Liberals appear to be no match for the NDP in Burnaby South

54 posts / 0 new
Last post
kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

brookmere wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:
If the Liberals do not contend the riding then there is a good chance that the Conservatives will win because the federal NDP in Burnaby needs three way races with the Libs and Cons.

The numbers don't support this contention. In Burnaby-New West the NDP won quite handily in 2008 and 2011 in what were essentially two way races with the Conservatives. In Burnaby-Douglas the NDP won in 2011 in another two way race with the Conservatives. Also the same riding in 2008 with the Liberals in a poor third place.

You and I don't seem to read numbers the same way. In 2011 Julian got 49% of the vote and the Greens got 4%. The Conservatives got 35 and the Liberals got 10. Compared to the 2008 election that was an increase of 3% by Julian and a decrease of 3% by the Greens. The Liberals decreased 5% and the Conservatives increased 5%.  Peter Julian could not poll 50% despite being a respected incumbent.

If you look at the history from Burnaby Douglas the Conservatives and Liberals changed positions but strangely enough the total % of the vote for the two parties remained very similar. We won elections but never in two way races. the NDP got 43% in 1997 (Reform 2nd), 37% in 2000 (Alliance 2nd), 35% in 2004 (Liberals 2nd), 35% in 2006 (Liberals 2nd), 38% in 2008 (Cons 2nd) and 43% in 2011 (Cons 2nd). 

In 2008 in Burnaby Douglas when the Liberals dropped 13.6% the NDP only gained 2.4%.

In BC politics there have to be three way splits. This is where both Conservatives and Liberals vote for the same party provincially, specifically to keep the NDP out of power.

brookmere

kropotkin1951 wrote:
In BC politics there have to be three way splits. This is where both Conservatives and Liberals vote for the same party provincially, specifically to keep the NDP out of power.

The combined PC/Reform/Conservative/Fed Liberal vote in BC has always significantly exceeded the BC Liberal vote. Even in 2001, when the BC Liberals got a historic high of 58% of the vote, it was much less than the combined 84% the abovementioned federal parties got in 2000. Likewise the BC NDP has always done better than the federal NDP. Most recently the BC NDP got 40% in 2017 versus 26% for the federal NDP in 2015.

The obvious conclusion is that many BC voters support the Liberals federally and the NDP provincially. This may not align with the views of NDP partisans, but it's reality.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I actually fought in every federal campaign in Burnaby from '94 to 2011. During the minority government years we held regular election planning meetings in my office.  Given our teams poor understanding of the political dynamics I can't figure out how we won every election in that period. We were even stupid enough to not use the central campaign literature but again we got lucky and won anyway.

Pages