Looking like a strong Liberal minority (thank god!). Time to ask. How did PM Trudeau manage this?

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Rob8305
Looking like a strong Liberal minority (thank god!). Time to ask. How did PM Trudeau manage this?

The latest MainStreet and Nanos tracking polls, (actually pretty much every poll since yesterday) is looking good for my Liberals.  I don't want to jinx or curse anything, but if P.M. Trudeau actually does lead the Liberal party to a stable minority (or even small majority?) on Monday night, I was wondering how you think he managed this? I am recalling back to a Susan Delacourt tweet back at the height of the SNC-Lavalin affair that she had never seen a government collapse in real time like this (that was the day of the Jane Phillipot resignation).  At one point, the Conservatives were in strong majority government territory.  What happened to change this? I hypothesize that it was a mix of:

1. The Raptors winning the NBA championship kind of led to a feel-good patriotic moment that has always been good for incumbent governments (think back to Clinton and Reagan receiving bounces for holding the Olympics in the USA in their re-elect years).  Look at the polls on Wikipedia and it shows the Liberals starting their recovery after the championship run, suprisingly enough.

2. Doug Ford's massive unpopularity in Ontario is the biggest factor, probably.

3. Strong GDP and job growth is a close 2nd to Doug Ford's massive unpopularity, isn't it?

4. Jagmeet's stunning rise in the polls may be a missing ingredient.  Perhaps rather than the dreaded left-vote spit, he's actually taking votes away from Red Tories who are leary of Scheer but can't stomach a vote for Trudeau?  If that's the case, we can thank the NDP for saving Canada this time the way that the BQ ironically did in 2008 by preventing Harper from winning a majority back then.

5. It could simply be that in a 3-party system, we'd be looking at a Scheer majority this weekend.  Perhaps, we are lucky that the anti-Liberal vote consolidated in 5 different directions rather than around Scheer as it may have done a decade or so ago.  I guess if you factor in the BQ, Green, PPC, and solid NDP support near 20% in the polls, that there's just not enough of the pie left for Scheer to sneak in on based on anti-Liberal resentment alone.

However, I still feel like I'm missing something in the Liberal recovery.  I mean the SNC-Lavalin scandal was one of the biggest in Canadian history (or perhaps it wasn't and the media obsession with it for months simply led voters to assume it was?).  How did near-certain defeat turn into probably at least a 2004-size Liberal minority on Monday night?  Scheer didn't run a stellar camapaign but arguably Trudeau's blackface scandal was 10x calamatious as anything Scheer did.  So, it's quite remarkable.  So, I'll ask again. How did the Liberals rise from the ashes of SNC-Lavalin to be where they are now?

 

knownothing knownothing's picture

Why are you so thrilled about a Liberal govt? Trudeau managed this because the Liberal political machine is incredibly influential and powerful. There is a reason why the Liberals have governed Canada for 2/3rds of its history. 

We should all be very careful that they don't end up winning a surprise majority on Monday. Shame on anybody for voting Liberal.

cco

Limited attention spans. Remember any of the scandals that were supposed to be fatal to Harper's government? In-and-out, the Senate...for lots of people, if it happened more than a month ago, it's downgraded to "Didn't something happen with that guy once?".

josh

The affair wasn't that damaging, and may actually have helped in Quebec.  Ford and the economy certainly helped in Ontario.  But the better question to ask is why he couldn't win a majority.  

Rob8305

knownothing wrote:

Why are you so thrilled about a Liberal govt? Trudeau managed this because the Liberal political machine is incredibly influential and powerful. There is a reason why the Liberals have governed Canada for 2/3rds of its history. 

We should all be very careful that they don't end up winning a surprise majority on Monday. Shame on anybody for voting Liberal.

I am thrilled for one reason and one reason alone:  Andrew Scheer terrifies me like few politicans ever have in Canadian history.  Thank god it looks like he's not getting anywhere near 24 Sussex.

If the NDP had surged into first place after the debates, I'd be equally thrilled.  All about stopping that American wannabe to me.

Josh,

They couldn't win a majority for the same reason they lost government the last time (Martin-Chretien feud with Sponsorship mixed in).  It's always the same story with these guys, unfortunately.  Internal Liberal infighting, as SNC-Lavalin was, has been their downfall forever!  Fortunately, JWR and JP didn't have the strength to fracture the party the way Martin/Chretien minions did.

knownothing knownothing's picture

Rob8305 wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Why are you so thrilled about a Liberal govt? Trudeau managed this because the Liberal political machine is incredibly influential and powerful. There is a reason why the Liberals have governed Canada for 2/3rds of its history. 

We should all be very careful that they don't end up winning a surprise majority on Monday. Shame on anybody for voting Liberal.

I am thrilled for one reason and one reason alone:  Andrew Scheer terrifies me like few politicans ever have in Canadian history.  Thank god it looks like he's not getting anywhere near 24 Sussex.

If the NDP had surged into first place after the debates, I'd be equally thrilled.  All about stopping that American wannabe to me.

I think the similiarities between Trudeau and Scheer far outweigh the differences.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If anybody has "managed" anything-and who knows if there will be some bizarre late-campaign opinion trend the polls aren't picking up as there was in 2011 when Harper got a majority virtually no one thought he'd get-it's because Andrew Scheer has run a singularly ineffective campaign for his party.    At this point, Scheer is the coming across as the most ineffective Conservative leader since Kim Campbell-his party is only holding is basic vote share at the moment because Bernier has been even more ineffective at creating an alternative to the Cons' right.

But remember, a lot can shift at the end.    At this stage in a campaign, there are any number of events which could cause a late swing to the Cons OR to the NDP.  It's a disaster for Scheer that that Cons are in FOURTH place in Quebec, though-and if right-wingers in Quebec realize that that's the case, it could cause a very late swing to the PP that might give Bernie his riding and maybe a couple more.

On the current vote breaks, Scheer would be premier of Alberta and that's pretty much it.

NDPP

Election 2019: The Narcissism of Minor Party Differences

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2019/10/17/election-2019-th...

"Loves attention, lacks curiosity. That unnervingly resembles Justin Trudeau - in the narcissism. Both adore dress-up: Singh for GQ, Justin - well, you know...In his actual practice, I see a cheerful hypocrisy, which makes him much like a Liberal, even a Trudeau Liberal. Which Trudeau? Take your pick..."

Salutin nails it. Two superficial stupidos. Bravo

 

brookmere

IMHO most of the people who voted Liberal last time got most of what they wanted, at least in comparison to what Harper did, what Ford is doing, or what Scheer would do. And they remember what happened in 2011. So they stick with the Liberals. They may be unhappy with SNC, but they are not going to punish themselves for it.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

NDPP wrote:

Election 2019: The Narcissism of Minor Party Differences

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2019/10/17/election-2019-th...

"Loves attention, lacks curiosity. That unnervingly resembles Justin Trudeau - in the narcissism. Both adore dress-up: Singh for GQ, Justin - well, you know...In his actual practice, I see a cheerful hypocrisy, which makes him much like a Liberal, even a Trudeau Liberal. Which Trudeau? Take your pick..."

Salutin nails it. Two superficial stupidos. Bravo

 

An old white guy who can't tell the difference between lived experience and a silver spoon. I only skimmed after he told me Trudeau gave us a Charter with a Not Withstanding Clause when I know Trudeau opposed it but agreed to it in the end. I have watched two or three hours of Singh answering questions from editorial boards and other and without note he understand his platform and can explain and defend it. Rick Salutin is a Liberal hack so it is not unexpected on the eve of an election where the NDP might take a bite or two out of Justin's lunch that he would dig out his hatchet.

Singh is obviously on the upswing and the internal polls of the Liberals must show it.

KarlL

I think it has flattened out in recent days (and the last few polls seem to show that) but Jagmeet Singh had performed well.  The BC and a few surprise Saskatchewan results could take the NDP into the upper 40s but I suspect it will be somewhere between 40 and 45 seats. 

The absence of campaign funds was a limiter.  If Jagmeet could have deployed a full-scale advertising campaign in the wake of his superior performance in the English debate and solid performance in the French debate then I think it might have been different, as in more seats for the NDP but also more for the Conservatives because of the splits.

NorthReport

Bingo!

cco wrote:
Limited attention spans. Remember any of the scandals that were supposed to be fatal to Harper's government? In-and-out, the Senate...for lots of people, if it happened more than a month ago, it's downgraded to "Didn't something happen with that guy once?".

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Bingo!

cco wrote:
Limited attention spans. Remember any of the scandals that were supposed to be fatal to Harper's government? In-and-out, the Senate...for lots of people, if it happened more than a month ago, it's downgraded to "Didn't something happen with that guy once?".

Another big factor is that a sizeable portion of Canadians think of their political ideology as small-l liberal, and s0 will vote Liberal as long as they feel they can get up the next morning and go on with their lives without feeling like they've made a 'mistake' in how they voted. And because of their small-l liberal ideology, the bar for being able to vote Liberal without remorse is very low. Which results in people tending to forget Liberal scandals sooner than they would if the exact same scandal befell a party not named Liberal.

nicky

While I agree with what you all say about the course of the campaign, I think the title of this thread is offensive and should be changed.

in general I would like to see judgement laden titles changed to more neutral ones. Leave the cheerleading to the individual posts.

WRT to this one, it is hard to see why we should congratulate ourselves on re-electing this shallow unprincipled narcissist and his unethical government, however bad his principal opponent might be.

quizzical

KarlL wrote:

I think it has flattened out in recent days (and the last few polls seem to show that) but Jagmeet Singh had performed well.  The BC and a few surprise Saskatchewan results could take the NDP into the upper 40s but I suspect it will be somewhere between 40 and 45 seats. 

The absence of campaign funds was a limiter.  If Jagmeet could have deployed a full-scale advertising campaign in the wake of his superior performance in the English debate and solid performance in the French debate then I think it might have been different, as in more seats for the NDP but also more for the Conservatives because of the splits

full houses in Victoria, Vancouver and Penticton. 200 people had to be turned away in Penticton last night venue could only hold 500.

there were also 100s out in Port Alberni.

Alexandra Morton endorsed Chamberlain so we will see what impact that has on Nanaimo Ladysmith.

think all current NDP seats in BC will hold. whether the Schuswap will go orange from blue is a toss up. people there are pissed at Conservatives. are there enough there though?

Nathan's seat will go to Taylor hands down with something like 96% support. 

Whether Joan can pull it off is unknown.

 

Ciabatta2

Rob8305 wrote:

I am thrilled for one reason and one reason alone:  Andrew Scheer terrifies me like few politicans ever have in Canadian history.  Thank god it looks like he's not getting anywhere near 24 Sussex.

What is it about Scheer specifically that terrifies you more than Stephen Harper, or Stockwell Day, or Preston Manning? Or Chretien/Martin, for that matter.

brookmere

quizzical wrote:
think all current NDP seats in BC will hold. whether the Schuswap will go orange from blue is a toss up. people there are pissed at Conservatives. are there enough there though?

If you mean North Okanagan-Shuswap, the Cons won comfortably in 2015 and the NDP was 10,000 votes back in 3rd place.  Of the Interior NDP seats Kootenay-Columbia is iffy with only an 81 vote margin over the Cons in 2015.

Sean in Ottawa

To those who say that there is no difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives in the context of a result, I think this is wrong.

The greatest difference is that the Conservatives WILL NOT make ANY concession to the NDP and will work with the BQ or Liberals. The Liberals may work with the Conservatives but they could possibly work with the NDP.

The difference in result is the fact that the NDP could have some influence with the Liberals and can expect none with the Conservatives.

This does not mean people should vote Liberal or trust them. What it does mean is that we can know enough about the political landscape and we can admit to each other that there is an advantage of the NDP getting balance of power and admitting that the stronger the NDP is -- even without power -- the greater the influence the party could have.

Let's not beat up those that point this out. Let's not even beat up the Liberals that point this out to us over that point.

NDP supporters do not need to be so small minded as to insist that the Liberals and Conservatives are identical in order to reject both to vote NDP either. We can criticize each of them very well - without saying they are identical. We can point out what they have in common as well -- while still seeing there are some differences.

 

Pondering

The danger in pushing the Liberals left is that people then vote Liberal in subsequent elections.

NDP support is growing because the Liberals are too far right. They need to stay there and be branded with the same refusal to act seriously on climate change and inequality as the Conservatives are. This is an emergency. It doesn't matter if you die from a hail of bullets or a single bullet you are still dead, The Liberals just take a few bullets out out of the equation. 

For many years the NDP had no hope of a win federally and moved to the centre in the hopes of being able to attract more support. But times they are a changing. We have Corbyn and Sanders and even Warren. Occupy happened. Climate change and income inequality are not fringe topics anymore. 

In this election Trudeau has been exposed as a fraud. He may be getting votes but people are holding their noses to do it. I imagine there are Conservatives holding their noses to vote Scheer. 

If Trudeau supports a Conservative minority he will wear it in 2023. 

Misfit Misfit's picture

Actually, the NDP historically get around this percentage of the vote in elections or around 23%. The Greens still took about 4-5% from the NDP.

The NDP didn't crash and we are still alive to face another day, which is very positive indeed. Four weeks ago, we were on the edge of a total financial collapse, and were wondering if we were going to have party status or a political party after tomorrow. The Liberals figured that they could get an easy majority simply by pecking away at a dead NDP carcass. That didn't happen.

This is no insult to Jagmeet Singh either. He ran a completely flawless campaign until he let his Brampton buddy remain as an NDP candidate. Canadians noticed his strengths and our traditional support base flocked back to the party.

That is how I see it anyway. Elizabeth May has expanded her party support from 5-6% up to 9-10%. If she holds that tomorrow, then it is a strong victory for Elizabeth May as well.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

The danger in pushing the Liberals left is that people then vote Liberal in subsequent elections.

NDP support is growing because the Liberals are too far right. They need to stay there and be branded with the same refusal to act seriously on climate change and inequality as the Conservatives are. This is an emergency. It doesn't matter if you die from a hail of bullets or a single bullet you are still dead, The Liberals just take a few bullets out out of the equation. 

For many years the NDP had no hope of a win federally and moved to the centre in the hopes of being able to attract more support. But times they are a changing. We have Corbyn and Sanders and even Warren. Occupy happened. Climate change and income inequality are not fringe topics anymore. 

In this election Trudeau has been exposed as a fraud. He may be getting votes but people are holding their noses to do it. I imagine there are Conservatives holding their noses to vote Scheer. 

If Trudeau supports a Conservative minority he will wear it in 2023. 

How can you expect the Liberals to do what other parties would prefer they do?

This is not about strategy anyway. If the LPC moves left they leave less room for NDP and more for a more extreme conservative party and a less extreme one. If they move right they cut off room for a centrist right party but leave room for NDP to grow. When they bob back and forth people say they are untrustworthy. I explained all this.

The NDP does not get to put the Liberals where they want but the more left the NDP goes the more room they leave the Liebrals to be centre left and the more right the NDP goes the more the Liberals have to push the Conservatives.

But a party does not go where it designs it want to go they go based on membership. If the CPC moves right then people on their left will find that too much and go Liberal which moves them a bit right as they are moderate Conservatives. When the CPC takes the moderate conservatives the Liberals moveleft. When the NDP takes their progressives they move right.

Not a simple decision but based on migration of supporters who make the party change.

Basically all the parties shift for room. This is in addition to having a good leader - spokesperson. The better the party leadership and communications are the more they can compete in a narrow space but they work with and for the membership so what they lose or attract changes the party.

quizzical

So but your words fo not explain Conservative NFP switch voters.

KarlL

quizzical wrote:

So but your words fo not explain Conservative NFP switch voters.

See below for educational fault lines.  There is also a significant vein of anti-Liberal and especially anti-Trudeau sentiment.  Liberal smugness certainly turns some people off and they will look for any alternative that can fight that.  Lastly, Conservatives and NDP are both in a sense "outs" and Liberals are "ins".  The remedies are very different but each has at least  surface appeal to people upset with the status quo, whether in society or with their own circumstances.  Voters aren't for the most part deeply ideological.

Frank Graves @VoiceOfFranky

Education is a major new fault line with U-ed leaning strongly LPC and non-U-ed opting CPC. In a break from the past and resembling Trump support, the CPC are doing very well with the working class. The NDP rise ahs seen them doing very well with working class as well

Image

 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If that poll is demographically accurate, it's a major failing of the NDP that it is losing the votes of the poor to the Conservatives-losing in that demographic to the party which is most actively hostile to that demographic.

If we needed evidence that the NDP's long-time fixation with branding itself the party of "the middle class" while forgetting that the poor even exist was and is a pointless waste of time, we've got it right there.

The NDP is losing the poor, losing voters it should be able to count on winning overwhelmingly, while failing to make any significant gains among other demographics as a result of the decision to write off the poor and pretend they don't exist.  Years of appeasing the meanest spirited-inclinations of this mythical "middle class", and the NDP only gets 17% of its votes. 

What the hell was the point?

 

MegB

Ken Burch wrote:

At this point, Scheer is the coming across as the most ineffective Conservative leader since Kim Campbell

Minor quibble here. Kim Campbell wasn't so much ineffective as she was left with a steaming pile of Mulroney's shite. Her hands were tied, much like Rachel Notley's, by the myopic greed-driven stupidity that came before her. Not that I'm a Campbell fan - not by any means - just remembering that particular political moment.

Paladin1

Rob8305 wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Why are you so thrilled about a Liberal govt? Trudeau managed this because the Liberal political machine is incredibly influential and powerful. There is a reason why the Liberals have governed Canada for 2/3rds of its history. 

We should all be very careful that they don't end up winning a surprise majority on Monday. Shame on anybody for voting Liberal.

I am thrilled for one reason and one reason alone:  Andrew Scheer terrifies me like few politicans ever have in Canadian history.

 

What "terrifies" you about Andrew Scheer? 

Sean in Ottawa

quizzical wrote:

So but your words fo not explain Conservative NFP switch voters.

 

My explanation was related to those on the left-right continuum which is a large number and includes, almost entirely, party workers and activists. It certainly includes most of those who draft and work for policy proposals.

NDP-CPC switchers are mostly not on that continuum and mostly not as involved in politics.

Also in many places where this is the case the NDP is the centre party and there is little if anything between them and the Conservatives appealling for votes.