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Liberal leadership race

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autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
janfromthebruce wrote:

Autoworker, there was one poll with the NDP not leading or tied with the Cons and you are stating "listing starboard of late"! Wow, liberal fantasy is working overtime.

That may be why their ballast has shifted.

Caissa
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Joined: Jun 14 2006

The long wait for Justin Trudeau's difficult decision appears to be over: Radio-Canada is reporting that the Quebec MP and son of former prime minister Pierre Trudeau will announce early next week that he will run for the leadership of the federal Liberal Party.

Trudeau is expected to make the announcement at a news conference in his Montreal riding of Papineau on Tuesday.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/09/26/justin-trudeau-liberal-leadership.html


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Of course, after all, his last name is Trudeau, and therefore he is THE ONLY ONE who can save Canada, right? He just can't resist, talk about ego.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

My first question for Trudeau is, should the Liberal Party merge with the NDP? He seems to be of the type that has suggested this before.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

felixr wrote:

My first question for Trudeau is, should the Liberal Party merge with the NDP? He seems to be of the type that has suggested this before.



Sure they can, just give up their LPC memberships and join the NDP. If they are lefties, what's the problem. Dont' expect it; Trudeau and the Libs ARE CORPORATISTS BEHOLDEN TO OLD MONEY AND BAY STREET!


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

I am not sure that a two party system is the best for Canada. Also I am not inclined to say there is no difference between the Liberals and the Cosnervatives. I think it is possible and even appropriate to see a difference even while rejecting them both and acknowledging where they are similar.

I also don't think it is appropriate to bank on the continued weakness of the Liberals to defeat the Conservatives. I also do not accept the concept of reducing electoral choices through merger and deals between parties.

There must be another strategy.

For starters, Trudeau and the Liberals say they are open to what Canaidans have to say. They should be lobbied to commit now to voting at every opportunity to change the first past the post system to a proportional system. In such a system the NDP would also not likely ever enjoy a majority but the benefits are massive: the Conservative woudl not be able to govern with absolute rule with a third of the vote; every vote would count and people would be encouraged to participate; all choices for all parties would have some weight and value; voters woudl not see their electoral chocie shrink but rather they woudl grow in viability; parliament woudl be dragged into an era when parties woudl have to cooperate to get their agenda passed rather thanimpose their agenda or simply campaign incessently until they can. I won't support Trudeau. But he could, if he wants to, lead to a more democratic system than what we have and he should be lobbied to that end. now that his party is more likely to be the loser in the FPTP system, perhaps that reality will convince him to do the right thing. The NDP, for its part, must keep the proportional vote promise even as it may mean a little less power should we be in a position to win a false majority.


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
In a popularity contest, Trudeau may do quite well in attracting interest to the Liberal brand. He's most compatible with reality t.v., and celebrity journalism. As a product of popular culture, he can certainly edge out the competition for front page photo-ops. Who needs policy when you have star power?

mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

felixr wrote:

My first question for Trudeau is, should the Liberal Party merge with the NDP? He seems to be of the type that has suggested this before.

 

If the NDP continues to grow in popularity, perhaps the Liberals and the Conservatives will consider merging.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

Mulcair opposed Libs merge with the NDP... So I glad...

I agree Lib should merge with Conservative. lol


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Bien dit.

mark_alfred wrote:

felixr wrote:

My first question for Trudeau is, should the Liberal Party merge with the NDP? He seems to be of the type that has suggested this before.

 

If the NDP continues to grow in popularity, perhaps the Liberals and the Conservatives will consider merging.


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

Hebert suggested that Trudeau's name appeal still runs deep with immigrants in Ontario, and these are voters that the Conservatives successfully courted in the last election.  So, his leadership could help reduce Conservative votes, allowing a greater chance of an NDP win.


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

Mark Carney is being toted as another dream candidate for the Libs. No indication yet as to whether he's interested or not. Justin Trudeau running against Deborah Coyne would be an interesting match-up. Smile


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

Another thing the Hebert article says is that none of the potential candidates are great political thinkers, so we shouldn't expect any great policy any time soon. Trudeau supposedly has a policy guru in his shop and has been trying to get out in front of this perceived weakness but I am very doubtful it will work. The guy is a flake.

The Liberals badly need a candidate of substance to get back in the game. With Trudeau, all they get, is back in the headlines.

As for an NDP-Liberal merger, that makes about as much sense as running a vegetarian butcher shop, but Trudeau has danced dangerously close to saying it. What's more, he is elected in Quebec and Quebeckers overwhelming want to see the NDP and Liberals cooperate. In fact, it's a pretty popular sentiment in other pockets of Canada as well (like the GTA and Vancouver). As the Liberal base implodes, a lot of Liberal-NDP swing voters don't want to split their vote. I wish I had a maple dip donut for every time someone said to me, "the Liberals are led by an ex-NDP and the NDP are led by an ex-Liberal, so why don't they just [merge, work together, etc]"

We've got to get used to this strategic reality that Canadians want us to cooperate and figure out how to cope with it. Clearly, I don't want the Liberals onside but until they fully collapse people will want cooperation and Justin is likely to get himself in trouble every time he talks about it. 


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

I think if Trudeau does win it, it would hasten the end of the Liberal party. So, yeah, let's cheer him on! Laughing


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

I don't think there's any chance of Mark Carney running.


NorthReport
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Joined: Jul 6 2008

Trudeau will run and win the LPC Leadership - the LIberals are on the ropes, desperate to return to their glory days of old,  so he/they have no other choice.


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

please let Trudeau quits on race before april..


TheArchitect
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Joined: Sep 15 2011

Liberal MPs Scott Simms and Massimo Pacetti are endosing Trudeau.

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/politics/2012/09/26/grit-mps-pacetti-simms...


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Greg Weston: Can the Liberals really snag Mark Carney for leader?

A group of influential federal Liberals is trying to convince Mark Carney to quit his job as the governor of the Bank of Canada to run for the leadership of their party. Seriously.

So I'm thinking that the corporate/business liberals who run the show aren't thinking that Justin is ready for prime time.

I was trying to think about anything Trudeau has done, policy wise that is memorable. For the life of me, there is none - nada. He got elected 4 years ago, and his claim to fame is critic of sport, telling someone they are a piece of sh_t, Vicileaks, and defending Katimavik.

I'm thinking that the group of influential federal Liberals are thinking the same thing as me, but of course in a different sense.

Anyway, I agree with this about Carney and posted by a commenter on that article:

Keeping interest rates low and scolding Canada for not exploiting our natural resources fast enough, make him a candidate for political leadership? We know nothing about his stance on healthcare, education, the environment, our troubled Native people, Veterans Affairs, The Military, the Fisheries,etc. Wonder if he discusses these issues at the Bilderberg secret meetings? Do we want a continuing New World Order controlled by Corporations or do we want a Canadian leader who will work for all Canadians?

 


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

Jan, great post!


kropotkin1951
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Joined: Jun 6 2002

Canadian democracy would benefit from PR and somewhere between three and five parties in the House of Commons.  The last thing the left needs is a two party system.  It always means that the policy of the left party tilts to the centre right as it tries to grow beyond its natural base.  One only has to look south of the border to know that if the Liberals disappear the NDP are now as left wing as they ever will be in the future.  That is just straight electoral politics.  To attract the people who have always voted Liberal they must not be too left wing and anything from the NDP's left past was too left wing for those voters.


josh
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Joined: Aug 5 2002

Boom Boom wrote:

I think if Trudeau does win it, it would hasten the end of the Liberal party. So, yeah, let's cheer him on! Laughing

In an exclusive poll conducted for the National Post, Forum found if Mr. Trudeau were leader of the Liberal Party and an election were held today, the Grits would win, handily, with 39% of the popular vote.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives would come in second, with 32% of the vote, and the NDP — today the Official Opposition and led by Thomas Mulcair — would return to third-party status, with just 20% of the vote.

“The real news here is that Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader has the effect of taking all the wind out of the NDP’s sails,” said Lorne Bozinoff, Forum Research’s president, of the 14% bump Mr. Trudeau would lend the Liberals.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/09/27/with-justin-trudeau-as-their-leader-liberals-could-easily-win-federal-election-exclusive-poll/


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

I don't believe that poll. I think if Trudeau wins it, the Liberal Party will disintegrate. Trudeau is a nobody, although he's a nice guy.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

There was a similar poll conducted previously. It showed the Liberals in first and the NDP and CPC tied around second. I think the poll is based on people's show biz image of Trudeau. In that area he truly excells, in the rest he is deeply gaffe prone. The Ottawa Liberal establishment does not have faith in him and that is as big a reason as any that you will see him run with a young campaign team.


JeffWells
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Joined: Dec 15 2003

The Liberals know him better than anyone. That's why he was given the showcase shadow cabinet role of critic for Post Secondary Education, Youth and Amateur Sport.

Once he has to prove himself an equal to Mulcair and Harper I'm not expecting a lengthy honeymoon.


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

It would be good if Trudeau became the leader of the Liberals.  He seems progressive and open to a coalition.  He would get much of the immigrant vote due to the allegiance to his father for increasing immigration during his reign, which would steal votes from the Tories (who previously took many votes from some socially conservative immigrants).  So, the Liberals would win more seats from the Tories AND be willing to form a coalition with the NDP.  Tories would still come first, but with less seats, with the NDP second and the Liberals in a stronger third (thus a minority).  So, Canada would have its first social democratic government in coalition with the centrist Liberals who would be led by a (presumably) relatively progressive leader.  Sounds very good to me.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

I'm not sure i agree with you...first of all Justin's father was last PM 27 years ago...today's immigrants virtually all came to Canada after the Trudeau had already ended. Secondly any immigrants who are attracted to a Justin led Liberal Party because he seems so progressive are not going to be socially conservative types - if anything just on a superficial level Justin would come across as much more "post-modern" and "trendy" than Tom Mulcair does - so I cannot see Justin attracting anyojne who is currently a Conservative. If Justin exceeds expectations and is a "hit" (which I very much doubt), the support he attractes will come 100% from the NDP and he will not draw ANYONE from the Conservatives. For that reason i think the Tories will be very nice to him and will secretly want him to succeed. More likely he will suffer a Christy Clark style flop and the NDP will soon be the clear alternative to the Tories.


Very Far Away
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Joined: Sep 20 2011

If he runs he will be the leader of LP. That`s for sure. I don`t think Liberals can choose anyone else as their leader when the party has been going down since Jean Chretien (polls and elections).

In the next election, he will be stealing votes (a lot of votes) from NDP, not from Conservatives. We have to admit: This is not good news for NDP. Having said that if we don`t have a majority government, a coaliton between NDP and LP with a progressive agenda could be something to think about.


Stockholm
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Joined: Sep 29 2002

Very Far Away wrote:

In the next election, he will be stealing votes (a lot of votes) from NDP, not from Conservatives. We have to admit: This is not good news for NDP. Having said that if we don`t have a majority government, a coaliton between NDP and LP with a progressive agenda could be something to think about.

I don't think we should jump to that conclusion at all. By all accounts Justin Trudeau is as dumb as a post and very gaffe prone. People are project a lot on to him that simply is not there. The point I was making was that IF (a huge IF) he defies all expectations and turns out to be incredibly shrewd, intelligent, politically adept leader - it would be dangerous for the NDP - but more likely the bloom will fade very quickly and the Liberals will be back in the teens.


Sean in Ottawa
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Joined: Jun 3 2003

Trudeau should not be underestimated he has a lot going for him and the things going for him matter in politics more than any negatives he has.

His positives include that he is likeable both by a crowd and one on one; he has very good contacts; he has strong party support including the kind that writes cheques; he appeals to an emotional side of voters; he represents a civil past and future unlike the current nastiness; his association with his father is near mythic-- Canadians remember the outpouring at his father's funeral, they know his father "brought home the Charter" which is extremely popular. They do not remember much of the things people hated about Trudeau. They have the impression of a man who was strong but kind and humorous-- unlike the petty nastiness governing Canada today. In fact I would argue that generally the public history has been overly kind to Trudeau and the current context plays in his favour.

There is no doubt in my mind that Trudeau carries with him an enormous potential to split the anti-Conservative vote perhaps so evenly that the Conservatives could win with an appallingly low level of support.

The NDP leader is known to be crusty and nasty rather than likeable. It is the caricature that he has. People are seeing through this caricature but the portrayal that is presented by his enemies is this caricature.

It is early yet to be able to predict how the dynamics will go in a three way race and it is difficult to predict how Trudeau will fare.

Those who say that Trudeau is bound to fail because he is too green don't understand the role of the machine, the amount of support and advice leaders have and how much of what you see is backroom and how little is the actual candidate. Trudeau is capable of taking advice and that is all he needs to be in order to bring a lot of power to the table. They don't take account of how shallow Canadians are. They don't take account of the intense cribbing politicians can do-- leaders get a lot of training that the public does not become party to.


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