Nanaimo-Ladysmith By-Election For May 6th

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jerrym

Below is the vote totals for early voting: 

  • Preliminary figures indicate that 9,004 electors voted at the advance polls in the by‑election of Nanaimo–Ladysmith (British Columbia)
  • As these figures are preliminary, they may differ from the official turnout results. 
  • The table below shows the number of electors who voted at advance polls in the current by‑election and those who did so in the 42nd general election in 2015.

Electoral District

Preliminary Number of Voters at Advance Polls in Current By‑election Nanaimo–Ladysmith 9,004

Official Number of Voters at Advance Polls in 42nd General Election Nanaimo–Ladysmith 15,957

Elections Canada is an independent, non-partisan agency that reports directly to Parliament.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/preliminary-turnout-figures-from-a...

 

 

NorthReport

Probably a good sign for the incumbent party.

Nanaimo-Ladysmith byelection advance voting falls short of last federal election turnout

Elections Canada says 9,004 Nanaimo-Ladysmith electors voted compared to 15,957 in 2015

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/news/nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection-advance-voting-falls-short-of-last-federal-election-turnout/

NorthReport

Candidates talk environment

https://www.nanaimobulletin.com/local-news/

Badriya

I just got an email from Chamberlin's campaign.  I donated money, but they are looking for people to contact voters.  The link is below.

We need Bob in the House of Commons as soon as possible. He’ll be a powerful voice for all of us across Canada who want to stand together and fight for a better future for our kids and grandkids. I’m hoping you’ll join me in supporting Bob however you can. If you have a few hours this weekend, one way you can support Bob from anywhere in Canada is by helping the campaign connect with supporters before election day by making phone calls. You can sign up to learn more about our remote phone program here:

ndp.ca/nanaimo–ladysmith-volunteer

 

Thanks for your support,

Grand Chief Stewart Phillip

NorthReport

FollowFollow @ChiefBobbyc

More

Today makes 41 consecutive days campaigning!! Am extremely grateful for an amazing Team of Volunteers who have worked tirelessly right along side me reps, MP’s, MLA’s have stepped forward tirelessly within busy sched’s

https://twitter.com/ChiefBobbyc/status/1124350067014397952

R.E.Wood

New Green Party poll puts Paul Manly in lead in Nanaimo-Ladysmith byelection

The polling was done May 1 by Oracle Poll Research, with a sampling size of 500 people in live calls within the riding, with a margin of error within 4.4 points.

According to the poll, the Greens have scrambled a 14-point increase since March and are widening their lead over the NDP that the poll suggests are losing support.

https://www.cheknews.ca/new-green-party-poll-puts-paul-manly-in-lead-in-...

bekayne

quizzical

so torn on this. i'm suspecting though the FN in the riding weren't polled.

will be  close. 

bekayne

If the BC regional samples from Angus Reid/ Campaign Research/ Forum/ Leger were correct (4 of the last 5 polls), the Conservatives would have a good shot at winning.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

bekayne wrote:

It Manly pulls off the upset, the NDP "brain trust" will be solely to blame.  There was never any justification for their treatment of him, and there is no excuse for Jagmeet not taking the time to meet with Manly, unequivocally apologize for their actions, and welcome him back to the party.

The NDP doubled down on blackballing a man who did nothing to deserve blackballing, and it appears the party may pay a devastating price for it this week.

I hope that Chief Chamberlin does prevail, but it will not be the fault of anyone but the stubborn, arrogant, paranoid party establishment types if he doesn't.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

bekayne wrote:

If the BC regional samples from Angus Reid/ Campaign Research/ Forum/ Leger were correct (4 of the last 5 polls), the Conservatives would have a good shot at winning.

BC Regional polls say very little that is useful about any parties prospects in VI ridings. The Greens will get a big boost if they upset the NDP. There is still a possibility that the Conservatives could win if the Liberals hang onto their vote and the new Racism Party doesn't take away from its their vote.

However I think it will be an NDP win with the Green's coming in second. The question with all polls is who was sampled in this group of 500. As well this Reddit thread shows some reaction to he Green's past poll dishonesty.

https://www.reddit.com/r/canada/comments/4v11hi/green_party_admits_to_de...

NorthReport

Green Party releases a poll showing Greens ahead. Ha ! Ha!

bekayne

Some people act like Nanaimo-Ladysmith is Vancouver East. In 2011 under the current boundaries the NDP would have beaten the Conservatives by only 3.9%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanaimo%E2%80%94Ladysmith

NorthReport

I wonder what impact the popular BC NDP Government will have on the by-election results. It definitely will not hurt the NDP and may well help them.

swallow swallow's picture

The polling was done May 1 by Oracle Poll Research, with a sampling size of 500 people in live calls within the riding, with a margin of error within 4.4 points.... As this mid-Island riding decides its course going forward, Monday’s byelection may prove if polls have finally gotten it right or are out of touch once again.

https://www.cheknews.ca/new-green-party-poll-puts-paul-manly-in-lead-in-nanaimo-ladysmith-byelection-557844/

Do recall the 2015vVictoria poll that showed the Greens poised to take that seat, then lose it by 10%. 

 https://thetyee.ca/News/2016/07/27/Green-Party-False-Poll/ 

NorthReport

 

Polling is frequently rigged and more often than not the Greens do less well than expected. 

3 things to watch in the Nanaimo-Ladysmith federal by-election

2. NDP machine often triumphs

In the last Nanaimo provincial by-election, a Mainstreet Research poll showed B.C. Liberal Tony Harris with a substantial lead over New Democrat Sheila Malcolmson. Yet she won by nearly 2,000 votes as the Green candidate only attracted 7.4 percent support.

Chalk it up to the powerful NDP machine in Nanaimo. It was able to identify potential supporters and get them out to the ballot box in ways that the Greens could only dream of.

The growth of Vancouver Island University has also helped give Nanaimo a more urban vibe—and urban areas, with a few exceptions, tend not to support the Conservatives.

NDP candidate Bob Chamberlin is a credible and articulate flag bearer for his party. So even though a Green party poll claims that Manly is in the lead, that could turn out to be as meaningless as the Mainstreet Research poll last January.

https://www.straight.com/news/1236886/3-things-watch-nanaimo-ladysmith-federal-election

NorthReport

Nanaimo-Ladysmith by-election results will start coming in here after 8:30 PM tonite

http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts.aspx?lang=e

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

And they are coming in...

with 8 out of 254 polls

Green-38.4%

Con-25.1%

NDP-21.6%

Liberal-10.8%

P.P-2.9%

P.C.-0.9

NCA-less than that.

 

bekayne

Greens lead Conservatives by 137, 15/254 polls in

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

The Greens may actually have a caucus in Ottawa now.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

19 out of 254 polls in, Greens ahead of Cons, 36.8% to 26.8%, Chamberlain in third at 20.7%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

25 of 254 polls in, Manly at 40.2% to 25.2% for the Con candidate and 20.1% for Chamberlin.  If Chamberlin's to pull this out, he needs to start gaining ground bigly in the remaining polls.

NorthReport

Congrats to the Greens

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

30 of 254 polls, Green 39.3%, Con 24.7%, NDP 21.3%.  Lib candidate out of contention at 11.3%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

33 polls out of 254

Green 38.4%

Con 24.4%

NDP 22.0%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

40 polls out of 254

Green 39.5%

Con 22.9%

NDP 22.7%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Anybody thinking we can call this one yet?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

45 out of 254 polls

Green 39.3%

Con 23.1%

NDP 22.7%

robbie_dee

WAY TO GO PAUL MANLY! If these results hold up and the Greens win the seat, the NDP really should hang its head in shame over how it mishandled Manly's prior attempt to seek the NDP nomination in 2015. If the NDP is actually pushed into third place that will be even more embarassing. 

It will be good for the Greens to finally form an actual caucus (with potentially more to join them: JWR? Jane Philpott? Erin Weir?). However it will bode ill for the environment, and the country, if the anti-Conservative "left" vote remains split three ways going into the fall.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

50 polls out of 254

Green 39.3%

Con 23.3%

NDP 22.9%

pietro_bcc

I would prefer a win for the NDP, but hopefully such an embarrassing result will get the NDP to reconsider their strategy for the upcoming election and move towards more specific policy rather than values (but I doubt this.) Losing 2 by-elections since Singh took over the leadership, both in former regions of NDP strength should send a chill down the party's spine. I fear that the NDP will continue to blissfully straighten the course towards the iceberg.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

55 out of 254 polls

Green 38.9%

Con 23.4 %

NDP 23.2%

bekayne

Will Tom Mulcair take credit?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

60 polls out of 254

Green 38.9%

Con 23.6%

NDP 22.9%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

bekayne wrote:

Will Tom Mulcair take credit?

Why would he not?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

7o polls out of 254

Green 39.4%

Con 23.9%

NDP 22.4%

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

75 polls out of 254

Green 39.0%

Con 24.2%

NDP 22.4%

pietro_bcc

What does this by-election have to do with Tom Mulcair, he isn't the leader of the NDP.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

This is a deep injustice to Chief Chamberlin-he is taking the defeat that people of conscience in this riding have wanted to inflict on the NDP ever since it unjustly blocked Manly from seeking the NDP nomination here.  If Singh had only issued an public admission that the party was wrong to do that and apologized to Manly for the way Mulcair's fixers treated, neither the NDP nor its candidate-a man entirely unconnected with that decision-would be experiencing this electoral humiliation tonight.

It raises real questions about whether the NDP can elect much of anyone in the next election.  The caucus might well be down to Niki Ashton, Svend Robinson and Charlie Angus.

jerrym

pietro_bcc wrote:

What does this by-election have to do with Tom Mulcair, he isn't the leader of the NDP.

Mulcair rejected Manly as a NDP candidate because Manly supported BDS against Israel. Mulcair's wife is Jewish. 

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/ndp-supporter-says-he-was-spurne...

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

100 out of 254 polls:

Green 38.7%

Con 24.0%

NDP 22.8%

robbie_dee

pietro_bcc wrote:

What does this by-election have to do with Tom Mulcair, he isn't the leader of the NDP.

I assume bekayne is referring to Mulcair's role in blocking Paul Manly (son of former NDP MP Jim Manly) from seeking the NDP nomination in 2015 on dubious grounds, pushing Manly over to the Greens.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

robbie_dee wrote:

pietro_bcc wrote:

What does this by-election have to do with Tom Mulcair, he isn't the leader of the NDP.

I assume bekayne is referring to Mulcair's role in blocking Paul Manly (son of former NDP MP Jim Manly) from seeking the NDP nomination in 2015 on dubious grounds, pushing Manly over to the Greens.

With that choice, Mulcair made it clear that he'd rather see the party wiped out than allow any independence from the Likud line on Israel/Palestine.

Singh could have called Manly into his office, apologized, admitted the wrong and allowed Manly back in to seek any NDP nomination he wanted.  Why they hell didn't he do that?  He had nothing to lose.

Now,  it's likely impossible for the NDP to do well anywhere in the country at the next election, and there's a good chance it coule be wiped out on Vancouver Island.   And in the name of, in the defense of, in the service of...well, what?

robbie_dee

jerrym wrote:

pietro_bcc wrote:

What does this by-election have to do with Tom Mulcair, he isn't the leader of the NDP.

Mulcair rejected Manly as a NDP candidate because Manly supported BDS against Israel. Mulcair's wife is Jewish. 

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/ndp-supporter-says-he-was-spurne...

It was actually Paul's dad, former NDP MP Jim Manly, who was publicly supporting BDS at the time. Paul spoke out mainly in support of his father after his father was detailed by Israeli authorities. Also I'm not totally sure why you throw out there that Mulcair's wife is Jewish. It was Mulcair's decision. Mulcair's wife's religion/ethnicity may well have played a role in how they each came to their own views on Palestine, but there are many Jewish supporters of BDS as well. Probably not enough to make it a winning issue in Mulcair's former riding of Outremont, though.

Aristotleded24

robbie_dee wrote:
WAY TO GO PAUL MANLY! If these results hold up and the Greens win the seat, the NDP really should hang its head in shame over how it mishandled Manly's prior attempt to seek the NDP nomination in 2015. If the NDP is actually pushed into third place that will be even more embarassing.

I suspect that many NDP voters going to Manly in order to send a message to their party establishment is a big reason why we are seeing the numbers we are seeing here tonight.

As for what the numbers mean? With half the polls in, unless there is a real strange geographic anomaly to the polls that are coming in, no way the NDP comes back to take the seat from this far back.

The NDP screwed up big time. It is clear that the people of Nanaimo-Ladysmith respect Manly and want him to be their MP. The NDP could have had the seat had they treated his run with respect. Now that's gone, and with the overall trends, this looks like it will become another safe Green seat out of reach for the NDP rather quickly.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

120 out of 254 polls

Green 38.2%

Con 24.3%

NDP 22.7%

(Lib 10.8%, if anyone still CARES how they're doing tonight).

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

130 polls out of 254

Green 38.3%

Con 24.5%

NDP 22.7%

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:
Singh could have called Manly into his office, apologized, admitted the wrong and allowed Manly back in to seek any NDP nomination he wanted.  Why they hell didn't he do that?  He had nothing to lose.

I think Manly had already committed to the Greens by then. Unless you're a completely opportunistic sleazebag, running for a political party takes a great deal of personal investment. Once you feel the need to switch parties to stay true to your principles, you're essentially walking out a door that has a one-way exit. You're correct that someone in the NDP could have reached out to him and apologized, but I don't think that would have made any difference anyways.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

135 polls out of 254

Green 38.2%

Con 24.4%

NDP 22.6%

 

robbie_dee

Aristotleded24 wrote:

robbie_dee wrote:
WAY TO GO PAUL MANLY! If these results hold up and the Greens win the seat, the NDP really should hang its head in shame over how it mishandled Manly's prior attempt to seek the NDP nomination in 2015. If the NDP is actually pushed into third place that will be even more embarassing.

I suspect that many NDP voters going to Manly in order to send a message to their party establishment is a big reason why we are seeing the numbers we are seeing here tonight.

As for what the numbers mean? With half the polls in, unless there is a real strange geographic anomaly to the polls that are coming in, no way the NDP comes back to take the seat from this far back.

The NDP screwed up big time. It is clear that the people of Nanaimo-Ladysmith respect Manly and want him to be their MP. The NDP could have had the seat had they treated his run with respect. Now that's gone, and with the overall trends, this looks like it will become another safe Green seat out of reach for the NDP rather quickly.

I wonder what Erin Weir is thinking about this result.

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