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Liberal leadership race

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janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

yeah, I would go.


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008
Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.

David Young
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Joined: Dec 9 2007

theleftyinvestor wrote:
Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.

Except Trudeau doesn't have to win the confidence of the Liberal Party membership, he just has to convince Canadians who aren't members of any other federal political party to pay a fee and vote for him.

And who says he can even hold onto his own riding next time?  He received less support in 2011 than he did in 2008, and should support for the B.Q. crumble once the voter subsidy ends, there will be a lot of ex-Bloc voters who won't ever vote Liberal that could be looking to the NDP to send him packing.  Especially since as Liberal Party leader, he'll have to spend most of the election away from his home riding.

 


oldgoat
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Joined: Jul 27 2001

What a Justin Trudeau leadership bid will do for the convention is that people would actually watch it.  Absent Trudeau, six months from now we'll be saying "hey, aren't the libs having a convention?" and the more astute among us will say "they had it two months ago, it was won by ....uhhh...some guy in a suit I think."  He's a gift for the convention, and I'm sure he was encouraged to run for that reason.  He's also good at raising funds.  These are no small considerations.

Now, if he wins.  He damn well better have a lot more substance that he's been hiding somewhere, along with maybe Kieth Davey stuffed in a closet somewhere to bring out.  If not he'll be shredded in the house, by both Mulcair and Harper.

 


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

David Young wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:
Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.

Except Trudeau doesn't have to win the confidence of the Liberal Party membership, he just has to convince Canadians who aren't members of any other federal political party to pay a fee and vote for him.

Given the cyncism around paying fees and supporting parties in general (especially with the Liberals), I find this scenario hard to imagine


kropotkin1951
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Joined: Jun 6 2002

socialdem I think you are missing the fact that our current PM had not held a steady job for 5 years either when he became the Leader.

Trudeau is a flake and I think he will become the federal equivalent of the BC Liberal's Christy Clark.  All photo op and no substance.  There is too much time between next April and 2015 for him to pull it off because even the CBC will have a hard time pandering to him for years when people start to understand how lame he really is.


Arthur Cramer
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Joined: Nov 30 2010

kropotkin1951 wrote:

socialdem I think you are missing the fact that our current PM had not held a steady job for 5 years either when he became the Leader.

Trudeau is a flake and I think he will become the federal equivalent of the BC Liberal's Christy Clark.  All photo op and no substance.  There is too much time between next April and 2015 for him to pull it off because even the CBC will have a hard time pandering to him for years when people start to understand how lame he really is.

K:

I hope you are right. It'd make the campaign easier.


autoworker
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Joined: Dec 21 2008
David Young wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:
Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.

Except Trudeau doesn't have to win the confidence of the Liberal Party membership, he just has to convince Canadians who aren't members of any other federal political party to pay a fee and vote for him.

And who says he can even hold onto his own riding next time?  He received less support in 2011 than he did in 2008, and should support for the B.Q. crumble once the voter subsidy ends, there will be a lot of ex-Bloc voters who won't ever vote Liberal that could be looking to the NDP to send him packing.  Especially since as Liberal Party leader, he'll have to spend most of the election away from his home riding.

 

Should he win the leadership, Trudeau would have plenty of time to campaign across the country (something that he's been seen doing already). As for BQ supporters (they continue to exist), their party need only run a full slate of candidates to retain those core supporters who eschew federalism altogether, regardless of how it's dissembled.

Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

there is 7 list

so Martha H. Findlay enters liberal leadership.

 

Martha is sounds like Wildrose to me in cbc news today. Am i only thinking ?


nicky
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Joined: Aug 3 2005

I continue to note the contrast between media coverage of the Liberal and NDP leadership races. It seemed that weeks could pass without any major story on the NDP race which was a highly competitive contest to choose the leader of the Official Opposition. 

Yet we have almost daily major stories on the Liberals who are choosing the leader of a Third Party in a race which seems to be completely predetermined. 


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
The msm love affair with the libs continues.

Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

Hall Findlay was interviewed on P&P last night - she said she supports the pipelines, especially the Northern Gateway; and wants to eliminate 'supply management'.  She was quite awkward and/or uncomfortable under Evan Solomon's questioning.  She said financing her campaign will be no problem, but when asked where the financing is coming from, she could not give an answer. I don't think she will win the leadership. She came across as really right wing.

Hoping this goes through without an error message!


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

I hope they elect her liberal leader, it will be conservative and liberal are vote splitting and ndp going win. lool


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

Justin lost his cool the other day - loved this comment in the comment section which actually is correct (because I saw the same snootiness), "Arrogance that has never been earned."

Justin Trudeau attacks Sun News over vets questions

It's in absolutely in poor taste to send people to a link that ends up as a donation to the liberal party. If you are going to complain about misdirection concerning "robocalls" that sent people to the wrong voting stations than you can't basically pull similar stunts in campaigns - pot meet kettle, and Trudeau has earned nothing to show the disdain he did towards this reporter and by extension, vets, and potential voters.

Now classy was when Jack and Olivia went onto the Sun News TV station when it started during the 2011 election - they were upbeat and in fact, Olivia wore a sleeveless dress and took her jacket off in support of the female news person who was being lambasted by MSM and perhaps "high brows" for baring some arm.

Now that was classy - Trudeau not classy!

 

 


Boom Boom
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Joined: Dec 29 2004

But if she wins, and the Liberals somehow return to power, she will be another Harper. Frown


Brachina
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Joined: Feb 15 2012
There is no way she can compete for NDP votes, she's lose the Liberal left, but she's just popular enough amoung Tories to split the Tory vote. Not that I think she has a chance against Kardashianmania, she's just running so Trudeau can pretend there's a race going on, when really its still a corenation.

CanadaApple
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Joined: Dec 1 2011

theleftyinvestor wrote:
Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.

Mulcair actually faced some real challengers on his way to winning the leadership, and it took him four ballots to win. What are the odds of Justin not winning on the first ballot?


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

CanadaApple wrote:

theleftyinvestor wrote:
Ultimately I'll say what I did about Mulcair at the outset: He has a very good chance, but he has to prove himself. A coronation would have no legitimacy. If he wins the race, it'll have to be because he won the confidence of enough of the membership. And the race is his chance to demonstrate exactly what he's like in the spotlight.

Mulcair actually faced some real challengers on his way to winning the leadership, and it took him four ballots to win. What are the odds of Justin not winning on the first ballot?

Fair enough. But at least it's not a Paul Martin type of scenario.


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

Andrew Coyne: How to enjoy third-party status in a few easy steps

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/11/19/andrew-coyne-how-to-enjoy...


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

Oh boy...

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Justin+Trudeau+backs+Chinese+takeov...

Justin Trudeau backs Chinese takeover of Nexen as way to strengthen economic ties

OTTAWA — Justin Trudeau has come out strongly in favour of a Chinese state-owned energy company’s effort to purchase Calgary-based petroleum producer Nexen.

Trudeau made the comments in an opinion column published in some Postmedia newspapers and websites Tuesday, arguing that China’s objectives are not “sinister” and that Canada is in an enviable position for engaging the Asian power.

“China has a game plan,” the Liberal leadership contender wrote. “There is nothing inherently sinister about that. They have needs and the world has resources to meet those needs.

“We Canadians have more of those resources — and therefore more leverage — than any nation on Earth.”

[...]

How do you write Trudeaumania in Chinese? :P


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

The Liberals seem intent on cloning the NDP leadership race.  Joyce Murray, a recent candidate, is playing the role of Nathan Cullen.


felixr
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Joined: May 6 2012

mark_alfred wrote:

The Liberals seem intent on cloning the NDP leadership race.  Joyce Murray, a recent candidate, is playing the role of Nathan Cullen.

Lol.


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

She's really on the ball with the pot legalization and taxation idea though. Pandering for votes or not, I really feel this was a missed opportunity for the NDP candidates to take this stance in their leadership race.


Policywonk
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Joined: Feb 6 2005

theleftyinvestor wrote:

Oh boy...

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Justin+Trudeau+backs+Chinese+takeov...

Justin Trudeau backs Chinese takeover of Nexen as way to strengthen economic ties

OTTAWA — Justin Trudeau has come out strongly in favour of a Chinese state-owned energy company’s effort to purchase Calgary-based petroleum producer Nexen.

Trudeau made the comments in an opinion column published in some Postmedia newspapers and websites Tuesday, arguing that China’s objectives are not “sinister” and that Canada is in an enviable position for engaging the Asian power.

“China has a game plan,” the Liberal leadership contender wrote. “There is nothing inherently sinister about that. They have needs and the world has resources to meet those needs.

“We Canadians have more of those resources — and therefore more leverage — than any nation on Earth.”

[...]

How do you write Trudeaumania in Chinese? :P

No one with any environmental credentials would say what Trudeau said. He sounds like a damn Conservative.


mark_alfred
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Joined: Jan 3 2004

clambake wrote:

She's really on the ball with the pot legalization and taxation idea though. Pandering for votes or not, I really feel this was a missed opportunity for the NDP candidates to take this stance in their leadership race.

It's reflective of the fact that the Liberal leadership race is crowded with no-names, whereas the NDP leadership race had a greater proportion of people with actual governing experience running.  Hebert wrote on this here.


janfromthebruce
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Joined: Apr 24 2007

And reading Murray's present thoughts on 3 parties who not the Conservatives electing one candidate is like pre-election primary. So what happens is the candidate with the most bucks wins the nomination prior to the real deal - election - thus costing big bucks and deep pockets. She suggested it would be open to the constituents and not just members of each riding association.

I wonder if this is to get around the limit on campaign spending????


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

I like the co-operation idea... but lest Murray forget that it was a coalition of Liberals and Conservatives who first elected her as an MLA, where do Lib/Con swing voters fit into that picture?


Ippurigakko
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Joined: May 30 2011

justin trudeau said he support preferential voting or IRV/AV on cbc news? do u think NDP will gains in AV system???


theleftyinvestor
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Joined: Jun 6 2008

Regarding preferential voting: That was already covered by a Liberal policy convention - they chose IRV/AV as their preferred electoral reform.

A friend of mine did an analysis using second-choice polls with the 2011 election results, assuming an Australia-like IRV system:

http://nealjennings.wordpress.com/2011/05/05/elxn41-under-a-different-el...

For 2011, the results were:

BQ 1 seat (-3 from 4)
Conservative 144 seats (-23 from 167)
Green 1 seat (no change)
Liberal 46 seats (+12 from 34)
NDP 116 (+14 from 102)

And those results would have allowed the NDP to govern with the support of Liberals, if Liberals would have it. NDP and Liberals would have benefited nearly equally, both to the detriment of Conservatives and the Bloc. That's not to say the same analysis holds true for all elections, but it helps to counter the argument that Liberals would benefit unfairly to the detriment of the NDP under such a system. In ridings where the Liberals and Greens were eliminated, some stayed Conservative compared to FPTP results, and some went NDP (e.g. Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar).

Sadly the big sheet he posted of riding-by-riding calculations has since been taken down.


clambake
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Joined: Apr 21 2011

So Garneau is in. Hopefully he can somehow take this thing to avoid the Trudeau-hyped Liberal upswing.


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