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Crossposted with Stockholm-- to answer Stockholm-- I disagree completely. Trudeau is not dumb at all. He is immature. The first is not curable -- the second with intense will and effort is.
I do not support Trudeau or particularly welcome his candidacy but I also do not underestimate the machine, the name, the people behind him and the potential for damage he can do. For NDP partisans you should not either. If the NDP takes Trudeau for granted we will be in for a surprise-- he will be a formidable opponent very different than Dion or Ignatieff and the NDP will have to have a strategy to oppose him. I'd start with the idea that he is a privileged actor who can play the part without being truly in touch. Thinking Trudeau will implode on his own without help is a very, very bad plan. His weaknesses could be largely concealed until after he becomes PM.
Sean, I think you have nailed this. We need to not take Trudeau or any of the rest of them for granted. We need to be very proactive and go very aggressively after the Lib record of governance. People need to know what the Libs actually stand for and what they have done each time they have been in governance, including when Trudeau's dad ran the show. I detest the sense of privlege Trudeau has to the leadership, and the nepotism, but if we don't very aggressively go after the Libs and tell people, first what will happen if the Libs win, and secondly why they show vote NDP, we will get clobbered. I don't want my MP, Kevin Lamoureux, suddenly being referred to as the "Parlimentary Secretary for blah, blah, blah". The problem is, I am not sure the brain trust that runs the NDP understands this at all.
The other thing to keep in mind about Trudeau is that as leader of a third party in a majority parliament - he will not be put to the test very much and will be able to get away with a low of platitudes for a long time...I see he is capable of taking advice - the problem is that a lot of it is bad and he takes it anyways - like who's crazy idea was it to have him record those ridiculous "robo-calles" in Kitchener-Waterloo?? (His excuse that "I just read the script they gave me" does not cut it.
His weaknesses would likely become apparent in an election campaign at the latest when he would expose himself as "not being ready for prime time". I agree that nothing should be taken for granted. Make no mistake about it - The Tories WANT Justin Trudeau to succeed. They do NOT want the anti-government vote to consolidate behind the NDP - with JT there is a better chance of an even split between the NDP and liberals and that makes Harper a happy man.
Another Huff Post Canada pro Trudeau Headline, "He Has It" and JT pictured with Obama, Front Page article penned by Grenier. I say it again, especially after reading SIO's comments' someone tell me why I shouldn't be worried. Frankly, I don't believe I shouldn't be. Trudeaumania is on the verge or re-emerging again and things going back to the way they were. I think this has disaster writtent all over it for the NDP. Seriously, someone tell me why it isn't time to worry. I think this has catastrophe for the NDP written all over it.
Trudeau is the new Belinda Stronach of Canadian politics. The fire will burn bright, then there will be a mighty swoon.
Everyone likes Trudeau for three reasons: 1) good looks 2) father's name [his dad was a once-in-a-generation politician] 3) directionless idealism (and only young people like him for this).
Tear him apart on the last one and he is finished.
Kelly Parkland nails it this time.
Still I do agree that Trudaeu's lack of substance needs to be exposed for all to see.
As for immaturity, how long has Trudeau been MP for? If he hasn't matured politically by now with, especially with the pressure on him to run as leader then when does he intend to do so. Even Ruth Ellen Brouseau has matured, winning a promotion and fighting for Quebecers.
I do believe we should take no risks and exposed Trudeau politically, for the name alone is a treat, even if only as a distraction. I say make him answer for being a Tory Bootlicker during the minority.
Still Trudeau's poll populatity screams CAQ, its built of fantasies painted upon a blank slate with no foundation to sustain its high support.
[quote=Brachina]http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/full-comment/blog.html?b=fullcomment.na... Kelly Parkland nails it this time. Still I do agree that Trudaeu's lack of substance needs to be exposed for all to see. As for immaturity, how long has Trudeau been MP for? If he hasn't matured politically by now with, especially with the pressure on him to run as leader then when does he intend to do so. Even Ruth Ellen Brouseau has matured, winning a promotion and fighting for Quebecers. I do believe we should take no risks and exposed Trudeau politically, for the name alone is a treat, even if only as a distraction. I say make him answer for being a Tory Bootlicker during the minority. Still Trudeau's poll populatity screams CAQ, its built of fantasies painted upon a blank slate with no foundation to sustain its high support.[/quote]
Hey! Lay off! The guy does have a BA in literature and worked a brief stint with Katimavik afterall. He is EMINENTLY qualified to be Prime Minister.
Not that we shouldn't have a counter-strategy for Trudeau (or anyone else who becomes leader of the Liberals, for that matter) but there are 2 things I think that Sean and others have over-looked:
1) Trudeau was not universally popular. He was hated in Western Canada, and even today, I hear people still speaking ill of him. The Trudeau name will not win over people in Western Canada.
2) Trudeau is a man of the past. While he no doubt left a great impression on this country, I doubt if contemporary voters who aren't political junkies will really be swayed by that name. Justin himself may sway some of the younger generation, but he will do that more on his own personal attributes more so than his name.
Besides, the number one thing the Liberals traditionally had going for them was to vote Liberal to stop the Conservatives. With the NDP now in first place and provincial Liberal brands tanking nation-wide, how to the Liberals prevent a compelling case to people who want to stop the Conservatives?
Imagine if it were not Justin, but Alexandre (i.e. Sacha) running for the leadership. He's the apparently less shallow brother, you know...
The hype about Justin Trudeau reminds me more and more of the mania around Kim Campbell's ascent to the leadership of the Progressive Conservatives in 1993.
And we all know what happened then!!!
Yeah, 12 years of Liberal rule!
[/quote] Yeah, 12 years of Liberal rule! Just kidding.[/quote]
Nobody has overlooked this-- I think you might be missing a couple things here though. History has been kind to Trudeau (the elder) and he is much more popular today than he was towards the end of his time as PM. I find it a bit of a contradiction when you suggest that those who dislike him remember him and those who might have liked him forget him. Secondly it is his son running and his son has more assets than the name. In a superficial world he has a lot of what he needs. As well he does not need to sway a majority of people-- 15% would take the Liberals from the back of the pack to the lead. For the NDP he should be regarded as dangerous. For Canadians longing to have an alternative progressive vision of the country this is a major threat. He can do what the Liberals always did best-- ride style over substance. You have only much of Canada's history to see this. If you don't take the threat of Trudeau seriously, you should.
That said Trudeau could blow up, the NDP is also formidable and could succeed-- but people need to work hard and plan for and adjust to these new realities. There are lots of arguments that can be made against Trudeau as PM-- but they won't be made if we have too many people pretending we do not have a real problem. The Liberals as I have said before need more than a wooden stake through their hearts to keep them down.
I regard Justin as a flake. I even see his speaking style as largely unsuitable for TV. All one has to do is look at his famous "separtist" speech where he refers to himself in the third person (as the old adage says "only Caesar can refer to himself in the third person) . His ovely dramatic style seems almost laughable. Doesn' he know that TV is a "cool medium".
Hoever, this doesn't mean he should be underestimated. We tend to regard our own opinions as being obvious and being widely held by others. I won't make that mistake here. When the Republicans nominated Reagan I saw an old actor with some strange beliefs which coud be easily satirized. I as wrong then and am probably wrong about Justin.
Justin is a threat and could easily win the whole enchilada. The NDP needs to plan for him. I think he may be more vulnerable than the Liberals realize.
Well the remaking of Justin, the hard worker who had to fight for his riding has begun. It's always helpful to start with a famour well-known name in Quebec, and lots of $$$ to run a campaign with paid workers. And that is what Justin had. To suggest, as I see in some MSM articles, they make it sound that all that money and support didn't exist. What a load of crap.
Having worked in campaigns, having that money to properly run a well resourced office, pay workers, and do ads and so on, is half the battle. So yes, the remaking of Justin is happening.
I feel likw Janet Brady. "Justin, Justin, Justin!"
In truth the Liberal Leadership race should come equipt with barf bag.
If it was mean I'd make sure that the Ontario Minority falls just in time for the heart of the,Liberal leadership race, to divide the liberals campaign workers and so,Dalton can,use Justin as a Political shield again :D
Actually, an interesting alternate comparison point might be Stockwell Day in 2000, i.e. how he went from a potential "Trudeau of the right" to a jetskiing creationist flake who thought Niagara Falls ran backwards...
Adma, that is so funny and true. The spin is that people don't vote for substance but for a personality. Pride comes before the fall reminds one here. Seriously, it's so over the top that it's like the Messiah has risen to take us to some utopian liberal land of "jobs jobs jobs" - lol - yeah, and I remember what that 1993 campaign ended up being: NAFTA, GST, reduced provincial transfer payments, stolen Employment insurance money to balance the liberal budget. Oh yes, it feels the same with all the milk and honey rah rah!
[quote=Aristotleded24]Trudeau was not universally popular. He was hated in Western Canada, and even today, I hear people still speaking ill of him. The Trudeau name will not win over people in Western Canada.[/quote]
You're forgetting - - Justin isn't Pierre's son (west of Ontario), he's Jimmy Sinclair's grandson. (From 1952 to 1957, he was the federal Minister of Fisheries; MP for North Vancouver since 1940 until defeated in 1958, then President and Chairman of Cement Lafarge Limited.)
I wouldn't take any candidate lightly. But Justin Trudeau only needs a bit of scrutiny before you realize he hasn't really done anything or stood for anything. A bit more scrutiny, and you find a flake who drifted from one thing to another, before drifting into the Critic for Amateur Sport, and now with hopes of drifting into leading a political party.
Here's the thing with Justin Trudeau. He's both a gaffe-prone flake, and someone who can move votes to the Liberals, especially in Quebec.
Trudeau will appeal to a segment of low information voters, on the basis of the family name and his good looks, and a Trudeau-led Liberal party would get a bump from this . Voters who can't be bothered to inform themselves enough to see the lack of substance, and who are less inclined to care about lack of substance than other voters.
Trudeau is also a gaffe-prone flake, and this puts a ceiling on how much of a bump the Liberals can get if they pick him as leader. At the same time, because that bump is likely to come primarily from low-information voters who pay little attention to politics, his gaffes won't do nearly as much damage as Igniatieff's gaffes did, for instance. And I get the feeling that the media are more inclined to treat Justin Trudeau with kid gloves, with Rex Muurphy's recent piece on The National about Trudeau's candidacy being a case in point. All of which means it will most likely take a higher number and level of gaffes before a Trudeau-led Liberal party would start to take a hit over it.
All of which I think would give the Liberals something in the order of a 5% bump in the polls. Not the end of the world, but not nothing either.
It is remarkable to compare the extent of the press coverage of the Liberal leadership race with that of the NDP.
Even with nine strong candidates and the leadership of the Official Opposition hanging in the balance, media reports of the NDP leadership race were few and far between, and seldom on the front pages.
In contrast, it is hard to escape the almost constant coverage of a one-man race to become leader of a third party which has only a third of the seats that the NDP has and which is currently languishing far behind in the polls.
I guess we should get used to it. The MSM by and large hates the idea that the NDP is a contender and will do what is necessary to help the Liberals supplant them.
I just read in the National Post that Justin Bieber threw up in Arizona. So, why is anyone surprised that Justin Trudeau's celebrity trumps Thomas Mulcair's beard on the front page?
Actually left Turn, this blogger would seriously disagree with your opinion that Trudeau would move votes in Quebec.
Justin Trudeau and the state of the federal Liberals in Quebec
TC, backs up his opinion with data and strongly suggests the Libs have major problems in Quebec. TC suggests that Mulcair has deeper roots and much wider backing in both French and English voters.
Indeed the Liberals last won a plurality of francophone votes in Quebec in 1980, some 32 years ago. Antagonism to the 1982 Constitution for allegedly 'excluding' Quebec, plus Meech Lake and sponsorship reduced the Liberals to their lowest point ever among the Quebec francophone electorate in 2011.
How bad is it for the Liberals in Quebec? Look at the table below which groups Quebec riding results from 2011 into three categories, by far the largest of which is "Most Francophone":
C.P.C Liberal NDP Green Bloc Other Total Most Francophone (85%+) 18.6% 8.8% 43.7% 2.0% 26.4% 0.5% 100.0% Intermediate (50% to 85%) 11.0% 18.5% 44.5% 2.2% 22.1% 1.7% 100.0% Anglo (Less than 50%) 19.8% 33.6% 33.7% 2.7% 9.6% 0.5% 100.0% Quebec - All voters 16.5% 14.2% 42.9% 2.1% 23.4% 0.9% 100.0% The Liberal vote among francophone voters is somewhere around 9%.
Interesting numbers for the Conservatives. They only polled 11% in ridings with a mixed linguistic population. They did their best in ridings with at least 50% Anglophones at 19.8% but ridings with over 85% Francophones at 18.6% were not far behind. Can some of our Quebec posters help explain this political dynamic to me.
Chantal Hbert has an excellent article about the Liberals, the NDP and Quebec today (when she's good she's GOOD)
But the most important difference between the Quebec Liberals and their poorer federal cousins ultimately involves their view of the NDP.
Seen from Liberal Ontario, where so many of the movers-and-shakers of the nascent federal leadership campaign hail from, the NDP is a provincial rival that has just killed Premier Dalton McGuinty’s bid for a governing majority at Queen’s Park and a federal usurper led by a leader of dubious federalist convictions.
But when Quebec Liberals look at the federal NDP and Thomas Mulcair, they see a party run by someone who was recently one of their own and alongside whom they fought for Canada in the referendum trenches.
From their angle, Mulcair is a natural ally who is keeping the Bloc Québécois at bay and consolidating Quebec’s federalist ranks in the process.
Those conflicting perceptions add up to a problematic circle for the next federal Liberal leader to square."
I wonder what the conversation will be six months from now.
Six months from now the Quebec Liberals might be so freaked out by Justin's Mulcair-baiting and the backlash it could cause in Quebec - there may be a movement to change the name of the party and get rid of the word "Liberal"
[quote=Left Turn]At the same time, because that bump is likely to come primarily from low-information voters who pay little attention to politics, his gaffes won't do nearly as much damage as Igniatieff's gaffes did, for instance.[/quote]
Low information voters still knew a few things about Ignatieff:
With just a bit more information, they uncovered:
The question is why the same thing wouldn't happen to Justin. With just a little bit of work, Canadians could come to believe:
We just need to heap on a bit more information again, to exacerbate what liabilities he already has.
Again, you don't need a TON of information to get that across.
It has come to my attention that Trudeau will be speaking in Richmond BC this Wednesday. Would you go if you had the opportunity?
I remember seeing some non-Dippers at the NDP leadership events, scoping out the territory.
yeah, I would go.
Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.
[quote=theleftyinvestor]Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.[/quote]
Except Trudeau doesn't have to win the confidence of the Liberal Party membership, he just has to convince Canadians who aren't members of any other federal political party to pay a fee and vote for him.
And who says he can even hold onto his own riding next time? He received less support in 2011 than he did in 2008, and should support for the B.Q. crumble once the voter subsidy ends, there will be a lot of ex-Bloc voters who won't ever vote Liberal that could be looking to the NDP to send him packing. Especially since as Liberal Party leader, he'll have to spend most of the election away from his home riding.
What a Justin Trudeau leadership bid will do for the convention is that people would actually watch it. Absent Trudeau, six months from now we'll be saying "hey, aren't the libs having a convention?" and the more astute among us will say "they had it two months ago, it was won by ....uhhh...some guy in a suit I think." He's a gift for the convention, and I'm sure he was encouraged to run for that reason. He's also good at raising funds. These are no small considerations.
Now, if he wins. He damn well better have a lot more substance that he's been hiding somewhere, along with maybe Kieth Davey stuffed in a closet somewhere to bring out. If not he'll be shredded in the house, by both Mulcair and Harper.
Given the cyncism around paying fees and supporting parties in general (especially with the Liberals), I find this scenario hard to imagine
socialdem I think you are missing the fact that our current PM had not held a steady job for 5 years either when he became the Leader.
Trudeau is a flake and I think he will become the federal equivalent of the BC Liberal's Christy Clark. All photo op and no substance. There is too much time between next April and 2015 for him to pull it off because even the CBC will have a hard time pandering to him for years when people start to understand how lame he really is.
I hope you are right. It'd make the campaign easier.
And who says he can even hold onto his own riding next time? He received less support in 2011 than he did in 2008, and should support for the B.Q. crumble once the voter subsidy ends, there will be a lot of ex-Bloc voters who won't ever vote Liberal that could be looking to the NDP to send him packing. Especially since as Liberal Party leader, he'll
have to spend most of the election away from his home riding.
Should he win the leadership, Trudeau would have plenty of time to campaign across the country (something that he's been seen doing already). As for BQ supporters (they continue to exist), their party need only run a full slate of candidates to retain those core supporters who eschew federalism altogether, regardless of how it's dissembled.
there is 7 list
so Martha H. Findlay enters liberal leadership.
Martha is sounds like Wildrose to me in cbc news today. Am i only thinking ?
I continue to note the contrast between media coverage of the Liberal and NDP leadership races. It seemed that weeks could pass without any major story on the NDP race which was a highly competitive contest to choose the leader of the Official Opposition.
Yet we have almost daily major stories on the Liberals who are choosing the leader of a Third Party in a race which seems to be completely predetermined.
The msm love affair with the libs continues.
Hall Findlay was interviewed on P&P last night - she said she supports the pipelines, especially the Northern Gateway; and wants to eliminate 'supply management'. She was quite awkward and/or uncomfortable under Evan Solomon's questioning. She said financing her campaign will be no problem, but when asked where the financing is coming from, she could not give an answer. I don't think she will win the leadership. She came across as really right wing.
Hoping this goes through without an error message!
I hope they elect her liberal leader, it will be conservative and liberal are vote splitting and ndp going win. lool
Justin lost his cool the other day - loved this comment in the comment section which actually is correct (because I saw the same snootiness), "Arrogance that has never been earned."
Justin Trudeau attacks Sun News over vets questions
It's in absolutely in poor taste to send people to a link that ends up as a donation to the liberal party. If you are going to complain about misdirection concerning "robocalls" that sent people to the wrong voting stations than you can't basically pull similar stunts in campaigns - pot meet kettle, and Trudeau has earned nothing to show the disdain he did towards this reporter and by extension, vets, and potential voters.
Now classy was when Jack and Olivia went onto the Sun News TV station when it started during the 2011 election - they were upbeat and in fact, Olivia wore a sleeveless dress and took her jacket off in support of the female news person who was being lambasted by MSM and perhaps "high brows" for baring some arm.
Now that was classy - Trudeau not classy!
But if she wins, and the Liberals somehow return to power, she will be another Harper.
There is no way she can compete for NDP votes, she's lose the Liberal left, but she's just popular enough amoung Tories to split the Tory vote. Not that I think she has a chance against Kardashianmania, she's just running so Trudeau can pretend there's a race going on, when really its still a corenation.
Mulcair actually faced some real challengers on his way to winning the leadership, and it took him four ballots to win. What are the odds of Justin not winning on the first ballot?
Fair enough. But at least it's not a Paul Martin type of scenario.
Andrew Coyne: How to enjoy third-party status in a few easy steps
Justin Trudeau backs Chinese takeover of Nexen as way to strengthen economic ties
OTTAWA — Justin Trudeau has come out strongly in favour of a Chinese state-owned energy company’s effort to purchase Calgary-based petroleum producer Nexen.
Trudeau made the comments in an opinion column published in some Postmedia newspapers and websites Tuesday, arguing that China’s objectives are not “sinister” and that Canada is in an enviable position for engaging the Asian power.
“China has a game plan,” the Liberal leadership contender wrote. “There is nothing inherently sinister about that. They have needs and the world has resources to meet those needs.
“We Canadians have more of those resources — and therefore more leverage — than any nation on Earth.”
How do you write Trudeaumania in Chinese? :P