Liberal MP defection pool
October 6, 2009 - 9:29am
The Cons are feeding the media with rumours that as many as three Liberal MPs are preparing to cross the floor.
The only name mentioned in media accounts is that of Ruby Dhalla, who of course denies that she is in talks.
Any other suggestions of MPs to watch?
Criteria might include
- right wing views or no firm views on anything (a fairly large group)
- not going anywhere in the Liberal Party (another fairly large group)
- able to (or at least think they are able to) win their seat again as a Conservative
- looking for a Senate appointment or other non-working position
Let the speculating begin.
Stockholm suggested Keith Martin.
Adma suggested McTeague.
Perhaps Ujal?
Pat Martin?
Peter Stoffer?
Awww, unionist that is just baiting. ;)
ROFTL, Unionist.
Look at the Grit female MPs after this editorial by Michael Valpy in today's G&M:
Women and Ignatieff: Where did it go wrong?
The Liberal Leader's appeal was taken for granted when he entered politics. But now his party is struggling to reconnect with women who say they find him stuffy, inauthentic and untrustworthy(...)
Why is it baiting? I had heard both of those Liberal MPs might defect to the NDP.
Ya, I read that this am too.
Perhaps Coderre is going to walk?
Where?
Walk around the Bloc?
Sorry to be a spoil sport.
But I bet there is nothing to this other than Conservatives keeping the negative news pot boiling under the Libs.
another consideration is who do the Tories actually want from the Liberals. i don't think they would touch Ruby Dhalla or Denis Coderre with a ten foot pole!
Maybe they could get someone from Newfoundland where the Tories currently have no representation and that person could be an instant cabinet minister?
I don't see any Liberals from Quebec switching and they have almost no one in the west left to switch except maybe the good DOCTOR PROFESSOR. That just leaves a few people in the fringe of the GTA with marginal seats. Someone look up who that would apply to.
Perhaps st8 to the Cons, who will make him their QC leader?
Now that he is out of that job. :D
How many MPs who cross the floor get re-elected?
Seems to me like people really don't like that. "I elected you as a X. My Party Affiliation was more important than my Candidate [The real political dynamic underlying political reaction to floor-crossers]. How dare you cross the floor to the Ys."
Garth Turner seemed to be an exception to the rule, mainly because he overcomes the party affiliation hurdle. For whatever reason constituents see Garth's candidacy as more important than the parties. I guess one could say the same for Scotty Brison. However these are both cases where the candidate crossed the floor to the Liberals.
The Liberals will run a candidate against any floor crosser. Best that they resign as MP, seek the Tory nomination, and run again in a by-election or wait for the general election which will come soon enough.
I don't think the people are expecting anything less these days.
Okay are we going to put money up?
I say Coderre, is a walker. ;)
I don't think anyone would take Coderre. He also seems pretty keen on replacing Iggy asap.
I also think Dhalla would be unwanted - perhaps the Greens would take her?
Keith Martin and Irwin Cotler are two I always thought were possibilities.
My money is on Scott Brison.
He was always a better fit with the Conservatives anyway.
Picking him up would signal that the Conservative war on gays is over, and make a real appeal for gay Conservatives.
They would probably have to give him a cabinet position to make it happen though.
I'm guessing 3 Ontario MPs from suburban seats looking to escape the wipeout of Ont. Libs foretold by the latest AR and Strategic Counsel polls
How many MPs who cross the floor get re-elected?
Garth Turner seemed to be an exception to the rule, mainly because he overcomes the party affiliation hurdle. For whatever reason constituents see Garth's candidacy as more important than the parties. I guess one could say the same for Scotty Brison. However these are both cases where the candidate crossed the floor to the Liberals.
FYI, Garth Turner was defeated after he switched to the Liberals! and Wajid Khan was defeated after he switched to the Tories. The only case i can think of where someone switched and then won was Belinda Stronach. Emerson quit rather than face certain defeat.
Garth was defeated? My bad ;)
Sometimes it's hard to keep track of all the Commons-critters!
Keith Martin and Scott Brison both won re-election after crossing over the Libs. One could argue in the case of Brison that the Liberals were closer to his PC roots than the new Conservative party which makes it odd that Brison supported the merger of the parties. With Martin, it' is even odder that he felt at home in both the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties but not in the merged, more moderate, Conservative Party.
Both of these characters ran for leadership of their old parties (and Brison also ran to be Liberal leader). Now they are both on the rumoured list to perform the rare "double-rat" and desert the sinking Liberal ship for the Conservatives.
Or Bob Rae could decamp to the Conservatives, thereby achieving the even rarer 3 party 'hat trick'.
I believe that move is called "the Churchill".
What about Tonks?
Tonks would be a great choice -- for the NDP! It would be Vancouver Kingsway redux! It would be almost impossible for Tonks (or anyone) to win York South Weston as a Con, so Tonks would probably want a Senate seat or some big fat goodie after he loses or abandons his seat a few months from now.
FYI, Garth Turner was defeated after he switched to the Liberals! and Wajid Khan was defeated after he switched to the Tories. The only case i can think of where someone switched and then won was Belinda Stronach. Emerson quit rather than face certain defeat.
What about a Liberal cabinet minister who jumped to the NDP and was elected and then re-elected? Don't forget him!
(Ok, he also crossed from Québec to Ottawa.)
I know you're just making (more) mischief, but there is no comparison.
Mulcair was elected to the House of Commons as a New Democrat and remains a New Democrat. There is no provincial NDP in Quebec.
I think we are talking about people who literally cross the floor of parliament in that they were elected for one party and crossed over and ran for another. I don't count situations like Mulcair going from the Quebec Liberals to the NDP nor do I count Rae or Dosanjh who ran federally as Liberals AFTER having switched parties.
Volpe?
I find this hard to believe-- sounds like Con BS to me.
When they actually have a Liberal fish on the line do you think they will say anything public before its on the bottom of the boat? Give the chance for the leader to run around and figure out who they are and talk to them? Sounds like mischief. Just more chatter to destabilize the leader.
As for PCs -- their party left them so I would not put them in the same category as people like Emerson.
I am very concerned about the anti-democratic dirty tricks coming from the Cons-- this is adding up. the fact that the media and the public doesn't see this as a disturbing trend makes it much worse.
I find this hard to believe-- sounds like Con BS to me.
When they actually have a Liberal fish on the line do you think they will say anything public before its on the bottom of the boat? Give the chance for the leader to run around and figure out who they are and talk to them? Sounds like mischief. Just more chatter to destabilize the leader.
As for PCs -- their party left them so I would not put them in the same category as people like Emerson.
I am very concerned about the anti-democratic dirty tricks coming from the Cons-- this is adding up. the fact that the media and the public doesn't see this as a disturbing trend makes it much worse.
I think there may be something to it. There's a tendency for Lib MPs to get nervous when their leader appears to be imploding.
Odd that the Toronto Star broke the story though. Haven't seen any verification in the other print media yet.
Yes, there is also the recent Raitt fund raising dirty tricks with the TO Port authority that is being investigated.
sounds like Con BS to me.
When they actually have a Liberal fish on the line do you think they will say anything public before its on the bottom of the boat?
Maurizio Bevilacqua
On TAT, I read this as "Liberal defecation pool" and really just clicked to see if anyone else had. Carry on.
I know you're just making (more) mischief, but there is no comparison.
Please comment on my posts, not on me. Thanks.
I understand that. I don't think we should underestimate the importance of Layton recruiting Mulcair. It's refreshing to have someone who chose the party rather than being born into it.
Here's my own list, by category:
Likely targets and/or possibly open to an approach (31)
Larry Bagnell (Yukon)
Keith Martin (Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca)
Sukh Dhaliwal (Newton--North Delta)
Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra)
John Cannis (Scarborough Centre)
Albina Guarnieri (Mississauga East--Cooksville)
Gurbax Singh Malhi (Bramalea--Gore--Malton)
John McKay (Scarborough--Guildwood)
Dan McTeague (Pickering--Scarborough East)
Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Joe Volpe (Eglinton--Lawrence)
Bryon Wilfert (Richmond Hill)
Alan Tonks (York South--Weston)
Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Etobicoke Centre)
Navdeep Bains (Mississauga--Brampton South)
Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan)
Anthony Rota (Nipissing--Timiskaming)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Bernard Patry (Pierrefonds--Dollard)
Marc Garneau (Westmount--Ville-Marie)
Jean-Claude D'Amours (Madawaska--Restigouche)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)
Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton--Canso)
Mark Eyking (Sydney--Victoria)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan)
Shawn Murphy (Charlottetown)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Scott Andrews (Avalon)
Todd Russell (Labrador)
Scott Simms (Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor)
Unlikely to be approached or to say yes if they were approached (24)
Anita Neville (Winnipeg South Centre)
Mauril Bélanger (Ottawa--Vanier)
Jim Karygiannis (Scarborough--Agincourt)
Derek Lee Scarborough--Rouge River
Michelle Simson (Scarborough Southwest)
John McCallum (Markham--Unionville)
Mark Holland (Ajax--Pickering)
Ruby Dhalla (Brampton--Springdale)
Yasmin Ratansi (Don Valley East)
Bonnie Crombie (Mississauga--Streetsville)
Frank Valeriote (Guelph)
Kirsty Duncan (Etobicoke North)
Rob Oliphant (Don Valley West)
Raymonde Folco (Laval--Les Îles)
Marcel Proulx (Hull--Aylmer)
Irwin Cotler (Mount Royal)
Massimo Pacetti (Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel)
Pablo Rodriguez (Honoré-Mercier)
Francis Scarpaleggia (Lac-Saint-Louis)
Lise Zarac (LaSalle--Émard)
Alexandra Mendès (Brossard--La Prairie)
Scott Brison (Kings--Hants)
Siobhan Coady (St. John's South--Mount Pearl)
Judy Foote (Random--Burin--St. George's)
No way (23)
Hedy Fry (Vancouver Centre)
Ujjal Dosanjh (Vancouver South)
Ralph Goodale (Wascana)
Peter Milliken (Kingston and the Islands)
Maria Minna (Beaches--East York)
Carolyn Bennett (St. Paul's)
Judy Sgro (York West)
Mario Silva (Davenport)
Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale)
David McGuinty (Ottawa South)
Ken Dryden (York Centre)
Glen Pearson (London North Centre)
Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke--Lakeshore)
Bob Rae (Toronto Centre)
Gerard Kennedy (Parkdale--High Park)
Denis Coderre (Bourassa)
Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville)
Marlene Jennings (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine)
Justin Trudeau (Papineau)
Dominic Leblanc (Beauséjour)
Wayne Easter (Malpeque)
Geoff Regan (Halifax West)
Michael Savage (Dartmouth--Cole Harbour)
Is that not a bit of a bit of an overstatement, unionist?
As for it to be a valid contention, one would have to indicate that Mulcair was one of the only NDP MP's, not born into the party. And that is hardly the case.
Is that not a bit of a bit of an overstatement, unionist?
As for it to be a valid contention, one would have to indicate that Mulcair was one of the only NDP MP's, not born into the party. And that is hardly the case.
Yes, remind, it was an overstatement, but I did it to make a point. Mulcair was a highly respected Liberal politician - a minister in cabinet - very popular. In a cabinet shuffle, Charest removed his sustainable development portfolio and offered him the ministry of intergovernmental affairs instead - not a paltry job in Québec, as you can imagine when thinking of relations with Ottawa. Mulcair refused, because of his fundamental disagreement on how Charest was dealing with the environment. He took a break to reflect on other issues as well, and then accepted Layton's invitation to take on a new role.
What I meant was this: Whatever one thinks of Mulcair (and there's much in his views that I disagreed with then and now), his was a courageous and principled choice. He went from a position of power and influence to join a federal party that had never elected anyone in a general election in Québec. I credit Jack Layton with winning him to this bold stand, and I admire them both for it.
Let me sum it up. Tom Mulcair is not a "my party, right or wrong, and when I join my next party, it will be that party, right or wrong" type of person. He makes choices based on his principles and conscience. The NDP would do well to find more like him. They could even consider a two-for-one trade for a few that are disgracing their caucus right now.
Thank you for clarifying that.
However, I have to disagree with your contention that the caucus is not predominently principled and following their conscience, as according to your own contentions, Mulcair would not put up with it, if they were not, and would walk
Keith Martin and Scott Brison both won re-election after crossing over the Libs. One could argue in the case of Brison that the Liberals were closer to his PC roots than the new Conservative party which makes it odd that Brison supported the merger of the parties. With Martin, it' is even odder that he felt at home in both the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties but not in the merged, more moderate, Conservative Party.
Both of these characters ran for leadership of their old parties (and Brison also ran to be Liberal leader). Now they are both on the rumoured list to perform the rare "double-rat" and desert the sinking Liberal ship for the Conservatives.
No and no. Remeber the last time Martin sat as an independant & didn't join the Liberal caucus until he was elected as one. With Brison, there's too much bad blood between him & Peter McKay.
Scott,
I agree with your "Unlikely to be approached or to say yes if they were approached" list and your "No way" list.
Here's who I think is most likely out of the rest:
John McKay (Scarborough--Guildwood)
John Cannis (Scarborough Centre)
Gurbax Singh Malhi (Bramalea--Gore--Malton)
Alan Tonks (York South--Weston)
The rest are just too steeped in the party to want to leave, and most would properly belong in either of the above two lists in my opinion.
As for Keith Martin, you might think he fits them philosophically (except on marijuana, aid to Africa, and a few other issues), but I think it's just too hard to cross twice. McTeague is anti-choice, but he's in the mainstream of that party.
I would put both Joyce Murray and Marc Garneau in the "no way" category.
I'd take odds on Pearson.
Given the political unrest in the recent past, I'd suggest that right now would be the best time for floorcrossers. Easier to justify when the overall scene is so muddled.
"Around the Bloc" Unionist.
That's a sweet line, dude.
It's interesting to note that there is an almost identical thread going on over at the Blogging Tories board. I haven't read through the whole thing yet, but stopped to chuckle at the comment that says they wouldn't want Ruby Dhalla, but were sure we'd take her in a second (not bloody likely).
Also interesting is that they wouldn't mind Paul Szabo or Dan McTeague, and would take Keith Martin back. In fact they quite like Szabo, which is interesting given his role in chairing the Mulroney committee. I think I read that he was a go for a fall election, but would reconsider his future in terms of running again if the election were put off longer than that.
i'd say we could cut it to:
Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)
I liked the post that speculated that The Star (which, in their unique lingo, is known as "Pravda") published the article in order to make the Conservatives "seem more sinister".
Pravda, changed their online look, and now it's looks like a online tabloid, along with it's pravda personality.
i'd say we could cut it to:
Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)
The two New Brunswick MPs (Murphy and D'Amours) are possibilities.
Not Kania though: big Liberal party insider. I'd highly doubt him.
I doubt we would see three floor crossers.
However, if there is any west of Ontario, the only one I could possibly see crossing is Sukh Dhaliwal as his riding is easily within striking distance for the Conservatives. (He's surrounded by three tories, and is a conservative Liberal to begin with.)
If there is any in Ontario, I would look at the suburbs.
Yeah, just to be a wise guy, I'll guess that the three most likely floor crossers are Michael Ignatieff, Bob Rae, and Justin Trudeau
Good list Scott, but Larry of the Yukon isn't going anywhere.
His wife would never speak to him again.
Volpe?
Enticeing Volpe away from the Liberals would be as easy as taking donations from a baby.
But, as much as the Conservatives could use some comic relief, they have a blind spot that way.
Why would the Conservatives want any Liberal at this point, given the polling numbers just released?
The only scenario I could see them accepting any Liberal defectors is right after an election, a.k.a. 'An Emerson', espcially if they are only 1 or 2 seats short of a majority, but still shut out of the urban seats of Montreal/Toronto/Vancouver.
I could see Tonks jumping from the Liberals to the Conservatives in a heartbeat for a cabinet post in that situation.
Because the pain it would cause the Liberals would over-ride everything.
I'd take odds on Pearson.
Glen Pearson used to be my MP, and I seriously doubt he would ever cross the floor to become a Conservative... ideologically he fits in with the social progressive wing of the Liberal party.
Harper once again is making fools of the opposition. And scoring political points to boot. There will probably be no floor-crossings, but the NDP needs to keep working on Trudeau, as his party is dying beneath him.
I want Sascha not Justin though!
It's cross the floor time for the two old line parties. Abandon ship!
Here's my own list, by category:
Likely targets and/or possibly open to an approach (31)
Larry Bagnell (Yukon)
Keith Martin (Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca)
Sukh Dhaliwal (Newton--North Delta)
Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra)
John Cannis (Scarborough Centre)
Albina Guarnieri (Mississauga East--Cooksville)
Gurbax Singh Malhi (Bramalea--Gore--Malton)
John McKay (Scarborough--Guildwood)
Dan McTeague (Pickering--Scarborough East)
Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Joe Volpe (Eglinton--Lawrence)
Bryon Wilfert (Richmond Hill)
Alan Tonks (York South--Weston)
Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Etobicoke Centre)
Navdeep Bains (Mississauga--Brampton South)
Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan)
Anthony Rota (Nipissing--Timiskaming)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Bernard Patry (Pierrefonds--Dollard)
Marc Garneau (Westmount--Ville-Marie)
Jean-Claude D'Amours (Madawaska--Restigouche)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)
Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton--Canso)
Mark Eyking (Sydney--Victoria)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan)
Shawn Murphy (Charlottetown)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Scott Andrews (Avalon)
Todd Russell (Labrador)
Scott Simms (Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor)
Derek Lee Scarborough--Rouge River
Raymonde Folco (Laval--Les Îles)
Francis Scarpaleggia (Lac-Saint-Louis)
I added Lee, Folco and Scarpaleggia to your "likely targets" list, Scott. Lee strikes me as very much a right-wing Blue Grit and the Toronto suburbs are standing to trend Conservative, from what I can tell. Folco is a classic hand-wringer and was publicly dissing Dion early on, t's a long-shot but she might bite if Iggy continues to tank in Quebec and the right offer was made. Scarpaleggia was rumoured to be crossing the floor right after the 2008 election, IIRC.
As for the rest of your list:
- Bagnell will never do it as others have said
- Martin might switch back once Harper leaves - the two absolutely despise each other from what I hear, so I don't see Keith crossing over as long as Harper is there. With a Charest or another leader, anything is possible.
- Joyce Murray will never do it - hard core Dion supporter and social liberal, big federal Lib connections through her husband.
- Don't know Dhaliwal that well, but don't see it happening.
- McKay and Szabo are definite possibilities, both very right-wing. Don't think McTeague would go there.
- Wilfert is like Murray, will never do it.
- Tonks might very well switch, but only if the polls show he will win his riding as a Conservative and he gets a plum Cabinet post.
- Bevalicqua is an interesting case, he might switch as a matter of principle, again, a very right-wing Lib but not as sleazy as many of the others.
- Borys, Garneau and Bains will never do it - all hard-core Libs.
- Don't think any of the Atlantic Canadians MPs will do it.
- Cotler might switch over Israel, but only if he is definitely not running again- Mount-Royal will go Liberal as long as the sun rises in the East!
I definitely don't see that happening - with Iggy taking an identical stance to Harper on Israel, why would he switch now? Besides on other issues he's really a classic big-"L" Liberal who wouldn't really fit in the Tory caucus.
Harper once again is making fools of the opposition. And scoring political points to boot.
Harper will go down as the sleaziest, most partisan PM in Canadian history. He's brought Republican gutter politics up north. Rush Limbaugh would be proud.
Harper's only legacy as PM will be the advent of constant year-round campaigning. The last 4 years has felt like one never-ending election where the Cons have campaigned largely unopposed. How many negative ads have the CONS used outside of election period during the last 4 years? How many times has he thundered against the "socialists" and the "seperatists" outside of election periods. His only accomplishment as PM has been his succesful demonization of the opposition. Maybe he'll get a job with FOX News when he retires.
Canadians are sick of elections because we have been subjected to a never-ending 4 year long campaign by the CONS.
Harper will go down as Canada's worst PM. No accomplishments, just petty partisanship.
Keith Martin and Scott Brison both won re-election after crossing over the Libs. One could argue in the case of Brison that the Liberals were closer to his PC roots than the new Conservative party which makes it odd that Brison supported the merger of the parties. With Martin, it' is even odder that he felt at home in both the Reform and Canadian Alliance parties but not in the merged, more moderate, Conservative Party.
Both of these characters ran for leadership of their old parties (and Brison also ran to be Liberal leader). Now they are both on the rumoured list to perform the rare "double-rat" and desert the sinking Liberal ship for the Conservatives.
I believe that move is called "the Churchill".
"Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain amount of ingenuity to re-rat."
- Sir Winston Spencer Churchill, upon rejoining the Conservatives in 1925.
(He had been elected as a Tory in 1900, then crossed the floor to the Liberals in 1904 where he had a distinguished ministerial career as President of the Board of Trade, First Lord of the Admiralty, Home Secretary, Secretary of State for War and Colonial Secretary. After rejoining the Tories, he went on to serve as Baldwin's Chancellor and then spent ten years in the political wilderness before becoming First Lord of the Admiralty in 1939 and finally Prime Minister in 1940.)
I added Lee, Folco and Scarpaleggia to your "likely targets" list, Scott. Lee strikes me as very much a right-wing Blue Grit and the Toronto suburbs are standing to trend Conservative, from what I can tell. Folco is a classic hand-wringer and was publicly dissing Dion early on, t's a long-shot but she might bite if Iggy continues to tank in Quebec and the right offer was made. Scarpaleggia was rumoured to be crossing the floor right after the 2008 election, IIRC.
Iggy was just in Laval fundraising for Raymonde Folco last week (last-minute trip after Coderre resigned to show his face in Quebec). She was one of the ones rumoured to be being pushed out by Coderre, but Iggy told her that he would back her if she wanted to run again. Her former aide ran for the Conservatives against her last time. I honestly doubt they'd want her, and if she did want to cross after he came to her fundraiser, it would be a real slap in the face to her leader.
Scarpaleggia? Meh, can't see it happening.
Or Bob Rae could decamp to the Conservatives, thereby achieving the even rarer 3 party 'hat trick'.
And one has to admit, he has been moving in that direction since the 1970s.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/706579--pmo-denies-aide-s-cla...
OTTAWA-The Prime Minister's Office sought Tuesday to distance itself from reports coming from Immigration Minister Jason Kenney's office about possible defections of Liberal MPs to the Conservatives.
Dimitri Soudas, a PMO spokesperson, said there was no truth to claims made to the Star by Kenney's communications director, Alykhan Velshi, about three Liberal MPs interested in crossing the floor to the Conservatives.
Outside the main entrance to the Parliament buildings, Soudas called out to a Star reporter that Velshi's information was "bullshit."
He then in a conversation with the reporter could not explain why the communications director to the immigration minister would tell the Star about the potential floor-crossers if they didn't exist.
Nor could Soudas explain why he was "outing" Velshi on Tuesday afternoon as the source of the tip to the Star. Soudas went on to explain that only the PMO knows certain information and Velshi wouldn't have had the kind of facts the Star was seeking.
Interesting and uncharacteristic public spat among Conservatives at the top of the pile. But Velshi must be in deep do-do.
And so much for Delacourt saying she'll out the "Star's source" if it turns out they were lying. Everyone on the Hill would know the source.
Wow, interesting unfoldments.
Kenney and Harper are pretty tight, I wonder what is being cooked up?
Or perhaps they had a spat, and this is the public face of it?! :D
How many MPs who cross the floor get re-elected?
Garth Turner seemed to be an exception to the rule, mainly because he overcomes the party affiliation hurdle. For whatever reason constituents see Garth's candidacy as more important than the parties. I guess one could say the same for Scotty Brison. However these are both cases where the candidate crossed the floor to the Liberals.
FYI, Garth Turner was defeated after he switched to the Liberals! and Wajid Khan was defeated after he switched to the Tories. The only case i can think of where someone switched and then won was Belinda Stronach. Emerson quit rather than face certain defeat.
Paul Hellyer crossed over from the Liberals to the Tories in '71 or so and was re-elected as a Tory in '72.
Of course, then the space aliens got him.
Ya, I knew they inhabitated the ranks of the Conservatives, and thus extinguished any brain power they might have for humaness. :D
Here's my own list, by category:
Likely targets and/or possibly open to an approach (31)
Larry Bagnell (Yukon)
Keith Martin (Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca)
Sukh Dhaliwal (Newton--North Delta)
Joyce Murray (Vancouver Quadra)
John Cannis (Scarborough Centre)
Albina Guarnieri (Mississauga East--Cooksville)
Gurbax Singh Malhi (Bramalea--Gore--Malton)
John McKay (Scarborough--Guildwood)
Dan McTeague (Pickering--Scarborough East)
Paul Szabo (Mississauga South)
Joe Volpe (Eglinton--Lawrence)
Bryon Wilfert (Richmond Hill)
Alan Tonks (York South--Weston)
Borys Wrzesnewskyj (Etobicoke Centre)
Navdeep Bains (Mississauga--Brampton South)
Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan)
Anthony Rota (Nipissing--Timiskaming)
Andrew J. Kania (Brampton West)
Bernard Patry (Pierrefonds--Dollard)
Marc Garneau (Westmount--Ville-Marie)
Jean-Claude D'Amours (Madawaska--Restigouche)
Brian Murphy (Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe)
Rodger Cuzner (Cape Breton--Canso)
Mark Eyking (Sydney--Victoria)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan)
Shawn Murphy (Charlottetown)
Gerry Byrne (Humber--St. Barbe--Baie Verte)
Scott Andrews (Avalon)
Todd Russell (Labrador)
Scott Simms (Bonavista--Gander--Grand Falls--Windsor)
Unlikely to be approached or to say yes if they were approached (24)
Anita Neville (Winnipeg South Centre)
Mauril Bélanger (Ottawa--Vanier)
Jim Karygiannis (Scarborough--Agincourt)
Derek Lee Scarborough--Rouge River
Michelle Simson (Scarborough Southwest)
John McCallum (Markham--Unionville)
Mark Holland (Ajax--Pickering)
Ruby Dhalla (Brampton--Springdale)
Yasmin Ratansi (Don Valley East)
Bonnie Crombie (Mississauga--Streetsville)
Frank Valeriote (Guelph)
Kirsty Duncan (Etobicoke North)
Rob Oliphant (Don Valley West)
Raymonde Folco (Laval--Les Îles)
Marcel Proulx (Hull--Aylmer)
Irwin Cotler (Mount Royal)
Massimo Pacetti (Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel)
Pablo Rodriguez (Honoré-Mercier)
Francis Scarpaleggia (Lac-Saint-Louis)
Lise Zarac (LaSalle--Émard)
Alexandra Mendès (Brossard--La Prairie)
Scott Brison (Kings--Hants)
Siobhan Coady (St. John's South--Mount Pearl)
Judy Foote (Random--Burin--St. George's)
No way (23)
Hedy Fry (Vancouver Centre)
Ujjal Dosanjh (Vancouver South)
Ralph Goodale (Wascana)
Peter Milliken (Kingston and the Islands)
Maria Minna (Beaches--East York)
Carolyn Bennett (St. Paul's)
Judy Sgro (York West)
Mario Silva (Davenport)
Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale)
David McGuinty (Ottawa South)
Ken Dryden (York Centre)
Glen Pearson (London North Centre)
Michael Ignatieff (Etobicoke--Lakeshore)
Bob Rae (Toronto Centre)
Gerard Kennedy (Parkdale--High Park)
Denis Coderre (Bourassa)
Stéphane Dion (Saint-Laurent--Cartierville)
Marlene Jennings (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Lachine)
Justin Trudeau (Papineau)
Dominic Leblanc (Beauséjour)
Wayne Easter (Malpeque)
Geoff Regan (Halifax West)
Michael Savage (Dartmouth--Cole Harbour)
Scott, many of the people on your list of possibilities as "likely targets" are frankly absurd and silly. Many of those ridings (Scarborough, Westmount, Labrador, Vaughan etc) are safe Liberal seats and if a Liberal MP would cross the floor they would likely lose the seat in the next election to a new Liberal candidate so it would be career suicide.
This is providing some fun discussion no doubt, most most of it is quite silly.
This whole thing is stupid-- deranged.
Any right wing Liberal would not suffer through Dion to bail on Ignatief-- if they are to the right and did not walk on the carbon tax they aren't going now. Ignatief, if he were to lose people that would be to the NDP as some were left wing Liberals selected or encouraged by Dion. But the NDP would need to go above 20% for a couple poll cycles and the Liberals would need to go below 25% to get their attention.
this is the Cons playing games and people should be worried-- this is not only a crew we are idealogically terrified of-- there are no limits to the dishonest crap they will pull. They will make the Liberals look ethical before they are done-- and that is pretty damn hard to do.
The story is bs. If the current trend continues though, in a few months I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the NFLD MPs bail.
Why?
Well, as some people have probably heard by now, Marc Garneau has been chosen as Ignatieff's new "point-man" in Quebec (eg. the Quebec-Lieutenant post, but with fewer powers).
Guess Garneau can be scratched off that list above that Scott made - just as I predicted earlier today, Garneau isn't going anywhere.
Kory Teneycke put the final nail into the rumour.
http://www.nationalnewswatch.com/oped1.htm
Interesting tidbits in that Teneycke piece, and why is he writing it anyway, as he is out of politics?
Add to that the source's obvious partisan motivations, and alarm bells should have been ringing very loudly.....
...Think back to the dozens of "anonymous sources" that used to dish dirt on each other during the Chretien-Martin civil war.
Bolding mine.
He's no more out of the loop- let alone "out of politics"- than is Tom Flannagan. And while Flannagan might veer a bit from what he knows his old boss wants him to say and not say, you can safely assume Tenneycke is still essentially a mouthpiece, even if he says things slightly different from the current official mouthpiece.
Bottom line for the story: if there ever were any discussions with potential floor crossers, they will have scurried back to their holes thanks to Velshi [the aide], who will be lucky if they let him muck out stables in Siberia even if there were no talks with floor crossers for him to spoil.
That said, with all the bad news for the Liberals that espeically impacts a slew of MPs in Ontario, there's lots ot time for numbers of them to come sniffing irregardless of whether there really were 3 just now.
Ken, do you think it is a fight between Kenny and Harper?
As it is all too weird, and I just do not see it, as the Cons making mischief. Though perhaps it is.
That said, who knew it would be the Senators defecting? :D
I'm inclined to think it is what it appears to be: that Velshi was an idiot. And its hard to say whether the idiot blew the cover on something going on; or was too stupid to differentiate rumour and fact, and vain enough to want to show off around what he didn't know.
I don't know how to inferr from the behaviour of idiot flunkies whether or not there is a conflict between the bosses .
LOL, 'kay.
For what its worth, I don't beleive one bit Tenyecke and the PMO's statements that an aide on Velshi's level would know nothing of secret talks. He might not know, but equally likely is that if the were happening they were being done ny Kenney- the man with the contacts and who obviously has a talent for ingratiating himseld with people... a quality is short supply in the PMO.
Which is why I think one of the possibilities is that they are covering up for the idiot blurting the truth.
I first thought it was just mischief making. But if that was the idea, they were ridiculously inept at doing something that is really simple: unidentified "source" whispers to one prominent reporter who is getting the 'scoop'. But Velshi was blabbing out in the hallway were anyone could hear. [And those other witnesses is why the Star could not succeed at covering up for their gullability.]
If I could make a costless bet on whether what happened was covering up for the idiot blurting the truth, or the idiot getting it all wrong, I'd be somewhat inclined to think the former is more likely.
So no Liberals will be defecting in anyone's pool. What a relief(except for the ones who really really NEEDED to defect).
I heard prior to this CPC leak that .... this guy ......Frank Valeriote (Guelph)...... (who is in someones not likely category above), was considering to switch teams.
However, he may have got snubbed by the CPC in his own riding during some PHOTO OPPS with Harper at one of the largest employers in the riding.
So perhaps the talks ended before and then the CPC decided to make some hey with the news.
The CPC like to keep things HUSH, because they are supposed to be the party AGAINST floor crossing. However, recall the EMMERSON surprise and how the CPC kept it SUPER SECRET and away from Caucus.
My guess is deals fell through or went cold, and the CPC wanted to create grief. Or some CPC MPs spoke out of turn, and Harper wanted to keep the lines of communication open. THose lines are closed now.
well....the plot thickens, or is getting more transparent...