Liberals stuck in the polls
Why is anyone surprised by this?
Liberals stuck in the polls
The Liberal stall shows electors are paying attention to the performance of the other parties. In fact a new electoral map has emerged where the two old line parties together occupy less space than in the days of majority governments. Data from various polls over recent months confirm a trend that emerged with the accession of Harper to government. Together the Liberals and Conservatives find favour with about 65 per cent of Canadians. Another 35 per cent are looking either to the Bloc (about 10 per cent), or NDP/Green (25 per cent). Poll after poll has the Liberals at 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 or 35 per cent, mirrored by the Conservatives at 35, 34, 33, 32, 31 or 30 per cent. The NDP have been polling between 15 and 18 per cent, mirrored by the Greens at between 10 and seven per cent. Bloc support fluctuates around 10 per cent.
The Liberals, like the Conservatives, show a bedrock support of about 30 per cent, but also a ceiling no higher currently than 35 percent -- not enough to win a majority. Moving the ceiling means taking space from the Bloc, the NDP or the Greens.
To get back on their game, the Liberals need to gain ground in Quebec. It is the straightforward way for any party to become the default option for Canadians looking to change the government. But in much of Quebec outside the Montreal region, the Conservatives have more support than the Liberals, and in urban Quebec the Liberals have either the wrong polices (Afghanistan, tar sands), no policies (the economy), or too many enemies from the past for them to challenge the Bloc.
The same bad policies, no policies stance means the Liberals are not threatening the NDP/Green 25 per cent support level in urban areas outside Quebec. This "not Liberal" support has remained stable.
The Liberal stall can be seen as a structural shift in the party system. We see a two way split between a 65 per cent Liberal/Conservative electorate, and a 35 per cent NDP/Green/Bloc voting group. Such a scenario predicts minority governments to come.
The Liberals and Conservatives now form a grand coalition. Neither partner is happy with living with the other. However, since the stable minority is based on similar policy stances on the important issues of the war, the economy and the environment, it can be expected to last until after the 2010 Winter Olympics.
Where is Ignatieff anyway? This has become an issue when even Liberal supporters like Adam have to write about it.
Maybe he really does dislike Canada, and wants to spend as little time here as possible.
Hit the roadhttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/radwanski/hit-the-road/article12261...
I don't get the article on which the opening post is based.
Why would we assume that it is easier to get support from the Green/BQ/NDP than from the Liberals or Cons.
Either one of those parties can get a majority by damaging severely enough the other. Harper came close enough last time to see that it could be done.
With 5 parties in the mix in some respects it is harder, and it would be impossible in a proportional system but in a FPTP system it remains possible. A stronger NDP or Greens could have reduced the number of votes needed to win seats and if the vote is flatand wide it could help one of the bigger parties.
The dynamic we are seeing is the existance of a major party in one reason that does not stand for election elsewhere -- the BQ. This definitely reduces the chance of a majority as the BQ can translate to seats efficiently as it is a dominant party in Quebec, a large province. If some other party were around with the same national vote the BQ has spread across the country rather than the BQ, we would like have a majority government now. In that situation a 35% vote would regularly deliver majorities when in a 3 party system it takes 40% most of the time.
As far as bedrock and ceiling-- I think this has to do with the party's reach not how many other parties there are. The Cons have a lower ceiling because they moved to the right after Mulroney (yeah name changes notwithstanding), and because Harper is truly unlikeable. If he were a nicer more human-appearing person that alone might do it-- as scary as that seems. The Cons topped out in the polls into the 40s only last January.
The Liberals are also nowhere near their top-- just because they have stagnated does not mean a structural ceiling. The NDP is likely nowhere near its ceiling either. I would argue that the Liberals as a party that appeals to the centre (delivery is another point) likely has a very high ceiling but also more difficulty in getting there than other parties with more defined constituencies.
This is of course based on my understanding of waht is theoretically the highest they can get-- otherwise, we are only mucking about with the obvious-- where we are now.
Sssstuck in the muuud. Oh dear.
Put another way-- we have a deadlock. There is no party with a leader able to inspire and draw numbers to their cause-- even if the NDP does have such a leader the party remains too weak to be a pretender to a majority mantle.
Of course none of this is news or particularly interesting so we have to couch this in terms of some new reality of ceilings etc.
If the Greens are in part a protest vote parked due to the ickiness of both the Cons and the Liberals who are at record levels in being uninspiring -- at the same time -- then their return to either party would put that party over the top. Of course that is not particularly worthy of creating an article.
I think DC was scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for something to write about. Problem is ther eis nothing new or interesting to say about a political deadlock created by two uninspiring out of touch parties. Not that I want either of them to get their shit together, but there is nothign structural about the Liberals problems at least.
The Cons have indeed moved enough to the right that they ahve painted themselves into a corner -- but a new leader could change that almost overnight-- a shift towards the centre, away from pettiness and nasty politics and away from the social conservative fringe-- would put that party in contention just as Mulroney was. The Liberals have to have a decent leader from the centre as well. They need to be both different from the Cons in policy and accessible to Con voters. Nothing is new here except their inability to do waht they used to do.
For the NDP there is a structural change but it is incomplete. The party is no longer a patchwork regional party. It now has significant support from all regions and a moderate rise in support would put it into government territory. Years ago the party actually was regionally more popular than it is today but it was too limited regionally to make it over the top. The question is can the NDP take this thin and wide support and crank it up in one or more areas to at least regional majority position-- as the NDP used to have federally. There is no part of the country where the NDP has over a third in support.
"There is no part of the country where the NDP has over a third in support."
There is also no part of the country where the Liberals had over a third support in the last election.
"There is no part of the country where the NDP has over a third in support."
There is also no part of the country where the Liberals had over a third support in the last election.
If you don't count Ontario or the Atlantic region
The Liberals got just barely one third in Ontario last election and I don't they they got much over a third across Atlantic Canada either.
Apparently Iggy is too busy disparaging his staffers, to boost his public profile, and actually action anything.
There is no part of the country where the NDP has over a third in support.
Except the latest Angus Reid poll has the NDP at 35% in the Atlantic region.
The Liberals got just barely one third in Ontario last election and I don't they they got much over a third across Atlantic Canada either.
Well, Newfoundland and PEI, of course...
Why is anyone surprised by this?
Liberals stuck in the polls
The Liberal stall shows electors are paying attention to the performance of the other parties. In fact a new electoral map has emerged where the two old line parties together occupy less space than in the days of majority governments. Data from various polls over recent months confirm a trend that emerged with the accession of Harper to government. Together the Liberals and Conservatives find favour with about 65 per cent of Canadians. Another 35 per cent are looking either to the Bloc (about 10 per cent), or NDP/Green (25 per cent). Poll after poll has the Liberals at 30, 31, 32, 33, 34 or 35 per cent, mirrored by the Conservatives at 35, 34, 33, 32, 31 or 30 per cent. The NDP have been polling between 15 and 18 per cent, mirrored by the Greens at between 10 and seven per cent. Bloc support fluctuates around 10 per cent.
The Liberals, like the Conservatives, show a bedrock support of about 30 per cent, but also a ceiling no higher currently than 35 percent -- not enough to win a majority. Moving the ceiling means taking space from the Bloc, the NDP or the Greens.
To get back on their game, the Liberals need to gain ground in Quebec. It is the straightforward way for any party to become the default option for Canadians looking to change the government. But in much of Quebec outside the Montreal region, the Conservatives have more support than the Liberals, and in urban Quebec the Liberals have either the wrong polices (Afghanistan, tar sands), no policies (the economy), or too many enemies from the past for them to challenge the Bloc.
The same bad policies, no policies stance means the Liberals are not threatening the NDP/Green 25 per cent support level in urban areas outside Quebec. This "not Liberal" support has remained stable.
The Liberal stall can be seen as a structural shift in the party system. We see a two way split between a 65 per cent Liberal/Conservative electorate, and a 35 per cent NDP/Green/Bloc voting group. Such a scenario predicts minority governments to come.
The Liberals and Conservatives now form a grand coalition. Neither partner is happy with living with the other. However, since the stable minority is based on similar policy stances on the important issues of the war, the economy and the environment, it can be expected to last until after the 2010 Winter Olympics.
http://rabble.ca/columnists/2009/07/liberals-stuck-polls
The basic point of the article is certainly true - the parties are in a stalemate and the Liberals have not yet done enough to move ahead of the Conservatives and really build up any long-term momentum, but there are some generalizations in the article that don't have much support.
For example, it states above that the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals in much of Quebec outside Montreal. According to a number of polls done in Quebec this year, the Liberals are now ahead of the Conservatives outside of Montreal and in Francophone Quebec. I'm not sure where the author is getting that information.
You keep saying polls are saying something, but you never ever slap up the polls which you are refering to. Not that whether the Liberals outside of Montreal are ahead of the Cons, or not, means anything, as they are fighting for 2nd place, anyway.
thread drift/ the thread title amakes me wonder if we need to be launching some polar rescue missions./ end thread drift