Any way to get an electoral map like the ones above of all of Brant Riding? The one you have of Brantford is great but I was wondering if you might have something that gives a complete picture of that riding.
These are great but... the new format isn't nearly as clear as the old format. I don't suppose there's an easy way of changing it. What I mean by this is when you zoom in and out the quality declines dramatically compared to the old format of proper PDFs.
Any way to get an electoral map like the ones above of all of Brant Riding? The one you have of Brantford is great but I was wondering if you might have something that gives a complete picture of that riding.
And please throw in Haldimand-Norfolk, while you are at it -- I'm curious to see where the NDP won polls there. Thanks in advance. (I am surprised at the number of requests that you have received in these two threads that manage to avoid using please and thank you...)
Very cool! Although I disagree with some of the ridings you made, and their names... BTW, Cochrane-Suprior is way too small, and I dont think would fly.
Kanata-Ottawa should be renamed Kanata-Carleton while Ottawa-Carleton should be renamed Rideau-Carleton. The last boundary commission tried to use "Ottawa" like you did, but there was public uproar about it.
I of course will be doing my own maps after the census results come in.
I like your urban Belleville--Quinte West, although Stirling-Rawdon doesn't quite belong.
So your Northumberland--Peterborough is not bad, except that Millbrook has more long-standing ties with Port Hope, while both Otonabee-South Monaghan and Douro-Dummer actually contain parts of the Peterborough Urban Area. So I would leave them in Peterborough, and move Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan into Northumberland-Peterborough. That leaves the nice community of interest of Asphodel-Norwood, Havelock-Belmont-Methuen and Trent Hills, which are a single school board ward in the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board.
The rest of your eastern Ontario map looks very good, except maybe Lanark--Frontenac which (like the present monster) includes Carleton Place with the north end of Kingston. Leeds-Grenville and Lanark share a school board and have much closer connections, but they're too big. Slice another 14,000 off Kingston, take the west 31,604 people (2006 census) off Leeds, and you're getting a nice Frontenac-Thousand Islands riding. But it needs more people. Shift Loyalist (part of Kingston CMA) into it, and add Tay Valley, and you're there. (Shift Stirling-Rawdon into Prince Edward--Hastings--Lennox and Addington.) But the result is a bit of a dog's breakfast. Is it really much better than Lanark--Frontenac? You decide.
Sorry to clutter up this thread, but the private message function didn't work.
I have not had time to go through the entire map but it seems like the Conservatives stand to win almost every new seat except Toront-Harbour (which thankfully is where I live)
Do you have the net result as to which ridings would be gained or lost by which party?
Wilf, thanks for all info. The Millbrook stuff makes sense. The new Peterborough has an estimated population of 114,000 while Northumberland-Peterborough has 104,000. You're right that the other suggestion is a bit of a dog's breakfast. What do you think about Lanark-Grenville (103,000) and Frontenac-Leeds (104,000)?
As for the PMs, I find that I get an error message every time I send one, but the message still goes through successfully. I got four copies of your PM this morning!
This map seems to take the Bramalea-Gore-Malton seat which the NDP almost won and chops into three pieces. Is there no way to draw a notionally NDP riding in that area?
Sure there's a way to draw an NDP seat in Peel; just check out this link.
Using the 2011 population estimates, Brampton (536,000) has the right number of people for five seats while Mississauga (769,000) has the right number for seven. Adding Malton (41,000) to Brampton would require moving an equal number to Mississauga to balance populations, causing a ripple effect across both cities.
I have not had time to go through the entire map but it seems like the Conservatives stand to win almost every new seat except Toront-Harbour (which thankfully is where I live)
Toronto-Harbour in Krago's "predistribution proposal" does not look like a new seat to me -- it seems to me to be the replacement/rough equivalent for the present Toronto Centre. The ridings in Toronto in this proposal least "matchable" to predecessor ridings seem to me to be Downsview (very safe Liberal, even in the last election) and Don Valley North (marginally Liberal in the 2011 federal election).
Currently, the City of Toronto (excluding the Pickering-Scarboro E riding) has 8 New Democrat MPs, 8 Conservatives, and 6 Liberals. Under Krago's "predistribution proposal", there would 9 New Democrat MPs, 6 Conservatives, and 9 Liberals.
I'm too lazy to count the whole province. But, if we ask nicely, I am sure Krago will post the totals on notional winners under these boundaries. Pretty please?
And remember not to put too much face value into "poised to win"--not just in the event of a Liberal comeback, but also in light of the NDP now being validated as even a boomburban voting option. Or even if the Tories are favoured in the "new" boomburb seats, the NDP might have hitherto-unseen potential in those seats "left behind", such as in deepest Mississauga, etc...
I'm too lazy to count the whole province. But, if we ask nicely, I am sure Krago will post the totals on notional winners under these boundaries. Pretty please?
Are you too lazy to scroll up six posts? The notional results are:
While it would be easy to say just take the 5,000-10,000 most Northern residents of both Sault Ste. Marie and Nickel Belt/Manitoulin ridings and put them in with Cochrane-Superior, you'd have to go pretty far south into the ridings to get that many people. Maybe the inevitable, consolidating the 4 most Northern ridings into 3 (Thunder Bay, Cochrane-Kapuskasing-Superior North, and Kenora-Rainy River), might be the best option, although a lot of people won't like that.
Also, I don't understand the uproar of the Ottawa ridings having the "Ottawa - " prefix? All Calgary and Edmonton (two cities about the size of Ottawa) have all their ridings start with their respective city's name.
I don't understand the uproar of the Ottawa ridings having the "Ottawa - " prefix? All Calgary and Edmonton (two cities about the size of Ottawa) have all their ridings start with their respective city's name.
The name of the city is still, sometimes, Ottawa-Carleton. The school board is Ottawa-Carleton District School Board. The transit system is "OC Transpo." And so on.
It has to do with amalgamation. Calgary and Edmonton didn't get amalgamated in the same way. Kanata is in Ottawa in name only, and it doesn't belong in the riding name. Same goes with Barrhaven, or the southern rural bits. Ottawa-Orleans is an exception, because they don't care as much. Perhaps it's because it was in two prior municipalities and if you go far back enough, two prior counties (making "Carleton-Orleans" a weird name)
How about re-naming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough as Hamilton West?
Wentworth West (or Wentworth North, actually if you look at the hisotircal name for the riding) is much preferred in my opinion to the long winded name they have now. However, I'm not sure how much the word Wentworth is used by locals anymore. "Carleton" is still used by rural Ottawans, and is more approrpriate than using "Ottawa" in riding names for those areas.
And yes, Ottawa-Orleans was renamed in between redistributions. I think it had to do with amalgamation. But, "Carleton-Glouceter" was a terrible name for the riding. I don't like Ottawa-Orleans as a name either, but it's a better choice. One name I'd like for that riding (but would never happen) is Orleans-Blackburn.
Personally I would like to see a ban on riding names that are more than three words. Some of them are ridiculous. West Vancouver sunshine coast sea to infinity etc etc? really.
While it would be easy to say just take the 5,000-10,000 most Northern residents of both Sault Ste. Marie and Nickel Belt/Manitoulin ridings and put them in with Cochrane-Superior, you'd have to go pretty far south into the ridings to get that many people. Maybe the inevitable, consolidating the 4 most Northern ridings into 3 (Thunder Bay, Cochrane-Kapuskasing-Superior North, and Kenora-Rainy River), might be the best option, although a lot of people won't like that.
At present, alnmost all of the northern Ontario constituencies have an averge population significantly lower than the Ontario average, on the principle that "it's hard to represent remote northern ridings". What Krago seems to have done here is to make two ridings that are clearly "remote" and give them especially low populations, while raising the averge of the more "urban" northern Ontario ridings. This makes sense.
A precedent was set by the Boundaries Commission for Nefoundland and Labrador in the 1980s. Before that, Labrador was joined with some part of the "northern peninsula" of Newfoundland, because Labrador has never had enough people to comprise an "average" federal constituency, and the ferry connection was to the northern peninsula. The last Boundaries Commission said "Hey, it is remote -- let's just accept that and make the remaining constituencies overpopulated so as to allow Labrador to be a riding unto itself", at about one-third the population of the Newfoundland constituencies. To a lesser degree, the Ontario boundaries commission followed the same principle in creating Kenora federally -- it is the smallest riding by population in northern Ontario (but 60% of an average Ontario riding's population, not roughly 33% as in the case of Labrador) and has close to an aboriginal majority.
The Supreme Court has heard many cases about appropriate balancing of riding populations, for example throwing out a Saskatchewan proposal to have all rural provincial ridings with an average population very significantly under the average for urban provincial riding, because it was just much gosh darned harder to drive from one farm to another -- the fact that the Conservatives (at the time) did better in rural ridings than in urban ridings had nothing to do with it, of course -- pinky swear!
While the Supremes tossed out the Saskatchewan plan for failing to respect the intent of the "right to vote" provisions in section 3 of the Charter, they did state that special rules for representation of remote populations might be justified in appropriate circumstances.
In my opinion, Sudbury riding does not need a lower than average population as a remote constituency. But the two constituencies drawn by Krago as Cochrane-Superior and Kenora do meet that principle. I am not saying that representing Timmins-Timiskaming will be all peaches and cream (despite the Clay Belt...) -- but a riding like Timmins-James Bay is less fair to the very remote predominantly aboriginal communities located that far out.
It's a judgment call, in each case -- as the Supremes said it should be. Comments above don't seem to get that Krago is taking that principle to a logical end, and not actually creating unjustifiable deviations -- instead, they are Supreme Court-endorsed justifiable deviations, IMHO.
The name of the city is still, sometimes, Ottawa-Carleton. The school board is Ottawa-Carleton District School Board. The transit system is "OC Transpo." And so on.
The name of the city is not "Ottawa-Carleton."
And how is it Ontario would go to 124 ridings without any being added to the Ottawa area, which is (proportionately) one of the most under-represented cities in Canada?
And how is it Ontario would go to 124 ridings without any being added to the Ottawa area, which is (proportionately) one of the most under-represented cities in Canada?
Well, in the present Parliament, the City of Ottawa plus the Town of Mississippi Mills comprise 7 constituencies. In Krago's proposal above, the City of Ottawa alone would be comprised of 8 constituencies. I believe that means Ottawa does gain.
In honour of provincial elections, would it be possible to request the 2006 map of Selkirk-Interlake, the 2011 map of Charlottetown, and maybe the 2011 of Prince Albert? Thanks.
I've changed the boundary around Peterborough (tip of the hat to Wilf Day) and added Rural % to the populations.
I've also created an alternative map for Northern Ontario that reduces the number of seats north of the 47th parallel from five to four, and keeps all of them within 25% of the provincial average.
Krago, would you be so kind and prepare a 2011 federal election map for the BC Interior? You do fantastic work and I appreciate what you have posted here!
This was probably noted already, but wow to the Macleod riding just south west of Calgary. Looks like the Tsuu T'ina reserve voted NDP heavily. I wonder why? I live right across Glenmore Trail/Highway 8 from the reserve but haven't gotten to know my neighbours.
Wilf, these aren't intended to be BC regions. Who in their right mind would have a region that split Nanaimo in half?
These are areas that would - based on estimates of estimates of population - receive additional seats if BC is allocated seven additional ridings. Since Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon is on the western end of its particular area, it could lose territory in the Fraser Canyon area to an adjoining seat and become more of a Chilliwack-centred ED. Capiche?
Also, if anyone would like to play this game at home, here is a map that shows how Ontario's 124 new ridings could be distributed, by county/region/district.
You're maps are great and thanks for uploading them and all but could you do a version of your Northern BC Interior Map that focuses more closely on Prince George? The giant black lines makes it so that you can't see a particularly good poll-by-poll result of the city even when you zoom to 2400%.
. . if anyone would like to play this game at home, here is a map that shows how Ontario's 124 new ridings could be distributed, by county/region/district.
Very helpful, except that Muskoka is in southern Ontario by almost every classification. The question is, should northern Ontario (including Parry Sound) get nine ridings or ten out of 124? By my estimates it rates 7.56 MPs, or nine MPs an average of 16% below quotient. You have better numbers; am I right? I suspect ten is not arguable; do you agree?
Also, does your Brant 1.29 include the 10,000 or so people of Six Nations, omitted from the 2006 census as incompletely enumerated?
Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999? Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.
And what is your point about the Six Nations territory? Since they do not participate in either the census or federal elections, do you think their population should be ignored when drawing electoral boundaries? Or should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?
I could continue. For Ontario elections, Muskoka and Parry Sound were separate districts until Mike Harris shrank the House in 1999.
For school boards, Muskoka is in Trillium Lakelands District School Board along with the City of Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton County, and is in the Central East Region of OPSBA. Parry Sound is in Near North District School Board along with North Bay and Nipissing, and is in the Northern Ontario region of OPSBA.
In fact I'm not aware of any institutional community of interest between Parry Sound and Muskoka, but there might be one. That's why I said Muskoka is almost always in Southern Ontario, Parry Sound in Northern Ontario. In fact, it might be "always."
Krago wrote:
Should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?
Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999? Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.
And what is your point about the Six Nations territory? Since they do not participate in either the census or federal elections, do you think their population should be ignored when drawing electoral boundaries? Or should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?
Krago, didn't you hear, Parry Sound-Muskoka is now the banana republic of Clementia. It's economy feeds from a separate trough.
Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999? Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.
It's worth noting that the original text of Tony Martin's bill excluded Parry Sound. Many (probably most) people in the other Northern districts scoff at the idea of Parry Sound being part of Northern Ontario - but then again, when I was in Sioux Lookout a lot of local residents scoffed at the idea that Sault Ste. Marie was part of Northern Ontario, so that goes to show you there is a certain "more-North-than-thou" attitude that peeps into how people construct their identity as Northerners. At the very least, the folks I met in Sioux Lookout tempered their scoffing with acknowledgement that (with the exception of Fort Severn and Peawanuck) most of inhabited Northern Ontario is far south of northern parts of the Western provinces.
Anyhow, Martin got a lot of blowback from people in Parry Sound, which led to the change in the bill. They asserted that while there are a lot of summer cottagers, the people that actually live in the region still face the same economic struggles and conditions as others in the North, and have about the same average income (if not a bit lower, compared to Greater Sudbury).
It can be argued that this doesn't necessarily mean you're part of the North, but Tony and the rest of the caucus (rightly, I believe) felt it wasn't worth alienating these people, particularly given their comparatively small population and given the Northern boundary is so subjective. Really the concept of "Northern Ontario" has only existed for a comparatively short time in Canadian political history, given Ontario's only had its present borders since about 1905. There are two traditional definitions of what constitutes Northern Ontario: The first was embodied by the original text of Tony's bill, limiting the North to everything north of the French River. This excludes Parry Sound and half of Nipissing. The second definition is all those administrative divisions in Ontario that are "Districts" plus Greater Sudbury (which was originally just part of Sudbury District, until the most recent round of restructuring). This includes all of Nipissing and Parry Sound, but excludes Muskoka. So I would say Muskoka doesn't necessarily have to be paired with Parry Sound, and in fact, Parry Sound's claims to Northern status would be better served if the clumping of the two were ended. In any case, even with this boundary, Tony's bill was very important, because a lot of FedNor money was actually going to places like Perth County and other places that are uncontestably NOT part of the North.
And, uh, while we're on the topic, Krago, do you think I could bug you for one of those maps for Sault Ste. Marie based on 2011 results? ;)
Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East).
Actually, four of them straddle the GTA border; the fifth (P-SE) straddles the 416/905 border. (Which is by way of reinforcing your point.)
In Northern/Southern terms, how was the Muskoka riding determined pre-1999, considering that it extended into the Midland part of Simcoe County?
Probably the same way most ridings are: census data. If a given coherent region doesn't have enough population to stand on its own, it's usually clumped with portions of adjoining regions that have more than enough population to constitute a single riding. Also there is a lot of back-and-forth between those parts of Simcoe and southern Muskoka, so combining them in a riding likely wasn't a big deal. Some of the Northern ridings, mind you, don't make much sense. Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing is basically what was left over after the rest of the region was carved up.
In fact I'm not aware of any institutional community of interest between Parry Sound and Muskoka, but there might be one. That's why I said Muskoka is almost always in Southern Ontario, Parry Sound in Northern Ontario. In fact, it might be "always."
In fact I'm not aware of any institutional community of interest between Parry Sound and Muskoka, but there might be one.
God Bless Google!
- Muskoka Parry Sound Minor Hockey League - Muskoka-Parry Sound District of Freemasons - Environment Canada - Forecast Sub-Regions Parry Sound-Muskoka-Huntsville - Muskoka~Parry Sound Community Mental Health Services - Parry Sound - Muskoka Stewardship Network - Muskoka/Parry Sound Domestic Violence Coordinating Committee - Muskoka-Parry Sound Health Unit - Muskoka and Parry Sound Genealogy Group - Addiction Outreach Muskoka Parry Sound
Before this debate gets too silly, let's agree that for Northern Ontarians, there's only one group whose boundaries REALLY matter. And they use the French River!
And meades, since you're the only Northern Ontarian around here, do you think Northern Ontario should get 9, 10 or 11 seats at the next redistribution?
Hi Krago, can you fix your link? I am eager to see the blow up of the Prince George map!
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing is basically what was left over after the rest of the region was carved up.
This. You can't even drive through the entire riding without going through other ridings, as there is no direct highway from Kap to Manitoulin or Elliot Lake.
You can't even drive through the entire riding without going through other ridings, as there is no direct highway from Kap to Manitoulin or Elliot Lake.
Has McGuinty released his transportation policy yet?
And there is a Muskoka Women's Advocacy Group which runs their shelters. By the way, I never mentioned the North Simcoe Muskoka Community Care Access Centre.
Krago wrote:
Muskoka~Parry Sound Community Mental Health Service
Point for you. Curiously, it is run by the North Simcoe Muskoka Local Health Integration Network. (By the way, you missed the The Muskoka-Parry Sound Poultry & Pigeon Association.)
I was once the PEI NDP candidate in that Orange riding in Charlottetown. Ah those were the days!
I've also tried to draw new Ontario boundaries many times, but one thing I disagree with Krago on, is I can't see the North losing even one seat, given that the remainder of the province is gaining so many new seats.
one thing I disagree with Krago on, is I can't see the North losing even one seat, given that the remainder of the province is gaining so many new seats.
I agree. The province passed legislation that the Northern Ontario ridings would remain the same while the southern Ontario ridings would conform to the redistributed federal ridings (because federally the North lost one seat, which precipitated an uproar that the provincial government didn't want to replicate). In fact, in order to kill the MMP referendum in the North, the liberals spread all sorts of misinformation that it would lead to fewer seats for Northern Ontario. That's what killed MMP in the North - not any affinity to the First-Past-the-Post sham democracy we've got going on.
I definitely get defensive at the thought of losing ridings at Queen's Park, but whether it's 11 seats or 10 seats or 9 seats, the results seem to be the same: Northern issues are always on the backburner, unless of course some corporations are trying to extract as much money from us as they can. Then the government just rolls out the red carpet.
The only attempt at a solution to this that I've seen is the NDP's plan for a legislative committee composed of all-party MPPs from the North to manage issues of Northern concern. It's definitely the closest thing to sovereignty that a major party has ever suggested in Ontario (strangely enough, considering our leader isn't even from the North any more). I think it's a good first step, but ultimately I would like to see something a little more formal that guarantees local control over the legislative agenda affecting the region and prevents the province from overriding local decision making.
In Northern/Southern terms, how was the Muskoka riding determined pre-1999, considering that it extended into the Midland part of Simcoe County?
Probably the same way most ridings are: census data. If a given coherent region doesn't have enough population to stand on its own, it's usually clumped with portions of adjoining regions that have more than enough population to constitute a single riding. Also there is a lot of back-and-forth between those parts of Simcoe and southern Muskoka, so combining them in a riding likely wasn't a big deal. Some of the Northern ridings, mind you, don't make much sense. Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing is basically what was left over after the rest of the region was carved up.
My question pertained more to the "Northern vs Southern Ontario" thing, i.e. I know how it was *created*; I just don't know whether it was thereby deemed "Northern" or "Southern"--unless it didn't matter at the time...
I've created an alternative map for the 12 ridings from Waterloo through to Halton, based on adding the Paris/St George area of Brant to 'Hamilton', rather than to Waterloo Region.
My question pertained more to the "Northern vs Southern Ontario" thing, i.e. I know how it was *created*; I just don't know whether it was thereby deemed "Northern" or "Southern"--unless it didn't matter at the time...
So even though the words 'Northern Ontario' and 'Southern Ontario' don't appear in the resolution, by the definition above both Parry Sound and Muskoka-Georgian Bay ridings were part of Southern Ontario.
The last time a provincial Electoral Boundaries Commission was created in Ontario (1983), Northern Ontario was defined as roughly the area north of the French River.
Quite so. However, everything the province has done in recent years has clearly added Parry Sound to the Ontario government's definition of Northern Ontario.
I heard on SunTV news channel that the Tories will be introducing their legislation to add new seats to Ontario, BC, and Alberta in the House of Commons next week, If SunTV said it, it must be true...
Krago, great work on these maps. There are tools activists need at the local level but often don't have until the election is on them. I haven't seen any for Mississauga. Were they done? Second questions: can census demographic information be attached to these maps?
Krago, great work on these maps. There are tools activists need at the local level but often don't have until the election is on them. I haven't seen any for Mississauga. Were they done? Second questions: can census demographic information be attached to these maps?
There is an even bigger keener than me who has prepared poll-by-poll Google Maps for every riding. You can find them here.
Looking at the present Vancouver map, if we were to add one new seat I think it could be a federal "Vancouver-Fairview-Shaughnessy" type riding. Given the population growth in Yaletown and South False Creek, we could perhaps clip off:
- The section of Vancouver-Centre south of False Creek
- The section of Vancouver-Kingsway west of Ontario St
- The section of Vancouver-Quadra east of Arbutus and north of 41st St
- Perhaps a small section of Vancouver South
and paste that into a new riding. Possibly bump the boundary between East and Kingsway north a little bit to balance out the population.
Since when did Vancouver need ANOTHER Liberal riding? Aside from making the NDP a tad more viable in Centre, I don't see any good coming from this proposal.
The best thing, in terms of boundaries, for the NDP in Greater Vancouver would be to a late 80s-style redistribution:
1. Move Centre's eastern boundary to Main and remove Kits Point and the area west of Burrard.
2. Move Kingsway's northern boundary to 12th.
3. Remove the eastern strip of Kingsway and South and give it to a Burnaby riding.
4. Move more of New West into the Coquitlam riding so that favourable areas can be transferred to the PoCo riding to knock off Moore. Or, alternately, move part of New West to Surrey-North and transfer favourable territory into Port Kells to knock off Grewal.
That would gain us Vancouver-Centre and possibly either Fleetwood or PoCo.
But how does that actually accomplish the creation of one new riding for the city of Vancouver? It sounds like you are just moving boundaries without creating a riding. Is the purpose of this thread to make up scenarios that benefit the NDP, or to make realistic scenarios that would be likely outcomes of a redistricting?
I don't particularly care about whether this creates a Liberal riding or not. Redistricting is supposed to be non-partisan. To some extent there will always be a component of how likely this is to benefit one party versus the other, but it really comes down to whether it represents a coherent community for the sake of elections. There is no sure bet that a new riding would go to the weakened Liberal party. And in any case, I'm more focused on diluting the Conservative represenation in BC. :P
I do think that lopping off Vancouver Centre south of False Creek could be just the kick needed to pull it away from Hedy Fry, not to mention running a viable candidate. If she even runs again in 4 years.
I do think that lopping off Vancouver Centre south of False Creek could be just the kick needed to pull it away from Hedy Fry, not to mention running a viable candidate. If she even runs again in 4 years.
I'm not so sure about that...the NDP doesn't actually do any worse in the parts of Van Centrre that are south of False Creek than it does north of False Creek. In fact the really bad areas for the NDP in that riding are the new luxury condo areas of Yaletown and Coal harbour - both north of False Creek!
I did want to go back and address another of Stuart's thoughts though:
StuartACParker wrote:
1. Move Centre's eastern boundary to Main and remove Kits Point and the area west of Burrard.
Politically I have no objection to splitting the DTES like that. Two MPs raise more awareness than one. And even if Hedy Fry kept the riding I would trust her to be a good advocate. She and Libby Davies, across party lines, seem to have a good working relationship. The problem is more pragmatic.
I worked as a Vancouver East DRO during this election, and although I was not at a DTES polling station, I trained with some of the staff who ultimately would be. They go through significant lengths to make sure that there are ways for homeless folks in the riding to vote. For example, if you don't have a permanent home but there is a soup kitchen you go to regularly, you can make that your place of "residence" for the sake of the vote.
The fact that all these services in the DTES are encapsulated by the Vancouver East riding is helpful in this respect. I think it would be a logistical minefield to shift that boundary over and split the DTES, because then people would be arbitrarily placed back and forth in one riding or other depending on which shelter / soup kitchen / service organization has allowed them to use their address. And I would imagine if this were proposed at a redistricting consultation, this issue would be raised loudly. I could see moving the boundary over to include Gastown but not all the way over to Main.
Oh, dear. All that work, and now it's to be 119 ridings? Is the Krago Commission going to revise its report now, or wait for the bill? And then wait for the final census figures? But that's a tight time-frame:
Publication of census data February 8, 2012
Allocation of seats February 9, 2012
Establishment of commissions No later than April 8, 2012
Any early ideas where Quebec's five new seats would be created? On the island of Montreal? the suburbs?
It may be only two new seats; anyway, the biggest growth area is the Montreal suburbs. The Outaouais is also a growth area. Maybe the riding that straddles the edge of it (Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel) will become entirely within the Outaouais.
The real problem will be, how many seats do the no-growth areas lose (Centre-du-Quebec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent, Gaspésie.) Maybe three? and five new ones for the growth areas?
Any early ideas where Quebec's five new seats would be created? On the island of Montreal? the suburbs?
It may be only two new seats; anyway, the biggest growth area is the Montreal suburbs. The Outaouais is also a growth area. Maybe the riding that straddles the edge of it (Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel) will become entirely within the Outaouais. The real problem will be, how many seats do the no-growth areas lose (Centre-du-Quebec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent, Gaspésie.) Maybe three? and five new ones for the growth areas?
The news story stated that Quebec would be getting 5 new seats, so if some rural areas (where the Conservatives have their strongest support) will lose seats, won't that mean even more seats in the area in and around Montreal, where the NDP stands a much better chance of winning them?
^^ I have a hard time with any province that will be adding seats to take away rural/northern seats. Just because an area isn't growing (but isn't losing population either) doesn't mean it should lose representation, IMO. Just because the areas happen to be in provinces where other areas in that same are growing rapidly. I mean any of the Maritime provinces would not lose seats to be put it Montreal or Ontario, so why should Northern Ontario or Rural Quebec.
The North, which now has nine seats north of the French River, but adding Parry Sound, deserves 7.18 seats by population, due to stagnant population numbers and actual declines in Rainy River, Timiskaming and Cochrane. I am assuming they will keep nine by adding Parry Sound, with average populations 80.96% of the Ontario 2011 quotient. In southern Ontario, I am assuming no greater than 10% deviation from the southern Ontario quotient of about 112,191.
Here’s what I find:
Ottawa – Prescott & Russell 9
Renfrew 1
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 1
Leeds & Grenville 1
Kingston-Frontenac-Lanark 2
Hastings-Prince Edward - Lennox & Addington 2
Peterborough 1
Northumberland—Peterborough 1
Kawartha Lakes—Haliburton 1
York-Durham 15
(includes a Durham North—Georgina alignment)
Simcoe-Muskoka-Dufferin (excluding North Dufferin) 5
(includes a South Simcoe—Dufferin alignment)
Grey — North Dufferin 1
Bruce-Huron-Perth 2
Toronto 24
Peel 12
Guelph-Wellington 2
Halton-Hamilton 9
Niagara Region 4
(Niagara Falls -– Fort Erie, St. Catharines—Niagara-on-the-Lake, Niagara Centre (includes Pelham and Wainfleet), St. Catharines -- Lincoln (include 31% of St. Catharines)
Haldimand-Norfolk 1
Waterloo-Brant 6
(includes a Waterloo South-Brant North alignment)
Oxford 1
London-Middlesex-Elgin 5
(London 3, Elgin--Middlesex: Elgin + Southwest Middlesex and reserves + 2% of London; Middlesex--London: most of Middlesex and 11% of London)
Windsor-Essex - Chatham-Kent – Lambton 6
(Windsor 2, Lakeshore-Tecumseh-Lasalle-Amherstburg 1; Essex – West Kent 1; Chatham-Kent—Lambton includes 72% of Chatham-Kent plus Petrolia, Oil Springs, Enniskillen, Dawn-Euphemia, Brooke-Alvinston, and Warwick; Sarnia—Lambton 1)
Parry Sound-Nipissing
Timiskaming-Nickel Belt
Cochrane
Sudbury
Sudbury-Algoma-Manitoulin (includes Bruce Mines)
Sault Ste. Marie (includes Michipicoten (Wawa))
Thunder Bay – Superior (includes White River and Hornepayne)
Thunder Bay – Fort Frances
Kenora – West Rainy River
15 more MPs: Peel 3.5, York 3, Toronto 1.5, Durham 1, Halton-Hamilton 1, Niagara 0.5, Waterloo 1, Simcoe 0.5, London-Windsor 1, Ottawa 1, Kingston–Peterborough 1
Any early ideas where Quebec's (three) new seats would be created? On the island of Montreal? the suburbs?
I've had a preliminary look, using Quebec's 2010 figures for their 17 Administrative Regions which are the first thing any new Commission should look at, and the electoral quotient of 102,303. Montreal and suburbs likely get four more.
Other than the metro Montreal growth area, most of the regions should be pretty unchanged betwen 2010 and 2011.
I don't see as much problem dealing with low-growth areas as I expected. The biggest is Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean which has 2.67 electoral quotients. To keep its three seats, as I have no doubt it will, means an average deviation of 11.1%, hardly extreme. And then there's Maurice—Centre-du-Quebec with 4.84 electoral quotients, where five seats means an average deviation of only 3.3%.
Nord-du-Québec, with 0.416 quotients, is entitled to special consideration. However, it and Abitibi-Témiscamingue, which now has 1.426 quotients, now share two seats, for an average deviation of only 8.1%. No problem.
Manicouagan can claim special consideration. However, the Côte-Nord region has enough people for one seat, with a deviation of only 6.6%. That means adding the 12,000 people of the compact municipality of La Haute Côte-Nord to Manicouagan, but the result is to put the whole Côte-Nord into one riding, a good thing to do.
Îles-de-la-Madeleine can claim special consideration. However, it is already part of Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine riding. To make that riding match Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine region means adding the 12,000 people of La Haute-Gaspésie, again a good thing to do, making a riding 8.3% below quotient. Still, the Bas-Saint-Laurent-Gaspésie regions lose a half a seat.
Bas-Saint-Laurent should have two seats with a deviation of only 1.6% below quotient. Guy Caron will not be happy since the city of Rimouski ends up in Rimouski-Matane-Matapédia-La Mitis where he has to run against the young Bloc star Jean-François Fortin, while the rest of Rimouski county is in Rivière-du-Loup—Kamouraska—Témiscouata—Rimouski where François Lapointe will likely expect to seek re-election.
This assumes that, in the four Chaudière-Appalaches ridings (3.98 quotients), minister Steven Blaney will run in Bellechasse—Montmagny—L'Islet, minister Christian Paradis in Les Appalaches—Lotbinière—Lévis, Jacques Gourde in Lévis (an NDP target riding), and (of course) reborn minister Maxime Bernier in Beauce.
The Capitale-Nationale region will rate seven seats, as it now has.
In Mauricie—Centre-du-Quebec which rates about 4.84 ridings and now has 5.03, Shawinigan—Maskinongé—Mekinac—La Tuque is a little above quotient, Trois-Rivières—Les Chenaux and Trois-Rivières—Becancour—Nicolet are each about 3% below quotient, Drummond is 4% below quotient, and Arthabasca—L'Érable (with a Bloc MP) is 9% below.
Estrie rates 3 ridings, each an average of 1% over quotient: Sherbrooke-nord, Sherbrooke-Magog, and Estrie—Saint-François.
Jumping over to the Outaouais, it rates 3.6 ridings, up from 3.2 ridings today. Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel becomes Argenteuil—Papineau—Gatineau-est.
So now we come to the new seats: Laurentides—Lanaudière (excluding Argenteuil) rates 9.7 seats, Laval 4. Vaudreuil-Soulanges is growing so fast (the second-largest riding in Quebec, by voters on the list) it needs to shift Île-Perrot to Montreal giving Montreal 19.4, and Montérégie about 14. However, due to some of the lower density seats, I have only 46 left, about one short (not bad). Montreal (including Île-Perrot) 19 (up 1), Montérégie 14 (up from 13.2 today), Laval 4 (up one-half), Laurentides—Lanaudière 9 (up from 7.5 today), the biggest winner (Montcalm is the largest riding in Quebec.)
There is an even bigger keener than me who has prepared poll-by-poll Google Maps for every riding. You can find them here.
Remarkable. For example, I checked Pierrefonds-Dollard to see how Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe managed to win such a riding, and found a unique poll, Poll 1 on L'Île-Bizard:
CPC Evereklian 62
LIB Patry 62
NDP Blanchette-Lamothe 62
GRN Lumer 4
BQ Jolicoeur 4
And I see Pauline Marois and her husband live on L'Île-Bizard. Lonely for them; only two other Bloc voters?
And I see Pauline Marois and her husband live on L'Île-Bizard. Lonely for them; only two other Bloc voters?
I know you're being snarky; but Poll 2 had 26 votes, Poll 3 had 27, and...well, all in all on L'Île-Bizard on E-day by my calculation, the Bloc got 690 votes and 11.6%, which was well above the just-under-5% it got riding-wide...
And I see Pauline Marois and her husband live on L'Île-Bizard. Lonely for them; only two other Bloc voters?
I know you're being snarky; but Poll 2 had 26 votes, Poll 3 had 27, and...well, all in all on L'Île-Bizard on E-day by my calculation, the Bloc got 690 votes and 11.6%, which was well above the just-under-5% it got riding-wide...
I'll take your word for it. Still, the Bloc ran fourth on L'Île-Bizard; the NDP carried every poll except the one three-way tie. An odd place for Marois and her husband to live, eh? (As many Quebec commentators have been saying for some time.) I read that they are trying to sell their mansion; what took them so long?
There is an even bigger keener than me who has prepared poll-by-poll Google Maps for every riding. You can find them here.
Remarkable. For example, I checked Pierrefonds-Dollard to see how Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe managed to win such a riding, and found a unique poll, Poll 1 on L'Île-Bizard:
CPC Evereklian 62
LIB Patry 62
NDP Blanchette-Lamothe 62
GRN Lumer 4
BQ Jolicoeur 4
And I see Pauline Marois and her husband live on L'Île-Bizard. Lonely for them; only two other Bloc voters?
Pierrefonds-Dollard was a big upset, as were a couple of the other Liberal strongholds that went NDP (eg. Notre Dame De Grace-Lachine, LaSalle-Emard etc.).
The question is, will these ridings on West Island stay NDP or will they go back to their Liberal roots? They have large anglophone and federalist populations. Do these NDP MP's intend to oppose the NDP's pro-Bill 101 and anti-Clarity Act policies? Because if they don't, they leave themselves vulnerable to defeat next time around.
If I were to advise a commission on anything, I would say that instead of aiming at the 25% variation, aim at the 15% maximum. If you look at the results, this is generally what they do. I don't think there were exceptions, except maybe in one or two small provinces that are geographically spread out.
The exception for very remote areas, which means they can vary by more than 25%, should be maintained, because this is Canada. This is the way it is. Northern Saskatchewan is northern Saskatchewan. That is true for Alberta as well. You can't change that.
Mr. Michael Pal (Fellow, Mowat Centre, University of Toronto - School of Public Policy and Governance):
Quote:
At the Mowat Centre, we suggest that this bill should be amended to allow only a 5% to 10% variance, with some exemptions for ridings such as Labrador. Labrador is separated from the rest of Newfoundland by water. It only has 25,000 or 30,000 people, and it doesn't make sense to connect that riding with another riding in Newfoundland. That's the kind of riding where an exemption would be valid.
Dr. Nelson Wiseman (Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, As an Individual):
Quote:
. . legislation permits a 25% variation above and below provincial average size, when you take into account the seats allowed to each province. The Supreme Court has upheld this variation. I have no problem with it, although like Michael, I would prefer that it be narrowed, perhaps to 10% or possibly 15%.
. . with Bill C-20, which essentially constitutes an attack on the Quebec nation, the masks are off. The pseudo-federalism of openness, in which the Conservatives wrap themselves in an attempt to charm Quebec voters, is over. With Bill C-20, that has become a closed federalism, a federalism of break-up and abandonment of Quebec. We see that the principles that led to the creation of Canada, particularly the union of two founding peoples, no longer mean anything for the current government. We also see that the recognition of the Quebec nation by the House of Commons in November 2006 is an empty shell. Nearly five years to day after that acknowledgement, we are now compelled to note that it will never result in real action, as though mere recognition had closed the debate for good.
Bill C-20 dispels the last illusions. The only place that Quebec could occupy in Canada is a place of promises among others in a country that is not like it and does not take that fact into account, in a country that seeks to limit its distinct voice, that wants and is trying to build itself without it. The Bloc Québécois is not the only group that has denounced the bill. On three occasions, Quebec's National Assembly has unanimously spoken out against the federal government's wish to marginalize the Quebec nation in the House of Commons. That was a denunciation by all the elected members of the National Assembly, federalist and sovereigntist, on the left and on the right. The most recent unanimous motion dates back to April 12, 2010. It reaffirms that Quebec, as a nation, must be able to enjoy special protection of its relative representation in the House of Commons and asks the elected members of all political parties sitting in Ottawa to refuse to pass any bill that would reduce Quebec's relative representation in the House. It is clear that this call has been deliberately ignored by the majority of members in the House of Commons.
There was also some discussion on cutting six seats (two from Saskatchewan, two from Manitoba, and one each from Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.) This in turn would make it possible to cut a couple of seats from Ontario, and so on. We would still have a lot more than 308 MPs. I can't see the pain being worth the gain.
Continued from here.
I have copied the pdf files to Google Docs. Here are the links:
Toronto - 2004 Electoral Map
Toronto - 2006 Electoral Map
Toronto - 2008 Electoral Map
Toronto - 2011 Electoral Map
Montreal - 2008 Electoral Map
Montreal - 2011 Electoral Map
The new greenish Saanich-Gulf Islands - 2011 Electoral Map
Windsor - 2011 Electoral Map
Winnipeg - 2011 Electoral Map
South Shore-St. Margaret's - 2011 Electoral Map
Yukon and Western Arctic - 2011 Electoral Map
Hamilton (minus Flamborough and the rural bits of Ancaster) and Niagara - 2011 Electoral Map<
(The incredibly boring) Brandon-Souris - 2011 Electoral Map
(The far more exciting) Edmonton- 2011 Electoral Map
Lac-Saint-Louis - 2011 Electoral Map
Nunavut (and Nunavik) - 2011 Electoral Map
Calgary - 2011 Electoral Map
Lethbridge - 2011 Electoral Map
Oshawa - 2004 Electoral Map
Oshawa - 2006 Electoral Map
Oshawa - 2008 Electoral Map
Oshawa - 2011 Electoral Map
Vancouver - 2011 Electoral Map
Saskatoon - 2011 Electoral Map
Regina - 2011 Electoral Map
Brampton and Mississauga - 2011 Electoral Map
Ottawa and Gatineau - 2011 Electoral Map
New Brunswick - 2011 Electoral Map
London and St. Thomas - 2011 Electoral Map
Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge and Guelph - 2011 Electoral Map
Hamilton, Burlington and Brantford - 2011 Electoral Map
Quebec City - 2011 Electoral Map
Halifax - 2011 Electoral Map
St. John's - 2011 Electoral Map
Huron-Bruce - 2011 Federal Electoral Map
Huron-Bruce - 2007 Provincial Electoral Map
Southern Vancouver Island - 2011 Federal Electoral Map
Vancouver Island North - 2011 Federal Electoral Map
To open the pdf files, select File then Download Original and then click on the Open button.
Enjoy!
Outstanding, thanks Krago!
WTG Krago!
If you want to see a Liberal cry, show them these:
Toronto - 2000 Electoral Map
GTA - 2000 Electoral Map
Montreal - 2000 Electoral Map
these are great Krago thanks so much. do you have a 2011 GTA? or 2011 York Region?
ETA never mind had i looked more closely i could have seen that the maps inlclude the ridings in Southern York Region
Hi Krago,
Any way to get an electoral map like the ones above of all of Brant Riding? The one you have of Brantford is great but I was wondering if you might have something that gives a complete picture of that riding.
These are great but... the new format isn't nearly as clear as the old format. I don't suppose there's an easy way of changing it. What I mean by this is when you zoom in and out the quality declines dramatically compared to the old format of proper PDFs.
On the left-hand side, just above the thumbnail, you should see three menu headings: File View Help
To open the pdf files, select File then Download Original and then click on the Open button.
Ahh, I'm new apparently. Thanks!
Hi Krago,
Any way to get an electoral map like the ones above of all of Brant Riding? The one you have of Brantford is great but I was wondering if you might have something that gives a complete picture of that riding.
And please throw in Haldimand-Norfolk, while you are at it -- I'm curious to see where the NDP won polls there. Thanks in advance. (I am surprised at the number of requests that you have received in these two threads that manage to avoid using please and thank you...)
What a nice, polite young man you are! Here is your map - I even threw in Oxford for fun.
Brant, Oxford and Haldimand-Norfolk - 2011 Electoral Map
Here is the draft report of the Krago Commission to draw 124 ridings in Ontario, based on the proposed changes to the seat formula.
Proposed 124 Ontario Ridings
Krago, Teddy from the Atlas here. Mind if I transpose the most recent federal results on to the map? As well as provincial results once they are out?
The most recent federal and provincial election results are already included. Just click on one of the ridings on the map.
Very cool! Although I disagree with some of the ridings you made, and their names... BTW, Cochrane-Suprior is way too small, and I dont think would fly.
Kanata-Ottawa should be renamed Kanata-Carleton while Ottawa-Carleton should be renamed Rideau-Carleton. The last boundary commission tried to use "Ottawa" like you did, but there was public uproar about it.
I of course will be doing my own maps after the census results come in.
Ok, here are my name suggestions for your ridings
Ottawa-Carleton -> Rideau-Carleton
Ottawa-Barrhaven -> Nepean
Ottawa-Kanata -> Kanata-Carleton
Belleville-Quinte West -> Quinte
Northumberland-Otonobee -> Northumberland-Peterborough
Sudbury -> Sudbury-Killarney
Durham Centre -> Durham or perhaps Ontario
Niagara Centre -> Welland
Niagara Falls-Fort Erie -> Niagara Falls
Hamilton-Glanbrook -> Glanbrook-Stoney Creek
Middlesex-London -> Middlesex
Essex Northwest -> Essex
Conestoga-Brant -> Waterloo-Brant
Should Burlington-Esquesing be Burlington-Nassagaweya?
Anyway, I'm intrigued by how, technically, Markham South notionally became a three-way marginal in 2011...
I like your urban Belleville--Quinte West, although Stirling-Rawdon doesn't quite belong.
So your Northumberland--Peterborough is not bad, except that Millbrook has more long-standing ties with Port Hope, while both Otonabee-South Monaghan and Douro-Dummer actually contain parts of the Peterborough Urban Area. So I would leave them in Peterborough, and move Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan into Northumberland-Peterborough. That leaves the nice community of interest of Asphodel-Norwood, Havelock-Belmont-Methuen and Trent Hills, which are a single school board ward in the Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board.
The rest of your eastern Ontario map looks very good, except maybe Lanark--Frontenac which (like the present monster) includes Carleton Place with the north end of Kingston. Leeds-Grenville and Lanark share a school board and have much closer connections, but they're too big. Slice another 14,000 off Kingston, take the west 31,604 people (2006 census) off Leeds, and you're getting a nice Frontenac-Thousand Islands riding. But it needs more people. Shift Loyalist (part of Kingston CMA) into it, and add Tay Valley, and you're there. (Shift Stirling-Rawdon into Prince Edward--Hastings--Lennox and Addington.) But the result is a bit of a dog's breakfast. Is it really much better than Lanark--Frontenac? You decide.
Sorry to clutter up this thread, but the private message function didn't work.
An impressive piece of work Krago.
I have not had time to go through the entire map but it seems like the Conservatives stand to win almost every new seat except Toront-Harbour (which thankfully is where I live)
Do you have the net result as to which ridings would be gained or lost by which party?
Should Burlington-Esquesing be Burlington-Nassagaweya?
Anyway, I'm intrigued by how, technically, Markham South notionally became a three-way marginal in 2011...
This is a good point, after I looked at an old map of Halton Co. Alternatively, Halton West might be a good name for the riding.
I have fixed the Esquesing/Nassagaweya thing. Mea culpa.
The transposed election results are:
Wilf, thanks for all info. The Millbrook stuff makes sense. The new Peterborough has an estimated population of 114,000 while Northumberland-Peterborough has 104,000. You're right that the other suggestion is a bit of a dog's breakfast. What do you think about Lanark-Grenville (103,000) and Frontenac-Leeds (104,000)?
As for the PMs, I find that I get an error message every time I send one, but the message still goes through successfully. I got four copies of your PM this morning!
Clicked quote instead of edit.
This map seems to take the Bramalea-Gore-Malton seat which the NDP almost won and chops into three pieces. Is there no way to draw a notionally NDP riding in that area?
Sure there's a way to draw an NDP seat in Peel; just check out this link.
Using the 2011 population estimates, Brampton (536,000) has the right number of people for five seats while Mississauga (769,000) has the right number for seven. Adding Malton (41,000) to Brampton would require moving an equal number to Mississauga to balance populations, causing a ripple effect across both cities.
One could also join Malton up with parts of north Etobicoke for an NDP-winnable seat, if not a notionally NDP seat...
I have not had time to go through the entire map but it seems like the Conservatives stand to win almost every new seat except Toront-Harbour (which thankfully is where I live)
Toronto-Harbour in Krago's "predistribution proposal" does not look like a new seat to me -- it seems to me to be the replacement/rough equivalent for the present Toronto Centre. The ridings in Toronto in this proposal least "matchable" to predecessor ridings seem to me to be Downsview (very safe Liberal, even in the last election) and Don Valley North (marginally Liberal in the 2011 federal election).
Currently, the City of Toronto (excluding the Pickering-Scarboro E riding) has 8 New Democrat MPs, 8 Conservatives, and 6 Liberals. Under Krago's "predistribution proposal", there would 9 New Democrat MPs, 6 Conservatives, and 9 Liberals.
I'm too lazy to count the whole province. But, if we ask nicely, I am sure Krago will post the totals on notional winners under these boundaries. Pretty please?
And remember not to put too much face value into "poised to win"--not just in the event of a Liberal comeback, but also in light of the NDP now being validated as even a boomburban voting option. Or even if the Tories are favoured in the "new" boomburb seats, the NDP might have hitherto-unseen potential in those seats "left behind", such as in deepest Mississauga, etc...
I'm too lazy to count the whole province. But, if we ask nicely, I am sure Krago will post the totals on notional winners under these boundaries. Pretty please?
Are you too lazy to scroll up six posts? The notional results are:
Thank you for posting the notional results (a second time)
While it would be easy to say just take the 5,000-10,000 most Northern residents of both Sault Ste. Marie and Nickel Belt/Manitoulin ridings and put them in with Cochrane-Superior, you'd have to go pretty far south into the ridings to get that many people. Maybe the inevitable, consolidating the 4 most Northern ridings into 3 (Thunder Bay, Cochrane-Kapuskasing-Superior North, and Kenora-Rainy River), might be the best option, although a lot of people won't like that.
Also, I don't understand the uproar of the Ottawa ridings having the "Ottawa - " prefix? All Calgary and Edmonton (two cities about the size of Ottawa) have all their ridings start with their respective city's name.
I don't understand the uproar of the Ottawa ridings having the "Ottawa - " prefix? All Calgary and Edmonton (two cities about the size of Ottawa) have all their ridings start with their respective city's name.
The name of the city is still, sometimes, Ottawa-Carleton. The school board is Ottawa-Carleton District School Board. The transit system is "OC Transpo." And so on.
It has to do with amalgamation. Calgary and Edmonton didn't get amalgamated in the same way. Kanata is in Ottawa in name only, and it doesn't belong in the riding name. Same goes with Barrhaven, or the southern rural bits. Ottawa-Orleans is an exception, because they don't care as much. Perhaps it's because it was in two prior municipalities and if you go far back enough, two prior counties (making "Carleton-Orleans" a weird name)
How about re-naming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough as Hamilton West?
Wasn't Ottawa-Orleans like Toronto-Danforth, i.e. renamed at the request of the sitting member?
How about re-naming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough as Hamilton West?
Wentworth West (or Wentworth North, actually if you look at the hisotircal name for the riding) is much preferred in my opinion to the long winded name they have now. However, I'm not sure how much the word Wentworth is used by locals anymore. "Carleton" is still used by rural Ottawans, and is more approrpriate than using "Ottawa" in riding names for those areas.
And yes, Ottawa-Orleans was renamed in between redistributions. I think it had to do with amalgamation. But, "Carleton-Glouceter" was a terrible name for the riding. I don't like Ottawa-Orleans as a name either, but it's a better choice. One name I'd like for that riding (but would never happen) is Orleans-Blackburn.
How about re-naming Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough as Hamilton West?
My whimsical name for it is "West Flamduncaster"
Personally I would like to see a ban on riding names that are more than three words. Some of them are ridiculous. West Vancouver sunshine coast sea to infinity etc etc? really.
While it would be easy to say just take the 5,000-10,000 most Northern residents of both Sault Ste. Marie and Nickel Belt/Manitoulin ridings and put them in with Cochrane-Superior, you'd have to go pretty far south into the ridings to get that many people. Maybe the inevitable, consolidating the 4 most Northern ridings into 3 (Thunder Bay, Cochrane-Kapuskasing-Superior North, and Kenora-Rainy River), might be the best option, although a lot of people won't like that.
At present, alnmost all of the northern Ontario constituencies have an averge population significantly lower than the Ontario average, on the principle that "it's hard to represent remote northern ridings". What Krago seems to have done here is to make two ridings that are clearly "remote" and give them especially low populations, while raising the averge of the more "urban" northern Ontario ridings. This makes sense.
A precedent was set by the Boundaries Commission for Nefoundland and Labrador in the 1980s. Before that, Labrador was joined with some part of the "northern peninsula" of Newfoundland, because Labrador has never had enough people to comprise an "average" federal constituency, and the ferry connection was to the northern peninsula. The last Boundaries Commission said "Hey, it is remote -- let's just accept that and make the remaining constituencies overpopulated so as to allow Labrador to be a riding unto itself", at about one-third the population of the Newfoundland constituencies. To a lesser degree, the Ontario boundaries commission followed the same principle in creating Kenora federally -- it is the smallest riding by population in northern Ontario (but 60% of an average Ontario riding's population, not roughly 33% as in the case of Labrador) and has close to an aboriginal majority.
The Supreme Court has heard many cases about appropriate balancing of riding populations, for example throwing out a Saskatchewan proposal to have all rural provincial ridings with an average population very significantly under the average for urban provincial riding, because it was just much gosh darned harder to drive from one farm to another -- the fact that the Conservatives (at the time) did better in rural ridings than in urban ridings had nothing to do with it, of course -- pinky swear!
While the Supremes tossed out the Saskatchewan plan for failing to respect the intent of the "right to vote" provisions in section 3 of the Charter, they did state that special rules for representation of remote populations might be justified in appropriate circumstances.
In my opinion, Sudbury riding does not need a lower than average population as a remote constituency. But the two constituencies drawn by Krago as Cochrane-Superior and Kenora do meet that principle. I am not saying that representing Timmins-Timiskaming will be all peaches and cream (despite the Clay Belt...) -- but a riding like Timmins-James Bay is less fair to the very remote predominantly aboriginal communities located that far out.
It's a judgment call, in each case -- as the Supremes said it should be. Comments above don't seem to get that Krago is taking that principle to a logical end, and not actually creating unjustifiable deviations -- instead, they are Supreme Court-endorsed justifiable deviations, IMHO.
The name of the city is not "Ottawa-Carleton."
And how is it Ontario would go to 124 ridings without any being added to the Ottawa area, which is (proportionately) one of the most under-represented cities in Canada?
And how is it Ontario would go to 124 ridings without any being added to the Ottawa area, which is (proportionately) one of the most under-represented cities in Canada?
Well, in the present Parliament, the City of Ottawa plus the Town of Mississippi Mills comprise 7 constituencies. In Krago's proposal above, the City of Ottawa alone would be comprised of 8 constituencies. I believe that means Ottawa does gain.
In honour of provincial elections, would it be possible to request the 2006 map of Selkirk-Interlake, the 2011 map of Charlottetown, and maybe the 2011 of Prince Albert? Thanks.
Here is a slight revision to my original map:
Proposed 124 Ontario Ridings
I've changed the boundary around Peterborough (tip of the hat to Wilf Day) and added Rural % to the populations.
I've also created an alternative map for Northern Ontario that reduces the number of seats north of the 47th parallel from five to four, and keeps all of them within 25% of the provincial average.
Alternative 4 Northern Ontario Ridings
Would you be able to make a similar projection for BC and its additional 7 ridings post-redistribution?
My Ontario ridings are based on 2011 population estimates found here. I would need to find similar figures for BC.
Krago, would you be so kind and prepare a 2011 federal election map for the BC Interior? You do fantastic work and I appreciate what you have posted here!
My Ontario ridings are based on 2011 population estimates found here. I would need to find similar figures for BC.
Best I can give you is 2010; better than nothing:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-214-x/2009000/tablelist-listetableaux3-e...
Wow, Krago. Those are some of the most interesting riding maps I've seen yet, in terms of what they suggest about NDP growth potential. Great work!
ETA: Same goes for Northern BC. Interesting to see how the support appears in the Prince George ridings.
Here's my silly wild-assed guess about how BC's seven additional districts would be allocated:
One new seat
Vancouver Centre, Vancouver East, Vancouver Kingsway, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South
Two new seats
Delta--Richmond East, Richmond, Fleetwood--Port Kells, Newton--North Delta, South Surrey--White Rock--Cloverdale, Surrey North, Abbotsford, Langley
One new seat
Burnaby--Douglas, Burnaby--New Westminster, Dewdney--Alouette, New Westminster--Coquitlam, Port Moody--Westwood--Port Coquitlam
One new seat
North Vancouver, West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--etc, Nanaimo--Alberni, Vancouver Island North
One new seat
Esquimalt--Juan de Fuca, Nanaimo--Cowichan, Saanich--Gulf Islands, Victoria
One new seat
Kamloops--Thompson, Kelowna, North Okanagan--Shuswap, Okanagan--Coquihalla, Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon
No changes
Cariboo--Prince George, Kootenay--Columbia, Prince George--Peace River, Skeena--Bulkley Valley, Southern Interior
Here's my silly wild-assed guess about how BC's seven additional districts would be allocated
Looks right, except for one quibble:
One new seat
Kamloops--Thompson, Kelowna, North Okanagan--Shuswap, Okanagan--Coquihalla, Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon
Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon is not in the Interior, it goes with Abbotsford in the Fraser Valley Regional District (FVRD).
This was probably noted already, but wow to the Macleod riding just south west of Calgary. Looks like the Tsuu T'ina reserve voted NDP heavily. I wonder why? I live right across Glenmore Trail/Highway 8 from the reserve but haven't gotten to know my neighbours.
Wilf, these aren't intended to be BC regions. Who in their right mind would have a region that split Nanaimo in half?
These are areas that would - based on estimates of estimates of population - receive additional seats if BC is allocated seven additional ridings. Since Chilliwack--Fraser Canyon is on the western end of its particular area, it could lose territory in the Fraser Canyon area to an adjoining seat and become more of a Chilliwack-centred ED. Capiche?
Also, if anyone would like to play this game at home, here is a map that shows how Ontario's 124 new ridings could be distributed, by county/region/district.
Hey Krago,
You're maps are great and thanks for uploading them and all but could you do a version of your Northern BC Interior Map that focuses more closely on Prince George? The giant black lines makes it so that you can't see a particularly good poll-by-poll result of the city even when you zoom to 2400%.
. . if anyone would like to play this game at home, here is a map that shows how Ontario's 124 new ridings could be distributed, by county/region/district.
Very helpful, except that Muskoka is in southern Ontario by almost every classification. The question is, should northern Ontario (including Parry Sound) get nine ridings or ten out of 124? By my estimates it rates 7.56 MPs, or nine MPs an average of 16% below quotient. You have better numbers; am I right? I suspect ten is not arguable; do you agree?
Also, does your Brant 1.29 include the 10,000 or so people of Six Nations, omitted from the 2006 census as incompletely enumerated?
The provincial government thinks Northern Ontario includes Parry Sound-Muskoka, as do Tony Martin and Claude Gravelle. But what do they know?
Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999? Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.
And what is your point about the Six Nations territory? Since they do not participate in either the census or federal elections, do you think their population should be ignored when drawing electoral boundaries? Or should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?
As for Muskoka and Northern Ontario, see:
Northern Ontario Districts as defined by Ontario's Ministry of Northern Development, Mines and Forestry
http://www.mndmf.gov.on.ca/nohfc/northern_ontario_districts_e.asp
Growth Plan for Northern Ontario
https://www.placestogrow.ca/images/pdfs/GPNO-final.pdf
the Northern Ontario Energy Credit
http://www.rev.gov.on.ca/en/credit/noec/index.html
I could continue. For Ontario elections, Muskoka and Parry Sound were separate districts until Mike Harris shrank the House in 1999.
For school boards, Muskoka is in Trillium Lakelands District School Board along with the City of Kawartha Lakes and Haliburton County, and is in the Central East Region of OPSBA. Parry Sound is in Near North District School Board along with North Bay and Nipissing, and is in the Northern Ontario region of OPSBA.
For ther Local Health Integration Networks, Parry Sound is in North East, Muskoka is in "North Simcoe Muskoka." http://www.lhins.on.ca/FindYourLHIN.aspx?ekmensel=e2f22c9a_72_254_btnlin...
In fact I'm not aware of any institutional community of interest between Parry Sound and Muskoka, but there might be one. That's why I said Muskoka is almost always in Southern Ontario, Parry Sound in Northern Ontario. In fact, it might be "always."
Should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?
Yes.
The provincial government thinks Northern Ontario includes Parry Sound-Muskoka, as do Tony Martin and Claude Gravelle. But what do they know?
Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999? Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.
And what is your point about the Six Nations territory? Since they do not participate in either the census or federal elections, do you think their population should be ignored when drawing electoral boundaries? Or should numbers for the 'incompletely enumerated' reserves be added to the census figures, as Alberta does?
Krago, didn't you hear, Parry Sound-Muskoka is now the banana republic of Clementia. It's economy feeds from a separate trough.
Do you think Parry Sound and Muskoka shouldn't be in the same riding, where they have co-existed federally since 1949 and provincially since 1999? Regional boundaries aren't sacrosanct; there are currently five federal/provincial ridings that straddle the GTA border (Wellington-Halton Hills, Dufferin-Caledon, York-Simcoe, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Pickering-Scarborough East). I haven't noticed any mobs with pitchforks and torchs lately in Acton.
It's worth noting that the original text of Tony Martin's bill excluded Parry Sound. Many (probably most) people in the other Northern districts scoff at the idea of Parry Sound being part of Northern Ontario - but then again, when I was in Sioux Lookout a lot of local residents scoffed at the idea that Sault Ste. Marie was part of Northern Ontario, so that goes to show you there is a certain "more-North-than-thou" attitude that peeps into how people construct their identity as Northerners. At the very least, the folks I met in Sioux Lookout tempered their scoffing with acknowledgement that (with the exception of Fort Severn and Peawanuck) most of inhabited Northern Ontario is far south of northern parts of the Western provinces.
Anyhow, Martin got a lot of blowback from people in Parry Sound, which led to the change in the bill. They asserted that while there are a lot of summer cottagers, the people that actually live in the region still face the same economic struggles and conditions as others in the North, and have about the same average income (if not a bit lower, compared to Greater Sudbury).
It can be argued that this doesn't necessarily mean you're part of the North, but Tony and the rest of the caucus (rightly, I believe) felt it wasn't worth alienating these people, particularly given their comparatively small population and given the Northern boundary is so subjective. Really the concept of "Northern Ontario" has only existed for a comparatively short time in Canadian political history, given Ontario's only had its present borders since about 1905. There are two traditional definitions of what constitutes Northern Ontario: The first was embodied by the original text of Tony's bill, limiting the North to everything north of the French River. This excludes Parry Sound and half of Nipissing. The second definition is all those administrative divisions in Ontario that are "Districts" plus Greater Sudbury (which was originally just part of Sudbury District, until the most recent round of restructuring). This includes all of Nipissing and Parry Sound, but excludes Muskoka. So I would say Muskoka doesn't necessarily have to be paired with Parry Sound, and in fact, Parry Sound's claims to Northern status would be better served if the clumping of the two were ended. In any case, even with this boundary, Tony's bill was very important, because a lot of FedNor money was actually going to places like Perth County and other places that are uncontestably NOT part of the North.
And, uh, while we're on the topic, Krago, do you think I could bug you for one of those maps for Sault Ste. Marie based on 2011 results? ;)
In Northern/Southern terms, how was the Muskoka riding determined pre-1999, considering that it extended into the Midland part of Simcoe County?
Actually, four of them straddle the GTA border; the fifth (P-SE) straddles the 416/905 border. (Which is by way of reinforcing your point.)
Probably the same way most ridings are: census data. If a given coherent region doesn't have enough population to stand on its own, it's usually clumped with portions of adjoining regions that have more than enough population to constitute a single riding. Also there is a lot of back-and-forth between those parts of Simcoe and southern Muskoka, so combining them in a riding likely wasn't a big deal. Some of the Northern ridings, mind you, don't make much sense. Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing is basically what was left over after the rest of the region was carved up.
To continue about Muskoka:
For the Local Health Integration Networks, Parry Sound is in North East, Muskoka is in "North Simcoe Muskoka."
In fact I'm not aware of any institutional community of interest between Parry Sound and Muskoka, but there might be one. That's why I said Muskoka is almost always in Southern Ontario, Parry Sound in Northern Ontario. In fact, it might be "always."
- Muskoka Parry Sound Minor Hockey League
Before this debate gets too silly, let's agree that for Northern Ontarians, there's only one group whose boundaries REALLY matter. And they use the French River!- Muskoka-Parry Sound District of Freemasons
- Environment Canada - Forecast Sub-Regions Parry Sound-Muskoka-Huntsville
- Muskoka~Parry Sound Community Mental Health Services
- Parry Sound - Muskoka Stewardship Network
- Muskoka/Parry Sound Domestic Violence Coordinating Committee
- Muskoka-Parry Sound Health Unit
- Muskoka and Parry Sound Genealogy Group
- Addiction Outreach Muskoka Parry Sound
We're actually in the midst of a fight to keep our Brier curling team! it's the only sport where we have a claim to province-like sovereignty!
Prince George - 2011 Federal Electoral Map
Sault Ste Marie - 2011 Federal Electoral Map - Provincial ED Boundaries
Sault Ste Marie - 2007 Provincial Electoral Map
11, of course
Prince George - 2011 Federal Electoral Map
Sault Ste Marie - 2011 Federal Electoral Map - Provincial ED Boundaries
Sault Ste Marie - 2007 Provincial Electoral Map
And meades, since you're the only Northern Ontarian around here, do you think Northern Ontario should get 9, 10 or 11 seats at the next redistribution?
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing is basically what was left over after the rest of the region was carved up.
This. You can't even drive through the entire riding without going through other ridings, as there is no direct highway from Kap to Manitoulin or Elliot Lake.
Hi Krago, can you fix your link? I am eager to see the blow up of the Prince George map!
The links in Post #66 should be OK now.
Hi Krago, can you fix your link? I am eager to see the blow up of the Prince George map!
The links in Post #66 should be OK now.
Thanks
You can't even drive through the entire riding without going through other ridings, as there is no direct highway from Kap to Manitoulin or Elliot Lake.
Has McGuinty released his transportation policy yet?
Muskoka-Parry Sound Health Unit
What archive did you find that in? You just proved my point
Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
http://www.simcoemuskokahealth.org/Home.aspx
North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
http://www.healthunit.biz/index.asp
Muskoka/Parry Sound Domestic Violence Coordinating Committee
More archives? The District of Parry Sound Domestic Violence Coordinating Committee: http://www.townofparrysound.com/index.php?module=calendar&view=event&eve...
And there is a Muskoka Women's Advocacy Group which runs their shelters. By the way, I never mentioned the North Simcoe Muskoka Community Care Access Centre.
Muskoka~Parry Sound Community Mental Health Service
Point for you. Curiously, it is run by the North Simcoe Muskoka Local Health Integration Network. (By the way, you missed the The Muskoka-Parry Sound Poultry & Pigeon Association.)
Lesson: don't get into a redistricting shoot-out Wilf Day. That guy is bad-ass! ;-)
I was once the PEI NDP candidate in that Orange riding in Charlottetown. Ah those were the days!
I've also tried to draw new Ontario boundaries many times, but one thing I disagree with Krago on, is I can't see the North losing even one seat, given that the remainder of the province is gaining so many new seats.
I agree. The province passed legislation that the Northern Ontario ridings would remain the same while the southern Ontario ridings would conform to the redistributed federal ridings (because federally the North lost one seat, which precipitated an uproar that the provincial government didn't want to replicate). In fact, in order to kill the MMP referendum in the North, the liberals spread all sorts of misinformation that it would lead to fewer seats for Northern Ontario. That's what killed MMP in the North - not any affinity to the First-Past-the-Post sham democracy we've got going on.
I definitely get defensive at the thought of losing ridings at Queen's Park, but whether it's 11 seats or 10 seats or 9 seats, the results seem to be the same: Northern issues are always on the backburner, unless of course some corporations are trying to extract as much money from us as they can. Then the government just rolls out the red carpet.
The only attempt at a solution to this that I've seen is the NDP's plan for a legislative committee composed of all-party MPPs from the North to manage issues of Northern concern. It's definitely the closest thing to sovereignty that a major party has ever suggested in Ontario (strangely enough, considering our leader isn't even from the North any more). I think it's a good first step, but ultimately I would like to see something a little more formal that guarantees local control over the legislative agenda affecting the region and prevents the province from overriding local decision making.
Probably the same way most ridings are: census data. If a given coherent region doesn't have enough population to stand on its own, it's usually clumped with portions of adjoining regions that have more than enough population to constitute a single riding. Also there is a lot of back-and-forth between those parts of Simcoe and southern Muskoka, so combining them in a riding likely wasn't a big deal. Some of the Northern ridings, mind you, don't make much sense. Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing is basically what was left over after the rest of the region was carved up.
My question pertained more to the "Northern vs Southern Ontario" thing, i.e. I know how it was *created*; I just don't know whether it was thereby deemed "Northern" or "Southern"--unless it didn't matter at the time...
I've created an alternative map for the 12 ridings from Waterloo through to Halton, based on adding the Paris/St George area of Brant to 'Hamilton', rather than to Waterloo Region.
Alternative 12 Central Ontario Ridings
My question pertained more to the "Northern vs Southern Ontario" thing, i.e. I know how it was *created*; I just don't know whether it was thereby deemed "Northern" or "Southern"--unless it didn't matter at the time...
The last time a provincial Electoral Boundaries Commission was created in Ontario (1983), Northern Ontario was defined as roughly the area north of the French River. The actual wording is: "That the commission shall determine the population of Ontario as nearly as may be ascertained, based on the census of population taken by Statistics Canada in the year 1981, and shall determine the number of electoral districts into which Ontario is to be divided, which number shall not be less than the present 125 and not more than 130, provided that the total number of electoral districts in that part of Ontario lying north and west of the southern boundaries of the present electoral districts of Algoma-Manitoulin, Sudbury East and Nipissing shall not be less than 15; but nothing in this paragraph shall preclude the commission from establishing boundaries of electoral districts that extend across or beyond southern boundaries of the present electoral districts mentioned."
So even though the words 'Northern Ontario' and 'Southern Ontario' don't appear in the resolution, by the definition above both Parry Sound and Muskoka-Georgian Bay ridings were part of Southern Ontario.
Double post.
Alternative 12 Central Ontario Ridings
Looks great!
The last time a provincial Electoral Boundaries Commission was created in Ontario (1983), Northern Ontario was defined as roughly the area north of the French River.
Quite so. However, everything the province has done in recent years has clearly added Parry Sound to the Ontario government's definition of Northern Ontario.
Bump.
I heard on SunTV news channel that the Tories will be introducing their legislation to add new seats to Ontario, BC, and Alberta in the House of Commons next week, If SunTV said it, it must be true...
Krago, great work on these maps. There are tools activists need at the local level but often don't have until the election is on them. I haven't seen any for Mississauga. Were they done? Second questions: can census demographic information be attached to these maps?
A friend asked me to come up with a more NDP-friendly proposal for Brampton and Mississauga. Here's the new map.
Krago, great work on these maps. There are tools activists need at the local level but often don't have until the election is on them. I haven't seen any for Mississauga. Were they done? Second questions: can census demographic information be attached to these maps?
There is an even bigger keener than me who has prepared poll-by-poll Google Maps for every riding. You can find them here.
Census thematic maps can be found here.
Looking at the present Vancouver map, if we were to add one new seat I think it could be a federal "Vancouver-Fairview-Shaughnessy" type riding. Given the population growth in Yaletown and South False Creek, we could perhaps clip off:
- The section of Vancouver-Centre south of False Creek
- The section of Vancouver-Kingsway west of Ontario St
- The section of Vancouver-Quadra east of Arbutus and north of 41st St
- Perhaps a small section of Vancouver South
and paste that into a new riding. Possibly bump the boundary between East and Kingsway north a little bit to balance out the population.
Since when did Vancouver need ANOTHER Liberal riding? Aside from making the NDP a tad more viable in Centre, I don't see any good coming from this proposal.
The best thing, in terms of boundaries, for the NDP in Greater Vancouver would be to a late 80s-style redistribution:
1. Move Centre's eastern boundary to Main and remove Kits Point and the area west of Burrard.
2. Move Kingsway's northern boundary to 12th.
3. Remove the eastern strip of Kingsway and South and give it to a Burnaby riding.
4. Move more of New West into the Coquitlam riding so that favourable areas can be transferred to the PoCo riding to knock off Moore. Or, alternately, move part of New West to Surrey-North and transfer favourable territory into Port Kells to knock off Grewal.
That would gain us Vancouver-Centre and possibly either Fleetwood or PoCo.
But how does that actually accomplish the creation of one new riding for the city of Vancouver? It sounds like you are just moving boundaries without creating a riding. Is the purpose of this thread to make up scenarios that benefit the NDP, or to make realistic scenarios that would be likely outcomes of a redistricting?
I don't particularly care about whether this creates a Liberal riding or not. Redistricting is supposed to be non-partisan. To some extent there will always be a component of how likely this is to benefit one party versus the other, but it really comes down to whether it represents a coherent community for the sake of elections. There is no sure bet that a new riding would go to the weakened Liberal party. And in any case, I'm more focused on diluting the Conservative represenation in BC. :P
I do think that lopping off Vancouver Centre south of False Creek could be just the kick needed to pull it away from Hedy Fry, not to mention running a viable candidate. If she even runs again in 4 years.
I do think that lopping off Vancouver Centre south of False Creek could be just the kick needed to pull it away from Hedy Fry, not to mention running a viable candidate. If she even runs again in 4 years.
I'm not so sure about that...the NDP doesn't actually do any worse in the parts of Van Centrre that are south of False Creek than it does north of False Creek. In fact the really bad areas for the NDP in that riding are the new luxury condo areas of Yaletown and Coal harbour - both north of False Creek!
Fair enough.
I did want to go back and address another of Stuart's thoughts though:
1. Move Centre's eastern boundary to Main and remove Kits Point and the area west of Burrard.
Politically I have no objection to splitting the DTES like that. Two MPs raise more awareness than one. And even if Hedy Fry kept the riding I would trust her to be a good advocate. She and Libby Davies, across party lines, seem to have a good working relationship. The problem is more pragmatic.
I worked as a Vancouver East DRO during this election, and although I was not at a DTES polling station, I trained with some of the staff who ultimately would be. They go through significant lengths to make sure that there are ways for homeless folks in the riding to vote. For example, if you don't have a permanent home but there is a soup kitchen you go to regularly, you can make that your place of "residence" for the sake of the vote.
The fact that all these services in the DTES are encapsulated by the Vancouver East riding is helpful in this respect. I think it would be a logistical minefield to shift that boundary over and split the DTES, because then people would be arbitrarily placed back and forth in one riding or other depending on which shelter / soup kitchen / service organization has allowed them to use their address. And I would imagine if this were proposed at a redistricting consultation, this issue would be raised loudly. I could see moving the boundary over to include Gastown but not all the way over to Main.
Here is the draft report of the Krago Commission to draw 124 ridings in Ontario, based on the proposed changes to the seat formula.
Proposed 124 Ontario Ridings
Oh, dear. All that work, and now it's to be 119 ridings? Is the Krago Commission going to revise its report now, or wait for the bill? And then wait for the final census figures? But that's a tight time-frame:
Publication of census data February 8, 2012
Allocation of seats February 9, 2012
Establishment of commissions No later than April 8, 2012
http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/red/over&docume...
Any early ideas where Quebec's five new seats would be created? On the island of Montreal? the suburbs?
Any early ideas where Quebec's five new seats would be created? On the island of Montreal? the suburbs?
It may be only two new seats; anyway, the biggest growth area is the Montreal suburbs. The Outaouais is also a growth area. Maybe the riding that straddles the edge of it (Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel) will become entirely within the Outaouais.
The real problem will be, how many seats do the no-growth areas lose (Centre-du-Quebec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent, Gaspésie.) Maybe three? and five new ones for the growth areas?
Any early ideas where Quebec's five new seats would be created? On the island of Montreal? the suburbs?
It may be only two new seats; anyway, the biggest growth area is the Montreal suburbs. The Outaouais is also a growth area. Maybe the riding that straddles the edge of it (Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel) will become entirely within the Outaouais. The real problem will be, how many seats do the no-growth areas lose (Centre-du-Quebec, Chaudière-Appalaches, Bas-Saint-Laurent, Gaspésie.) Maybe three? and five new ones for the growth areas?
The news story stated that Quebec would be getting 5 new seats, so if some rural areas (where the Conservatives have their strongest support) will lose seats, won't that mean even more seats in the area in and around Montreal, where the NDP stands a much better chance of winning them?
^^ I have a hard time with any province that will be adding seats to take away rural/northern seats. Just because an area isn't growing (but isn't losing population either) doesn't mean it should lose representation, IMO. Just because the areas happen to be in provinces where other areas in that same are growing rapidly. I mean any of the Maritime provinces would not lose seats to be put it Montreal or Ontario, so why should Northern Ontario or Rural Quebec.
So, Krago, would you like to post an "Ontario 121 Map", to complement Postings #12, #43, #78, and #84 above?
So, Krago, would you like to post an "Ontario 121 Map", to complement Postings #12, #43, #78, and #84 above?
While waiting for Krago, here's a start.
Now that we know Ontario will have 121 ridings, we can have another look at boundaries.
I will try to follow districts and counties as much as possible, and District School Boards such as the Near North Board (Parry Sound – Nipissing).
We have some handy 2011 population estimates by districts and counties from the Ontario government:
http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/table6.html
The North, which now has nine seats north of the French River, but adding Parry Sound, deserves 7.18 seats by population, due to stagnant population numbers and actual declines in Rainy River, Timiskaming and Cochrane. I am assuming they will keep nine by adding Parry Sound, with average populations 80.96% of the Ontario 2011 quotient. In southern Ontario, I am assuming no greater than 10% deviation from the southern Ontario quotient of about 112,191.
Here’s what I find:
Ottawa – Prescott & Russell 9
Renfrew 1
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 1
Leeds & Grenville 1
Kingston-Frontenac-Lanark 2
Hastings-Prince Edward - Lennox & Addington 2
Peterborough 1
Northumberland—Peterborough 1
Kawartha Lakes—Haliburton 1
York-Durham 15
(includes a Durham North—Georgina alignment)
Simcoe-Muskoka-Dufferin (excluding North Dufferin) 5
(includes a South Simcoe—Dufferin alignment)
Grey — North Dufferin 1
Bruce-Huron-Perth 2
Toronto 24
Peel 12
Guelph-Wellington 2
Halton-Hamilton 9
Niagara Region 4
(Niagara Falls -– Fort Erie, St. Catharines—Niagara-on-the-Lake, Niagara Centre (includes Pelham and Wainfleet), St. Catharines -- Lincoln (include 31% of St. Catharines)
Haldimand-Norfolk 1
Waterloo-Brant 6
(includes a Waterloo South-Brant North alignment)
Oxford 1
London-Middlesex-Elgin 5
(London 3, Elgin--Middlesex: Elgin + Southwest Middlesex and reserves + 2% of London; Middlesex--London: most of Middlesex and 11% of London)
Windsor-Essex - Chatham-Kent – Lambton 6
(Windsor 2, Lakeshore-Tecumseh-Lasalle-Amherstburg 1; Essex – West Kent 1; Chatham-Kent—Lambton includes 72% of Chatham-Kent plus Petrolia, Oil Springs, Enniskillen, Dawn-Euphemia, Brooke-Alvinston, and Warwick; Sarnia—Lambton 1)
Parry Sound-Nipissing
Timiskaming-Nickel Belt
Cochrane
Sudbury
Sudbury-Algoma-Manitoulin (includes Bruce Mines)
Sault Ste. Marie (includes Michipicoten (Wawa))
Thunder Bay – Superior (includes White River and Hornepayne)
Thunder Bay – Fort Frances
Kenora – West Rainy River
15 more MPs: Peel 3.5, York 3, Toronto 1.5, Durham 1, Halton-Hamilton 1, Niagara 0.5, Waterloo 1, Simcoe 0.5, London-Windsor 1, Ottawa 1, Kingston–Peterborough 1
What software or program are you using to make your maps?
Also, if you ever have time and can get around to it, how about these maps:
Newfoundland & Labrador
Cape Breton
Kenora
Simcoe/Grey/Dufferin counties
Peterborough & area
Kingston & area
Northern Saskatchewan
BC Interior
Any early ideas where Quebec's (three) new seats would be created? On the island of Montreal? the suburbs?
I've had a preliminary look, using Quebec's 2010 figures for their 17 Administrative Regions which are the first thing any new Commission should look at, and the electoral quotient of 102,303. Montreal and suburbs likely get four more.
http://www.stat.gouv.qc.ca/donstat/societe/demographie/dons_regnl/region...
Other than the metro Montreal growth area, most of the regions should be pretty unchanged betwen 2010 and 2011.
I don't see as much problem dealing with low-growth areas as I expected. The biggest is Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean which has 2.67 electoral quotients. To keep its three seats, as I have no doubt it will, means an average deviation of 11.1%, hardly extreme. And then there's Maurice—Centre-du-Quebec with 4.84 electoral quotients, where five seats means an average deviation of only 3.3%.
Nord-du-Québec, with 0.416 quotients, is entitled to special consideration. However, it and Abitibi-Témiscamingue, which now has 1.426 quotients, now share two seats, for an average deviation of only 8.1%. No problem.
Manicouagan can claim special consideration. However, the Côte-Nord region has enough people for one seat, with a deviation of only 6.6%. That means adding the 12,000 people of the compact municipality of La Haute Côte-Nord to Manicouagan, but the result is to put the whole Côte-Nord into one riding, a good thing to do.
Îles-de-la-Madeleine can claim special consideration. However, it is already part of Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine riding. To make that riding match Gaspésie—Îles-de-la-Madeleine region means adding the 12,000 people of La Haute-Gaspésie, again a good thing to do, making a riding 8.3% below quotient. Still, the Bas-Saint-Laurent-Gaspésie regions lose a half a seat.
Bas-Saint-Laurent should have two seats with a deviation of only 1.6% below quotient. Guy Caron will not be happy since the city of Rimouski ends up in Rimouski-Matane-Matapédia-La Mitis where he has to run against the young Bloc star Jean-François Fortin, while the rest of Rimouski county is in Rivière-du-Loup—Kamouraska—Témiscouata—Rimouski where François Lapointe will likely expect to seek re-election.
This assumes that, in the four Chaudière-Appalaches ridings (3.98 quotients), minister Steven Blaney will run in Bellechasse—Montmagny—L'Islet, minister Christian Paradis in Les Appalaches—Lotbinière—Lévis, Jacques Gourde in Lévis (an NDP target riding), and (of course) reborn minister Maxime Bernier in Beauce.
The Capitale-Nationale region will rate seven seats, as it now has.
In Mauricie—Centre-du-Quebec which rates about 4.84 ridings and now has 5.03, Shawinigan—Maskinongé—Mekinac—La Tuque is a little above quotient, Trois-Rivières—Les Chenaux and Trois-Rivières—Becancour—Nicolet are each about 3% below quotient, Drummond is 4% below quotient, and Arthabasca—L'Érable (with a Bloc MP) is 9% below.
Estrie rates 3 ridings, each an average of 1% over quotient: Sherbrooke-nord, Sherbrooke-Magog, and Estrie—Saint-François.
Jumping over to the Outaouais, it rates 3.6 ridings, up from 3.2 ridings today. Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel becomes Argenteuil—Papineau—Gatineau-est.
So now we come to the new seats: Laurentides—Lanaudière (excluding Argenteuil) rates 9.7 seats, Laval 4. Vaudreuil-Soulanges is growing so fast (the second-largest riding in Quebec, by voters on the list) it needs to shift Île-Perrot to Montreal giving Montreal 19.4, and Montérégie about 14. However, due to some of the lower density seats, I have only 46 left, about one short (not bad). Montreal (including Île-Perrot) 19 (up 1), Montérégie 14 (up from 13.2 today), Laval 4 (up one-half), Laurentides—Lanaudière 9 (up from 7.5 today), the biggest winner (Montcalm is the largest riding in Quebec.)
There is an even bigger keener than me who has prepared poll-by-poll Google Maps for every riding. You can find them here.
Remarkable. For example, I checked Pierrefonds-Dollard to see how Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe managed to win such a riding, and found a unique poll, Poll 1 on L'Île-Bizard:
CPC Evereklian 62
LIB Patry 62
NDP Blanchette-Lamothe 62
GRN Lumer 4
BQ Jolicoeur 4
And I see Pauline Marois and her husband live on L'Île-Bizard. Lonely for them; only two other Bloc voters?
I know you're being snarky; but Poll 2 had 26 votes, Poll 3 had 27, and...well, all in all on L'Île-Bizard on E-day by my calculation, the Bloc got 690 votes and 11.6%, which was well above the just-under-5% it got riding-wide...
I know you're being snarky; but Poll 2 had 26 votes, Poll 3 had 27, and...well, all in all on L'Île-Bizard on E-day by my calculation, the Bloc got 690 votes and 11.6%, which was well above the just-under-5% it got riding-wide...
I'll take your word for it. Still, the Bloc ran fourth on L'Île-Bizard; the NDP carried every poll except the one three-way tie. An odd place for Marois and her husband to live, eh? (As many Quebec commentators have been saying for some time.) I read that they are trying to sell their mansion; what took them so long?
There is an even bigger keener than me who has prepared poll-by-poll Google Maps for every riding. You can find them here.
Remarkable. For example, I checked Pierrefonds-Dollard to see how Lysane Blanchette-Lamothe managed to win such a riding, and found a unique poll, Poll 1 on L'Île-Bizard:
CPC Evereklian 62
LIB Patry 62
NDP Blanchette-Lamothe 62
GRN Lumer 4
BQ Jolicoeur 4
And I see Pauline Marois and her husband live on L'Île-Bizard. Lonely for them; only two other Bloc voters?
Pierrefonds-Dollard was a big upset, as were a couple of the other Liberal strongholds that went NDP (eg. Notre Dame De Grace-Lachine, LaSalle-Emard etc.).
The question is, will these ridings on West Island stay NDP or will they go back to their Liberal roots? They have large anglophone and federalist populations. Do these NDP MP's intend to oppose the NDP's pro-Bill 101 and anti-Clarity Act policies? Because if they don't, they leave themselves vulnerable to defeat next time around.
Mr. Jean-Pierre Kingsley:
The exception for very remote areas, which means they can vary by more than 25%, should be maintained, because this is Canada. This is the way it is. Northern Saskatchewan is northern Saskatchewan. That is true for Alberta as well. You can't change that.
http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=5256072&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=1
Mr. Michael Pal (Fellow, Mowat Centre, University of Toronto - School of Public Policy and Governance):
Dr. Nelson Wiseman (Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Toronto, As an Individual):
http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=5265161&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=1
Mrs. Vivian Barbot (Interim President, Bloc Québécois):
Bill C-20 dispels the last illusions. The only place that Quebec could occupy in Canada is a place of promises among others in a country that is not like it and does not take that fact into account, in a country that seeks to limit its distinct voice, that wants and is trying to build itself without it. The Bloc Québécois is not the only group that has denounced the bill. On three occasions, Quebec's National Assembly has unanimously spoken out against the federal government's wish to marginalize the Quebec nation in the House of Commons. That was a denunciation by all the elected members of the National Assembly, federalist and sovereigntist, on the left and on the right. The most recent unanimous motion dates back to April 12, 2010. It reaffirms that Quebec, as a nation, must be able to enjoy special protection of its relative representation in the House of Commons and asks the elected members of all political parties sitting in Ottawa to refuse to pass any bill that would reduce Quebec's relative representation in the House. It is clear that this call has been deliberately ignored by the majority of members in the House of Commons.
http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublications/Publication.aspx?DocId=5275407&Language=E&Mode=1&Parl=41&Ses=1
There was also some discussion on cutting six seats (two from Saskatchewan, two from Manitoba, and one each from Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.) This in turn would make it possible to cut a couple of seats from Ontario, and so on. We would still have a lot more than 308 MPs. I can't see the pain being worth the gain.
Closing for length.