the fact that the NDP in Opposition has been seem as leaderless, and the MSM have been treating the Libs as though they were the government in waiting. Basically, people are being asked for opinons based on deception and falsehoods.

Nope, these dont worry me in the least. Just like all the polls that said the NDP was done in Quebec. I didn't either believe them or worry them, and I'm not going to worry about these either.

CTV can poll all they want. And it was Nanos, all I can say is, what do you expect?

Big deal!

ETA: Ippurigakko, thanks very much my friend. Cheers!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Headline on www.cbc.ca/politics webpage, Liberal MPs say F-35 buy bungled. No wonder Rae is rated highly. I am sorry, but I really hate the CBC, and the rest of g-d MSM. When are they going to figure out the Libs are the OO and Rae isn't leader of the OO? I mean, really!

Sean in Ottawa

Seat counts over-represent parties going down and under-represent parties going up as a general rule. And I mean this in terms of long-term trends.

I think it is partly because the over-value incumbency but there is another reason. When a party is very low their support is more evenly spread but as it increases peaks and valleys appear. A party that is low in an area and moving up will according to the model keep the same flat appearance and not have that gain reflected in seats but when a party in reality comes up and the peaks appear those will become gains in seats the model did not see. Problem is you cannot predict where they will be-- there is no possible model for that as the historical baseline is flat.

By the same token parties going down are expected to keep the same peaks and valleys when in reality they tend to flatten out. There are exceptions of course with candidates who are elected not because of the party but because of their personal popularity.

Ippurigakko

Yeah.

 

Where the hell is Nanos?? What so long he wait for? Is he fear better than hope? lol
it was last update in Feb 28!

 

Edit: Arthur, CBC readers are more NDP supporters than CTV, Last month they polls says:

Is Thomas Mulcair the right choice to lead the NDP? Why or why not? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Yes -  59.44%  (2,855 votes) <--- 2,855 NDP supporters
No -  23.53%  (1,130 votes) <--- 1,130 non-NDP supporters must be Libs or Cons

but yeah CBC is Liberal media.

socialdemocrati...

Keep in mind the news media is still just a social club. If you have a relationship with journalists where you can call them up and say "here's my comment on this story, please post it", that relationship might persist regardless of your electoral fortunes.

The media has always hated the NDP. Because they're a business, and we're "anti-business", whatever that means.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Ippurigakko wrote:

Yeah.

 

Where the hell is Nanos?? What so long he wait for? Is he fear better than hope? lol
it was last update in Feb 28!

 

Edit: Arthur, CBC readers are more NDP supporters than CTV, Last month they polls says:

Is Thomas Mulcair the right choice to lead the NDP? Why or why not? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.

Yes -  59.44%  (2,855 votes) <--- 2,855 NDP supporters
No -  23.53%  (1,130 votes) <--- 1,130 non-NDP supporters must be Libs or Cons

but yeah CBC is Liberal media.

Nanos did the same thing in the federal election. He didn't poll after the NDP surged and blamed it on the Easter weekend. All the other companies had registered the surge before Nanos. He is a slave.

Stockholm

New Forum poll just of Quebec confirms the massive surge for the NDP under Mulcair:

NDP - 41%

BQ - 22%

Libs - 16%

CPC - 14%

The parties are all almost exactly where they were on election night 2011 - whihc means 59 NDP seats again!

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/04/11/ndp-lead-all-parties-i...

Ippurigakko

Good to see NDP stays alive in Quebec.

I knew they would vote only native Quebecker leader rather than non-Quebecker as always.

NorthReport

Quote:
“I think those of us that supported Tom were hoping and expecting that this would be the kind of reaction. That’s one of the reasons we chose him,” Mr. Christopherson said.

Mr. Christopherson acknowledged the challenge facing the party now is in Ontario, where the NDP won only 22 of the province’s 106 Commons seats in the May election.

“I think we’re going to see a turnaround in Ontario, but it’s not going to happen right away, it’s going to be a gradual build,” Mr. Christopherson said, admitting Mr. Mulcair is an unknown product so far in the country’s most populous province.

“Any new leader has the challenge of getting themselves known, and quite frankly you don’t really become a household name until you’re about two weeks into an election, whether that’s national or provincial, in my experience,” he said. “We have more in the Ontario caucus now than we had in the entire national caucus when I arrived in 2004. We’ve gained seats every election, and it certainly gets tougher with every success to move on to the next success, but we’re committed to it and I think there is going to be a very positive, favourable response to Tom Mulcair and his approach to offering an alternative government.”

Stockholm

Ippurigakko wrote:

Good to see NDP stays alive in Quebec.

I knew they would vote only native Quebecker leader rather than non-Quebecker as always.

Except that last year Quebecers voted for "Toronto Jack" over Gilles Duceppe the pur-laine Quebecois icon

Aristotleded24

Stockholm wrote:

Ippurigakko wrote:

Good to see NDP stays alive in Quebec.

I knew they would vote only native Quebecker leader rather than non-Quebecker as always.

Except that last year Quebecers voted for "Toronto Jack" over Gilles Duceppe the pur-laine Quebecois icon

And considering that the first ever NDP leader from Quebec actually presided over a drop of popular support in la belle province....

Ippurigakko

Yes but Jack was Quebecker also, he was born in there.

janfromthebruce

yes Ippurigakko, but there was 2 leadership candidates from Quebec, both born in Quebec.

Very Far Away

janfromthebruce wrote:

yes Ippurigakko, but there was 2 leadership candidates from Quebec, both born in Quebec.

[/quote

 

Thomas Mulcair was born in Ottawa, Ontario:)

JeffWells

Good news from New Brunswick, though I don't have access to the data.

Translation:

Quote:
Finally hope for the NDP: Wednesday, April 11, 2012

FREDERICTON - The New Democratic Party of New Brunswick is experiencing a resurgence in popularity in the city of St. John. To such an extent that it exceeds the Conservatives and Liberals in the polls.

http://www.capacadie.com/actualites/2012/4/11/enfin-de-l-espoir-pour-le-npd

adma

Very Far Away wrote:

janfromthebruce wrote:

yes Ippurigakko, but there was 2 leadership candidates from Quebec, both born in Quebec.

 

Thomas Mulcair was born in Ottawa, Ontario:)

 

Speaking of in terms of 2003: Layton + Ducasse?

 

Sean in Ottawa

Quebec in this sense is like any other electorate the world over. They vote for people who understand them, talk to them and support their values. Just like Alberta.

Canadians outside Quebec like to spotlight this because at moments the rest of Canada and Quebec are out of touch.

What the NDP is trying to do is build a bridge here.

Sean in Ottawa

Or from another angle-- people in Quebec like those in the rest of Canada will vote for people who can communicate with them in their own language. The rest of Canada is not different-- Hello Stéphane?

Québec is very different from the rest of Canada in many ways no need to point to no-existant differences, I think.

Not trying to be mean here as many have this point of view but sure would be nice to bust the myth.

Stockholm

I hope no one thinks that this means that all the Tories need to do is make Maxime Bernier their new leader and they can then expect to be competitive in Quebec!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Stock, that goes without saying Wink

JeffWells

Detail on the NB poll:

 

Quote:
Environics Poll Shows New Democrats in the Lead in Saint John: New Democrats 39%, PCs 33%, Liberals 28%

...

 

Environics Vice President Derek Leebosh said “The New Democrats have been gaining ground across Atlantic Canada in recent federal and provincial elections. In Nova Scotia and Newfoundland that growth started in urban areas, such as Halifax and St. John's. We are now seeing a similar trend to the NB New Democrats in Saint John. This is bolstered by the federal NDP's rise to official opposition status and the NB NDP's growing visibility.”

http://www.nbndp.ca/node/636

 

Ippurigakko

Interesting about Iphone 4s apps that I created a poll and ask a question them for Federal thingy in polls,

Go to download "World's Opinion" click it and read it. Most of them from Ont/Quebec both 33% and Lib 50% and NDP 33% more than Cons only 17%, 18-24 67%, best PM Mulcair 67% and Harper 33%

ideological standpoints centre 83%, left 17% and right 0%

 

this poll is still ongoing 6% and remaining 94% then closed tonight or tomorrow

NorthReport

Tks JW

This is absolutely fantastic what is happening in Saint John, NB. I have to keep pinching myself to make sure what is going on with the NDP both provincially and federally across the country is real, but it is. Just amazingly delightful. But it won't mean much unless we kick Harper out of the PMO.

Ippurigakko

Ipsos Reid - April 12, 2012

 

CON 34% (-3 from 37)
NDP 33% (+4 from 29)
LIB 21% (-2 from 23)
BQ 7% (same)
GRN 4% (same)

 

http://www.canada.com/news/Conservative+popularity+falling+wake+recent+c...

Stockholm

whoop-dee-doo whoop-dee-doo whoop-dee-doo!

Stockholm

FYI, This latest set of polls showing the NDP tied with the Tories were all in field BEFORE anyone would have seen the new NDP ads introducing Mulcair...things could get better yet!

Pages