Maxime Bernier

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R.E.Wood

Those poll numbers should be very encouraging for Bernier. His un-named, non-existent one-man party is already just 3 points behind the NDP federally, and - surprising to me - seems to be drawing support from the Cons, Libs, and NDP.

progressive17 progressive17's picture

Reform got votes from the NDP if you will remember. This is not an unusual phenomenon.

gadar

If Bernier can actually get the party off the ground and has a good fund raising machine then I can see him overtake the Cons and have a good shot at forming the govt.

If Bernier is moderately succesful and takes 15-20% of the vote and Cons end up with 30% and end up in the opposition maybe then they can start warming upto electoral reform.

Very little difference in popular vote can end up in a majority Liberal govt. I think the Liberal margins of victory will be thin while the Cons will win their strongholds with wide margins.

All very speculative at this moment anyway.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

R.E.Wood wrote:

Those poll numbers should be very encouraging for Bernier. His un-named, non-existent one-man party is already just 3 points behind the NDP federally, and - surprising to me - seems to be drawing support from the Cons, Libs, and NDP.

All of whom are xenophobes.

josh

I think Bernier will fade the closer to the election.  If he’s able to form a party at all.  He’s on an ego trip driven by his bitterness over losing a race to Scheer that he thinks he actually won.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

I think that right now is kind of like "opening weekend for a movie" for Bernier. 

And the idea that people are ready to claim a willingness to vote for his proposed party, despite not knowing who their local candidate is, what the party stands for (aside from presumably less multiculturalism) and despite it not even having a name should tell us all we need to know about polls and the people who answer them.

gadar
gadar

Could the xenophobic nationalism we see in Europe and the United States happen here? We will soon find out.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-does-the-bernier-party-s...

lagatta4
6079_Smith_W
Sean in Ottawa

Unionist wrote:

How about "Great Republican Independent Party"?

It's high time we all got a grip.

 

How about :

Socialist Hating Independent Team

Sean in Ottawa

Without very detailed polling the effect of Bernier's party on the balance in the House may be unclear.

It may not be very much.

If Bernier pulls from the Conservatives in heavily conservative areas and even takes soem seats but does nto pull from them in ridings where the other parties have strength AND he pulls marginally from the other parties as well, THEN the total Conservative count in seats could be largely unchanged with the exception that it is split into two parties that would happily vote for the same crap.

The Conservatives might be able to vote strategically enough to quash significant benefits to the Liberals and NDP. They certainly have the additional money from deep pockets to poll very effectively and even stand down in some places if needed. Of course this latter part might work in grass roots even as the party at the top is steeped in acrimony.

It is also unclear that a two headed monster could not take more seats: A Bernier Francophone Quebec party could take more seats in Quebec than Scheer while a non-Quebec anglo do better in the most bigoted parts of Canada.

I think the new party might manage to get 10-15% of the vote and quite shockingly be a wash in terms of total effect on the balance of power between right-centre-left seats in the House.

lagatta4
Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
If Bernier pulls from the Conservatives in heavily conservative areas and even takes soem seats but does nto pull from them in ridings where the other parties have strength AND he pulls marginally from the other parties as well, THEN the total Conservative count in seats could be largely unchanged with the exception that it is split into two parties that would happily vote for the same crap.

Theoretically, between them they could win enough seats to try to govern in a coalition government, like in BC.  It would be ironic as hell if acrimony and bitterness drove them apart, but opportunism and power brought them right back together again.

It would probably go down in history as a kind of genius move, too.  If splitting into a "slightly left right" and "slightly right right" made the combined parties a "bigger tent" than if one single party had to please all conservatives that would be like closing down your restaurant, opening TWO restaurants right beside each other, and by "competing", end up with more customers.

WWWTT

Agreed Mr Magoo

edited to add

And once again you found a way to use food and or eating to help articulate your thoughts.  Ya that’s a writing style you’ve mastered! You’re the only forum poster I’ve ever come across with such a unique writing  characteristic!

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Speaking of restaurants, I wonder if this right wing spat will be resolved on the back of a napkin.

gadar

With the Internet, it is now much easier and less costly to find relevant information and mobilize around an issue. A small group of citizens can have a huge impact. Join me if you are fed up with the traditional way of doing politics 

https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/status/1036014838193971200

gadar
gadar

Bernier doesnt like that the labour leaders have a say in things that have a direct impact on the workers. Well what does Howdy Doody think of this, or maybe he has not yet received his instructions from Harper about this.

https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/status/1036579342254596097

jerrym

On CTV's Power Play, Tondra MacCharles said that three Conservative MPs have had secret talks with Bernier, several former Conservative MPs are willing to run for a Bernier party, and a number of people are willing to set up riding associations. Bernier would run from a libertarian perspective on issues related to equalization payments, NAFTA, ending corporate welfare, and supply management. 

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Bernier would run from a libertarian perspective on issues related to equalization payments, NAFTA, ending corporate welfare, and supply management.

But not a libertarian perspective on health care?

I'd have thought all the Oscar Leroys ready to vote for him would already be lining up for the opportunity to pay for their coronary bypass out-of-pocket.

Maybe Bernier can square the political libertarian circle, and not pay for everyone else's stuff, while making everyone else pay for their stuff.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Would any of you be willing to explain the "supply management" issue?  I'm not from Quebec and am having a hard time getting a handle on what Bernier is upset about there.

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

Would any of you be willing to explain the "supply management" issue?  I'm not from Quebec and am having a hard time getting a handle on what Bernier is upset about there.

Try this. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supply_management_(Canada)

gadar

jerrym wrote:

On CTV's Power Play, Tondra MacCharles said that three Conservative MPs have had secret talks with Bernier, several former Conservative MPs are willing to run for a Bernier party, and a number of people are willing to set up riding associations. Bernier would run from a libertarian perspective on issues related to equalization payments, NAFTA, ending corporate welfare, and supply management. 

This sounds interesting, if gets a couple sitting and a handful former MPs, he immediately gets legitimacy. If he can get this thing off the ground, the Cons heads will explode. And that will be a beautiful sight.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Ken Bursh wrote,

"Would any of you be willing to explain the "supply management" issue?  I'm not from Quebec and am having a hard time getting a handle on what Bernier is upset about there."

i bumped up North Report's thread about the Dairy Industry. We discussed supply management of dairy in that thread.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

Ken Bursh wrote,

"Would any of you be willing to explain the "supply management" issue?  I'm not from Quebec and am having a hard time getting a handle on what Bernier is upset about there."

i bumped up North Report's thread about the Dairy Industry. We discussed supply management of dairy in that thread.

Thank you.  

Misfit Misfit's picture

The dairy industry is all across Canada. It is not fixated solely in Quebec. Quebec does have the largest number of dairy farms of any province in Canada, so that would make it a very big issue in that province.

Canada has a quota system for dairy. The dairy farmers can only sell as much milk as their quota allows them to.

The government measures the demand for dairy in the market place and Canadian dairy farmers produce and sell their milk to meet that demand. In return the government sets the price for the milk at a dollar value that guarantees that the dairy farmers cover the production expenses and allows them to earn a marginal profit. This keeps the supply of dairy products stable and consistent and keeps the price stable as well.

critics like Bernier claim that consumers are paying too much for their dairy and that it is inefficient because dairy farmers have to throw away some of their excess milk in order to live within their quota. 

According to the right-wingers, if you lost the quota, the dairy farmers can sell all that they produce and then let the market settle on a price which will be much lower than they get from supply side management. Canadian farmers can also export their extra milk internationally and give them a chance to make a lot more money. Some also figure that with the cheaper Canadian dollar that Canadian farmers can make huge inroads into the United States market and it could give Canadian farmers a huge advantage all the while, making the cost of dairy much cheaper for consumers.

supply management then makes the Canadian farmers uncompetitive on the international market which they figure is a wasted opportunity.

Canadian dairy farmers claim that without supply management the Canadian dairy industry will crumble and that they cannot survive financially without it.

The United States heavily subsidizes its dairy farms. In that other thread I posted an article which says that with the cost to American tax payers of these heavy subsidies, American dairy turns out to be much more expensive than Canadian dairy. Canadian dairy is not subsidized.

The State of Wisconsin has allowed massive corporate backed mega farms to set up business. These mega farms are driving the smaller family owned dairy farms out of business because they simply cannot compete with the giant corporations. These few mega farms produce more milk than what their state market can handle. They want to dump their surplus into Canada. Wisconsin has the production capacity to supply Canada with all its dairy requirements. Many  feel that this move will destroy our national dairy industry and leave us totally dependent on the United States for our dairy needs.

The  United States wants Canada to  terminate its supply side management system so that the Americans can gain more access to our markets. Maxine Bernier likes this because it will drop the price of milk and other dairy products for consumers. As a libertarian he also objects to the government interfering in the marketplace.

He can also sell the idea of cheaper products to Quebe consumers and get some of them on board to support the destruction of our Supply Side Management system

And what if hypothetically the United States decides to go off to war somewhere and they want Canada to join them. If Canada doesn't want to get involved  then the United States would be  in a position to tell Canada that either they participate in the war or else they will cut off all dairy shipments  to Canada. Without our own national dairy industry Canada is vulnerable to the United States in forcing their own  agenda on Canada.  This could result in the loss of our own national sovereignty.

With SSM, Canadians have a very reliable supply of products and always at a stable price that is much cheaper than American dairy products when you factor in the cost of the heavy subsidies that are paid out to the American dairy farmers. We also have control over our own supply and we retain our sovereignty.

There is also the issue of dried processed dairy products that Americans are dumping into Canada. Canadian cheese producers can use these processed dried products to make cheese more cost effectively than by using fresh dairy from Canadian sources. These processed products fall outside the legal framework of the current Nafta agreement. These products did not exist twenty-five years ago or so when NAFTA was first signed into law.  

Because  they are processed Americans do not classify them as dairy. Canadians want them classified as dairy products and include them with the American quota that they have for American imports.. 

So Americans have a quota of how much they can export into Canada. It is a very large quota  and most of their dairy products already come into Canada tariff free.  Americans are now demanding much larger access to Canadian markets and Canadian Dairy farmers fear that this larger quota of American imports will severely hurt Canadian farmers because their market share will shrink and make dairy farming unsustainable.

many fear that the Liberal government is going to throw the Canadian dairy farmers under the bus in order to get the NAFTA agreement signed.

 

josh

Good summary.

Programs like supply management ensure that farmers can get a reasonable price for their product at minuscule cost to the consumer.  But to market libertarian ideologues, it is heresy.  The market must rule.  Prices, like wages, must be as low as possible.

Cody87

Ken Burch wrote:

Would any of you be willing to explain the "supply management" issue?  I'm not from Quebec and am having a hard time getting a handle on what Bernier is upset about there.

Supposedly (IOW, according to him), this is the reason:

Beyond the importance of this issue at the NAFTA negotiations, the reason I have focused on supply management so much is that it is a litmus test: If you let yourself be manipulated by such a small cartel, how will you be able to resist other interest groups and make the right decisions for all Canadians? Simply, you won’t.

Source: https://nationalpost.com/opinion/maxime-bernier-why-my-new-political-mov...

I bring this up not because I think he's trustworthy or I believe him - I don't. I bring it up because there's some overlap in his rhetoric (about letting companies/interest groups dictate policy) and what has been effective for politicians on the left (eg. Bernie Sanders). In some ways, it's not unlike one of Trump's secondary message, which is what motivated some Bernie-Trump switchers. Some voter's primary concern is to reduce or eliminate business influence in politics, which is a traditionally left wing wheelhouse but has begun to be co-opted by the more libertarian side of the right. This is important to understand to ensure that Bernier takes the minimum of the left vote.

Mobo2000

"...there's some overlap in his rhetoric (about letting companies/interest groups dictate policy) and what has been effective for politicians on the left (eg. Bernie Sanders). In some ways, it's not unlike one of Trump's secondary message, which is what motivated some Bernie-Trump switchers. Some voter's primary concern is to reduce or eliminate business influence in politics, which is a traditionally left wing wheelhouse but has begun to be co-opted by the more libertarian side of the right."

Yes, agree, though I think the more principled libertarians were always there.  I am also curious if he will start to produce some Canadianized version of the Trump supporter rhetoric about "vote-buying democrats in bed with identity interest groups", and how well that will resonate with the public.   Or perhaps he already has and I missed it.

 

voice of the damned

Mobo2000 wrote:

 

Yes, agree, though I think the more principled libertarians were always there. 

I agree. At my university campus in the 1990s, the Objectivist Club campaigned against a proposed city bylaw that would make panhandling illegal. Local business interests were big backers of the law.

Of course, a lot of the Objectivists were probably the kind of people who wouldn't give money to pandhandlers, or would support campaigns ADVISING people not to donate(such a campaign existed at the time, and had some surprising backers). But those positions aren't inconsistent with supporting someone's right to engage in the activity.

(And, for any libertarian pedants, yes, I know Objectivists claim not to be libertarians, but for all practical purposes, that's what they are.)

Mobo2000

RE: misfit post 128

Yes thanks for this info.   I was particularly amazed by this:

"The State of Wisconsin has allowed massive corporate backed mega farms to set up business. These mega farms are driving the smaller family owned dairy farms out of business because they simply cannot compete with the giant corporations. These few mega farms produce more milk than what their state market can handle. They want to dump their surplus into Canada. Wisconsin has the production capacity to supply Canada with all its dairy requirements."

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

The big dairy industry that is headquartered in Quebec has bought up a large part of the BC dairy industry in the last decade.  Unless you look to buy local, as I do, it is harder and harder to find anything not produced on the other side of the continent.

The other part of this regulation is the standards in the US are shitty. We don't need to be buying milk that includes synthetic growth hormones that are only introduced to stimulate production.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:

The government measures the demand for dairy in the market place and Canadian dairy farmers produce and sell their milk to meet that demand. In return the government sets the price for the milk at a dollar value that guarantees that the dairy farmers cover the production expenses and allows them to earn a marginal profit. This keeps the supply of dairy products stable and consistent and keeps the price stable as well.

critics like Bernier claim that consumers are paying too much for their dairy and that it is inefficient because dairy farmers have to throw away some of their excess milk in order to live within their quota. 

According to the right-wingers, if you lost the quota, the dairy farmers can sell all that they produce and then let the market settle on a price which will be much lower than they get from supply side management. Canadian farmers can also export their extra milk internationally and give them a chance to make a lot more money. Some also figure that with the cheaper Canadian dollar that Canadian farmers can make huge inroads into the United States market and it could give Canadian farmers a huge advantage all the while, making the cost of dairy much cheaper for consumers.

I have a couple of questions, and maybe you know the answers.

1) do dairy farmers, in fact, sometimes dump milk because they've produced in excess of their quota and cannot sell it?

2) is this quota imposed on sales between farmers and (let's just call them) "intermediates" like wholesalers or grocery chains or whatever?  Or does the government buy the quota of milk and then sell it?  That would seem like the most logical way to ensure a stable and sufficient price.

3) if the answer to 1 is "yes, sometimes" and the answer to 2 is "the government buys and resells the milk at cost and pays the dairy farmer" then would it make any sense for the government to do the following?:

- agree to pay dairy farmers the usual and hopefully reasonable amount for milk

- take any surplus milk produced, rather than seeing it flushed down the sewage system

- provide milk to distributors and grocery stores at an "x%" discount, on the condition that they resell it with the same discount?

The demand for something at the grocery is never independent of its price, and people who might not intend to purchase milk might choose to, if it were cheaper.  Perhaps more importantly, it seems a bit of a shame, in 2018, to consider milk being poured down the drain even as we're demanding that other food providers address needless food waste.  How can we be mad at Panera for throwing two-day old buns in the dumpster if we're going to let dairy farmers destroy milk because we estimated that the public won't want to buy as much as their cows produced?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Thank you misfit for this:

"The State of Wisconsin has allowed massive corporate backed mega farms to set up business. These mega farms are driving the smaller family owned dairy farms out of business because they simply cannot compete with the giant corporations. These few mega farms produce more milk than what their state market can handle. They want to dump their surplus into Canada. Wisconsin has the production capacity to supply Canada with all its dairy requirements."

I heard a US perhaps Wisonsin dairy farmer on As It Happens saying that Canada should protect their supply management system or else they will be screwed over as they were. He said they could easily produce more than enough supply to cover demands in the US and Canada, meaning no need for local competition.

Screw those who want to destroy it. I am still pissed off with the dismantling of the Wheat Board and single desk distribution.

 

gadar
Cody87

Mobo2000 wrote:
I am also curious if he will start to produce some Canadianized version of the Trump supporter rhetoric about "vote-buying democrats in bed with identity interest groups", and how well that will resonate with the public.   Or perhaps he already has and I missed it.

I'm not sure. I was tuned out until very recently.

I think it's going to be very, very hard to know where the public as a whole stands, because there's pretty much no credible sources of public opinion. Particularly since information (read: propaganda) is now globally disseminated, we're entering a bit of new territory where some significant percentage of the public (maybe 5-10%) may vote primarily based on perceived issues (real or otherwise) being faced by other countries. eg. "Look at the surveillence in China! We can't let that happen here." 

Misfit Misfit's picture

Thank you Laine Lowe. I'm going to look up that As it Happens and see if I can listen to it.

And Magoo, I think that your questions are excellent  and I have wondered some of that myself. 

 I am not in anyway connected to the dairy industry so the specifics you inquire about are beyond my knowledge. 

 

Misfit Misfit's picture

Here is an article about the dire reality Wisconsin dairy farmers face.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/amp.jsonline.com/amp/511881002

Misfit Misfit's picture

Yes Canadian dairy farmers do dump surplus milk according to this article. (This is a Globe & Mail anti supply-side management article)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/milk-surplus-forcing-canadas-dairy-industry-to-dump-supply/article25030753/

so I guesss one needs to assess which is worse, farmers dumping surplus or Canadians losing their dairy industry with farmers going bankrupt just like the article in the previous post shows what is happening in Wisconsin and all across the United States for that matter.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
so I guesss one needs to assess which is worse

Well, one last-ditch plan could be to try to subsidize milk for children, or the poor (or whomever, and assuming we think they should have milk).  This would cost a little, but that subsidy might tilt the balance of what constitutes a "surplus", since right now the "surplus" is what cannot be sold at market price, not necessarily what people do not want.

It just seems a little perverse to say "if your cows produced more than we will allow you to sell (or will buy from you) but not more than what people want to consume (or should consume, for their health) then pour it down the sewer system."

Another question, though:  in our current system, can a dairy producer sell their milk to ANYONE at any price they're willing to pay?  I'm asking because I think that some smaller, family dairy farms might have a bit of an advantage over giant mega-farms in that regard, and that could help them weather the competition of those mega-farms.  They can't compete on amount or price, but they could compete by offering their milk as better, the way a rancher who raises organic, grass-fed beef can reasonably charge a higher price than some feedlot/slaughterhouse conglomerate.

There's currently no "beef quota" that I know of, but even if there were I would expect it to take the form of "kilograms"... or perhaps just "tonnes", but not "dollar value" or price.  Is that how the quota system on milk works?

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Even if surpluses were donated for free, that still would not satisfy the free trade rules on the table. I may be wrong, but I think when we still had the Wheat Board, surplus grain was a huge food contribution to the developing world.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Magoo, when have Canadians ever faced a shortage of dairy in the market place? I really want you to give me an example of when people have had to do without? That is excluding Tuktoyaktuk or Innuvik.

you make up scenarios that never happen.

and the price is fixed. You may be confusing American dairy farmers with Canadian farmers who have a fixed price and quantity.

if you look at all the market instability for dairy around the world and the constantly stressed out farmers internationally, why would you want that fate for Canadian dairy farmers?

 

JKR

In search of higher-fat butter; The Globe and Mail; February 21, 2012; Chris Nutall-Smith;
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/food-trends/in-search...

Quote:
The Dairy Commission doesn't bother itself making the price of butter competitive for everyday consumers, however – we're generally barred from accessing the foreign stuff. Outside of its program for manufacturing exporters, the country allows in just 3,274 metric tonnes of foreign butter annually – less than 4 per cent of Canada's consumption. Anything beyond that is assessed a duty of 289.5 per cent.

Mr. Magoo Mr. Magoo's picture

Quote:
Magoo, when have Canadians ever faced a shortage of dairy in the market place? I really want you to give me an example of when people have had to do without? That is excluding Tuktoyaktuk or Innuvik.

Where did I say anyone was doing without?

Quote:
you make up scenarios that never happen.

Alternate theory:  you're making up a scenario in which I made up a scenario that never happened.

What I suggested was that the DEMAND for dairy could go up if the price were subsidized for some.  In other words, that some people who find they "don't want it" when they can't afford it might want it if they could.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Magoo,

Yes, and lets subsidize pickles too while we are at it. I predict that the demand for pickles will increase because the price will be cheaper. BUT...just like with American dairy, the consumers will pay more because they will have to pay the subsidization tax as well on April 30.

Americans pay more for their dairy products than we do, and their dairy farmers are going bankrupt.

And don't blame the dairy farmers for poverty in Canada.

and please don't fantasize about bankrupting our entire dairy industry because you want to pay more for your dairy products but think that you are paying less.

When Toronto hosted the Pan Am games and a flood of tourists hit Toronto all at once there was nneve any shortage of milk. I can assure you that the Ontario dairy farmers supplied all that milk all by themselves, and they knew that there was going to be a bigger demand for dairy and they increased their supply accordingly.

Canadians have the best managed dairy system in the world and yet so many want to destroy it all because they think that they will save pennies on the dollar. They won't. They will just destroy our dairy industry.

Misfit Misfit's picture

JKR,

Julia Child was an American chef who said that American butter is inferior to French butter. So this is not just a Canadian butter dilemma but a North American one.

cco

Misfit wrote:

BUT...just like with American dairy, the consumers will pay more because they will have to pay the subsidization tax as well on April 30.

It's always curious to see such a classic right-wing Fraser Institute-esque argument popping up among leftists. The thing about taxes is that the income tax system is progressive. The wealthy (when they're not evading paying with offshore banks and the like) pay more than the poor. Supply management cartel prices are felt only at the consumer level, so the poor feel the impact more, proportionally to their income, than the rich.

Misfit Misfit's picture

I said and I will repeat...Do Not Blame the Dairy Farmers for Povery in Canada.

And, our tax system is not progressive at all. The GST, PST, and HST are designed to tax the consumer who purchase goods and services.

The govwrnments keep legislating in lower and lower corporate tax rates so that the multi-billion dollar companies can assume less financial responsibility than everyone else. This maximizes their profits and increases the tax burden on middle and lower class Canadians. That also is not progressive.

The wealthy also get more income tax deductions than lower income people get.

I don't see our tax system as being progressive at all. It is very regressive.

Look at all the dairy farmers going bankrupt across the United States. The American model for dairy production is a grotesque failure. 

American dairy farmers are telling Canadians to protect their supply side management. Many wish that they had the same system in the United States. And the American consumers would benefit as well.

I am low income, and I can afford to purchase dairy products. Most low income people can as well.

JKR

Misfit wrote:

JKR,

Julia Child was an American chef who said that American butter is inferior to French butter. So this is not just a Canadian butter dilemma but a North American one.

Maybe we should emulate Europe's dairy system? I don't see why our dairy selection should not at least have the higher standards provided by Europe's system.

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